Larry FinkHow many quotes are you going to want that are after this session?这场对话结束后，你想要多少条引言？
Elon MuskI don’t know, five, haha!不知道，五条吧，哈哈！
Larry FinkGood afternoon everyone, it’s great to see everybody here. It has been an amazing week. Thrilled Elon Musk come from California. Thank you, Elon.大家下午好，很高兴见到各位。这真是精彩的一周。Elon Musk 从加州赶来，我非常高兴。谢谢你，Elon。
Elon MuskYou’re most welcome. I heard about the formation of the Peace Summit, and it’s like, is that P-I-E-C-E, a little piece? Haha. Or Greenland? A little piece of Venezuela? All we want is peace.不客气。我听说成立了一个"和平峰会"，心想——这个 peace，是 P-I-E-C-E，一小块的意思吗？哈哈。还是说要一块格陵兰？一小块委内瑞拉？我们要的不过是和平嘛。
Larry FinkOkay. As they said, I’m pretty proud CEO BlackRock. Since we went public, the compounding return of BlackRock to our shareholders was 21%. Since Elon took Tesla public, his compounded return is 43%. This is just another advertisement for everybody, especially for Europeans. This is why more citizens should be investing with growth, investing in their countries. Imagine if a lot of pension funds invested with Elon when Tesla went public, and how much return would be with all the pension funds that invested side-by-side with Elon and the growth. So a spectacular return. There’s very few companies—well, I don’t think there is any other company as large as Tesla today that has compounded returns. Congratulations.好。就像他们说的，我作为 BlackRock 的 CEO 还是挺自豪的。自 BlackRock 上市以来，我们给股东的复利回报是 21%。而 Elon 让 Tesla 上市以来，他的复利回报是 43%。这对所有人、尤其是欧洲人来说又是一个很好的例证——这正是为什么更多公民应该把钱投到增长上、投到自己国家的增长上。想象一下，如果很多养老金在 Tesla 上市时就跟 Elon 一起投，跟着 Elon 并肩持有这份增长，那些养老金会获得多少回报。这是极为亮眼的回报。几乎没有其他公司——我觉得根本没有——像今天 Tesla 这么大的体量还能实现这样的复利回报。恭喜。
Elon MuskWe have an incredible team at Tesla. and so thats the reason!Tesla 有一支无与伦比的团队，这才是真正的原因！
Larry FinkI want to get into the meaningful component about technology, the possibilities. I want to talk about AI and robotics, energy, space, and the progress ultimately coming down to engineering. Engineering discipline, scale, execution. Few people, if not anyone, has the experience, and the fortitude to confront these issues head-on—not just ideas, but execution across so many different technologies. Elon, that’s why it is important for us to have this dialogue here in Davos. So you are presently building on AI and robotics, space, energy—all at the same time. When you look across those efforts, what do they have in common from an engineering standpoint?我想深入聊聊技术这个有分量的话题，以及它的可能性。我想谈谈 AI 和机器人、能源、太空，以及最终落脚在工程上的进步——工程纪律、规模化、执行力。很少有人，乃至几乎没有人，拥有如此丰富的经验与魄力，能在这么多不同技术领域正面迎击这些挑战——不只是想法，而是真正落地执行。Elon，这正是我们在达沃斯进行这场对话的意义所在。你眼下同时推进 AI 与机器人、太空、能源的工作。从工程角度看，这些努力有什么共同点？
Elon MuskWell, they’re all very difficult technology challenges. But the overall goal of my companies is to maximize the future of civilization—like basically maximizing the probability that civilization has a great future. And to expand consciousness beyond Earth. S嗯，这些都是极其艰难的技术挑战。但我旗下公司的总体目标，是最大化文明的未来——本质上就是最大化文明拥有美好未来的概率。以及把意识扩展到地球之外。
Elon Musko if you take SpaceX, for example, SpaceX is about advancing rocket technology to the point where we can extend life and consciousness beyond Earth—to the Moon, Mars, eventually other star systems. I think we should always view consciousness, life, as precarious and delicate. Because to the best of our knowledge, we don’t know if life is anywhere else. You know, I’m often asked, are there aliens among us? And I’ll say that I am one. They don’t believe me.拿 SpaceX 来说，SpaceX 是要推进火箭技术，直到我们能将生命与意识延伸到地球之外——到月球、火星，最终是其他星系。我认为我们应该始终把意识、把生命视为脆弱而珍贵的存在。因为就我们所知，我们根本不知道生命是否存在于其他地方。你知道，经常有人问我：外星人就在我们中间吗？我会说，我就是。他们不信。
Elon MuskOkay. So I think if anyone would know there are aliens among us, it would be me. And 9,000 satellites up there, and not once have we had to maneuver around an alien spaceship. So like, I don’t know. Bottom line is, we need to assume that life and consciousness is extremely rare, and it might only be us. And if that’s the case, then we do everything possible to ensure the light of consciousness is not extinguished.好吧。所以我觉得，如果说谁会知道外星人就在我们中间，那一定是我。我们有 9,000 颗卫星在天上，但一次都没有碰到需要绕开外星飞船的情况。所以，我也不知道。底线就是：我们必须假设生命与意识极其罕见，也许只有我们。如果真是这样，那我们就要竭尽一切，确保意识之光不被熄灭。
Elon MuskBecause effectively, the image in my mind is of a tiny candle in a vast darkness—tiny candle of consciousness that could easily go out. And that’s why it’s important to make life multiplanetary. Such that if there is a natural disaster or man-made disaster on Earth, that consciousness continues. That’s the purpose of SpaceX.因为我脑海中的画面，实际上就是——广袤黑暗中一根渺小的蜡烛——意识的微弱烛光，随时可能熄灭。这就是为什么让生命成为多行星物种至关重要。这样一来，即便地球上发生自然灾害或人为灾难，意识仍能延续。这就是 SpaceX 存在的意义。
Elon MuskTesla is obviously about sustainable technology. And also at this point, we’ve sort of added to our mission sustainable abundance. So with robotics and AI, this is really the path to abundance for all. If you say, you know, people often talk about solving global poverty, or essentially how do we give everyone a very high standard of living—I think the only way to do this is AI and robotics. Which doesn’t mean that it’s without its issues. We need to be very careful with AI. We need to be very careful with robotics. We don’t want to find ourselves in a James Cameron movie—you know, Terminator. He’s great. Great movies. Love his movies. But well, we don’t want to be in Terminator, obviously.Tesla 显然是关于可持续技术的。而且在这个阶段，我们在使命里加入了"可持续丰盛"这个维度。AI 与机器人，才是真正通往全人类丰盛的路径。大家常说要消除全球贫困，或者说怎么让每个人都拥有很高的生活水准——我认为唯一的办法就是 AI 和机器人。这不意味着没有问题。我们对 AI 必须非常小心，对机器人也必须非常小心。我们不想发现自己身处 James Cameron 的电影里——《终结者》你懂的。他很厉害，电影拍得很棒，我爱他的电影。但我们显然不想活在《终结者》里。
Elon MuskBut if you have ubiquitous AI that is essentially free or close to it, and ubiquitous robotics, then you will have an explosion in the global economy—an expansion in the global economy that is truly beyond all precedent.但如果 AI 无处不在、近乎免费，机器人也无处不在，那全球经济将会爆发式增长——真正史无前例的扩张。
Larry FinkCan that expansion be broad? Or is it narrow? And how can it be broadened the global economy?这种扩张能是普惠的吗？还是只惠及少数人？如何才能让全球经济更广泛地受益？
Elon MuskWay to think of it is that if you have a large number of humanoid robots, the economic output is the average productivity per robot times the number of robots. And actually my prediction is in the benign scenario of the future that we will—the robots will actually make so many robots and AI that they will actually saturate all human needs. Meaning you won’t be able to even think of something to ask the robot for at a certain point. Like there would be such an abundance of goods and services. Because my predictions are there’ll be more robots than people.可以这样想：如果你有大量人形机器人，经济产出就等于每台机器人的平均生产力乘以机器人数量。实际上我的预测是，在未来的良性情境下，机器人会生产出那么多机器人和 AI，以至于真正满足所有人类的需求——也就是说，到了某个阶段，你甚至想不出还能让机器人再干什么了。商品和服务会丰盛到那种程度。因为我预测机器人的数量会超过人类。
Larry FinkSo but how do you then have human purpose in that scenario?但在那种情境下，人类的意义和目的感从何而来？
Elon MuskYeah, I mean, you know, there are—nothing’s perfect. But I mean, it is a necessary… Like, you can’t have both. You can’t have work that has to be done and amazing abundance for all. Because if it’s work that has to be done, and only some people can do it, then you can’t have abundance. It’s narrow.是啊，没什么是完美的。但这是必然的……你无法两全其美。你不可能同时拥有必须由人完成的工作，又拥有全民的极大丰盛。因为如果工作必须由人来做，而只有部分人能做，那就不可能有普惠的丰盛。只会是少数人的。
Larry FinkNarrow.少数人的。
Elon MuskExactly. So but if you have billions of humanoid robots—I think there will be… I think everyone on Earth is going to have one and gonna want one. Because who wouldn’t want a robot to, you know, assuming it’s very safe—watch over your kids, take care of your pet? If you have elderly parents—a lot of friends of mine have elderly parents, it’s very difficult to take care of them. Expensive. Yeah, it’s expensive, and there just aren’t enough people to take care of the old people. So if you—if they had a robot that could take care of and protect elderly parents, I think that would be a great, amazing thing to have. And I think we will have those things. So overall, I’m very optimistic about the future. I think we’re headed for a future of amazing abundance, which is very cool. And definitely we are in the most interesting time in history. I don’t think there is a more interesting time in history!没错。但如果你有数十亿台人形机器人——我认为会有……我觉得地球上每个人都会想拥有一台。因为谁不想要一台机器人呢——假设它非常安全——帮你看孩子、照顾宠物？如果你有年迈的父母——我很多朋友都有年迈的父母，照顾他们非常难。很贵。是的，贵，而且就是没有足够的人手来照顾老人。如果他们有一台机器人可以照顾和保护年迈的父母，我觉得那会是一件非常了不起的事。我认为我们会拥有这些。总体而言，我对未来非常乐观。我认为我们正走向一个令人叹为观止的丰盛未来，这非常酷。我们绝对身处史上最有趣的时代，我认为历史上从未有过比这更有趣的时刻！
Elon MuskAGING衰老
Larry FinkCan we reverse aging in this new history? Or are we going to see it?在这段新的历史中，我们能逆转衰老吗？还是说我们会亲眼见到它？
Elon MuskYou know, haven’t put much time into the aging stuff, but I do think it is a very solvable problem. Like, you can—I think when we figure out what causes aging, I think we’ll find it’s incredibly obvious, that it’s not a subtle thing. The reason I say it’s not a subtle thing is because all the cells in your body pretty much age at the same rate. You have never seen someone with an old left arm and a young right arm ever in my life. So why… You know, there is some benefit to death, by the way. It’s like, there’s a reason why we don’t actually have a longer lifespan. Because if people do live forever or for a very long time, I think there’s some risk of an ossification of society—of things just getting kind of locked in place. And yeah, it just may become stultifying, a lack of vibrancy. But that’s it. Do I think we’ll figure out ways to extend life and maybe even reverse aging? I think that’s highly likely.你知道，我在衰老这件事上没花多少精力，但我确实认为这是一个完全可以解决的问题。我觉得，当我们弄清楚衰老的原因时，会发现它其实非常显而易见，根本不是什么微妙难解的事。我之所以这么说，是因为你体内几乎所有细胞都以差不多的速度衰老。你从没见过一个人左臂老、右臂年轻对吧，我这辈子从没见过。所以……你知道，死亡其实有它的好处。我们的寿命没有更长是有原因的。因为如果人们永生或活得极长，我认为存在一种社会僵化的风险——事情会被锁死在原地。是的，可能会变得沉闷，失去活力。但就这些。我认为我们会找到延长寿命、甚至逆转衰老的方法吗？我认为这极有可能。
Larry FinkLooking forward to that. So in the future you talk about—their AI models, autonomous machines, rockets—depends on massive increases of compute, massive increases in energy. Expensive energy, manufacturing scale. What are the bottlenecks to get there? And once again, with all that expenditures, how can we make sure it is broad, not narrow?很期待那一天。说到你谈到的未来——AI 模型、自主机器、火箭——都依赖计算力的大幅提升，以及能源的大规模增加。昂贵的能源、制造业的规模化。通往那里的瓶颈是什么？而且，鉴于如此巨大的投入，我们如何确保它是普惠的，而不是只属于少数人？
Elon MuskI just think the natural thing will be very broad because AI companies will seek as many customers as they possibly can. And the cost of AI is already low and plummeting every year—almost the cost of AI is meaningfully changing on a month basis.我认为自然而然就会非常广泛，因为 AI 公司会尽可能争取更多客户。AI 的成本已经很低，而且还在逐年暴跌——AI 成本几乎是按月在发生实质性变化。
Larry FinkThere are open models now everywhere.现在到处都是开源模型了。
Elon MuskYes. Very good open models. The open models only lack what may be a year behind the closed models. So I think, yeah, AI companies will seek as many customers as possible, which means they’ll provide AI to the world.是的，非常好的开源模型。开源模型落后闭源模型的可能也就一年左右。所以我认为，AI 公司会争取尽可能多的客户，这意味着它们会向全世界提供 AI。
Larry FinkBut the cost of getting to their compute chips, the fab, power—powering that. To me, what are those? It is a huge factor.但要获得算力芯片、晶圆厂、供电的成本——给这些供电，对我来说，这些是个巨大的因素。
Elon MuskI think the limiting factor for AI deployment is fundamentally electrical power.我认为制约 AI 部署的根本瓶颈是电力。
Larry FinkIt’s energy. Yeah.是能源。对。
Elon MuskWe were seeing the rate of AI chip production increase exponentially, but the rate of electricity being brought online is….我们看到 AI 芯片产量呈指数级增长，但电力上线的速度……
Larry Fink5%, 4% a year max.每年最多 5%、4%。
Elon MuskYes, it’s clear very soon—maybe later this year—we will be producing more chips than we can turn on. Except for China. China’s growth in electricity is tremendous.是的，很明显，很快——也许就在今年晚些时候——我们生产的芯片会多到根本开不起来。中国除外。中国的电力增长非常惊人。
Larry FinkThey are building 100 gigawatts of nuclear as we speak.他们现在正在建 100 gigawatts 的核电。
Larry FinkSOLAR太阳能
Elon MuskActually solar is the biggest thing in China. So China is—I believe Chinese production capacity on solar is 1,500 gigawatts a year, and they’re deploying over 1,000 gigawatts a year of solar. Now, you know, for continuous solar load, you divide that by roughly 4 or 5. Call it around 250 gigawatts of steady-state power paired with batteries.其实太阳能才是中国最大的那块。中国——我相信中国的太阳能生产能力是每年 1,500 gigawatts，他们每年部署超过 1,000 gigawatts 的太阳能。要得到持续的太阳能负载，大约除以 4 或 5。姑且算 250 gigawatts 的稳态电力，再配上储能电池。
Elon MuskAnd that’s a very big number—half the average power usage in the US. US power usage on average is 500 gigawatts. China. just with solar, solar that can provide steady-state power and batteries can do half of the US electricity output per year just from solar.这是个非常大的数字——相当于美国平均用电量的一半。美国的平均用电量是 500 gigawatts。中国仅凭太阳能，加上能提供稳态电力的电池储能，每年就能产生相当于美国全部电力输出一半的能量，全靠太阳能。
Elon MuskSolar’s by far the bigger source of energy. And actually when you look beyond Earth—or even on Earth, but certainly beyond Earth—the sun rounds up to 100% of all energy. This is an important thing to consider. So the sun is 99.8% of the mass of the solar system. Jupiter is about 0.1%, and everything else is miscellaneous. Now even if you were to burn Jupiter in a thermonuclear reactor, this up the amount of energy produced by the sun would still round to 100%, because Jupiter is only 0.1%. If you teleported three more Jupiters into our solar system and burnt three more Jupiters and everything else in the solar system, the sun’s energy would still round up to 100%. So it is really all about the sun. And that is why one of the things we are doing with SpaceX within a few years is launching solar-powered AI satellites. Because space is really the source of immense power. Then you don’t need to take any room on Earth. There is so much room in space and can scale to hundreds of terawatts a year.太阳能目前是能源中最大的来源。事实上，当你放眼地球之外——甚至就在地球上，更不用说地球之外——太阳能四舍五入就是 100% 的全部能量来源。这是一个值得深入思考的重要问题。太阳占了太阳系质量的 99.8%，木星大约 0.1%，其他一切都是零散的杂项。现在，即使你把木星丢进热核反应堆燃烧，增加的能量与太阳产生的能量相比，仍然四舍五入等于 100%，因为木星只占 0.1%。如果你把三颗木星传送进我们的太阳系，把三颗木星和太阳系里的其他所有东西都烧掉，太阳的能量仍然会四舍五入到 100%。所以，关键就在于太阳。正因如此，我们在 SpaceX 正在做的事情之一，是在几年内发射太阳能驱动的 AI 卫星。因为太空才是无与伦比的巨大能量来源。不需要占用地球上任何空间，太空里有无穷的空间，而且可以扩展到每年数百 terawatts。
Larry FinkElon and I have had these conversations before, but why don’t you tell the audience what would it take for the United States in what geography would it take that solar field electrify the United States? Let me ask a question: why aren’t we doing it?Elon 和我之前谈过这些，但你能告诉台下的观众——在美国的什么地理位置，需要多大面积的太阳能电场才能为美国供电？我想问一个问题：我们为什么没有在做这件事？
Elon MuskSo rough way is 100 miles by 100 miles—160 kilometers by 160 kilometers—on solar is enough to power the entire United States. So 100-mile by 100-mile area. You can take a small corner of Utah, Nevada, New Mexico—obviously wouldn’t want it all in one place—but there was very small percentage of area of US to generate all electricity that US uses. And same is true actually for Europe. You could take a small part of your energy—take relatively unpopulated areas of say Spain and Sicily, and generate all electricity power that Europe needs.粗略估算是 100 英里乘 100 英里——也就是 160 公里乘 160 公里——的太阳能就足以为整个美国供电。所以是 100 英里乘 100 英里的面积。可以取犹他州、内华达州、新墨西哥州的一个小角落——显然不会想全集中在一个地方——但美国很小比例的国土面积就能产生美国所用的全部电力。欧洲同样如此。可以取西班牙和西西里岛人口稀少的小部分地区，就能产生欧洲所需的全部电力。
Larry FinkWhy don’t you think there is a movement towards it here and in the United States? As there is in China?你认为为什么欧洲和美国没有像中国那样推进太阳能的运动？
Elon MuskWell, unfortunately, US tariff barriers for solar are extremely high and this makes economics deploying solar artificially high. Because China makes almost all the solar.遗憾的是，美国对太阳能征收的关税壁垒极高，这使得部署太阳能的经济性被人为抬高。因为太阳能几乎全是中国制造的。
Larry FinkAnd what would it take for Europe or US to build it commercially if it is at scale?那么欧洲或美国要在商业规模上建设太阳能，需要什么条件？
Larry FinkElon Musk : Yeah, I think—well, I can tell you what we are going to do at SpaceX and Tesla. We’re building up large-scale solar. So the SpaceX and Tesla teams both separately are working to build to 100 gigawatts a year of solar power in the US (of manufactured solar power). That will probably take us about three years. But these are pretty big numbers. And I encourage others to do the same. We obviously don’t control US tariff policy. But China makes solar cells that are incredibly low cost. And I think it would be worth doing large-scale solar.scale solar.是的，我觉得——好，我可以告诉你 SpaceX 和 Tesla 打算怎么做。我们在大规模推进太阳能建设。SpaceX 和 Tesla 的团队都在分别努力，目标是在美国每年制造 100 gigawatts 的太阳能（制造产能）。这大概需要三年时间。但这是相当大的数字。我也鼓励其他人做同样的事。我们显然管不了美国的关税政策。但中国制造的太阳能电池成本极低，我认为大规模推进太阳能是值得的。
Larry FinkSo I know you’re going to be having a couple of big announcements on robotics and what it can do. I mean, when we went to the factory, you showed me those robots. We talked about billions of robots, but how quickly can they be deployed in your manufacturing setting, be utilized and be functional, and create that abundance you talked about?我知道你即将在机器人领域有几项重大发布，关于机器人能做什么。我们去工厂时，你给我看了那些机器人。我们谈到了数十亿台机器人，但它们能多快在你的制造环境中部署、投入使用并真正发挥功能，创造出你说的那种丰盛？
Elon MuskWell, humanoid robotics will advance very quickly. We do have some of the Tesla Optimus robots doing simple tasks in the factory. Probably later this year—by the end of this year—I think they will be doing more complex tasks, but still deployed in an industrial environment. And probably sometime next year—I would say that by the end of next year—I think we will be selling humanoid robots to the public.人形机器人的发展会非常快。我们目前已经有一些 Tesla Optimus 机器人在工厂里执行简单任务。大概在今年晚些时候——今年年底之前——我认为它们会承担更复杂的任务，但仍然是在工业环境中部署。大概明年某个时候——我说年底前——我认为我们会开始向公众销售人形机器人。
Larry FinkLike you’re already seeing in Tesla cars, software changes every quarter now. A software change upgrades the ability of the robot within the car.就像你在 Tesla 汽车里已经看到的，软件每个季度都在更新。软件更新升级了车内机器人的能力。
Elon MuskYes, the Tesla full self-driving software—we update sometimes once a week. So I think some of the insurance companies have said that it is actually so safe when Tesla uses full self-driving—so safe that they’re offering customers half-price insurance if they use Tesla full self-driving in their car.是的，Tesla 的 full self-driving 软件——我们有时一周更新一次。有些保险公司已经表示，Tesla 使用 full self-driving 的安全性实在太高——如此之安全，以至于他们给使用 Tesla full self-driving 的客户提供半价保险。
Larry FinkAnd that can be monitored by the insurance company because it’s part of the agreement?这可以被保险公司监控，因为这是协议的一部分？
Elon MuskYeah, but I think self-driving cars is essentially a solved problem at this point. Tesla has rolled out Robotaxi service in a few cities, and it will be very widespread by the end of this year within US. Then we hope to get supervised full self-driving approval in Europe hopefully next month.是的，不过我认为自动驾驶汽车在这个阶段基本上已经是一个解决了的问题。Tesla 已经在几个城市推出了 Robotaxi 服务，今年年底之前将在美国大范围铺开。然后我们希望明年——希望下个月——能在欧洲获得有监督的 full self-driving 审批。
Larry FinkReally that quickly!?真的那么快！？
Elon MuskYeah. And then maybe similar timing for China hopefully.是的。然后中国大概也是类似的时间节点，希望如此。
Elon MuskSPACE太空
Larry FinkI want to move to space because historically space is very capital intensive. Historically been done by governments. Obviously SpaceX changed the whole model. But we have seen it slow to scale. And now I am starting to see ramping up in what you are doing. Talk about the automation—how is it changing economics in building and preparing for operating in space?我想聊聊太空，因为历史上太空是非常资本密集型的领域，历来由政府主导。显然 SpaceX 改变了整个模式。但我们看到规模化的进展一直比较慢。而现在我开始看到你们正在加速。聊聊自动化——它是如何改变太空建设和运营的经济模式的？
Elon MuskSure. Well, the key breakthrough that SpaceX hopes to achieve this year: full reusability. No one has ever achieved full reusability of a rocket, which is very important for the cost of access to space. We have achieved partial reusability with Falcon 9 by landing the boost stage over 500 times. But we have to throw away the upper stage that burns up on reentry. And the cost of it is equivalent to a small- to medium-size jet.当然。SpaceX 今年希望实现的关键突破是：完全可复用。从来没有人实现过火箭的完全可复用，这对进入太空的成本来说至关重要。我们用 Falcon 9 实现了部分可复用——一级助推器已经着陆超过 500 次。但我们必须丢弃在再入大气层时烧毁的上面级。而那个上面级的成本相当于一架中小型喷气机。
Elon MuskSo with Starship—which is a giant rocket, the largest flying machine ever made—that’s the rocket you’re using for the idea of going to Mars, right?而 Starship——这是有史以来制造过的最大飞行器，一枚巨型火箭——那就是你说的用来飞往火星的火箭，对吧？
Larry FinkYeah.对。
Elon MuskMars and the Moon as well, and for high-volume satellite stuff. So Starship—hopefully this year—we should prove full reusability for Starship, which will be a profound invention. Because the cost of access to space will drop by a factor of 100 when you achieve full reusability. It is the same economic difference that you would expect between, say, a reusable aircraft and a non-reusable aircraft. Like if you have to throw your aircraft away after every flight, there will be expensive flights. But if you only refuel, then it’s the cost of fuel.火星和月球都是，还有大规模卫星发射。所以 Starship——希望今年——我们应该能证明 Starship 的完全可复用，这将是一项深刻的发明。因为实现完全可复用后，进入太空的成本将下降 100 倍。这和你预期的经济差异是一样的——比如说可复用飞机和一次性飞机之间的差距。如果每次飞完都要把飞机扔掉，机票当然贵。但如果只是加油，那成本就只是燃料钱。
Elon MuskSo that’s really the fundamental breakthrough that gets the cost of access to space—we think—below the cost of freight on aircraft. So you know, under $100 a pound type thing easily. It makes putting large satellites into space very low, very cheap.所以这就是从根本上降低进入太空成本的突破——我们认为会低于航空货运的成本。也就是说，轻松做到每磅 100 美元以内的水平。这让把大型卫星送入太空变得非常便宜。
Elon MuskAnd then when you have solar in space, you get five times more effectiveness—maybe even more than that—than solar on the ground. Because it’s always sunny, no clouds. Yeah, it’s always sunny. So you don’t have a day-night cycle or seasonality or weather. And you get about 30% more power in space because you don’t have atmospheric attenuation of the power. That net effect is solar is five times more—any given solar panel will do five times the energy in space than on the ground.而且当你在太空中使用太阳能，效率是地面的 5 倍——甚至更多。因为阳光永不停歇，没有云。是的，永远是晴天。没有昼夜循环，没有季节性，没有天气。而且由于没有大气层对能量的衰减，你在太空中获得的功率大约多 30%。综合效果就是：太阳能在太空的效率是地面的 5 倍——同样一块太阳能板，在太空产生的能量是在地面的 5 倍。
Larry FinkThere is any capacity in doing that then taking that power, bringing back to Earth? Is there any way of doing that? Or you just taking the power and utilizing it for needs like building AI data centers in space?那么，有没有可能把太空中产生的电力输回地球？还是说只是把这些电力用于太空需求，比如在太空建造 AI 数据中心？
Elon MuskI think the case is a no-brainer for building AI solar power to AI data centers in space. Because as mentioned, it’s also very cold in space. If you’re in shadow, then it’s very cold in space—3 degrees Kelvin. So you have solar panels facing the sun, and then a radiator that is like pointed away from the sun so it has no sun incidence. And then it’s just cooling—it’s a very efficient cooling system. Net effect is that the lowest-cost place to put AI will be space. And that will be true within 2 years, maybe 3 at latest.我认为在太空建造 AI 太阳能数据中心是个无可争议的好主意。因为正如我提到的，太空里也非常冷。如果处于阴影中，太空里极其寒冷——只有 3 Kelvin。所以你有太阳能板朝向太阳，同时有一个散热器朝着远离太阳的方向，使其没有日照。这就是一套极其高效的冷却系统。综合效果是：放置 AI 的成本最低的地方就是太空。这一点在 2 年内就会成真，最迟 3 年。
Larry FinkLooking 10 or 20 years out, how would you describe success with AI or space technology? And where do you see it? Can—are more certain what will happen in the next 3 years, 5, 10?展望 10 年或 20 年后，你会如何描述 AI 或太空技术的成功？你认为会是什么样子？对于未来 3 年、5 年、10 年，哪个更有把握？
Elon MuskI don’t know what’s going to happen in ten years. But the rate at which AI is progressing—we might have AI that is smarter than any human by end of this year, and no later than next year. And probably 2030 or 2031—5 years from now—AI will be smarter than all of humanity collectively.10 年后会怎样，我不知道。但按照 AI 现在的进展速度——今年年底前，我们可能会拥有比任何人类都更聪明的 AI，最迟明年。到 2030 年或 2031 年——也就是 5 年后——AI 的智慧将超过全体人类的总和。
Larry FinkWe only have a number of minutes left, but I want to humanize you for a second. So there’s no speculation that you’re the most successful entrepreneur, industrialist in the 21st century—maybe beyond. What inspired you? Who inspired you? What was the foundation of your curiosity? And importantly, why? Was there an aha moment, epiphany at any time in your life and career?我们只剩几分钟了，但我想让大家看到你作为一个人的一面。毫无疑问，你是 21 世纪最成功的企业家、工业家——甚至可能超越历史。是什么激励了你？谁激励了你？你好奇心的根源是什么？还有一个重要问题：为什么？你在人生或职业生涯的某个时刻有过顿悟吗？
Elon MuskWell, I mean, as a kid I read a lot of science fiction, sci-fi, fantasy books, comic books. And always like technology. Didn’t expect to be where I am today—seems incredibly implausible. But yeah, I was inspired by reading books about the future of science fiction. And I guess want to make science fiction not fiction forever. At some point, turn science fiction into fact. And you know, we wanna have like Starfleet as in Star Trek really for real—where we actually have giant spaceships traveling through space, going to other planets, traveling to other star systems.嗯，我小时候读了大量科幻小说、奇幻书籍、漫画书。一直喜欢技术。没想到会走到今天这一步——感觉难以置信地不可思议。但是，我是被那些描写未来的科幻书籍所启发的。我想，我希望科幻小说别永远只是小说。在某个时刻，把科幻变成事实。你知道，我们想拥有真实的星际舰队——就像《星际迷航》里那样——真的拥有穿越太空的巨型飞船，去往其他星球，前往其他星系。
Larry FinkBeamed up to go back to New York?传送回纽约？
Elon MuskI would like beaming back to New York instead of flying. Yeah. You know about Star Trek. So I guess my essential what we call the philosophy of curiosity. And I would like to understand the meaning of life. Is the standard model of physics correct regarding the beginning of existence at the end of the universe? What questions do we not know to ask that we should ask? And AI will help us with these things. So I just try to understand: how did we get here? What’s going on? What is real? Are there aliens? Maybe they are. If you have spaceships traveling to other star systems, we may encounter aliens or find many long-dead alien civilizations. But I just want to know what’s going on—curious about the universe. And that is my philosophy.我倒是希望能传送回纽约，而不是坐飞机。是的。你懂《星际迷航》。我想我本质上信奉的是一种好奇的哲学。我想理解生命的意义。物理学的标准模型对于宇宙开端和终结的描述是否正确？有哪些我们该问却还不知道要问的问题？AI 会帮助我们解答这些事情。我只是想搞清楚：我们是怎么来到这里的？这一切是怎么回事？什么是真实？有没有外星人？也许有。如果有飞船前往其他星系，我们也许会遇到外星人，或者发现许多早已灭绝的外星文明。我只是想知道宇宙是怎么回事——对宇宙充满好奇。这就是我的哲学。
Larry FinkDo you see yourself going to Mars in your lifetime?你认为你有生之年会去火星吗？
Elon MuskYes. Like that’s a long commitment, isn’t it? Three years each way?是的。这可是很长的承诺，对吧？单程三年？
Larry FinkSix months.六个月。
Elon MuskBut the planets only align every two years. So yeah. Been asked a few times: do I want to die on Mars? And I’m like, yes—just not on impact.但两颗行星每两年才对齐一次。所以嘛。有人问过我好几次：你想死在火星上吗？我说，想——只是别死在撞击的那一刻就行。
Larry FinkThat’s a good answer. Anyway, we are out of time. Hopefully everybody enjoyed this. And there are so many myths around Elon Musk. I can tell you he is a great friend, and I constantly learn so much from him. And I’m totally inspired by what he has done, have been inspired by who he is, and I’m totally inspired by his vision of the future. And don’t think it’s such a bad future.好答案。好了，时间到了。希望大家都享受了这场对话。关于 Elon Musk 有太多的传言。我可以告诉你，他是我的好朋友，我从他身上不断学到很多东西。他的所作所为让我深受鼓舞，他这个人让我深受鼓舞，他对未来的愿景让我深受鼓舞。而且我觉得那并不是个坏的未来。
Elon MuskAnd I think generally my last words would be: I encourage everyone to be optimistic and excited about the future. Good. And generally for quality of life, it is better on being an optimist rather than a pessimist, right?我认为，总结来说，我最想说的是：我鼓励每一个人对未来保持乐观，对未来充满兴奋。好的。从生活质量的角度来讲，做一个乐观主义者也比做一个悲观主义者要好得多，对吧？
Elon Musk(End of video – applause and wrap-up.)（视频结束——掌声与收尾。）
Elon MuskThis verbatim transcript is important and inspiring for everybody. Because it is so wide-ranging on technology, energy, AI, space, and optimism, it can lift you up if you’re ever down.这份逐字稿对每个人来说都重要且鼓舞人心。因为它涵盖了技术、能源、AI、太空和乐观主义如此广泛的话题，在你低落的时候，它可以让你振作起来。
Elon MuskWhen I bought my first Tesla, a Model 3 in 2019, I joined a community of many people who love Elon Musk and Tesla. Every time I drive my Tesla around my hometown Austin, Texas, or take a Robotaxi here, I’m reminded of the extraordinary effort that is put into making Tesla succeed. Elon puts in maximum effort into all his companies.2019 年我买了第一辆 Tesla Model 3，由此加入了一个热爱 Elon Musk 和 Tesla 的庞大社群。每当我在家乡德克萨斯州奥斯汀开着我的 Tesla 上路，或者在这里乘坐 Robotaxi，我都会想起为让 Tesla 成功所付出的非凡努力。Elon 在他所有的公司里都倾尽全力。
Elon MuskIn January 2022, I started this blog to write positive things about Tesla and Elon Musk. It has since grown to include many transcripts of Elon’s talks. I’m thankful to Johnna Crider for supporting and encouraging me to start this blog.2022 年 1 月，我开始写这个博客，记录 Tesla 和 Elon Musk 的正面内容。此后它逐渐扩展，涵盖了 Elon 许多演讲的文字稿。感谢 Johnna Crider 对我创办这个博客的支持与鼓励。