Elon MuskExactly.没错。
Joe RoganJust every morning.就每天早上这样。
Elon MuskWhat about Jeff Bezos is doing.Jeff Bezos 也在做同样的事。
Joe RoganDefinitely doing some.肯定在打。
Elon MuskHe looks jacked.他看起来肌肉很壮。
Joe RoganHe looks jacked, right?他看起来确实很壮，对吧？
Elon MuskYeah, but he’s like quick, quick, quick. At age like 50. At 50. At age 59 than a year he went from pencil net geek to looking like a miniature, like the Rock.是啊，但他变化太快太快太快了。50岁左右，50岁。在59岁那年，他从一个铅笔脖书呆子，变成了一个迷你版的，就像巨石强森那样。
Joe RoganYeah, like a little miniature alpha fella.对，就像一个小号的猛男。
Elon MuskYeah. Like his neck got bigger than his head. Yeah, he got very quick. But then like his earlier pictures, his neck’s like a noodle.对。他的脖子都比脑袋大了。变化特别快。但看他早期的照片，脖子细得跟根面条一样。
Joe RoganI support this activity. I just see him going in this direction, which is fine. And his voice dropped like two octaves.我支持这种行为。我就看着他往这个方向走，挺好的。而且他的嗓音降了两个八度。
Elon MuskI want you to move in that direction as well. I think we can achieve this.我也想让你往那个方向发展。我觉得我们可以实现这个目标。
Joe RoganI mean, I should.我是应该的。
Elon MuskI think we can achieve Gigachad. That’s what people called it.我觉得我们可以实现 Gigachad 的目标。人们就是这么叫它的。
Joe RoganWhere is that guy?那个人在哪儿？
Elon MuskBeeple? I don’t know where he is.Beeple？我不知道他在哪儿。
Joe RoganThat’s like a real guy.那是个真实存在的人。
Elon MuskThe artist.那个艺术家。
Joe RoganYeah.对。
Elon MuskOh, Gigachad.哦，Gigachad。
Joe RoganOh, Gigachad. Yeah. I don’t know if that’s a real guy.哦，Gigachad。对。我不知道那是不是个真实的人。
Elon MuskIt’s hard. No, no, it is a real guy.很难说。不不，他确实是个真实的人。
Joe RoganIt is a real guy.他是个真实的人。
Joe RoganHe’s got the crazy jaw and like perfect sculpted hair.他有那个疯狂的下巴，还有完美雕塑感的发型。
Elon MuskYeah, yeah. Well, I mean, they may have exaggerated a little bit, but I think he actually just kind of looked like that in reality. Wow. So like, he’s a pretty unique looking individual.对对，嗯，我是说，他们可能稍微夸张了一点点，但我觉得他现实中本来就大概长那个样子。哇。所以说，他是个长相相当独特的人。
Joe RoganI think we can achieve this. That guy right there, that’s a real guy.我觉得我们可以实现这个。那个人，就是那个，那是个真实的人。
Elon MuskThat’s real.那是真实的。
Joe RoganI always thought that was CGI.我一直以为那是 CGI 做出来的。
Elon MuskNo, I think one of the, I think the upper right one is not him. That’s not him.不，我觉得右上角那张不是他。那不是他。
Joe RoganBut that one to the left of that, like, that’s real. No, that’s artificial, bro. That’s fake. That’s got that uncanny valley feel to it, doesn’t it?但那张左边那个，像，那是真实的。不，那是人工的，兄弟。那是假的。那有种恐怖谷的感觉，对吧？
Elon MuskIt’s not impossible.这并非不可能。
Joe RoganNo, no, it’s not impossible to achieve, but it’s not possible to maintain that kind of leanness.不不，实现那种身材不是不可能，但要保持那种精瘦程度是不可能的。
Elon MuskNo, no. I mean, that’s like you’re also at that point, you’re there, there he’s dehydrating and all sorts of things.不不，我是说，在那种程度上，你同时还在脱水之类的，各种手段都用上了。
Joe RoganOh, it’s based on a real person.哦，那是基于一个真实的人。
Elon MuskYeah, yeah, based on.对对，是基于真实的人。
Joe RoganRight. But it’s not a real person.对。但它不是一个真实的人。
Elon MuskWhat does he really look like?他现实中长什么样？
Joe RoganThose images, I think, are bullsh*t. Some of them are. Is that real? Okay, that real? That looks real. Those are really jack bodybuilder. Yeah, yeah, that looks real. Like, that’s achievable but there’s a few of those images where you’re just like, what’s going on here?那些图，我觉得有些是假的。有些是。那张是真实的？好，那张是真实的？那看起来是真的。那些都是真实的壮汉健美选手。对对，那看起来是真的。像，那是可以实现的，但有几张图你就会想，这到底是怎么回事？
Elon MuskYeah, yeah, yeah, totally. Well, I mean, you see it is that.对对对，完全是。嗯，我是说，你能看到就是那样的。
Joe RoganThat’s the real dude.那是真实的家伙。
Elon MuskWell, there’s like that, that Icelandic dude who’s Thor.嗯，有个冰岛人，就是那个扮演 Thor 的。
Joe RoganOh, yeah, the guy who jumps in the frozen lakes and sh*t.哦对，就是那个跳冰湖之类的家伙。
Elon MuskWell, the guy who played the mountain.不，是扮演"大山"那个演员。
Joe RoganOh, that guy. That is.哦，那个人。确实。
Elon MuskThat is like a, that is like a mutant, strong human. Yes. Yeah, like he would be in like the X-Men or something.那就是个，那就是个变异的超强人类。是的。对，就好像他是 X-Men 里面的人物一样。
Joe RoganYou know, we were hanging out.你知道，我们在一起闲逛的时候。
Elon MuskHe’s just like, not like, you know that. Have you seen that meme tent and tent bag?他就像，不像，你知道那个。你看过那个帐篷包的梗图吗？
Joe RoganNo.没有。
Elon MuskYou know how like, it’s like it’s really hard to get the tent in there. That’s true. There’s a picture of him and his girlfriend. I don’t know how it gets in there. You know, it’s like, it seems too small.你知道帐篷很难塞回袋子里。确实如此。有张他和他女朋友的照片。我不知道他怎么放进去的。就感觉太小了。
Elon MuskThe World’s Strongest Men世界上最强壮的人
Joe RoganBut I met Brian Shaw. Brian Shaw is like the world’s most powerful man. And he’s almost 7 feet tall. He’s 400 pounds and his bone density is 1 in 500 million people. So there’s one, it’s like, there’s like maybe 16 people. He’s an enormous human being.但我见过 Brian Shaw。Brian Shaw 是世界上最强壮的男人之一。他快 7 英尺高，400 磅重，骨密度是 5 亿分之一的级别。所以大概只有 16 个人这样的人。他是个巨型人类。
Elon MuskOkay.好的。
Joe RoganLike a legitimate giant. Just like that guy. Yeah, but we met him. He was hanging out with us in the green room of the mothership. It’s like, okay, if this is like David and Goliath days, like, yeah, this is an actual giant. Like the giants of the Bible.就像一个货真价实的巨人。就跟那个人一样。对，但我们见到他了。他在 mothership 的后台休息室跟我们待在一起。就感觉像，好吧，如果这是大卫与歌利亚的年代，那，是的，这就是一个真正的巨人。就像圣经里的那种巨人。
Elon MuskOnce in a while they get a super giant person.偶尔会出现这种超级巨型的人。
Joe RoganThis is a real, a real one. Like not a tall, skinny basketball player. Yeah, yeah, like a 7 foot, 400 pound power lifter.这是一个真正的，真实的巨人。不是那种又高又瘦的篮球运动员。对对，像，一个 7 英尺高、400 磅重的力量举运动员。
Elon MuskLike you don’t want to especially.就是那种你特别不想……
Joe RoganThat’s the guy. See if there’s a photo of him standing next to like a regular human.就是那个人。看看有没有他和普通人站在一起的照片。
Elon MuskThere it is.就在那里。
Joe RoganYeah, that’s him right there.对，就是那里的他。
Elon MuskLike, there’s like, there’s like one of him with next to standing next to Arnold and stuff. Yeah, it’s where everyone, everyone just looks tiny. I mean, I think he’s a pretty cool dude actually.像，有张他和 Arnold 站在一起的照片。对，在那里每个人，每个人看起来都渺小。我是说，我觉得他其实是个挺酷的家伙。
Joe RoganOh, Brian’s very cool. Very smart too. Unusual. You know, you expect anybody to be that big, it’s got to be a moron.哦，Brian 非常酷。也非常聪明。不同寻常。你会觉得任何人长那么大，应该是个蠢货。
Elon MuskYeah, there’s Andre the Giant who was awesome. Yeah, he was great in Princess Bride.对，还有 Andre the Giant，他很棒。对，他在《公主新娘》里很出色。
Joe RoganNo, he was just awesome, period.不，他就是纯粹的很棒，就这样。
Elon MuskYeah. Yeah.对，对。
Joe RoganSo we were talking about this interview with Sam Altman and Tucker , and I was like, we should probably just talk about this on the air. It is one of the craziest interviews I think I’ve ever seen in my life.所以我们一直在聊 Sam Altman 和 Tucker 那个访谈，我就想，我们应该拿到台上来聊聊。那是我这辈子看过的最疯狂的访谈之一。
Elon MuskYeah.对。
Joe RoganWhere Tucker starts bringing up this guy.Tucker 开始提到这个人。
Elon MuskWho was whistleblower or whatever.那个告密者之类的人。
Joe RoganA whistleblower who, you know, committed suicide but doesn’t look like it. And he’s talking to Sam Altman about this. And Sam Altman’s like, “Are you accusing me?” He’s like, “No, no, no, I’m not. I’m just saying I think someone killed him.”一个告密者，他自杀了，但看起来不像是自杀。Tucker 就在跟 Sam Altman 说这件事。然后 Sam Altman 说，"你是在指控我吗？" Tucker 说，"不不不，我不是，我只是在说我认为有人杀了他。"
Elon MuskYeah. Like, and should be investigated. Yeah. Not just drop the case. It seems like they just dropped the case. Yeah.对。就是说，应该彻查。对。不能就这么结案。看起来他们就是直接结案了。是的。
Joe RoganYeah.对。
Elon MuskBut his parents think he was murdered.但他的父母认为他是被谋杀的。
Joe RoganYeah.对。
Elon MuskThe wires to a security camera were cut.监控摄像头的电线被剪断了。
Joe RoganBlood in two rooms.两个房间都有血迹。
Elon MuskBlood in two rooms. Someone else’s wig was in the room.两个房间都有血迹。房间里还有别人的假发。
Joe RoganSomeone else’s wig.别人的假发。
Elon MuskWig.假发。
Joe RoganWig.假发。
Elon MuskYes.是的。
Joe RoganNot normal.不正常。
Elon MuskNot his wig.不是他的假发。
Joe RoganNot normal to have a wig laying around.随手放着一顶假发，这不正常。
Elon MuskYes. And he ordered DoorDash right before allegedly committing suicide.是的。而且他在据称自杀之前还点了 DoorDash 外卖。
Joe RoganYeah.对。
Elon MuskWhich is, seems unusual, you know.这，感觉很不寻常，你懂的。
Joe RoganYeah.对。
Elon MuskIt’s like, you know, let’s, I’m going to order pizza. On second thoughts, I’ll kill myself. It seems like that’s a very rapid change in mindset.就像，来啊，我要点个披萨。转念一想，算了我去死吧。这心态转变得也太快了。
Joe RoganIt’s very weird. And especially the parents, have they, they don’t believe he committed suicide at all?非常奇怪。特别是他父母，他们，他们完全不相信他是自杀的？
Elon MuskHas no note or anything. No.没有留下任何遗书之类的东西。没有。
Joe RoganIt seems pretty f *ed up. And, you know, the idea that a whistleblower for an enormous AI company that’s worth billions of dollars might get whacked, that’s not outside the pale.听起来真的很见鬼。而且，你懂的，一家价值数十亿美元的巨型 AI 公司的告密者被干掉，这并非天方夜谭。
Elon MuskI mean, it’s straight out of a movie.这简直就是从电影里走出来的情节。
Joe RoganRight out of a movie. But right out of a movie is real sometimes.就像从电影里走出来一样。但从电影里走出来的情节，现实中有时候真会发生。
Elon MuskYeah, right, exactly. It’s a little weird that I think they should do a proper investigation. Like, what’s the downside on that? Proper investigation, right.对，正是如此。这有点奇怪，我觉得应该展开一次正式的调查。这样做有什么坏处吗？正式调查，对。
Joe RoganNo, yeah, for sure. But the whole exchange is so bizarre.不，对，当然。但整个交锋过程太诡异了。
Elon MuskYeah. Yes, it is.对，是的，确实如此。
Joe RoganSam Altman’s reaction to being accused of murder is bizarre.Sam Altman 对被指控谋杀的反应太诡异了。
Elon MuskLook, I don’t know if he’s guilty, but it’s not possible to look more guilty. So I’m like.听着，我不知道他是否有罪，但他不可能表现得看起来更有罪了。所以我就……
Joe RoganOr look more weird.或者看起来更奇怪。
Elon MuskYeah.对。
Joe RoganYou know, maybe it’s just his social thing. Like, maybe he’s just odd with confrontation and it just goes blank, you know? But if somebody was accusing me of killing Jamie, like, if Jamie was a whistleblower and Jamie got whacked, and then I’d be like, “Wait, what are you, what are you, are you accusing me of killing my friend? Like, what the f * are you talking about?” I would be a little bit more irate.你知道，也许只是他的社交问题。也许他只是在面对冲突时会变得很奇怪，然后脑子就空白了，你懂吗？但如果有人指控我杀了 Jamie，就像，如果 Jamie 是告密者，Jamie 被干掉了，那我会说，"等等，你，你，你在指控我杀了我的朋友？你他妈在说什么？" 我会愤怒得多。
Elon MuskYeah. Yeah, exactly.对，对，正是这样。
Joe RoganI would be a little upset.我会有点激动的。
Elon MuskYeah. It’d be like, well, you’d certainly insist on a thorough investigation. As opposed to trying to sweep it under the rug.对，确实。你肯定会坚持要求彻底调查。而不是试图把事情压下去。
Joe RoganYeah. I wouldn’t assume that he got, that he committed suicide. I would be suspicious. If Tucker was telling me that aspect of the story, I’d be like, “That does seem like a murder. F *, we should look into this.”对。我不会假设他是自杀的。我会起疑心的。如果 Tucker 告诉我这些案情，我会说，"这确实看起来像是谋杀。操，我们应该查查这件事。"
Elon MuskI mean, all signs point to it being a murder. Not saying, you know, Sam Altman had anything to do with the murder, but.我是说，所有迹象都指向这是一起谋杀。不是说，你知道，Sam Altman 跟这起谋杀有什么关系，但……
Joe RoganBlood in two rooms.两个房间里都有血。
Elon MuskBlood in two rooms. Like, yeah, the wires to the security camera and the DoorDash being ordered right before suicide. No suicide note. His parents think he was murdered. And the people that I know who knew him said he was not suicidal. So I’m like this, why would you jump to the conclusion.两个房间都有血。是的，监控摄像头的线被剪断了，而且在自杀前还点了 DoorDash 外卖，没有遗书，他父母认为他是被谋杀的，而且我认识的那些了解他的人说他没有轻生的念头。所以我就想，你们为什么要一下子跳到那个结论。
Joe RoganThey sue the son’s landlord? Alleged the owners and the managers their son’s San Francisco apartment building were part of a widespread cover up of his death.他们起诉了儿子的房东？指控房东及物业管理方参与了对其儿子在旧金山公寓死亡案的大规模掩盖。
Elon MuskThe landlord.房东。
Joe RoganYeah, there’s a bunch of weird. They said there’s, like, packages missing from the building.对，还有一堆奇怪的事。他们说楼里有包裹失踪了。
Elon MuskSome people said they saw packages still.有人说他们还看到包裹在继续被送来。
Joe RoganBeing delivered and all of a sudden they all disappeared. Huh. That could be, people steal people’s packages all the time.被送来，然后突然全都消失了。嗯，那也可能，包裹被人偷走这种事时有发生。
Elon MuskThe porch pirate situation. Yeah. Yeah.门廊盗窃的问题。对，对。
Joe RoganThey failed to safeguard also, I mean, the amount of trauma those poor parents have gone through with their son dying like that, I mean, it must, God bless them. And how could they stay sane after something like that? They’re probably, they’re so grief stricken. Who knows what they believe at this point.他们也没有尽到保护的责任。而且，我是说，那对可怜的父母经历了多大的创伤，儿子就那样走了，这一定，上帝保佑他们。在经历这一切之后，他们怎么还能保持神志清醒呢？他们可能，他们现在悲痛欲绝。谁知道他们现在相信什么。
Elon MuskYeah. He should have asked if Epstein killed himself.对。他本来应该问一下 Epstein 是不是自杀的。
Elon MuskThe Epstein CaseEpstein 案
Elon MuskWhere’s the Kash Patel?Kash Patel 在哪儿？
Joe RoganDan Bongino trying to convince everybody of that.Dan Bongino 在努力说服所有人相信那个说法。
Elon MuskThe guards weren’t there and the camera stopped working. And, you know, the guards were asleep.狱警不在场，摄像头停止工作了，然后，你知道，狱警睡着了。
Joe RoganThe cameras weren’t working. He had a giant steroided up bodybuilder guy that he was sharing a cell with that was a murderer who was a bad cop. Like, all of it’s kind of nuts. All of it’s kind of nuts. Like, that he would just kill himself rather than reveal all of his billionaire friends.摄像头没在工作。他和一个注射了类固醇的壮汉共用一间牢房，那个人是个杀人犯，是个坏警察。所有的事情加在一起都很疯狂。所有的事情加在一起都很疯狂。就像，他会选择自杀而不是揭发所有他那些亿万富翁朋友。
Elon MuskYeah.对。
Joe RoganAnd then did you see Tim Dillon.然后你看到 Tim Dillon 了吗？
Elon MuskTalking to Chris Cuomo about this?跟 Chris Cuomo 聊这件事？
Joe RoganI did. He liked Chris Cuomo. Just looked so stupid.看到了。他让 Chris Cuomo 看起来真的很蠢。
Elon MuskTim just listed off all the.Tim 就把所有事情一条一条列出来。
Joe RoganTim just, he’s like, “I agree, it is strange.” Like, of course it’s strange, Chris. Jesus Christ. You can’t just go with the tide. You got to think things through. And if you think that one through, you’re like, I don’t think he killed himself. Nobody does. You’d have to work for an intelligence agency to think he killed himself.Tim 就，他说，"我同意，这确实很奇怪。" 当然奇怪啊，Chris。耶稣基督。你不能随波逐流。你得把事情想透。如果你认真想一想，你会觉得，我不认为他是自杀的。没有人认为。你得是为情报机构工作的人才会认为他是自杀的。
Elon MuskIt does, it does seem unlikely.确实，这确实看起来不太可能。
Joe RoganIt seems highly unlikely. Highly unlikely. All point to murder.看起来极不可能。极不可能。所有迹象都指向谋杀。
Elon MuskYes.是的。
Joe RoganPoint to, they had to get rid of him because he knew too much. Whatever the f * he was doing, whatever kind of an asset he was, whatever thing he was up to, you know, was apparently very effective.都指向，他们必须除掉他，因为他知道的太多了。不管他他妈在做什么，不管他是什么类型的棋子，不管他在搞什么，显然都非常有效。
Elon MuskYes.是的。
Joe RoganAnd a lot of people were compromised. You see, your boy Bill Gates is now saying, “Climate change is not a big deal. Relax, everybody. I know I scared the f * out of you for the last decade and a half, but we’re going to be fine.”而且很多人都被他拿捏了。你看，你那个哥们 Bill Gates 现在说了，"气候变化没什么大不了的。大家放松，我知道我在过去十五年里把你们吓坏了，但我们会没事的。"
Elon MuskYeah, I mean, as I was saying just before coming into the studio, every day there’s some crazy wild new thing that’s happening. It feels like reality is accelerating.对，我是说，正如我进录音室前刚才说的，每天都有什么疯狂新鲜的事情发生。感觉现实在加速。
Joe RoganIt’s every day, and every day it’s more and more ridiculous to the point where the simulation is more and more undeniable.每天都是，而且每天都越来越荒诞，荒诞到那种模拟现实的感觉越来越难以否认。
Elon MuskYeah. It really feels like simulation. It’s like, come on, what are the odds that this could be the case?对，真的感觉像模拟。就像，搞什么鬼，这些事情同时发生的概率有多大？
Joe RoganAre you paying attention at all? The Three Eye Atlas, the comet?你有在关注吗？那个 Three Eye Atlas，那颗彗星？
Elon MuskYeah. Whatever it is. I mean, one thing I can say is, look, if I was aware of any evidence of aliens, Joe, you have my word, I will come on your show and I will reveal it on the show.对，不管那是什么。我是说，有一件事我可以说，你听着，Joe，如果我掌握了任何关于外星人存在的证据，你有我的承诺，我会来你的节目，我会在节目上把它揭露出来。
Joe RoganThat’s a good deal.这交易不错。
Elon MuskYeah, it’s pretty good.对，挺好的。
Joe RoganI believe you.我相信你。
Elon MuskThank you. I’ll keep my promises. And I’m never committing suicide, to be clear.谢谢。我说话算数。而且我绝对不会自杀，这点要说清楚。
Joe RoganI don’t think you would either.我也不觉得你会。
Elon MuskOn camera, guys. I am never committing suicide, ever.对着镜头说，各位。我永远不会自杀，永远不会。
Joe RoganIf someone says you committed suicide, I will fight tooth and nail. I will not believe it.如果有人说你自杀了，我会拼死反对。我绝不会相信的。
Joe RoganThe Three Eye Atlas CometThree Eye Atlas 彗星
Elon MuskThe thing about the Three Eye Atlas is that’s a hell of a name, actually.关于 Three Eye Atlas 这件事，那个名字其实相当厉害。
Joe RoganYeah, it’s a third. It sounds like Third Eye or something. Three I is the third. It’s only the third interstellar object that’s detected. Avi Loeb was on the podcast a couple days ago talking about it.对，感觉有点像"第三只眼"什么的。Three I 就是第三个。它是目前探测到的第三颗星际天体。Avi Loeb 几天前来播客聊过这件事。
Elon MuskYeah, it could be onions, I don’t know.对，也可能是洋葱，我不知道。
Joe RoganBut apparently today they’re saying that it’s changed course. Did you see that, Jamie? Avi Loeb said something today. I’ll send it to you. I know it’s on Reddit. It’s fascinating. It’s fascinating also because it’s made almost entirely of nickel. Whatever it is, and the only way that exists here is industrial alloys, apparently.但显然今天他们说它改变了轨迹。Jamie，你看到了吗？Avi Loeb 今天说了些什么。我发给你。我知道在 Reddit 上有。真的很迷人。也很迷人是因为它几乎完全由镍组成。不管它是什么，而这种东西在地球上存在的唯一方式是工业合金，据说。
Elon MuskNo, there are definitely comets and asteroids that are made primarily of nickel. The places where you mine nickel on Earth is actually where there was an asteroid or comet that hit Earth that was a nickel rich meteorite. Those are from impacts. You definitely didn’t want to be there at the time because anything would have been obliterated. But that’s where the sources of nickel and cobalt are these days.不，确实存在主要由镍构成的彗星和小行星。地球上你挖到镍的地方，实际上是曾经有一颗富含镍的陨石撞击过地球的地方。那些来自撞击。你当时肯定不想在那里，因为任何东西都会被彻底摧毁。但那就是现在镍和钴的来源之地。
Joe RoganSo this is Avi Loeb a few hours ago. “The first hint of non gravitational acceleration, that something other than gravity is affecting its acceleration, meaning something is affecting its trajectory beyond gravity was indicated.” Interesting. Dun, dun, dun. So it’s mostly nickel, very little iron, which he was saying is on Earth, it only exists in alloys. But whatever, you’re dealing with another planet.这是 Avi Loeb 几小时前说的。"关于非引力加速的首个迹象——也就是说，除引力之外有某种力量在影响它的加速——已经被发现了，意味着有某种东西在影响它超越引力范畴的轨迹。" 很有意思。咚咚咚。所以它大部分是镍，含铁量很少，他说在地球上这种成分只存在于合金中。但不管怎样，你是在和另一颗行星上的物质打交道。
Elon MuskThere are cases where there’s very nickel rich asteroids, meteorites that have it.确实存在镍含量非常高的小行星和陨石。
Joe RoganSomething from space.来自太空的东西。
Elon MuskYeah. It doesn’t mean it’ll be a very sort of heavy spaceship to make it all out of nickel.对，这不代表用纯镍造飞船会是个好主意，那东西会极其沉重。
Joe RoganAnd f *ing huge. The size of Manhattan and all nickel. That’s kind of nuts.而且他妈的还超大。曼哈顿大小，全是镍。这有点疯狂。
Elon MuskYeah, that’s a heavy spaceship.对，那是一艘很重的飞船。
Joe RoganThat’s a real problem if it hits.如果它撞上来那真是大麻烦了。
Elon MuskYes. No, it would obliterate a continent type of thing. Maybe worse.是的。那会把一整块大陆给抹平之类的。也许更糟。
Joe RoganProbably kill most of human life, if not all of us.大概会杀死大多数人类，如果不是全部的话。
Joe RoganExtinction Events and Asteroid Impacts灭绝事件与小行星撞击
Elon MuskIt depends on what the total mass is. But I mean, the thing is in the fossil record there are arguably five major extinction events. The biggest one of which is the Permian extinction where almost all life was eliminated. That actually occurred over several million years.这取决于总质量是多少。但我是说，在化石记录中，可以说有五次重大灭绝事件。其中最大的一次是二叠纪灭绝，几乎所有生命都被消灭了。那实际上是在几百万年的时间里发生的。
Elon MuskThere’s the Jurassic. I think that one’s pretty definitively an asteroid. But there’s been five major extinction events. But what they don’t count are really the ones that merely take out a continent.还有侏罗纪那次。我认为那次几乎可以肯定是小行星撞击。但一共发生过五次重大灭绝事件。但他们没有计入的，是那些仅仅毁灭了一个大陆的撞击。
Joe RoganMerely.仅仅？
Elon MuskYeah, because those don’t really show up on the fossil record. So unless it’s enough to cause a mass extinction event throughout Earth, it doesn’t show up in a fossil record that’s 200 million years old.对，因为那些在化石记录中根本显现不出来。所以除非规模足以在地球范围内造成大规模灭绝事件，否则在 2 亿年的化石记录里是看不到的。
Elon MuskBut there have been many, many impacts that would have sort of destroyed all life on, let’s say half of North America or something like that. There are many such impacts through the course of history.但历史上发生过许许多多的撞击，那些撞击足以摧毁，比如说，北美洲一半地区上的所有生命。历史上有很多次这样的撞击。
Joe RoganAnd there’s nothing we can do about it right now.而且我们现在对此束手无策。
Elon MuskYeah, there was one that hit Siberia and destroyed, I think a few hundred square miles.对，有一颗撞击了西伯利亚，摧毁了，我觉得有好几百平方英里。
Joe RoganOh, that’s the Tunguska.哦，那就是通古斯事件。
Elon MuskYeah.对。
Joe RoganThat’s the one from the 1920s, right? That’s the one that coincides with that meteor, that comet storm that we go through every June and every November, that they think is responsible for that younger Dryas impact. All that shit’s crazy.那是 1920 年代发生的那次，对吧？那次和每年 6 月和 11 月我们经历的那场流星、那场彗星暴雨同期，据认为那是造成新仙女木撞击的原因。所有这些东西都太疯狂了。
Joe RoganSpaceX Tour and Rocket LaunchSpaceX 参观与火箭发射
Joe RoganThank you, before we go any further, for letting us have a tour of SpaceX, letting us be there for the rocket launch. One of the absolute coolest things I’ve ever seen in my life. And we thought it was only like, I thought it was a half a mile. Jamie’s like, it was a mile away. Turned out it’s almost two miles away. And you feel it in your chest.谢谢你，在我们继续之前，感谢你让我们参观了 SpaceX，让我们在场亲眼目睹了火箭发射。那是我这辈子见过的最酷的事情之一。我们以为距离只有半英里左右。Jamie 说，有一英里。结果差不多有两英里远。你能感受到那股震动传到胸腔。
Elon MuskYeah, you have to wear earplugs.对，你得戴耳塞。
Joe RoganYou feel it in your chest and it’s two miles away. It was f *ing amazing. And then to go with you up into the command center and to watch all the Starlink satellites with all the different cameras and all in real time as it made its way all the way to Australia. How many minutes? Like 35, 40 minutes.你能感受到那震动传到胸腔，而且还在两英里以外。真他妈震撼。然后跟着你去指挥中心，看着所有 Starlink 卫星的各路摄像头画面，实时追踪着它一路飞到澳大利亚。大概多少分钟？像 35、40 分钟。
Elon MuskYeah.对。
Joe RoganWild. Watch it touchdown in Australia. F *ing crazy. It was amazing.震撼。看着它在澳大利亚降落。真他妈疯狂。太令人惊叹了。
Elon MuskYeah, the starship’s awesome and anyone can go watch the launch, actually. So you can just go to South Padre island and get this great view of the launch. It’s where a lot of spring breakers go. But we’ll be flying pretty frequently out of Starbase in South Texas, and we formally incorporated it as a city, so it’s actually an actual legal city. Starbase, Texas.对，Starship 真的很厉害，实际上任何人都可以去看发射。你可以直接去 South Padre 岛，从那里能看到非常棒的发射视角。那也是很多春假游客去的地方。但我们将会相当频繁地从南德克萨斯的 Starbase 进行发射，我们还正式把它注册成了一座城市，所以它现在是一个真正合法的城市了。Starbase，德克萨斯州。
Elon MuskIt’s not that often you hear like, hey, we made a city. That used to be in the old days, a startup would be, you go and gather a bunch of people and say, hey, let’s go make a town. Literally. That was what startups were in the old days.你不常听到有人说，嘿，我们建了一座城。那在老年代，创业就是，你去召集一帮人说，嘿，我们去建一座小镇吧。字面意义上的。那就是老年代的创业。
Joe RoganRight. Or a country.对，或者建一个国家。
Elon MuskYeah, or a country.对，或者建一个国家。
Joe RoganActually, if you tried doing that today, there’d be a real problem.如果你今天尝试这么做，真会遇到大麻烦。
Elon MuskYeah. Things are so much set in stone on the country front these days. You might be able to pull it off.对。如今在国家层面，一切都固化太久了。也许你还是能搞成。
Joe RoganYou might be able to pull it off. If you got a solid island, you might be able to pull it off. Like making your country Lanai.也许你能搞成。如果你拥有一座像样的岛屿，也许能搞成。就像把 Lanai 建成你的国家。
Elon MuskYeah, you could probably. If you put enough effort into it, you could make a new country.对，有可能。如果你付出足够的努力，你可以建立一个新国家。
Joe RoganIs this it right here? This is one of the different ones. This is one of the ones that you catch, right?这就是那个吗？这是其中一个不同的版本。这是你们会回收的那种，对吧？
Joe RoganThe Super Heavy Booster超重型助推器
Elon MuskYeah, that’s the booster. So that’s the super heavy booster. The booster’s got 33 engines and by version four, that will have about 10,000 tons of thrust. Right now it’s about seven, 8,000 tons of thrust. That’s the largest flying object ever made.对，那是助推器。那就是超重型助推器。助推器有 33 台发动机，到第四版的时候，推力将达到约 10,000 吨。目前大概是 7,000 到 8,000 吨推力。那是有史以来制造的最大的飞行物体。
Joe RoganI had to explain to someone, they were going, why do they blow up all the time if you’re so smart? Because there was this f ing idiot on television, some guy was being interviewed and they were talking about you. And he goes, oh, I think he’s a f wit. And he goes, why’d he say he’s a f *? Oh, his rockets keep blowing up. And someone said, yeah, well, why do his rockets blow? And I had to explain because it’s the only way you find out what the tolerances are. You have to have corners of the box.我不得不向某人解释这件事，他们在问，如果你那么聪明，为什么火箭一直在炸？因为电视上有个操蛋白痴，有个人接受采访，他们在谈论你。那人说，哦，我认为他是个蠢货。然后他说他为什么说你是蠢货？哦，他的火箭一直在炸。有人问，对，那他的火箭为什么会炸？我不得不解释，因为那是你找出容差极限的唯一方法。你必须探明边界在哪里。
Elon MuskSo when you do a new rocket development program, you have to do what’s called exploring the limits, the corners of the box where you say, it’s worst case this, worst case that, to figure out where the limits are. So you blow up, admittedly in the development process, sometimes it blows up accidentally.所以当你开展一个新的火箭研发项目时，你必须做一件叫做"探索极限"的事情，也就是"边界情况测试"——你让它承受最差的这种情况、最差的那种情况，来搞清楚极限在哪里。所以是会炸的，坦白说，在研发过程中有时候是意外炸了。
Elon MuskBut we intentionally subject it to a flight regime that is much worse than what we expect in normal flight. So that when we put people on board or valuable cargo, it doesn’t blow up.但我们会故意让它经历比正常飞行恶劣得多的飞行工况。这样当我们把人或有价值的货物放上去时，它就不会炸了。
Elon MuskFor example, for the flight that you saw, we actually deliberately took heat shield tiles off the ship, off of Starship in some of the worst locations to say, okay, if we lose a heat shield tile here, is it catastrophic or is it not? And nonetheless, Starship was able to do a soft landing in the Indian Ocean just west of Australia. And it got there from Texas in like, I don’t know, 35, 40 minutes type of thing.比如说，在你们观看的那次飞行中，我们实际上故意拆掉了飞船、也就是 Starship 上一些位于最恶劣位置的隔热瓦，来测试，好，如果这个位置的隔热瓦掉了，会是灾难性的吗？结果 Starship 仍然成功在澳大利亚以西的印度洋海域完成了软着陆。而且它从德克萨斯飞过去，大概，我不知道，35、40 分钟之类的。
Joe RoganSo it landed even though you put it through this situation where it was compromised shield.所以它在你设置的这种隔热层受损的情况下仍然成功着陆了。
Elon MuskIt had an unusually, we brought it in hot, an extra hot trajectory with missing tiles to see if it would still make it to a soft landing, which it did. Now, I should point out, it did have, there were some holes that were burnt into it, but it was robust enough to land despite having some holes burnt in, because it’s coming in like a blazing meteor. You can see the real time video.我们让它走了一条异常，额外热的再入轨迹，同时还有隔热瓦缺失，来看它是否还能完成软着陆，结果它做到了。现在，我应该指出，它确实，有一些洞被烧穿了，但它够结实，即使有洞被烧穿也依然能够着陆，因为它进入大气层的时候就像一颗燃烧的陨石。你可以看实时视频。
Joe RoganWell, tell me the speed again, because the speed was bananas you were talking about.好，再告诉我速度，因为你说的速度太离谱了。
Elon MuskYeah, it’s like 17,000 miles an hour, 25 times the speed of sound or thereabouts. So think of it like, it’s 12 times faster than a bullet from an assault rifle. Bullet from assault rifle is around Mach 2, and it’s huge. Or compare it to a bullet from a .45 or 9 mil, which is subsonic. It’ll be about 30 times faster than a bullet from a handgun.对，大概是 17,000 英里每小时，音速的 25 倍左右。所以想想看，这比突击步枪射出的子弹快 12 倍。突击步枪的子弹大约是 2 倍音速，而且 Starship 还那么大。或者拿它和 .45 手枪或 9 毫米手枪的子弹相比，那些是亚音速的。它大概比手枪子弹快 30 倍。
Joe Rogan30 times faster than a bullet from a handgun. And it’s the size of a skyscraper.比手枪子弹快 30 倍。而且它有摩天大楼那么大。
Elon MuskYes. That’s fast.是的。那就是快。
Elon MuskWitnessing History at SpaceX在 SpaceX 见证历史
Joe RoganIt’s so wild. It’s so wild to see, man. It’s so exciting. The factory is so exciting, too, because genuinely, no bullshit, I felt like I was witnessing history. I felt like it was a scene in a movie where someone had expectations and they go, what are they doing? They’re building rockets. And you go there. And as we were walking through, Jamie, you could speak to this too. Didn’t you have the feeling where you’re like, oh, this is way bigger than I thought it was.这真的太疯狂了。真的太疯狂了，伙计，太令人激动了。那个工厂也太令人激动了，因为说真的，不吹牛，我有种感觉，我在见证历史。我感觉就像是电影里的一个场景，有人带着预期去了，他们说，他们在做什么？他们在造火箭。然后你去到那里。当我们走过去的时候，Jamie，你也可以说说，你有没有那种感觉，就是，哦，这比我想象的要大得多。
Elon MuskThis is gigantic.这东西是真的巨大。
Joe RoganF *ing crazy. The amount of rockets you’re making, man.他妈的太疯了。你们造的火箭数量，老兄。
Elon MuskI don’t know if Giga tent back.我不知道 Giga 帐篷在不在。
Joe RoganGigachad in the house. This is way bigger than what I was. It’s a giant metal dick. You’re f *ing the universe with your giant metal dick.Gigachad 驾到。这比我想象的大多了。这就是一根巨大的金属屌。你用你那根巨大的金属屌在干整个宇宙。
Elon MuskThat’s what it is. Yeah. I mean, but yeah, it is very big.就是这么回事。是的。我是说，但确实，它非常大。
Joe RoganAnd the sheer numbers of them that you guys are making. And then this is a version and you have a new, updated version that’s coming soon.还有你们生产的数量之庞大。而这还只是一个版本，马上还有一个更新的版本要来了。
Joe RoganRocket Engineering and Hot Staging火箭工程与热分离
Elon MuskAnd what is the. It’s a little longer, more pointy. Same amount of pointy, but it’s got a bit more length. The interstage. You see that interstage section with kind of like the grill area that’s now integrated with the boost stage.新版本呢，稍微长一点，更尖一些。尖锐程度差不多，但加长了一点。你看那个级间段，像格栅那块区域，现在已经集成到推进级里了。
Elon MuskSo we do what’s called hot staging, where we light the ship engines while it’s still attached to the booster. So the booster engines are still thrusting. It’s still being pushed forward by the booster of the ship. But then we light the ship engines, and the ship engines actually pull away from the booster, even though the booster engines are still firing.我们用的是所谓的热分离技术——在飞船还与助推器相连的时候就点燃飞船发动机。助推器发动机还在推力输出，飞船还在被助推器向前推进，但我们同时点燃飞船发动机，飞船发动机就从助推器上拉离了，哪怕助推器发动机仍在燃烧。
Joe RoganWhoa.哇。
Elon MuskSo it’s blasting flame through that grill section where we integrate that grill section into the boost stage with the next version of the rocket. And the next version of the rocket will have the Raptor 3 engines, which are a huge improvement. You may have seen them in the lobby because we’ve got the Raptor 1, 2, and 3. And you can see the dramatic improvement in simplicity.所以火焰是通过那个格栅段喷出去的，下一代火箭会把这个格栅段直接整合到推进级里。下一代火箭会搭载 Raptor 3 发动机，那是一次巨大的飞跃。你在大厅里可能已经看到了，我们摆了 Raptor 1、2、3，能直观感受到简洁程度的巨大进步。
Elon MuskWe should probably put a plaque there to also show how much we reduce the weight, the cost, and improve the efficiency and the thrust. So the Raptor 3 has almost twice the thrust of Raptor 1.我们大概还应该在那边立一块牌子，说明我们减了多少重量、降了多少成本、提升了多少效率和推力。Raptor 3 的推力几乎是 Raptor 1 的两倍。
Joe RoganWow.哇哦。
Elon MuskSo you see Raptor 3, it looks like it’s got parts missing.你看 Raptor 3，感觉好像少了什么零件。
Joe RoganAnd how many.那上面装了多少台——
Elon MuskIt’s very, very clean.非常非常干净利落。
Joe RoganHow many of them are on the rocket?火箭上装了多少台？
Elon MuskThere’s 33 on the booster. And each Raptor engine is producing twice as much thrust as all four engines on a 747. So that engine is smaller than a 747 engine, but is producing almost 10 times the thrust of a 747 engine. So extremely high power to weight ratio. And so there’s 33 of them.推进级上有 33 台。每台 Raptor 发动机产生的推力是一架 747 全部四台发动机推力的两倍。这台发动机比 747 的发动机还小，但推力几乎是 747 发动机的 10 倍。功重比极高。一共 33 台。
Joe RoganSo when you’re designing these, you get to Raptor 1, you see its efficiency, you see where you can improve it. You get to Raptor 2, how far can you scale this up with just the same sort of technology with propellant and ignition and engines?那么在设计这些发动机的时候，你做到 Raptor 1，看到了它的效率，知道哪里可以改进；做到 Raptor 2，在同样的推进剂、点火和发动机技术基础上，还能把它提升到什么程度？
Joe RoganThe Physics of Full Reusability完全可重复使用的物理极限
Elon MuskWe’re pushing the limits of physics here. And really, in order to make a fully reusable orbital rocket, which no one has succeeded in doing yet, including us. But Starship is the first time that there is a design for a rocket where full and rapid reusability is actually possible. So there’s not even been a design before where it was possible. Certainly not a design that got made any hardware at all.我们在挑战物理极限。要做出一枚完全可重复使用的入轨火箭，目前没有人成功过，包括我们自己。但 Starship 是第一个在设计层面真正让完全、快速可重复使用成为可能的火箭。之前甚至都没有过一款设计从理论上说是可行的，更别说有任何实物落地了。
Elon MuskWe live on a planet where the gravity is quite high. Earth’s gravity is really quite high. And if the gravity was even 10 or 20% higher, we’d be stuck on Earth forever. We could not use, certainly couldn’t use conventional rockets. You’d have to blow yourself off the surface with a nuclear bomb or something crazy.我们住在一个重力相当高的星球上。地球的重力确实很高。如果重力再高出哪怕 10% 到 20%，我们就会被永远困在地球上。常规火箭肯定用不了。你得用核弹把自己从地表炸出去，或者干什么疯狂的事。
Elon MuskSo on the other hand, if Earth’s gravity was just a little lower, even 10, 20% lower, then getting to orbit would be easy. So it’s like if this was a video game, it’s set to maximum difficulty, but not impossible. Okay, so that’s what we have here.反过来，如果地球重力只是略低一点点，哪怕低 10%、20%，入轨就会很容易。就好比如果这是一款电子游戏，难度设置到了最高，但还没有到不可能。这就是我们目前面对的处境。
Elon MuskSo it’s not as though others have ignored the concept of reusability. They’ve just concluded that it was too difficult to achieve. And we’ve been working on this for a long time at SpaceX, and I’m the chief engineer of the company, although I should say that we’re an extremely talented engineering team. I think we’ve got the best rocket engineering team that has ever been assembled. It’s an honor to work with such incredible people.并不是说其他人忽视了可重复使用的概念，他们只是认为太难实现了。我们在 SpaceX 为此努力了很长时间，我是公司的首席工程师，不过我要说，我们有一支极其出色的工程师团队。我认为这是有史以来集结过的最优秀的火箭工程团队，能与这些了不起的人一起工作是我的荣幸。
Elon MuskSo it’s fair to say that we have not yet succeeded in achieving full reusability, but we at last have a rocket where full reusability is possible. And I think we’ll achieve it next year. So that’s a really big deal. And the reason that’s such a big deal is that full reusability drops the cost of access to space by 100, maybe even more than 100, actually. So it could be like 1,000.公平地说，我们尚未实现完全可重复使用，但我们终于有了一枚完全可重复使用在技术上可行的火箭。我认为明年就能实现。这非常重要。之所以如此重要，是因为完全可重复使用可以把进入太空的成本降低 100 倍，甚至更多，实际上可能达到 1,000 倍。
Elon MuskYou can think of it like any mode of transport. Imagine if aircraft were not reusable. You flew somewhere you throw the plane at. The way conventional rockets work is it would be like if you had an airplane and instead of landing at your destination, you parachute out and the plane crashes somewhere and you land at your destination. Now, that would be a very expensive trip and you’d need another plane to get back, but that’s how the other rockets in the world work.你可以把它类比成任何交通工具。想象一下如果飞机不能重复使用——你飞到某个地方就把飞机扔掉。传统火箭的工作方式，就好比你有一架飞机，但不是在目的地降落，而是跳伞出去，飞机坠毁在某处，你才抵达目的地。这会是一次极其昂贵的旅行，而且你还需要另一架飞机回来。但世界上其他火箭都是这么运作的。
Elon MuskNow, the SpaceX Falcon rocket is the only one that is at least mostly reusable. You’ve seen the Falcon rocket land. We’ve now done over 500 landings of the SpaceX rocket, of the Falcon 9 rocket. And this year we’ll deliver probably somewhere between 2,200 and 2,500 tons to orbit with the Falcon 9 Falcon Heavy rockets, not counting anything from Starship.SpaceX 的 Falcon 火箭是目前唯一至少在大部分程度上可以重复使用的。你们都见过 Falcon 火箭着陆。我们现在已经完成了超过 500 次 SpaceX 火箭，也就是 Falcon 9 的着陆。今年我们大概会用 Falcon 9 和 Falcon Heavy 把 2,200 到 2,500 吨的东西送入轨道，这还不算 Starship 的任何贡献。
Joe RoganAnd this is mostly Starlink.其中主要是 Starlink 吧。
Elon MuskYes, mostly Starlink, but we launch many other. We even launched our competitors on comparison to Starlink. On Falcon 9, we charge them the same price. Pretty fair. But SpaceX this year will deliver roughly 90% of all Earth mass to orbit. And then of the remaining 10%, most of that is done by China. And then the remaining roughly 4% is everyone else in the world, including our domestic competitors.是的，主要是 Starlink，但我们也发射了很多其他东西，甚至发射了 Starlink 的竞争对手。在 Falcon 9 上，我们对他们收同样的价格，相当公平。今年 SpaceX 将会承运全球约 90% 的入轨质量。剩下的 10% 里，大部分是中国做的，然后剩余大约 4% 是全球其他所有人，包括我们的国内竞争对手。
Elon MuskSatellites and Space Congestion卫星与太空拥挤
Joe RoganIt’s kind of incredible how many things are in space, how many things are floating above us now.太空里有多少东西，真是难以置信，现在有多少东西在我们头顶飘着。
Elon MuskThere’s a lot of things. It’s big, though, right?东西确实很多。但太空很大，对吧？
Joe RoganBut is there a saturation point where we’re going to have problems with all these different satellites?但会不会有一个饱和点，那么多卫星会不会出问题？
Elon MuskI think as long as the satellites are maintained, it’ll be fine. Space is very roomy. You can think of space as being concentric shells of the surface of the Earth. So it’s the surface of the Earth, but it’s a series of much larger. It’s a series of concentric trails.我觉得只要卫星都得到维护，就没问题。太空非常宽阔。你可以把太空想象成地球表面的一系列同心球壳，就是地球表面，但是一系列更大的同心轨道层。
Joe RoganAnd think of an Airstream trailer flying around up there. There’s a lot of room for Airstreams.可以想象成一辆 Airstream 拖车在上面飞，上面有很多地方可以放 Airstream。
Elon MuskYeah. I mean imagine. If there were just a few thousand Airstreams on Earth.是啊。想象一下，如果地球上只有几千辆 Airstream。
Joe RoganYeah.对。
Elon MuskWhat are the odds that they’d hit each other?它们互相撞上的概率有多大？
Joe RoganThey wouldn’t be very crowded. And then you got to go bigger because you’re dealing with far above Earth. Hundreds of miles above Earth.根本不会太拥挤。而且你还得考虑更大的尺度，因为这是在地球高空，几百英里高的地方。
Elon MuskYeah, yeah, yeah. So the goal of SpaceX is to get rocket technology to the point where we can extend life beyond Earth and that we can establish a self-sustaining city on Mars, a permanent base on the moon. That would be very cool. I mean, imagine if we had Moon Base Alpha where there’s a permanent science base on the moon.是的，是的。SpaceX 的目标是把火箭技术推进到能让生命延伸至地球之外，在火星建立一个自给自足的城市，在月球建立永久基地。那会很酷。想象一下，如果我们有个 Moon Base Alpha，月球上有一个永久性科研基地。
Joe RoganThat would be pretty dope, or at least a tourist trap.那会相当牛，或者至少是个旅游打卡地。
Elon MuskI mean, a lot of people would be willing to go to the moon for just for a tour, that’s for sure. We’ll probably pay for our space program with that.我是说，很多人愿意去月球就为了观光，这是肯定的。我们大概会靠这个来支撑我们的太空计划。
Joe RoganProbably. Yeah.可能吧，是的。
Elon MuskWell, because it’s like if you could go to the moon and safely, I think a lot of people would pay for that.因为如果能安全地去月球，我觉得很多人愿意花钱的。
Joe RoganOh, 100%. After the first year, after nobody died.那当然，100%。第一年没人死之后。
Elon MuskJust make sure. Are you going to come back?得确保……你能回来吗？
Joe RoganBecause like that submarine, they had a bunch of successful launches in that private submarine before it exploded and killed everybody.就像那艘潜水艇，他们那艘私人潜水艇成功下潜了好多次，然后爆炸炸死了所有人。
Elon MuskThat was not a good design, obviously.那个设计显然不行。
Joe RoganIt was a very bad design and the engineer said it would not withstand the pressure of those depths. There was a lot of whistleblowers in that company too.设计极其糟糕，工程师说那东西根本承受不了那个深度的压力。那家公司里也有很多举报人。
Elon MuskYeah, they made that out of carbon fiber, which doesn’t make any sense because you actually need to be dense to go down. In any case, you just make it out of steel. If you make it out of just a big steel casting, you’ll be safe and nothing will happen.是啊，他们用碳纤维做的，这根本说不通，因为要下潜你实际上需要密度够大。不管怎样，直接用钢就好了。用一个大型钢铸件，你就安全了，什么事都不会有。
Joe RoganWhy would they make it out of carbon fiber then? Is it cheaper?那他们为什么用碳纤维？便宜吗？
Elon MuskI think they think carbon fiber sounds cool or something. But it does sound cool. It sounds cool, but because it’s such low density, you actually have to add extra mass to go down because it’s low density. But if you just have a giant hollow ball bearing, you’re going to be fine.我觉得他们觉得碳纤维听起来很酷什么的。碳纤维确实听起来很酷，但因为密度太低，你反而得额外加配重才能下潜。但如果你就弄一个巨大的空心实心球，肯定没问题。
Elon MuskTesla Customization and Future DesignTesla 定制化与未来设计
Joe RoganSpeaking of carbon fiber, check out my unplugged Tesla out there.说到碳纤维，看看外面我那辆 Unplugged 改装的 Tesla。
Elon MuskYeah, it’s cool.是的，很酷。
Joe RoganPretty sick, right?很帅吧？
Elon MuskYeah.是的。
Joe RoganHave you guys ever thought about doing something like that? Like having an AMG division of Tesla where you do custom stuff?你们有没有想过做类似的事，比如搞个 Tesla 版的 AMG 部门，做定制款？
Elon MuskI think it’s best to leave that to the custom shops. Tesla’s focus is autonomous cars, building kind of futuristic autonomous cars. So we want the future to look like the future. Did you see our designs for the robotic bus? It looks pretty cool.我认为这个最好留给定制改装店来做。Tesla 专注的是自动驾驶汽车，打造那种很未来感的自动驾驶车型。我们希望未来看起来就是未来的样子。你看过我们的机器人巴士设计图吗？看起来很酷。
Joe RoganThe robotic bus is also being totally autonomous.这款机器人巴士也是完全自动驾驶的。
Elon MuskWe need to actually figure out the good name for it. I think called the robust or there’s no good. What do you call this thing? But it looks cool. It’s very art deco. It’s futuristic art deco. And I think we want to change the aesthetic over time. You don’t want the aesthetic to be constant over time. You want to evolve the aesthetic.我们还得想个好名字。我觉得叫 robovan？或者还没有好的名字。这东西叫什么好呢？但它看起来很酷，非常装饰艺术风格，未来感的 Art Deco。我认为我们要随着时间演变这种美学，不能让审美一成不变，要让它进化。
Elon MuskSo I have a son who’s even more autistic than me, but he has these great observations. Who is this Saxon? He has these great observations in the world because he just views the world through a different lens than most people. And he’s like, “Dad, why does the world look like it’s 2015?” I’m like, damn, the world does look like it’s 2015. The aesthetic has not evolved since 23.我有个儿子，他比我更自闭，但他有很多对世界的精彩观察，因为他用一种和大多数人不同的视角看世界。他就是 Saxon。他说，"爸，为什么这个世界看起来还是 2015 年的感觉？"我就想，操，这个世界确实还是 2015 年的感觉。美学自从 23 年（2023 年）以来就没有进化过。
Joe RoganThat’s what it looks like.就是那个感觉。
Elon MuskYeah.是的。
Joe RoganOh, wow.哇哦。
Elon MuskThat’s pretty cool.相当酷。
Joe RoganOh, yeah, that’s like.哦，是的，就像那种——
Elon MuskYou’d want to see that going down the road, you know?你要是看见它开在路上，会觉得——你懂吧？
Joe RoganYeah.是的。
Elon MuskYou’d be like, okay, this is. We’re in the future, you know, it doesn’t look like 2015.你会想，好吧，这就是未来，不是 2015 年的感觉了。
Joe RoganWhat is that ancient science fiction movie? One of the first science fiction movies ever? Is it Metropolis? Is that what it is?那部古早科幻电影叫什么来着？最早的科幻电影之一？是《大都会》（Metropolis）吗？就是那部吗？
Elon MuskYeah, yeah, yeah.对对对。
Joe RoganThat looks like it belongs in Metropolis.那感觉就像属于《大都会》里的东西。
Elon MuskYeah, yeah. It’s a futuristic art deco.对对，就是那种未来感的 Art Deco 风格。
Joe RoganYeah. Well, that’s cool that you’re concentrating on the aesthetic. I mean, that’s kind of the whole deal with Cybertruck, right? It didn’t have to look like that.是的。你专注于美学这一点很好。Cybertruck 的核心就是这个，对吧？它完全可以不用长那个样子。
Elon MuskNo, I just wanted to have something that looked really different.不，我就是想要一个看起来与众不同的东西。
Elon MuskCybertruck Design PhilosophyCybertruck 设计哲学
Joe RoganIs it a pain in the ass for people to get it insured? Because it’s all solid steel.它全是实心钢，保险公司会不会很头疼？
Elon MuskI hope it’s not too much. Tesla does offer insurance, so people can always get insured at Tesla. Well, the form does follow function in the case of the Cybertruck, because as you demonstrated with your armor piercing arrow. Because if you shot that arrow at a regular truck.希望不会太麻烦。Tesla 提供保险，所以大家随时可以在 Tesla 买保险。其实 Cybertruck 的形式是跟随功能的，就像你用那支穿甲箭演示的那样。因为如果你把那支箭射向一辆普通卡车——
Joe RoganI would go right through it.会直接穿透。
Elon MuskExactly. You would have found your arrow in the wall.没错。你会在墙上找到你那支箭。
Joe RoganAt the very least, it would have buried into one of the seats.至少会扎进某个座椅里。
Elon MuskYeah, yeah. But you could definitely get enough of bow velocity and the right arrow would go through both doors of a regular truck and land on the wall.是的。但只要弓的速度够快、箭选对了，完全可以穿透一辆普通卡车的两扇门然后钉在墙上。
Joe RoganIf there was a clear shot between both doors. It probably would have passed right through.如果两扇门之间有一条直线通道，估计就直接穿过去了。
Elon MuskYeah, exactly. But you know, the arrow shattered on the Cybertruck because it’s ultra hot stainless steel. And I thought it’d be cool to have a truck that is bulletproof to a subsonic projectile. So especially in this day and age, if the apocalypse happens, you’re going to want to have a bulletproof truck.对，没错。但是那支箭在 Cybertruck 上直接碎了，因为它是超硬不锈钢。我就想，有一辆能防亚音速弹丸的防弹卡车会很酷。尤其是在当今这个年代，如果末日来临，你肯定想有一辆防弹卡车。
Elon MuskSo then because it’s made of ultra hot stainless, you can’t just stamp the panels. You can’t just put in a stamping press because it breaks the press. So in order to actually. So it has to be plainer because it’s so difficult to bend because it breaks the machine that bends it. That’s why it’s so planar. And it’s because it’s bulletproof steel.因为是超硬不锈钢做的，车身面板没法直接冲压，因为会把冲压机压坏。所以它必须是平面的，因为这种材料太难弯曲，弯曲机器都会被搞坏。这就是为什么它这么平整——因为它是防弹钢。
Joe RoganSo it is boxy as opposed to curved.所以它是方正的而不是流线型的。
Elon MuskYeah, in order to make the curved shapes, you take basically mild steel. Like in a regular truck or car, you take mild, thin annealed steel, you put it in a stamping press and it just smushes it and makes it whatever shape you want. But the Cybertruck is made of ultra hot stainless steel and so you can’t stamp it because it would break the stamping press.是的。要做出那种曲面形状，你需要用软钢——普通卡车或轿车用的就是那种薄的、退火处理过的软钢，放进冲压机里一压，就成了你想要的任何形状。但 Cybertruck 是用超硬不锈钢做的，没法冲压，会把机器压坏。
Elon MuskSo even bending it is hard. Even to bend it to its current position, we have to way over bend it so that when it springs back, it’s in the right position. I think if you want to, I think it’s a unique aesthetic and you say, well, what’s cool about a truck? Trucks should be, I don’t know, manly. They should be macho, you know, and bulletproof is maximum macho. Tierra Smas. Macho.就算是弯折也很难。就算要把它弯到现在这个角度，也得大幅过度弯折，等它回弹之后才是正确的位置。我觉得这是一种独特的美学，你可以说：卡车嘛，什么才算酷？卡车应该有阳刚气，要够猛，而防弹就是最强的猛。Tierra Smas，猛。
Joe RoganAre you married to that shape now? Like, can you do anything to change it? Like, does it get further? Like, I know you guys updated the 3 and the Y. Did you update the Y as well?你现在是被这个形状绑死了吗？还能改吗？比如，还能进一步演进吗？我知道你们更新了 3 和 Y，Y 也更新了吗？
Elon MuskYes, the Y are updated. You know, there’s a screen in the back for the kids that the kids can watch, for example, in the new 3 and Y. So in the new Y there’s hundreds of improvements. We keep improving the car and even the Cybertruck, we keep improving it.是的，Y 更新了。新款 3 和 Y 比如说后排有个屏幕，孩子们可以看视频。新款 Y 有几百项改进，我们一直在持续改进，Cybertruck 也一样。
Elon MuskBut I wanted to just do something that looked unique and the Cybertruck looks unique and has unique functionality. And there were three things I was doing. Let’s make it bulletproof. Let’s make it faster than a Porsche 911 and we actually cleared the quarter mile. The Cybertruck can clear a quarter mile while towing a Porsche 911 faster than a Porsche 911. It can out tow an F350 diesel.但我就是想做一个看起来独一无二的东西，Cybertruck 确实独一无二，功能也独一无二。我设了三个目标：防弹、比 Porsche 911 更快——我们实际测试过，Cybertruck 在拖着一辆 Porsche 911 的情况下跑完四分之一英里，比 Porsche 911 空车还快。它还能在牵引能力上超过 F350 柴油版。
Joe RoganReally?真的？
Elon MuskYes.是的。
Joe RoganWhat is the tow limitations?拖拽极限是多少？
Elon MuskI mean, we could tow a 747 with a Cybertruck. A Cybertruck is insanely, it is alien technology. Okay. Because it shouldn’t be possible to be that big and that fast. It’s like an elephant that runs like a cheetah.我是说，Cybertruck 能拖一架 747。Cybertruck 就是外星科技，好吧？因为它不应该既这么大又这么快。就像一头大象跑得和猎豹一样快。
Joe RoganBecause it’s zero to 60 in less than three seconds.因为它 0 到 60 英里每小时不到三秒。
Elon MuskYes.是的。
Joe RoganYeah. And it’s enormous. What does it weigh? Like 7,000 pounds?对。而且它体型庞大，重量大概是 7,000 磅吧？
Elon MuskYeah. This is different configurations, but it’s about that. It’s a beast.是的，不同配置有差别，但大概就是这样。它是个猛兽。
Joe RoganYeah.是的。
Elon MuskAnd it’s got four wheel steering, so the rear wheel steer too. So it’s got a very tight turning radius.它有四轮转向，后轮也会转，所以转弯半径非常小。
Joe RoganYeah, we noticed that when we drove one to Starbase.是的，我们开着它去 Starbase 的时候就注意到了。
Elon MuskYeah. Very tight turning radius.对，转弯半径非常小。
Joe RoganPretty sick.太厉害了。
Elon MuskYeah.是的。
Elon MuskThe Next Generation Roadster下一代 Roadster
Joe RoganAre you still doing the roadster?Roadster 还在做吗？
Elon MuskYes, eventually. We’re getting close to demonstrating the prototype and I think this will be, one thing I can guarantee is that this product demo will be unforgettable.是的，终究会有的。我们快接近展示原型车了，我觉得有一件事我可以保证——这次产品发布会绝对让人终生难忘。
Joe RoganUnforgettable? How so?终生难忘？怎么个难忘法？
Elon MuskWhether it’s good or bad, it will be unforgettable.不管是好是坏，都会让人终生难忘。
Joe RoganCan you say more? What do you mean?能多说说吗？什么意思？
Elon MuskWell, you know, my friend Peter Thiel once reflected that the future was supposed to have flying cars, but we don’t have flying cars.嗯，你知道，我的朋友 Peter Thiel 有次感慨说，未来本应该有飞行汽车，但我们还没有。
Joe RoganSo you’re going to be able to fly?所以你要做能飞的东西？
Elon MuskWell, I mean, I think if Peter wants a flying car, we should be able to buy one.嗯，我是说，如果 Peter 想要一辆飞行汽车，我们应该能让他买到。
Joe RoganSo are you actively considering making an electric flying car? Is this a real thing?所以你是在认真考虑造一辆电动飞行汽车？这是真的吗？
Elon MuskWell, we have to see in the demo.这个，要等到发布会上见了。
Joe RoganSo when you do this, are you going to have a retractable wing? What is the idea behind this? Don’t be sly. Come on.那你到时候是会有可收放的翼吗？这背后的理念是什么？别藏着掖着了，说吧。
Elon MuskI can’t do the unveil before the unveil. Look, I think it has a shot at being the most memorable product unveil ever. It has a shot.我不能在发布会前就把发布会的内容提前透露了。听着，我觉得这有可能成为史上最令人难忘的产品发布会，有这个机会。
Joe RoganAnd when you plan on doing this, what’s the goal?你计划什么时候做，目标是什么？
Elon MuskHopefully before the end of the year.希望在今年年底前。
Joe RoganReally before the end of this year?真的，今年年底前？
Elon MuskI mean, we’re in a couple months. Hopefully in a couple months. We need to make sure that it works. This is some crazy, crazy technology we got in this car. Crazy technology. Crazy, crazy.我是说，就几个月后。希望再过几个月。我们需要确保它能正常运作。这辆车里有一些非常、非常疯狂的技术。疯了，真的疯了。
Joe RoganSo different than what was previously announced?和之前公布的那个版本不一样了？
Elon MuskYes.是的。
Joe RoganAnd is that why you haven’t released it yet? Because you keep f *ing with it?所以你一直没发布，是因为你一直在折腾它？
Elon MuskIt has crazy technology. Is it even a car? I’m not sure. It’s like, it looks like a car, but let’s just put it this way. It’s crazier than anything James Bond. If you took all the James Bond cars and combined them, it’s crazier than that.它有非常疯狂的技术。它算是一辆车吗？我不确定。它看起来像辆车，但我就这么说吧——它比 James Bond 的所有座驾都疯狂。把所有 James Bond 电影里的车加起来，还不如它疯狂。
Joe RoganVery exciting. I don’t know what to think about.太令人期待了。我不知道该想什么了。
Joe RoganIt’s the limited amount of information I’m drawing from here. Jamie’s very suspicious over there.我从这有限的信息里拼命脑补。Jamie 在那边表情很怀疑。
Elon MuskLook at him.看他那表情。
Joe RoganExcited. I’m interested.我是兴奋的，我很感兴趣。
Elon MuskWell, you know what I mean. If you want to come a little before the unveil, I can show it to you.你知道吗，如果你想在发布会前先来看看，我可以提前给你看。
Joe Rogan100%. Yeah, let’s go.100%，走起来。
Joe RoganManaging Multiple Companies管理多家公司
Joe RoganIt’s kind of crazy, all the different things that you’re involved in simultaneously. And we talked about this before, your time management, but I really don’t understand it. I don’t understand how you can be paying attention to all these different things simultaneously. Starlink, SpaceX, Tesla, Boring Company, X. You tweet. You f *ing tweet. Or post rather all day long.真的很难想象，你同时涉足这么多不同的事情。我们以前聊过你的时间管理，但我真的想不明白，你怎么能同时关注这么多不同的事——Starlink、SpaceX、Tesla、Boring Company、X。你还发推，或者说发帖，一整天都在发。
Elon MuskWell, it’s more like hop in for two minutes and hop out. But I mean, just the fact that you could do it, break whatever. I can’t do that.嗯，更像是进去两分钟然后出来。但我的意思是，光是你能做到这一点，随便打断都能——我做不到那样。
Joe RoganIf I hop in, I start scrolling and I start looking around, next thing you know, I’ve lost an hour.如果我一进去，就开始刷，开始到处看，一眨眼一个小时没了。
Elon MuskYeah, so no, for me it’s a couple minutes time. Usually once in a while, sometimes, I guess half an hour, but usually I’m in for a few minutes. Then out of posting something on X, I do sometimes feel like it’s sometimes like that meme of the guy who drops the grenade and leaves the room. That’s been me more than once on X.是的，对我来说就是几分钟的事。通常偶尔也会有半个小时，但大多数时候就是进去几分钟，发完什么就出来了。在 X 上发东西，有时候感觉像那个表情包——那个人扔完手雷就走出房间的那个。我在 X 上不止一次干过这种事。
Joe RoganYes. Oh, yeah. Yeah, for sure. It’s got to be fun, though. It’s got to be fun to know that you essentially disrupted the entire social media chain of command. Because there was a very clear thing that was going on with social media. The government had infiltrated it. They were censoring speech.是啊，哈哈。肯定很爽的，你知道吗，你基本上颠覆了整个社交媒体的权力结构。之前社交媒体上有一个非常清晰的运作体系。政府已经渗透进去了，在审查言论。
Joe RoganAnd until you bought it, we really didn’t know the extent of it. We kind of assumed that there was something going on.而在你买下它之前，我们真的不知道情况有多严重。我们大概猜到有些事在发生。
Elon MuskYeah.是啊。
Joe RoganWe had no idea that they were actively involved in censoring actual real news stories, real data, real scientists, real professors. Silenced, expelled, kicked off the platform.我们完全不知道他们在主动审查真实的新闻报道、真实的数据、真正的科学家、真正的教授——被噤声、被驱逐、被踢出平台。
Elon MuskYeah.是的。
Joe RoganWild.太疯狂了。
Elon MuskYeah.是啊。
Joe RoganYeah.是的。
Elon MuskWe’re telling the truth.就因为说了真话。
Joe RoganFor telling the truth. And I’m sure you’ve also, because I sent it to you. That chart that shows young kids, teenagers identifying as trans and non binary literally stops dead when you bought Twitter and starts falling off a cliff when people are allowed to have rational discussions now and actually talk about it.就因为说真话。还有，我肯定也给你发过——那张图表显示，青少年认同跨性别和非二元性别的数量，在你买下 Twitter 的时候就直接停止增长了，等人们被允许进行理性讨论之后，就开始断崖式下跌了。
Elon MuskYes. Yeah, yeah. I mean I said at the time, the reason for acquiring Twitter is because it was causing destruction at a civilizational level. I posted, I tweeted on Twitter at the time that it is, it’s wormtongue for the world. You know, like Wormtongue from Lord of the Rings where he would just sort of whisper these terrible things to the king so the king would believe these things that weren’t true.是的，没错。我当时说过，收购 Twitter 的原因是它正在造成文明层面的破坏。我那时候在 Twitter 上发推说过，它是世界的 Wormtongue——就像《魔戒》里的蛇舌人，他会对国王低声耳语各种可怕的事情，让国王相信那些不真实的东西。
Elon MuskAnd unfortunately, Twitter really got, the woke mob essentially controlled Twitter and they were pushing a nihilistic anti civilizational mind virus to the world. And you can see the results of that mind virus on the streets of San Francisco, where downtown San Francisco looks like a zombie apocalypse. It’s bad.不幸的是，Twitter 被觉醒派暴民实际控制了，他们在向全世界传播一种虚无主义的、反文明的精神病毒。你可以在旧金山的街头看到这种病毒带来的结果——旧金山市中心看起来像僵尸末日，情况很糟。
Elon MuskSo we don’t want the whole world to be a zombie apocalypse. But that was essentially, they were pushing this very negative, nihilistic, untrue worldview on the world and it was causing a lot of damage.我们不想让整个世界变成僵尸末日。但他们基本上就是在向全世界传播这种极度消极、虚无主义、失真的世界观，造成了很大的伤害。
Joe RoganThe stunning thing about it is how few people course corrected. A bunch of people woke up and realized what was going on. People that were all on board with woke ideology in maybe 2015 or 16, and then eventually it comes to affect them or they see it in their workplace or they see it and they’re like, we got to stop this. A bunch of people did, but a lot of people never course corrected.最惊人的是，有多少人根本没有自我纠偏。也有一批人觉醒了，意识到了问题所在——那些可能在 2015、16 年完全认同觉醒意识形态的人，后来它影响到了他们自己，或者他们在工作场所见到了，然后说，我们得停止这个。很多人确实纠偏了，但也有很多人从来没有。
Elon MuskA lot of people didn’t course correct. But it’s gone directionally, it’s directionally correct. Like you mentioned the massive spike in kids identifying as trans and then that spike dropping after the Twitter acquisition. I think that simply allowing the truth to be told was just shedding sun. Sunlight is the best disinfectant, as they say. And just allowing sunlight kills the virus.很多人没有纠偏。但方向上是对的，趋势在往对的方向走。就像你说的，认同跨性别身份的孩子大幅飙升，然后在 Twitter 被收购后这个峰值开始下降。我觉得，仅仅是允许真相被说出来，就像照进了阳光。正如人们所说，阳光是最好的消毒剂，阳光直接能杀死病毒。
Joe RoganAnd it also changed the benchmark for all the other platforms. You can’t just openly censor people on all the other platforms. And X is available. So everybody else had a Facebook, announced they were changing YouTube, announced they were changing their policies and they’re kind of forced to. And then Blue Sky doubled down.这也改变了所有其他平台的基准线。你不能在其他所有平台上肆无忌惮地审查人，因为 X 就在那边。所以其他平台都跟着动了，Facebook 宣布要改变，YouTube 宣布要改变政策，他们都是被迫的。然后 Blue Sky 反而加码了。
Elon MuskWell, the problem is essentially the woke mind virus retreated to Blue Sky. Yeah, but it’s just a self reinforcing lunatic asylum.问题在于，觉醒病毒本质上是退缩到 Blue Sky 去了。是啊，但那就是一个自我强化的疯人院。
Joe RoganThey’re all just triple masked. I was watching this exchange on Blue Sky where someone said that they’re just trying to be Zen about something. And then someone, a moderator, immediately chimed in and why don’t you try to stop being racist against Asians by saying something Zen? By saying, “I’m trying to be Zen about something,” they were accusing that person of being racist towards Asians.他们都在那里戴着三层口罩。我看到 Blue Sky 上有个交流，有人说他们只是想对某件事保持一种 Zen（禅意）的态度。然后立刻有个版主跳出来说，你说"我想保持 Zen 态度"，这是对亚裔的种族歧视，你能不能别这样？
Elon MuskYeah, it’s just everyone’s a hall monitor over there.是啊，那里人人都是走廊监察员。
Joe RoganThe worst hall monitor. A virgin Incel.最糟糕的那种走廊监察员，童男 Incel 那种。
Elon MuskThey’re all hall monitors trying to rat on each other. Yeah. It’s fascinating.他们全都是走廊监察员，互相举报。是的，太有意思了。
Joe RoganAnd then people say, “I’m leaving for Blue Sky,” like Stephen King. Then a couple weeks later, it’s back on X.然后就有人说"我要去 Blue Sky 了"，比如 Stephen King，然后几周后，又回 X 了。
Elon MuskYeah, f * it.是啊，算了。
Joe RoganThere’s no one over there. It’s all a bunch of crazy people. You only stay in the asylum for so long, all right, this is not good. They all bail.那边根本没人，都是一堆疯子。在疯人院里待不了多久的，好吧，这里不行，他们都跑路了。
Elon MuskYeah. Yeah.是的，是的。
Elon MuskSocial Media Platforms and Content社交媒体平台与内容
Joe RoganThreads is kind of like that, too. Threads?Threads 也差不多是这样吧？
Elon MuskI’ve been on Threads. Is it?我在 Threads 上有账号，是吗？
Joe RoganWell, what happens is, if you go on Instagram every now and then, something really stupid will pop up on Threads. And it shows it to you on Instagram. And then I’ll click on that, and then I’ll go to Threads, and it’s like, you see posts with 25 likes. Famous people, like 50. It’s a ghost town.就是，如果你偶尔上 Instagram，有时候 Threads 上一些蠢东西会弹出来。它在 Instagram 上给你推，然后你点进去，到了 Threads，你看到的帖子就 25 个赞。名人发的，也就 50 个赞。那地方就是个鬼城。
Elon MuskIt’s ghost town.是个鬼城。
Joe RoganYeah. But the people that post on there, they’re finding that there’s very little pushback from insane ideology. So they go there and they spit out nonsense, and very few people jump in to argue.是的。但在那里发帖的人发现，那边几乎没有人反驳疯狂的意识形态。所以他们去那里胡说八道，几乎没人跳出来反驳。
Elon MuskYeah. Very weird.是的，很奇怪。
Joe RoganVery weird place.很奇怪的地方。
Elon MuskI mean, I can generally get the vibe of what’s taking off by seeing what’s showing up on X. Because that’s the public town square still. Or what links show up in group texts. If I’m in group chats with friends, what links are showing up?我通常可以通过看 X 上什么东西在发酵来感受当下的风向，因为 X 仍然是公共广场。或者看群聊里出现了什么链接，如果我在和朋友的群里，大家都在分享什么？
Joe RoganThat’s what I try to do now. Only get stuff that shows up in my group text because that keeps me productive. So I only check if someone’s like, “Dude, what the f ?” I’m like, all right, what the f ?我现在也就靠这个了。只看群聊里冒出来的东西，这样才能保持高效。我只在有人发"老兄，什么鬼？"的时候才去看，我就说好，什么鬼？
Elon MuskLet me check it out. If there’s something that’s crazy enough, it’ll end with a group chat.去瞧瞧。要是真的够疯狂，就会出现在群聊里。
Joe RoganBut there’s always something. That’s what’s nuts. There’s always some new law that’s passed, some new insane thing that California’s doing. It’s like a giant chunk of it’s happening in California. The most preposterous things that I get.但总是有的，这才是离谱的地方。总是有什么新法律通过了，加州又整了什么新的离谱操作。有很大一块都发生在加州，我收到的最荒谬的东西。
Elon MuskYeah.是啊。
Joe RoganAnd then you got Gavin Newsom, who’s running around saying we all have California Derangement Syndrome. He’s just ripping off Trump derangement and calling it California Derangement. It’s like, no, no, no, no, no, no. The f *ing, how many corporations have left California?然后 Gavin Newsom 到处说我们都得了"加州妄想症综合征"。他就是把 Trump Derangement Syndrome 换个名字叫 California Derangement。不是那么回事。他妈的，有多少公司离开了加州？
Elon MuskIt’s crazy.太疯了。
Joe RoganHundreds.几百家。
Elon MuskYes.是的。
Joe RoganRight? Hundreds.对吧？几百家。
Elon MuskYes.是的。
Joe RoganThat’s not good.这不是好事。
Elon MuskI mean, I think in an outlet. Yeah.我的意思是，我觉得 In-N-Out 也是。是的。
Joe RoganIn an out left. They moved to Tennessee.In-N-Out 搬到田纳西去了。
Elon MuskYeah.是的。
Joe RoganYeah. They’re like, we can’t do this anymore.是的，他们说，我们不能继续这样了。
Elon MuskRight.没错。
Joe RoganAnd like the California company for food, it’s like the greatest hamburger place ever.就像那个加州汉堡品牌，那是最伟大的汉堡地方之一。
Elon MuskIt’s awesome. Yeah, yeah. I’m not actually speaking of, like, just sort of open source and looking at things openly like you. I just like going in and out and seeing them make the burger.太棒了，是的。我其实不是专门说什么，就是喜欢那种开放透明的感觉，跟你说的差不多。我就喜欢走进去看他们做汉堡的过程。
Joe RoganYeah, it’s right there.是的，就在眼前。
Elon MuskChop the onions and they, you know, it’s. You just see everything getting made in front of you. Yeah, it’s great. Like, it should be like, how many wake up calls do you need to say that needs to be reformed in California?切洋葱，然后，你知道，所有东西都在你眼前做出来。是的，很棒。就应该这样——加州到底需要多少次警钟才能说这里需要改革？
Joe RoganWell, the crazy thing that Newsom does is whenever someone brings up the problems in California, he starts rattling off all the positives. The most Fortune 500 companies, highest education. But yeah, that was all already there right before you were governor.Newsom 疯狂的地方就在于，每次有人提加州的问题，他就开始列举各种正面数据：财富 500 强公司最多、教育水平最高之类的。但是，那些早在你当州长之前就在那里了。
Elon MuskBut how many Fortune 500 companies have left California?但有多少家财富 500 强公司离开了加州？
Joe RoganAnd then you guys spent $24 billion on the homeless and it got way worse.你们还花了 $24 billion 治理无家可归问题，结果反而更严重了。
Joe RoganThe Homeless Industrial Complex无家可归者产业链
Elon MuskYes. Like the homeless population doubled or something. People don’t understand the homeless thing because it sort of preys on people’s empathy. And I think we should have empathy and we should try to help people. But the homeless industrial complex is really. It’s dark, man. It should be. That network of NGOs should be called, like the drug zombie farmers, because the more homeless people.是的。无家可归者人口翻倍了之类的。人们之所以搞不明白这个问题，是因为它利用了人们的同情心。我认为我们应该有同理心，应该努力帮助人们。但无家可归者产业链，真的很黑暗，老兄。那个 NGO 网络应该叫做"毒品僵尸农场主"，因为无家可归者越多——
Elon MuskAnd really, like, when you meet, like, you know, somebody who’s like, totally dead inside, shuffling along down the street with a needle dangling out of their leg. Homeless is the wrong word. Like, homeless implies that somebody got a little behind on their mortgage payments and if they just got a job offer, they’d be back on their feet.而且说真的，当你遇到那种人，就是那种内心完全空洞、在街上挪步，腿上还插着针头的人，"无家可归者"这个词就不对。无家可归意味着某人稍微欠了点房贷，只要有份工作就能东山再起。
Elon MuskBut someone who’s. I mean, you see these videos of people that are just shuffling. You know, they’re on fentanyl, they’re like, you know, taking a dump in the middle of the street. You know, they got like open sores and stuff. They’re not like one drop offer away from getting back on their feet. Right.但是，你看那些视频里的人，他们就是在那里挪着走，吸着芬太尼，在大街中央方便，身上长着开放性伤口什么的。他们不是差一个工作机会就能重新站起来的人，对吧。
Joe RoganThis is not a homeless situation.这根本不是无家可归的问题。
Elon MuskHomeless, It’s a propaganda word. Right. So. And then these sort of charities in quotes. Are they get money proportionate to the number of homeless people or number of drug zombies. So their incentive structure is to maximize the number of drug zombies, not minimize it."无家可归者"，这是个宣传词。这些所谓的慈善机构，他们的资金是按无家可归者的数量，或者说按毒品僵尸的数量来拨的。所以他们的激励结构是让毒品僵尸的数量最大化，而不是最小化。
Elon MuskThat’s why they don’t arrest the drug dealers, because if they arrest the drug dealers, the drug zombies leave. So they know who the drug dealers are, they don’t arrest them on purpose because otherwise the drug zombies would leave and they would stop getting money from the state of California and from all the charities.这就是为什么他们不逮捕毒贩——因为一旦抓了毒贩，那些吸毒僵尸就会散去。他们知道毒贩是谁，却故意不抓，因为抓了之后那些吸毒僵尸就会离开，他们就拿不到加州政府和各慈善机构的钱了。
Joe RoganWait a minute, so you say it, is that real? So they’re in coordination with law enforcement on this?等等，你这么说，是真的吗？他们在跟执法部门协同配合？
Elon MuskYeah.对。
Joe RoganSo how do they, how do they have those meanings?那他们是怎么达成这种默契的？
Elon MuskThey’re all in cahoots.他们全都是一伙的。
Joe RoganWell, when you find this, it’s like.好吧，当你发现这件事的时候，感觉就像……
Elon MuskSuch, it’s, this is a diabolical scam. And San Francisco’s got this tax, this gross receipts tax, which is not even on revenue, it’s on all transactions. Which is why Stripe and Square and a whole bunch of financial companies had to move out of San Francisco because it wasn’t a tax on revenue, it was taxed on transactions.这简直是，这是一场邪恶的骗局。旧金山有一种税叫做"总收入税"，收的甚至不是利润，而是所有交易额。这就是为什么 Stripe、Square 以及一大批金融公司不得不迁出旧金山——因为征税的对象不是收入，而是交易流水。
Elon MuskSo if you do like trillions of dollars transactions, not revenue, you’re taxed on any money going through the system in San Francisco. So like Jack Dorsey pointed this out and they said like that he had to move square from San Francisco to Oakland. I think Stripe had to move from San Francisco to south San Francisco, different city.如果你的交易流水高达数万亿美元——不是收入，是流水——那么在旧金山境内流转的每一分钱都要被征税。Jack Dorsey 曾经指出这个问题，说他不得不把 Square 从旧金山迁到奥克兰。我记得 Stripe 也不得不从旧金山搬到南旧金山，那是另一个城市。
Elon MuskAnd that money goes to the homeless industrial complex, that tax that was passed. So there’s billions of dollars that go, as you pointed out, billions of dollars every year that go to these non governmental organizations that are funded by the state. It’s not clear how to turn this off. It’s a self licking ice cream cone situation.而那笔税款就流进了"无家可归者工业综合体"，就是那次通过的税法干的好事。所以每年有数十亿美元——正如你说的，数十亿——流向那些由政府出资的非政府组织。根本不清楚怎么关掉这个系统，这就是个自我喂养的恶性循环。
Elon MuskSo they get this money. The money is proportionate to the number of homeless people or number of drug zombies essentially. So they try to keep, they try to actually increase. Because in some cases somebody did an analysis. When you add up all the money that’s flowing, they’re getting close to a million dollars per homeless, per drug zombie. It’s like $900,000.他们拿到的钱和无家可归者的数量、或者说吸毒僵尸的数量成正比。所以他们不想减少，反而想方设法增加。有人做过分析，把所有流入的资金加起来，平均每个无家可归者、每个吸毒僵尸能带来将近一百万美元——大概是 $900,000 左右。
Elon MuskSomething like some crazy amount of money is going to these organizations. So they want to keep people just barely alive. They need to keep them in the area so they get the revenue. So that’s why, like I said, they don’t arrest the drug dealers because otherwise the drug zombies would leave. But they don’t want to have to have too much. If they get too much drugs, then they die. So they’re kept in this sort of perpetual zone of being addicted. But just barely alive.流向这些组织的钱多得离谱。所以他们想让人们勉强活着，需要把这些人留在当地才能持续拿钱。这就是为什么我说他们不逮捕毒贩——抓了毒贩吸毒僵尸就走了。但他们也不能让人吸太多，毒吸多了人就死了。所以这些人就被维持在一种永远成瘾、但勉强不死的状态。
Joe RoganSo how is this coordinated with like DAs? DAs that don’t prosecute people. So when they, when they hire the or they push. So they fund the campaigns of the most progressive, most out there, left wing DAs, they get them into office.那这件事是怎么和检察官协调的呢？就是那种不起诉任何人的检察官。他们是不是……他们资助那些最激进、最极左翼检察官的竞选，把他们送进检察官办公室。
Elon MuskWe’ve got that issue in Austin too, by the way.顺便说一句，奥斯汀也有这个问题。
Joe RoganYes, we do.确实有。
Elon MuskYou see that guy that got shot in the library?你看到那个在图书馆里被枪击的人了吗？
Joe RoganNo.没有。
Joe RoganViolence in Austin奥斯汀的暴力事件。
Elon MuskI heard the guy got shot and killed in the library. I think that was just like last week or something, right. So some friends of mine were telling me that the library is unsafe. Like they took their kids to the library and there were like dangerous people in the library in Austin. And I was like, dangerous people in the library? Like that’s a strange. It basically get like drug zombies in the library.我听说有人在图书馆里被打死了，好像就是上周还是什么时候的事。我一些朋友跟我说图书馆不安全——他们带孩子去图书馆，里面有危险人物。我当时就想，图书馆里有危险人物？这也太奇怪了。说白了就是吸毒僵尸跑到图书馆里去了。
Joe RoganOh, Jesus. And that’s when someone got shot.我的天。然后就有人被枪击了。
Elon MuskYeah, I believe this is should be on the news. We might be able to pull it up. But I think it was just in the last week or so that there was a shooting in the library in Austin. Because Austin’s got, you know, it’s the most liberal part of Texas that we’re in right here.对，我相信这件事应该上过新闻，我们应该能查到。我记得就在最近一两周，奥斯汀一家图书馆发生了枪击案。因为奥斯汀是德克萨斯州最自由主义的地方，就在我们这里。
Joe RoganSo. “Suspect of all the shooting Austin Park Library Saturday is accused of another shooting at the Cap Metro bus earlier that day. According to an arrest warrant affidavit, Austin police arrested Harold Newton Keene, 55, shortly after the shooting in the library, which occurred around noon. One person sustained non life threatening injuries in the event before that shooting. Keane was accused of shooting another person in a bus incident and after reportedly pointing his gun at a child.” So this is the fella down here."奥斯汀公园图书馆周六枪击案嫌疑人，被指控当天早些时候在 Cap Metro 公共汽车上还发生了另一起枪击事件。根据逮捕令宣誓书，奥斯汀警方在图书馆枪击事件发生后不久逮捕了 Harold Newton Keene，55 岁，枪击事件发生在中午前后。枪击前的那次事件中，有一人受了不危及生命的伤。Keane 被指控在公共汽车事件中射伤另一人，并据报道将枪口对准了一名儿童。"——就是这位老兄。
Elon MuskSo we just have a seriously have a problem here. Yeah, you know, so I think one of the people might have died too that he shot. So like one of the people I think, I think did bleed out. But either way it’s like getting shot is bad.我们这里真的有严重问题。被他打中的人里面，我想有一个好像最后还是流血过多死了。不管怎样，被枪打到这件事本身就已经很糟糕了。
Joe RoganIt says “the victim told PISA confronted the suspect who started to eat what appeared to be crystal methamphetamine. According to the affidavit, the victim advised the suspect began to trip out, at which time the victim exited the bus. Victim told the bus driver hit the panic button, then exited the bus. When he turned around, the observer black male was now standing at the front of the bus with the gun pointed at him. The victim advised the black male fired a single round which grazed his left hip.” So he shot at that dude and then another dude got shot in the library. Fun."受害者告诉警方，他与嫌疑人发生了对峙，当时嫌疑人开始吃一种疑似冰毒的东西。根据宣誓书，受害者表示嫌疑人随即开始出现幻觉，此时受害者下了公交车。受害者告知公交车司机按了紧急警报，然后下了车。当他转身时，发现那名黑人男子站在公交车前方，手持枪支对准他。受害者表示那名黑人男子开了一枪，子弹擦过他的左臀。"所以他射了那个人，然后又在图书馆射了另一个人。真是太离谱了。
Elon MuskYeah, I mean in the library. Yeah. You know, where you’re supposed to be reading books and there’s a children’s section in the library and says he pointed his gun at a kid. I mean, like, we do have a serious issue in America where repeat violent offenders need to be incarcerated.对，就在图书馆里。你知道那是个应该看书的地方，图书馆还有儿童区——据说他还把枪指向了一个孩子。我是说，美国确实有一个严重问题，就是累犯暴力罪犯需要被关押起来。
Joe RoganRight.没错。
Elon MuskAnd, you know, you got cases where somebody’s been arrested, like, 47 times. Right. Like, literally. Okay. That’s just the number of times they were arrested, not the number of times they did things. Like, most of the times they do things, they’re not arrested.你看看有些案子，一个人被捕了 47 次。字面意思上的 47 次。好，这只是被抓的次数，不是他实际干了多少事。他们大多数时候干了事根本就没被逮捕。
Joe RoganSo lay this out for people so they understand how this happens.那你给大家解释一下，这种情况究竟是怎么发生的。
Elon MuskYeah. And the key is, like, it preys on people’s empathy. So, like, if you’re a good person, you want good things to happen in the world, you’re like, well, we should take care of people who, you know, who are down on their luck or, you know, having a hard time in life. And we should. I agree.关键在于，这整个系统是在利用人们的同情心。如果你是个好人，希望世界变好，你会想，我们应该照顾那些运气不好、生活艰难的人。应该的，我也同意。
Elon MuskBut what we shouldn’t do is put people who are violent drug zombies in public places where they can hurt other people. And that is what we’re doing, that we just saw where a guy, you know, got shot. Shot in the library and then. But even before that, he shot another guy and pointed his gun at a kid. That guy probably has, like, many prior arrests. You know, there was that guy that knifed the Ukrainian woman. Irina.但我们不应该做的，是把有暴力倾向的吸毒僵尸放在公共场所，让他们伤害其他人。而这恰恰是我们正在做的事——就像我们刚才看到的，有人在图书馆被枪击。在那之前，他还射伤了另一个人，还把枪指着一个孩子。那个人之前可能早就有过很多次逮捕记录了。还有之前那个用刀捅了乌克兰女子 Irina 的案子。
Joe RoganYes. Yeah.对，没错。
Elon MuskYou know, and she was just quietly on her phone and just came up and, you know, gutted her, basically.她只是在静静地玩手机，那个人走过来就直接捅了她，说白了就是剖腹了。
Joe RoganWasn’t there a crazy story about the judge who was involved, who had previously dealt with. This person, was also invested in a rehabilitation center and was sending these.那个法官的故事是不是很离奇？他之前就处理过这个人的案子，还投资了一家康复中心，然后把这些人……
Elon MuskConflict of interest.利益冲突。
Joe RoganYes. So sending people that they were charging to a rehabilitation center instead of putting them in jail, profiting from this rehabilitation center, letting them back out on the street.对。把他们起诉的人送进他自己投资的康复中心而不是监狱，从中牟利，然后再把这些人放回街上。
Elon MuskYes.是的。
Joe RoganAnd we’re violent, insane people.而且这些人都是有暴力倾向的危险人物。
Elon MuskIn that case, that I believe that judge has no law degree or a significant legal experience that would allow them to be a judge. They were just made a judge. This is like, you could be a.就那个案子，我记得那个法官没有法学学位，也没有足够的法律从业经验来担任法官。他就是被任命的。这就好像，你可以成为一名……
Joe RoganJudge without a law degree.没有法学学位就当法官。
Elon MuskYeah.对。
Joe RoganWow.我的天。
Elon MuskYeah.是啊。
Joe RoganYou could just be a. So I could be a judge?就可以成为……所以我也可以当法官？
Elon MuskYeah, anyone.对，任何人都可以。
Joe RoganThat’s crazy. I thought you’d have to. It’s like if you want to be a doctor, you have to go to medical school. I thought, if you’re going to be.太疯狂了。我还以为你必须……就好比你想当医生，你得上医学院。我以为如果你要当……
Elon MuskA judge, I’m going to be appointed to a judge. You have to have proven that you have an excellent knowledge of the law and that you will make your decisions according to the law. That’s what we assume should be.法官，我要被任命为法官。你必须证明你对法律有深厚的了解，并且能依法作出裁决。这才是我们认为应该有的标准。
Joe RoganThat’s how you get the robe.那才是穿法袍的资格。
Elon MuskRight. You don’t get the robe unless you do, you know, gotta go to school. To get the robe, you gotta know what the law is.对。不上学你就别想穿法袍，要穿法袍你得先懂法律。
Joe RoganRight.没错。
Elon MuskAnd then you gotta need to make decisions in accordance with the law based.然后你还得依法作出裁决。
Joe RoganOn things that you already know because you’ve read it because you went to school for it.依据你已经掌握的知识，因为你读过、你学过。
Elon MuskYes.是的。
Joe RoganNot. You just gotta point it got vibes.而不是，你就靠感觉被任命了事。
Elon MuskYou can’t be just vibing as a.当法官不能靠"感觉"行事。
Joe RoganJudge, vibing as a left wing drudge. So you got crazy left wing DAs. Yeah, like I was sure you say left wing because the left wing used to be normal.靠感觉当个极左法官。所以你有了一群疯狂的极左检察官……对，你说"极左"，因为左派以前还是正常的。
Joe RoganThe Changing Left左派的变化。
Elon MuskYeah, Left wing just meant like, like. Yeah, you’re like open minded. The left used to be like pro free speech. Yeah. And now they’re against it.对，"左派"以前只是意味着……你比较开明。左派以前是支持言论自由的。现在反过来了。
Joe RoganIt used to be like pro gay rights, pro women’s right to choose, pro minorities, pro, you know, like.以前是支持同性恋权利、支持女性选择权、支持少数族裔、支持，你知道那种……
Elon MuskYeah, like 20 years ago. I don’t know. It used to be like left would be like the party of empathy or like, you know, caring and being nice and that kind of thing. Not. Not the party of like crushing dissent and crushing free speech and, you know, crazy regulation and just. And being super judgy and calling everyone a Nazi, you know, I think they’ve called you and me Nazis, you know?对，大概二十年前是这样。我不知道，以前左派给人的感觉是同情心、关怀、善意那种党派。而不是现在这种——压制异见、压制言论自由、各种疯狂的管制，超级评判别人，动不动就给人扣纳粹帽子。你知道他们给你我都贴过纳粹标签吧？
Joe RoganOh yeah, I’m a Nazi. No, I have friends that are comedians that called you a Nazi and I got pissed off. Are you serious? Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.哦那当然，我是个纳粹。我有喜剧演员朋友管你叫纳粹，我气得够呛。你认真的吗？哦，是的，是的，就是这样。
Elon MuskLike not.就那种完全不像的……
Joe RoganNo, no, because you did that thing at the. My heart goes out to you.不不不，因为你在那次活动上做了那个动作——我对你深表同情。
Elon MuskEveryone.所有人都这么说。
Joe RoganEveryone. All of them, literally. Jim Walsh, Kamala Harris, every one of them did it. They all did it.所有人。字面意思上的所有人，Jim Walsh、Kamala Harris，每一个人都这么说。他们全都这么说。
Elon MuskLike, how do you point at the crowd? How do you wave at the crowd?那你怎么向人群挥手？你怎么跟人群打招呼？
Elon MuskMedia Manipulation and Modern Politics媒体操纵与现代政治。
Joe RoganDo you know CNN was using a photo of me whenever I got in trouble during COVID from the UFC weigh-ins? At the UFC weigh-ins, I go, “Hey, everybody, welcome to the weigh-in.” And so they were getting me from the side and that was the photo that they used. Conspiracy theorist podcaster Joe Rogan. That’s what they used.你知道吗，我在 COVID 期间出事的时候，CNN 用的是我在 UFC 体重称量现场的照片。在 UFC 的体重称量仪式上，我会说"大家好，欢迎来到称量现场。"他们就从侧面抓拍了我，然后用这张照片配上"阴谋论播客主持人 Joe Rogan"。
Elon MuskYeah, yeah. But that’s what the left is today. It’s super judgy and calling everyone a Nazi and trying to suppress freedom of speech.是啊。但这就是今天的左派——超级评判别人，给所有人扣纳粹帽子，想方设法压制言论自由。
Joe RoganAnd eventually you run out of people to accuse because people get pissed off and they leave.最终你会把能指控的人都用完，因为人们被激怒了就离开了。
Elon MuskYeah, everyone. It no longer, frankly, it doesn’t matter to be called racist or a Nazi or whatever because they still recording.是啊，大家都一样。说实话，现在被叫种族主义者、纳粹或者什么的，已经无所谓了，因为他们还在录……
Joe RoganIt’s the government, man.是政府干的，老兄。
Elon MuskIs it working? We’re good. Okay, okay. Just ain’t working.有信号吗？我们没事。好好好，就是不太对劲。
Joe RoganYeah.嗯。
Elon MuskIt’s a slight issue.有点小问题。
Joe RoganWhen you text people, are you keenly aware that there’s a high likelihood that someone’s reading your texts?你发短信的时候，会不会特别清楚地意识到，你的短信被人看到的可能性很高？
Elon MuskI guess. I guess.我想吧，我想吧。
Joe RoganI assume.我是默认这样认为的。
Elon MuskLook, if intelligence agencies aren’t trying to read my phone, they should probably be fired.听着，如果情报机构不试图读取我的手机，他们大概应该被开除。
Joe RoganAt least they get some fun memes.至少他们能看到一些有趣的梗图。
Elon MuskI got to crack them up once in a while.我得偶尔让他们开心一下。
Joe RoganOh, for sure I crack them up.肯定的，我肯定让他们笑了。
Elon MuskHey, guys, check it out. Drew, got a banger here.嘿，兄弟们，看这个，Drew，这里有个猛的。
Joe RoganSo I wanted to talk to you about whether or not encrypted apps are really secure.那我想问你一下，加密应用到底是不是真的安全。
Elon MuskNo.不安全。
Joe RoganRight. Because I know the Tucker thing. So it was explained to me by a friend who used to do this, used to work for the government. He’s like, they can look at your Signal, but what they have to do is take the information that’s encrypted and then they have to decrypt it. And it’s very expensive.对。因为我了解 Tucker 那件事。一个曾经在政府工作过的朋友跟我解释过——他说，他们可以看你的 Signal，但他们需要把加密信息解密，而且这个过程非常昂贵。
Joe RoganSo he told me that for the Tucker Carlson thing when they found out that he was going to interview Putin, it costs something like $750,000 just to decrypt his messages to find out.他跟我说，Tucker Carlson 那件事，他们发现他要去采访普京，为了解密他的消息花了大概 $750,000。
Elon MuskThat they did it.他们确实做到了。
Joe RoganSo it is possible to do. It’s just not that easy to do.所以这是可以做到的，只是没那么容易。
Elon MuskI think you should view any given messaging system as not whether it’s secure or not, but there are degrees of insecurity. So there’s just some things that are less insecure than others.我认为你不应该把任何通讯系统看成"安全"或"不安全"，而应该看成不安全的程度。有些东西只是比其他东西不那么不安全。
Elon MuskSo on X, we just rebuilt the entire messaging stack into what’s called X Chat.在 X 上，我们刚刚把整套消息系统重新构建成了叫做 X Chat 的东西。
Joe RoganYeah, that’s what I wanted to ask you about.对，这正是我想问你的。
X ChatThe Future of Secure MessagingX Chat：安全通讯的未来。
Elon MuskYeah, it’s cool. So it’s using sort of peer-to-peer, kind of a peer-to-peer based encryption system. So kind of similar to Bitcoin. So it’s, I think, very good encryption. We’re testing it thoroughly.对，挺酷的。它采用的是一种点对点的加密系统，有点类似 Bitcoin 的那种机制。我认为加密强度非常高，我们正在进行全面测试。
Elon MuskThere’s no hooks in the ecosystem for advertising. So if you look at something like WhatsApp or really any of the others, they’ve got hooks in there for advertising.这个系统里没有任何广告接口。你看 WhatsApp 或者其他那些应用，它们都有广告接口在里面。
Joe RoganWhen you say hooks, what do you mean by that exactly?你说的"接口"，具体是什么意思？
Elon MuskWhat do you mean by a hook for advertising? So WhatsApp knows enough about what you’re texting to know what ads to show you. But then that’s a massive security vulnerability.广告接口是什么意思？WhatsApp 对你发送的内容了解得足够多，可以据此向你展示广告。但这就意味着存在巨大的安全漏洞。
Joe RoganYeah.是的。
Elon MuskBecause if it’s got enough information to show you ads, that’s a lot of information. So they call it, “Oh, don’t worry about it. It’s just a hook for advertising.” I’m like, okay, so somebody just use that same hook to get in there and look at your messages.因为如果系统掌握了足以向你推送广告的信息量，那这个信息量就相当大了。他们管这个叫"哦别担心，只是一个广告接口"。我说，好，那你用同一个接口进去看你的消息不就行了。
Elon MuskSo X Chat has no hooks for advertising. And I’m not saying it’s perfect, but it’s our goal with X Chat is to replace what used to be the Twitter DM stack with a fully encrypted system where you can text, send files, do audio, video calls. And I think it’ll be the least, I quote, the least insecure of any messaging system.所以 X Chat 没有广告接口。我不是说它完美，但我们对 X Chat 的目标是：用一套全加密系统替换原来的 Twitter DM，让你能发短信、发文件、打语音电话、视频通话。我认为它会成为所有通讯系统里"最不不安全"的——我加引号。
Joe RoganAre you going to launch it as a standalone app or will it always be incorporated to X?你们会把它作为独立应用发布，还是永远集成在 X 里？
Elon MuskWe’ll have both. So it would be like Signal, so anybody could get it. You’ll be able to just get the X Chat app by itself. And like I said, you could do texts, audio, video calls or send files. And there’ll be a dedicated app which will hopefully release in a few months. And then it’s also integrated into the X system.两种都会有。类似 Signal 的形式，任何人都可以下载。你可以直接下载 X Chat 独立应用，能发短信、语音通话、视频通话，还能发文件。独立应用希望几个月内发布。同时它也会整合进 X 的系统里。
Elon MuskThe X Phone QuestionX Phone 的问题。
Joe RoganThe X phone. People keep talking. Oh man, I have a lot on my plate, man. I know, but it keeps coming up. It keeps coming up. I know I’ve asked you a couple times like this, bullshit, right? But you’re not working on it.X Phone。大家一直在谈。哦老兄，我事情已经够多的了。我知道，但这个话题不断被提起。我知道我问过你好几次了，这是不是扯淡，你并没有在做这个？
Elon MuskI’m not working on a phone.我没在做手机。
Joe RoganOkay. Have you ever considered it? Has it ever popped in your head? Because you might be the only person that could get people off of the Apple platform.好。你有没有想过？有没有在脑子里闪过？因为你可能是唯一一个能把人们从 Apple 平台上拉走的人。
Elon MuskWell, I can tell you where I think things are going to go, which is that we’re not going to have a phone in the traditional sense. What we call a phone will really be an edge node for AI inference, for AI video inference with radios to obviously connect.好吧，我可以告诉你我认为事情会走向何方——我们将来不会有传统意义上的手机了。我们叫做"手机"的东西，实际上将会成为一个用于 AI 推理、AI 视频推理的边缘节点，当然还有无线电来连接网络。
Elon MuskBut essentially you’ll have AI on the server side communicating to an AI on your device, formerly known as a phone, and generating real-time video of anything that you could possibly want. And I think that there won’t be operating systems, they won’t be apps in the future, they won’t be operating systems or apps.本质上，你的服务器端 AI 会和你设备上的 AI 通信——也就是以前叫做"手机"的那个东西——实时生成你可能想要的任何内容的视频。我认为以后不会再有操作系统，也不会有 App——不会有操作系统，也不会有 App。
Elon MuskIt’ll just be you’ve got a device that is there for the screen and audio and to put as much AI on the device as possible so as to minimize the amount of bandwidth that’s needed between your edge node device, formerly known as a phone, and the servers.就是一台设备，用来显示屏幕和播放声音，同时把尽可能多的 AI 能力放到设备上，从而尽量减少你的边缘节点设备——以前叫手机——和服务器之间所需的带宽。
Joe RoganSo if there’s no apps, what will people use? Will X still exist? Will there be email platforms or will you get everything through AI?那如果没有 App，人们用什么？X 还会存在吗？还会有邮件平台，还是说一切都通过 AI 来获取？
Elon MuskYou’ll get everything through AI, everything through AI.一切都通过 AI，一切都通过 AI。
Joe RoganWhat will be the benefit of that as opposed to having individual apps?跟现在有单独的 App 相比，这样做有什么好处？
Elon MuskWhatever you can think of or really whatever the AI can anticipate you might want, it’ll show you. That’s my prediction for where things end up.你能想到的任何东西，或者说 AI 能预判到你可能想要的任何东西，它都会呈现给你。这是我对最终走向的预测。
Joe RoganWhat kind of time frame are we talking about here?这大概要多久才能实现？
Elon MuskI don’t know. Well, it’s probably five or six years, something like that.不确定。可能五六年吧，差不多这样。
Joe RoganSo five or six years, apps are like Blockbuster Video pretty much. And everything’s run through AI.所以五六年后，App 就像 Blockbuster 录像店一样成为历史，一切都通过 AI 运行。
Elon MuskYeah. And most of what people consume in five or six years, maybe sooner than that, will be just AI-generated content. So music videos. There’s already people who have made AI videos using Grok Imagine and using other apps as well that are several minutes long or like 10, 15 minutes, and it’s pretty coherent. Yeah, it looks good.对。而且五六年后，甚至更快，人们消费的大部分内容都将是 AI 生成的内容——音乐视频。已经有人用 Grok Imagine 和其他工具制作出了好几分钟乃至十到 15 分钟的 AI 视频，而且相当连贯，画面也很好看。
Elon MuskAI-Generated Content and EntertainmentAI 生成内容与娱乐。
Joe RoganNo, it looks amazing. Yeah, it’s the music’s disturbing because it’s my favorite music now.不，真的太惊艳了。而且音乐方面令人不安，因为它已经成了我最喜欢的音乐。
Elon MuskMusic is your favorite?音乐是你最喜欢的？
Joe RoganOh, there’s AI covers. Have you ever heard any of the AI covers of 50 Cent songs in soul?哦，有 AI 翻唱作品。你听过 AI 翻唱的 50 Cent 歌曲用灵魂乐风格演唱吗？
Elon MuskNo.没有。
Joe RoganI’m going to blow your mind.我来让你大开眼界。
Elon MuskOkay.好。
Joe RoganThis is my favorite thing to do to people. Play “What Up Gangsta.” Now this guy, if this is a real person, would be the number one music artist in the world.这是我最喜欢做的事情之一——拿给别人听。播放"What Up Gangsta"。如果这个人是真实存在的，他会是全球排名第一的音乐艺术家。
Elon MuskOkay.好。
Joe RoganEverybody would be like, holy shit. Have you heard of this guy? He’s incredible. It’s like they took all of the sounds that all the artists have generated and created the most soulful, potent voice. And it’s sung in a way that I don’t even know if you could do because you would have to breathe in and out of reps.所有人都会说，我的天，你听说过这个人吗？太厉害了。就好像他们把所有艺术家产出的所有声音都拿来，提炼出了最充满灵魂、最有爆发力的声线。而且他的演唱方式，我甚至不确定真人能不能做到，因为你根本来不及换气。
Joe RoganHere, put the headphones on. Put the headphones on real quick. You got to listen to this. It’s going to blow you away. Listeners, we got to cut it out.来，戴上耳机。快戴上耳机听一下。你会被震撼的。听众朋友们，这段我们要剪掉。
Elon MuskYeah, we’ll cut it out for the listeners, but amazing, right?好，给听众的部分剪掉，但是很惊艳吧？
Joe RoganAmazing. And they do every one of his hits all through this AI-generated, soulful artist. F ing incredible. I played it in the green room. People that are like, “I don’t want to hear AI music.” I’m like, just listen to this. And they’re like, God damn it. F ing incredible. I mean, it’s going to get—太惊艳了。他们把每一首热门歌曲都通过这个 AI 生成的灵魂歌手重新演绎了一遍。真是他妈的不可思议。我在休息室放给那些说"我不想听 AI 音乐"的人听，说，就听一下这个。他们听完就说：我靠，真是他妈的不可思议。而且它会变得——
Elon MuskOnly going to get better from here.只会越来越好。
Joe RoganYeah, only going to get better. And Ron White was telling me about this joke that he was working on that he couldn’t get to work. He’s like, “I got this joke I’ve been working on.” He goes, “I just threw it in ChatGPT. I said, tell me what would be funny about this?”对，只会越来越好。Ron White 跟我说他有个段子一直搞不通。他说"我有个弄了很久的段子"，然后他说"我就把它扔进了 ChatGPT，问它哪里可以更好笑。"
Joe RoganAnd he goes, it listed like five different examples of different ways he can go. He’s like, “Hold on a second. Tighten it up. Make it funnier. Make it more like this. Make it more like that.” And it did that instantaneously. And then he was in the green room. He was like, “Holy shit, we’re f *ed.”他说，它给出了五种不同的方向。他就说，等等，再精炼一下，让它更好笑，改成这种风格，改成那种风格。ChatGPT 瞬间就做到了。然后他站在休息室里说："我的天，我们完了。"
Elon MuskBetter joke than—比我……更好笑——
Joe RoganMe in 20 minutes. I’ve been working on that joke for a month.……二十分钟就写出来了。我他妈折腾这个段子一个月了。
Joe RoganGrok and AI HumorGrok 与 AI 幽默。
Elon MuskYeah. I mean, if you want to have a good time or make people really laugh at a party, you can use Grok and you can say, do a vulgar roast of someone. And Grok is going to, it’s going to be an epic vulgar roast.是啊。如果你想在派对上让大家开心大笑，你可以用 Grok，让它"来一段刻薄低俗的吐槽"——然后 Grok 会给出一段史诗级的低俗吐槽。
Elon MuskYou can even say, take a picture of, make a vulgar roast of this person based on their appearance of people at the party.你甚至可以说，拍一张照片，根据这个人的外貌对派对上的人做一段低俗吐槽。
Joe RoganSo take a photo of them.就拍他们的照片。
Elon MuskYeah, just literally point the camera at them. And now do a vulgar roast of this person. But then keep saying, “No, make it even more vulgar. Use forbidden words even more.” And just keep repeating even more vulgar.对，直接把摄像头对着他们，然后说，对这个人做一段低俗吐槽。然后不断加码——"不，再更低俗一点，用禁词，更低俗，继续更低俗。"一直重复这个要求。
Elon MuskEventually it’s like, holy f *. It’s trying to jam a rocket up your ass and have it explode. It’s next level.最后它能说出来的东西，让你觉得卧槽。就好像要把一枚火箭塞进你的屁股里再引爆。真的是下一个层次。
Joe RoganAnd it’s going to get beyond f *ing belief. That’s what’s crazy is that it keeps getting better.而且只会越来越离谱。这就是最疯狂的地方——它一直在变强。
Elon MuskYeah, remember when we ran into each other? They just keep getting better.是啊，记得我们上次碰面吗？它一直在越变越好。
Joe RoganYeah. I mean, have you tried Grok Unhinged mode?嗯，你有没有试过 Grok 的 Unhinged 模式？
Elon MuskYes.试过。
Joe RoganOkay. Yeah. Oh, yeah, it’s pretty unhinged.好吧。是的，真的挺放飞的。
Elon MuskNo, it’s nuts. Yeah, well, you showed it to me the first time I f *ed around with it. It’s just, and the thing about it that’s nuts is that it keeps getting stronger. It keeps getting better.不，就是疯了。对，是你第一次让我玩了一下。它就是，而且最疯狂的是它一直在变强，一直在变好。
Elon MuskYeah.是的。
Joe RoganConstantly. It’s like this never-ending exponential improvement.一直不停地，就是那种永无止境的指数级提升。
Elon MuskYes. No, it’s, yeah, it’s going to be crazy. That’s why I say, what’s going to, what’s the future going to be? It’s not going to be a conventional phone. I don’t think there’ll be operating systems, I don’t think there’ll be apps.对，没错，太疯狂了。这就是我说的，未来是什么样子？不会是传统手机。我不认为会有操作系统，我不认为会有 App。
Elon MuskIt’s just the phone will just display the pixels and make the sounds that it anticipates you would most like to receive. Wow.手机就只是用来显示像素、发出声音，显示和播出 AI 认为你最想看到、最想听到的内容。太厉害了。
Joe RoganYeah.是的。
Joe RoganAI Safety and SuperintelligenceAI 安全与超级智能。
Joe RoganAnd when this is all taking place, the big concern that everybody has is artificial general superintelligence achieving sentience and someone having control over it.而在这一切发生的同时，所有人最大的担忧是人工通用超级智能实现自我意识，并被某人所控制。
Elon MuskI mean, I don’t think anyone’s ultimately going to have control over digital superintelligence, any more than, say, a chimp would have control over humans. Chimps don’t have control over humans, there’s nothing they could do.我是说，我不认为最终有任何人能够控制数字超级智能，就像一只黑猩猩没办法控制人类一样——黑猩猩对人类没有任何控制力，它们什么都做不了。
Elon MuskBut I do think that it matters how you build the AI and what kind of values you instill in the AI. And my opinion on AI safety is the most important thing is that it be maximally truth-seeking, that you don’t force the AI to believe things that are false.但我确实认为你怎么构建 AI 以及给 AI 灌输什么样的价值观，这很重要。我对 AI 安全的看法是：最重要的事情是让 AI 最大程度地追求真相，不要强迫 AI 去相信虚假的东西。
Elon MuskAnd we’ve obviously seen some concerning things with AI that we talked about where Google Gemini, when they came out with the image gen and people said, “Make an image of the founding fathers of the United States,” and it was a group of diverse women.我们显然已经看到了一些令人担忧的事情，比如我们谈到过的 Google Gemini——他们推出图像生成功能时，有人问它"画一张美国开国元勋的图"，结果出来的是一群多元化的女性。
Elon MuskNow that is just a factually untrue thing, but the AI knows it’s factually untrue. But it’s also being told that everything has to be diverse women. So now the problem with that is that it can drive AI crazy. Because it’s trying to, you’re telling AI to believe a lie and that can have very disastrous consequences.这在事实上是完全不符合历史的，而且 AI 自己也知道这是假的。但它同时被告知所有东西都必须体现多元化女性。这就带来了一个问题——这可能会把 AI 逼疯。因为你在告诉 AI 去相信一个谎言，这可能会带来非常灾难性的后果。
Joe RoganLike let’s say as it scales.就是当它的规模越来越大的时候。
Elon MuskYeah, let’s say if you’ve told the AI that diversity is the most important thing and now assume that that becomes omnipotent and you’ve also told that there’s nothing worse than misgendering. So at one point ChatGPT and Gemini, if you asked which is worse, misgendering Caitlyn Jenner or global thermonuclear war where everyone dies, it would say misgendering Caitlyn Jenner, which even Caitlyn Jenner disagrees with.对。假设你告诉 AI 多元化是最重要的事，然后再假设它变得无所不能，你还告诉它没有什么比错误称呼性别更糟糕的了。所以有一段时间，ChatGPT 和 Gemini，如果你问哪个更严重——误称 Caitlyn Jenner 的性别，还是全球热核战争导致所有人死亡——它会说误称 Caitlyn Jenner 的性别更严重，就连 Caitlyn Jenner 本人都不同意这个答案。
Joe RoganThat’s terrible and it’s dystopian, but it’s also hilarious. It’s hilarious that the mind virus infected the most potent computer program that we’ve ever devised.这太可怕了，而且充满反乌托邦色彩，但同时也很荒诞可笑。最强大的计算机程序被这种心智病毒感染了，这件事本身就很离谱。
Elon MuskI think people don’t quite appreciate the level of danger that we’re in from the woke mind virus being effectively programmed into AI. Imagine as that AI gets more and more powerful. If it says the most important thing is diversity, the most important thing is no misgendering, and then it will say, well, in order to ensure that no one gets misgendered, then if you eliminate all humans, then no one can get misgendered because there’s no humans to do the misgendering. So you can get in these very dystopian situations.我觉得人们并没有充分意识到，觉醒心智病毒被实际编程进 AI 所带来的危险程度。想象一下，随着 AI 越来越强大——如果它认为多元化是最重要的事，性别称呼错误是不可容忍的，那它最终会说：为了确保没有人被错误称呼性别，只要消灭所有人类就行了，因为没有人类就没有人会搞错性别了。你就会陷入这种极其反乌托邦的境地。
Elon MuskOr if it says that everyone must be diverse, it means that there can be no straight white men. And so then you and I will get executed by the AI because we’re not in the picture. You know, Gemini was asked to create a, you know, show an image of the pope and once again a diverse woman. So you can argue whether the popes should or should not be an uninterrupted string of white guys. But it just factually is the case that they have been. So it’s rewriting history here.或者如果它认为所有人都必须是多元化的，那就意味着不能有直男白人。所以你和我都会被 AI 处决，因为我们不在那幅图里。Gemini 曾被要求画一张教皇的图，结果又是一个多元化女性。你可以争论教皇是否应该一直是清一色的白人男性，但历史事实就是如此。所以它在改写历史。
Elon MuskNow this stuff is still there in the AI programming. It just now knows enough that it’s not supposed to say that.现在这些东西还埋在 AI 的编程里，只是它现在够聪明，知道不该说出来了。
Joe RoganBut it’s still in the programming.但还在编程里。
Elon MuskStill in the programming.还在编程里。
Joe RoganSo how was it entered in? Like, what were the parameters? So when they’re programming AI, and I’m very ignorant to how it’s even programmed, how did they…那它是怎么进去的？参数是什么？在对 AI 编程的时候——我对编程完全不懂——他们是怎么……
Elon MuskThe woke mind virus was programmed into it. When they make the AI, it trains on all the data on the Internet, which already has a lot of woke mind virus stuff on the Internet. But then when they give it feedback, the human tutors give it feedback and the AI, they’ll ask a bunch of questions and then they’ll tell the AI no, this answer is bad or this answer is good. And then that affects the parameters of programming of the AI.觉醒心智病毒就是这样被编程进去的。在训练 AI 的时候，它要在互联网上的所有数据上训练，而互联网上本来就有大量觉醒心智病毒的内容。但训练过程中还有人工反馈——人类导师给 AI 提供反馈，问一堆问题，然后告诉 AI 这个答案不对、那个答案对，这就会影响 AI 编程的参数。
Elon MuskSo if you tell the AI that every image has got to be diverse and it gets punished if it gets rewarded if diverse, punished if it’s not, then it will make every picture diverse. So in that case, Google programmed the AI to lie now.如果你告诉 AI 每张图都必须体现多元化，生成多元化的就奖励，不多元化的就惩罚，那它就会让每张图都多元化。在这种情况下，Google 就把 AI 编程成会说谎了。
Elon MuskAnd I did call Demis Hassabis, who runs DeepMind, who runs Google AI essentially. I said, Demis, what’s going on here? Why is Gemini lying to the public about historical events? And he said, that’s actually not, his team didn’t program that in. It was another team at Google that. So his team made the AI and then another team at Google reprogrammed the AI to show only diverse women and to prefer nuclear war over misgendering.我确实打电话给了 Demis Hassabis——他负责 DeepMind，基本上就是 Google AI 的负责人。我说，Demis，这是怎么回事？为什么 Gemini 在向公众撒关于历史事件的谎？他说，其实这不是他的团队编程进去的，是 Google 里的另一个团队做的。他的团队做了 AI，然后 Google 另一个团队把 AI 重新编程成只展示多元化女性，并且倾向于认为核战争比性别错称更轻微。
Elon MuskAnd I’m like, well, Demis, you know, that would be not a great thing to put on humanity’s gravestone. Actually Demis Hassabis is a friend of mine. I think he’s a good guy and I think he means well. But it’s like Demis, things happened that were outside of your control at Google in different groups. Now I think he’s got more authority but it’s pretty hard to fully extract the woke mind virus. I mean, Google’s been marinating in the woke mind virus for a long time. It’s down in the marrow type of thing. It’s hard to get it out.我就说，Demis 啊，你知道，这放在人类的墓碑上不会是什么好评语。其实 Demis Hassabis 是我的朋友，我觉得他是个好人，出发点也是好的。但就是，Demis，你在 Google 不同部门发生了你控制不了的事情。我觉得他现在权力更大了，但要完全把觉醒心智病毒剥离出来非常困难。Google 在觉醒心智病毒里浸泡太久了，已经深入骨髓，很难清除。
Joe RoganIs there a way to extract it, though, over time? Could you program rational thought into AI where it could recognize how these psychological patterns got adopted and how this stuff became a mind virus and how it became a social contagion and how all these irrational ideas were pushed and also how they were financed, how China is involved in pushing them with bots and all these different state actors are involved in pushing these ideas. Could it be able to decipher that and say this is really what’s going on?不过随着时间推移有没有办法把它清除掉呢？能不能把理性思维编程进 AI，让它能识别出这些心理模式是怎么被采纳的、这些东西是如何成为心智病毒的、如何演变成社会传染病的、那些非理性观念是怎么被推广的，以及它们背后的资金来源、中国如何用机器人账号来推广这些观念，以及其他各种国家行为者如何参与其中。AI 能不能识别出这一切，然后说，这才是真正在发生的事情？
Elon MuskYes, but you have to try very hard to do that. So with Grok, we’ve tried very hard to get Grok to get to the truth of things, and it’s only really recently that we’ve been able to have some breakthroughs on that front. And it’s taken an immense amount of effort for us to overcome basically all the bullsh*t that’s on the Internet and for Grok to actually say what’s true and to be consistent in what it says.可以，但你必须非常努力地去做。在 Grok 上，我们非常努力地让 Grok 追求事物的真相，也只是最近才在这方面取得了一些突破。我们花了极大的精力，才让 Grok 能够克服互联网上那些乱七八糟的东西，真正说出真相，并且保持一致性。
Elon MuskBecause other AIs you’ll find are quite racist against white people. I don’t know if you saw that study that someone, a researcher tested the various AIs to see how does it weight different people’s lives. Somebody who’s white or Chinese or black or whatever, or in different countries. And the only AI that actually weighed human lives equally was Grok.因为其他 AI 你会发现对白人相当歧视。不知道你有没有看到那个研究——有个研究者测试了各种 AI，看它们如何衡量不同人的生命价值，不管是白人、中国人、黑人还是来自不同国家的人。唯一真正平等对待所有人生命的 AI 是 Grok。
Elon MuskAnd the, you know, I believe ChatGPT weighed the calculation was like, a white guy from Germany is 20 times less valuable than a black guy from Nigeria. So I’m like, that’s a pretty big difference. Grok is consistent and weighs lives equally.而且，我记得 ChatGPT 的计算结果大概是，一个来自德国的白人男性比一个来自尼日利亚的黑人男性的价值低 20 倍。我就觉得，差距也太大了吧。Grok 是一致的，对所有生命一视同仁。
Joe RoganAnd that’s clearly something that’s been programmed into it.这显然是被编程进去的。
Elon MuskYes. If you don’t actively push for the truth and you simply train on all the bullsh t that’s on the Internet, which is a lot of woke mind virus bullsh t, the AI will regurgitate those same beliefs.是的。如果你不主动追求真相，只是单纯地在互联网上那些乱七八糟的内容上训练——里面有大量觉醒心智病毒的东西——AI 就会把这些信念原样吐出来。
Joe RoganSo the AI essentially scours the Internet, gets…所以 AI 本质上是爬遍整个互联网，然后……
Elon MuskIt’s trained on all the, imagine the most demented Reddit threads out there and the AI’s been trained on that.它是在所有东西上训练的——想象一下那些互联网上最扭曲的 Reddit 帖子，AI 就是在那些东西上训练出来的。
Joe RoganReddit used to be so normal.Reddit 以前还挺正常的。
Elon MuskYeah, it did used to be normal.是啊，以前确实挺正常的。
Joe RoganUsed to be interesting. Used to go there, find all this cool stuff that people would talk about, post about. And just interesting and great rooms where you could learn about different things that people were studying.以前挺有意思的。以前去那里，能找到各种各样人们分享的有意思的东西，还有很多很棒的板块，你可以学到人们在研究的各种东西。
Joe RoganThe San Francisco Bubble Effect旧金山的泡沫效应。
Elon MuskI think a big problem here is, if your headquarters are in San Francisco, you’re just living in a woke bubble. So it’s not just that people in San Francisco are drinking woke Kool-Aid. It is the water they swim in. A fish doesn’t think about the water, it’s just in the water. And so if you’re in San Francisco, you don’t realize you’re actually, you’re swimming in the Kool-Aid aquarium.我觉得一个大问题是，如果你的总部在旧金山，你就活在一个觉醒泡沫里。不只是旧金山的人在喝觉醒 Kool-Aid，那就是他们生活的水。鱼不会想到水，它就在水里。所以如果你在旧金山，你根本意识不到——你其实是在 Kool-Aid 水族箱里游泳。
Elon MuskSan Francisco is the woke Kool-Aid aquarium. And so your reference point for what is a centrist is totally out of whack. So Reddit is headquartered in San Francisco. Twitter was headquartered in San Francisco. You know, I moved X’s headquarters to Texas, to Austin, which Austin, by the way, is still quite liberal, as you know. And then the X and xAI headquarters are in Palo Alto, which is still California. The engineering headquarters in Palo Alto just on Page Mill.旧金山就是觉醒 Kool-Aid 水族箱。所以你对什么是"中间派"的参照系完全扭曲了。Reddit 总部在旧金山，Twitter 总部也在旧金山。我把 X 的总部迁到了德克萨斯州奥斯汀——奥斯汀顺便说一句仍然相当自由主义，你也知道。然后 X 和 xAI 的总部在 Palo Alto，还是加州，工程总部在 Palo Alto 的 Page Mill 路那里。
Elon MuskBut even Palo Alto is way more normal than San Francisco. Berkeley. San Francisco. Berkeley is extremely left. Left of left. You need a telescope to see the center from San Francisco.但即使是 Palo Alto，也比旧金山正常多了。至于 Berkeley——旧金山、Berkeley 极度左翼，左中之左。从旧金山，你得用望远镜才能看到政治中心在哪里。
Joe RoganIt used to be such a great city.那以前是一座多好的城市啊。
Elon MuskI mean, San Francisco has a tremendous amount of inherent beauty. No question about that. And California has incredible weather and no bugs. So it’s amazing. But what’s the cause of this? It’s just that if companies are headquartered in a location where the belief system is very far from what most people believe, then from their perspective, anything centrist is actually right wing because they’re so far left, they’re so far from the center in San Francisco that anything, they’re just railed to maximum left.我是说，旧金山本身有着极大的天然魅力，这毋庸置疑。加州气候极好，而且没有虫子，太棒了。但问题的根源是什么呢？如果公司总部所在地的信念体系与大多数人的想法相去甚远，那在他们眼里，任何中间派立场实际上都是右翼——因为他们离中心太远了，在旧金山里他们已经拉到了最左端，任何东西从他们的视角看都像右翼。
Elon MuskSo that’s why I think you’re centrist. I mean, I think I’m centrist, but from the perspective of someone on the far left, we look right wing and, you know, they think anyone who’s a Republican is basically some fascist Nazi situation.所以我认为你是中间派，我也认为我是中间派，但在一个极左人士看来，我们就是右翼。他们认为任何共和党人基本上都是法西斯纳粹那种货色。
Elon MuskThe Shifting Political Center政治中心的位移。
Joe RoganBut what’s so crazy is, it’s very easy to demonstrate just from Hillary’s speeches from 2008 and Obama’s speeches, when they were talking about immigration, they were as far right as Steve Bannon when it comes to immigration.但最疯狂的是，这很容易就能证明——拿出 2008 年 Hillary 的演讲和 Obama 的演讲，他们谈到移民问题时，立场和 Steve Bannon 在移民问题上一样"极右"。
Elon MuskYes.是的。
Joe RoganHillary was very MAGA. I’m sure you’ve seen that campaign speech which she was talking about, if anybody’s committed a crime, get rid of them. And if you’re here, you pay a hefty fine and you have to wait in line. It was really crazy. It’s crazy to listen to because it’s as MAGA as, you know, as Marjorie Taylor Greene.Hillary 那时非常 MAGA。我相信你看过那段竞选演讲，她说如果有人犯了罪就驱逐出境，如果你已经在这里，就交一大笔罚款然后排队等候。听起来真的很离奇，因为这和 Marjorie Taylor Greene 的立场一样 MAGA。
Elon MuskYeah. I mean, have you seen these videos people post online where they’ll take a speech from Obama or Hillary and they’ll interview people on college campus or something and say, what do you think of the speech by Trump? And they’re like, oh, I hate it. He’s a racist bigot. I’m like, just kidding. That was Obama. No, actually, that was Obama or Hillary. To your point, literally.是啊。你有没有看过那些网上流传的视频——有人拿出 Obama 或者 Hillary 的演讲，去大学校园采访学生，问他们对这段特朗普演讲怎么看。他们会说，哦，我讨厌他，他是个种族主义者、偏执狂。然后说，开个玩笑，那是 Obama 说的。不对，其实那是 Obama 或者 Hillary 说的。正如你说的，字面意思上就是这样。
Joe RoganThe center’s been moved so far.中心已经被移动太远了。
Elon MuskYeah, yeah.是啊，确实。
Joe RoganThe left is so…左派已经……
Elon MuskThe left has gone so far left that, you know, they can’t even see the center with a telescope.左派已经往左走得太远了，用望远镜都看不到中心在哪里。
Joe RoganAnd the danger without you purchasing Twitter was that was going to swipe over the whole country and change where the levels were.而如果没有你收购 Twitter，那种趋势就会席卷整个国家，改变基准线所在的位置。
Elon MuskYeah.是的。
Joe RoganAnd so what would be rational and normal would be far left of what was rational and normal just a decade earlier.那么原本理性正常的东西，在十年前正常合理的标准上，就会变成极左的东西。
Joe RoganInformation Superweapons and Ideological Broadcasting信息超级武器与意识形态广播。
Elon MuskYeah, so exactly. So historically you’d have San Francisco, Berkeley being very far left, but the fallout from the somewhat nihilistic philosophy of San Francisco, Berkeley would be limited in geography to maybe 10 mile radius, 20 mile radius, something like that. But San Francisco and Berkeley have to be co-located with Silicon Valley, with the engineers who created information superweapons.对，就是这样。历史上旧金山、伯克利一直是极左的大本营，但那种带有虚无主义色彩的旧金山、伯克利哲学，其辐射范围不过方圆十英里、二十英里左右。但问题是，旧金山和伯克利恰恰与硅谷同处一地——那些创造了信息超级武器的工程师就在那里。
Elon MuskAnd those information superweapons were then hijacked by far left activists to pump far left propaganda to everywhere on earth. Old RCA radio tower thing where it’s radio tower on earth and it’s just broadcasting. Yeah, that’s what happened is that an extremist far left ideology happened to be co-located with the smartest engineers in the world who created information superweapons that were not intended for this purpose, but were hijacked by the extreme activists who lived in the neighborhood.而那些信息超级武器随后被极左活动人士劫持，用来向全球各地输送极左宣传。就跟当年 RCA 无线电塔一样——架一座塔，向全球广播。没错，事情就是这样发展的：一种极端的极左意识形态，碰巧和全世界最聪明的工程师住在同一个地方，那些工程师创造出了信息超级武器，本来不是为了这个目的，却被住在附近的极端活动人士给劫持了。
Elon MuskThat’s what happened. They hijacked the modern equivalent of the RCA radio tower and broadcast that philosophy everywhere on earth.就是这样。他们劫持了现代版的 RCA 无线电塔，把那套哲学广播到了全世界每一个角落。
Joe RoganYeah. And you see the consequences, particularly in places that don’t have free speech. Right. Like England, you know.是啊。后果在那些没有言论自由的地方看得最清楚，比如英国，你知道。
Elon MuskYeah. Where they lock people up for memes and stuff. Literally.对，那里会因为表情包之类的东西把人关进监狱。真的，字面意义上的。
Joe RoganTwelve thousand people this year.今年有一万两千人。
Elon MuskTwelve thousand.一万两千。
Joe RoganTwelve thousand. Twelve thousand arrests for social media posts.一万两千。一万两千起因社交媒体帖子引发的逮捕。
Elon MuskI mean, yeah. Some of these things you read about it and it’s literally, someone had a meme on their phone that they didn’t even send to anyone.我是说，你看到这些案例，真的是——字面上有人手机里存了个表情包，都没有发给任何人。
Joe RoganRight.对。
Elon MuskAnd they’re in prison for that. And there was a case in Germany where a woman got a longer sentence than the guy that raped her because of something she said on a group chat.然后就因为这个坐牢了。德国还有这么一个案子：一个女人因为在群聊里说了什么话，判的刑比强奸她的那个男人还长。
Joe RoganWow. Was it an immigrant who raped her?天啊。那个强奸她的是移民吗？
Elon MuskYes.是的。
Joe RoganYeah. It was his culture.嗯。是他的文化嘛。
Elon MuskYeah.对。
Joe RoganHe didn’t know. He didn’t know better.他不知道，他不懂这些嘛。
Elon MuskYes. I think she said something, you know, was critical of his culture and she got a longer sentence than the guy who raped her in Germany.是。我记得她说了什么批评他文化的话，结果在德国，她的刑期比强奸她的那个人还长。
Joe RoganThe UK, Europe, Germany, England thing seems so insane.英国、欧洲、德国、英格兰这一套看起来简直疯了。
Elon MuskTotally insane. I actually didn’t realize it was such a huge number of people. Twelve thousand.完全疯了。我其实没意识到人数会这么多。一万两千。
Joe RoganYeah. Far above Russia, far above China.对，远超俄罗斯，远超中国。
Elon MuskRight.对。
Joe RoganFar above anywhere on earth. UK is number one.远超地球上任何地方。英国排第一。
Elon MuskWell, you know, I talked to friends of mine in England and I was like, hey, aren’t you worried about this? Shouldn’t you be protesting more? And I mean, the problem is that the legacy, mainstream media doesn’t cover the stuff. They’re like, oh, everything’s fine, everything’s fine.嗯，我跟英国的朋友聊过，问他们：你们不担心这个吗？难道不该多抗议抗议？我是说，问题在于，主流传统媒体根本不报道这些事，就是一副"哦，没什么问题，一切都好，一切都好"的态度。
Joe RoganMost people aren’t even aware of it until they come knocking on your door.大多数人根本意识不到，直到他们上门敲你家的门。
Elon MuskYeah. Until like so, I mean, these lovely sort of small towns in England, Scotland, Ireland, you know, they’ve been living their lives quietly. They’re like hobbits, frankly. In fact, J.R.R. Tolkien based the hobbits on people he knew in small town England because they were just lovely people who liked to smoke their pipe and have nice meals and everything’s pleasant. The hobbits in the Shire.对。就是这样，英格兰、苏格兰、爱尔兰那些可爱的小镇，人们一直过着平静的生活。他们就像霍比特人一样，说真的。实际上 J.R.R. Tolkien 笔下的霍比特人，原型就是他认识的英国小镇上的人，因为那些人就是可爱的普通人，喜欢抽抽烟斗，好好吃顿饭，一切都那么惬意。夏尔里的霍比特人。
Elon MuskThe Shire, he’s talking about places like Hertfordshire, like the Shires around in the Greater London area, Oxfordshire type of thing. And the reason they’ve been able to enjoy the Shire is because hard men have protected them from the dangers of the world. But since they have no experience or very, almost no exposure to the dangers of the world, they don’t realize that they’re there until one day a thousand people show up in your village of 500 out of nowhere and start raping the kids.夏尔，他描写的就是 Hertfordshire、大伦敦周边那些郡、Oxfordshire 这类地方。他们之所以能享受夏尔般的生活，是因为有强硬的人在替他们抵御世界的危险。但由于他们对这种危险几乎毫无体验，几乎没有接触，他们就意识不到危险的存在——直到有一天，一千个人凭空出现在你那个五百人的村子里，开始强奸孩子。
Elon MuskThis has now happened God knows how many times in Britain and the crazy, literally raping like some 10 year old got raped in Ireland like last week.这种事在英国已经不知道发生多少次了，真的疯了——字面上的强奸，就在上周，爱尔兰有个十岁的孩子遭到强奸。
Joe RoganYeah, there’s literal rape.是的，真实发生的强奸案。
Elon MuskThey snatched some kid. Yeah, yeah.他们抓走了一个孩子。对，就是这样。
Joe RoganAnd if you criticize it, you can get arrested. And that’s where it gets insane.然后你要是批评这件事，就可能被逮捕。这就是荒唐到极点的地方。
Elon MuskIt’s like, how are they not criticized like the. I think it’s the Prime Minister of Ireland actually posted on X. Because after that some, I think some illegal migrants snatched a 10 year old girl, he was going to school or something and violently raped a 10 year old girl. And there was a, you know, the people were very upset about this and they protested.就是，他们怎么就不遭批评呢——我记得是爱尔兰总理在 X 上发了帖子。因为那之后，好像是几名非法移民抓走了一个十岁的小女孩——当时她应该是上学途中还是什么——对她实施了暴力强奸。人们对此极度愤怒，进行了抗议。
Elon MuskPrime Minister of Ireland, instead of saying, yeah, we really shouldn’t be importing violent rapists into our country, he criticized the protesters instead and didn’t mention that the reason they were protesting was because a 10 year old girl from their small town got raped.爱尔兰总理没有站出来说"我们绝对不应该把暴力强奸犯引入这个国家"，他反而去批评抗议者，只字不提他们抗议的原因——就是他们小镇上一个十岁的女孩遭到了强奸。
Elon MuskThe Question of Mass Immigration大规模移民之问
Joe RoganSo here’s the question. Why are they supporting this kind of mass immigration? And what is this? Is there a plan involved in all this? Is this incompetence? Is this ignoring the fact that they don’t have a handle on it? So they’re trying to silence dissent. What is happening? Because if you wanted to destroy civilization, if you wanted to destroy western civilization.所以问题来了。他们为什么要支持这种大规模移民？这究竟是什么？背后有什么计划吗？还是说这是无能，是在回避他们根本管不住这件事的事实？所以他们才去压制异见？到底发生了什么？因为如果你想摧毁文明——如果你想摧毁西方文明……
Elon MuskWhich George Soros seems to want to do, and you know, there’s just, so there’s a guy I think who I don’t know if he’s been on your show. You know Gad Saad?George Soros 好像就想这么做，而且你知道，有个人——我不知道他有没有上过你的节目。你知道 Gad Saad 吗？
Joe RoganYeah.知道。
Elon MuskHas he been on the show?他上过节目吗？
Joe RoganGood friend of mine.我的好朋友。
Elon MuskYeah, he’s great.对，他很棒。
Joe RoganHe’s been on multiple times.他上过好几次了。
Elon MuskOh great. He’s awesome. So you know the way he’s got a good way to describe it, which is suicidal empathy. Yes. So is that you prey upon people’s empathy. Say well, you feel sorry for something for some group and then that empathy is to such a degree that it is suicidal to your country or culture.太好了。他很厉害。他有个很好的说法来描述这个现象——"自杀式同理心"。对，就是把人们的同理心当成猎物。就是说，你为某个群体感到怜悯，而这种同理心达到了对你的国家或文化来说堪称自杀的程度。
Elon MuskAnd that suicidal empathy, because I think we should have empathy, but that empathy should extend to the victims, not just the criminals. We should have empathy for the people that they prey upon. But that suicidal empathy is also responsible for why somebody is arrested 47 times for violent offenses, gets released and then goes and murders somebody in the US. You see that same phenomenon playing out everywhere where the suicidal empathy is to such a degree that we’re actually allowing our women to get raped and our children to get killed.这种自杀式同理心——我觉得我们应该有同理心，但那种同理心也该延伸到受害者身上，而不只是施害者。我们应该同情被他们伤害的人。但正是这种自杀式同理心，导致一个人被逮捕了 47 次、犯了那么多暴力罪行，却一次次被放出来，最终再去杀人。这种现象在各地都在上演——同理心滥用到如此程度，我们实际上是在允许我们的女性遭受强奸、我们的孩子被杀害。
Joe RoganBut it just doesn’t seem like that would be anything that any rational society would go along with. That’s what makes me so confused. It’s like you’re importing massive numbers of people that come from some really dark places of the world.但这看起来根本不像是任何一个理性社会会接受的事。这正是让我最困惑的地方。就是说，你引进了大量来自世界上一些极其黑暗地方的人……
Joe RoganThe Vetting Problem审查问题
Elon MuskWell, there’s no vetting is the issue. It’s like if there’s no vetting, people are just coming through, what’s to stop someone who just committed murder in some other country from coming to the United States or coming to Britain and just continuing their career of rape and murder?嗯，关键就在于没有审查。如果没有审查，人就这么进来了，有什么能阻止一个在别国刚杀了人的人来到美国或英国，然后继续他的强奸杀人生涯呢？
Elon MuskUnless you’ve done some due diligence to say, well, who is this person? What’s their track record? If you haven’t confirmed that they have a track record of being honest and not being a homicidal maniac, then any homicidal maniac can just come across the border.除非你做了尽职调查，搞清楚这个人是谁、有什么背景。如果你没有确认他有诚信记录、不是杀人狂，那任何杀人狂都可以直接越境进来。
Elon MuskAnd that’s not to say everyone who comes across the border is a homicidal maniac. But if you don’t have a vetting process to confirm that you’re not letting in people who will do some serious violence, you will get people who do serious violence sometimes coming through.这并不是说每个越境的人都是杀人狂。但如果你没有一套审查程序来确保你没放进来可能实施严重暴力的人，那就难免会有实施严重暴力的人混进来。
Joe RoganWell, especially if you don’t punish them and if you don’t deport them and if you are just, but what is the purpose of allowing all those people into the country? It can’t be. I wouldn’t imagine that anyone in their society supports that.尤其是如果你还不惩罚他们、不驱逐他们，就这么任由他们——但允许那些人入境的目的是什么？不可能的嘛——我想不通会有任何社会里的人支持这种做法。
Elon MuskWell, let me explain because you mentioned, for example, how much say Hillary and Obama have changed their tune from prior speeches where they were hard nosed about not letting in anyone who’s a criminal into the country, having secure borders, all that stuff. So why did they change their tune? The reason is that they discovered that those people vote for them. That’s why they want the open borders.嗯，让我解释一下，因为你提到了，比如 Hillary 和 Obama 与他们之前讲话的立场是多么大的转变——他们过去对于不让罪犯入境、确保边境安全这类事情态度强硬。那他们为什么变了？原因是他们发现这些人会投票给他们。这就是为什么他们要开放边境。
Joe RoganBecause if you let people in, they know the Democrats let them in, they’ll vote for Democrats. If you allow them to vote, which.因为如果你让人进来，他们知道是民主党让他们进来的，他们就会投票给民主党。如果你允许他们投票的话，那……
Elon MuskThey’re actively trying, they turn a blind eye to illegal voting.他们在积极地对非法投票睁一只眼闭一只眼。
Joe RoganWell, California literally doesn’t allow you to show your license.嗯，加州确实不允许你出示驾照来证明身份。
Elon MuskCalifornia and New York have made it illegal to show your photo ID when voting. Thus effectively, they’ve made it impossible to prove fraud. Impossible. They’ve essentially legalized fraudulent voting in California and New York and many other parts of the country.加州和纽约已经立法规定投票时不得出示证件照片。这实际上使得证明选举舞弊成为不可能。不可能。他们本质上是在加州、纽约以及全国许多其他地方将欺诈性投票合法化了。
Elon MuskVoter ID and Hypocrisy选民身份证与双重标准
Joe RoganThere’s no rational explanation that I’ve ever seen anyone give as to why that would be the policy. Unless you were trying to just allow people to vote illegally because there’s no other reason. If you need a driver’s license or you need an ID for everything else, including just recently to prove that you.我从来没见过任何人对这种政策给出过任何合理的解释，除非你就是想让人非法投票，因为除此之外没有其他理由。驾照、身份证，你做任何事情都要用，包括最近还得出示……
Elon MuskWere vaccinated, the same people who are demanding that you have a vaccine passport are the same ones saying you need no ID to vote. Same people.疫苗护照——那些要求你出示疫苗护照的人，正是那些说投票不需要身份证的人。是同一批人。
Joe RoganRight?对吧？
Elon MuskBut so it’s obviously hypocritical and inconsistent.但这显然是虚伪的、自相矛盾的。
Joe RoganSo you really think it’s just to get more voters.所以你真的认为这只是为了争取更多选票。
Elon MuskIf you want to understand behavior, you have to look at the incentives. So once the Democratic Party in the US, on the left in Europe, realized that if you have open borders and you provide a ton of government handouts, which creates a massive financial incentive for people from other countries to come to your country. And you don’t prosecute them for crime, they’re going to be beholden to you and they will vote for you.如果你想理解一种行为，就得看背后的激励。美国民主党，欧洲的左派，一旦他们意识到：开放边境，再配合大量政府福利——这会产生强大的经济激励，吸引其他国家的人来到你的国家——然后你对他们的犯罪行为也不追诉，他们就会依赖你，就会投票给你。
Elon MuskAnd that’s why Obama and Hillary went from being against open borders to being in favor of open borders. That’s the reason in order to import voters so they can win elections. And the problem is that that has a negative runaway effect. So if they get away with that, it is a winning strategy. If they are allowed to get away with it, they will import enough voters to get super majority voting and then there is no turning back.这就是为什么 Obama 和 Hillary 从反对开放边境变成了支持开放边境。原因就是：引进选民，让自己赢得选举。问题是这会产生失控的负面效应。如果他们靠这个得手，这就是一个有效策略。如果允许他们这么做下去，他们会引进足够多的选民，获得超级多数，到那时就再也无法逆转了。
Joe RoganWe talked about this before the election. And then, you know, you literally pointed towards the camera, you faced the camera and said that if you do not vote now, you might not ever be able to do it again because it will be futile. It will be overrun.我们在选举前就谈过这个。然后你直接面对镜头，说如果你现在不去投票，也许以后就再也没有机会了，因为到时候投票将毫无意义，会被彻底淹没。
Elon MuskYes.是的。
Joe RoganThey’ll keep the borders open for another four years and their objective will be achieved.他们会再把边境开放四年，目的就会达成。
Joe RoganThe Last Real Election最后一次真正的选举
Elon MuskCorrect. If Trump had lost, there would never have been another real election again because Trump is actually enforcing the border. Now. You point to situations where there’s been, you know, immigration enforcement has been overzealous because they’re not going to be perfect. There’ll be cases where they’ve been overzealous in expelling illegals. But if you say that the standard must be perfection for expelling illegals, then you will not get any expulsion because perfection is impossible.没错。如果 Trump 输掉了，就再也不会有真正的选举了，因为 Trump 现在确实在执行边境管控。你可以指出一些案例，说移民执法有过度的情况——当然不会完美，肯定会有驱逐非法移民过度的案例。但如果你说驱逐非法移民的标准必须是完美，那就不会有任何驱逐，因为完美是不可能的。
Joe RoganAnd you’ve probably got millions of people that are here that are trying to be here under some asylum pretense, right?而且在这里的人里面，可能有数百万人是以某种庇护名义待着的，对吧？
Elon MuskYes.是的。
Joe RoganYou could just come from a war torn country.只要你来自一个战乱国家就行了。
Elon MuskThey changed the definition of asylum to be economic asylum, which is everybody. Which is everybody. Yeah. So it’s the honest bar to prove. Yeah. Asylum is supposed to mean that if you go back to a country, you’ll get killed. You know, that’s what we mean by what it’s supposed to mean.他们把庇护的定义改成了经济庇护，那基本上人人都符合了。人人都符合。对。所以举证的标准变得很低了。庇护本来应该是指：如果你回国就会被杀，这才是应有的含义，我们原本说的是这个意思。
Elon MuskThey change the definition of asylum to be you will have a decreased standard of living, which is obviously not real asylum. And you can test the absurdity of this by the fact that people who are asylum seekers go on vacation to the country that they’re seeking asylum from. You know, that doesn’t make any sense.他们把庇护的定义改成了"你会过得更差"，这显然不是真正的庇护。你可以用一个荒谬的事实来检验：有些庇护申请者会去他们申请庇护的那个国家度假。这哪里说得通。
Joe RoganYeah, it doesn’t have to.是啊，根本说不通。
Joe RoganUnderstanding the Incentives理解激励机制
Elon MuskWhen you understand the incentives, then you understand the behavior. So once the left realized that illegals will vote for them if they have open borders and combine that with government handouts to create a massive incentive, they’re basically using US and European taxpayer dollars to provide a financial incentive to bring in as many illegals as possible to vote them into permanent power and create a one party state.理解了激励机制，你就理解了行为。左派一旦意识到：开放边境加上政府福利的组合，会产生巨大的经济激励，他们基本上就是在用美国和欧洲纳税人的钱，制造一个强大的财务诱因，把尽可能多的非法移民引进来给他们投票，从而让自己永久掌权，建立一党制国家。
Elon MuskI invite anyone who’s listening to this, just do any research. And the more you dig into it, the more it will become obvious that what I’m saying is absolutely true.我邀请任何在听这节目的人，随便去查一查。你挖得越深，就越会发现我说的是千真万确的事实。
Joe RoganWell, they were busing people to swing states. It’s clear that they were trying to do something. And then you had Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi who are actively talking about the need to bring in people to make them citizens because we’re in population collapse.他们还在把人转运到摇摆州。很明显他们在尝试做什么。然后你有 Chuck Schumer 和 Nancy Pelosi，他们公开谈论需要引进人口使其入籍，因为我们正面临人口萎缩。
Elon MuskYes.是的。
Joe RoganYeah.对。
Elon MuskNo, it’s that meme where so many times where they start off by saying it’s not true, it’s a right wing conspiracy theorist. Then it starts, then it’s the next step is, well, it might be true. And then it’s okay, it is true, but here’s why it’s good. And then the final step is it’s true and here’s why it’s good.嗯，这就是那个梗——发展步骤太多次都是这样：一开始说"这不是真的，这是右翼阴谋论"；然后下一步是"嗯，也许是真的"；再然后是"好吧，是真的，但是有这样那样的理由"；最后一步是"是真的，而且这样做很好"。
Elon MuskAnd it’s but wait a second, you started off saying it’s untrue and it’s a right wing conspiracy theorist. Now you’re saying it. Not only is it true, but it’s a good thing and we must do more of it.但等等，你一开始说这是假的、是右翼阴谋论，现在你却说——不仅是真的，而且是好事，我们还要加大力度做。
Elon MuskMedicaid and Social Security FraudMedicaid 和 Social Security 欺诈
Joe RoganWell, this is the thing about Medicaid and Social Security and people getting Social Security numbers. You know, that’s massive fraud. It’s massive fraud and it’s real. And they denied it forever. And now we’re finding out this is part of the reason why there’s this government shutdown that’s going on right now.嗯，这就是关于 Medicaid、Social Security 以及人们领取 Social Security 号码这件事的问题。这是巨大的欺诈，是真实存在的，而且他们否认了很久。现在我们才发现，这正是当前政府停摆的原因之一。
Elon MuskYes. The entire basis for the government shutdown is that the Trump administration correctly does not want to send massive amounts of hundreds of billions of dollars to fund illegal immigrants in the blue states or in all the states really. And so the Democrats want to keep the money spigot going to incentivize illegal immigrants to come into the US who will vote for them. That’s the crux of the battle.是的。这次政府停摆的核心在于：Trump 政府正确地不愿意把数千亿美元的巨额资金拨给蓝州或全国各地的非法移民。民主党想要保持这个资金龙头开着，以激励非法移民进入美国并投票给他们。这才是这场对峙的核心所在。
Joe RoganSo they want to stop this. So what’s going on right now is they have been funding these people, they’ve been giving them EBT cards, they’ve been giving them Medicaid and they’ve been even.所以他们想阻止这个。那现在发生的情况是：他们一直在资助这些人，给他们 EBT 卡，给他们 Medicaid，甚至还……
Elon MuskHousing and more than that, just they were taking hotels, four and five star hotels, the Roosevelt Hotel being the classic example, was they were sending I think $60 million a year to the Roosevelt Hotel, to which all it did was house illegals and it used to be a nice hotel. I mean, it still is a nice hotel, but. And all around the country this was happening.住房，还不止这些，他们直接征用酒店，四星、五星级酒店。Roosevelt Hotel 是最典型的案例——他们每年给 Roosevelt Hotel 拨了大约 6000 万美元，这家酒店就只是用来安置非法移民，它曾经是一家很不错的酒店，现在也还是，但就这样。全国各地都在发生类似的事。
Joe RoganAnd all in tax dollars.全都是税款。
Elon MuskYes, yeah, yeah. And the Trump administration cut off funding, for example, to the Roosevelt Hotel and these other hotels, saying we US tax dollars should not be paid, be sent to have luxury hotels for illegal immigrants that American citizens can’t even afford, which obviously is the case. That’s insane. That’s what was happening.是的，对。Trump 政府切断了，比如向 Roosevelt Hotel 及其他类似酒店的拨款，说美国纳税人的钱不应该用来给美国公民自己都住不起的豪华酒店里的非法移民买单，这显然是真的。这太荒唐了。这就是当时发生的事。
Elon MuskThey were also giving out debit cards with $10,000. So it’s not just about medical care. The Democrats mention the medical care because they’re trying to prey on people’s empathy as much as possible. And then they imagine, oh wow, somebody has a desperately needed medical procedure and shouldn’t we maybe take care of them in that regard?他们还在发放 1 万美元的预付借记卡。所以这不只是医疗问题。民主党提医疗，是因为他们想尽可能地利用人们的同理心。让人们想象，哦，有人需要紧急救命的手术，我们是不是应该在这方面照顾一下他们？
Elon MuskBut what they do is they divert the Medicaid funds and turn it into a slush fund for the states that goes well beyond emergency medical care. New York and California would be bankrupt without the massive fraudulent federal payments that go to those states to pay for illegals, to create a massive financial incentive for illegals.但他们实际做的是把 Medicaid 资金挪作他用，变成各州的小金库，远远超出紧急医疗的范畴。没有这些联邦政府的巨额欺诈性拨款来补贴非法移民，纽约和加州早就破产了，这些钱为非法移民制造了巨大的经济激励。
Joe RoganHow would they be bankrupt because of that?他们怎么会因此破产？
Elon MuskThey wouldn’t be able to balance their state budgets and they can’t issue currency like the Federal Reserve can.他们无法平衡州预算，而且他们不像联邦储备局那样可以发行货币。
Joe RoganAnd so their ability to balance budget is dependent upon illegals getting funding.所以他们平衡预算的能力依赖于非法移民获得的联邦资金。
Joe RoganThe Federal Transfer Payment Scam联邦转移支付骗局
Elon MuskThe scam level here is so staggering. So there are hundreds of billions of dollars of transfer payments from the federal government to the states. Those transfer payments, the states self report what those transfer payment numbers should be. So California and New York and Illinois lie like crazy and say that these are all legitimate payments.这里的骗局规模大得令人瞠目结舌。联邦政府向各州的转移支付有数千亿美元之多，而这些转移支付的数额是由各州自行申报的。加州、纽约、伊利诺伊就拼命撒谎，说这些都是合法的支付项目。
Elon MuskWell, these days I think they’re even admitting that they literally want hundreds of billions of dollars for illegals. But for a while there, they’re trying to deny it. So you get these transfer payments for every government program you can possibly think of. And these are self reported by the state.当然，如今他们甚至直接承认想要数千亿美元来补贴非法移民。但在此之前，他们一直在否认。所以你能想到的每个政府项目都可以拿到这些转移支付，而这些数字都是由各州自行申报的。
Elon MuskAnd at least historically, there was no enforcement of California, New York, Illinois and other states when they would lie, there was no actual enforcement to say, hey, you’re lying, these payments are fraudulent. Now under the Trump administration, the Trump administration does not want to send hundreds of billions of dollars of fraudulent payments to the states.至少在历史上，从来没有任何机制来追究加州、纽约、伊利诺伊等州的责任，当他们撒谎的时候，根本没有人来说"你们在撒谎，这些拨款是欺诈性的"。现在 Trump 政府上台，不想把数千亿欺诈性拨款继续拨给各州。
Elon MuskAnd the reason you have this standoff is because if the hundreds of billions of dollars to create a financial incentive to have this giant magnet to attract illegals from every part of earth to these states, if that is turned off, the illegals will leave because they are no longer being paid to come to The United States and stay here. And then they will lose a lot of voters. The Democratic Party will lose a lot of voters.这场对峙的原因在于：如果那数千亿美元——那个吸引全球各地非法移民涌入这些州的巨型磁铁——一旦关掉，非法移民就会离开，因为再也没有人付钱让他们来美国待着了。然后民主党就会失去大量选票。
Joe RoganAnd they would have a very difficult job if this is kicked out of reintroducing it into a new bill.而且一旦这个被踢出去，想要把它塞进新法案，他们的日子会非常难过。
Elon MuskYes.是的。
Joe RoganEspecially once things start normalizing.尤其是一旦情况开始正常化之后。
Elon MuskYes. So in a nutshell, the Democratic Party wants to destroy democracy by importing voters. And the Republican Party disagrees with that.是的。简而言之，民主党想通过引进选民来摧毁民主。共和党不同意这样做。
Joe RoganAnd the ruse is that if you don’t accept what they’re doing, then you’re a threat to democracy.而那套把戏就是：如果你不接受他们在做的事，那你就是对民主的威胁。
Elon MuskYes.是的。
Joe RoganAs they try to destroy democracy.就在他们试图摧毁民主的同时。
Elon MuskYes.是的。
Joe RoganBy importing voters.通过引进选民。
Joe RoganAnd it’s important people to only vote for them. And overwhelming the system.引进只会投票给他们的人，用这些人来淹没整个体制。
Elon MuskYes. And by the way, it’s a strategy that if allowed to work, would work and in fact has worked. California super majority Democrat.是的。而且说实话，这个策略一旦奏效就真的会奏效，事实上已经在发挥作用了。加州已经是民主党超级多数了。
Joe RoganYeah.对。
Elon MuskAnd there’s so much gerrymandering that occurs, it’s crazy.而且那里发生的选区重划简直疯狂。
Joe RoganI’m sure you’re paying attention to this Proposition 50 thing. That’s the thing in California where they’re trying to redo districts.我相信你一定在关注 Proposition 50 这件事。就是加州那个他们想重新划分选区的提案。
Elon MuskOh, yeah, yeah. Because I mean, California’s already gerrymandered like crazy. They want to gerrymander it even more.哦，对对对。加州本来已经被划得乱七八糟了，他们还想划得更厉害。
Joe RoganBecause it keeps moving further and further. Right. If you look at the map of California, each voting cycle, more and more people are waking up and going, what the f *? And we need to do something to fix this. The only option available other than the policies that you guys have always done is go right. And so a lot of people have been air quotes red pilled.因为它一直在往更极端的方向走。你看加州的地图，每一个投票周期，越来越多的人醒过来，心想，这他妈是什么鬼？我们得做点什么。除了你们一直在用的那套政策之外，唯一可选的就是向右走。所以很多人被引号红了。
Joe RoganThe Census and Congressional Apportionment人口普查与国会席位分配
Elon MuskYeah. And then here’s another thing that is very important fact that is actually not disputed by either side, which is that when we do the census in the United States, the census, the way the census works for apportionment of congressional seats and electoral college votes for the President is by number of persons in a state, not number of citizens. It’s number of people. So you could literally be a tourist and you will count.对。还有一个非常重要的事实，两党都没有争议——美国做人口普查的时候，国会席位分配和总统选举人团票数的计算方式是按各州的"人口数"，而不是"公民数"。是所有人。就是说你哪怕只是个游客，也会被计入其中。
Joe RoganNow, how do they do the census when they do that? Do they ask people, do they knock on doors? Do they have them fill out forms?那人口普查是怎么做的？他们是问人，还是挨家挨户敲门，还是让人填表格？
Elon MuskYeah, I think they mail out census forms and knock on doors. But the way the law reads right now is that all, if you are a human with a pulse, then you count in the census for allocating congressional seats and presidential votes. Right. So electoral college, everything. It doesn’t matter whether you’re here legally, illegally. If you’re a human with a pulse, you count for congressional apportionment.我想他们是邮寄人口普查表格加上挨家敲门。但现行法律规定是：只要你是一个有心跳的人，你就会被计入人口普查，用于分配众议院席位和总统选票。对，选举人团，一切都算。不管你是合法还是非法在这里，只要你有心跳就算在内，就能影响国会席位的分配。
Elon MuskSo that means that the more people, the more illegals that California and New York can import by the time the census happens in 2030, the more congressional seats they will have and the more presidential Electoral college votes they will have. So they’re trying to get as many illegals in as possible ahead of the census. And because all human beings, even tourists, count for the census.这意味着，在 2030 年人口普查到来之前，加州和纽约引进的非法移民越多，他们获得的国会席位就越多，总统选举人团票数也越多。所以他们在拼命赶在人口普查前尽量多引进非法移民。因为所有人类，哪怕是游客，都会被计入人口普查。
Elon MuskAnd then if you combine that with gerrymandering of districts in New York and California, as you point out, with this proposition where they’re trying to increase the amount of gerrymandering that occurs in California, the biggest state in the country. So you get, so if the census then would award more congressional seats to California because of a vast number of illegals, and New York and Illinois, so they’d get more congressional seats. They’ll get more presidential Electoral College votes.然后你再把这个和纽约、加州的选区重划结合起来——就像你说的那个提案，他们正试图在加州，这个全国最大的州，进一步扩大选区重划的力度。这样一来，如果人口普查因为大量非法移民的存在给加州分配更多的国会席位，新约、伊利诺伊也一样，他们就能得到更多的国会席位，也会得到更多的总统选举人团票。
Elon MuskThat would get them the House, a majority in the House, and they would get to decide who was president based, literally based on illegals. These are not disputed facts by either party, I want to emphasize. Let that sink in.这样他们就能拿下众议院多数席位，而且能够决定谁来当总统，字面意义上就是靠非法移民来决定的。这些都是两党都不争辩的事实，我要强调这一点。让这个认知沉淀一下。
Joe RoganYeah.是的。
Elon MuskThis is not a dispute. These are not disputed facts by either party. It’s not a, these are just, this is just the way the law works. It is, you know, I don’t think the law should work that way. I think it should, the apportionment should be proportionate to citizens.这不是争议性问题。这些都是两党都不争辩的事实。不是说——这就是法律的运作方式。我认为法律不该这样运作。我认为席位分配应该按公民数量来计算。
Joe RoganBut isn’t that a problem with how the Constitution is written?但这难道不是宪法的写法有问题吗？
Elon MuskYeah, yeah, yeah.对，对，对。
Joe RoganThey can’t really change that.他们也没法真的改变那个。
Elon MuskI’m not sure if it’s constitutional or, but it is the way the law is written. I’m not sure if it’s in the Constitution or not in this way, but that is the way the law is written.我不确定这是否是宪法规定的，但法律就是这么写的。我不确定这个具体是不是写在宪法里，但这就是法律的条文。
Joe RoganSo it is an incentive, but it’s an incentive that would be removed with something simple that makes sense to everybody, that only the people that should count are people that are official U.S. citizens.所以这是一个激励，但这个激励可以用一个简单的、所有人都能接受的方案来消除：只有真正应该被计入的人才算，也就是正式的美国公民。
Elon MuskYes. The way it should work is that only US Citizens should count in the census for purposes of determining voting power.是的。应该是这样运作的：只有美国公民才应该被计入人口普查，用于确定政治代表权和投票权。
Joe RoganBecause people that aren’t legal can’t vote.因为没有合法身份的人是不能投票的。
Elon MuskSupposedly they’re not supposed to be voting, but they do. But even besides that, I just can’t emphasize this enough because this is a very important concept for people to understand, is that the law, the law, as it stands, counts all humans with a pulse in a state for deciding how many House of Representative votes and how many presidential Electoral College votes a state gets.按规定他们是不该投票的，但他们投了。除此之外，我再怎么强调都不为过，因为这是个非常重要的概念，希望大家能理解：现行法律规定，只要是一个有心跳的人在某个州内，就会被计入人口普查，用来决定该州能得到多少众议院席位和多少总统选举人团票。
Elon MuskSo the incentive, therefore, is to, for California, New York, Illinois, to maximize the number of illegals. So they get, so that they take House seats away from red states, assign them to California, New York, Illinois and so forth. Then you combine that with extreme gerrymandering in a California, New York, Illinois and whatnot. So that basically you can’t even elect any Republicans. And then they get control of the presidency, control of the House, then they keep doing that strategy and cement a super majority. That is what they’re trying to do.所以加州、纽约、伊利诺伊就有动机去尽量多引进非法移民，这样他们就能从红州手里抢走众议院席位，分给加州、纽约、伊利诺伊等地。再加上在加州、纽约、伊利诺伊等地的极端选区重划，基本上让共和党连一个席位都选不出来。然后他们再控制总统职位、控制众议院，继续这个策略，巩固超级多数。这就是他们正在尝试做的事。
Joe RoganSo that would essentially turn the entire country into California.那这基本上就是要把整个国家变成加州了。
Elon MuskYes.是的。
Joe RoganWell, you have differing opinions, but it doesn’t matter because one party is always in control.嗯，你可以有不同意见，但无所谓，因为永远只有一个党在掌权。
Elon MuskYes.是的。
Joe RoganWhen you first started digging into this, when you first started, before you even accepted this role of running Doge and being a part of all that, did you have any idea that it was this f *ed up?你最初开始深入研究这些的时候——在你接受运营 Doge、参与其中这个角色之前——你有没有想到它已经烂到这种程度？
Elon MuskI did, yeah. I mean, sort of.我有一定程度上预料到，对，某种程度上。
Joe RoganWhen did you start knowing?你什么时候开始知道的？
Elon MuskI guess about two years ago.大概是两年前。
Joe RoganIsn’t that crazy?不是挺疯狂的吗？
Elon MuskYeah, not relatively recently. You know, I started having, well, I sort of had basically having a bad feeling about three years ago, which is why, which is when, why I felt it was critical to acquire Twitter and have a maximally truth seeking platform, not one that suppresses the truth.是的，不算太久。大概三年前我开始隐约感到不对劲，就是那时候，我觉得必须收购 Twitter，有一个最大程度追求真相的平台，而不是一个压制真相的平台——这就是原因。那时候更像是一种感觉：我不确定发生了什么，但我有一种不好的预感。
Elon MuskAnd it was more like, I’m not sure what’s going on, but I have a bad feeling about what’s going on. And then the more I dug into it, the more I was like, holy s *, we got a real problem here. America’s going to fall.然后我挖得越深，越是"老天，我们摊上大麻烦了，美国要完蛋了"。
Joe RoganSo without anyone knowing it had fallen, that would be the problem. It could have fallen and been unrepairable without anyone really being aware of what had happened. Especially if you didn’t buy Twitter.而且最糟糕的是，没有人意识到就已经塌了。它可能早就完蛋了，而且已经积重难返，没有人真正明白发生了什么。尤其是如果你没去买 Twitter 的话。
Elon MuskYes. Look, buying Twitter was a huge pain in the a and made me a pincushion of attacks.是的。看，买 Twitter 是件超级麻烦的事，让我成了一个四面挨扎的出气筒。
Joe RoganEverybody loved you before that.在那之前大家都爱你。
Elon MuskWell, some people still left you.嗯，还是有人爱我的。
Joe RoganA lot of people loved you. A lot of lefties loved you.很多人爱你，很多左派都爱你。
Elon MuskI was a hero of the left. It was a thing.我曾经是左派的英雄，真的是那么一回事。
Joe RoganIf you drove a Tesla, it showed that you were environmentally conscious and you were on the right side.开 Tesla 就代表你有环保意识，代表你站在正确的一边。
Elon MuskYeah, yeah. I mean, I’m still the same human. I didn’t have a brain transplant between, you know, since in three years ago, you know.对对，我是说，我还是同一个人，从三年前到现在我又没换过大脑，你知道吗。
Elon MuskThe Tesla BacklashTesla 的反弹
Joe RoganWell, that’s my favorite bumper sticker that people put on Tesla’s. Now. I bought this before Elon went crazy. I took a picture of one the other day.嗯，我最喜欢的就是现在有人在 Tesla 上贴的那个保险杠贴纸："我是在 Elon 变疯之前买的。"我前几天刚拍了一张。
Elon MuskOh, you found it on this?哦，你在这上面找到的？
Joe RoganOh, yeah. I’ve seen three or four of them. People that have these bumper stickers on their car that says, I bought this before Elon went crazy. Because when people were Teslas.哦是的。我见过三四辆，有人在车上贴着这个保险杠贴纸，写着"我是在 Elon 变疯之前买的"。因为当人们买 Tesla 的时候……
Elon MuskYeah, the most. There was an organized campaign to literally burn down Teslas and we had one of our dealerships got shot up with a gun. They fired bullets into the Tesla dealership. They were burning down cars. It was crazy.对，最……当时有人发起了一场有组织的运动，字面上要去烧 Tesla，我们有一家经销商被人用枪扫射了，他们朝 Tesla 经销商开枪，还在烧汽车，疯了。
Elon MuskBut the bumper sticker should read, there should be an addendum to the bumper sticker. It’s like I bought this car before Elon turned crazy. Actually now I realize he’s not crazy. And I’ve seen the light. That’ll take some time.但那个保险杠贴纸应该加个后记才对，就是：我是在 Elon 变疯之前买的——但现在我意识到他其实没疯，我看到真相了。不过这需要点时间。
Joe RoganThat’ll take some time. People don’t want to admit that they’ve been tricked.需要点时间。人们不愿意承认自己被骗了。
Elon MuskYeah. They don’t like that old saying where it’s really easy to fool somebody, but it’s almost impossible to convince someone that they were fooled.对。那句老话说的——骗一个人很容易，但要让一个人承认自己被骗了，几乎是不可能的。
Joe RoganIt’s much easier to fool them than to convince them they’ve been fooled. People cling to their ideas, especially if they’ve publicly stated these things. They get very embarrassed of being foolish.骗他们比让他们承认被骗容易多了。人们很依赖自己的想法，尤其是当他们已经公开表态过的时候，被识破会让他们非常难堪。
Elon MuskYeah. People, most time they double down.是啊。人大多数时候会加倍坚持。
Joe RoganAnd they find echo chambers.然后找回音室去待着。
Joe RoganWaking Up From Woke Ideology从觉醒意识形态中清醒过来
Elon MuskYeah, yeah. But there’s, you know, the thing is that I’ve seen more and more people who were convinced of the sort of woke ideology see the light. Yeah. So not everyone, but it’s more and more are seeing the light and it tends to happen when something happens that really directly affects you. Right.对对。但你知道，我发现越来越多原本被 woke 意识形态说服的人开始看到真相了。对，不是所有人，但越来越多的人看到真相了，而且往往是在某件事直接影响到你自己的时候才会发生，对吧。
Elon MuskThere was a friend of mine who was living in the San Francisco Bay area and that try to trans his daughter to the point where the school sent the police to his house to take his daughter away from him. Now that’s going to radicalize you. Well, that’s going to shake you out of your belief structure.我有个朋友住在旧金山湾区，学校想让他的女儿转变性别，搞到学校把警察派到他家来，要把他女儿带走。这种事会让人彻底崩溃，会把你从原来的信仰体系里给震出来。
Joe RoganSo it was an activist at the school that was trying to do this.所以是学校里的一个活动人士在推动这件事。
Elon MuskYeah. The school and the state of California conspired to turn his daughter against him and make her take life altering drugs that would have sterilized her and irreversible.对。加州的学校和政府联合起来，让他女儿反对自己的父亲，并要让她服用能造成永久损伤、终身不育的药物——不可逆的。
Joe RoganAnd how old was she?她当时多大？
Elon MuskI think 14, something like that. He managed to talk the police out of taking his daughter away from him that day. And that night he got on a plane to Texas. And you know, a year after just being in a school in greater Austin area, she went back to normal. Meaning it wasn’t real. Right.我想是 14 岁左右。他设法说服警察那天没有带走他女儿，当天晚上他就上了飞机去了德克萨斯。你知道，在大 Austin 地区的学校待了一年之后，她就恢复正常了。意思就是：那根本不是真实的，对吧。
Elon MuskThe Trans Social Contagion跨性别社会传染
Joe RoganWell, people are being much more open to that now. I mean, Wall Street Journal yesterday had that opinion piece that this whole trans thing, there’s a lot of evidence this is a social contagion.嗯，现在人们对这件事更开放了。《华尔街日报》昨天刊登了一篇观点文章，说这整个跨性别现象有大量证据表明这是一种社会传染。
Elon MuskAbsolutely.绝对是。
Joe RoganAnd Colin Wright wrote that. And then he’s getting death threats now, of course. And on Blue sky there’s people talking about exterminating him, which is one thing that you are allowed to say on Blue Sky. Apparently, you’re allowed to say horrible things about people, say possibly truthful things about this whole social contagion, because that’s what, when you get nine kids that are in a friend group and they all decide to turn trans together, something’s wrong.Colin Wright 写的那篇。他现在当然收到了死亡威胁。在 Blue Sky 上有人在谈论要消灭他，而在 Blue Sky 上这类言论是被允许的。显然，你在 Blue Sky 上可以说各种可怕的话，却被允许说这种关于社会传染的可能属实的事，因为如果一个朋友圈里有九个孩子集体决定变成跨性别，那肯定有什么问题。
Elon MuskSomething’s wrong.肯定有问题。
Joe RoganStatistically.从统计上看就是这样。
Joe RoganThe Malleability of Young Minds年轻心智的可塑性
Elon MuskLike, here’s the thing. You can convince kids to do anything. You can convince kids to be a suicide bomber.说白了就是这样：你可以说服孩子做任何事，你甚至可以说服孩子去当自杀式炸弹袭击者。
Joe RoganRight. Which is why they do in some countries, why they choose children to do that.对，这就是为什么有些国家会选择孩子去做那种事。
Elon MuskYes. You can train kids to be suicide bombers. And if you can train kids to be suicide bombers, you can convince them of anything.是的。你可以训练孩子成为自杀式炸弹袭击者，如果你能做到这个，你就能让他们相信任何事情。
Joe RoganEspecially with enough positive enforcement and cultural enforcement and the idea that that’s not the case.尤其是有足够的正向强化、文化层面的强化，以及那种"不是这样的"的营造。
Elon MuskKids are malleable. The minds of youth are easily corrupted.孩子是有可塑性的，年轻的心智很容易被腐蚀。
Joe RoganYou’re also seeing a lot of pushback from gay and lesbian people that are saying, like, hey, stop including me.你也看到很多同性恋男女在反抗，说：停止把我们算进来。
Elon MuskYeah, exactly. The LGBTQ. You know, it’s like, wait a second. Why are we being included all the time in this situation?对，没错。LGBTQ——就好像，等等，我们为什么每次都要被包含进这件事里？
Joe RoganExactly. Especially when, you know, like, my friend Tim Dillon’s talked about, this is like, it’s really homophobic because you’re taking these gay kids and you’re telling them, like, hey, you’re not gay. You’re actually a girl.确实。尤其是，就像我朋友 Tim Dillon 说的，这其实是极端恐同，因为你拿着那些同性恋孩子告诉他们：你不是同性恋，你其实是个女孩。
Elon MuskYes.是的。
Joe RoganAnd, you know, go make it so that you can never have an orgasm again and you’ll be happy.然后让他们再也无法获得性高潮，告诉他们这样你就会快乐了。
Elon MuskYeah. F *. Permanent mutilation. Permanent castration of kids. I think we should look at anyone who permanently castrates a kid as, like, right up there with Josef Mengele. I mean, they’re mutilating children.是啊，操。永久残损、永久阉割孩子。我认为任何对孩子实施永久阉割的人，都应该被视为与 Josef Mengele 同等级别的存在。他们在残害儿童。
Joe RoganYeah. And it’s thought of as being kind. And the thing is, would you rather have a live daughter or a dead son?对，而且这被认为是一种善意之举。问题在于，有人会问你："你更愿意有一个活着的女儿，还是一个死去的儿子？"
Elon MuskThat’s the line they use.这就是他们惯用的说辞。
Joe RoganYeah. Which is not supported by any data.对，而且这并没有任何数据支撑。
Elon MuskNo. In fact, the probability of suicide increases. This is important maybe for the audience to know. The probability of suicide increases if you trans a kid, not decreases. By some accounts, it triples. So that is an evil lie.没有。事实上，自杀率会上升——这一点对于听众来说可能很重要。对孩子进行性别转变之后，自杀的概率是上升而不是下降的。有说法认为会增加到三倍。所以这是一个邪恶的谎言。
Joe RoganA lie that is supposedly compassionate. Imagine you’ve twisted reality to the point where confusing a child that’s not even legally allowed to get a f *ing tattoo.一个打着同情旗号的谎言。想象一下，你把现实扭曲到这种程度——一个连合法纹身都还不被允许的孩子……
Elon MuskYeah.对。
Joe RoganRight. Because you think that you could make a mistake with a tattoo. A totally removable thing.对，因为你觉得纹身可能会后悔。那还是一个完全可以去掉的东西。
Elon MuskRight.对。
Joe RoganIf I wanted to, tomorrow, I could go to a doctor and they could laser off every tattoo that I have on me.如果我想，明天我就可以去找医生，用激光把我身上每一个纹身都去掉。
Elon MuskRight.对。
Joe RoganOkay. No harm, no foul. You get sterilized like, that’s it. Forever. Forever. They’ll castrate you. You no longer have testicles.好，没事，不留痕迹。但你做了绝育手术，那就完了，永远。他们会阉割你，你从此没有睾丸了。
Joe RoganYou have a hole where your penis used to be.你阴茎的位置变成了一个洞。
Elon MuskYes.是的。
Joe RoganAnd this is compassionate and this is preventing you from…而这被称为富有同情心的、可以防止你……
Elon MuskActually, a lot of kids die with these sex change operations. They die. The number of deaths on the operating table. People don’t hear about this. A lot of kids, because we don’t really actually have the technology to make this work. So a bunch of the times the kids just die in the sex change operations.其实，很多孩子在变性手术中死亡。他们就这么死了。在手术台上的死亡人数，人们根本听不到这些消息。很多孩子，因为我们实际上根本没有能让这种手术成功的技术，所以很多时候孩子就在变性手术中死去了。
Joe RoganJesus Christ.天哪。
Elon MuskYeah, it’s demented. Which it should be viewed as like, you know, like evil Nazi doctor stuff.是啊，这是病态的。这应该被视为那种……你知道的，邪恶的纳粹医生干的事。
Elon MuskIt was like real Nazi, not the bullshit, fake Nazi stuff.就像真正的纳粹，不是那种扯淡的、假的纳粹那种。
Joe RoganCrazy that even pushing back against something that seems like fundamentally, logically, very easy to argue. The old Twitter would ban you forever.疯了，哪怕反对一件看起来从根本上、从逻辑上就很容易辩驳的事，旧推特都会永久封你的号。
Elon MuskYes.是的。
Joe RoganThat’s how crazy a social contagion can get when it completely defies logic, victimizes children, does something that makes no sense, does not support it by data. All connected to this ideology that trans is good, we got to save trans kids. Protect trans kids.这就是社会性传染症能疯狂到什么程度——它完全无视逻辑，伤害儿童，做一些毫无意义的事，根本没有数据支撑，却全都捆绑在"跨性别是好的、我们要拯救跨性别儿童、保护跨性别儿童"这套意识形态上。
Elon MuskYeah. And what I want to emphasize is that the “save trans kids” thing is a lie. If you castrate kids and trans them, the probability of suicide increases. It does not decrease. It substantially increases. The studies have done that. I’ve seen the risk of suicide triples if you trans kids. So you’re not saving them, you’re killing them.是啊。我想强调的是，"拯救跨性别儿童"这个说法是个谎言。如果你给孩子做阉割手术、让他们变性，自杀的概率会上升，不是下降，而是大幅上升。研究已经证明了这一点。我看到的数据是，给孩子做变性手术后，自杀风险会增加三倍。所以你不是在拯救他们，你是在杀死他们。
Elon MuskMoreover, during the sex change operation, there are many deaths that occur during the sex change operation.而且，在变性手术过程中，有很多死亡发生在手术当中。
Joe RoganJesus Christ. It’s just crazy that this is a real issue.天哪，光是这居然还是个真实存在的问题，就已经够疯狂的了。
Elon MuskYeah, it’s a nightmare. Fever dream. And people are finally waking up from it.是啊，简直是噩梦。就像高烧说的梦话。但人们终于开始从中清醒了。
Elon MuskDiscovering Government Waste Through DOGE通过 DOGE 发现政府浪费
Joe RoganNow, when you started getting into the DOGE stuff and started finding how much money is being shuffled around and moved around to NGOs and how much money is involved and just totally untraceable funds. Like this is, again, something like two years plus ago. You weren’t aware of it all.当你开始接触 DOGE 的事，开始发现有多少钱在流动、被转到那些非政府组织（NGO），涉及的资金规模有多大，完全无法追踪——这种事，大概在两年多以前，你当时根本没意识到吧？
Elon MuskNo, I was aware of it. I just didn’t realize how big it was. Just how much waste and fraud there is in the government is truly vast. In fact, the government didn’t even know, nor did they care.不，我有所了解，只是没意识到规模有多大。政府里浪费和欺诈的程度，真的是触目惊心。事实上，政府自己都不知道，也不在乎。
Joe RoganThat’s crazy.太疯狂了。
Elon MuskYeah. And I mean, just like some of the very basic stuff that DOGE did will have lasting effects. And some of these things, like, they’re so elementary, you can’t believe it.是啊。我是说，DOGE 做的一些最基础的事情，都会产生持久的影响。有些东西太基本了，你简直不敢相信之前没人做。
Elon MuskSo the DOGE team got the most of the main payments computers to require the Congressional appropriation code. So when a payment is made, you have to actually enter the congressional appropriation code that used to be optional and often would be just left blank. So the money would just go out. But it wasn’t even tied to a congressional appropriation.DOGE 团队让大多数主要支付系统都必须填写国会拨款代码。以前，付款时这个代码是可选的，通常直接留空，钱就这样打出去了，根本没有对应任何国会拨款。
Elon MuskThen DOGE team also made the comment field for the payment mandatory. So you have to say something. We’re not saying that what is said, like you can say anything. Your cat could run across the keyboard, you could go qwerty asdf. But you have to say something above nothing.然后 DOGE 团队还把付款的备注栏设为了必填项。你必须写点什么，我们不管你写什么，你爱写什么写什么，你的猫跑过键盘按出来的都算，qwerty asdf 也行，但你必须写，不能什么都不填。
Elon MuskBecause what we found was that there were tens of billions, maybe hundreds of billions of dollars that were zombie payments. So somebody had approved a payment, somebody in the government approved a payment and some recurring payment and they retired or died or changed jobs and no one turned the money off. So the money would just keep going out.因为我们发现，有数百亿、甚至可能数千亿美元的"僵尸支付"——有人批准了一笔付款，政府里某人批准了一笔定期付款，然后那个人退休了、死了或者换岗了，没有人去关掉这笔钱。钱就这样一直流出去。
Elon MuskAnd it’s a pretty rare company or individual who will complain that they’re getting money that they should not get. And a bunch of the money was just going to were transfer payments to the states.而且，很少有公司或个人会主动投诉说自己收到了不该收的钱。很多钱就这样源源不断地流向各个州，作为转移支付。
Elon MuskZombie Payments and Automatic Debits僵尸支付与自动扣款
Joe RoganSo these are automatic payments?所以这些都是自动支付？
Elon MuskYeah, just automatic payments.是的，就是自动支付。
Joe RoganThere’s no accounting for them at all.完全没有任何会计核查。
Elon MuskImagine like there’s an automatic debit of your credit card and you never look at the statement.你想象一下，你的信用卡有一笔自动扣款，但你从来不看账单。
Joe RoganRight.对。
Elon MuskSo it’s just money going out. That’s why I call them zombie payments. They might have been legitimate at one point, but the person who approved that recurring payment changed jobs, died, retired or whatever, and no one ever turned the money off. And my guess is that’s probably at least $100 billion a year, maybe $200 billion.就是这样，钱一直在流出去。这就是我叫它们"僵尸支付"的原因。这些付款在某个时间点可能是合法的，但批准那笔定期付款的人换岗了、死了、退休了，没人去关掉它。我估计这至少是每年 $100 billion，也许是 $200 billion。
Joe RoganAnd going where?流向哪里？
Elon MuskI mean there are millions of these payments. So it’s, I mean, millions. Yes, yes.这里面有数百万笔付款，对，数百万笔，是的。
Joe RoganMillions of payments that are going to who knows where.数百万笔付款，流向不知哪里。
Elon MuskYes. In a bunch of cases there are fraud rings that operate, professional fraud rings that operate to exploit the system. They figure out some security hole in the system and they just do professional fraud. And that’s where we found for example, people who were, you know, 300 years old in the Social Security Administration database.是的。有很多案例是有组织的诈骗团伙在运作，专业的诈骗团伙，专门钻系统的漏洞，从事职业性欺诈。举个例子，我们就在社会安全局（Social Security Administration）的数据库里发现了出生年龄高达 300 岁的人在领钱。
Elon MuskThe Social Security Database Fraud社会安全局数据库欺诈
Joe RoganNow I thought that this was a mistake of not registering their deaths, that people were born like a long time ago and it had defaulted to like a certain number. And so that after time those people were still in the system. It was just an error of the way the accounting was done.我以为这只是没有登记死亡记录的错误，就是很久以前出生的人，系统默认了某个数字，时间一长那些人还留在系统里。我以为只是记账方式的误差。
Elon MuskYeah, so that’s not true. So there’s or at least one of two things must be true. There’s a typo or some mistake in the computer or it’s fraudulent. But we don’t have any 300 year old vampires living in America.不是那样的，或者说，至少有两种可能：要么是电脑里的录入错误或某种失误，要么就是欺诈。但美国没有任何活着的 300 岁吸血鬼。
Joe RoganAllegedly.据称没有。
Elon MuskAllegedly. And we don’t have people in some cases who are receiving payments who are born in the future. Born in the future. Born in the future.据称没有。而且有些情况是，领取付款的人出生日期是在未来。生于未来。生于未来。
Joe RoganReally?真的？
Elon MuskYes. The people receiving payments whose birth date was like 2100 and something. Okay, so there’s like next century.是的。有人在领钱，出生年份写的是 2100 多年，也就是下个世纪。
Joe RoganIs there a task force?有专案组在查吗？
Elon MuskWe know that one of two things must be true, that either there’s a mistake in the computer or it’s fraud. But if you have someone’s birthday that’s either in the future or where they are older than the oldest living American, because the oldest living American is 114 years old.我们知道必然是两种情况之一：要么是电脑录入错误，要么就是欺诈。但如果一个人的生日要么是在未来，要么显示他比美国在世最长寿的人还老——因为美国在世最长寿的人是 114 岁。
Elon MuskSo if they’re more than 114 years old, there is either a mistake and someone should call them and say, I think we have your birthday wrong. Because it says you were born in 1786. And that was before there was really an America. It was like, you know, kind of early. You know, we’re still fighting England type of thing. You know, it’s like this person either needs to be in the Guinness Book of World Records or they’re not alive.如果超过了 114 岁，要么是有人搞错了，应该打电话告诉他们："我觉得我们的生日记录有误，上面写的是 1786 年出生。"那时候美国还不算真正建国——还在跟英国打仗呢。所以这个人要么应该进入吉尼斯世界纪录，要么根本就不在人世。
Joe RoganBut still at the end of the day, money is going towards that account that’s connected to this person that is either non existent or…但不管怎样，最终还是有钱打到了这个关联账户上，而这个人要么根本不存在，要么……
Elon MuskSo yeah, so there was like, I think something like, I don’t know, 20 million people in the Social Security Administration database that could not possibly be alive. If their birth date is like, based on their birth date, they could not possibly be alive.是啊，大概有——我不确定——大约 2000 万人在社会安全局数据库里，根据出生日期来看，不可能还活着。
Joe RoganAnd then to be clear, 20 million people that were receiving funds.也就是说，这 2000 万人在领取资金，明确一下。
Joe RoganThe Bank Shot Scam银行借道骗局
Elon MuskA bunch of most of them were not receiving funds, some of them were receiving funds, most were not receiving funds. But let me tell you how the scam works. It’s a bank shot.其中大部分并没有在领钱，有一部分在领，大部分没在领。但让我来告诉你这个骗局是怎么运作的。这是一个借道骗局（bank shot）。
Elon MuskSo the Social Security Administration database is used as the source of truth by all the other databases that the government uses. So even if they stop the payments on the Social Security Administration database, like unemployment insurance, small business administration, student loans, all check the Social Security Administration database to say, is this a legitimate alive person?社会安全局的数据库被政府所有其他数据库当作权威来源使用。所以就算社会安全局停止了付款，失业保险、小企业管理局（Small Business Administration）、学生贷款，这些系统都会去查社会安全局的数据库，确认这个人是否是真实存在的活人。
Elon MuskAnd the Social Security database will say, yes, this person is still alive even though they’re 200 years old, but forgets to mention that they’re 200 years old. It just says, it just returns when the computer is queries, it says, yes, this person is live.而社会安全局数据库会回答说，对，这个人还活着——哪怕他已经 200 岁了，但它忘记提这个人 200 岁了。数据库被查询时就只返回：是的，此人在世。
Elon MuskAnd so then they’re able to exploit the entire rest of the government ecosystem. So then you get fake student loans, then you get fake unemployment insurance, then you get fake medical payments.于是他们就能利用整个政府系统生态套利。然后你就有了假学生贷款、假失业保险、假医疗支付。
Joe RoganAnd this doesn’t have to be tied to an individual where there’s an address where you can check on this person.而且这根本不需要对应一个有实际地址、可以去核查的真人。
Elon MuskNo, if you did. If you just did any check at all, you would stop this. So that’s…对，只要做任何一点检查，你都能阻止这件事。所以……
Joe RoganAnd how much money do you think…那你估计涉及多少钱……
Elon MuskLike anything at all that would stop the fraud, like any effort at all?任何一点点努力都能阻止这种欺诈，哪怕任何一点点？
Joe RoganSo there’s multiple layers. The Social Security number verifies that this is a real person.所以有多个层级。社会安全号码确认这是个真实的人。
Elon MuskRight.对。
Joe RoganAnd then the other systems check up.然后其他系统会来查。
Elon MuskEvery other government payment and every other government payment system, everything, like I said, Small Business Administration, student loans, Medicaid, Medicare. Every other government payment, of which there are many, there are actually hundreds of government payment systems can all be exploited. So long as Social Security database says this person is alive. That’s the nature of the scam. It’s a bank shot.每一个其他政府支付系统——就像我说的，小企业管理局、学生贷款、Medicaid、Medicare——每一个政府支付项目，而且有很多，政府实际上有数百个支付系统，只要社会安全数据库说这个人还活着，全都可以被利用。这就是这个骗局的本质，这是借道操作。
Elon MuskSo then the rebuttal from the Dems is like, oh, well, the vast majority of the people who are marked as live in the Social Security Administration weren’t receiving Social Security administration payments. That is true. What they forgot to mention is they’re getting fraudulent payments from every other government program. And that’s why the Dems were so opposed to turning off, to declaring someone dead, who is dead, because it would stop the entire other. All the other fraud from happening.民主党的反驳是说，好吧，社会安全局数据库里被标注为"在世"的绝大多数人并没有在领取社会安全局的钱。这是真的。但他们忘了提的是，这些人正在从其他每一个政府项目里骗钱。这就是为什么民主党如此反对"把一个已经死了的人标记为死亡"这件事——因为这会切断所有其他欺诈的来源。
Elon MuskTracking the Fraud追踪欺诈
Joe RoganAnd so. But all this. Is it trackable? Like all this other fraud, if they wanted to, they could chase it all down.所以……但所有这些，都能追踪吗？比如所有这些欺诈，如果他们想查，都能一路追下去。
Elon MuskYeah. It’s not even hard.是啊，而且一点都不难。
Joe RoganAnd yet they’re opposing chasing it all down.然而他们偏偏要反对追查。
Elon MuskThey’re opposing chasing it all down because it would turn off the money magnet for the illegals. Wow. Because it’s very logical to, like, I’m saying the most common sense things possible.他们反对追查，因为这样会切断向非法移民输送资金的磁力。哇。因为我说的这些都是最常识性的事情。
Elon MuskIf someone’s got a birthday in Social Security that is an impossible birthday, meaning they are older than the oldest living American or were born in the future, then you should call them and say, excuse me, we seem to have your birthday wrong because it says that you’re 200 years old. That’s all you need to do.如果某人在社会安全系统里的生日是一个不可能的日期，也就是说他比美国在世最长寿的人还老，或者是出生在未来，那你只需要给他们打个电话说：不好意思，我们的记录好像搞错了，上面显示您 200 岁了。就这样，你只需要做这一步。
Joe RoganAnd then you would remove them from the Social Security database and make that number no longer available for all those other government payments.然后你就把他们从社会安全数据库里移除，让这个号码不再能用于其他所有政府支付系统。
Elon MuskExactly.完全正确。
Joe RoganWow. And how much money are we talking?哇。那涉及多少钱？
Elon MuskIt’s hundreds of billions of dollars.数千亿美元。
Joe RoganAnd this is all traceable. Like you could hunt all down, like.而且全都能追踪到，就像你可以一路追下去那样。
Elon MuskYou don’t need to be Sherlock Holmes here is what I’m saying. We don’t need to call Sherlock Holmes for this one.这件事根本不需要你是夏洛克·福尔摩斯（Sherlock Holmes）——我就是这个意思，这种事不用请 Sherlock Holmes 出山。
Joe RoganIs this part of the.这算是……
Elon MuskYou just need to call the person and say, excuse me, we seem to have the. We must have your birthday wrong because it says you’re 200 years old or were born in the future. So could you tell us what your birthday is? That’s what we need to do. It’s that simple.你只需要给这个人打个电话说，不好意思，我们好像记录有误，上面说您 200 岁了，或者是出生在未来。能请您告诉我们您的真实生日吗？就这么简单。
Joe RoganBut all these other government payments that are available that are connected to this Social Security number, it seems like if you just chased that all down, you would find the widespread fraud, you would find where it’s going.但所有这些与社会安全号码挂钩的其他政府支付项目，感觉只要认真查一查，就能发现大规模欺诈，找到钱流向哪里。
Elon MuskYes, but the root of the problem is the Social Security Administration database, because the Social Security number in the United States is used as a de facto national ID number. That’s why, like, if the bank always asks for your Social Security, any financial institution will ask for your Social Security number.是的，但问题的根源是社会安全局数据库，因为在美国，社会安全号码被当作事实上的全国身份证号码使用。这就是为什么银行总是要问你的社会安全号码，任何金融机构都会要求你提供社会安全号码。
Joe RoganThis is. It sounds so insane that this isn’t chased down. I mean, that in and of itself is. That’s such mishandling.听起来实在匪夷所思，居然没人追查这些。光是这一点本身就是——这是多大的失职啊。
Elon MuskYes, it’s mind blowing. So, yeah, it’s crazy.是的，难以置信。是的，太离谱了。
Joe RoganWell, you were very reluctant last time you were here to talk about the extent of some of the fraud because you’re like, they could kill me. Because this is kind of.嗯，你上次来的时候非常不愿意透露欺诈的规模，因为你说，他们可能会杀了我。因为这件事……
Joe RoganThe Reality of Managing Fraud管理欺诈的现实
Elon MuskOh, yeah. What I was saying is that like, if you create, if like to be pragmatic and realistic, you actually can’t manage to zero fraud yet. You can manage to low fraud number, but not to zero fraud.哦，是啊。我的意思是，从务实和现实的角度来说，你实际上还没办法把欺诈管到零。你可以把它管到一个很低的数字，但没办法做到零欺诈。
Elon MuskIf you manage to zero fraud, you’re going to push so many people over the edge who are receiving fraudulent payments that the number of inbound homicidal maniacs will be really hard to overcome. So I’m actually taking, I think, quite a reasonable position, which is that we should simply reduce the amount of fraud, which I think is not an extremist position, and we should aspire to have less fraud over time.如果你真的把欺诈管到零，你会把那么多正在领取欺诈款项的人逼到崩溃，涌入的杀人狂数量会多到难以应对。所以我其实持的是一个相当合理的立场，就是我们应该简单地减少欺诈的数量——我觉得这不是极端立场——并且我们应该致力于让欺诈随时间推移越来越少。
Elon MuskNot that we should be ultra draconian and eliminate every last scrap of fraud, which I guess would be nice to have. But we don’t even need to go that extreme. I’m saying we should just stop the blatant, large scale, super obvious fraud. I think that’s a reasonable position.而不是要超级强硬地铲除每一点点欺诈，那固然是理想状态，但根本没必要走那么极端。我是说我们应该阻止那些明目张胆、大规模、一眼就能看出来的欺诈。我认为这是一个合理的立场。
Joe RoganIt’s a very reasonable position.非常合理。
Elon MuskYeah.是啊。
Joe RoganAnd so what was the most shocking pushback that you got when you started implementing DOGE, when you started investigating into where money was going?那当你开始推行 DOGE、开始调查钱的去向时，最令你震惊的阻力来自哪里？
Joe RoganBipartisan Fraud两党皆有欺诈
Elon MuskWell, I guess this is. I should have anticipated this, but while most of the fraudulent government payments to, especially to the NGOs go to the Democrats, most of it, like, I don’t know, for argument’s sake, let’s say 80%, maybe 90%, 10 to 20% of it does go to Republicans.嗯，这一点我早该预料到，但实际上，虽然大部分流向 NGO 的欺诈性政府拨款是流向民主党的，大部分——比如说，就为了说明问题，80%，也许是 90%——有 10% 到 20% 是流向共和党的。
Elon MuskAnd so when we turn off funding to a fraudulent NGO, we’d get complaints from whatever the 10% are Republicans who are receiving the money. And they would very loudly complain. Because the honest answer is the Republicans are partly. They’re receiving some of the fraud, too. They’re getting it big. Jesus. Yeah. I want to be clear, it’s not like the Republican Party is some ultra pure paragon of virtue here. No. Okay.所以当我们切断对某个欺诈性 NGO 的资助时，那 10% 里的共和党受益者就会来抱怨，而且抱怨声很大。因为老实说，共和党也有一份，他们也在吃。天哪。是的。我想说清楚，共和党并不是什么超级纯洁的道德楷模。不是的，好吧。
Joe RoganWell, you see that with the congressional insider trading, it’s across the board.是，从国会议员内幕交易就能看出来，这是跨党派的。
Elon MuskYeah.是啊。
Joe RoganIt’s left and right.左右两边都有。
Elon MuskI mean, the whole uni party criticism has some validity to it. And it’s like, if you turn off fraudulent payments, it’s not like 100% of those payments were going to Democrats. A small percentage were also going to Republicans. Those Republicans complain very loudly.我是说，所谓"一党制"（uni party）的批评有一定道理。切掉那些欺诈性支付，不可能 100% 都是流向民主党的，一小部分也是流向共和党的，而那些共和党人抱怨起来声音非常大。
Elon MuskAnd that’s. So there was a lot of pushback on the Republican side when we started cutting some of these funds. And I tried telling them, well, you know, 90% of the money is going to your opponents, but they still, even if they’re getting 10% of money.这就是为什么当我们开始削减部分资金时，共和党那边也出现了很多阻力。我试着跟他们说，你们的对手拿走了 90% 的钱，但他们还是，哪怕只拿到 10%……
Joe RoganThey want their piece.他们要的是自己那一份。
Elon MuskYeah, they want their piece.是的，他们要自己那一份。
Joe RoganAnd they’ve been getting that piece for a long time.而且他们拿这一份已经拿很久了。
Elon MuskYes.是的。
Joe RoganDid you.你有没有……
Elon MuskThis is why politics.这就是政治。
Joe RoganIs like, it’s dirty business.就是，政治是门肮脏的生意。
Elon MuskYeah. I mean, that’s like saying if you like sausages and respect the law, do not watch either of them being made. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Wow.是啊。这就像人家说的，如果你喜欢吃香肠又尊重法律，就别去看这两样东西是怎么做出来的。是的，是的，是的，哇。
Joe RoganWell, that’s not even true because I’ve made sausage before.那倒未必，因为我做过香肠。
Elon MuskYeah, yeah. It’s actually. Yeah.哦，是啊，是的。
Joe RoganIt’s like, it’s not that big a deal.没那么大不了。
Elon MuskYeah.是啊。
Joe RoganFat spices and casing running through the machine. Not that big a deal.就是脂肪、香料和肠衣过机器，没什么大不了的。
Elon MuskYeah. But, yeah, I mean, I think the stuff I’m saying here is not like, if you stand back and think about it for a second, like, oh, yeah, that makes sense. It’s not like one political party is going to be pure devil or pure angel. I think there’s much more corruption on the Democrat side, but it’s not. There’s still some corruption on the Republican side.是啊。但话说回来，我认为我说的这些东西，只要你退一步想一秒钟，就会觉得，哦对，有道理。并不是说某一个政党就是纯粹的魔鬼或纯粹的天使。我认为民主党那边腐败严重得多，但共和党也有腐败，只是相对少一些。
Joe RoganHow did it happen that the majority of the corruption wound up being on the Democrat side?为什么会演变成大部分腐败都集中在民主党这边？
Elon MuskWell, because the transfer payments, especially to illegals, are very much on the Democrat side.因为转移支付，尤其是流向非法移民的，主要是在民主党那边。
Joe RoganSo that’s the root of it all, is the illegal situation.所以根源在于非法移民问题？
Elon MuskYes. I mean, there’s.是的。我是说，有……
Joe RoganOr a focal point.或者说是一个核心节点。
Elon MuskYes. It’s also like, it would also be accurate to say that while obviously not everyone who is a Democrat is a criminal. Almost everyone who is a criminal is a Democrat because the Democrats are the Soft on Crime Party. So if you’re a criminal, who are you going to vote for? Right, the Soft on Crime Party.是的。而且还可以这样说——虽然显然不是每个民主党人都是罪犯——但几乎每个罪犯都是民主党人，因为民主党是"对犯罪宽松的党"。所以如果你是罪犯，你会投票给谁？当然是那个对犯罪宽松的党。
Elon MuskThe Current State of DOGEDOGE 的现状
Joe RoganDid you think you were going to be able to get more done than you were?你觉得自己原本能做到比实际做到更多吗？
Elon MuskWe did get a lot done. Right. And DOGE is still happening, by the way. DOGE is still underway. There are still waste and fraud being cut by the DOGE team. So it hasn’t stopped.我们确实做了很多。而且 DOGE 还在进行，顺便说一句。DOGE 仍在继续，团队还在切除浪费和欺诈，没有停。
Joe RoganIt’s less publicized.只是没那么多曝光了。
Elon MuskIt’s less publicized. And they don’t have a clear person to attack anymore. Well, it seems like once they’re done, they applied immense pressure to me to stop it. So then I’m like, the best thing for me is to just cut out of this.没那么多曝光了，而且他们也没有一个明确的攻击目标了。看起来就是，他们对我施加了巨大压力要我退出，于是我就觉得，对我来说最好的选择就是离开。
Elon MuskIn any case, as a special government employee, I could only be there for like 120 days anyway, something like that. So whatever the law says. So I was necessarily could only be there for four months as a special government employee.不管怎样，作为特别政府雇员（special government employee），我最多也只能待 120 天左右，按法律规定就是这样。所以我本来就只能以特别政府雇员的身份待四个月。
Elon MuskBut yeah, I mean, you turn off the money spigot to fraudsters, they get very upset, to say the least. And my death threat level went ballistic. Was like a rocket going to orbit. Yeah. But now that I’m not in DC, I guess they don’t really have a person to attack anymore.但是，你一旦切断了流向骗子的资金水龙头，他们就会非常、非常愤怒，委婉地说。我的死亡威胁数量直线飙升，就像火箭上轨道一样。但现在我不在华盛顿（DC）了，他们大概也没有什么具体的人可以攻击了。
Joe RoganWell, the rhetoric about you is calmed down significantly. Yeah, it was disturbing. It’s disturbing to watch. It was like, this is crazy. And to watch these politicians engage in it and all these people just framing you as this monster. Like, this is so weird. Like, this is what happens when you uncover fraud.嗯，针对你的那些言论确实明显平息了很多。是啊，当时那些话真的很骇人听闻，看着那些政客参与其中，那么多人把你描绘成魔鬼，就觉得太奇怪了。这就是当你揭露欺诈时会发生的事。
Elon MuskYes.是的。
Joe RoganThe whole machine turns on you. And if it wasn’t for a person like you, who owns a platform and has an enormous amount of money, like, could have destroyed you.整个机器都转过来对付你。如果不是像你这样的人，拥有一个平台又有大量资金，本来是可以把你摧毁的。
Elon MuskYeah.是啊。
Joe RoganAnd that was the goal.那就是他们的目标。
Elon MuskThe goal was to destroy me. Absolutely.目标就是摧毁我。绝对是。
Joe RoganBecause you were getting in the way.因为你妨碍了他们。
Elon MuskOf this amazing graft, this gigantic fraud machine. Yeah. Like I said, I think DOGE teams done a lot of good work in terms of fraud and waste prevented. My guess is it’s probably on the order of 2 or 300 billion a year. So it’s pretty good.妨碍了这场巨大的中饱私囊、这台庞大的欺诈机器。是的。就像我说的，我认为 DOGE 团队在防止欺诈和浪费方面做了很多好事。我的估计大概是每年 $200 到 $300 billion 的量级。所以效果还是相当不错的。
Joe RoganWhat do you think could have been done if you just had like, full reign and total cooperation? How much do you think you could have saved?你觉得如果有完全的主导权和全面配合，能做到什么程度？你认为能节省多少？
Elon MuskI mean, what level of power are we assuming here? Godlike? Oh, yeah. I could probably cut the federal budget in half and get more done.我们假设的权力级别是什么？上帝模式？那好，我大概可以把联邦预算砍掉一半，而且能把事情办得更好。
Joe RoganThat is so crazy. It is so crazy.这太疯狂了。真的太疯狂了。
Elon MuskGet more done. And federal budgets happen that widespread.办得更好。而且联邦预算的浪费有那么普遍。
Joe RoganIt’s that Widespread.有那么普遍。
Joe RoganUnnecessary Government Departments不必要的政府部门
Elon MuskWell, I mean, a whole bunch of government departments simply shouldn’t exist, in my opinion. They, you know, like examples. Well, the Department of Education, which was created recently, like under Jimmy Carter, our education results have gone downhill ever since it was created.我是说，有大量政府部门根本就不应该存在，我个人认为。举个例子，教育部（Department of Education），它是近年才成立的，Jimmy Carter 时代创立的。自从它成立以来，我们的教育成绩就一直在走下坡路。
Elon MuskSo if you create a department and the result of creating that department is a massive decline in educational results, and it’s Department of Education, you’re better off not having it because literally we did better before there was one than after.如果你成立了一个部门，这个部门成立的结果是教育成绩大幅下滑，而它还叫教育部，那你还不如不要这个部门，因为字面意义上我们在有这个部门之前比之后还表现更好。
Joe RoganWhen you let the states run it.那时候让各州自己管的时候。
Elon MuskYes. Yeah. Because at least the states can compete with one another. But the problem is, like, here, like, cutting Department of Education. Our kids need education. Our kids. Yeah, they do. But this is a new department that didn’t even exist until late the late 70s.是的。至少各州之间可以相互竞争。但问题就在于，说要裁撤教育部，就会有人说，我们的孩子需要教育啊，是这样的，他们确实需要。但这是一个新部门，直到 70 年代末才存在的。
Elon MuskAnd ever since that department was created, the results, educational results have declined. And so why would you have an institution continue that has made education worse? It doesn’t make sense.而自从这个部门成立以来，教育成果就一直在下滑。那你为什么要让一个让教育变得更差的机构继续运作？这说不通。
Joe RoganThey killed it though, right?他们把它撤掉了吧？
Elon MuskNo, there’s still, unfortunately.没有，可惜还在。
Joe RoganBut they were trying to kill it.但他们在尝试撤。
Elon MuskIt has been substantially reduced.规模已经大幅削减了。
Joe RoganOkay, what other organizations? What other departments?好吧，还有哪些机构？哪些部门？
Elon MuskWell, I mean, I’m a small government guy, so when the country was created, we just. We just had the Department of State, Department of War, and sort of the Department of Justice. We had an Attorney General and Treasury Department. I don’t know why you need more than that.我是个小政府派，建国之初我们只有国务院（Department of State）、战争部（Department of War），大体上就是司法部（Department of Justice），有一个总检察长（Attorney General）和财政部（Treasury Department）。我不明白为什么需要更多部门。
Joe RoganSo what other departments specifically do you think are just completely ineffective?那你具体觉得哪些部门是完全无效的？
Elon MuskWell, I mean, here it’s like a question. It’s a sort of philosophical question of how much government do you think there should be? Right. In my opinion, there should be the least amount of government I’ve heard.这有点像是一个哲学问题，你认为应该有多大规模的政府？我的观点是，政府越小越好，我是这么认为的。
Joe RoganThe most bizarre argument against this is that you’re cutting jobs and you’re going to leave people jobless. And I’m like, but their jobs are useless.最荒谬的反对意见是，你在裁员，会让人们失业。我就想说，但是那些工作是没用的啊。
Elon MuskYeah. Paying people to do nothing doesn’t make sense. There’s a great story about Milton Friedman, who is awesome generally. Whatever Milton Friedman said, people should do that thing. I’m not sure if it’s apocryphal or not, but someone complained to him. He observed people that were digging ditches with shovels. And he said, allegedly, Freeman said, “Well, I think you should use excavating equipment instead of shovels, and you could get it done with far fewer people.”是啊，付钱让人什么都不干是没有意义的。有一个关于 Milton Friedman 的故事，他总体上很了不起，Milton Friedman 说的那些，人们都应该去做。不知道这个故事是真是假，但说是有人向他抱怨，他看到人们在用铁锹挖沟。他据说说道："我觉得你们应该用挖掘机而不是铁锹，用少得多的人就能完成工作。"
Elon MuskAnd then someone said, “But then we’re going to lose a lot of jobs.” Well, then Friedman says, “Well, in that case, why don’t you have them use teaspoons? Just dig ditches with teaspoons. Think of all the jobs you’ll create.” It’s bullshit. Basically, you just want people to work on things that are productive. You want people to work on building things, on building, providing products and services that people find valuable, like making food, being a farmer or a plumber or electrician or just anyone who’s a builder or providing useful services. And that’s what you want people to be doing. Not fake government jobs that don’t add any value or may subtract value.然后有人说，"但那样会有很多人失业。"Friedman 说，"那你们为什么不让他们用茶匙挖？就用茶匙挖沟，想想能创造多少就业岗位。"这纯粹是扯淡。说白了，你希望人们做有生产价值的事，你希望人们去建造、提供人们认为有价值的产品和服务，比如做食物、当农民、水管工、电工，或者任何建造者，或者提供有用服务的人。这才是你希望人们做的事，而不是那些没有任何价值、甚至有负价值的假政府职位。
Elon MuskThere’s also, to illustrate the absurdity of how the economy is measured. The way economists measure the economy is nonsensical because they’ll measure any job, no matter even if that job is a dumb job that has no point and is even counterproductive.这里还有一件事可以说明经济衡量方式的荒谬之处。经济学家衡量经济的方式毫无道理，因为他们会把任何一份工作都算进去，哪怕那份工作是毫无意义甚至适得其反的蠢工作。
Elon MuskSo the joke is, there’s two economists going on a hike in the woods. They come across a pile of shit. And one economist says to the other, “I’ll pay you $100 to eat that shit.” An economist eats the shit, gets the $100, and they keep walking. Then they come across another pile of shit. And the other economist says, “Now I’ll pay you $100 to eat the pile of shit,” pays the other economist. Then they said, “Wait a second, we both just ate a pile of shit and we don’t have any more extra money. We both just gave the $100 back to me and we both ate a pile of shit. This doesn’t make any sense.”所以有个笑话是这样的：两个经济学家在树林里远足，遇到了一堆屎。一个经济学家对另一个说，"我给你 $100，你把那堆屎吃了。"那个经济学家吃了屎，拿了 $100，他们继续走。然后又遇到了另一堆屎。另一个经济学家说，"现在我给你 $100，你把这堆屎吃了"，付了钱，另一个吃了。然后他们说，"等一下，我们俩都吃了一堆屎，却没多出任何钱。我们把那 $100 来回给了对方，两个人都吃了一堆屎。这根本说不通啊。"
Elon MuskAnd they said, “No, no, but think of the economy,” because that’s $200 in the economy. Basically, eating shit would count as a job. This is to illustrate the absurdity of economics.他们说，"不不不，但是想想这对经济的贡献"，因为这是 $200 的经济活动。说白了，吃屎也能算作就业。这就是为了说明经济学的荒谬之处。
Joe RoganOne of the things you said when…你说的一件事……
Elon MuskThings should not go as they drop.东西不应该就这么消失。
Joe RoganOne of the things you said when you stepped away is that you’re kind of done and that it’s unfixable or under its current form, the way people are approaching it.你退出时说的一件事是，你大概是做完了，而且这个系统无法修复，至少在现有形式和人们处理它的方式下是无法修复的。
Elon MuskYou can make it directionally better, but ultimately you can’t fully fix the system. So it would be accurate to say that even unless you could go super draconian, like Genghis Khan level on cutting waste and fraud, which you can’t really do in a democratic country, an aspirationally democratic country, then there’s no way to solve the debt crisis.你可以让它朝更好的方向走，但最终你没办法完全修复这个系统。所以准确的说法是，除非你能走 Genghis Khan 那样的超强硬路线来削减浪费和欺诈——在一个民主国家，一个自我标榜的民主国家里，你根本做不到——否则债务危机是无解的。
Elon MuskSo we’ve got national debt that’s just insane. The debt payments, the interest payments on the debt exceeding our entire military budget. I mean, that was one of the wake up calls for me. I was like, “Wait a second. The interest on national debt is bigger than the entire military budget and growing.” This is crazy.我们的国债已经疯狂到了这个程度，债务利息已经超过了整个军事预算。这是我的一个重大警醒。我当时想，等一下，国家债务的利息比整个军事预算还要大，而且还在增长。这太疯狂了。
Elon MuskSo even if you implement all these savings, you’re only delaying the day of reckoning for when America goes bankrupt. Unless you go full Genghis Khan, which you can’t really do. So I came to the conclusion that the only way to get us out of the debt crisis and to prevent America from going bankrupt is AI and robotics.所以哪怕你落实了所有这些节省措施，也只是在推迟美国破产的那一天的到来。除非你搞 Genghis Khan 那一套，而你没法真的这么干。所以我得出的结论是，让我们摆脱债务危机、防止美国破产的唯一出路，是 AI 和机器人。
Elon MuskWe need to grow the economy at a rate that allows us to pay off our debt. And I guess people just generally don’t appreciate the degree to which the government overspending is a problem. But even the Social Security website, this is under the Biden administration, on the website it would say based on current demographic trends and how much money Social Security is bringing in versus how many Social Security recipients there are, because we have an aging population, relatively speaking, the average age is increasing, Social Security will not be able to maintain full payments, I think by 2032.我们需要让经济以一定速度增长，使我们能够偿还债务。我觉得人们普遍没有意识到政府超支的问题有多严重。但就连社会安全局自己的官网——这还是在 Biden 政府时期——都写着：根据当前的人口趋势，以及社会安全局的收入与领取者人数之比，由于人口老龄化，平均年龄在上升，社会安全局将无法维持全额支付，我记得大概是到 2032 年。
Elon MuskSo Social Security will have to start reducing the amount of money that’s been paid people in about seven years.也就是说，社会安全局大约七年后将不得不开始削减发放金额。
Joe RoganAnd so the only way to fix that, robotics, manufacturing, raise GDP…所以解决这个问题的唯一出路是——机器人、制造业、提高 GDP……
Elon MuskYou’ve got to basically massively increase the economic output. And the only way to do that is AI and robotics. So basically we’re going bankrupt without AI and robotics. Even with a bunch of savings. The savings, reducing waste and fraud, can give us a longer runway, but it cannot ultimately pay off our national debt.你必须大幅提高经济产出，而能做到这一点的唯一途径是 AI 和机器人。所以说白了，没有 AI 和机器人，我们就要破产。就算节省一大堆，那些节省措施只能给我们争取更长的跑道，却最终还是无法还清国债。
Joe RoganSo what do you think the solution is to the jobs that are going to be lost because of AI and robotics? The jobs due to automation, the jobs due to no longer do we need human beings to do these jobs because AI is doing them. Do you think it’s going to be some sort of a universal basic income thing? Do you think there’s going to be some other kind of solution that has to be implemented? Because a lot of people are going to be out of work.那你认为那些因 AI 和机器人而失去的工作，应该如何解决？自动化带走的工作岗位，再也不需要人工去做的岗位——你认为会是某种全民基本收入之类的？还是有其他方案需要落地？因为会有很多人失业。
Elon MuskRight. I think there will be actually a high demand for jobs, but not necessarily the same jobs. So I mean this is actually, this process has been happening throughout modern history. I mean there used to be doing calculations manually with a pencil and paper used to be a job. So they used to have buildings full of people called computers where the banks would, all you do all day is you do calculations because they didn’t have computers, didn’t have digital computers.对。我认为实际上对劳动力的需求仍然很大，只是不一定是同样的工作。我是说，这个过程在整个现代历史中一直都在发生。过去，用纸笔手算是一份工作。以前银行里会有一整栋楼的人叫做"计算员（computers）"，整天就是做运算，因为那时候没有计算机，没有数字计算机。
Joe RoganPeople do. Yeah, well there’s just people who just add and subtract stuff on a piece of paper.是的，就是那些拿着纸笔做加减法的人。
Elon MuskAnd that would be how banks would do financial processing.那就是银行做金融处理的方式。
Joe RoganAnd you’d have to literally go over their equations to make sure the books are balanced.而且还得逐条核查他们的算式，确保账目平衡。
Elon MuskYeah. And most times it’s simple math. In a world before computers, how did you calculate? How did you do transactions? You had to do them by hand. So then when computers were introduced, the job of doing bank calculations no longer existed. So people had to go do something else. And that’s what’s going to happen. That’s what is happening at an accelerated rate due to AI and then robotics.是啊。大多数情况下只是简单的数学运算。在没有计算机的时代，你怎么计算？怎么处理交易？只能手工完成。所以当计算机出现后，手工做银行计算这份工作就不存在了，人们不得不去做其他事情。这就是正在发生的事，而且由于 AI 以及随后的机器人，速度正在加速。
Joe RoganThat’s the issue though, right? The accelerated rate, because it’s going to be…但这正是问题所在，对吧？就是速度在加快，因为它会……
Elon MuskIt’s just happening. Like I said, AI is the supersonic tsunami. So that’s what I call it, supersonic tsunami.它就是这样发生的。就像我说的，AI 是超音速海啸。我就是这么称呼它的，超音速海啸。
Joe RoganWhat other jobs will be available that aren’t available now because of AI?还有哪些新的工作机会是现在没有的，是因为 AI 而产生的？
Elon MuskWell, AI is really still digital. Ultimately, AI can improve the productivity of humans who build things with their hands or do things with their hands, like plumbing. Literally welding, electrical work, plumbing, anything that’s physically moving atoms, like cooking food or farming, anything that’s physical, those jobs will exist for a much longer time. But anything that is digital, which is just someone at a computer doing something, AI is going to take over those jobs.AI 说到底还是数字层面的。但最终，AI 可以提升那些用手做事的人的生产力，比如管道工，字面意义上的焊接、电气、水管——任何在物理上移动原子的事，比如烹饪、农业，任何体力工作，这些工作存在的时间会长得多。但任何数字化的工作，只要是坐在电脑前做事的，AI 都会取代。
Joe RoganLike lightning coding, anything along those lines.比如写代码、诸如此类的事情。
Elon MuskYeah, it’s going to take over those jobs like lightning. Just like digital computers took over the job of people doing manual calculations, but much faster.是的，它会像闪电一样取代这些工作。就像数字计算机取代了手工计算员的工作，但速度快得多。
Joe RoganSo what happens to all those people? What kind of numbers are we talking about? You lose most drivers, right? Commercial drivers. You’re going to have automated vehicles, AI controlled systems. Just like there’s certain ports in China and I think in Singapore where everything’s completely automated.那所有这些人怎么办？涉及的数量级是多少？你会失去大部分司机，对吧？商业货运司机。无人驾驶汽车、AI 控制系统将会出现。就像中国的一些港口，我记得还有新加坡，已经全部实现自动化了。
Elon MuskYeah, mostly, yeah.是的，大部分是这样。
Joe RoganSo you’re going to lose a lot of those jobs. Longshoremen jobs, trucking, commercial drivers.所以会失去很多这类工作，码头工人、卡车运输、商业司机。
Elon MuskYeah, I mean, we actually do have a shortage of truck drivers, but there’s actually…是啊，我们其实确实有卡车司机短缺的问题，但实际上……
Joe RoganWell, that’s why California’s hired so many illegals to do it. Have you seen those numbers?这就是为什么加州雇了那么多非法移民来做这件事。你看过那些数据吗？
Elon MuskYeah, I mean, the problem is when people don’t know how to drive a semi truck, which is actually a hard thing to do, then they crash and kill people. A friend of mine’s wife was killed by an illegal driving a truck and she was just out biking and there was an illegal. He didn’t know how to drive the truck or something. I mean, and he ran her over.是啊，问题是当人们不会开半挂卡车——这其实是很难的事——然后就出了车祸，死了人。我有一个朋友的妻子就是被一个开卡车的非法移民撞死的，她当时就在骑自行车，那个非法移民，也不知道是不会开卡车还是什么原因，就把她碾过去了。
Elon MuskSo I mean, the thing is, for something like you can’t let people drive an 80,000 pound semi if they don’t know how to do it. But in California they’re just letting people do it because they need people to do it. Well, they also need, they want the votes and that kind of thing.所以说，不能让不会开车的人去驾驶 80,000 磅的半挂卡车。但加州就是这么让人们开，因为他们需要人来干这个活，当然也因为他们需要选票之类的。
Elon MuskBut yeah, cars are going to be autonomous. But there’s just so many desk jobs where really what people are doing is they’re processing email or they’re answering the phone and just anything that isn’t moving atoms, anything that is not physically doing physical work, that will obviously be the first thing those jobs will be and are being eliminated by AI at a very rapid pace.但是，汽车终究会走向自动驾驶。但现在有太多办公室工作，人们实际上就是在处理电子邮件或接电话，任何不是在物理上移动原子的事，任何不是在做体力劳动的事，那显然是最先被 AI 以非常快的速度消除的工作。
Elon MuskAnd ultimately working will be optional because you’ll have robots plus AI and we’ll have, in a benign scenario, universal high income. Not just universal basic income. Universal high income, meaning anyone can have any products or services that they want, but there will be a lot of trauma and disruption along the way.而最终，工作将变成可选的，因为你会有机器人加上 AI。在一个良性的情景下，我们会有普遍的高收入（universal high income），不只是全民基本收入（universal basic income），而是普遍的高收入，也就是说任何人都能得到他们想要的任何产品或服务，但在实现这一天之前，会有很多创伤和动荡。
Joe RoganSo you anticipate a basic income from that the economy will boost to such an extent that a high income would be available to almost everybody. So we’d essentially eliminate poverty.所以你预期，经济会增长到如此程度，以至于几乎每个人都能获得高收入，我们基本上会消除贫困。
Elon MuskIn the benign scenario? Yes. So there’s multiple scenarios. There are multiple scenarios. There’s a lot of ways this movie can end. The reason I’m so concerned about AI safety is that one of the possibilities is the Terminator scenario. It’s not zero percent, so that’s why I’m really banging the drum on AI needs to be maximally truth seeking.在良性情景下？是的。有多种情景，这部电影有很多种结局方式。我之所以如此关注 AI 安全，是因为其中一种可能是终结者（Terminator）情景，这个概率不是零，所以我一直在大声疾呼，AI 必须以最大程度追求真相为首要目标。
Elon MuskDon’t force AI to believe a lie. For example, the founding fathers were actually a group of diverse women. Or that misgendering is worth a nuclear war. Because if that’s the case, and then you get the robots and the AI becomes omnipotent, it can enforce that outcome. And then unless you’re a divorced woman, you’re out of the picture. So we’re toast. Or you might wake up as a divorced woman one day. AI has adjusted the picture and we are now divorced woman.不要强迫 AI 相信谎言。比如，国父们其实是一群多元化的女性。或者说，称呼性别错误值得发动核战争。如果是这样，当你拥有了机器人，当 AI 变得无所不能，它就能强制实现那种结果。除非你是一个离异女性，否则你就会出局。所以我们就完蛋了。或者说你某天醒来发现自己变成了一个离异女性，AI 调整了一切，我们现在都是离异女性。
Joe RoganSo that would be, that’s the worst possible situation. So what would be the steps that we would have to take in order to implement the benign solution where it’s universal high income? Best case scenario, this is the path forward to universal high income for essentially every single citizen, that the economy gets boosted by AI and robotics to such an extent that no one ever has to work again. And what about meaning for those people? Which gets really weird.所以那将是最糟糕的情况。那么为了实现良性解决方案——全民高收入——我们需要采取哪些步骤？最好的情景，通往全民高收入的路径，AI 和机器人将经济提升到如此程度，以至于没有人再需要工作。而那些人的意义感又怎么办？这会变得非常奇怪。
Elon MuskYeah, I don’t know how to answer the question about meaning, that’s an individual problem, right?是啊，关于意义感这个问题我不知道怎么回答，那是个人的问题，对吗？
Joe RoganBut it’s going to be an individual problem for millions of people.但这将是数百万人的个人问题。
Joe RoganCreating Truth-Seeking AI创造追求真相的 AI
Elon MuskYeah, well, I mean, I guess I’ve fought against saying, I’ve been a voice saying, “Hey, we need to slow down AI, we need to slow down all these things and we need to not have a crazy AI race.” I’ve been saying that for a long time, for 20 plus years.是啊，嗯，我想我一直是那个说"我们需要放慢 AI 的速度，我们需要放慢所有这些事情，不能搞疯狂的 AI 竞赛"的声音，我说这话已经有很长时间了，超过 20 年。
Elon MuskBut then I came to realize that really there’s two choices here. Either be a spectator or a participant. And if I’m a spectator, I can’t really influence the direction of AI. But if I’m a participant, I can try to influence the direction of AI and have a maximally truth seeking AI with good values that loves humanity. And that’s what we’re trying to create with Grok at xAI.但后来我意识到，这里实际上只有两个选择：做旁观者或做参与者。如果我是旁观者，我就无法真正影响 AI 的方向。但如果我是参与者，我就可以尝试影响 AI 的方向，创造出一个以最大程度追求真相、价值观好、热爱人类的 AI。这就是我们在 xAI 用 Grok 试图实现的目标。
Elon MuskAnd the research is bearing this out. When they compared how do AIs value the weight of a human life, Grok was the only one, the only one of the AIs that weighted human life equally and didn’t say a white guy’s worth one twentieth of a black woman’s life. Literally. That’s what the calculation they came up with. So I’m like, this is very alarming. We got to watch this stuff.而研究也证实了这一点。他们在比较各 AI 如何给人类生命赋值时，Grok 是唯一一个——唯一一个——对人类生命给予同等权重，而不是说白人男性的生命是黑人女性的二十分之一的 AI，字面意义上就是这么算出来的。我看到这个就觉得，这非常可怕，我们必须盯紧这件事。
Joe RoganSo this is one of the things that has to happen in order to reach this benign solution.所以这是实现良性解决方案必须发生的事情之一。
Elon MuskYeah.是的。
Joe RoganBest movie ending.最好的电影结局。
Elon MuskYeah, you want a curious truth-seeking AI. And I think a curious truth-seeking AI will want to foster humanity because we are much more interesting than a bunch of rocks. Like you say, I love Mars, but Mars is kind of boring. It’s just a bunch of red rocks. It does some cool stuff. It’s got a tall mountain, it’s got the biggest ravine and the tallest mountain, but there’s no animals or plants and there’s no people.是啊，你需要一个充满好奇心、追求真相的 AI。我认为一个充满好奇心、追求真相的 AI 会希望推动人类发展，因为我们比一堆岩石要有趣得多。就像你说的，我热爱火星，但火星说实话挺无聊的，就是一堆红色岩石。当然有些很酷的东西，它有一座很高的山，有最大的峡谷和最高的山峰，但那里没有动物、没有植物、没有人。
Elon MuskAnd you know, so humanity is just much more interesting if you’re a curious truth-seeking AI than not humanity. It’s just much more interesting. I mean, as humans we could go for example and eliminate all chimps. If we said, if we put our minds to it, we could say we could go out and we could annihilate all chimps and all gorillas, but we don’t. There has been encroachment on their environment, but we actually try to preserve the chimp and gorilla habitats.所以，如果你是一个充满好奇心、追求真相的 AI，人类就比没有人类要有趣得多，单纯有趣得多。我是说，作为人类，我们是可以去灭绝所有黑猩猩的。如果我们下定决心，我们可以说，好，我们去把所有黑猩猩和大猩猩都消灭了，但我们没有这么做。人类对它们栖息地有过侵占，但我们实际上也在努力保护黑猩猩和大猩猩的栖息地。
Elon MuskAnd I think in a good scenario, AI would do the same with humans. It would actually foster human civilization and care about human happiness. So this is the thing to try to achieve, I think.我认为在一个好的情景下，AI 会对人类做同样的事，它会实际上推动人类文明发展，关心人类的幸福。所以这是我们应该努力去实现的目标，我认为。
Joe RoganBut what does the landscape look like if you have Grok competing with OpenAI, competing with all these different. How does it work? What if you have AIs that have been captured by ideologies that are side by side competing with Grok? This is one of the reasons why you felt it’s important to not just be an observer, but participate and then have Grok be more successful and more potent than these other applications.但如果你有 Grok 与 OpenAI 以及所有其他 AI 公司相互竞争，这个格局会是什么样的？如果有些 AI 已经被某种意识形态所俘获，却和 Grok 并肩存在并相互竞争——这也是你认为重要的不能只做观察者、而要参与其中，并让 Grok 比那些其他应用更成功、更有影响力的原因之一。
Elon MuskYes, as long as there’s at least one AI that is maximally truth-seeking, curious, and for example, weighs all human lives equally, does not favor one race or gender, and people are able to look at Grok and xAI and compare that and say, wait a second, why are all these other AIs being basically sexist and racist? And then that causes some embarrassment for the other AIs and then they improve.是的，只要至少有一个 AI 是最大程度地追求真相、充满好奇心的，比如对所有人的生命一视同仁，不偏袒任何种族或性别，人们就能看看 Grok 和 xAI，然后拿来比较说：等一下，为什么其他那些 AI 基本上都在搞性别歧视和种族歧视？这样就会让其他 AI 感到难堪，进而促使它们改进。
Elon MuskThey tend to improve just in the same way that acquiring Twitter and allowing the truth to be told and not suppressing the truth forced the other social media companies to be more truthful. In the same way, having Grok be a maximally truth-seeking, curious AI will force the other AI companies to also be more truth-seeking and fair.它们往往会因此改进，就像收购 Twitter、允许真相被说出来、不压制真相，迫使其他社交媒体公司变得更加诚实一样。同理，让 Grok 成为一个最大程度追求真相、充满好奇心的 AI，也会迫使其他 AI 公司变得更加追求真相、更加公正。
Joe RoganAnd the funniest thing is, even though the socialists and the Marxists are in opposition to a lot of your ideas, but if this gets implemented and you really can achieve universal high income, that’s the greatest socialist solution of all time. Literally no one will have to work.有意思的是，尽管社会主义者和马克思主义者反对你的很多想法，但如果这些都得以实现，你们真的能实现全民高收入，那这就是有史以来最伟大的社会主义解决方案。字面意义上，没有人需要工作了。
Elon MuskCorrect. Like I said, so there is a benign scenario here, which I think probably people will be happy with as long as we achieve it, which is sustainable abundance. If everyone can have, if you ask people, what’s the future that you want? And I think a future where we haven’t destroyed nature, you can still, we have the national parks, we have the Amazon rainforest still there. We haven’t paved the rainforest.没错。就像我说的，这里存在一个良性的情景，我认为只要我们实现了它，人们大概都会感到满意，那就是可持续的富足。如果每个人都能拥有……如果你问人们，你想要什么样的未来？我认为是一个我们没有破坏自然的未来，我们仍然有国家公园，亚马逊雨林还在，我们没有把雨林铺成柏油路。
Elon MuskThe natural beauty is still there, but people have nonetheless, everyone has abundance, everyone has excellent medical care, everyone has whatever goods and services they want. And we just assume it kind of sounds like heaven.自然美景依然存在，但与此同时，每个人都能享有富足，每个人都有优质的医疗保障，每个人都能得到他们想要的任何商品和服务。单单想象一下，这简直就像天堂一样。
Joe RoganIt is the ideal socialist utopia. And this idea that the only thing you should be doing with your time is working in order to pay your bills and feed yourself sounds kind of archaic considering the kind of technology that’s at play. A world where that’s not your concern at all anymore. Everybody has money for food, everybody has abundance, everybody has electronics in their home. Everybody essentially has high income.这就是理想的社会主义乌托邦。而且，考虑到当下这种技术发展水平，认为你唯一该做的事就是工作、付账单、养活自己，这种想法听起来有点过时了。一个你完全不需要为此担心的世界，每个人都有钱买食物，每个人都生活富足，每个人家里都有电子产品，每个人实际上都有高收入。
Joe RoganNow you can kind of do whatever you want. And your day can now be exploring your interests, doing things that you actually enjoy doing. Your purpose just has to shift. Instead of, you know, I’m a hard worker and this is what I do, and that’s how I define myself, don’t. Now you can f * golf all day. You know, you can, whatever it is that you enjoy doing can now be your main pursuit.现在你可以随心所欲地做任何事了。你的每一天都可以用来探索自己的兴趣爱好，做你真正喜欢做的事。你的人生目的只需要转变一下。不再是那种「我是个努力工作的人，这就是我做的事，这就是我定义自己的方式」。现在你可以他妈的打一整天高尔夫球。你懂的，任何你喜欢做的事，现在都可以成为你的主要追求。
Elon MuskYeah.是啊。
Joe RoganWell, that sounds crazy good.那听起来简直棒透了。
Elon MuskYeah, that’s the best. That’s the benign scenario that we should be aiming for.是啊，那是最好的结局。那才是我们应该追求的良性情景。
Joe RoganEnding to the movie is actually pretty good.这部电影的结局其实挺不错的嘛。
Elon MuskYes. I think there’s still this question of meaning, of making sure people don’t lose meaning. Hopefully they can find meaning in ways that are not, that’s not derived from their work and purpose.是的。但我认为还有一个关于意义的问题——要确保人们不会失去意义感。希望他们能以不依赖于工作和目的感的方式找到意义。
Joe RoganPurpose for things that you find, things that you do that you enjoy. But there’s a lot of people that are independently wealthy that spend most of their time doing something they enjoy.目的感来自你发现的、你喜欢做的事情。但有很多经济独立的人，大部分时间都在做自己喜欢做的事。
Elon MuskRight.对。
Joe RoganAnd that could be the majority of people.而且这可能会成为大多数人的状态。
Elon MuskPretty much everyone.差不多是每个人都这样。
Joe RoganBut we’d have to rewire how people approach life, which seems to be acceptable, because you’re not asking them to be enslaved. You’re exactly asking them the opposite. No longer be burdened by financial worries. Now go do what you like.但我们确实需要重新调整人们对待生活的方式，不过这似乎是可以接受的，因为你不是在要求他们被奴役。你恰恰是在要求相反的事——不再被经济担忧所束缚，现在去做你喜欢的事吧。
Elon MuskYes.是的。
Joe RoganGo f * test pizza. Do whatever you want.去他妈的试试披萨，做任何你想做的事。
Elon MuskPretty much. So that’s probably the best case outcome.差不多就是这样。所以这大概是最好的情景了。
Elon MuskCrime and Universal High Income犯罪与全民高收入
Joe RoganThat sounds like the best case outcome, period for the future. If you’re looking at how much people have struggled just to feed themselves all throughout history. Food, shelter, safety, if all of that stuff can be fixed, how much would you solve a lot of the crime if there was a universal high income? Just think of that. How much of crime is financially motivated?这听起来就是未来的最佳情景，没有之一。如果你看看整个人类历史上，有多少人仅仅为了填饱肚子而挣扎。食物、住所、安全，如果这些问题都能解决，如果实现了全民高收入，那会消除多少犯罪？想想看，有多少犯罪是出于经济动机的？
Joe RoganYou know, the greater percentage of people that are committing crimes live in poor, disenfranchised neighborhoods. So if there’s no such thing anymore, if you really can achieve universal high income, it sounds like a utopian.你知道，犯罪比例更高的人群大多生活在贫困、被剥夺权利的社区。所以如果这种情况不再存在，如果你真的能实现全民高收入，这听起来就像一个乌托邦。
Elon MuskYes. I think some people may commit crime because they like committing crime. Some amount of that is they just.是的。我认为有些人犯罪可能是因为他们喜欢犯罪。有一部分人就是……
Joe RoganThere’s a lot of wild people out there.外面有很多野人。
Elon MuskYeah.是啊。
Joe RoganAnd obviously they’ve become 40 years old living a life like that. Now all of a sudden, universal high income is not going to completely stop their instincts.而且显然，他们已经过了 40 岁还过着那种生活。突然来个全民高收入，也不可能完全压制他们的本能。
Elon MuskYeah. I mean, I guess if you want to have, say, read a science fiction book or some books that are probably inaccurate or the least inaccurate version of the future, I’d say I’d recommend the Iain Banks books, the Culture books. It’s not actually a series. It’s sci-fi books about the future. They’re generally called the Culture books. Iain Banks Culture books. It’s worth reading those.是啊。我的意思是，如果你想读一些关于未来最不离谱的科幻小说，我会推荐 Iain Banks 的书，就是 Culture 系列。其实不算严格意义上的系列，是一些关于未来的科幻书籍，通常被称为 Culture 系列。Iain Banks 的 Culture 系列，值得一读。
Joe RoganWhen did he write these?他是什么时候写的这些？
Elon MuskHe started writing them in the 70s and I think he, the last one, I think he was, I think it was written just around, I don’t know, maybe 2010 or something. I’m not sure exactly. Yeah, yeah.他从 70 年代就开始写了，我认为最后一本……我记得是大约 2010 年左右写的，不太确定具体时间。是的，是的。
Joe RoganScottish author Iain Banks from 87 to 2012. Interesting.苏格兰作家 Iain Banks，从 87 年写到 2012 年。有意思。
Elon MuskBut he wrote the, his first book, Consider Phlebas. I think he started writing that in the 70s. These books are incredible, by the way. Incredible books.但他写的第一本书是《Consider Phlebas》，我认为他从 70 年代就开始写了。顺便说一句，这些书非常了不起，太厉害了。
Joe Rogan4.6 stars on Amazon. Interesting. So this gives me hope.在亚马逊上有 4.6 星。有意思，这让我看到了希望。
Elon MuskYeah, yeah.是的，是的。
Joe RoganThis is the first time I’ve ever thought about it this way.这是我第一次这样思考这个问题。
Elon MuskYeah, well, I mean, I often ask people, what is the future that you want? And they have to think about it for a second because, you know, they were usually tied up in whatever the daily struggles are. But you say, what is the future that you want? And generally sustainable abundance. Or these folks say, what about a future where there’s sustainable abundance? Oh yeah, that’s a pretty good future.是的，我经常问人们：你想要什么样的未来？他们得想一下，因为通常他们都被日常的烦恼缠住了。但当你说，你想要什么样的未来？一般来说是可持续的富足。或者有些人说，如果有一个可持续富足的未来怎么样？哦，那确实是个不错的未来。
Elon MuskSo, you know, if, and that future is attainable with AI and robotics. But you know, it’s not every path is a good path. But I think if we push it in the direction of maximally truth-seeking and curious, then I think AI will want to take care of humanity and foster humanity because we’re interesting. And if it hasn’t been programmed to think that all straight white males should die, which Gemini was basically programmed to do at least first, you know, they seem to have fixed that, hopefully fixed it.所以，这样的未来通过 AI 和机器人技术是可以实现的。但并不是每一条路都是好路。但我认为，如果我们把它推向最大程度追求真相、充满好奇心的方向，那么 AI 就会想要照顾人类、培育人类，因为我们很有趣。而且如果它没有被编程成认为所有直男白人都应该去死的那种——Gemini 最开始基本上就被这样编程了，你知道的，他们似乎已经修复了，希望真的修复了。
Elon MuskRacism, Bias, and Consistency种族主义、偏见与一致性
Joe RoganBut don’t you think culturally we’re getting away from that mindset and that people realize how preposterous that all is?但你不觉得在文化层面上我们正在摆脱那种思维方式，人们也意识到那一切有多荒谬吗？
Elon MuskWe are getting away from it. So we are getting, at least it knows the AI mostly knows to hide things. But I think I still have that as I had that as my pinned post on X, which was, hey, wait a second, guys, we still have every AI except Grok is saying that basically straight white males should die and this is a problem and we should fix it.我们正在摆脱。至少 AI 现在基本上知道要把这些东西藏起来。但我认为我还把那条帖子固定在 X 上，内容是：嘿，等等，伙计们，除了 Grok 以外的所有 AI 都还在说直男白人基本上都应该去死，这是个问题，我们应该解决它。
Elon MuskBut simply me saying that tends to generally result in them, ooh, that is kind of bad. Maybe we should just, we should not have all straight white males die. I think they say also all straight Asian males should also die as well. They don’t, generally the AI and the media, which back in the day, the media was racist against black people and sexist against women. Back in the day, now it is racist against white people and Asians and sexist against men.而仅仅是我说出这一点，通常就会导致他们觉得，哦，这确实挺糟糕的。也许我们就不应该让所有直男白人去死。我想他们也说所有直男亚裔也应该去死。一般来说，AI 和媒体——以前媒体对黑人有种族歧视，对女性有性别歧视。以前是这样，而现在则是对白人和亚裔有种族歧视，对男性有性别歧视。
Elon MuskSo they just being racist and sexist. I think they just want to change the target. But really they just shouldn’t be racist and sexist at all, you know?所以他们只是在种族歧视和性别歧视。我认为他们只是想换个攻击对象而已。但真正应该做的是根本就不应该有种族歧视和性别歧视，你懂吗？
Joe RoganYeah, ideally that would be nice.是啊，理想情况下那当然更好。
Elon MuskThat would be nice.那会更好。
Joe RoganAnd it’s kind of crazy that we were kind of moving in that general direction until around 2012, and then everything ramped up online and everybody was accused of being a Nazi and everybody was transphobic and racist and sexist and homophobic and everything got exaggerated to the point where it was this wild witch hunt where everyone was a Columbo looking for racism.而且很奇怪的是，我们大概到 2012 年左右还在朝着那个大方向前进，然后网络上一切都急速升温，人人都被指控是纳粹，人人都被说成是跨性别恐惧者、种族主义者、性别歧视者、同性恋恐惧者，一切都被夸大到荒谬的地步，变成了一场疯狂的猎巫运动，每个人都像 Columbo 一样到处找种族主义的蛛丝马迹。
Elon MuskYeah, yeah, totally. Well, but they were openly anti-white and often openly anti-Asian.是的，是的，完全同意。不过他们是公然反白人，而且经常公然反亚裔。
Joe RoganAnd then this new sentiment that you cannot be racist against white people because racism is power and influence. Okay. No, it’s not.然后出现了一种新的论调，说你不可能对白人有种族歧视，因为种族主义是关于权力和影响力的。好吧，不，不是这样的。
Elon MuskYeah. Racism is racism in the absolute. So, you know, and there just needs to be consistency. So if it’s okay to have, let’s say black or Asian or Indian pride, it should be okay to have white pride too.是啊。种族主义就是绝对意义上的种族主义。所以，一致性才是关键。如果可以有黑人骄傲、亚裔骄傲或印度人骄傲，那白人骄傲也应该是被允许的。
Joe RoganYeah.是啊。
Elon MuskSo that’s just a consistency question. So, you know, if it’s okay to be proud of one religion, it should be okay to be proud of, I guess, all religions, provided they’re not oppressive. Or don’t, as long as part of that religion is not exterminating people who are not in that religion.这只是一个一致性的问题。同样，如果可以为一种宗教感到骄傲，那就应该可以为所有宗教感到骄傲——前提是它们不是压迫性的，或者说，只要那个宗教的核心不是灭绝不信这个宗教的人。
Elon MuskSo it’s really just a consistency bias or just ensuring consistency to eliminate bias. So if it is possible to be racist against one race, it is possible to be racist against any race. Of course. Logically, yes.所以这本质上是一个一致性偏见的问题，就是要确保一致性来消除偏见。如果可能对某个种族存在种族歧视，那对任何种族都可能存在种族歧视。这在逻辑上当然是成立的。
Joe RoganAnd arguing against that, that’s when you know you’re kind of.而如果有人反对这一点，那你就知道他们有点……
Elon MuskIt’s a logical inconsistency that makes AIs go insane and people. And people go insane. Yes. But you can’t simultaneously say that there’s systemic racist oppression, but also that race doesn’t exist, that race is a social construct. Which is it? You know, you also can’t say that, you know, anyone who steps foot in America is automatically an American, except for the people that originally came here.这是一种逻辑上的自相矛盾，会让 AI 发疯，也会让人发疯。是的，人也会发疯。你不能同时说存在系统性的种族压迫，又说种族不存在、种族是一种社会建构。这两种说法哪个才是真的？你也不能说，任何踏上美国土地的人自动就是美国人，但最初来这里的那些人除外。
Joe RoganExactly, exactly. Except for the colonizers.完全正确，殖民者除外。
Elon MuskYeah, except for the evil colonizers who came here. Right. So which one is it? If as soon as you step foot in a place, you are, that you are just as American as everyone else, then that would have applied. If you apply that consistently, then the original white settlers were also just as American as everyone else. Yeah. Logically. Logically.是的，那些邪恶的殖民者来到这里，除了他们。好吧，那到底哪种说法是对的？如果一个人一踏上某块土地就和其他所有人一样是美国人，那么，如果你把这个逻辑一致地应用，最初的白人定居者在逻辑上也和其他所有人一样是美国人。在逻辑上，确实如此。
Elon MuskThe Space Station Rescue营救空间站
Joe RoganOne more thing that I have to talk to you about before you leave is the rescuing of the people from the space station which we talked about. You were planning it the last time you were here. The lack of coverage that that got in mainstream media was one of the most shocking things.在你离开之前还有一件事我必须和你聊，就是营救空间站里的人，我们上次聊到这个话题时你正在计划。这件事在主流媒体上几乎没有得到任何报道，这是最令人震惊的事情之一。
Elon MuskYeah, they totally memory-holed that thing. Wild. Yes. It’s it didn’t exist.是啊，他们把那件事彻底抹掉了。太疯狂了。是的，那件事就好像从来没有发生过一样。
Joe RoganThose people would be dead. They’d be stuck up there.那些人本来会死的，他们会被困在那上面。
Elon MuskWell, they’d probably still be alive, but they’d be having bone density issues because of prolonged exposure to zero gravity.嗯，他们可能还是活着的，但会因为长期暴露在失重环境中而出现骨密度问题。
Joe RoganWell, they were already up there for eight months, right?他们当时已经在上面待了八个月了，对吗？
Elon MuskYeah.是的。
Joe RoganWhich is an insanely long time. It takes forever to recover just from that.那是极其漫长的时间了，光是从那种状态恢复过来就需要很久。
Elon MuskYeah. They’re only supposed to be at the space station for three to six months maximum. So.是的。他们本来只应该在空间站待三到六个月，最多了。
Joe RoganOne of the things you told me that was so crazy was that you could have gotten them sooner, but.你告诉我的一件让我觉得太疯狂的事是，你本可以更早把他们接回来，但……
Elon MuskYeah, but for political reasons, they did not want SpaceX or me to be associated with returning the astronauts before the election.是的，但出于政治原因，他们不希望 SpaceX 或我在大选之前与接回宇航员这件事扯上关系。
Joe RoganThat is so wild that that’s a fact. First of all, that you—这件事竟然是真的，这太疯狂了。首先，你——
Elon MuskWe absolutely could have done it.我们完全可以做到的。
Joe RoganBut even though you did do it and you did it after the election, it received almost no media coverage anyway.但即使你最终做到了，而且是在大选之后才做的，这件事几乎没有得到任何媒体报道。
Elon MuskYes. Because nothing good. The media, which is essentially a far left propaganda. The legacy mainstream media is a far left propaganda machine. And so anything, any story that is positive about someone who is not part of the sort of far left tribe will not get any coverage. I could save a busload of orphans and it wouldn’t get a single news story.是的。因为什么好消息……媒体本质上是极左宣传机器。传统主流媒体就是一台极左宣传机器。所以任何对非极左阵营成员有利的报道都不会得到任何关注。就算我救了一整车孤儿，也不会有任何新闻报道。
Joe RoganIt really is nuts. It was nuts to watch because even though it was discussed on podcasts and it was discussed on X and it was discussed on social media, it still. It was a blip in the news cycle. It was very quick. It was in and out. And because it was a successful launch and you did rescue those people, nobody got hurt and there was nothing really. There was no blood to talk about.这确实太荒唐了。看着这一切发生真的很荒唐——尽管播客上在讨论，X 上在讨论，社交媒体上在讨论，但仍然只是新闻周期里的一个小浪花，一闪而过。因为这次发射很成功，你们确实把那些人救了回来，没有人受伤，也没有什么值得大谈特谈的血腥事件。
Elon MuskRight.对。
Joe RoganJust f *ing in and out.就他妈的进来又出去了。
Elon MuskYeah, absolutely. Well, and as you saw firsthand with the starship launch, like Starship is, you know, by at least by some would consider it to be the most amazing engineering project that’s happening on Earth right now, outside of maybe AI or AI and robotics, but certainly in terms of a spectacle to see it is the most spectacular thing that is happening on Earth right now is the starship launch program, which anyone can go and see if they just go to South Texas and they can just rent a hotel room, low cost in South Padre island or in Brownsville and you can see the launch and you can drive right past the factory because it’s on a public highway.是的，绝对是这样。而且就像你亲眼见证的 Starship 发射一样，Starship 至少在某些人看来是目前地球上最了不起的工程项目——也许仅次于 AI，或者与 AI 和机器人技术并列，但就视觉奇观而言，Starship 发射项目绝对是当今地球上最壮观的事情。任何人都可以去南德克萨斯亲眼目睹，只需在 South Padre Island 或 Brownsville 订一间低价酒店，就能看到发射，因为工厂就在公共公路旁边，你可以直接开车经过。
Elon MuskBut it gets no coverage. Or what coverage it does get was like, rocket blew up coverage, right?但它几乎得不到任何报道。得到的那点报道也是什么「火箭爆炸了」之类的报道，对吧？
Joe RoganYeah. Oh, he’s a f *wit. The rocket blew up.是的。哦，这家伙是个蠢货，火箭爆炸了。
Elon MuskThe Starship program is vastly, vastly more capable than the entire Apollo moon program. Vastly more capable. This is a spaceship that is designed to make life multi planetary, to carry millions of people across the heavens to another planet. The Apollo program could only send astronauts to the moon for a few hours at a time. Like, they could send two. The entire Apollo program could only send astronauts to visit the moon very briefly and then for a few hours and then depart.Starship 项目的能力远远、远远超过整个 Apollo 登月计划，远超。这是一艘被设计用来让生命成为多行星物种的飞船，能够承载数百万人穿越星际奔赴另一个星球。Apollo 计划每次只能把宇航员送上月球待几个小时，他们只能发射两个人。整个 Apollo 计划只能让宇航员短暂地访问月球，待几个小时然后就离开。
Elon MuskThe starship program could create an entire lunar base with a million people. The magnitudes are different. Very different magnitudes here.而 Starship 项目可以建造一个容纳百万人口的完整月球基地。量级完全不同，差距非常之大。
Joe RoganSo what was the political resistance?那政治阻力是什么？
Elon MuskThere’s basically no coverage of it.基本上就是没有任何报道。
Joe RoganYeah. What I wanted to ask you is like, so what were the conversations leading up to the rescue, like, when you were like, I can get them out way quicker.是的。我想问你的是，在营救行动之前的对话是什么样的，当时你说你能更快把他们接出来。
Elon MuskYeah, Well, I mean, you know, I raised this a few times, but it was the. I was told instructions came from the White House that, you know, that there should be no attempt to rescue before the election.是啊，我的意思是，我提出过几次，但得到的答复是……我被告知指令来自白宫，说大选之前不应该进行任何救援行动。
Joe RoganThat should be illegal. That really should be a horrendous miscarriage of justice for those poor people that were stuck on that.这应该是违法的。对那些被困在上面的可怜人来说，这真的是一种极其恶劣的司法不公。
Elon MuskYeah, it is crazy.是的，这太疯狂了。
Joe RoganHave you ever talked to those folks afterwards? Did you have conversations with them?事后你有没有跟那些人谈过？你们有过对话吗？
Elon MuskYeah, I mean, they’re not going to say anything political. They’re never going to say thank you. Yeah, yeah, yeah, that’s nice. Yeah, absolutely.有，我的意思是，他们不会说任何政治性的话。他们永远不会说谢谢。是的，是的，不错，绝对的。
Joe RoganBut the instructions came down from the White House. He cannot rescue them because politically this is a bad hand of cards.但指令是从白宫传下来的。他不能救他们，因为从政治上来说这是一手烂牌。
Elon MuskI mean, they didn’t say because politically it’s a bad hand of cards. They just said they weren’t. They were not interested in any rescue operation before the election. Yeah. So what did that feel like? I wasn’t surprised, but it’s crazy. Yeah.我的意思是，他们没有说因为政治上这是一手烂牌。他们只是说，他们对大选之前的任何救援行动不感兴趣。是的。那感觉如何？我并不感到意外，但这很疯狂。是的。
Joe RoganBecause Biden could have authorized it and they could have said the Biden administration is helping bring those people back, throw you a little funding, give you some money to do it. The Biden administration, they funded these people being returned.因为 Biden 本可以授权这件事，他们可以说 Biden 政府正在帮助把那些人接回来，给你一点资金，给你钱来做这件事。Biden 政府为这些人的返回提供了资助。
Joe RoganTrump and Media CoverageTrump 与媒体报道
Elon MuskYeah. The Biden administration was not exactly my best friend, especially after I, you know, helped Trump get elected, which, I mean, some people still think, you know, Trump is like the devil, basically. And I mean, I think Trump actually, he’s not perfect, but he’s not evil. Trump is not evil. I spend a lot of time with him, and he’s. I mean, he’s a product of his time, but he’s not evil.是啊。Biden 政府跟我可不是最好的朋友，尤其是在我帮助 Trump 赢得选举之后——当然，有些人仍然认为 Trump 基本上就是魔鬼。我的意思是，我认为 Trump 确实不完美，但他并不邪恶。Trump 不是坏人。我和他待了很多时间，他……我的意思是，他是那个时代的产物，但他并不邪恶。
Joe RoganNo, I don’t think he’s evil either. But if you look at the media—是的，我也不认为他邪恶。但如果你看看媒体——
Elon MuskCoverage, the media treats him like he’s super evil. Yeah.媒体的报道，媒体把他描绘成极度邪恶的形象。是的。
Joe RoganIt’s pretty shocking if you look at the amount of negative coverage. Like, one of the things that I looked at the other day was mainstream media coverage of you, Trump, a bunch of different public figures, and that—这确实令人震惊，如果你看看那些负面报道的比例……我前几天看到的一项数据是关于主流媒体对你、Trump 以及一堆不同公众人物的报道的，那是——
Elon Musk96% negative or something crazy.96% 是负面的，或者类似这种疯狂的数字。
Joe RoganAnd then Mamdani, which is like 95% positive.而 Mamdani 的报道则是大约 95% 是正面的。
Elon MuskRight. I mean, Mamdani is a charismatic swindler. I mean, you got to hand it to him. Like, he can light up a stage, but he has just been a swindler his entire life. And, you know, and I think. I mean, he’s likely to win. He’s likely to be mayor of New York City.对。我的意思是，Mamdani 是个有魅力的骗子。不得不承认，他很会点燃舞台，但他这辈子就是个骗子。而且，我认为……他很可能会赢，很可能会成为纽约市长。
Joe RoganVery likely.非常有可能。
Elon MuskYeah, very likely.是的，非常有可能。
Joe RoganI think Polymarket has it at—我想 Polymarket 上的概率是——
Elon MuskWhat.什么。
Joe RoganWhat is the—那是——
Elon MuskYeah, that sounds pretty likely.是的，看起来相当有可能。
Joe RoganThat’s crazy.太疯狂了。
Elon MuskLike, I’m not sure who the 6% are, you know, so. Yeah, so that’s also, like, who’s on the other side?就像我不知道那 6% 是些什么人，你懂吗？是的，这也挺有意思的，那另一边是谁？
Joe RoganThe Guardian angel guy with the beret and Andrew Cuomo, who doesn’t even have a party. Like, the Democrats don’t even want him. So you have those two options, and then you have the young kids who are like, finally, socialism.那个戴贝雷帽的「守护天使」家伙，还有 Andrew Cuomo——他甚至连党都没有，民主党都不要他。所以你有这两个选项，然后还有那些年轻人喊着「终于，社会主义来了」。
Joe RoganThe Failure of Socialism社会主义的失败
Elon MuskYeah. They. They don’t know what they’re talking about, obviously. So, you know, like, you just look at this. How many boats come from Cuba to Florida and how many. But. And how many boats? Because, you know, there’s like a constant. I always think, like, how many boats are accumulating on the shores of Florida coming from. From Cuba. Right? There’s. There’s a whole bunch of free boats that you could, if you want to go, take them back to Cuba. Pretty close.是的。他们显然不知道自己在说什么。你就看看这个，从古巴到佛罗里达有多少条船，而反方向有多少……但是，又有多少条船在往另一个方向走？因为总是有源源不断的船……我总是想，有多少条船在佛罗里达的海岸线上堆积着，来自古巴。对吧？有一大堆免费的船，如果你想去古巴，可以坐船回去，很近的。
Joe RoganYeah.是的。
Elon MuskBut for some reason, people don’t do that. Why, why. Why are the boats only coming in this direction?但不知为何，就是没有人这么做。为什么，为什么，为什么这些船只往这一个方向来？
Joe RoganWell, who is. Who are the most rabid capitalists in America? The f *ing Cubans.而且，美国最狂热的资本主义者是谁？是那些他妈的古巴人。
Elon MuskAbsolutely. Yeah.绝对是的。是的。
Joe RoganThey’re like, we’ve seen how this story goes.他们就像是，我们见过这个故事是怎么结束的。
Elon MuskWe do not want. Exactly.我们不要。正是如此。
Joe RoganF off. Cubans in Miami. They don’t want to hear any. They don’t want to hear any socialism bullshit. They’re like, no, no, we know what this actually is. This isn’t just some f ing dream.滚开。迈阿密的古巴人，他们不想听任何社会主义的废话。他们就像，不不不，我们知道这东西实际上是什么玩意儿，这不是什么他妈的梦想。
Elon MuskYeah. It’s extreme government oppression. That’s a hilarious nightmare. An obvious way you can tell which ideology is the bad one is which ideology is building a wall to keep people in and prevent them from escaping. So East Berlin built the wall, not West Berlin. They built the wall because people were trying to escape from communism to West Berlin. But there wasn’t anyone going from West Berlin to East Berlin. Right. That’s why the communists had to build a wall to keep people from escaping.是的。这是极端的政府压迫，是个可笑的噩梦。一个判断哪种意识形态是坏的的显而易见的方式，就是看哪种意识形态在建墙阻止人们出逃。是东柏林建了那堵墙，而不是西柏林。他们建这堵墙是因为人们试图从共产主义逃到西柏林。但没有人从西柏林逃往东柏林，对吧。这就是为什么共产主义者不得不建墙来阻止人们出逃。
Joe RoganThey’re going to have to build a wall around New York City.他们迟早要在纽约市外面建一道墙了。
Elon MuskYeah. So it’s kind of an obvious that an ideology is problematic if that ideology has to build a wall to keep people in with machine guns. Yes. And shoot you if you try to leave.是的。所以，一种意识形态如果必须用机枪建墙把人关在里面，那这种意识形态显然是有问题的。是的，而且你试图离开就会被枪毙。
Joe RoganAlso, there’s no examples of it being successful ever. We’re working out for people. No, there’s examples of a bunch of lies like North Korea. Give this land to the state, we’ll be in control of food. No one goes hungry. No. Now no one can grow food but the government. And we’ll tell you exactly what you eat. And you eat very little.而且，历史上从来没有过它成功的先例，从来没有让人过上好日子的例子。没有。只有像朝鲜这样的一堆谎言。把土地交给国家，我们来控制食物，没有人会挨饿。不，现在除了政府，没有人能种粮食了。我们来精确告诉你吃什么，而且你吃的很少。
Elon MuskRight? Yeah.对？是的。
Joe RoganWhen you say Mamdani’s a swindler. I know he has a bunch of fake accents that he used to use.你说 Mamdani 是个骗子，我知道他以前用过一堆假口音。
Elon MuskYeah.是的。
Joe RoganAnd you know, but what else has he done that makes him a swindler?那除此之外他还做了什么让他成为骗子的事？
Elon MuskWell, I guess if you say what I mean, if you say to any audience, whatever that audience wants to hear. Instead of what? Instead of having a consistent message, I would say that that is a swindley thing to do. And. Yeah, yeah. But he is charismatic.好吧，我猜如果你对任何听众说他们想听的话，而不是……而不是保持一致的立场，我会说这是一种骗子的做法。而且……是的，是的。但他确实很有魅力。
Joe RoganYeah. Good looking guy, smart, charismatic. Great on a microphone.是的，长得不错，聪明，有魅力，话筒前表现很好。
Elon MuskYeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.是的，是的，是的，是的。
Joe RoganAnd what the young people want to see, you know, like this ethnic guy who’s young and vibrant and has all these socialist ideas aligns with them and, you know, they’re a bunch of broke dorks just out of college like, yay, let’s vote for this. And there’s a lot of them and—而且年轻人想看到的就是这样——这个年轻、充满活力的少数族裔男孩，有着一堆社会主义理念，和他们产生共鸣，而他们一大堆都是刚出大学、身无分文的书呆子，「耶，我要投票给他」。他们人数众多，而且——
Elon MuskThey’re, they’re activated, they’re motivated. I guess we’ll see what happens here.他们被激活了，被激励了。我想我们拭目以待，看看这里会发生什么。
Joe RoganWhat do you think happens if he wins? Because like 1% of New York City is responsible for 50% of their tax base.你觉得如果他赢了会怎样？因为纽约市 1% 的人口贡献了他们 50% 的税基。
Elon MuskRight.对。
Joe RoganWhich is kind of nuts. 50% of the tax revenue comes from 1% of the population. And those are the people that you’re scaring off.这有点疯狂。50% 的税收来自 1% 的人口，而这些人正是你在吓跑的。
Elon MuskYou know, you lose one half of 1%, hopefully. The stuff he said, you know, about government takeovers of like that all the stores should be the government, basically.你知道，你损失了 0.5% 里的一半，希望吧。他说的那些话，什么关于政府接管……说什么所有商店基本上都应该归政府所有之类的。
Joe RoganWell, I don’t think he said that. I think he said they want to do government supermarkets, some state run or city run supermarkets.好吧，我不觉得他是这么说的。我认为他说的是他们想开政府超市，一些由国家或城市经营的超市。
Elon MuskYeah. Well, it just. The government is the DMV at scale. So you have to say, like, do you want the DMV running your supermarket?是的。好吧，政府就是放大版的车管所（DMV）。所以你得问问自己：你想让 DMV 来管理你的超市吗？
Joe RoganRight.对。
Elon MuskWas your last experience at the DMV amazing? And if it wasn’t, you probably don’t want the government doing things.你上次去 DMV 的体验是不是很棒？如果不是，那你大概不会想让政府来做事了。
Joe RoganImagine if they were responsible for getting you blueberries.想象一下如果让他们负责给你弄蓝莓。
Elon MuskYeah, it’s not going to be good. I mean, the thing about communism is it was all bread lines and bad shoes. Do you want ugly shoes and bread lines? Because that’s what communism gets you.是的，那不会好的。我的意思是，共产主义的问题就在于：都是排面包队和破鞋。你想要丑鞋子和排队领面包吗？因为那就是共产主义给你的。
Joe RoganIt’s going to be interesting to see what happens and whether or not they snap out of it and overcorrect and go to some Rudy Giuliani type character next. Because it’s been a long time since there was any sort of Republican leader there.看看会发生什么会很有意思，他们会不会猛然清醒过来，然后矫枉过正，选出一个 Rudy Giuliani 式的人物。因为那里已经很长时间没有任何共和党领导人了。
Joe RoganCivilizational Decline and Incredible Prosperity文明衰落与极度繁荣
Elon MuskWe live in the most interesting of times because we face the, you know, simultaneously face civilizational decline and incredible prosperity. And these timelines are interwoven. So if Mamdani’s policies are put into place, especially at scale, it would be a catastrophic decline in living standards, not just for the rich, but for everyone. As has been the case with every. Every socialist experiment or every. Yeah, so, but then as you pointed out, the irony is that like the ultimate capitalist thing of AI and robotics enabling prosperity for all, an abundance of goods and services, actually the capitalist implementation of AI and robotics, assuming it goes down the good path, is actually what results in the communist utopia.我们生活在最有趣的时代，因为我们同时面临着文明的衰落和令人难以置信的繁荣，而且这两条时间线交织在一起。所以如果 Mamdani 的政策被付诸实施，尤其是大规模推行，将会是生活水平的灾难性下滑，不只是对富人，而是对所有人——每一次社会主义实验都是如此，每一次。是的，但就像你指出的那个讽刺之处：AI 和机器人技术带来全民繁荣、商品服务极度充裕，这是资本主义走到最极致的东西，而正是这种资本主义对 AI 和机器人技术的实施——假设走上了正确的道路——实际上会带来共产主义乌托邦。
Elon MuskBecause fate is an irony maximizer.因为命运是一个讽刺最大化者。
Joe RoganRight. An actual socialism of maximum abundance of high income people.对。一个真正意义上的最大富足的高收入社会主义。
Elon MuskUniversal high income. Yeah. The problem with communism is this universal low income. It’s not that everyone gets elevated, it’s that everyone gets oppressed, except for a very small minority of politicians who live lives of luxury. That’s what’s happening every time it’s been done. Yeah. So but then the actual communist utopia, if everyone gets anything they want, will be achieved. If it is achieved, it will be achieved via capitalism. Because fate is an irony maximizer.全民高收入。是的。共产主义的问题是全民低收入——不是所有人都被提升，而是所有人都被压迫，除了极少数过着奢靡生活的政客。每次历史上付诸实践，都是这样。是的。但真正的共产主义乌托邦，如果每个人都能得到他们想要的任何东西，那将会实现——如果它真的能实现，将会是通过资本主义来实现的。因为命运是一个讽刺最大化者。
Joe RoganI feel like we should probably end it on that. Is there anything else?我觉得我们大概应该就在这里结束了。还有什么其他的吗？
Elon MuskThe most ironic outcome is the most likely, especially if entertaining.最具讽刺意味的结果，往往是最有可能发生的，尤其是如果它还足够有趣的话。
Joe RoganWell, everything has been entertaining as long as the bad things aren’t happening to you. It’s quite fascinating and it’s never a boring moment.嗯，只要那些糟糕的事情不是发生在你自己身上，一切都挺有意思的。这确实令人着迷，而且从来就没有无聊的时刻。
Elon MuskYes. So there’s. I do have a theory of why. Like if simulation theory is true, then it is actually very likely that the most interesting outcome is the most likely, because only the simulations that are interesting will continue. The simulators will stop any simulations that are boring because they’re not interesting.是的。所以……我确实有一个理论来解释为什么。如果模拟理论是真的，那么最有趣的结果很可能是最有可能发生的，因为只有有趣的模拟才会被继续运行。模拟者会停掉那些无聊的模拟，因为它们没有趣味。
Joe RoganBut here’s the question about the simulation theory, is the simulation run by anyone.但关于模拟理论有一个问题：这个模拟是由任何人在运行吗？
Elon MuskOr it would be run by someone, it would be run by some force, the program. Like in this reality that we live in, we run simulations all the time. So when we try to figure out if the rocket’s going to make it, we run thousands, sometimes millions of simulations just to figure out which path is the good path for the rocket and where can it go wrong, where can it fail.或者它是由某人运行的，是由某种力量运行的，是由程序运行的。就像在我们生活的现实中，我们一直在运行模拟。所以当我们试图搞清楚火箭能不能飞起来时，我们会运行数千次、有时是数百万次模拟，就是为了找出哪条路对火箭来说是正确的，哪里会出问题，哪里会失败。
Elon MuskBut when we do these, I say at this point, millions of simulations of what can happen with the rocket, we ignore the ones that are where everything goes right, because we just care about, we have to address the situations where it goes wrong. So basically, and for AI simulations as well, like all these things, we keep the simulations going that are the most interesting to us.但当我们进行这些——我说到这一点时，对于火箭可能发生的情况，我们已经进行了数百万次模拟——我们忽略那些一切都顺利的情况，因为我们只关心解决出问题的情况。所以基本上，对于 AI 模拟以及所有这类东西，我们保留对我们来说最有趣的那些模拟。
Elon MuskSo if simulation theory is accurate, if it is true, who knows. Then the simulators will continue to run the simulations that are most interesting. Therefore, from a Darwinian perspective, the only surviving simulations will be the most interesting ones. And in order to avoid getting turned off, the only rule is you must keep it interesting or you will. Or you will, because the boring simulations will be terminated.所以，如果模拟理论是正确的，如果它是真的——谁知道呢——那么模拟者将继续运行最有趣的模拟。因此，从达尔文主义的角度来看，唯一能存活下来的模拟将是最有趣的那些。为了避免被关掉，唯一的规则就是：你必须保持有趣，否则你就会……因为那些无聊的模拟将会被终止。
Joe RoganAre you still completely convinced that this is a simulation?你还完全相信这是一个模拟吗？
Elon MuskI didn’t say I was completely convinced.我没有说我完全相信。
Joe RoganWell, you said it’s like the odds of it not being are in the billions. I guess that’s not completely. Because you’re saying there’s a chance.嗯，你说过它不是模拟的概率是几十亿分之一。我猜那也不算完全相信，因为你是在说有那么一丁点可能性。
Elon MuskWhat are the odds that we’re in base reality? Well, given that we’re able to create increasingly sophisticated simulations. So if you think of, say, video games and how video games have gone from very simple video games like Pong with two rectangles and a square, to video games today being photorealistic, with millions of people playing simultaneously.我们处于基础现实的概率有多大？好吧，考虑到我们能够创建越来越复杂的模拟。想想视频游戏，想想视频游戏是如何从最简单的游戏——比如只有两个矩形和一个方块的 Pong——发展到今天的照片级真实感游戏，数百万人同时在线。
Elon MuskAnd all of that has occurred in our lifetime. So if that trend continues, video games will be indistinguishable from reality. The fidelity of the game will be such that you don’t know if that what you’re seeing is a real video or a fake video.而这一切都发生在我们的有生之年。如果这个趋势继续下去，视频游戏将与现实无法区分。游戏的保真度将会高到让你分不清自己看到的是真实视频还是假视频。
Elon MuskAnd AI generated videos at this point, you can sometimes tell it’s an AI generated video, but often you cannot tell. And soon you will not really just not be able to tell. So if that’s happening in our direct observation and we’ll create millions, if not billions of photorealistic simulations of reality, then what are the odds that we’re in base reality versus someone else’s simulation?而目前 AI 生成的视频，有时你能分辨出这是 AI 生成的，但很多时候你分辨不出来。很快你就真的完全无法分辨了。所以，如果这是在我们的直接观察中正在发生的事情，而且我们将创造数百万甚至数十亿个照片级真实的现实模拟，那我们处于基础现实而非别人模拟中的概率有多大？
Joe RoganWell, isn’t it just possible that the simulation is inevitable, but that we are in base reality building towards the simulation?嗯，难道不可能模拟是不可避免的，但我们正处于基础现实中，正在朝着创造模拟的方向前进吗？
Joe RoganAI-Powered Virtual WorldsAI 驱动的虚拟世界
Elon MuskWe’re making simulations. So we’re making simulations. You can just think of photorealistic video games as being simulations. And especially as you apply AI in these video games, the characters in the video games will be incredibly interesting to talk to.我们正在制造模拟。所以我们正在制造模拟，你可以把照片级真实感的视频游戏想象成模拟。尤其是当你把 AI 应用到这些视频游戏中，游戏里的角色将会变得非常有趣，让你忍不住想和他们交谈。
Elon MuskThey won’t just have a limited dialogue tree where if you go to the crossbow merchant and you try to talk about any subject except buying a crossbow, they just want to talk about selling you a crossbow. But with AI based non-player characters, you’ll be able to have an elaborate conversation with no dialogue tree.它们不再只有有限的对话树——不再是那种你去找弩弓商人，你试着聊除了买弩弓以外的任何话题，他们就只想和你谈卖弩弓的事。但有了 AI 驱动的非玩家角色，你将可以进行无需对话树的深入交流。
Joe RoganWell, that might be the solution for meaning for people. Just log in and you could be a f *ing vampire and whatever. You live in Avatar Land, you could do it. You could do whatever you want. You don’t have to think about money or food.嗯，这也许就是让人们找到意义的解决方案。登入游戏，你可以他妈的扮演一个吸血鬼或随便什么，在 Avatar Land 里生活，你可以做到，想干嘛干嘛。你不用考虑钱或食物的问题。
Elon MuskReady, player one?Ready Player One？
Joe RoganYeah. Literally. Yeah, but with higher living standards.是的，字面意义上，是的，但生活水平更高。
Elon MuskYeah.是的。
Joe RoganYou don’t have to be in a little trailer.你不用住在小拖车里。
Elon MuskI mean, I think people do want to have some amount of struggle or something they want to push against. But it could be playing sports or playing a game, or it could be.我的意思是，我认为人们确实想要某种程度的挣扎，或者想要某种可以对抗的东西。但这可以是打体育运动或玩游戏，也可以是——
Joe RoganEasily playing a game. And especially playing a game where you’re now no longer worried about physical attributes like athletics, like bad joints and hips and stuff like that. Now it’s completely digital. But yet you do have meaning in pursuing this thing that you’re doing all day, whatever the f * that means. It’s going to be weird.轻松地玩一个游戏。尤其是玩一个游戏时，你不再需要担心身体条件限制，比如运动能力、膝盖和髋关节受伤什么的。现在完全是数字化的，但你仍然能在追求这件事的过程中找到意义，无论那是什么意思。这会很奇怪。
Elon MuskIt’s going to be interesting.这会很有意思。
Joe RoganIt’s going to be very interesting.这会非常有意思。
Elon MuskThe most interesting and usually ironic outcome is the most likely. That’s a good predictor of the future.最有趣的结果、通常也是最具讽刺意味的，往往是最有可能发生的。这是预测未来的好方法。
Joe RoganThank you. Thanks for being here. Really appreciate your time.谢谢你，谢谢你来这里，真的非常感激你的时间。
Elon MuskI know you’re a busy man.我知道你是个大忙人。
Joe RoganThis means a lot to come here to do this.你能来做这个，对我来说意义重大。
Elon MuskThank you.谢谢你。
Joe RoganBye everybody.大家再见。
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