Chris AndersonElon, what kind of crazy dream would persuade you to think of trying to take on the auto industry and build an all-electric car?Elon，是什么样的疯狂梦想让你产生了进军汽车行业、造一辆纯电动车的念头？
Elon MuskWell, it goes back to when I was in university. I thought about, what are the problems that are most likely to affect the future of the world or the future of humanity? I think it's extremely important that we have sustainable transport and sustainable energy production. That sort of overall sustainable energy problem is the biggest problem that we have to solve this century, independent of environmental concerns. In fact, even if producing CO2 was good for the environment, given that we're going to run out of hydrocarbons, we need to find some sustainable means of operating.这得追溯到我上大学的时候。我当时在想，哪些问题最有可能影响世界的未来，或者说人类的未来？我认为，拥有可持续的交通和可持续的能源生产极其重要。可持续能源这个大问题，是我们这个世纪必须解决的最大问题，不管你怎么看环境问题都一样。事实上，就算排放 CO2 对环境有好处，既然化石燃料终有耗尽的一天，我们也必须找到某种可持续的运作方式。
Chris AndersonMost of American electricity comes from burning fossil fuels. How can an electric car that plugs into that electricity help?美国大部分电力来自燃烧化石燃料。插电充电的电动车，怎么可能对此有所帮助呢？
Elon MuskRight. There's two elements to that answer. One is that, even if you take the same source fuel and produce power at the power plant and use it to charge electric cars, you're still better off. So if you take, say, natural gas, which is the most prevalent hydrocarbon source fuel, if you burn that in a modern General Electric natural gas turbine, you'll get about 60 percent efficiency. If you put that same fuel in an internal combustion engine car, you get about 20 percent efficiency.对，这个问题有两个层面。首先，就算你用同一种原料在发电厂发电，再用它给电动车充电，结果依然更划算。比如天然气——它是最普遍的化石燃料——如果把它送进 General Electric 最先进的燃气轮机燃烧，效率大约能达到 60%。同样的燃料放进内燃机汽车，效率只有大约 20%。
Elon MuskAnd the reason is, in the stationary power plant, you can afford to have something that weighs a lot more, is voluminous, and you can take the waste heat and run a steam turbine and generate a secondary power source. So in effect, even after you've taken transmission loss into account and everything, even using the same source fuel, you're at least twice as better off charging an electric car than burning it at the power plant.原因在于，固定式发电厂可以不在乎重量和体积，还可以把废热用来驱动蒸汽轮机，产生第二级电力。所以即便把线路传输损耗全部算进去，哪怕用的是同一种燃料，给电动车充电也至少比在发电厂直接燃烧高效一倍。
Chris AndersonThat scale delivers efficiency.规模效应带来了效率。
Elon MuskYes, it does. And then the other point is, we have to have sustainable means of power generation anyway, electricity generation. So given that we have to solve sustainable electricity generation, then it makes sense for us to have electric cars as the mode of transport.是的，没错。还有另一点：无论如何，我们都必须找到可持续的发电方式，也就是可持续的电力生产方式。既然我们必须解决可持续发电的问题，那把电动车作为交通工具就是顺理成章的事了。
Chris AndersonSo we've got some video here of the Tesla being assembled, which, if we could play that first video — So what is innovative about this process in this vehicle?我们有一段 Tesla 组装过程的视频，先播第一段——这辆车的生产流程有哪些创新之处？
Elon MuskSure. So, in order to accelerate the advent of electric transport — and I should say that I think, actually, all modes of transport will become fully electric, with the ironic exception of rockets. There's just no way around Newton's third law. The question is how do you accelerate the advent of electric transport? And in order to do that for cars, you have to come up with a really energy efficient car, so that means making it incredibly light,好的。为了加速电动交通的到来——我必须说，我其实认为，所有交通方式最终都将完全电动化，唯一讽刺的例外是火箭。牛顿第三定律绕不过去。那么，怎样加速电动交通的普及？对于汽车来说，你必须做出一辆能效极高的车，这意味着要让它非常轻，
Elon Muskand so what you're seeing here is the only all-aluminum body and chassis car made in North America. In fact, we applied a lot of rocket design techniques to make the car light despite having a very large battery pack. And then it also has the lowest drag coefficient of any car of its size. So as a result, the energy usage is very low, and it has the most advanced battery pack, and that's what gives it the range that's competitive, so you can actually have on the order of a 250-mile range.所以你们看到的，是北美唯一一款全铝车身和底盘的量产车。事实上，我们借鉴了大量火箭设计技术，在装备大型电池组的情况下依然把车身做得很轻。同时，这辆车同级别中风阻系数最低。因此能耗非常少，而且它搭载了最先进的电池组，这才赋予了它有竞争力的续航里程——单次充电大约可以行驶 250 英里。
Chris AndersonI mean, those battery packs are incredibly heavy, but you think the math can still work out intelligently — by combining light body, heavy battery, you can still gain spectacular efficiency.电池组重得惊人，但你认为这道数学题还是能算通——轻车身加上重电池，依然能实现惊人的效率。
Elon MuskExactly. The rest of the car has to be very light to offset the mass of the pack, and then you have to have a low drag coefficient so that you have good highway range. And in fact, customers of the Model S are sort of competing with each other to try to get the highest possible range. I think somebody recently got 420 miles out of a single charge.没错。车身其他部分必须非常轻，以弥补电池组的重量，同时还要有低风阻系数，这样高速公路续航才够用。事实上，Model S 的车主们都在互相较劲，看谁能跑出最高单次续航。我记得最近有人单次充电跑了 420 英里。
Chris AndersonBruno Bowden, who's here, did that, broke the world record.在场的 Bruno Bowden 就做到了，打破了世界纪录。
Elon MuskCongratulations.恭喜。
Chris AndersonThat was the good news. The bad news was that, to do it, he had to drive at 18 miles an hour constant speed and got pulled over by the cops. (Laughter)好消息说完了。坏消息是，他为此不得不以 18 英里每小时的恒定速度行驶，结果被警察拦了下来。（笑声）
Elon MuskI mean, you can certainly drive — if you drive it 65 miles an hour, under normal conditions, 250 miles is a reasonable number.我的意思是，你当然可以正常开——65 英里每小时、正常路况下，250 英里是个合理的数字。
Chris AndersonLet's show that second video, showing the Tesla in action on ice. Not at all a dig at The New York Times, this, by the way. What is the most surprising thing about the experience of driving the car?我们来看第二段视频，是 Tesla 在冰面上行驶的画面。顺便说一句，这跟《纽约时报》完全没有关系。开这辆车最让你意外的体验是什么？
Elon MuskIn creating an electric car, the responsiveness of the car is really incredible. So we wanted really to have people feel as though they've almost got to mind meld with the car, so you just feel like you and the car are kind of one, and as you corner and accelerate, it just happens, like the car has ESP. You can do that with an electric car because of its responsiveness. You can't do that with a gasoline car. I think that's really a profound difference, and people only experience that when they have a test drive.造电动车的时候，车子的响应速度真的令人叹为观止。我们真正想做到的，是让人感觉自己几乎与车融为一体，仿佛你和车合二为一——过弯、加速，一切就这么发生了，就好像车子有第六感一样。电动车能做到这一点，正是因为它的响应性。燃油车根本做不到。我觉得这是一个根本性的差异，而且人们只有亲自试驾才能真正体会到。
Chris AndersonI mean, this is a beautiful but expensive car. Is there a road map where this becomes a mass-market vehicle?这是一辆漂亮但昂贵的车。有没有一个路线图，让它变成一款大众市场产品？
Elon MuskYeah. The goal of Tesla has always been to have a sort of three-step process, where version one was an expensive car at low volume, version two is medium priced and medium volume, and then version three would be low price, high volume. So we're at step two at this point. So we had a $100,000 sports car, which was the Roadster. Then we've got the Model S, which starts at around 50,000 dollars.有的。Tesla 的目标从来都是三步走：第一步是少量生产的高价车，第二步是中价位中产量，第三步是低价位高产量。我们现在处于第二步。我们先有了 10 万美元的跑车 Roadster，现在有了 Model S，起售价大约 5 万美元。
Elon MuskAnd our third generation car, which should hopefully be out in about three or four years, will be a $30,000 car. But whenever you've got really new technology, it generally takes about three major versions in order to make it a compelling mass-market product. And so I think we're making progress in that direction, and I feel confident that we'll get there.我们的第三代车，希望能在三到四年内推出，售价 3 万美元。但凡真正全新的技术，通常都需要经历大约三个主要版本，才能成为令人信服的大众市场产品。所以我认为我们正在朝这个方向推进，我有信心我们能做到。
Chris AndersonI mean, right now, if you've got a short commute, you can drive, you can get back, you can charge it at home. There isn't a huge nationwide network of charging stations now that are fast. Do you see that coming, really, truly, or just on a few key routes?现在，如果你每天通勤距离短，可以开着车出去，回来再在家充电。目前全国还没有一个充电快速的大型充电站网络。你觉得这真的会出现吗，还是只会在几条主要路线上有？
Elon MuskThere actually are far more charging stations than people realize, and at Tesla we developed something called a Supercharging technology, and we're offering that, if you buy a Model S, for free, forever. And so this is something that maybe a lot of people don't realize. We actually have California and Nevada covered, and we've got the Eastern seaboard from Boston to D.C. covered.其实充电站的数量远比人们意识到的多得多。Tesla 开发了一项叫做 Supercharging 的技术，如果你购买 Model S，我们会永久免费提供这项服务。这一点很多人可能不知道。我们已经覆盖了加利福尼亚和内华达，以及从波士顿到华盛顿特区的东海岸。
Elon MuskBy the end of this year, you'll be able to drive from L.A. to New York just using the Supercharger network, which charges at five times the rate of anything else. And the key thing is to have a ratio of drive to stop, to stop time, of about six or seven.今年年底之前，你就可以只用 Supercharger 网络从洛杉矶开到纽约，它的充电速度是其他任何充电方式的 5 倍。关键是要让行驶时间与停车时间的比例保持在大约六七比一。
Elon MuskSo if you drive for three hours, you want to stop for 20 or 30 minutes, because that's normally what people will stop for. So if you start a trip at 9 a.m., by noon you want to stop to have a bite to eat, hit the restroom, coffee, and keep going.比如你开了三个小时，就需要停二三十分钟——这本来就是人们正常会停下来休息的时间。如果你早上 9 点出发，到中午就该停下来吃点东西、上个厕所、喝杯咖啡，然后继续上路。
Chris AndersonSo your proposition to consumers is, for the full charge, it could take an hour. So it's common — don't expect to be out of here in 10 minutes. Wait for an hour, but the good news is, you're helping save the planet, and by the way, the electricity is free. You don't pay anything.所以你给消费者的方案是：完整充满电可能需要一个小时，这是常态——别指望十分钟就能搞定。等一个小时，但好处是你在帮助拯救地球，而且顺便说一句，电是免费的，你不用付钱。
Elon MuskActually, what we're expecting is for people to stop for about 20 to 30 minutes, not for an hour. It's actually better to drive for about maybe 160, 170 miles and then stop for half an hour and then keep going. That's the natural cadence of a trip.其实我们预期人们停车大约 20 到 30 分钟，而不是一个小时。更好的做法是开大约 160、170 英里，然后停半小时，再继续上路。这才是一次旅途自然的节奏。
Chris AndersonAll right. So this is only one string to your energy bow. You've been working on this solar company SolarCity. What's unusual about that?好的。这只是你能源布局中的一支箭。你还在推进太阳能公司 SolarCity。它有什么特别之处？
Elon MuskWell, as I mentioned earlier, we have to have sustainable electricity production as well as consumption, so I'm quite confident that the primary means of power generation will be solar. I mean, it's really indirect fusion, is what it is. We've got this giant fusion generator in the sky called the sun, and we just need to tap a little bit of that energy for purposes of human civilization.正如我之前提到的，我们在需要可持续能源消费的同时，也必须有可持续的电力生产。所以我非常有信心，太阳能将成为主要的发电方式。说到底，太阳能其实就是间接的核聚变。天空中有一个巨大的聚变反应堆叫做太阳，我们只需要从中汲取一点点能量，用于人类文明就足够了。
Elon MuskWhat most people know but don't realize they know is that the world is almost entirely solar-powered already. If the sun wasn't there, we'd be a frozen ice ball at three degrees Kelvin, and the sun powers the entire system of precipitation. The whole ecosystem is solar-powered.大多数人都知道、但没有意识到的是：这个世界几乎已经完全靠太阳能驱动了。如果没有太阳，我们就会变成一个绝对零度三度开尔文的冰球，太阳驱动着整个降水系统，整个生态系统都是靠太阳能运转的。
Chris AndersonBut in a gallon of gasoline, you have, effectively, thousands of years of sun power compressed into a small space, so it's hard to make the numbers work right now on solar, and to remotely compete with, for example, natural gas, fracked natural gas. How are you going to build a business here?但一加仑汽油里，浓缩的实际上是数千年的太阳能，所以现在让太阳能的数字算得过来很难，更别提与天然气、比如压裂天然气竞争了。你打算怎么在这里做生意？
Elon MuskWell actually, I'm confident that solar will beat everything, hands down, including natural gas. (Applause)其实，我有信心太阳能将全面碾压其他一切，包括天然气。（掌声）
Chris AndersonHow?怎么做到？
Elon MuskIt must, actually. If it doesn't, we're in deep trouble.它必须做到。如果做不到，我们就麻烦大了。
Chris AndersonBut you're not selling solar panels to consumers. What are you doing?但你不是在卖太阳能板给消费者，你们在做什么？
Elon MuskNo, we actually are. You can buy a solar system or you can lease a solar system. Most people choose to lease. And the thing about solar power is that it doesn't have any feed stock or operational costs, so once it's installed, it's just there. It works for decades. It'll work for probably a century.不，我们其实是在卖的。你可以购买太阳能系统，也可以租赁。大多数人选择租赁。太阳能的好处在于它没有燃料成本，也没有运营成本，一旦安装完成，它就在那里了。可以使用几十年，很可能用上一个世纪。
Elon MuskSo therefore, the key thing to do is to get the cost of that initial installation low, and then get the cost of the financing low, because that interest — those are the two factors that drive the cost of solar. And we've made huge progress in that direction, and that's why I'm confident we'll actually beat natural gas.因此，关键在于降低初始安装成本，同时降低融资成本，因为利息——这两个因素决定了太阳能的成本。我们在这方面已经取得了巨大进展，这也是我有信心我们真的能打败天然气的原因。
Chris AndersonSo your current proposition to consumers is, don't pay so much up front.所以你现在给消费者的方案是，前期不用掏多少钱。
Elon MuskZero.零。
Chris AndersonPay zero up front. We will install panels on your roof. You will then pay — how long is a typical lease?前期零付款。我们帮你在屋顶安装太阳能板，然后你来付——租约通常是多少年？
Elon MuskTypical leases are 20 years, but the value proposition is, as you're sort of alluding to, quite straightforward. It's no money down, and your utility bill decreases.通常是 20 年租约，但价值主张就像你暗示的那样，非常直接：零首付，而且你的电费账单会减少。
Chris AndersonPretty good deal. So that seems like a win for the consumer. No risk, you'll pay less than you're paying now. For you, the dream here then is that — I mean, who owns the electricity from those panels for the longer term? I mean, how do you, the company, benefit?这听起来是个不错的交易。对消费者来说是赢——零风险，电费比现在还低。那对你们公司来说，这个梦想是——那些太阳能板产出的电，长期来看归谁所有？你们公司怎么从中获益？
Elon MuskWell, essentially, SolarCity raises a chunk of capital from, say, a company or a bank. Google is one of our big partners here. And they have an expected return on that capital.基本上，SolarCity 从企业或银行那里募集一大笔资本，Google 是我们主要的合作伙伴之一，这些资本会有预期回报。
Elon MuskWith that capital, SolarCity purchases and installs the panel on the roof and then charges the homeowner or business owner a monthly lease payment, which is less than the utility bill.SolarCity 用这笔资金购买太阳能板并安装到屋顶上，然后向房主或商业业主收取每月租金，金额低于他们原来的电费账单。
Chris AndersonBut you yourself get a long-term commercial benefit from that power. You're kind of building a new type of distributed utility.但你们自己会从这些电力中获得长期的商业收益。你们实际上是在建立一种新型的分布式公用事业。
Elon MuskExactly. What it amounts to is a giant distributed utility. I think it's a good thing, because utilities have been this monopoly, and people haven't had any choice.没错。本质上就是一个巨大的分布式公用电力网络。我认为这是好事，因为公用事业公司一直是垄断的，人们从来没有任何选择。
Elon MuskSo effectively it's the first time there's been competition for this monopoly, because the utilities have been the only ones that owned those power distribution lines, but now it's on your roof. So I think it's actually very empowering for homeowners and businesses.所以这实际上是这个垄断市场出现竞争的第一次——公用事业公司一直是唯一拥有电力输送线路的，但现在那条线路就装在你的屋顶上了。所以我认为这对房主和企业来说真的是一种赋权。
Chris AndersonAnd you really picture a future where a majority of power in America, within a decade or two, or within your lifetime, it goes solar?你真的认为，在未来十到二十年内，或者在你有生之年，美国大部分电力会来自太阳能吗？
Elon MuskI'm extremely confident that solar will be at least a plurality of power, and most likely a majority, and I predict it will be a plurality in less than 20 years. I made that bet with someone —我非常有信心，太阳能至少会占电力来源的最大份额，而且极有可能成为绝对多数，我预测在不到 20 年内它就会占据最大份额。我跟某人打了个赌——
Chris AndersonDefinition of plurality is?"最大份额"的定义是？
Elon MuskMore from solar than any other source.来自太阳能的电力超过任何其他单一来源。
Chris AndersonAh. Who did you make the bet with?啊。你跟谁打的赌？
Elon MuskWith a friend who will remain nameless.一个不方便透露姓名的朋友。
Chris AndersonJust between us. (Laughter)就在你我之间。（笑声）
Elon MuskI made that bet, I think, two or three years ago, so in roughly 18 years, I think we'll see more power from solar than any other source.我想那个赌是两三年前打的，所以大约再过 18 年，我认为太阳能将超过任何其他来源。
Chris AndersonAll right, so let's go back to another bet that you made with yourself, I guess — a kind of crazy bet. You'd made some money from the sale of PayPal. You decided to build a space company. Why on Earth would someone do that? (Laughter)好，那我们回到另一个你跟自己打的赌——某种意义上的疯狂赌注。你靠出售 PayPal 赚了一些钱，然后决定去建一家太空公司。世界上到底是什么人会这么干？（笑声）
Elon MuskI got that question a lot, that's true. People would say, "Did you hear the joke about the guy who made a small fortune in the space industry?" Obviously, "He started with a large one," is the punchline. And so I tell people, well, I was trying to figure out the fastest way to turn a large fortune into a small one. And they'd look at me, like, "Is he serious?"这个问题我没少被问到，确实。人们会说："你听过那个关于某人在航天行业小赚一笔的笑话吗？"答案当然是"他一开始有一大笔钱"。所以我告诉大家，嗯，我当时就是在琢磨怎样最快地把大钱变成小钱。然后他们就会盯着我看，"他是认真的吗？"
Chris AndersonAnd strangely, you were. So what happened?奇怪的是，你还真是认真的。后来发生了什么？
Elon MuskIt was a close call. Things almost didn't work out. We came very close to failure, but we managed to get through that point in 2008.非常险。差一点就失败了。我们离失败非常近，但最终在 2008 年撑过来了。
Elon MuskThe goal of SpaceX is to try to advance rocket technology, and in particular to try to crack a problem that I think is vital for humanity to become a space-faring civilization, which is to have a rapidly and fully reusable rocket.SpaceX 的目标是推进火箭技术，特别是攻克一个我认为对人类成为星际文明至关重要的难题——实现快速且完全可复用的火箭。
Chris AndersonWould humanity become a space-faring civilization? So that was a dream of yours, in a way, from a young age? You've dreamed of Mars and beyond?人类成为星际文明？这是你从小就有的梦想吗？你一直梦想着火星和更远的地方？
Elon MuskI did build rockets when I was a kid, but I didn't think I'd be involved in this. It was really more from the standpoint of what are the things that need to happen in order for the future to be an exciting and inspiring one?我小时候确实造过火箭，但我没有想到自己会投身其中。更多是从这个角度出发：要让未来成为一个令人振奋、鼓舞人心的未来，有哪些事情必须发生？
Elon MuskAnd I really think there's a fundamental difference, if you sort of look into the future, between a humanity that is a space-faring civilization, that's out there exploring the stars, on multiple planets — I think that's really exciting — compared with one where we are forever confined to Earth until some eventual extinction event.我真的认为，展望未来，有一个根本性的差别：一种是人类成为星际文明，在外面探索星辰、生活在多个星球上——我觉得那真的令人激动——另一种则是我们永远被困在地球上，直到某个灭绝事件终结一切。
Chris AndersonSo you've somehow slashed the cost of building a rocket by 75 percent, depending on how you calculate it. How on Earth have you done that? NASA has been doing this for years. How have you done this?你们不知用什么方法把造火箭的成本削减了 75%，具体数字取决于怎么算。你到底是怎么做到的？NASA 干了这么多年都没做到。你是怎么做的？
Elon MuskWell, we've made significant advances in the technology of the airframe, the engines, the electronics and the launch operation. There's a long list of innovations that we've come up with there that are a little difficult to communicate in this talk, but —嗯，我们在机身、发动机、电子设备和发射运营方面都取得了重大进展。我们在这方面有一长串创新，在这个演讲里很难一一说清楚，但——
Chris AndersonNot least because you could still get copied, right? You haven't patented this stuff. It's really interesting to me.不仅如此，因为你还可能被复制，对吧？你们没有申请专利，这一点我觉得非常有意思。
Elon MuskNo, we don't patent.对，我们不申请专利。
Chris AndersonYou didn't patent because you think it's more dangerous to patent than not to patent.你们不申请专利，是因为觉得申请专利比不申请专利更危险。
Elon MuskSince our primary competitors are national governments, the enforceability of patents is questionable. (Laughter) (Applause)因为我们的主要竞争对手是各国政府，专利的可执行性存疑。（笑声）（掌声）
Chris AndersonThat's really, really interesting. But the big innovation is still ahead, and you're working on it now. Tell us about this.这真的非常非常有意思。但最大的创新还在前方，你们现在正在攻关。给我们讲讲这个。
Elon MuskRight, so the big innovation —对，最大的创新——
Chris AndersonIn fact, let's roll that video and you can talk us through it, what's happening here.其实，我们来播那段视频，你一边解说给我们听，这里发生了什么。
Elon MuskAbsolutely. So the thing about rockets is that they're all expendable. All rockets that fly today are fully expendable. The space shuttle was an attempt at a reusable rocket, but even the main tank of the space shuttle was thrown away every time,当然。关于火箭，有一点是：它们都是一次性的。今天飞行的所有火箭都是完全一次性的。航天飞机是对可复用火箭的一次尝试，但就连航天飞机的主燃料箱每次都要扔掉，
Elon Muskand the parts that were reusable took a 10,000-person group nine months to refurbish for flight. So the space shuttle ended up costing a billion dollars per flight. Obviously that doesn't work very well for —而那些可重复使用的部件，需要一个一万人的团队花九个月时间整修才能再次飞行。结果是航天飞机每次飞行要花掉十亿美元。显然，这对于——
Chris AndersonWhat just happened there? We just saw something land?那里刚才发生了什么？我们看到有东西着陆了？
Elon MuskThat's right. So it's important that the rocket stages be able to come back, to be able to return to the launch site and be ready to launch again within a matter of hours.没错。关键是火箭各级必须能够返回，能够飞回发射场，并在几小时内准备好再次发射。
Chris AndersonWow. Reusable rockets.哇。可复用火箭。
Elon MuskYes. (Applause)是的。（掌声）
Elon MuskAnd so what a lot of people don't realize is, the cost of the fuel, of the propellant, is very small. It's much like on a jet. So the cost of the propellant is about .3 percent of the cost of the rocket. So it's possible to achieve, let's say, roughly 100-fold improvement in the cost of spaceflight if you can effectively reuse the rocket. That's why it's so important.很多人没有意识到的是，燃料——推进剂——的成本非常低，就像喷气式飞机一样。推进剂的成本大约只占火箭总成本的 0.3%。所以，如果你能有效地复用火箭，航天飞行成本降低大约 100 倍是可以实现的。这就是为什么它如此重要。
Elon MuskEvery mode of transport that we use — whether it's planes, trains, automobiles, bikes, horses — is reusable, but not rockets. So we must solve this problem in order to become a space-faring civilization.我们使用的每一种交通方式——不管是飞机、火车、汽车、自行车还是马——都是可重复使用的，唯独火箭不是。所以我们必须解决这个问题，才能成为星际文明。
Chris AndersonYou asked me the question earlier of how popular traveling on cruises would be if you had to burn your ships afterward.你之前问过我，如果每次游轮结束都要把船烧掉，邮轮旅行会有多受欢迎。
Elon MuskCertain cruises are apparently highly problematic. Definitely more expensive.某些邮轮显然问题很大。肯定会贵多了。
Chris AndersonSo that's potentially absolutely disruptive technology, and, I guess, paves the way for your dream to actually take, at some point, humanity to Mars at scale. You'd like to see a colony on Mars.这是一项具有绝对颠覆性的技术，我想这也为你的梦想铺平了道路——在某个时间节点，真正把人类大规模送上火星。你希望在火星上建立殖民地。
Elon MuskYeah, exactly. SpaceX, or some combination of companies and governments, needs to make progress in the direction of making life multi-planetary, of establishing a base on another planet — on Mars, being the only realistic option — and then building that base up until we're a true multi-planet species.是的，没错。SpaceX，或者某种企业与政府的组合，需要朝着让生命成为多行星存在的方向推进——在另一个星球上建立基地，火星是唯一现实的选择——然后把那个基地不断扩建，直到我们真正成为多星球物种。
Chris AndersonSo progress on this "let's make it reusable" — how is that going? That was just a simulation video we saw. How's it going?那么"让火箭可复用"这件事进展如何？我们刚才看到的只是模拟视频。实际进展怎么样？
Elon MuskWe're actually — we've been making some good progress recently with something we call the Grasshopper Test Project, where we're testing the vertical landing portion of the flight, the sort of terminal portion which is quite tricky. And we've had some good tests.我们最近在一个叫做 Grasshopper 测试项目的计划上取得了不少进展。我们在测试飞行的垂直着陆阶段，也就是末端阶段——这部分相当棘手。我们已经做了一些不错的测试。
Chris AndersonCan we see that?可以看看吗？
Elon MuskYeah.可以。
Elon MuskSo that's just to give a sense of scale. We dressed a cowboy as Johnny Cash and bolted the mannequin to the rocket. (Laughter)这个只是给大家建立一个尺度概念。我们把一个牛仔打扮成 Johnny Cash 的样子，把这个人体模型用螺栓固定在火箭上。（笑声）
Chris AndersonAll right, let's see that video then, because this is actually amazing when you think about it. You've never seen this before. A rocket blasting off and then —好的，那我们来看那段视频——因为认真想想，这真的非常了不起。你以前从来没见过这个。一枚火箭点火升空，然后——
Elon MuskYeah, so that rocket is about the size of a 12-story building. (Rocket launch) So now it's hovering at about 40 meters, and it's constantly adjusting the angle, the pitch and yaw of the main engine, and maintaining roll with cold gas thrusters.是的，那枚火箭大约有 12 层楼那么高。（火箭发射）现在它悬停在大约 40 米的高度，持续调整主发动机的偏航角和俯仰角，同时用冷气推力器维持滚转姿态。
Chris AndersonHow cool is that? (Applause)这也太酷了！（掌声）
Chris AndersonElon, how have you done this? These projects are so — PayPal, SolarCity, Tesla, SpaceX — they're so spectacularly different, they're such ambitious projects at scale. How on Earth has one person been able to innovate in this way? What is it about you?Elon，你是怎么做到这一切的？这些项目是多么——PayPal、SolarCity、Tesla、SpaceX——如此天差地别，如此宏大的规模。一个人怎么可能以这种方式不断创新？你身上有什么特别之处？
Elon MuskI don't know, actually. I don't have a good answer for you. I work a lot. I mean, a lot.说实话，我也不知道。我没有一个好答案。我工作很多。我的意思是，真的很多。
Chris AndersonWell, I have a theory.嗯，我有一个理论。
Elon MuskOkay. All right.好的，说来听听。
Chris AndersonMy theory is that you have an ability to think at a system level of design that pulls together design, technology and business — so if TED was TBD, design, technology and business, into one package — synthesize it in a way that very few people can and, this is the critical thing, feel so damn confident in that clicked-together package that you take crazy risks. You bet your fortune on it, and you seem to have done that multiple times.我的理论是，你有一种能力，能在系统层面思考设计，把设计、技术和商业整合在一起——如果 TED 是 TBD，设计、技术和商业——打包成一个整体。你能以极少有人能做到的方式把它们综合起来，而且，这才是关键，你对那个组合在一起的方案有强烈的信心，信心强到你会去冒疯狂的风险。你把自己的财富都押进去，而且好像做了不止一次。
Chris AndersonI mean, almost no one can do that. Is that — could we have some of that secret sauce? Can we put it into our education system? Can someone learn from you? It is truly amazing what you've done.几乎没有人能做到这一点。这种秘诀能被复制吗？能放进我们的教育体系吗？有没有人能向你学习？你做到的这些真的令人叹为观止。
Elon MuskWell, thanks. Thank you. Well, I do think there's a good framework for thinking. It is physics — you know, the sort of first principles reasoning. What I mean by that is, boil things down to their fundamental truths and reason up from there, as opposed to reasoning by analogy. Through most of our life, we get through life by reasoning by analogy, which essentially means copying what other people do with slight variations. And you have to do that. Otherwise, mentally, you wouldn't be able to get through the day.谢谢，谢谢。我确实认为有一套很好的思维框架，那就是物理学——也就是所谓的第一性原理推理。我的意思是，把事物拆解到最基本的真相，然后从那里向上推理，而不是靠类比推理。我们大多数时候都靠类比推理过日子，本质上就是模仿别人的做法，稍作变化。这是必须的，否则你根本无法度过每一天。
Elon MuskBut when you want to do something new, you have to apply the physics approach. Physics is really figuring out how to discover new things that are counterintuitive, like quantum mechanics. It's really counterintuitive. So I think that's an important thing to do, and then also to really pay attention to negative feedback, and solicit it, particularly from friends. This may sound like simple advice, but hardly anyone does that, and it's incredibly helpful. Boys and girls watching, study physics.但当你想做全新的事情时，你就必须用物理学的方法。物理学本质上就是搞清楚如何发现那些违反直觉的新事物，就像量子力学——它真的非常违反直觉。所以我认为这是很重要的一件事。另外，要真正关注负面反馈，主动去征求，尤其是向朋友征求。这听起来像是简单的建议，但几乎没有人这样做，而它又极其有帮助。正在看的男孩女孩们，去学物理吧。
Chris AndersonLearn from this man. Elon Musk, I wish we had all day, but thank you so much for coming to TED.向这位先生学习。Elon Musk，我真希望我们有一整天可以聊，但非常感谢你来 TED。
Elon MuskThank you.谢谢。
Chris AndersonThat was awesome. That was really, really cool. Look at that. (Applause) Just take a bow. That was fantastic.太精彩了。真的非常非常精彩。看看这个。（掌声）来，鞠个躬。太棒了。
Chris AndersonThank you so much.非常感谢。