Dan HuotAll right, well, hello everybody and welcome. Hanging out, I got Elon and Ian Dahl with our Starlink team. Figured we’d check in. It’s been a typical SpaceX year. Launched a brand new vehicle, acquired XAI, now SpaceX AI, announced a Terra-sized chip building project.好的，大家好，欢迎来到这里。今天我们和 Elon 以及 Starlink 团队的 Ian Dahl 坐在一起聊聊。这一年是典型的 SpaceX 风格——发射了全新飞行器，收购了 xAI（现在叫 SpaceX AI），还宣布了一个 Terra 级芯片制造项目。
Elon MuskAnd so, yeah, never a dull moment.对，从来不会无聊。
Dan HuotYeah, never a dull moment. Typical year. And so let’s kind of— wanted to connect some of the dots on how this all feeds into making life multi-planetary, starting to climb up the Kardashev scale, maybe show off some cool new AI sat stuff. It’s kind of start galaxy-sized and bring people in with the Kardashev scale.是啊，永远不会无聊，典型的一年。所以今天我们想把这些事情串联起来——聊聊这一切如何共同推动人类成为多星球物种，开始攀登 Kardashev 尺度，顺便展示一些很酷的新 AI 卫星的东西。从银河系的宏观视角切入，用 Kardashev 尺度来带大家进入主题。
Elon MuskWhat’s the big picture?大局是什么？
Dan HuotWhat’s the big picture? What is the Kardashev scale?大局是什么？什么是 Kardashev 尺度？
Elon MuskLike how do you decide what progress a civilization has made that’s the most objective metric? That any alien species, say, visiting us would calibrate how much progress we’ve made as a civilization. And one of the most objective ways to do that is the amount of power that any given civilization has been able to harness.问题是：你怎么衡量一个文明取得了多少进步，才是最客观的指标？就算是外星物种来访，也能用它来校准我们文明的发展程度。最客观的方式之一，就是看一个文明能够驾驭多少能量。
Elon MuskAnd there was a Russian physicist, actually, by the name of Kardashev, who thought about this. And I think it’s a good way to characterize it, which is you can have— you can assess how well a civilization is harnessing the power available on the planet. That’s Type 1. And then Type 2 would be how much of the star’s power are you harnessing? And then Type 3 would be how much of the galaxy’s power are you harnessing? These are very objective and measurable numbers.有位俄罗斯物理学家，名叫 Kardashev，思考过这个问题。我觉得这是一个很好的框架——你可以评估一个文明驾驭本行星可用能量的程度，这是第一类；第二类是你驾驭了恒星多少能量；第三类是你驾驭了整个星系多少能量。这些都是非常客观、可测量的数字。
Elon MuskSo right now we’re very low on the Kardashev 1 scale. Like if you say like what proportion of our planet’s power are we harnessing? It’s a very, very tiny number. And basically we’re harnessing almost nothing of our planet’s power. Our star’s power. So the Sun is truly an immense thing. It is difficult with words to characterize just how immense the Sun is, but this gives you sort of a sense of scale.所以我们现在在 Kardashev 1 尺度上的位置非常低。如果你问：我们驾驭了地球能量的多大比例？答案是一个极其极其微小的数字。基本上我们对地球的能量、对恒星的能量，几乎什么都没驾驭。太阳真的是一个无比庞大的存在，很难用语言形容它到底有多庞大，但这能给你一个宏观的尺度感。
Dan HuotYeah, it’s a big difficulty jump going from level 1 to level 2.是啊，从第一级跳到第二级，难度的跨越是巨大的。
Elon MuskVery big difficulty jump, yes. And level 3, and we don’t even know how to do level 3, really. We’ll get there. Yeah, yeah, exactly. AI will figure it out, I suppose.非常大的跨越，是的。而第三级……我们根本还不知道怎么做到第三级。不过我们会到的，没错没错。AI 会想出办法的，我想。
Elon MuskOne way to appreciate the size of the Sun is to think about how heavy is the Sun compared to all the rest of the mass in the solar system. So the Sun is about 99.86% of all mass in the solar system. It’s everything. And then of the remaining 0.14%, most of that is Jupiter, one planet.要感受太阳的体量，可以想想它有多重——与太阳系其余所有质量相比。太阳大约占太阳系全部质量的 99.86%，几乎就是一切。而剩余的 0.14% 里，绝大部分是木星，就一颗行星。
Dan HuotSo we’re still a lightweight.所以我们还是轻量级。
Elon MuskYes. The entire mass of Earth is in the tiny miscellaneous category. We’re like a— Earth is a tiny dust mote compared to the Sun.是的。地球的全部质量落在那个微不足道的"杂项"里。地球相对于太阳，就像一粒微尘。
Dan HuotBut how much energy are we talking, like, coming from the Sun, especially compared to what we’re using here on Earth? Because it feels like—那我们来自太阳的能量到底有多少？尤其是跟我们在地球上使用的能量相比——感觉——
Elon MuskYeah. The incident solar energy on the cross-section of the Earth is roughly a half-billionth of the Sun’s power output. And the vast majority of that we cannot use because 70% of Earth is water. Technically, our planet should be called Water because it is 70% water. And I think an alien civilization visiting us would be like, why are they calling it Earth when it is mostly water?对。照射到地球截面上的太阳能，大约是太阳总输出功率的二十亿分之一。而其中绝大部分我们根本没法利用，因为地球有 70% 是水。从技术上讲，这个星球应该叫"水球"，因为它 70% 都是水。我觉得外星文明来访的时候肯定会说：为什么他们管它叫"地球"，明明大部分都是水？
Dan HuotWe’re the Greenland’s not green of the solar system.我们是太阳系里的"格陵兰岛不绿"版本。
Elon MuskYeah. A bunch of the— exactly, even we’re 70% water and then of the 30% that’s land, a bunch of it is Antarctica or Siberia type of thing. Very Northern Canada type of thing. Very difficult to— not places people typically want to live and you’re not going to get a lot of solar power at the poles.对，确实。就算 70% 是水，剩下 30% 的陆地里，还有一大堆是南极洲、西伯利亚那种地方，或者加拿大极北地区——不是人们通常愿意居住的地方，而且在极地也根本得不到多少太阳能。
Elon MuskSo the actual usable area of land where you can get solar power is quite small. Anyway, in order to ascend the Kardashev scale, or in order to get to any meaningful percentage of the Sun’s energy harnessed, you have to go to space. If you wanted to get to, say, a millionth of the power output of the Sun, you would have to increase civilizational energy harnessed by much more than a million.所以实际上能利用太阳能的可用陆地面积非常小。总之，想要攀登 Kardashev 尺度，或者真正驾驭太阳能量的可观比例，就必须进入太空。如果你想获得太阳输出功率的百万分之一，你需要把人类文明驾驭的能量提升远远不止一百万倍。
Elon MuskSo we currently use much less than a trillionth of the power output of the Sun. And a trillion is a million times a million. So basically we’re practically nowhere on the Kardashev 2 scale, practically nowhere.我们目前使用的能量，远远不到太阳输出功率的万亿分之一。而一万亿等于一百万乘以一百万。所以从本质上说，我们在 Kardashev 2 尺度上几乎什么都不算，几乎不存在。
Dan HuotSo on the Kardashev scale, we’re all still— we’re subservient. We’re nonexistent. We’re non-existent.所以在 Kardashev 尺度上，我们还是——我们还是从属的。我们微不足道。我们根本不存在。
Elon MuskWe’re like not even— yeah, we’re so— we’re not registering.我们都不算——对，我们完全……上不了台面。
Ian DahlNot even a microsol.连一个微太阳都不到。
Elon MuskYeah, we’re— no.对，完全不是。
Dan HuotAnd so to actually—那要真正实现——
Elon MuskOne microsol would be an epic, epic achievement relative to where we are right now.达到一个微太阳（microsol）的能量，相对于我们现在的位置，那将是史诗级的、史诗级的成就。
Dan HuotSomething to aspire to.值得为之奋斗的目标。
Elon MuskYeah. Yeah, that’s our goal. And like, this is, I think, both simultaneously an incredibly adventurous goal relative to where we are, and yet not particularly adventurous as a percentage of the Sun’s energy to try to achieve power harnessed being 1 millionth of what the Sun outputs.对，那就是我们的目标。这个目标，我觉得既是一个相对于我们现状极其宏大的冒险目标，同时又——从太阳能量的百分比来看——仅仅实现太阳输出的百万分之一，又并不算特别宏大。
Dan HuotAnd so to actually start—那要真正开始——
Elon MuskA microsol.一个微太阳。
Dan HuotTo actually start getting there though, we’re not just going to throw solar arrays in space, try to soak up a bunch of the Sun. Like there has to be a need. Like you want to go up there and do something meaningful. And obviously until this point in human history, like there hasn’t really been a need. What has changed to make us think that maybe now’s the time to start trying to notch a percentage point or two?要真正朝那个方向推进，我们可不是随便往太空扔几块太阳能电池板、尽量多吸点阳光就行了。我们得有实际需求。得上去做有意义的事情。显然在人类历史上的这个节点之前，真正的需求并不存在。是什么改变了，让我们觉得现在也许是时候开始尝试拿下一两个百分点了？
Elon MuskI mean, getting to a percent of the Sun’s energy?你是说，要达到太阳能量的百分之一？
Dan HuotMaybe not a percent, let’s go like, we’ll move the decimal point back to 0.1%.也许没那么多，我们把小数点往后移一位，先说 0.1% 吧。
Elon MuskI’d say you’re an extremely kick-ass civilization if you get to 1% of the Sun’s energy. And I’m like, wow, that civilization’s going to be vastly more powerful than us, to say the least.我觉得，能达到太阳能量 1% 的文明，那绝对是超级厉害的文明。我会说：哇，这个文明比我们强太多太多了，不夸张地说。
Elon MuskSo in order to start to make some progress on the Kardashev scale, we need to launch satellites to orbit Earth and capture solar power. And that avoids the need to build massive power plants on Earth and deal with cooling, because cooling is actually much easier in space than it is on Earth. You can just radiate to a vacuum.所以要开始在 Kardashev 尺度上有所进展，我们需要把卫星发射到绕地轨道，在轨捕获太阳能。这样就可以避免在地球上建造大型发电站和处理散热问题，因为散热在太空实际上比在地球容易得多——你可以直接向真空辐射。
Elon MuskAnd so what we’re proposing here and what we intend to do is to try to climb the Kardashev scale to, I don’t know, be kind of like a respectable civilization. So when the aliens— hopefully there are aliens out there, and they maybe finally decide to talk to us— we have some respectable amount of the Sun’s energy being used. Yeah. That’s not like totally pathetic.我们在这里提出的、也打算去做的，就是尝试攀登 Kardashev 尺度，争取成为一个……说得上去的文明。这样当外星人——希望真的有外星人——也许终于决定来跟我们打招呼的时候，我们已经拥有了还算体面的太阳能利用量。不至于是那种……完全惨不忍睹的状态。
Dan HuotYeah.对。
Elon MuskWhich is the current situation.这就是我们现在的状态。
Dan HuotAnd so before we start sending data centers, sending all of this to space, there are some limiting factors that we gotta get there that would traditionally make it so like this is almost impossible.那么，在我们开始把数据中心、把这一切送上太空之前，有一些限制因素是我们必须先搞定的，这些因素传统上几乎让这件事看起来不可能。
Elon MuskYeah, what does it take to scale? Yeah. So things it takes to scale are you need to have a large mass-to-orbit capability, which is what Starship will give us, that large mass. So you ultimately need to send millions of tons to orbit and beyond, and you need the power associated with that.对，要扩张需要什么？要实现规模化，你需要具备大型的入轨质量运输能力，这正是 Starship 将要赋予我们的——巨大的运载能力。最终你需要把数百万吨货物送入轨道乃至更远处，同时还需要与之匹配的能量。
Elon MuskSo if you want to put 100 gigawatts or ultimately a terawatt into space from Earth, you will at some point need a terawatt of solar, and then you’re going to need a terawatt of AI chips. So the 3 things you need are mass to orbit, a lot of solar power, and radiators, of course, and a lot of chips.如果你想把 100 吉瓦、乃至最终一太瓦的能力送入太空，那你到某个时间点就会需要一太瓦的太阳能，然后你还需要一太瓦的 AI 芯片。所以你需要的三样东西是：入轨质量运输能力、大量太阳能（当然还有散热器）、以及大量芯片。
Dan HuotAll right, well, let’s start ticking down the list. So mass to orbit, that’s where Starship comes in. Yeah. We just had first flight of V3. It was awesome. I know you were there. It was crazy to see that rocket launch. Yeah. And then like long time coming. What’s kind of— what’s Starship’s kind of purpose of being? What is it going to be doing?好，我们来逐项过一遍。入轨质量运输，这就是 Starship 的用武之地。我们刚刚完成了 V3 的首飞，太壮观了。我知道你也在现场，那火箭发射的场面真的太疯狂了。等了很久终于来了。那 Starship 存在的核心意义是什么？它会做什么？
Elon MuskYeah, so Starship is going to revolutionize space really. It’s the first rocket design that is capable of full and rapid reusability. Now reusability is the fundamental breakthrough that is necessary to make life multi-planetary as well as to ascend the Kardashev scale.Starship 真的会彻底改变太空。它是第一个具备完全且快速复用能力的火箭设计。复用性是实现人类多星球化以及攀登 Kardashev 尺度所必需的根本性突破。
Elon MuskYou simply cannot ascend the Kardashev scale unless you have a reusable spacecraft and you cannot extend life to the moon, to Mars, and to the rest of the solar system without a reusable rocket. The cost is simply prohibitive. You can’t make enough rockets. Yeah. Unless you can re-fly them.没有可复用的飞船，你根本无法攀登 Kardashev 尺度；没有可复用的火箭，你也无法把生命延伸到月球、火星以及太阳系的其他地方。成本上完全不可接受。你根本造不出足够多的火箭——除非能反复飞。
Elon MuskJust like any other mode of transport, you can imagine that if we had to throw away airplanes every time we flew, flying would be far too expensive and basically no one would be flying airplanes.就像其他任何交通工具一样——想象一下，如果每飞一次飞机就要扔掉这架飞机，那飞行的费用会贵得离谱，基本上就没有人会坐飞机了。
Dan HuotBe doing a whole lot more driving.那就只能多开车了。
Ian DahlRapid reusability.快速复用性。
Elon MuskYes. Yes. Every mode of transport is reusable without which it’s simply not viable as a transport system. So cars, planes, boats, horses, bicycles are all obviously reusable. Yeah.对，对。每一种交通方式都是可复用的，否则根本不可能成为一个可行的运输系统。汽车、飞机、轮船、马、自行车，显然都是可以反复使用的。
Elon MuskWith rockets, it’s much harder to make a rocket reusable because Earth has a deep gravity well and a thick atmosphere. And these make it just barely possible to achieve reusability with a rocket. And there have been many prior attempts to create a fully reusable rocket. And most of those attempts have been abandoned partway through because they didn’t think they could succeed.对于火箭来说，实现复用要难得多，因为地球有深重力井和厚厚的大气层，这让实现火箭复用只是勉强可行。此前有过很多尝试，想要造出完全可复用的火箭，但大多数尝试都半途而废，因为他们觉得自己做不到。
Elon MuskIn order to achieve full reusability, everything’s got to be perfect. The engines, the structure, the avionics, the choice of propellant. You’ve got to go to extreme measures for mass optimization, which is why we have the tower catch the rocket instead of putting on landing legs, which are heavy. The rocket can simply be caught by the tower.要实现完全复用，每一个环节都必须做到极致。发动机、结构、航电、推进剂的选择，全都要做到极致的质量优化——这也是为什么我们让发射塔抓住火箭，而不是安装着陆腿，因为着陆腿很重。火箭可以直接被发射塔接住。
Elon MuskAnd we haven’t achieved full reusability yet, but we do expect to achieve that hopefully later this year with Starship. And then you’ve got to achieve full reusability. You’ve got to go a step beyond that, which is make it rapidly reusable such that the rocket lands, it gets caught by the tower, gets put back on the launch stand and can be flown again without any refurbishment or laborious inspection like an aircraft. Yeah.我们还没有实现完全复用，但我们希望今年晚些时候能用 Starship 实现这一点。实现完全复用之后，还要更进一步——实现快速复用，也就是火箭落地、被发射塔接住，然后放回发射台，不需要任何翻修或繁琐检查，就像飞机一样，可以再次飞行。
Elon MuskThis is incredibly difficult. This is the first time that there’s ever been a rocket where that is possible. That’s what makes Starship so profound. I mean, it also happens to be the largest flying object ever made, the heaviest flying object ever made, the most powerful moving object of any kind. Starship V3 is more than double the thrust of the Saturn V moon rocket. By version 4, we’ll be pretty much 3 times the thrust of the Saturn V moon rocket. And we expect Starship to be flying more than once per hour down the road.这极其困难。这是人类历史上第一次有火箭能做到这一点。这正是 Starship 如此深远的原因。它同时也是有史以来制造过的最大飞行物、最重的飞行物、任何类型中推力最大的运动物体。Starship V3 的推力超过 Saturn V 月球火箭的两倍以上。到第 4 版，推力将接近 Saturn V 的 3 倍。我们预期 Starship 最终将实现每小时飞行超过一次。
Dan HuotOne of the fun facts from Flight 12, that was actually the heaviest payload SpaceX has ever flown. And that’s still just a fraction of what V3 can do.Flight 12 有个有趣的数据——那次实际上是 SpaceX 有史以来飞过的最重载荷，但那也只是 V3 能力的一小部分。
Elon MuskYes.是的。
Dan HuotI mean, once we’re flying massive amounts really rapidly, I mean, we already fly the majority of payload to space with Falcon. Do people even really understand what mass to orbit becomes once Starship is flying?一旦我们能以极快的速度运送大量货物，而我们用 Falcon 已经承担了大多数入轨载荷——人们真的理解 Starship 投入使用后入轨质量会变成什么样子吗？
Elon MuskIt’s many orders of magnitude greater than what is the case today. So even with Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, SpaceX delivers almost 90% of all Earth mass to orbit. I think we’re somewhere between 85 and 90% right now. And then most of the remaining mass I think is launched by China. And then the rest of the world, including the rest of the US, is the remaining, I don’t know, 5 to 7%.那会是今天情况的许多数量级之多。即使是现在用 Falcon 9 和 Falcon Heavy，SpaceX 也运送了地球入轨质量的将近 90%。我觉得我们现在在 85% 到 90% 之间。剩余的大部分我认为是中国发射的，再然后世界其他地方——包括美国其余部分——占剩下的大概 5% 到 7%。
Elon MuskNow with Starship, we’ll be aiming to go from somewhere around 2,500 tons a year to orbit to millions of tons per year to orbit. And to do so in a pretty short period of time. So we think probably we can get to 1 million tons to orbit per year in about 3 years, thereabouts. Starship.而有了 Starship，我们的目标是从现在每年大约 2,500 吨入轨，增长到每年数百万吨入轨，而且要在相当短的时间内实现。我们认为大概 3 年左右，就能达到每年 100 万吨入轨，靠的就是 Starship。
Dan HuotStarship is going to take care of the mass to orbit limiting factor. Yes. And then power generation. So first, and Ian, maybe you can help. People probably struggle to visualize a little bit when you say like data center in space, like we’re not going to slap engines on a building and fly it up there. Like these actually look like pretty different. And so kind of walk through how you take something that’s in a giant building on the ground and turn it into something that’s functional in space.Starship 将解决入轨质量这个限制因素。那接下来是发电。Ian，也许你能帮忙解释一下。人们在听到"太空数据中心"时可能很难在脑子里建立画面——我们不是要给一栋大楼装上发动机飞上去，这些东西看起来实际上非常不一样。能说说你们怎么把地面大楼里的东西转化成能在太空中运行的形态吗？
Ian DahlYeah, I think it’s pretty interesting. A lot of people don’t actually know what the inside of a data center even looks like, right?对，这挺有意思的。很多人其实根本不知道数据中心内部长什么样，是吧？
Elon MuskYeah. And it’s some like mythical place where the internet’s in the cloud or something.对，就觉得互联网是在某个神秘的"云"里飘着。
Ian DahlYeah, some people envision wires, some people envision boxes, but effectively it comes down to a set number of chips and the things that we need to launch into space are actually quite small when we look at it. The more challenging part is figuring out how to get the power for it. And that’s where a lot of what we’ve worked on for existing Starlink technology, the solar arrays are what we want to utilize that expertise to be able to build a satellite that can actually launch the critical components of the data center into space itself.是的，有些人脑子里是电线，有些人脑子里是一堆箱子，但归根结底就是一定数量的芯片。我们需要发射到太空的东西，其实体积很小。更有挑战性的部分是搞清楚如何获取它所需的电力。而这正是我们在现有 Starlink 技术上积累的大量经验能够发挥作用的地方——太阳能电池阵列，我们希望利用这方面的专业知识，制造出能够把数据中心的关键组件真正送入太空的卫星。
Ian DahlWe like to look at this and say, what is the actual engineering problem here? And it’s really a combination of delivering power and then taking the waste heat and energy away and sending it into the vacuum of space, as you mentioned.我们看待这个问题的方式是：真正的工程挑战是什么？本质上就是两件事：一是提供电力，二是把废热和多余能量带走，排散到真空里——正如你提到的那样。
Elon MuskYeah. Now the AI satellite is actually much simpler than a Starlink satellite. A Starlink satellite has gigantic phased array antennas. It’s got parabolic antennas. It’s got a lot of laser links. It’s much more complicated than an AI satellite. An AI satellite is essentially a lot of solar cells, a radiator, and you still need some laser links, but you don’t have all of the super complex antennas that you have on a Starlink satellite. So, given the two, the easier one to design for is the AI satellite.对。AI 卫星实际上比 Starlink 卫星简单得多。Starlink 卫星有巨大的相控阵天线、抛物面天线，还有大量激光链路，复杂度远超 AI 卫星。AI 卫星本质上就是大量太阳能电池、散热器，当然还需要一些激光链路，但没有 Starlink 卫星那些超级复杂的天线。所以两者相比，AI 卫星在设计上反而更容易。
Dan HuotYeah.对。
Ian DahlIt’s just a little bit bigger.只是稍微大一点。
Elon MuskIt’s bigger.确实更大。
Dan HuotJust make stuff bigger. Yeah. So we’ve got this — this is our AI-1, if you guys want to walk us through.就是把东西做大。好，我们来看看这个——这是我们的 AI-1，两位介绍一下？
Elon MuskYeah.好的。
Ian DahlYeah, so the first thing that we’re really looking at here is, first you’ve got to make something compelling, right? And we thought that the right place to start is around the 150-kilowatt peak power level. But as we look at the workloads with our experience with xAI, we get to actually see that we can also support about 120 kilowatts of average compute.好，我们首先要考虑的是：先做出一个有说服力的东西。我们认为合适的起点是峰值功率约 150 千瓦。但结合我们在 xAI 的工作负载经验，我们发现同时也可以支撑约 120 千瓦的平均算力。
Elon MuskThere’s a difference. Yeah. What we’re showing here is kind of a draft version of the version 1 of the SpaceX AI satellite, AI-1, I guess you could call it. And seems like a reasonable place to start. It is 150 kilowatts peak power, 120 kilowatts sustained power.两者是有区别的。我们这里展示的是 SpaceX AI 卫星第一版的草稿设计，可以叫它 AI-1。感觉这是一个合理的起点。峰值功率 150 千瓦，持续功率 120 千瓦。
Elon MuskAnd to give you a sense of what does that actually look like in terms of the size of the radiators and size of the solar panels, the assumptions here are 250 watts per square meter for the solar array and about 1,400 watts per square meter for the radiators. So the radiators — these are double-sided radiators, radiating both sides. They’re oriented knife edge to the sun. And 1,400 watts per square meter is a very achievable goal.为了让大家感受到散热器和太阳能电池板的实际尺寸，这里的参数设定是：太阳能电池阵列 250 瓦每平方米，散热器约 1,400 瓦每平方米。散热器是双面散热，两面都在辐射热量，朝向太阳时以刀刃状侧面朝向阳光。1,400 瓦每平方米是一个完全可实现的目标。
Elon MuskOver time, we think we can probably do above 250 watts per square meter and above 1,400 watts per square meter for the solar panels and radiators respectively. But this gives you a — a prism is pretty much what the satellite’s going to look like. It’s a lot of solar panels, radiator, and then everything else is pretty small by comparison.随着时间推移，我们认为太阳能电池阵列可以超过 250 瓦每平方米，散热器也可以超过 1,400 瓦每平方米。但这给了你一个大体的样子——这颗卫星基本就是一个棱柱形状，大量太阳能板、散热器，其他所有东西相比之下都很小。
Ian DahlAnd these are evolutions of things that we have actually already launched in our Starlink constellation to date.而且这些都是我们在现有 Starlink 星座中已经发射过的技术的迭代演进。
Elon MuskYeah.对。
Ian DahlThat’s really, I think, the cool part to me is that we’re looking at solar technology that we already are going to use on the V3 Starlink vehicle. So I’m really excited to then just take those and make it bigger.对我来说，这真的是很酷的一点——我们正在看的太阳能技术，就是我们在 V3 Starlink 卫星上已经要用的技术。所以我非常期待，就是把那些东西做大就行了。
Elon MuskYeah, part of what we want to convey here is that there’s not some magic that’s necessary that doesn’t exist for the AI satellites. As Ian said, a lot of this is technology we’ve already made for the Starlink V3 satellites. So we basically don’t think this is a super hard problem compared to things we already do.对，我们想传达的一点是：AI 卫星并不需要某种当前还不存在的魔法技术。正如 Ian 所说，很多技术都是我们已经为 Starlink V3 卫星开发过的。所以我们基本上不认为这是一个超难的问题，跟我们已经在做的事情相比。
Elon MuskThere would also be probably something on the order of a terabit of connectivity, of laser link connectivity from the satellite. The 150 kilowatt peak power level roughly matches what, say, an NVIDIA GV300 rack would do. So if you’ve got a GV300 with 72 GPUs, its peak power I think is around 140 kilowatts. But it’s almost impossible to get it to be at that peak power. A more reasonable operating envelope would be around 120 kilowatts average power, but it can peak up to 150. So think of it as a rack of compute in space.这颗卫星可能还会具备大约 1 太比特的连接能力，也就是激光链路带宽。150 千瓦峰值功率大致对应一个 NVIDIA GV300 机架的功耗。72 块 GPU 的 GV300 机架，峰值功率我记得大概是 140 千瓦左右。但实际上几乎不可能让它持续满功率运行，更合理的运行区间是平均约 120 千瓦，但可以峰值到 150 千瓦。可以把它理解为：太空中的一个算力机架。
Elon MuskAnd then you can connect these racks of compute to either each other by the laser links or directly to the Starlink constellations. So you can close the link with the Starlink constellation and then Starlink can then send that data to the ground using the existing KA and KU antennas on the vehicle. It also has laser links to the ground as well.然后这些算力机架可以通过激光链路互相连接，也可以直接接入 Starlink 星座。闭合到 Starlink 星座的链路之后，Starlink 就可以通过卫星上现有的 KA 和 KU 天线把数据传到地面。卫星本身也有直接面向地面的激光链路。
Elon MuskAnd this would not be at a particularly high latency. We’re talking about maybe being around 600 to 800 kilometers above the Earth, and light travels 300 kilometers per millisecond. So that’s about 3 milliseconds away, basically. It’s not very far.而且延迟不会特别高。我们说的轨道高度大概在地球上空 600 到 800 千米，光速是 300 千米每毫秒。所以大约是 3 毫秒的距离，基本上非常近。
Dan HuotWon’t worry about that too much then.那就不用太担心延迟了。
Elon MuskSometimes people think there’s going to be some high latency. I’m like, no, speed of light moves pretty fast.有时候人们以为延迟会很高，我说：不，光速还是挺快的。
Dan HuotLight moves pretty fast. It’s a tall one.光速确实很快，这倒没错。
Elon MuskYeah.对。
Ian DahlI think the cool thing also is the radiators themselves are about the same size as the existing solar arrays for the V3 vehicle, kind of in that realm where we’re flying today.还有一个有意思的点——散热器本身的面积和现有 V3 卫星太阳能电池阵列的面积差不多，大概在我们今天飞行的那个量级。
Dan HuotYeah. So they’ve got about a 70-meter wingspan. So these are fairly large. We’re talking about building a lot of them and putting them up there. But you like to say, space is in the name. There’s a lot of space up there. And so even when you’re talking thousands or even up to a million satellites, you’ve got plenty of room to move around up there.是的。它们的翼展大约是 70 米，相当大。我们要谈的是大量制造、大量发射到太空。但你喜欢说，"太空"这个名字本身就说明了问题——上面有大量空间。所以哪怕你说的是几千颗乃至多达一百万颗卫星，上面也有足够的空间来运转。
Elon MuskYeah, space is really big. So it’s not like space is going to get crowded. Space is enormous. If you zoom in close to the satellite, it looks big. But if you actually look at it relative to the Earth, these satellites are so tiny you can’t even see them. So they’re very, very tiny compared to Earth.对，太空真的很大。太空不会变得拥挤，太空是极其广阔的。如果你靠近一颗卫星，它看起来很大；但你真正把它放到跟地球相比的尺度上看，这些卫星小得根本看不到。相对于地球，它们非常非常微小。
Dan HuotAnd we have about 10,000 Starlinks in orbit right now. We’ve got a pretty good idea of how to operate just really large constellations and do it safely now, right?我们现在有大约 10,000 颗 Starlink 卫星在轨运行。我们已经相当清楚地知道如何安全地运营超大规模的星座了，对吧？
Ian DahlYeah. We are the only operator that has any experience of that scale. It’s a great thing that we have this background so we know how tightly we can pack the satellites and fly them safely. That’s the number one goal when we look at the constellation.对。我们是唯一拥有这种规模运营经验的运营方。有这样的背景积累是件好事，我们知道卫星之间能排多紧凑、如何安全飞行。这是我们在设计星座时的第一优先目标。
Dan HuotWe’re going to be building a lot of satellites and we’re going to be building them here in Bastrop, right? So we’ve got this — yeah. So we’re in that building kind of in the middle, which —我们将要大量制造卫星，而且将在 Bastrop 建造它们，对吧？所以我们——对，我们就在图中间那栋楼里——
Elon MuskYeah, we’re sitting in that building right now.对，我们现在就坐在那栋楼里。
Dan HuotThis is my first time here. The building is massive. Like you come around the corner, you see it through the trees and you’re like, oh wow. But we’re about to kind of put this building to shame, aren’t we?这是我第一次来这里。这栋楼真的很大，你绕过转角、穿过树丛看到它的时候，会不由得说：哇。但我们接下来要让这栋楼显得小巫见大巫，对吧？
Elon MuskYes, we’re going to — in fact, we already have the solar manufacturing facility. It’s under construction already. And then we will be building out the AI.Sat production building soon. And yeah, so we expect to have the AI.Sat production, the solar production, and all of that operating at some reasonable volume by the end of next year.是的，实际上我们已经有了太阳能制造设施，正在建设中。接下来我们还会建设 AI.Sat 卫星生产厂房。我们预计在明年年底之前，AI.Sat 生产线、太阳能生产线以及相关设施都将以相当规模运转起来。
Dan HuotSo if anybody wants to work on AI satellites, this is kind of going to become the hub of that. We’re also — right behind us, the machines are humming. We’re still making all of our user terminals for Starlink here. That’s not going anywhere. In fact, we’re turning on new production lines for new units, right?所以，如果有人想做 AI 卫星，这里基本上就要成为那个中心了。就在我们身后，机器还在运转，我们仍然在这里生产全部 Starlink 用户终端，这条线不会撤。实际上我们还在为新型号的终端开机新的生产线，对吧？
Elon MuskYes. In fact, these are the new Starlink terminals, which we made in much higher volume than the current terminals. Ultimately we think there’s probably going to be a few hundred million Starlink terminals out there. And then the Starlink Direct-to-Cell constellation will connect directly to people’s cell phones and enable high-bandwidth communication directly from your phone to space.对。这就是新款 Starlink 终端，我们的产量会比现有终端高得多。最终我们认为 Starlink 终端的总量大概会达到几亿台。而 Starlink Direct-to-Cell 星座将直接连接到人们的手机，实现从手机直接到太空的高带宽通信。
Dan HuotAll right, we’re two limiting factors down. We’ve got mass to orbit. Putting solar in the compute, third one’s chips.好，两个限制因素解决了。入轨质量搞定，太阳能和算力也明了了，第三个是芯片。
Elon MuskYes. So at least in the beginning, we can obviously launch the chips that are already being made. So our current reference design is for NVIDIA Rubin chips, or could be either GV300 or Rubin chips. We’ll also have a reference design for TPUs and essentially you can put any existing chips into orbit. But the current industry seems like it’s going to get to maybe around 100 gigawatts a year of AI compute. But that doesn’t actually answer the question of, well, how do you get to a terawatt? That’s why you need the terafab.对。至少在初期，我们显然可以直接发射已经在量产的芯片。我们目前的参考设计是基于 NVIDIA Rubin 芯片，或者 GV300 或 Rubin 都可以。我们也会有 TPU 的参考设计，基本上现有的任何芯片都可以放到轨道上去。但当前行业看起来每年大概能达到 100 吉瓦的 AI 算力产出。问题是，这并没有回答：怎么做到一太瓦？这就是为什么需要 terafab（太拉工厂）。
Ian DahlAlways looking a step bigger.总是在往更大的方向看。
Elon MuskYeah. In order to get to the next order of magnitude, you need a gigantic chip factory. To give you a sense of scale here, we expect that the terafab is going to be around 100 million square feet, which is 10 times the size of the Tesla Gigafactory Texas.对。要跨越下一个数量级，你需要一个巨型芯片工厂。给大家一个尺度感——我们预期 terafab 的面积将达到约 1 亿平方英尺，是 Tesla Gigafactory Texas 的 10 倍。
Dan HuotAnd what, aside from just the size — I’m going to need Starship point to point to get from one end to the other — aside from just the size, what’s going to make this unique, different from any other chip building operation on the planet?光是体量——我都要靠 Starship 点对点才能从一头走到另一头了——除了规模之外，什么是让它与地球上任何其他芯片制造设施都截然不同的地方？
Elon MuskWell, I think over time there’s going to be a lot of technology evolution with the TerraFab, but fundamentally it’s about scale. So even if there were no fundamental technology breakthroughs, you could simply scale the existing chipmaking technology with a lot of difficulty to a terawatt of chip output per year. If you look at it just from the logic die standpoint, that’s equivalent to having 1 billion chips per year with a kilowatt per radical. So it’s a billion full radical equivalent chips, each doing a kilowatt. And then you’re going to need a lot of memory to go with that.我觉得随着时间推移，TerraFab 在技术上会有很多演进，但根本上还是规模的问题。就算没有任何根本性的技术突破，你也可以——尽管非常艰难——把现有的芯片制造技术规模化扩展到每年一太瓦的芯片产出。从逻辑裸片的角度看，这相当于每年生产 10 亿颗芯片，每个基准单元消耗 1 千瓦。也就是说，10 亿颗完整基准等效芯片，每颗 1 千瓦。然后还需要配套大量的存储器。
Dan HuotA lot of people today even think orbital data centers were like a decade away.今天很多人还觉得轨道数据中心要等十年以后才能实现。
Elon MuskYeah, I think we want to try to give people a sense of the time frame we’re aiming for. People should take this with a grain of salt to some degree because this is just our best guess. So this is not a promise of what we’ll do. This is what we are going to try to do and think we probably can do, which is to get to roughly an annualized rate of a gigawatt per year by the end of next year in terms of space AI compute.对，我们想让大家对我们瞄准的时间框架有个概念。人们应该对这些持保留态度，因为这只是我们目前的最佳预测，不是承诺。这是我们正在努力去做、并且认为很可能能做到的——也就是：在明年年底之前，太空 AI 算力达到折合每年约 1 吉瓦的年化速率。
Elon MuskAnd then aspirationally scale that by an order of magnitude per year. So in 2.5 years, hitting an annualized rate of 10 gigawatts a year to space, and 3.5 years, maybe 100 gigawatts. And then depending upon what progress there is in chipmaking in the rest of the world and with the TerraFab, going beyond that to scale to a terawatt per year, which is 1,000 gigawatts — that’s twice the current electricity consumption of the United States. I think there will be an appetite for that, but we’ll see.然后以每年提升一个数量级的目标持续扩张。所以在 2.5 年内，年化速率达到每年 10 吉瓦；3.5 年内，可能达到 100 吉瓦。然后取决于全球芯片制造的进展以及 TerraFab 的推进，进一步扩张到每年一太瓦——也就是 1,000 吉瓦，这是美国目前电力消耗总量的两倍。我认为市场对这个量级会有需求，不过我们拭目以待。
Ian DahlIt’s a lot of satellites.那可是很多卫星。
Elon MuskI don’t know what it’s going to think about, but we need to do a lot of simulations or something.我不知道它会去想什么，但我们肯定需要跑大量的模拟，或者类似的东西。
Dan HuotYeah. So after we’ve worked through all the limiting factors, we’ve kind of topped out what we can do on Earth. What is the next step to try and actually notch maybe some percentage points towards becoming Kardashev level 2?好。所以在我们解决了所有限制因素之后，我们基本上把地球上能做的事情推到了极限。要真正往 Kardashev 第二类文明靠拢，下一步是什么？
Elon MuskWhy stop there? Why think small? Because a terawatt actually is very small. That’s not thinking small. So in order to get to another 3 orders of magnitude, to 1,000x from a terawatt per year, the only way that we can really see that you can achieve that is on the Moon with a mass driver. Essentially where you do local production of photovoltaics and radiators on the Moon. Maybe you bring the chips from Earth or you could conceivably make the chips on the Moon. But you need most of the mass to be made on the Moon so you don’t have to transport it to the Moon from Earth.为什么就停在那里？为什么眼界要这么小？——当然，一太瓦确实不是眼界小。那要再增加 3 个数量级，从一太瓦再扩大 1,000 倍，我们唯一能看到的实现路径，就是在月球上建造质量驱动器（mass driver）。基本上就是在月球本地生产光伏板和散热器。芯片可能从地球运过去，理论上也可以在月球制造。但大部分质量需要在月球本地制造，这样就不需要从地球运到月球了。
Elon MuskAnd then because the Moon has no atmosphere and only 1/6th Earth’s gravity, you can accelerate the AI satellites into deep space without a rocket. So you can basically shoot them into space using an electromagnetic gun, like a railgun type. It’s basically a linear electric motor is the way to think about it.然后因为月球没有大气层、引力只有地球的六分之一，你可以在不用火箭的情况下把 AI 卫星加速射入深空。就是用电磁炮，类似轨道炮那种。本质上是一个线性电动机，这样理解就对了。
Dan HuotThat’s a good thing we can show people. I mean, if that doesn’t get you excited for the future, I don’t really know what will.这倒是一个可以展示给大家的好东西。如果这都无法让你对未来感到兴奋，我真不知道什么还能让你兴奋了。
Elon MuskI’m far enough to see a mass driver on the Moon. That would be very cool.我足够老了，能活着看到月球上的质量驱动器——那会非常酷。
Ian DahlYeah. Sci-fi future. Yeah.科幻小说里的未来啊。
Elon MuskYeah. It would also mean that if we’re bringing that amount of mass to the Moon, it would mean that anyone who wants to go to the Moon will be able to go to the Moon. And I think that would be pretty cool. Yeah.对。这也意味着，如果我们真的把那么多质量运到月球，任何想去月球的人都将能去月球。我觉得那会很酷。
Dan HuotI’m going to be jumping first in line to get up there.我要第一个排队上去。
Elon MuskYeah. Everyone should go to the Moon at least once, I think. Yeah, no. Just once.对，我觉得每个人至少应该去一次月球。嗯，就一次就够了。
Dan HuotYeah.好的。
Elon MuskYou can move there if you want. You can go live on the Moon.要是你想住在那里，也可以，去月球定居都行。
Dan HuotWe’ll see. Thanks guys for chatting with me for a little bit. All right. Excited to see a whole new kind of satellite, whole bunch more Starship launches, more chips, more solar, more everything. It’s a big future, but I’m excited to see everybody at this company go out and build.我们走着瞧。谢谢两位今天和我聊了这些。好！期待看到全新的卫星、更多的 Starship 发射、更多芯片、更多太阳能、更多的一切。未来是宏大的，但我很期待看到这家公司的每个人出去把它建造出来。
Elon MuskAll right, sounds good. It’s exciting. Thanks guys.好，听起来很棒，令人振奋。谢谢各位。
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