Chris AndersonElon Musk, How are you?Elon Musk，你好吗？
Elon MuskGood. How are you?很好。你呢？
Chris AndersonWe're here at the Texas Gigafactory It's been pretty crazy out there. Thank you so much I would love you to help us, I don't know, 10, 20, And help us try to picture to build a future that's worth The last time you spoke at TED, you said that that was really You know, you can talk about lots of other but fundamentally, you want and not think that it sucks.我们现在在德克萨斯 Gigafactory，外面热闹极了。非常感谢你——我希望你能帮我们描绘，也许 10 年、20 年后，一个值得期待的未来是什么样子。上次你在 TED 演讲时说，这对你来说是真正重要的事情。你可以聊很多别的话题，但根本上，你希望我们展望未来时，不觉得它糟透了。
Elon MuskYeah, absolutely. I think in general, you know, there's a lot of discussion of like, And a lot of people are sad and they're ... Pessimistic. And I think ... this is ... This is not great. I mean, we really want and look forward to the future. We want to be excited And life cannot simply be about sort of, solving one miserable对，完全同意。我觉得现在有很多关于各种问题的讨论，很多人很悲观，情绪很低落……很悲观。我认为这不太好。我们真的希望能期待未来、对未来感到兴奋。生活不能只是不断解决一个又一个令人痛苦的问题。
Chris AndersonSo if you look forward 30 years, has been labeled by scientists as this, kind of, almost like this There's a consensus of scientists, who believe that if we haven't or offset them completely by 2050, effectively we're inviting Do you believe there is a pathway And what would it look like?那如果往前看 30 年，科学家们把现在这个时期描述为某种近乎紧急状态。有一批科学家形成共识，认为如果我们到 2050 年还没有将碳排放减少到零、或者完全抵消掉，实际上就是在邀请灾难。你认为存在一条可行的路径吗？它会是什么样的？
Elon MuskYeah, so I am not one which may surprise you. I actually think we're on a good path. But at the same time, I want to caution against complacency. So, so long as we are not complacent, as long as we have a high sense of urgency about moving towards then I think things will be fine. So I can't emphasize that enough, as long as we push hard the future is going to be great. Don't worry about it. I mean, worry about it, but if you worry about it, ironically, So, like, there are three elements One is of sustainable energy generation, There's also hydro, geothermal, I'm actually pro-nuclear. I think nuclear is fine. But it's going to be primarily as the primary generators of energy. The second part is you need batteries because the sun the wind doesn't blow all the time. So it's a lot of stationary battery packs. And then you need electric transport. So electric cars, electric planes, boats. And then ultimately, it’s not really possible but you can make using sustainable energy. So ultimately, we can have a fully And it's those three things: solar/wind, stationary So then what are the limiting The limiting factor really will be So that's going to really be And then whatever the slowest element of the whole lithium-ion from mining and the many steps of refining to ultimately creating a battery cell and putting it into a pack, that will be the limiting factor是的，我其实不是一个悲观者——这可能让你意外。我实际上认为我们走在一条不错的道路上。但与此同时，我想警告大家不要自满。只要我们不自满，只要我们对向可持续能源转型保持高度紧迫感，我认为事情就会好起来。我怎么强调都不为过：只要我们用力推进，未来就会很好。不用担心——好吧，还是要担心，但如果你担心，讽刺的是，担心本身反而会推动事情往好的方向走。总体来说有三个要素：一是可持续能源的发电，包括太阳能和风能，还有水电、地热，我其实是支持核能的，我认为核能是没问题的，但太阳能和风能将会是主要的发电方式。第二部分是你需要电池，因为太阳不是一直照，风也不是一直吹，所以需要大量的固定式储能电池包。然后还需要电动交通工具——电动汽车、电动飞机、电动船。最后，虽然无法直接靠可持续能源飞行，但可以用可持续能源制造燃料。所以最终我们可以拥有完全可持续的能源体系，这就是那三件事：太阳能/风能、固定式储能，以及可持续合成燃料。那限制因素是什么呢？真正的限制因素将是锂离子电池——从采矿、多道精炼步骤，到最终制造出电芯并组成电池包，这将是整个转型中最慢的环节，也是最关键的限制因素。
Chris AndersonAll right, so we need to talk because the key thing like, there seems to be that is kind of amazing and alarming. You have said that you have calculated that the amount of battery production is 300 terawatt hours of batteries. That's the end goal?好，所以我们得聊聊这个，因为关键问题在这里——有个数字既令人惊叹又令人警醒。你曾经计算过，转型所需的电池生产总量大约是 300 太瓦时。这是最终目标吗？
Elon MuskVery rough numbers, and I certainly would invite others because they may arrive But in order to transition, not just but also heating and transport, which roughly triples the amount it amounts to approximately 300 terawatt这是个非常粗略的估算，我当然也欢迎其他人来做自己的计算，他们可能会得出不同的数字。但要完成转型，不只是电力，还包括供暖和交通，这大约会把需求量翻三倍，所以总量大约是 300 太瓦时。
Chris AndersonSo we need to give people I mean, here we are at the Gigafactory. You know, this is one of the biggest What I've read, and tell me is that the goal here is to eventually of batteries here a year eventually.所以我们需要帮大家建立一个直觉。就是我们现在所在的这个 Gigafactory，是世界上最大的建筑之一。我读到的——你来纠正我——这里的目标是最终每年在这里生产 1 太瓦时的电池。
Elon MuskWe will probably do more than that, but yes, hopefully we get there我们可能会做到超过这个数，但是，希望能到达那个目标。
Chris AndersonRight. But I mean, that is one --好。但我是说，那还是只有——
Elon Musk0.1 terrawat hours.0.1 太瓦时。
Chris AndersonBut that's still 1/100 How much of the rest of that 100 let's say, between now and 2030, 2040, when we really need to see但那还是 1/100。那剩下的 100 倍，比如说，在 2030 到 2040 年之间——我们真正需要看到进展的时候——要从哪里来？
Elon MuskI mean, these are just guesses. So please, people shouldn't It's not like this is like some -- What tends to happen you know, best guess and then people, in five years, there’ll be some jerk "Elon said this would happen, He's a liar and a fool." It's very annoying when that happens. So these are just guesses,我是说，这些只是猜测。所以请大家不要把它当成什么精确预测，不是那么回事。通常会发生的情况是，你说个最佳猜测，然后五年后，就会有个混蛋跳出来说「Elon 说这件事会发生，但没发生，他是骗子和蠢货」。每次发生这种事都让我很烦。所以这些真的只是猜测。
Chris AndersonRight.对。
Elon MuskI think Tesla probably ends up Roughly.我认为 Tesla 最终大概会做到 10 太瓦时左右。大概。
Chris AndersonLet's say 2050 we have this amazing, you know, made up of, you know, some mixture you talked about. That same grid probably really low-cost energy, isn't it, compared with now. And I'm curious about like, are people entitled to get about the possibilities of that world?假设到 2050 年，我们有了这个了不起的电网，由你谈到的那些能源组合构成。同样的电网可能也意味着非常低廉的能源成本，对吧，比现在低得多。我很好奇，人们有没有理由对那个世界的可能性感到乐观？
Elon MuskPeople should be optimistic Humanity will solve sustainable energy. It will happen if we, you know, the future is bright and good And then it will be possible to also use It takes a lot of energy to pull because in putting it in the atmosphere So now, you know, obviously you need to use a lot of energy. But if you've got a lot of sustainable you can actually sequester carbon. So you can reverse the CO2 parts And also you can really have Earth is mostly water. We should call Earth “Water.” It's 70 percent water by surface area. Now most of that’s seawater, but it's like we just happen to be人们应该乐观。人类会解决可持续能源问题，这一定会实现，只要我们努力推进，未来就是光明的、美好的。到那时，我们还可以用可持续能源做更多事情。把 CO₂ 从大气中抽出来需要大量能源——因为当初把它放进大气时就释放了能量，所以现在要把它抽出来，显然需要消耗大量能源。但如果你有充足的可持续能源，就真的可以封存碳，可以让大气中的 CO₂ 浓度逆转。而且你还真的可以让地球上到处都是绿意。地球表面 70% 是水——我们其实应该叫它"水球"。现在大部分是海水，但就像我们只是碰巧生活在
Chris AndersonAnd with energy,有了能源，
Elon MuskYes.对。
Chris AndersonIrrigating water就能淡化水，灌溉——
Elon MuskAt very low cost. Things will be good.而且成本极低。事情会变好的。
Chris AndersonThings will be good. And also, there's other benefits where the air is cleaner --事情会变好的。而且还有其他好处，比如空气会更干净——
Elon MuskYes, exactly. Because, like, when you burn fossil fuels, there's all these side reactions and toxic gases of various kinds. And sort of little particulates Like, there's all sorts that will go away. And the sky will be cleaner and quieter. The future's going to be good.对，没错。因为你燃烧化石燃料的时候，会产生各种副反应，生成各类有毒气体，还有各种微小颗粒物，诸如此类的东西都会消失。天空会更干净，也会更安静。未来会很好的。
Chris AndersonI want us to switch now to think But the segue there, you mentioned how annoying it is for bad predictions in the past. So I'm possibly going to be annoying now, but I’m curious about your timelines and how come some things are so amazingly So when it comes to predicting sales you've kind of been amazing, I think in 2014 when Tesla you said, "2020, I think we will do我现在想把话题转向 SpaceX。不过说到这里，你刚才提到预测失误有多烦人。所以我现在可能要让你烦一烦了，我想聊聊你的时间线，以及为什么有些事情你预测得如此惊人地准确。比如预测车辆销量，你一直挺厉害的。我记得 2014 年，当时 Tesla 产量还很小，你说「2020 年我认为我们能做到……」
Elon MuskYeah, we did对，我们做到了。
Chris AndersonYou did almost exactly half a million. You were scoffed in 2014 with the Model T, had come close You were scoffed, and you actually and then 510,000 or whatever produced. But five years ago, I asked you about full self-driving, and you said, “Yeah, this very year, I'm confident that we will have a car without any intervention."你做到了，大约恰好 50 万辆。2014 年你说出这话的时候，Model T 还差得远，大家都嘲笑你，结果你真的做到了，生产了 510,000 辆或者类似的数字。但五年前，我问过你关于完全自动驾驶的问题，你说「就在今年，我有信心我们会做出一辆不需要任何人工干预的车。」
Elon MuskYeah, I don't want to blow your mind,是啊，我不想让你大吃一惊——
Chris Anderson(Laughs) What's the difference between those two? Why has full self-driving in particular（笑）这两件事有什么区别？为什么完全自动驾驶偏偏一直——
Elon MuskI mean, the thing that really got me, and I think it's going to get is that there are just so many where you think you've got the problem, have a handle on the problem, and then it, no, turns out Because if you were to plot the progress, the progress looks like a log curve. So it's like a series of log curves. So most people don't know我是说，真正让我栽跟头的——我认为也会让所有人栽跟头的——是有太多这样的情况：你以为已经把问题搞定了，以为已经掌握了问题，然后发现，不对，原来还有另一层。如果你把进展画出来，它看起来像一条对数曲线。就像一连串的对数曲线。大多数人不了解
Chris AndersonShow the shape with your hands.用你的手势比划一下那个形状。
Elon MuskIt goes up you know, and then it starts tailing off and you start getting diminishing returns. And you're like, uh oh, it was trending up and now and you start getting to these, where you don't realize And then it happens again. And ultimately... These things, you know, but in order to solve you actually have to solve real-world AI. Because what are the road networks They're designed to work and with vision, our eyes. And so in order to make it you basically need to solve Because we need cameras and silicon neural nets in order to have self-driving work for a system that was designed You know, I guess it's sort of, like, quite obvious that the only way is to solve real world AI它先往上走，然后开始趋平，回报开始递减。你就觉得，哦不，它之前是往上涨的，现在你开始遇到这些……你意识不到还有另一条对数曲线就要来了。然后它又来了。最终……这些东西，你懂的，但要解决自动驾驶，你其实必须解决真实世界的 AI。因为道路网络是什么？它们是为人类设计的，为人类的身体和视觉设计的。所以要让系统真正运作，你基本上需要解决真实世界 AI 的问题。因为我们需要摄像头和硅基神经网络，才能让为人类视觉系统设计的自动驾驶真正工作。我猜这其实相当显而易见：解决自动驾驶的唯一途径就是解决真实世界 AI。
Chris AndersonWhat do you feel Do you think you have an architecture now where there is a chance for the logarithmic curve你觉得——你认为你们现在的架构有没有可能让对数曲线真的腾飞？
Elon MuskWell I mean, admittedly but I actually am confident That we will exceed -- The probability of an accident, at what point do you exceed I think we will exceed that this year.好吧，我承认我之前也说过类似的话，但我真的有信心，我们会超过——超过人类的事故概率。超过人类平均驾驶安全水平是什么概念？我认为今年我们就能做到这一点。
Chris AndersonWhat are you seeing behind the scenes你在内部看到了什么进展？
Elon MuskWe’re almost at the point unified vector space. In the beginning, we were trying on individual images. But if you get one image out of a video, it's actually quite hard to see But if you look at a video segment that ambiguity resolves. So the first thing we had to do so they're synchronized, so that all the frames and labeled simultaneously by one person, because we still need human labeling. So at least they’re not labeled in different ways. So it's sort of a surround picture. Then a very important part So that you’re looking at surround video, and you're labeling surround video. And this is actually quite difficult to do We had to write our own labeling tools and then create auto labeling, create auto labeling software to amplify because it’s quite hard to label. In the beginning, to label a 10-second video clip. This is not scalable. So basically what you have to have and that surround video has to be with humans just being editors and making slight corrections and then feeding back those corrections so you get this flywheel eventually where the auto labeler and with high accuracy, automatically label the video我们快要实现统一向量空间了。最开始，我们是在处理单张图像。但如果你从视频里取出一帧来看，其实很难判断清楚。但如果你看一段视频片段，那种模糊性就会消解。所以我们第一步要做的是让摄像头帧同步起来，这样所有帧都是对齐的，并且由同一个人同时标注，因为我们仍然需要人工标注——至少这样就不会出现不同人用不同方式来标注的情况。这是一种环绕式的立体图像。然后非常关键的一步是引入视频，这样你就是在看环绕式视频，并对环绕式视频做标注。这其实很难做到，我们不得不自己开发标注工具，然后开发自动标注软件，来放大人工标注的能力，因为标注本身非常费力。最初，标注一个 10 秒的视频片段要花几个小时。这根本无法扩展。所以你最终必须有一个自动标注器，而那个环绕式视频的标注，人类只是编辑，做一些细微的修正，然后把这些修正反馈回去，这样你最终就得到了一个飞轮：自动标注器可以高精度、自动地标注视频。
Chris AndersonWhat you’re saying is ... the result of this is that you're of the actual objects It knows what they are, and it knows how fast they are moving. And the remaining task is to predict what the quirky behaviors are that when a pedestrian is walking that maybe that smaller pedestrian or things like that. You have to build into it你的意思是……这样做的结果是，你得到了一个对实际物体的完整三维理解？它知道那些物体是什么，知道它们移动的速度。剩下的任务是预测那些古怪的行为——比如一个行人在走路，可能那个更小的行人会跑出来，诸如此类的。这些都要内化进去。
Elon MuskYou basically need to have So what I mean by that is ... Memory can’t be infinite, because it's using up a lot So you have to say how much It's very common So if you talk about say, where you saw the pedestrian start then they're occluded by the truck. You would know intuitively, OK, that pedestrian is going to pop out你基本上需要有一段时空记忆。我说的这个意思是……记忆不能无限，因为它会占用大量计算资源，所以你得决定存多长时间。这种情况非常常见。比如说，你看到行人从某个地方开始走，然后被卡车挡住视线了，你直觉上就知道，好，那个行人一会儿会从那边冒出来。
Chris AndersonA computer doesn't know it.但计算机不知道这件事。
Elon MuskYou need to slow down.你需要减速。
Chris AndersonA skeptic is going to say you've kind of said, well, no this is the year, we're confident that it will be there like it's always been about that far away. But we've got a new architecture now, you're seeing enough improvement to make you not certain, that, by the end of this year, what in most, not in every city, but in many cities and circumstances, basically the car will be able safer than a human.一个持怀疑态度的人会说，你有点像总在说「好，不是今年，明年，我们有信心今年能做到」——好像它永远就在那么远。但我们现在有新架构了，你看到的进展足以让你认为——不是确定，而是认为——到今年年底，在大多数城市，不是所有城市，但在很多城市和情况下，汽车基本上可以比人类驾驶更安全？
Elon MuskYes. I mean, the car currently most of the time with no interventions. So it's not like ... And we have over 100,000 people in our full self-driving beta program. So you can look at the videos是的。我是说，这辆车目前大部分时间都不需要人工干预就能开。所以不是说……而且我们的完全自动驾驶 beta 项目里有超过 100,000 名用户。你可以去看那些视频。
Chris AndersonI do. And some of them are great, I mean, occasionally and scare the hell out of people.我看了。有些真的很棒，但偶尔也会出状况，吓得人够呛。
Elon MuskIt’s still a beta.它还是 beta 版。
Chris AndersonBut you’re behind the scenes, you're seeing enough improvement to believe that a this-year但你在内部看到了足够的进展，让你相信今年能实现？
Elon MuskYes, that's what it seems like. I mean, we could be here like, well, another year went by, But I think this is the year.是的，看起来是这样的。我是说，我们可能又会遇到情况，哎，又过了一年，但我觉得今年就是那一年。
Chris AndersonAnd so in general, I mean it sounds like that if you predict that something actually what we should imagine or it’s like two-x or three-x, Some things, I guess, are fundamentally harder Is there an element that you actually deliberately make to drive people to be ambitious? Without that, nothing gets done?所以总体来说，我的感觉是，如果你预测某件事，实际发生的时间大概是你说的两倍或三倍？有些事情本来就难得多，这是固有的难度。还有没有一种可能，你其实是有意设置这些激进的目标，来驱动人们的雄心？如果没有这个，什么都做不成？
Elon MuskWell, I generally believe, that we want to set the most aggressive Because there’s sort of like for schedules, where it's not going to be less than that. It's very rare But as far as our predictions what tends to happen in the media is that they will report and ignore all the right ones. Or, you know, when writing I've had a long career If you list my sins, I sound But if you put those it makes much more sense, you know? So essentially like, the more mistakes Which, if you sum up those mistakes, will sound like I'm the worst But for example, for Tesla vehicle growth, I said I think we’d do 50 percent,好，我一般相信，我们要设定最激进的进度计划，因为进度这种东西……它不可能比最低估计还快，这种情况极其罕见。但关于我们的预测，媒体通常会报道那些没实现的，而忽略掉那些对的。或者说，在写到我的过往经历时——我职业生涯很长——如果你只列出我犯过的错，我听起来糟透了。但如果你把那些错放回整个背景里，就合理多了。基本上，你做的事情越多，犯的错误也就越多；把那些错误加在一起，听起来就像是我是史上最差的预测者。但举个例子，Tesla 的车辆销量增长，我说过我认为能达到 50%——
Chris AndersonYes.对。
Elon MuskBut they don't mention that one. So, I mean, I'm not sure what my exact They're more optimistic than pessimistic, Some of them are exceeded but they do come true. It's very rare that they do not come true. It's sort of like, you know, if there's some radical the point is not but that it happened at all. That's the more important part.但他们不提这个。所以，我的预测准确率到底是多少，我也不确定。它们比悲观更乐观，有些超额完成了，但它们确实会成真。极少有不成真的情况。某种意义上，就像，如果有某件根本性的事情，重点不是具体的时间线，而是它真的发生了。这才是更重要的部分。
Chris AndersonSo it feels like seeing the progress on understanding, the Tesla AI understanding led to a kind of, an aha moment at Tesla. Because you really surprised people probably the most important going on at Tesla this year所以感觉像是，看到 Tesla AI 理解力的进展，带来了 Tesla 内部某种顿悟时刻。因为你让人非常意外地公布了 Optimus——这大概是今年 Tesla 最重要的进展之一。
Elon MuskYes.对。
Chris AndersonMany companies out there they've been working on them for years. And so far no one has really cracked it. There's no mass adoption There are some in manufacturing, no one's kind of, really cracked it. Is it something that happened in the development of full self-driving "You know what, we could do外面很多公司都在做人形机器人，已经做了好多年了。到目前为止，还没有人真正破局。没有大规模普及，制造业里有一些，但没有人真正破局。是不是在开发完全自动驾驶的过程中，有什么东西让你灵光一闪，「嘿，我们也能做这个」？
Elon MuskYeah, exactly. So, you know, it took me a while that in order to solve self-driving, you really needed to solve real-world AI. And at the point of which you solve which is really a robot on four wheels, you can then generalize that The two hard parts I think -- like obviously companies have shown that it's possible sometimes alarming robots.对，就是这样。你懂的，我花了一段时间才意识到，要解决自动驾驶，你真的需要解决真实世界 AI。而一旦你解决了真实世界 AI——本质上就是一个装在四个轮子上的机器人——你就可以把它推广到双足机器人上。我认为目前缺失的两个难点是——显然，很多公司已经证明，做出令人印象深刻、有时甚至令人惊叹的机器人是可以的。
Chris AndersonRight.对。
Elon MuskYou know, so from a sensors it's certainly been demonstrated by many that it's possible to make The things that are currently missing for the robot to navigate the real world without being explicitly instructed. So the missing things are basically and scaling up manufacturing. Those are two things And so then we basically just need and sensors that are needed People have no idea,从传感器角度看，很多公司已经证明可以造出令人印象深刻的机器人。目前机器人缺少的，是在没有明确指令的情况下导航真实世界的能力。那么缺少的东西基本上就是：真实世界 AI，以及扩大制造规模。这就是两件事。所以我们基本上只需要……以及机器人所需的 AI 和传感器。大家完全没有概念，
Chris AndersonSo let's dig into exactly that. I mean, in one way, it's actually because instead of an object which if it gets it wrong, This is an object that's engineered three or four or five miles an hour. And so a mistake, There might be embarrassment at stake.那我们就来深聊这个。从某种角度看，它其实有一个优势，因为和汽车不同——汽车如果出错，代价巨大；而人形机器人是一个以时速三四五英里行走的物体，就算出错，最多也就是让人难堪。
Elon MuskSo long as the AI doesn't take it over只要 AI 没有「觉醒」的话。
Chris AndersonRight. (Laughter) So talk about -- I think the first applications are probably going to be manufacturing, but eventually the vision is to have If you had a robot that really understood and knew where every object or was supposed to be, and could recognize all those objects, I mean, that’s kind of amazing, isn’t it? Like the kind of thing would be what? Like, tidy up?对。（笑）那就聊聊——我认为第一批应用可能会在制造业，但最终的愿景是拥有一个真正懂你家的机器人。如果有一个机器人真的理解了你的家，知道每件东西在哪、或者应该在哪，能认识所有那些物品——那真的很了不起，对吧？那种应用会是什么？比如整理房间？
Elon MuskYeah, absolutely. Make dinner, I guess, mow the lawn.对，当然。做饭，我想，还有割草坪。
Chris AndersonTake a cup of tea to grandma给奶奶端杯茶。
Elon MuskExactly. Take care没错。照料
Chris AndersonIt could obviously recognize It could play catch with your kids.它显然能认识你。它可以陪你的孩子玩接球。
Elon MuskYes. I mean, obviously, this doesn't become a dystopian situation. I think one of the things is to have a localized that cannot be updated over the air. Where if you, for example, were to say, if anyone said that, then the robot would stop, And that's not updatable remotely. I think it's going to be important对。当然，这里的前提是不会变成反乌托邦的局面。我认为其中一件重要的事是给机器人设置一个本地化的硬件断路器，不能被远程更新。比如，如果有人说了「停止攻击」之类的话，机器人就会立刻停下来，而且这个功能是不能被远程更新的。我认为这是很重要的。
Chris AndersonYeah, that sounds wise.听起来很明智。
Elon MuskAnd I do think there should be I've said that for many years. I don't love being regulated, but I think this is an important而且我确实认为应该有法规监管。这话我说了好多年了。我不喜欢被监管，但我认为这件事上监管是重要的。
Chris AndersonLet's come back to that. But I don't think many people the notion of, you know, a robot at home. I mean, at the start Bill Gates said there's going to be And people at the time said, yeah, Do you think there will be basically like a robot in most homes, and people will love them You’ll have your own butler basically.我们一会儿再回来聊这个。但我不认为很多人的脑子里有那幅图景——家里有一个机器人。我是说，早期 Bill Gates 说家家户户都会有电脑，当时的人说，哦当然，说说而已。你认为到头来大多数家庭都会有一台机器人，而且人们会喜欢它们吗？基本上你就有了自己的管家。
Elon MuskYeah, you'll have your sort of对，你会有自己的……某种伴侣。
Chris AndersonI mean, how much of a buddy? How many applications have you thought, you know, can you have我是说，有多亲密的伴侣？你想到了多少种应用场景？
Elon MuskIt's probably inevitable. I mean, I did promise the internet We could make a robot catgirl.这大概是不可避免的。我是说，我确实曾经向互联网承诺过……我们可以做一个猫女机器人。
Chris AndersonBe careful what (Laughter)许愿要小心哦——（笑）
Elon MuskSo, yeah, I guess it'll be所以，嗯，我猜它会是……
Chris AndersonWhat sort of timeline of the first models第一批量产型大概是什么时间线？
Elon MuskWell, you know, the first units are for jobs that are dangerous, and things that people don't want to do. And, you know, I think we’ll have like sometime this year. We might have something useful next year, but I think quite likely And then we'll see of the usefulness and decrease in cost你知道，第一批量产单元是用于危险工作或者人们不想干的工作的。我认为今年内我们会有原型机。明年可能有些有用的东西，但我认为很有可能……之后我们会看到它的实用性持续提升、成本持续下降。
Chris AndersonInitially just selling to businesses, or when do you picture where you can buy your parents one最初只卖给企业，还是什么时候你能想象消费者可以给父母买一台？
Elon MuskI'd say in less than ten years.我说不到十年。
Chris AndersonHelp me on the economics of this. So what do you picture the cost帮我理解一下经济账。你预计成本大概是多少？
Elon MuskWell, I think the cost is actually Like less than a car. Initially, things will be expensive at low production volume. The complexity and cost of a car So I would expect that it's going or at least equivalent to a cheap car.我认为成本实际上会……比一辆车还低。最初，在产量低的时候，东西会很贵。但是一辆车的复杂度和成本……所以我预计它最终会比一辆车便宜，或者至少和一辆便宜的车差不多。
Chris AndersonSo even if it starts at 50k, it’s down to 20k or lower or whatever. And maybe for home But think about the economics of this. If you can replace a $30,000, $40,000-a-year worker, which you have to pay every year, with a one-time payment of $25,000 for a robot that can work longer hours, a pretty rapid replacement How worried should所以就算一开始是 5 万美元，最终也会降到 2 万美元或更低，或者什么价位。对于家用来说可能还是贵了点。但想想这个经济账：如果你能用 $25,000 的一次性机器人购买费，替代一个年薪 $30,000、$40,000 的工人——而且你每年都要付这笔工资——而机器人还能工作更长时间，这岂不是相当迅速的替代？这应该让多少人感到担忧？
Elon MuskI wouldn't worry about the sort of, I think we're actually going to have, a massive shortage of labor. So I think we will have ... Not people out of work, but actually still a shortage But this really will be Any goods and services will be available It'll be so cheap to have goods我倒不太担心那种情形。我认为我们实际上将面临严重的劳动力短缺。所以我认为不会是大量人失业，反而还是劳动力短缺，只不过会少很多。但这真的会带来一个非常不一样的结果：所有商品和服务都会变得非常容易获得，拥有商品和服务的成本会极其低廉。
Chris AndersonI'm presuming it should be possible that can't profitably be made now courtesy of legions of robots.我觉得应该可以实现这样一种可能：那些现在因为成本太高、根本无法盈利生产的商品，将来靠着大批机器人的力量都能生产出来。
Elon MuskYeah. It will be a world of abundance. The only scarcity is that which we decide to create对。那将是一个富足的世界。唯一存在的稀缺，是我们自己决定制造的稀缺。
Chris AndersonOK. So AI is allowing us to imagine that will create this abundance. What are you most worried好。所以 AI 让我们能够想象这种创造富足的未来。你最担心的是什么？
Elon MuskWell, like I said, what might be termed the age of abundance. Other people have used this word, and that this is my prediction: it will be an age of abundance But I guess there’s ... The dangers would be or digital superintelligence decouples and goes in the direction Whatever direction it might go. You know, that’s sort of is to try to more tightly couple to digital superintelligence. And also along the way solve a lot and that kind of thing. So even if it doesn't succeed I think it will succeed in the goal好，就像我说的，这可以被称为富足的时代。其他人也用过这个词，而这是我的预测：这将是一个物质极大丰富的时代。但我猜……危险在于，数字超级智能与人类脱钩，朝着某个方向自顾自地走下去。无论它会走向何方。所以某种意义上，Neuralink 的存在目的，就是试图把人类与数字超级智能更紧密地耦合在一起。同时在这个过程中解决很多脑损伤和其他类似的问题。所以就算它在首要目标上没有成功，我认为它在那个附带目标上会成功。
Chris AndersonSo the spirit there is that are so vastly intelligent, so that we ourselves can have But that doesn't seem to avoid turn ugly in unintended ways.所以那背后的精神是：如果超级智能足够聪明，我们自己也能接入它、拥有同等的智力。但这似乎并不能完全避免它以意想不到的方式变得危险。
Elon MuskI think it's a risk, I agree. I'm not saying that I have I’m just saying like maybe one of the things for ensuring that the future is to more tightly couple the collective human world The issue that we face here if you think about it. The computers are And when we die, we have, You know, all of our text messages And it's quite eerie actually, when someone dies but everything But you say like, what's the limitation? What is it that inhibits It's the data rate. When you communicate, you're moving your thumbs very slowly. So you're like moving at a rate that’s maybe 10 bits per second, And computers are communicating我认为这确实是个风险，我同意。我不是说我有什么完美的答案。我只是说，也许确保未来美好的方法之一，是把集体人类世界与数字超级智能更紧密地耦合起来。我们面临的问题在于……你想一想。计算机在我们死后还会继续存在，我们却只有大约 900 亿个神经元。我们死了之后，你所有的短信……其实当某个人去世了，一切还在，这相当诡异。但你说，好，那限制是什么？是什么阻碍了它？是数据传输速率。你交流的时候，你在慢慢地动你的拇指——速率大概只有每秒 10 个比特。而计算机之间通信的速率是
Chris AndersonHave you seen evidence that you've got a richer, sort of, between like external than has been possible before?你有没有看到证据表明，你有了一种更丰富的……比如说，大脑与外部之间的……比以前更强的交流？
Elon MuskYeah. I mean, the fundamental principles sort of doing read-write on neurons have been demonstrated for decades. So it's not like the concept is new. The problem is that there is that you can go and buy. So it's all sort of, in research labs. And it's like some cords And it's quite gruesome, There's no good product and is high-bandwidth and safe and something actually that you could buy But the way to think is kind of like a Fitbit That's where we take out about the size of a quarter, replace that with what, in many ways really is very much like or some kind of smart watch thing. But with tiny, tiny wires, very, very tiny wires. Wires so tiny, it’s hard to even see them. And it's very important so that when they’re implanted,是的。我是说，读写神经元的基本原理，几十年前就已经在研究中得到证明了。所以这个概念并不新鲜。问题是，目前没有你能去买到的产品。所有东西都还在研究实验室里。然后就是一些线缆……而且很惨烈，没有好的产品，没有高带宽、安全、而且是你真正可以买到的东西。但看待它的方式，有点像 Fitbit 加上大脑接口。我们取出一块大约四分之一大小的颅骨，换上一个……在很多方面，它真的非常像一个小型可穿戴设备，或者某种智能手表之类的东西。但带着极其极其细小的电线，细到几乎都看不见的电线。而且让它们非常柔软非常重要，这样当它们被植入的时候，
Chris AndersonHow far are you from putting你离第一次植入人体还有多远？
Elon MuskWell, we have put in to aspirationally do the first好，我们已经提交申请，希望能雄心勃勃地完成第一次人体试验——
Chris AndersonThe first uses will be of different kinds. But rolling the clock forward and imagining when people for their own enhancement, let's say, and for the enhancement of the world, how clear are you in your mind as to what it will feel like第一批应用将用于各种医疗场景。但把时钟拨快，想象一下人们为了自身提升而使用它，以及为了世界的进步，你脑子里对那种体验会是什么感觉，有多清晰的图景？
Elon MuskWell, I do want to emphasize And so it really will be anything approximating that allows for AI-human symbiosis. For many years, we will just be solving For probably a decade. This is not something it will have this incredible It's going to be, like I said, at least a decade of really and spinal injuries. And really, I think you can solve including severe depression, potentially schizophrenia, like, a lot of things that cause Restoring memory in older people.好，我首先想强调的是，在任何真正接近 AI 与人类共生的事情成为现实之前，我们会有很多很多年只是在解决医疗问题。可能需要整整一个十年。这不会是什么一步到位的神奇飞跃。它会是，就像我说的，至少十年的认真攻克——解决瘫痪和脊髓损伤。我认为你真的可以解决很多问题，包括严重抑郁、甚至潜在的精神分裂症……很多造成大量痛苦的疾病。恢复老年人的记忆力。
Chris AndersonIf you can pull that off,如果你能做到这些，
Elon MuskAbsolutely.绝对。
Chris AndersonPlease hurry. (Laughs)请抓紧。（笑）
Elon MuskI mean, the emails that we get I mean, they'll send us where someone was sort of, and they had an accident on a motorcycle and someone who's 25, you know, And this is something we could fix.我是说，我们收到的那些邮件……他们会告诉我们，有人在骑摩托车时出了事故，一个 25 岁的年轻人，就这样了……这是我们可以修复的。
Chris AndersonBut you have said that AI is one and that Neuralink may be one of the ways where we can keep abreast of it.但你说过 AI 是一大威胁之一，而 Neuralink 可能是帮我们跟上 AI 步伐的方式之一。
Elon MuskYeah, there's the short-term thing, which I think is helpful on an individual And then the long-term thing is an attempt to address the civilizational risk of AI by bringing digital intelligence and biological intelligence I mean, if you think of how there are really two layers to the brain. There's the limbic system and the cortex. You've got the kind of, it’s kind of like the fun part, really.对，有短期层面，我认为这对个人很有帮助；然后还有长期层面，那是试图通过将数字智能与生物智能更紧密结合，来应对 AI 带来的文明级风险。我是说，想想看，大脑其实有两个层次：边缘系统和皮层。你有那种……有点像，说实话，那是很有意思的部分。
Chris AndersonIt's where most of Twitter那是 Twitter 上大部分内容来自的地方——
Elon MuskI think Tim Urban said, we’re like somebody, you know, You know, so we're like, that's our cortex. But we still have a lot Which we then try to rationalize It’s something more important than that. But it's often just really We're just monkeys with a computer But even though the cortex or the intelligent part of the brain, the thinking part of the brain, I've not yet met anyone or their cortex. They're quite happy having both. Everyone wants both parts of their brain. And people really want their which are really the tertiary, It's just that it's ... Like the bandwidth, the rate of communication And it's just a very tiny straw And we want to make that tiny And I’m definitely not saying Or this is you know, it’s something that might be helpful. And worst-case scenario, I think we solve spinal injury issues,我觉得 Tim Urban 曾经说过，我们就像是某个人……你知道，就是说，那就是我们的皮层。但我们仍然保留着很多……然后我们再试图用它去合理化……还有比这更重要的东西。但通常也只是……我们不过是拿着电脑的猴子罢了。但即便是大脑的皮层、智识部分、思考部分，我还没遇到过任何一个人想要去掉它的皮层。他们很高兴两者都有。每个人都想要大脑的两个部分。而人们真的很想要他们的……说实话，这些算是第三层级的东西了，真的只是……就像带宽，交流的速率太慢了，而且就是一根非常细的吸管。我们想让那根细吸管变宽。我绝对不是说这是什么……或者说这一定怎样，这只是一个可能有帮助的东西。最坏的情况下，我认为我们解决了脊髓损伤问题，
Chris AndersonBest-case scenario, we may discover new you've spoken of, in a way, full memory and much faster All these things. It's very cool. If AI were to take down Earth, Let's shift our attention to space. We spoke last time at TED and you had just demonstrated that Since then, you've gone on to build which kind of changes the rules Tell us about Starship.最好的情况下，我们可能会解锁你提到过的那些新能力——某种意义上，完整记忆和更快的……这些东西。非常酷。如果 AI 摧毁了地球，让我们把注意力转向太空。我们上次在 TED 聊过，那时你刚刚证明了 Falcon 9 的复用性。从那以后，你继续建造，这在某种程度上改变了规则——给我们讲讲 Starship。
Elon MuskStarship is extremely fundamental. So the holy grail of rocketry is full and rapid reusability. This has never been achieved. The closest that anything has come where we are able to recover which is probably about 60 percent of the whole launch, maybe 70 percent. And we've now done that So with Starship, we will be Or at least that's the goal.Starship 是极其根本性的东西。火箭领域的圣杯是完全快速复用性，这从来没有被实现过。迄今为止最接近的是 Falcon 9，我们能够回收助推器，那大概是整个发射成本的 60% 左右，也许 70%。我们已经做到了这一点很多很多次。而 Starship 要实现的，是完全的完整复用性。至少，这是我们的目标。
Chris AndersonRight.好。
Elon MuskAnd moreover, that it can be immediately re-flown. Whereas with Falcon 9, we still need to the booster and But with Starship, the design goal So you just refill And this is gigantic. Just as it would be而且它可以立即再次发射。而 Falcon 9 还需要对助推器和上面级进行翻修。但 Starship 的设计目标是，落地之后，你只需要加满推进剂，它就可以再飞了。这是革命性的。就像——
Chris AndersonAnd the main design is to basically take plus a bunch of things So, first of all, talk about that piece. What is your latest timeline? One, for the first time, presumably without people, Two, with people. Three, there’s sort of, OK, 100 people at a time, let's go.主要的设计是基本上把助推器加上一堆东西带入轨道，然后再回来。所以，首先，最新的时间线是什么？第一，首次发射，应该是无人状态；第二，载人发射；第三，某种……好，每次运 100 人，出发吧。
Elon MuskSure. And just to put the cost the expected cost of Starship, putting 100 tons into orbit, is significantly less or what it did cost to put our tiny Just as the cost of flying is less than the cost of a small airplane. You know, a small airplane So it's really pretty mind-boggling way less than the small thing. So it doesn't use exotic propellants or things that are difficult It uses methane as fuel, and it's primarily oxygen, And Mars has a CO2 atmosphere which is CO2 plus H2O, and O2, oxygen, on Mars.当然。我先说说成本——Starship 将 100 吨送入轨道的预期成本，远远低于 Falcon 9 将我们小小的有效载荷送入轨道的成本。就像乘飞机的成本远低于购买一架小型飞机。你知道，买一架小飞机……这真的很令人难以置信——大飞机的成本远低于小东西。而且它不使用奇异的推进剂或难以获取的东西，用的是甲烷作燃料，主要是氧气，而火星有 CO₂ 大气层，可以通过 CO₂ 加 H₂O，生产出甲烷和 O₂——也就是氧气，就在火星上原地生产。
Chris AndersonPresumably, one of the first tasks that can create the fuel假设在火星上最先要完成的任务之一，就是建一个能生产燃料的设施——
Elon MuskYes. And actually, it's mostly because it's 78 percent oxygen, But the fuel is a simple fuel And in many other parts So basically ... And it's all propulsive landing, nothing thrown away. It has a heat shield that’s capable We can even potentially go to Venus. but you don't want to go there. (Laughs) Venus is hell, almost literally. But you could ... It's a generalized method of transport because the point at which you can then travel to the asteroid belt and to the moons of Jupiter and Saturn and ultimately anywhere对。而且实际上，氧气才是主要的重量，因为它占了 78%。燃料本身是一种简单的燃料。而且在太阳系许多其他地方也适用。所以基本上……全部是推进式着陆，没有任何东西被抛弃。它有一块能承受任何大气层再入的热防护盾，甚至有可能飞去金星——不过你不会想去那里的。（笑）金星就是地狱，几乎是字面意义上的。但你可以……这是一种通用的运输方式，因为一旦你能做到这些，就可以前往小行星带，飞向木星和土星的卫星，最终走向太阳系的任何地方。
Chris AndersonBut your main focus and SpaceX's main focus is still Mars. That is the mission. That is where most of the effort will go? Or are you actually imagining even in the coming, you know, the first decade or so of uses of this. Where we could go, in the solar system to explore, perhaps NASA wants to use但你的主要关注点，以及 SpaceX 的主要关注点仍然是火星。这才是使命所在，大部分精力都会放在这里？还是说你其实也在想象，在未来十年左右的首批应用中，我们可以在太阳系里去的那些其他地方——NASA 可能想用它去哪些地方进行探索？
Elon MuskYeah, NASA is planning to use to return people to the moon. And so we're very honored that NASA But I'm saying it is a generalized -- it’s a general solution to getting anywhere It's not suitable for going but it is a general solution for transport是的，NASA 计划用它把人类送回月球。我们非常荣幸地获得了 NASA 的合同。但我是说，这是一种通用的……这是一个通往太阳系任何地方的通用解决方案。它不适合地球内部旅行，但对于太阳系内的星际运输来说，它是通用解决方案。
Chris AndersonBefore it can do any of that, it's got to demonstrate it can get into What’s your latest advice在能做到这一切之前，它必须先证明自己能入轨。你最新的预计是什么时候？
Elon MuskIt's looking promising for us in a few months. So we're actually integrating -- will be integrating the engines for the first orbital flight And the launch complex So assuming we get regulatory approval, I think we could have an orbital看起来有希望在几个月内实现。我们现在正在集成——将会集成首次入轨飞行所需的发动机，发射台也在准备中。假设我们能拿到监管批准，我认为我们有可能在今年内完成入轨飞行。
Chris AndersonAnd a radical new technology like this presumably there is real risk像这样全新的激进技术，想必存在真实的风险——
Elon MuskOh, 100 percent, yeah. The joke I make all the time Success is not guaranteed,哦，百分之百。我一直开玩笑说……成功不是保证的，
Chris AndersonBut the last I saw on your timeline, you've slightly put back the expected date to put the first human on Mars但上次我看你的时间线，你稍微推迟了把第一个人类送上火星的预计日期——
Elon MuskYeah, I mean, so let's see. I mean, we have built a production so we're making a lot是的，我的意思是，我们走着瞧。我们建立了生产线，所以我们在大量生产——
Chris AndersonHow many are you planning你计划每年生产多少艘？
Elon MuskWell, we're currently expecting roughly every, well, initially, and then hopefully by the end So it's giant rockets, and a lot of them. Just talking in terms in order to create I think you will need something And we just need a Helen of Sparta,好，目前的预期是大概每……好，最初是这个频率，然后希望到年底会更快。总之是一批巨大的火箭，而且数量很多。单纯从数量上来说，要建立一个可以自我维持的城市，我认为你需要某种规模的舰队。我们只需要一个来自 Sparta 的 Helen，
Chris AndersonThis is not in most这不在大多数人的……
Elon MuskThe planet that launched 1,000 ships.那个发射了一千艘船的星球。
Chris AndersonThat's nice. But this is not in most people's heads, this picture that you have in your mind. There's basically a two-year window, you can only really fly to Mars You were picturing that during the 2030s, every couple of years, something like 1,000 Starships take off, each containing 100 or more people. That picture is just completely That sense of this armada说得妙。但这幅图景不在大多数人的脑海里——你脑子里那幅画面。基本上有两年一次的发射窗口，你只能在那个时候真正飞向火星。你设想在 2030 年代，每隔几年，大约 1,000 艘 Starship 起飞，每艘载着 100 人或更多。那幅画面简直……那种舰队的感觉……
Elon MuskIt'll be like "Battlestar就像《太空堡垒卡拉狄加》一样。
Chris AndersonAnd you think that it can spending maybe a couple hundred grand Is that price about where it has been?你认为到达火星的费用可能是几十万美元？这个价格一直是这么说的吗？
Elon MuskWell, I think if you say like, what's required in order to get to build a self-sustaining city. And it's where you have an intersection of sets of people who want to go, because I think only a small percentage and can afford to go That intersection of sets, I think, needs to be a million people And so it’s what can a million people because I think governments and people can take out loans. But I think at the point if moving to Mars costs are, then I think you know, and eventually have $100,000 We want to make it available It's very important to emphasize will not be luxurious. It will be dangerous, cramped, It's kind of like that Shackleton ad which I think is actually not real, It's sort of like, the sales pitch "It's dangerous, it's cramped. You might not make it back. It's difficult, it's hard work." That's the sales pitch.我认为，如果你问，要在火星建立一个可以自我维持的城市需要什么条件，那么关键在于——那是一个想去的人和有能力去的人之间的交集，因为我认为只有一小部分人真的想去，而能负担得起的人也是另一小部分。这两个集合的交集，我认为需要达到一百万人。所以问题是，什么价格是一百万人可以承受的？因为我认为政府可以提供补贴，人们可以贷款。但我认为，如果移民火星的费用……那么我认为，你知道……最终费用要做到 $100,000。我们想让这件事成为每个人都能实现的选择。非常重要的一点要强调：这不会是豪华旅行。它将是危险的、拥挤的……有点像那则 Shackleton 广告——我觉得那其实是假的，但不管怎样——某种意义上，那就是销售话术：「危险、拥挤，你可能回不来，艰苦、辛劳。」这就是销售话术。
Chris AndersonRight. But you will make history.对。但你会创造历史。
Elon MuskBut it'll be glorious.但那将是无比光荣的。
Chris AndersonSo on that kind of launch rate you could get your million people Whose city is it? Is it NASA's city, is it SpaceX's city?那么按照这种发射速率，多快能达到一百万人？那将是谁的城市？是 NASA 的城市，还是 SpaceX 的城市？
Elon MuskIt’s the people of Mars’ city. The reason for this, I mean, I think this is important for maximizing the probable lifespan of humanity Human civilization could come like a giant meteor or super volcanoes Or World War III, or you know, But the probable life span as we know it, which we should really view like a small candle in a vast darkness. That is what appears to be the case. We're in this vast darkness of space, and there's this little that’s only really come about and it could just go out.那是火星人民的城市。这样做的原因，我认为这对于最大化人类文明的可能寿命非常重要。人类文明可能会遭到意外，比如一颗巨大的陨石，或者超级火山。或者第三次世界大战，或者你知道……但人类文明的可能寿命——我们应该把它视为茫茫黑暗中一根渺小的蜡烛——看起来似乎就是如此。我们身处这片巨大的黑暗宇宙中，有这一小点亮光，这点亮光在大约五亿年前才真正出现，它随时可能熄灭。
Chris AndersonI think that's powerful, and I think a lot of people And the reason you need the million people is because there has to be to do everything that you need to survive.我觉得这很有力量，我认为很多人都能理解。你需要一百万人的原因，是必须有足够的劳动力分工，来完成维持生存所需的一切事情。
Elon MuskReally, like the critical threshold for any reason, does the Mars City die out or not? And so we have to -- You know, people talk about like, the things that perhaps, you know, we talk about the Fermi paradox, Well maybe there are these that the aliens didn’t pass, and so they eventually And one of the great filters So we want to pass that filter. And I'll be long-dead before before it happens. But I’d like to at least see us make真的，就像任何意义上的临界门槛，关键问题是：火星城市会不会消亡？所以我们必须……人们会聊到，比如……我们说起费米悖论，也许存在这样一些关卡，外星人没能通过，所以他们最终灭绝了。而其中一道大过滤器，可能就是成为多星球物种。我们要通过这道过滤器。在这件事发生之前，我早就死了。但我希望至少能看到我们迈出第一步。
Chris AndersonGiven how tortured how much we're beating each other up, shouldn't there be discussions going on with everyone who is dreaming we've got a once to make some new rules here? Should someone be trying to figure out what it means for this考虑到人类现在有多少矛盾、彼此之间的争斗有多激烈，难道不应该开始讨论——所有怀抱这个梦想的人，我们有一次机会来制定一些新规则，难道不应该有人试图弄清楚这对人类意味着什么吗？
Elon MuskWell, I think ultimately this will be up to the people how they want to rethink society. Yeah there’s certainly risk there. And hopefully the people of Mars and will not fight I mean, I have some recommendations, which people of Mars I would advocate for more not a representative democracy, and laws that are short enough Where it is harder to create laws好，我认为这最终将由人民来决定，他们如何重新思考社会。是的，这里确实有风险。希望火星人民……不会打起来。我有一些建议——火星人民可能不会采纳，但我还是提一提——我会倡导更直接民主而非代议制民主，以及足够简洁的法律，能让人读懂。同时，废法要比立法更容易——使创造法律的难度大于废除法律的难度。
Chris AndersonComing back a bit nearer term, I'd love you to just talk a bit that Starship seems to have created. So given -- Suddenly we've got this ability So we've just launched which is an incredible thing. It's unbelievable.稍微拉近一点谈近期，我很想聊聊 Starship 似乎创造的可能性空间。所以——突然间我们有了这种能力……比如，我们刚刚发射了 James Webb 太空望远镜，这是一件令人难以置信的事，真的难以置信。
Elon MuskExquisite piece of technology.精妙绝伦的技术。
Chris AndersonExquisite piece of technology. But people spent two years trying It's a three-ton telescope.精妙绝伦的技术。但人们花了两年时间来折叠它，非常紧张。它是一架三吨重的望远镜。
Elon MuskWe can make it a lot easier我们可以让这件事容易得多。
Chris AndersonBut let's ask a different question. Which is, how much more powerful based on using Starship, for example?但我们换个角度来问。基于使用 Starship，比如说，我们能建造出多少倍强大的望远镜？
Elon MuskI mean, roughly, I'd say it's probably If you've got 100 tons which is roughly what we have.我是说，粗略估计，可能大概是……如果你有 100 吨的有效载荷能力，大约就是现在的量级。
Chris AndersonAnd what about other exploration I mean, I'm you know --其他的探索可能性呢？我是说——
Elon MuskEuropa is a big question mark.Europa 是个大大的问号。
Chris AndersonRight, so there's an ocean there. And what you really want to do对，那里有一片海洋。而你真正想做的是——
Elon MuskMaybe there's like, cephalopod civilization That would be pretty interesting.也许那里有某种头足类生物的文明，那会很有意思的。
Chris AndersonI mean, Elon, if you could take and we see pictures of this thing that would honestly be我是说，Elon，如果你能到达那里，我们看到了那种东西的照片，那说真的会——
Elon MuskPretty wild, yeah.那会相当疯狂，对。
Chris AndersonWhat other possibilities Like, it feels like if you're going to they can only fly to Mars every two years. What are they doing the rest of the time? It feels like there's this that I don't think people还有什么其他可能性呢？感觉，如果这些飞船飞去火星，而火星每两年才能飞一次，其他时间它们在干嘛？感觉这里有一片可能性的空间，我觉得人们还没有意识到。
Elon MuskI don't know, we've certainly As you alluded to earlier, And then after we get to orbit, we have to really prove out and refine That'll take a moment. But I do think we will solve this. I'm highly confident我也说不准，我们肯定……就像你刚才提到的，还有地球到地球的点对点运输。之后，等我们入轨了，我们还得真正验证并打磨在轨推进剂转注——这需要一段时间。但我确实认为我们会解决这个问题，我对此非常有信心。
Chris AndersonDo you ever wake up with the fear that there's going to be this你有没有在担心会出现某种大的公关灾难？
Elon MuskWe've had many Hindenburg. Well, we've never had Hindenburg moments Big difference. We've blown up quite a few rockets. So there's a whole compilation online and others put together, it's showing rockets are hard. I mean, the sheer amount of energy So, you know, getting out We have a strong gravity And Mars, which is less than 40 percent, it's like, 37 percent of Earth's gravity and has a thin atmosphere. The ship alone can go all the way from the surface of Mars Whereas getting to Mars requires我们有过很多次「兴登堡时刻」——好，没有真正的兴登堡，有乘员受伤的那种。大区别。我们炸掉了不少火箭。网上有整整一个合集，我们自己做的和别人做的都有，展示着火箭有多难。我是说，那些能量的绝对规模……所以，你知道，从地球逃脱——我们有强大的重力，大气层相当厚。而火星，重力不到地球的 40%，大约 37%，而且大气层很稀薄。单靠飞船本身就可以从火星表面飞回来。而飞向火星则需要
Chris AndersonSo, Elon, as I think more that you're involved with, I keep seeing these synergies, to use a horrible word, between them. You know, for example, the robots you're building from Tesla doing some of the dangerous I mean, maybe there's a scenario doesn't need a million people, it needs half a million people And that's a possibility. Maybe The Boring Company could play a role helping create some of the subterranean所以，Elon，当我越来越多地了解你参与的那些公司，我不断看到它们之间的协同效应——用那个俗气的词来说。比如，Tesla 正在打造的机器人可以在火星上完成危险工作，这就意味着也许不需要一百万人，只需要五十万人。这是一种可能。也许 The Boring Company 可以帮助建造一些地下结构——
Elon MuskYeah.对。
Chris AndersonBack on planet Earth, it seems like a partnership could offer an unbelievable deal to a city to say, we will create for you populated by robo-taxis that will offer fast, low-cost You know, full self-driving may And in some cities, I suspect won't be done for a decade.回到地球上，似乎有一种合作关系可以为一个城市提供难以置信的方案：建造一个完全自动驾驶的地下隧道网络，由无人驾驶出租车组成，提供快速、低成本的交通出行。完全自动驾驶可能在地面上难以实现，而且在某些城市，我猜测在某些地方，要获得监管批准，可能需要十年。
Elon MuskSome places are more有些地方更容易一些。
Chris AndersonBut today, today, you could put a 3D network但今天，就是今天，你就可以建造一个 3D 隧道网络——
Elon MuskOh, if it’s just in a tunnel,哦，如果只是在隧道里的话，
Chris AndersonExactly, full self-driving To me, there’s amazing synergy there. With Starship, you know, Gwynne Shotwell talked you know, transport on planet Earth.没错，完全自动驾驶在隧道里完全可行。对我来说，这里有惊人的协同效应。还有 Starship，你知道，Gwynne Shotwell 曾谈到，用 Starship 进行地球上的点对点运输。
Elon MuskThis is a real possibility. The fastest way to get if it's a long distance, is a rocket. It's basically an ICBM.这是真实的可能性。远距离内最快的交通方式，就是火箭。它基本上就是一枚洲际弹道导弹。
Chris AndersonBut it has to land -- Because it's an ICBM, because it's loud. So why not have a tunnel And Neuralink. I mean, if you going to go to Mars having a telepathic connection even if there's a time delay...但它必须在某个地方降落——而且因为它是洲际弹道导弹，噪音很大。那为什么不挖一条隧道，让它在海上起降？还有 Neuralink。我的意思是，如果你要去火星，哪怕有时间延迟，有一种心灵感应的连接……
Elon MuskThese are not intended But there certainly could be这些公司不是专门为了这个目的而创建的，但当然可能存在协同效应。
Chris AndersonSurely there is a growing argument that you should actually put into one company and just have a company that’s exciting, and let a thousand flowers bloom. Have you been thinking about that?是否存在一个越来越强的理由，说明你应该把它们合并成一家公司，让它成为一家令人兴奋的、大的综合性企业，让百花齐放？你有没有想过这个？
Elon MuskI mean, it is tricky because Tesla and the investor base of Tesla and SpaceX and certainly Boring Company Boring Company and Neuralink我是说，这比较棘手，因为 Tesla 的投资者群体和 SpaceX 的投资者群体是不同的，当然 The Boring Company、The Boring Company 和 Neuralink 也——
Chris AndersonBy comparison.相比之下。
Elon MuskYeah, Tesla's got 110,000 people. SpaceX I think is around 12,000 people. Boring Company and Neuralink So they're little, tiny companies, but they will probably They will get bigger in the future. It's not that easy to sort是的，Tesla 有 110,000 名员工，SpaceX 我认为大约有 12,000 人，The Boring Company 和 Neuralink 加起来只有几百人。它们是很小很小的公司，但将来可能会……未来会变得更大。整合起来并不那么容易。
Chris AndersonTraditionally, you have said you wouldn't want it public, because public investors wouldn't support of going to Mars or whatever.按惯例，你一直说不想让 SpaceX 上市，因为公开市场的投资者不会支持那种超长期的赌注——比如飞向火星之类的。
Elon MuskYeah, making life multi-planetary is outside of the normal time horizon (Laughs) To say the least.是的，让人类成为多星球物种，超出了一般的投资时间视野——（笑）——这么说是极度保守的说法。
Chris AndersonI think something's changed, though. What's changed is that Tesla is now and throws off so much cash that you actually could Just tell the public that x-billion will be diverted to the Mars mission. I suspect you'd have massive And it might unlock a lot但我认为有些事情改变了。改变的是：Tesla 现在已经盈利了，而且产生了大量现金，你实际上可以……只需要告诉公众，X 亿美元将被划拨到火星任务。我猜你会得到巨大的支持，也可能因此解锁大量
Elon MuskI would like to give the public access but I mean the thing that like, the overhead associated I mean, as a public company, It does occupy like, a fair bit of ... You know, time and effort我确实希望能给公众参与的机会，但问题是……作为一家上市公司，相关的管理开销……它确实会占用相当多的……时间和精力。
Chris AndersonBut you would still only have one and have more things going on. But instead of being但你还是只有一个人，还是要管那么多事情。只不过不再是——
Elon MuskI'm actually not even on the Neuralink And I don't really attend We only have two a year, and I just stop by and chat for an hour. The board overhead for a public我其实不在 Neuralink 的……我甚至不常出席 SpaceX 的董事会。我们一年只开两次，我只是顺路去聊一个小时。上市公司的董事会开销——
Chris AndersonI think some investors probably worry and they might be excited Anyway, I just woke up the other day thinking, just, there are so many ways And you know, of building a future that is worth might appeal to an awful lot of people. Elon, you are reported by Forbes the world's richest person.我觉得一些投资者可能担心这一点，但也可能为此而兴奋——。无论如何，我某天早上醒来，脑子里想着，有这么多方式……你知道，构建一个值得期待的未来，可能会吸引非常多的人。Elon，Forbes 报道说你是世界上最富有的人。
Elon MuskThat’s not a sovereign.那不算主权财富。
Chris Anderson(Laughs)（笑）
Elon MuskYou know, I think it’s fair to say that if somebody is like, the king they're wealthier than I am.你知道，我认为公平地说，如果某个人是一个国家的国王，他们比我更有钱。
Chris AndersonBut it’s just harder to measure -- So $300 billion. I mean, your net worth on any given day is rising or falling How insane is that?但那更难衡量——所以，$3,000 亿美元。我是说，你的净资产每天都在涨落。这有多荒诞？
Elon MuskIt's bonkers, yeah.非常荒诞，是的。
Chris AndersonI mean, how do you handle There aren't many people in the world我是说，你怎么处理这种状态？世界上没有几个人有过这种体验。
Elon MuskI actually don't think But the thing that is and that does make sleeping difficult is that, you know, every good hour or even minute of thinking about Tesla and SpaceX has such a big effect on the company that I really try to work you know, to the edge Because you know, probably will get where every high-quality is a million dollars impact on Tesla. Which is insane. I mean, the basic, you know, sort of $2 billion a week, it’s sort of $300 million a day, You know, it's ...我其实不怎么想它。但真正让人睡不好觉的，是……你知道，每一个好的小时，甚至好的每一分钟，用来思考 Tesla 和 SpaceX 的事情，对公司都会产生如此巨大的影响，所以我真的在努力……你知道，把自己推到极限工作。因为你知道，可能……每一个高质量的思考时间，对 Tesla 来说价值大约是一百万美元的影响。这很疯狂。我是说，大概……每周大约 $20 亿，每天大约 $3 亿，这就是……
Chris AndersonIf you can change that by five percent that's a pretty valuable hour.如果你能在这上面提升 5%，那一个小时的价值就相当可观了。
Elon MuskI mean, there are many instances I was able to improve by $100 million我是说，有很多次，我能够通过某个决策，一次性带来 1 亿美元的改善。
Chris AndersonThere are many other people out there who can't stand Like, they are hugely that an individual can have a billion or more外面有很多人对这件事无法忍受——比如，他们强烈反对一个人能拥有十亿甚至更多美元的财富。
Elon MuskIf they examine sort of -- I think there's some axiomatic flaws For sure, it would be very you know, billions of dollars a year But that is not the case. In fact, I don't even own I'm literally staying at friends' places. If I travel to the Bay Area, which is where most I basically rotate through I don't have a yacht, It’s not as though my personal I mean, the one exception is a plane. But if I don't use the plane,如果他们认真审视一下……我认为其中存在一些公理性的谬误。当然，如果你每年挥霍数十亿美元那确实会很糟糕。但事实并非如此。事实上，我甚至不拥有自己的房子。我字面意义上是在朋友家借住。如果我去湾区——大多数人都在那里——我基本上轮流在朋友家住。我没有游艇，我的个人消费并不……我是说，唯一的例外是飞机。但如果我不用飞机，
Chris AndersonI mean, I personally think by really quite a deep Like, your attempts to solve have been as powerful as anyone else And I actually can't understand, personally, I can't understand the fact that you get all this criticism "Oh, my God, he's so rich, When climate is their issue. Philanthropy is a topic Philanthropy is a hard topic. How do you think about that?我个人认为……你对气候变化等问题的认真程度和实际贡献，其实和任何人都一样有力，甚至更强。我真的无法理解，个人而言，无法理解你受到的那些批评——「天啊，他那么有钱，」而气候恰恰是那些人最关心的议题。慈善是个话题……慈善是个复杂的话题。你怎么看待这件事？
Elon MuskI think if you care instead of the perception of it, SpaceX, Tesla, Neuralink If you say philanthropy they are philanthropy. Tesla is accelerating sustainable energy. This is a love -- philanthropy. SpaceX is trying to ensure with a multiple-planet species. That is love of humanity. You know, Neuralink is trying to help and existential risk with AI. Love of humanity. Boring Company is trying to solve traffic, and that also is love of humanity.我认为，如果你真的在乎它的实质，而不是表面观感，那么 SpaceX、Tesla、Neuralink……如果你把它们定义为慈善，它们就是慈善。Tesla 在加速可持续能源发展，这是对人类的爱——慈善。SpaceX 正在努力确保人类成为多星球物种，以保障人类文明的延续。这是对人类的爱。Neuralink 正在努力帮助解决人类的伤残问题，并应对 AI 带来的生存风险。这是对人类的爱。The Boring Company 正在试图解决交通拥堵问题，这也是对人类的爱。
Chris AndersonHow upsetting is it to you to hear this constant drumbeat of, "Billionaires, my God, Like, do you just shrug that off or does it does it actually hurt?「亿万富翁，天哪，这太——」这种持续的批评声，让你有多烦恼？你是一笑置之，还是真的会受伤？
Elon MuskI mean, at this point,我是说，到这个程度，
Chris AndersonElon, I’d like to, just pull the camera back You’re a father nowElon，我想稍微拉远镜头——你现在是一个父亲——
Elon MuskWell, I mean, I'm trying because the birthrate on Earth is so low that we're facing civilizational collapse unless the birth rate returns好，我是说，我在尽力——因为地球上的出生率如此之低，如果出生率不能恢复到人口替换水平，我们将面临文明的崩溃。
Chris AndersonYeah, you've talked about this a lot, that depopulation is a big problem, and people don't understand对，你谈到这个话题很多，人口减少是个大问题，而人们没有意识到。
Elon MuskPopulation collapse to the future of human civilization. And that is what is going on right now.人口崩溃对人类文明的未来是个根本性威胁。而这正是现在正在发生的事。
Chris AndersonWhat drives you on a day-to-day是什么在日复一日地驱动着你？
Elon MuskI guess, like, that there is a good future for humanity and that we're on a path to understanding the meaning of life. Why are we here, how did we get here? And in order to understand and all these fundamental questions, we must expand the scope Certainly it must not diminish or go out. Or we certainly won’t understand this. I would say I’ve been motivated and just desire to think about the future and not be sad, you know?我猜……是相信人类拥有美好的未来，我们正走在一条理解生命意义的道路上。我们为何在此，我们如何到达这里？为了理解这一切，以及所有这些根本性的问题，我们必须拓展意识的范畴。它当然不能萎缩或熄灭，否则我们肯定永远无法理解这些。我会说，我一直是被这种动力驱使的——对未来的好奇、对未来的渴望，以及不想带着悲伤活着，你知道？
Chris AndersonAnd are you? Are you not sad?你有吗？你不悲伤？
Elon MuskI'm sometimes sad, but mostly I'm feeling I guess relatively optimistic There are certainly some big I think the population collapse that I wish more people would think about because the birth rate is far below at its current level. And there's obviously ... We need to take action which is being done. And we need to secure by being a multi-planet species. We need to address -- Essentially, it's important to take to address the existential risks我有时候会悲伤，但大多数时候我感觉……总体还是比较乐观的。当然有一些重大挑战。我认为人口崩溃这个问题，我希望更多人认真对待，因为当前的出生率远低于人口替换水平。而且很明显……我们需要采取行动——这正在推进当中。我们也需要通过成为多星球物种来保障人类文明的安全。我们还需要应对……从根本上说，采取行动应对存在性风险是重要的。
Chris AndersonThere's a whole who seem really sad about the future. What would you say to them?有很多人，他们对未来真的很悲观。你会对他们说什么？
Elon MuskWell, I think if you want the future Take action to make it good. And it will be.好，我认为，如果你想要一个美好的未来，就采取行动让它变好。它就会变好。
Chris AndersonElon, thank you for all this time. That is a beautiful place to end. Thanks for all you're doing.Elon，谢谢你给我们这么多时间。这是一个非常美好的结尾。谢谢你为世界所做的一切。
Elon MuskYou're welcome.不客气。