HostThank you all for sticking around. This afternoon we had some great conversations and we're hoping to have another great one. It is my pleasure, an honor or privilege really, to have this conversation about the future with two gentlemen who know probably more about it than most. The fellow all the way to my right, to your left, does not need any introduction, Elon Musk, you all know from Tesla and SpaceX, of course, from Solar City. Sam Altman, I would say you don't need too much introduction either, but I'm going to give it to you just in case you don't. He runs Y Combinator. Y Combinator has investments in over a thousand companies at this point. They're investing in about 250 companies every single year. Those companies collectively are worth about $65 billion in total, that's with a b. And to give you just a sort of a sense of the kind of names we're talking about, we're talking about Airbnb, Dropbox, Stripe, Zenefits, Instacart, etc. So both folks with an amazing pedigree and an amazing sense of what's going on.感谢大家留下来。今天下午我们已经有了一些精彩的对话，希望接下来还能有一场同样精彩的。我非常荣幸、非常高兴能邀请到两位对未来了解程度恐怕超过大多数人的先生，与我们共同探讨未来。坐在我最右边、你们最左边的这位，无需多介绍——Elon Musk，你们当然都知道他来自 Tesla 和 SpaceX，还有 Solar City。Sam Altman，我说你也不需要太多介绍，不过我还是简单说几句。他执掌 Y Combinator。Y Combinator 目前在逾千家公司有投资，每年投资约 250 家公司，这些公司合计估值约 $65 billion，那是个 b 打头的数字。给大家感受一下我们说的是哪种量级的名字：Airbnb、Dropbox、Stripe、Zenefits、Instacart 等等。两位都有令人惊叹的履历，对眼下正在发生的一切有着超凡的洞察力。
HostHere's where I want to start the conversation with both of you, and I think we're going to probably go to outer space very quickly, but we're going to try to keep it on Earth at least for the moment. When you think about innovation and you think about where we are going to be 10, 15, 20 years, and what to invest in and what to make, I'm going to make it hard for you, Elon: if you took Tesla out of it, took Solar City out of it, took SpaceX out of it, and you said I could go start a new company tomorrow, it would be what, it would be in what area, where would you start thinking about?我想从这里开始和你们两位聊，我们可能很快就会飞到外太空，但我们先尽量把脚踩在地球上。当你们想到创新、想到未来 10、15、20 年我们会走到哪里，以及该投什么、该做什么的时候——Elon，我要为难你了：假设把 Tesla 拿掉、把 Solar City 拿掉、把 SpaceX 拿掉，然后你说我明天可以去创办一家新公司，那会是什么公司？会在哪个领域？你会从哪里开始想？
Elon MuskWell, I think there's a fairly obvious opportunity in electric aircraft, because all transport will electrify over time with the exception of rockets, ironically. But there's, I mean, there's I think there's two areas which, I mean, they're fraught with issues, but it's one of those things where if you don't do something, maybe not doing something is worse, like on the AI front or on genetics. So those are the two things I think, besides sustainable transport, the internet, and making life multiplanetary, rewriting genetics and AI, the latter two are the ones that can most change the destiny of humanity. But they're really dodgy, so I mean maybe I'd try to do something in one of those two areas, but they're fraught with difficulty.我觉得电动飞机领域有一个相当显而易见的机会，因为所有交通方式最终都会电动化——除了火箭，讽刺的是。但有两个领域，我的意思是，它们充满了各种问题，但那种感觉是：如果你什么都不做，也许什么都不做才是更糟糕的选择——比如 AI 方向，或者基因领域。所以除了可持续交通、互联网和让生命成为多行星物种之外，我认为最有可能从根本上改变人类命运的两件事就是基因重写和 AI。但它们真的很危险，所以也许我会尝试在这两个方向之一做点什么，但它们都充满了风险。
HostElizabeth Holmes was here earlier, spoke during the lunch hour. Do you think about genetics and longevity and trying to sort of avoid your friend Larry Page is investing in a business hoping to end death?Elizabeth Holmes 今天早些时候来了，在午餐时间发了言。你有没有思考过基因和长寿这件事？你的朋友 Larry Page 正在投资一家希望终结死亡的公司，你有没有想过去避开它？
Elon MuskI don't, I mean, I'm not actually a huge proponent of longevity. I mean, I do think that having a good life for longer is better, like you'd want to address the things that happen to you when you're older, like dementia and so forth, those are pretty important. But I'm not sure it's sort of actually you know want to do that, want to get into the genetics thing, but it is something that's going to fundamentally change humanity, along with AI.我倒没有，我的意思是，我其实不是长寿的大力支持者。我确实认为更长久地拥有美好的生活是更好的，比如你会希望解决人老了以后出现的那些问题，像是老年痴呆之类的，这些确实很重要。但我不确定自己是否真的想去做那件事，想去涉足基因这个领域。不过这确实是一件将会从根本上改变人类的事情，就像 AI 一样。
HostSo you don't want to live forever so that you can actually get to Mars?所以你不想永远活着，这样你才能真正到达火星？
Elon MuskI definitely don't want to live forever.我绝对不想永远活着。
HostHow many years do you want to live?那你想活多少年？
Elon MuskI don't know, 100 good ones.不知道，100 个好年头吧。
Host100 good ones or 100 more good ones? You're 44.100 个好年头，还是再活 100 个好年头？你今年 44 岁了。
Elon MuskI mean, 100 good ones in total I think is probably fine, and maybe a bit longer.我的意思是，总共 100 个好年头我觉得差不多够了，也许再多一点点。
HostSam, where would you put your money? You're the investor here.Sam，你会把钱押在哪里？你才是这里的投资人。
Sam AltmanWell, I mean we try to invest in a very broad range of technology, so we funded an electric airplane, or funding an electric airplane company. We've done AI companies, we've done, how we the electric airplane...我们努力投资非常广泛的技术领域，所以我们投资了一家电动飞机公司，正在投资一家电动飞机公司。我们做过 AI 公司，我们做过……对了那家电动飞机……
Elon MuskThe electric airplane by the way, I think it should work. I think it makes sense, the math should work.顺便说一下，我觉得电动飞机应该能成。我认为这个逻辑讲得通，数学上也说得过去。
Sam AltmanI actually, I, no huge surprise, but I'll agree with Elon on those two areas. I think if you could pick two things that I'm not already working really hard on: AI, having AI go in the positive direction, which I really think it can, and I think thinking about sort of genetic technology, genetic technology.说实话，毫不意外，在那两个领域我和 Elon 看法一致。我觉得如果能选两件我还没有努力在做的事情，那就是：AI——让 AI 朝着正面方向发展，我真的相信这是可以做到的——以及基因技术，基因技术。
HostI made it unfair for you because I said we had to take Solar City out and we had to take the cars out, so we didn't get to really talk about energy. But I imagine, how big a thing do you think energy, all in, and when you think about both your investments and what you're doing, is something that is one of the things that you need to tackle?我之前的条件设得不公平，因为我说必须把 Solar City 拿掉、把汽车拿掉，所以我们没能真正聊到能源。但我想，你们在考虑投资方向和正在做的事情时，能源这件事，整体来看，你觉得它有多重要，是不是必须去解决的事情之一？
Elon MuskWell, I think sustainable energy is the most important problem that we face this century. That's like a known difficult thing that we have to solve. Like if we continue to rely on burning hydrocarbons, the future is going to be quite bad, and the vast majority of the scientific establishment believes that, and the evidence I think is, well, anyone with a scientific background is unequivocal. So we got to solve sustainable energy. I'm a big fan of solar because we got this big fusion ball in the sky called the Sun, and it shows up every day. So if we can use solar energy plus batteries, we can actually have a complete solution for sustainable energy generation, and then we need to use it in a sustainable way, which is where you need the electric transport.我认为可持续能源是我们这个世纪面临的最重要问题。这是一个已知的、必须解决的艰难课题。如果我们继续依赖燃烧碳氢化合物，未来会相当糟糕，科学界的绝大多数人都这么认为，我觉得证据也摆在那里——任何有科学背景的人都对此毫不含糊。所以我们必须解决可持续能源问题。我非常看好太阳能，因为天上有一个巨大的核聚变火球叫做太阳，它每天都会出现。所以如果我们能利用太阳能加储能电池，就可以为可持续能源的生产提供一个完整的解决方案，然后我们还需要以可持续的方式使用它，这就需要电动交通。
Sam AltmanYeah, so the thing I would add, I think getting the cost of sustainable energy down super low is probably, short of AI, like the most important thing we can do for sort of quality of life of the poorest half of the world. I think that every time I look into this, it's really amazing how much the cost of energy and the quality of life correlate.是的，我想补充的是，我认为把可持续能源的成本大幅降低，短了 AI 的话，大概是我们能为世界上最贫穷的一半人口提升生活质量所能做的最重要的事。每次我深入研究这个问题，都会惊叹于能源成本和生活质量之间的高度相关性。
HostWhat about nuclear energy? You have some investments in nuclear energy.那核能呢？你们在核能方面有一些投资。
Elon MuskYeah, I mean what I've always said is I think the end state of the world is a combination of nuclear and solar, probably 80/20 one way or the other, sort of terrestrial-based nuclear. I think fusion is likely to work at some point in the next couple of decades, and that's a really big deal. I think it's good to have a backup option, it's good to have two sources. But it's all sort of fusion when you think about it.是的，我一直以来的观点是，我认为世界的最终状态是核能与太阳能的组合，大概 80/20 各占一头，地面核能为主。我认为核聚变很可能在未来几十年内的某个时候实现，那将是一个大突破。我认为有一个备选方案是好的，有两个能源来源是好的。不过说起来，从本质上看全都是聚变。
Elon MuskYeah, I mean I think fusion, I think it's definitely possible to make fusion work. I used to be a big fan of having that as the long-term energy source, but I'm inclined to think like indirect fusion from the Sun essentially is going to be the primary source, and then to some degree there will be fusion reactors for, you know, maybe whatever, if you're really far north or really far south or something.是的，我认为让核聚变运作起来绝对是可能的。我曾经非常看好把它作为长期能源来源，但我现在倾向于认为，来自太阳的间接聚变本质上将是主要来源，然后在某种程度上会有聚变反应堆用于……比如说，如果你真的处于极北或者极南的地方。
HostWhat about the risks of nuclear energy, a fusion? I assume there's some risk.核能的风险呢，核聚变的风险？我猜应该有一些风险。
Elon MuskThere's no risk. Not really, zero, I'm an idiot, I don't. No, with fusion the difficulty is keeping it going, not, you know, with fission you have some meltdown risk, although there's new technology on the fission front that makes meltdown risk extremely low. But with fusion the great difficulty is keeping the fire from going out. It's quite hard to sustain a fusion reaction unless you have something very big like the Sun, and the Sun has gravitational confinement of the fusion reaction. So since you can't do gravitational confinement on Earth, you have to do some sort of electromagnetic confinement, one form or another, or a kinetic confinement by slamming things into each other. So it's quite tricky to prevent a fusion explosion from not immediately extinguishing.没有风险，真的没有，零——好吧我是在胡说，不。聚变的难点在于维持它运行，而不是……你知道，裂变有熔毁风险，虽然裂变领域的新技术已经让熔毁风险极低。但聚变最大的难点是防止火焰熄灭。维持聚变反应相当困难，除非你有像太阳那样极其巨大的东西——太阳靠引力约束来维持聚变反应。由于在地球上无法实现引力约束，你必须用某种形式的电磁约束，或者靠让粒子相互碰撞的动能约束。所以要防止聚变反应不立即熄灭，是相当棘手的。
Elon MuskSo fusion is like, I mean probably what you do is just repeat it every second or whatever. Just a sort of, you know, fusion is like when you take say two hydrogen atoms, or two hydrogen isotopes technically, and slam them together and form helium, that's fusion. And then fission is like when you've got like a heavy atom that is decaying at a, you know, relatively like a noticeable rate, like uranium or plutonium, and decays into smaller atoms, then that's fission.所以聚变的做法大概就是每秒重复引爆一次之类的。聚变就是把两个氢原子，或者准确说是两个氢同位素，撞在一起形成氦，这就是聚变。而裂变是指有一个重原子在以可观测的速率衰变——比如铀或钚——衰变成更小的原子，这就是裂变。
HostOkay, I didn't do so well in science so we're going to try to move along. But you recently said that you wanted to nuke Mars. I didn't really understand. Then you guys in the back were doing some science. Talk about how nuking Mars would work.好，我理科学得不太好，我们来快点往下走。不过你最近说想给火星投核弹，我当时没完全理解。然后你们刚才在后台做了一些物理推演。说说给火星投核弹会怎么运作。
Elon MuskYeah, so nuking Mars, I sort of was a little flippant about that. I think it's a really decent idea. Thank you, thank you. So yeah, what it's really getting at, but it's hard to convey that in like 30 seconds on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert, was that the Sun is a nuclear explosion, a fusion explosion, that's what the Sun is, it's an ongoing fusion explosion. So if you wanted to add energy to Mars, like warm up Mars, really the source of almost all energy in the universe is fusion. You know, even fission is, originally there was fusion and then that later resulted in fission. But what I was really talking about is creating two little Suns, two pulsing Suns above the North and South Pole of Mars that would warm the poles up enough so that the frozen CO2 would gasify and densify the atmosphere. Some of the water would also heat up and you'd have sort of more water vapor and CO2 in the Martian atmosphere, which in that case is good because the CO2 ends up warming Mars up, and so you get a positive sort of reaction, like it's a positive cycle of warming on Mars. Like you want to warm Mars up but you don't want to warm Earth up, you know.是的，给火星投核弹这个说法，我当时说得有点随意轻佻。我认为这其实是个相当不错的想法。谢谢，谢谢。它真正想说的是——在《深夜秀》Stephen Colbert 的节目上 30 秒内很难讲清楚——太阳本身就是一场核爆炸，是一场核聚变爆炸，这就是太阳的本质，它是一场持续不断的核聚变爆炸。所以如果你想给火星增加能量、让火星变暖，宇宙中几乎所有能量的来源都是聚变，连裂变最初也是由聚变产生的。我真正想说的是：在火星南北极上方各创造两个小太阳、两个脉冲式跳动的小太阳，让极地足够升温，使冻结的 CO2 气化，从而加大大气密度。一部分水也会升温，你就会在火星大气层中得到更多水蒸气和 CO2，而在这种情况下 CO2 反而是好事，因为 CO2 会让火星进一步升温，从而形成一种正向循环，一种火星变暖的正向周期。你想让火星变暖，但你不想让地球变暖，懂吗。
HostSo why would you ever want to live on Mars?那为什么有人会想住在火星上呢？
Elon MuskIt looks like a great adventure to me.在我看来那是一场了不起的冒险。
HostBeyond the adventure, do you actually, both of you, you're investing in stuff that hopefully one day will go to Mars?冒险之外，你们两位真的相信吗——你在投资一些东西，希望有一天能到达火星？
Sam AltmanNothing for Mars, but, excuse me, I, nothing for Mars, but I hope Elon does. I think that would be cool.我没有投跟火星有关的项目，不好意思，没有投火星相关的，但我希望 Elon 能做到。我觉得那会很酷。
HostBut is that just for one person? Tell what's going to happen. No really, I want to.但那只是一个人的事吗？说说会发生什么吧。不，我是认真的，我想听。
Elon MuskYeah, well I mean the Mars thing is really like, if you say what is going to be really important to the preservation of civilization or life as we know it, more than just humanity because of course we bring life as we know it to Mars. And there's no life that we can detect on the surface of Mars. There may be some subterranean bacterial life, but on the surface there isn't anything. So this would be the extension of life to another planet, or life as we know it to another planet, and I think would make a huge difference to the probable lifespan of human civilization and life as we know it. So it's sort of like an insurance policy, a life insurance policy for life collectively.是的，火星这件事说到底，如果你问什么对文明的保存或者对我们所知的生命真正重要——不只是人类，因为我们当然会把我们所知的生命带到火星上。而目前在火星表面我们检测不到任何生命。火星地下可能有一些细菌生命，但地表没有任何东西。所以这将是生命延伸到另一个星球，或者说把我们所知的生命延伸到另一个星球，我认为这将极大地改变人类文明和我们所知生命的可能寿命。这有点像一份保险，一份集体生命保险。
HostBecause you think global warming, what do you think is going to happen here?因为你担心全球变暖？你认为地球这里会发生什么？
Elon MuskThat's, I don't want to be clear, this is, I mean I think it's important that we become a multiplanet species, not a single planet species, but on another planet. So this is, it's like really it's like what kind of future do you want to have? Do you want to have a future where we are forever confined to one planet, or one where we are out there exploring the stars and on many planets? And I think the latter one is far more exciting and inspiring, because the former is basically waiting around until some extinction event, because eventually there will be one, and it might be quite far in the future but it also might not be far in the future. So there's really two main reasons I think to make life multiplanetary and to establish a self-sustaining civilization on Mars. One is the defensive reason, to ensure that the light of consciousness as we know it is not extinguished, or lasts much longer. And the second is that it would be an amazing adventure that we could all enjoy vicariously, if not personally. I think it's really important to establish multiplanetary life.我不想让人误解，我的意思是——我认为成为多行星物种而不是单一行星物种很重要，是在另一个星球上。这个问题说到底是：你想要什么样的未来？你想要一个我们永远被限制在一个星球上的未来，还是一个我们在外面探索星辰、踏足多个星球的未来？我认为后者远比前者令人兴奋和鼓舞，因为前者基本上就是等着某个灭绝事件的到来——因为最终一定会有那么一天，也许是很遥远的未来，但也可能并不遥远。所以让生命成为多行星形态、在火星上建立一个自我维持的文明，我认为有两个主要原因。一是防御性的原因：确保我们所知的意识之光不会熄灭，或者至少能延续得更久。二是这将是一场我们所有人都能在精神上、哪怕不能亲身经历的情况下共同享受的惊人冒险。我认为建立多行星生命真的非常重要。
Sam AltmanI agree with that. I think my concern is that I think the AI question is likely to become pressing and important to deal with before we can establish a full colony on Mars.我同意这一点。我的担忧是，AI 这个问题很可能在我们能在火星建立完整殖民地之前就变得紧迫而必须面对。
Elon MuskThat's true.那是真的。
Sam AltmanAnd I think even if not, then the AI can like go to Mars on a laser beam.而且即便不是这样，AI 也可以通过激光束直接去火星。
HostThe AI goes, does that mean it's like, justs itself there?AI 去火星？意思是它像光一样传输过去？
Sam AltmanYeah, I mean it's very hard to send through space, but the AI is going to go like 20 minutes you know on a laser beam, it's easy.是的，在太空中传输实体很困难，但 AI 通过激光束大概 20 分钟就到了，轻而易举。
HostDo you guys believe in life forms outside of Earth? You think there are?你们相信地球之外有其他生命形式吗？你们觉得有吗？
Elon MuskI think there's quite a high chance of microbial life. There's much, then as you get more advanced in life that there's less and less likelihood of sophisticated life.我认为微生物生命存在的可能性相当高。然后随着生命复杂程度的提升，更高级生命存在的可能性就越来越低。
HostBut you don't think, do you think there's sophist, you think there are aliens out there that we can talk to?但你不认为，你觉得有高等智慧生命存在吗？你认为有我们可以交流的外星人在那里吗？
Elon MuskYou mean as opposed to like bacteria? There's a great Onion article recently about, like, NASA should only hold a press conference if they find aliens that we can talk to. But I think so. I mean it's an interesting confluence of events, like it's not just that there has to be life, intelligent life that evolves somewhere, but that that life has to last for a long time for us to exist at the same time as that. So what it suggests is there's this great question called the Fermi Paradox, like where are the aliens? Like if there are so many planets out there, and the universe is almost 14 billion years old, why aren't the aliens everywhere? And this is one of the most perplexing questions, because you could basically bicycle to Alpha Centauri in a few hundred thousand years, like meaning at bicycle speed. So it's sort of like, you know, in 100 million years, even at a very slow speed you could completely blanket the galaxy. So why not, where are they? It's very hard for me to get.你是说不像细菌那种？《洋葱报》最近有一篇很棒的文章说，NASA 只有在找到能和我们对话的外星人时才应该召开新闻发布会。我倒觉得可能有。这是一个有趣的事情的汇聚——不只是某个地方要进化出生命、智慧生命，还要求这种生命存活足够长的时间，让我们和它同时存在。所以这带出了一个叫做费米悖论的伟大问题：外星人在哪里？如果宇宙中有那么多星球，而宇宙已经将近 140 亿年了，为什么外星人还没有无处不在？这是最令人困惑的问题之一，因为你基本上可以用自行车的速度在几十万年内骑到 Alpha Centauri，意思就是按自行车的速度。所以说，1 亿年内，哪怕以很慢的速度，你也可以完全铺满整个银河系。那他们在哪里呢？我实在想不通。
HostWe were talking in the back and we've had this conversation before, you please weigh in on this, and I think it's a thought experiment that you have suggested, that we are all collectively right now living in a simulation. What does that mean?我们在后台聊过，我们以前也有过这个对话，请你来评评这个问题——我认为这是你提出的一个思想实验：我们现在集体活在一个模拟程序里。这是什么意思？
Elon MuskYeah, it's a probabilistic thing. So really if you look at the advancement of video games, from say 40 years ago when we started out with Pong, and you had like rectangles batting a rectangle to each other, and now we've got photorealistic 3D simulations with millions of people playing simultaneously, or 3D games with millions of people playing simultaneously, that are just getting better. Now we've got virtual reality headsets so you can just put it on and it feels like you're right there. You'll have haptic feedback, meaning force feedback sticks so you can actually pick up something and feel like you're picking up something, like haptic gloves. And if you extrapolate that advancement at any rate at all, like if you say okay let's say it slows down by a factor of 100 starting right now, then the video games will be distinguishable from reality in let's say 200 years instead of 20 years or something like that.是的，这是一个概率问题。如果你看电子游戏的发展，从大约 40 年前从 Pong 开始——那时候你有几个矩形互相对打另一个矩形——到现在，我们已经有了数百万人同时在线的照片级真实 3D 模拟，或者数百万人同时在线的 3D 游戏，而且还在不断变好。现在我们有了 VR 头显，戴上就感觉置身其中。还会有触觉反馈，也就是力反馈装置，让你真的可以拿起某样东西并感觉好像真的在拿着它，比如触觉手套。如果你以任何速度推断这个进步——就算说好，从现在开始慢下来 100 倍——那视频游戏与现实无法区分的时间也不过是 200 年而不是 20 年之类的。
HostBut you don't think that we're in a game right now? Okay, well, this is like we all somebody has a joystick somewhere else in some other, you know where I'm going with it. It certainly doesn't feel like that. I mean I don't think I'm being played by somebody in a video game.但你不是真的认为我们现在就在一个游戏里吧？好吧，这就像，在某个平行世界某处有人握着一根操纵杆……你知道我要说什么。感觉肯定不像那样。我是说我不觉得自己是被某个视频游戏里的人控制的。
Elon MuskBut then people in video games don't generally think that. I certainly think if you talk to people who use the latest virtual reality equipment in sort of a big space where they sort of map like benches in the space to benches in the game and the environment, you know, they have this experience when they do that for the first time and they take it off and then they just freeze for 10 seconds, and you talk to them and it's clear that their belief that this is actual reality has been shaken, because they were so convinced in virtual reality that that was real. And so if I can take this off, like why aren't there other layers?但电子游戏里的人通常也不这么想。我确实认为，如果你和那些在一个大型空间里体验最新 VR 设备的人交谈——他们把现实空间里的长椅映射成游戏里的长椅——他们第一次体验完摘下头显后，往往会愣在那里 10 秒钟。你跟他们说话，可以明显感觉到他们对「这才是真实现实」的信念已经被动摇了，因为他们在 VR 里实在太确信那就是真实的了。所以如果我能把这个摘掉，那为什么不会存在其他层？
Sam AltmanI also think it ties interestingly back to the Fermi Paradox. You know, if it is a simulation, sort of that would be a pretty good answer for why there are no aliens.我还觉得这有趣地呼应了费米悖论。如果这真的是一个模拟程序，那倒是对「为什么没有外星人」这个问题的一个相当好的解答。
HostHow far are we away from sort of virtual reality being a thing all of us sort of live in to some degree? We would go to this conference, we would go to this conference from our VR sets?距离 VR 成为我们所有人都在某种程度上生活其中的东西，还有多远？我们会戴着 VR 头显来参加这样的会议吗？
Elon MuskI mean I do think there's still something to actually really being there in person that we probably won't lose for a long time, hopefully never. But with what Oculus and Valve are coming out with, and I believe some of that, like the first VR headsets are due out early next year, like in the next several months, and the demos that I've seen, and I think Sam's probably seen too, are incredibly compelling. And there is that strange feeling because you put the headset on in like a very nondescript bland room, and suddenly you're in anywhere, like you could be.我确实认为，真正亲身在场这件事仍然有它独特的价值，这种价值我们可能很长一段时间都不会失去，希望永远不会。但就 Oculus 和 Valve 即将推出的产品而言——我相信第一批 VR 头显将在明年年初、也就是未来几个月内上市——我见过的演示，我相信 Sam 也见过，都令人极为震撼。而且那种奇妙的感觉是真实的，因为你在一个极其普通、乏味的空白房间里戴上头显，突然间你就到了任何地方，你可以……
Sam AltmanYeah, you know, I got this demo where they would like blow air on you when you got near a cliff edge, and when you walk near a fire they would turn on a heater, and you don't see any of this because you're just wearing it. And it's really quite compelling.是的，我体验了一个演示，当你靠近悬崖边缘时他们会对你吹风，当你走近火焰时他们会打开加热器，而你什么都看不见，因为你只是戴着头显。那真的相当令人信服。
HostI want to talk about something else that's compelling, which is Tesla. Talk about the X, it's an SUV.我想聊另一个令人信服的话题——Tesla。说说 Model X，它是一辆 SUV。
Elon MuskIt's an SUV.它是一辆 SUV。
HostBut here's what I was going to say: $132,000. How many people are really going to buy this thing?但我要说的是：$132,000。到底会有多少人去买这辆车？
Elon MuskYeah, so the first cars that are produced are the sort of fully optioned version, so it's not like a base price of you know $132,000. We'll have a version that's still expensive on the expensive side, but before any incentives would be about $75k next year, and with incentives and whatnot it's you know maybe $65k. So it's still expensive but it's not as crazy as $132k. And then in a couple years we should have the Model 3, and that'll be a starting price of $35,000. So it's a smaller car but it's a lot more affordable.是这样的，最先生产的车是全配置版本，所以并不是说起步价就是 $132,000。我们会有一个仍然偏贵的版本，但在任何优惠之前，明年大概是 $75k，加上各种优惠之类的差不多是 $65k。所以还是贵，但没有 $132k 那么疯狂。然后再过几年我们应该会推出 Model 3，起步价将是 $35,000。虽然是一辆小一点的车，但价格亲民得多。
HostOkay, so for the Tesla sort of real efficient aficionados who follow you on Twitter, you need to answer one thing, which is last week somebody tweeted at you I think about the X, and then you put out a tweet that mentioned the Y and the 3, and then you deleted the tweet. And everybody wants to know why you deleted the tweet and what the tweet actually said.好，对于那些在 Twitter 上密切关注你的 Tesla 真爱粉，你需要回答一件事：上周有人在 Twitter 上 @ 你，我记得是关于 Model X 的，然后你发了一条提到 Model Y 和 Model 3 的推文，然后你把那条推文删了。所有人都想知道你为什么删推，以及那条推文到底说了什么。
Elon MuskI think it just said something like there'll be the Model 3 and the Model Y, and that one of them will have like a falcon door, which is pretty obviously the Model Y. But I deleted that and like I don't know a dozen other tweets because I felt it had like kind of a rambling Twitter history. But it had no significance, the delete has no significance. Like I don't think deleting a tweet makes it go away from the internet or something.我想那条推文大概说的是会有 Model 3 和 Model Y，其中一款会有鹰翼门，明显就是 Model Y。但我把那条和另外大概十几条推文都删了，因为我觉得我的 Twitter 历史看起来太杂乱了。但那没什么意义，删推这件事本身没有任何含义。我又不觉得删了一条推文它就从互联网上消失了。
HostSo why delete the tweet?那为什么要删呢？
Elon MuskI just didn't like the way my Twitter history looked, it was like too rambling.我就是不喜欢我 Twitter 历史的样子，感觉太杂乱了。
HostYou've invested in Twitter. I'm in Twitter, in Tesla.你投资了 Twitter。我自己在 Twitter 上，在 Tesla 上也有。
Sam AltmanYeah, you own a Tesla.是的，你有一辆 Tesla。
HostMake the case for those who are out there. You, I make it harder because he has to do it now: why, what is this going to become in your mind?为那些还在观望的人说说。我把它变难了，因为他得现在回答：为什么，在你心里这个公司最终会成为什么？
Elon MuskYou sure you don't want him to answer?你确定不想让他来回答吗？
HostYeah, we know what he's going to say.是的，我们知道他要说什么。
Sam AltmanLook, I mean I think as most people who own one think, it's the best car out there. I had a Roadster before, a Tesla Roadster, which was not the best car, but the Model S really is, it's just the best car on the market. And I think that people think of this like existing car companies, but actually this is like a software company with a car attached to it. And you just like sort of point and click, you point the wheel somewhere, you push the thing down and it just kind of gets there. It doesn't make noise, it's very reliable, the software actually works, it's the only car with good software. So I think people really like it. Now yeah, it's like really expensive still, but I'm confident that a mass market Tesla will do very well. And I also think the other electric cars I've driven feel like many years behind.听着，我的意思是，就像大多数车主的感受一样，它是目前最好的车。我之前有辆 Tesla Roadster，那辆车并不是最好的车，但 Model S 真的是，就是目前市面上最好的车。我认为人们把它想成现有的汽车公司，但实际上这更像是一家附带了一辆车的软件公司。你就这样点点拨一下，踩下去，车就到了那里。它不发出噪音，非常可靠，软件真的好用，它是唯一一辆软件好用的车。所以我认为人们真的很喜欢它。当然它目前还是挺贵的，但我相信面向大众市场的 Tesla 会非常成功。而且我开过的其他电动车感觉都落后好多年。
HostYou talked about this being a software company. Do you think of yourself as a software company?你谈到这是一家软件公司。你把自己定位为一家软件公司吗？
Elon MuskI think we're a software and a hardware company, but the software component does become increasingly important, so you got to get both right, because it's a holistic product experience. But software is increasingly an increasing proportion of the problem, particularly as you get to autonomy.我认为我们是一家软硬件兼顾的公司，但软件部分变得越来越重要，所以你必须两者兼顾，因为这是一个整体的产品体验。但软件在问题中占据的比重越来越高，尤其是当你走向自动驾驶的时候。
HostSo there is a view, I don't know if it's a conspiracy theory, that you are building autonomous functionality and other driverless-like functionality into the car without advertising that it's in there, and that one day you're going to flip a switch and the car is going to start just driving.有一种观点——我不知道算不算阴谋论——说你正在悄悄地在车里构建自动驾驶功能和其他类似无人驾驶的功能，没有对外宣传，然后有一天你会按下一个开关，车就开始自己跑了。
Elon MuskWell, no, not quite like that, but we are going to upload new software soon, and this is not actually a secret or anything. We have version seven of our software which turns on highway autopilot, so the car will be able to steer by itself on highways, or any kind of road that doesn't have really steep sharp curves on it, and then also it'll steer quite well in traffic. So those are the two scenarios where it's going to be quite good at steering, and that's in public beta right now, so we have I don't know 600 or 700 Tesla owners that are testing the autosteer software.嗯，不完全是那样，但我们确实很快要推送新软件，这实际上不是什么秘密。我们有第七版软件，会开启高速公路自动驾驶功能——车可以在高速公路上，或者任何没有特别陡峭急转弯的道路上自动转向，同时在交通拥堵中也能很好地自动转向。这两种场景下转向效果会相当好，目前这个功能已经进入公开测试阶段，我们有大概 600 到 700 名 Tesla 车主正在测试自动转向软件。
Sam AltmanI think full self-driving cars, and not Tesla specifically, just in general, are likely to get here much more quickly than people realize. Yeah, you ask most people they'd still say it's 10 to 20 years away, and I actually think we'll have sort of like full point-to-point autonomous driving in a few years, it won't be uncommon.我认为完全自动驾驶汽车——不特指 Tesla，只是总体而言——到来的速度很可能比人们意识到的要快得多。大多数人现在还会说还需要 10 到 20 年，但我实际上认为几年内我们就会有那种从出发点到目的地全程自主驾驶的能力，而且不会罕见。
Elon MuskFew years like two or three years.几年，就是两三年那种。
Sam AltmanThree or four maybe, you know better.也许三四年，你比我更了解这个。
Elon MuskI agree, I think that's something on the two to three year time frame is likely for it to be technologically, I mean you'll be able to demonstrate it, but you won't be able to go to fully autonomous until you get regulatory approval. So there's a time difference between when it is technologically possible, in a general sense, you know, not just like in a very tightly mapped situation like say Mountain View or Palo Alto, but in the general sense of like can it do point to point virtually anywhere. I think that's only two to three years away. But then approval from regulators of having it be autonomous is anywhere from I don't know one to five years after that depending upon the location, because the regulators have to be convinced that it is substantially, I think they'll want to see that it's significantly safer than cars that are driven by people.我同意，我认为在技术层面上——就是说你能够演示出来——大概是两到三年内可以实现的事情，但在技术上可行和获得监管批准之间有一段时间差，你没办法在拿到监管批准之前就做到完全自主驾驶。从技术上可行——不是在 Mountain View 或 Palo Alto 这种被严格绘图的特定场景，而是真正意义上的任意点到点导航——到这个时间点，我认为也就两到三年。但监管机构批准自主驾驶，在那之后要再花一到五年不等，具体取决于地点，因为监管机构需要被说服，我认为他们会希望看到它比人类驾驶显著更安全。
HostI want to open it up in about 5 minutes, so I just have a couple more questions to get to you. And so if you guys have a question in the audience, get your shot on goal in just a second. I want to talk about entrepreneurship, because both of you are entrepreneurs, you invest in them, you are one, and you think about this a lot. Your old pal Peter Thiel likes to say that he would not invest in somebody who's over the age of 30 years old, that that should be the cutoff. You're 44 now, he's invested in you, I guess make some exception, but you may be the exception to the rule. As somebody who invests in companies every day, do you think there's a cutoff? There's a lot of people out here who are over the age of 30, are we done?大约 5 分钟后我要开放观众提问，所以我还有几个问题要问你们。如果观众席中有人想提问，请过一会儿准备好。我想聊创业，因为你们两位都是创业者，你投资他们，你自己就是其中之一，你们也都在深入思考这件事。你的老朋友 Peter Thiel 喜欢说他不会投资 30 岁以上的人，30 岁应该是截止线。你今年 44 岁，他投资了你，我猜做了些例外，但你可能是这条规则的例外。作为一个每天都在投资公司的人，你认为有年龄截止吗？这里有很多 30 岁以上的人，我们完了吗？
Sam AltmanI mean we've said this before, but when we've looked at our data, the mean age of entrepreneurs we fund is just around 29 or 30. So there's obviously lots of over-30 entrepreneurs that we fund, some of which have gone on to create multi-billion dollar companies. So I think certainly you can't say it's impossible for people over 30 to create companies, that's ridiculous, and we plan to continue to invest in people of all ages. The correlation that we've noticed is that if you look at the really successful companies we've had, the multi-billion dollar companies, the average age for those founders does skew significantly younger. But the success rate of founders, you know, this binary, is the company a success or not, doesn't skew older than 30. So you know younger entrepreneurs I think tend to take bigger risks, maybe they're willing to work on these very long-time-horizon projects, but that's the only correlation we see. I think it would be a crazy strategy to say I'm never going to invest in anyone over 30.我们之前说过，当我们看数据的时候，我们投资的创业者平均年龄大概在 29 到 30 岁左右。所以我们资助了很多 30 岁以上的创业者，其中一些人后来创建了估值数十亿美元的公司。所以我认为你肯定不能说 30 岁以上就不可能创业，那太荒唐了，我们也打算继续投资各个年龄的人。我们注意到的一个相关性是，如果你看我们投出的真正成功的公司——那些估值数十亿美元的公司——这些创始人的平均年龄确实明显更年轻一些。但从创始人的成功率来看——那种二元判断，公司算不算成功——并没有明显偏向 30 岁以上。所以你知道，年轻创业者我认为倾向于承担更大的风险，也许他们愿意投入这些非常长期的项目，但这是我们看到的唯一相关性。我认为说我绝不投资 30 岁以上的人，这会是一个疯狂的策略。
Elon MuskYeah, no I mean I don't think Peter meant that either. I mean you can definitely start a company at any age and be successful. It's really just a question of like, do you have a good idea, are you working really hard, are you able to attract a great team and motivate the team. That's sort of really what matters.是的，我的意思是，我认为 Peter 也不是那个意思。你绝对可以在任何年龄创办公司并取得成功。真正重要的其实就是：你有没有一个好想法，你是否非常努力地在工作，你能不能吸引到一支出色的团队并激励他们。这才是真正重要的东西。
HostBut you've had multiple ideas, and there's another view by the way, which is that you can only really have one great idea, that everybody sort of has maybe one great idea.但你有过多个好想法，而且还有另一种观点，说人一生可能只有一个真正伟大的想法，每个人大概就只有一个伟大的想法。
Elon MuskIt's not really the idea, you know, I mean there's that old saying it's 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. I think it's generally true. I mean a lot of times companies start out with an idea that's actually wrong, but they adapt quickly enough to get it to something that's right. And I can say like at the beginning of Tesla we started the company with two false premises, that would turn out to be like really dumb. One was that we'd be able to license the drivetrain technology from a company called AC Propulsion in Southern California and that it would just work, that totally didn't work. And then we also thought we'd be able to adapt the Lotus Elise chassis at low cost, and be able to essentially put the AC Propulsion drivetrain technology in a Lotus Elise chassis and then just build that quickly and sell it, and that that would be okay. But like I said, the AC Propulsion technology did not lend itself to any kind of cost-effective reliable car, it was okay for like a small prototype but not for a commercial product. And then the Lotus Elise, that ended up worse than if we had designed a car from the beginning, because we ended up changing like 96% of the components in the car, and invalidating all of the crash results and all the safety stuff. The car ended up being 30% heavier, had to be longer. And it ended up being like, if you had a house in mind and instead of actually building that house from scratch you got some existing house and ended up knocking everything except one wall in the basement out, and it would have been better to just build the house from the beginning, the house you wanted. So basically Tesla was started on the basis of two dumb ideas, but we managed to, it was a tough one to overcome those two issues, but we managed to get past them. So that's I think the more important thing is, start somewhere and then really be prepared to question your assumptions, fix what you did wrong, and adapt to reality.其实关键不在于想法本身。有句老话说，创业是 1% 的灵感加上 99% 的汗水。我认为这大体是对的。很多时候公司一开始的想法其实是错的，但他们适应得足够快，把它调整到对的方向。我可以说，Tesla 最初成立时建立在两个错误的前提上，事后证明真的很蠢。一是我们以为能从南加州一家叫 AC Propulsion 的公司获得电动传动系统的许可，以为那套系统直接能用——结果完全不行。二是我们还以为能以低成本改装 Lotus Elise 的车架，基本上就是把 AC Propulsion 的传动技术装进 Lotus Elise 车身，然后快速量产销售，以为这样就行了。但正如我所说，AC Propulsion 那套技术根本无法用于任何成本有效、可靠的量产车，用于小型原型机还行，但不适合商业产品。然后 Lotus Elise 的情况比我们从零设计一辆车还糟糕，因为我们最终更换了车上 96% 的零部件，使得所有碰撞测试结果和安全数据全部作废。车最终重了 30%，还得加长。最后的结果就像——如果你脑子里有一栋房子，与其从这栋现有的房子改造，除了地下室的一面墙什么都敲掉，还不如从头开始建你想要的那栋房子。所以 Tesla 基本上是建立在两个蠢主意上起步的，但我们设法克服了，虽然那两个问题很难解决，但我们最终都过来了。所以我认为更重要的是：先从某个地方开始，然后真正准备好质疑自己的假设，修正错误，适应现实。
HostHow did you run two companies at the same time? Jack Dorsey is about to take this on in a meaningful way. What does a day in the life of Elon Musk actually look like?你是怎么同时经营两家公司的？Jack Dorsey 就要以一种重要的方式承担同样的挑战了。Elon Musk 的一天实际上是什么样子？
Elon MuskYeah, I wouldn't recommend running two companies. This really decreases your freedom quite a lot. And I'll tell you what, so my day is probably a bit different than people think it is. Most of my time is actually spent on engineering and design, so that's probably I don't know like 70% of my time. Press stuff like this is maybe two or 3% of my time, it's really really tiny, and I'm going to reduce it even further, it's probably like 1% of my time.是的，我不建议同时经营两家公司。这会大幅压缩你的自由度。告诉你，我的日子可能跟大家想象的不太一样。我大部分时间实际上花在工程和设计上，大概占我时间的 70% 左右。像这种媒体活动大概占我时间的 2% 到 3%，真的非常非常少，而且我还要进一步压缩，可能降到 1% 左右。
HostSo real quick and then we'll go to the audience, politics. I want to ask you two political questions. One is innovation in politics: when do you think there'll ever be a day where we actually vote on our phone? We stupidly seem to still go and vote in our local district, oftentimes at a local school. And I also wanted to get your sense of who out there you may or may not like right now in terms of what you guys do and who you think might do the best.好，再快速问一个，然后我们开放观众提问。政治。我想问你们两个政治问题。一是政治上的创新：你们觉得什么时候我们终于能在手机上投票？我们愚蠢地似乎还在跑到本地选区投票，很多时候是在当地的学校。我也想听听你们目前对哪些政治人物有好感或没好感，你们认为谁可能做得最好。
Sam AltmanAll right, I'll take the first question, Elon can answer the second. Trump's amazing. I think that yes, we will someday vote on our phones. I think it will have a significant impact because it'll really change the people who vote. So I think that may take a while because there are a lot of people who don't want to see the electorate change. But you know over a 20-year time frame, I always try to think about things over these sort of 10 or 20 year time frames. I think you can get so caught up in what's happening this month or next year, are we in a bubble, are we buying at a low tick or a high tick, but eventually it's going to happen and I take solace in that.好，第一个问题我来答，第二个让 Elon 答。Trump 太了不起了——开玩笑。我认为是的，我们某天一定会在手机上投票。我认为这会产生重大影响，因为它会真正改变投票人的构成。所以我认为这可能需要一段时间，因为有很多人不想看到选民结构发生变化。但你知道，在 20 年的时间框架内——我总是尽量以这种 10 年或 20 年的时间框架来思考问题——我认为你很容易陷入本月或明年发生了什么、我们是不是在泡沫里、我们是在高点还是低点买入，但最终它一定会发生，我在这一点上找到了慰藉。
HostAnyway, Elon, on Donald Trump.好了，Elon，关于 Donald Trump。
Sam AltmanYeah, he asked you.是的，他问的是你。
Elon MuskI mean, and I don't really have strong feelings except that hopefully Trump doesn't get the nomination of the Republican party, because I think that wouldn't be good.我其实没有强烈的感受，只是希望 Trump 别拿到共和党的提名，因为我认为那不是好事。
HostBarry Diller said he would move out of the country. What about you, really?Barry Diller 说他要移出这个国家。你呢，认真的？
Elon MuskNo, I would, I mean I think like at most he would get the Republican nomination, but I think that would still be a bit embarrassing. So I think that could happen.不，我的意思是，最多他可能拿到共和党提名，但我认为那多少还是会让人尴尬的。所以我觉得这有可能发生。
HostYou think it will happen?你认为会发生吗？
Elon MuskIt could, it won't surprise me if it does. I honestly don't have strong feelings about it.有可能，如果发生了我也不会惊讶。说实话我对这件事真的没有强烈的感受。
HostDo you get involved in politics?你有涉足政治吗？
Elon MuskI get involved in politics as little as possible. There's some amount that I have to get involved in, mostly because SpaceX has to battle Boeing and Lockheed, you know, for national security and civil space launch contracts. So if we don't battle them, then they will, we'll lose.我尽可能少地涉足政治。有一定程度是我不得不参与的，主要是因为 SpaceX 必须和 Boeing 及 Lockheed 竞争国家安全和民用航天发射合同。如果我们不去争，我们就会输掉。
HostHow corrupt is that whole thing?这整件事有多腐败？
Elon MuskYeah, well I mean, actually I would say that on balance I guess it's not that corrupt, because if it was corrupt then SpaceX would have no chance. Because SpaceX, I mean it's gotten a bit bigger these days, but it was very tiny when we won our first government contract, and if it had been like deeply corrupt then we would not have won anything. So I think actually, the greater the level of visibility politically, the less corruption occurs. So I think there's actually probably like the least corruption at the presidential level, than at the Senate level and the House, and then there can be a bit more corruption at the state level. It's like basically how much attention are people paying, that defines how much corruption occurs.是的，不过说实话，综合来看我觉得其实没那么腐败，因为如果真的很腐败，SpaceX 就根本没机会了。SpaceX——这些年长大了不少——但我们赢得第一份政府合同的时候非常小，如果当时体制深度腐败的话，我们就什么都拿不到了。所以我认为实际上，政治曝光度越高，腐败发生得越少。我认为总统层面的腐败实际上可能是最少的，然后是参议院层面、众议院层面，再往下州层面可能腐败会多一些。就是说，有多少人在关注，就决定了会发生多少腐败。
HostPerhaps. And we'll open up too, but it got me thinking, the only real big critique of some of your businesses is that they are subsidized to some degree by the government. Could these businesses succeed without government help?也许吧。我们等一下也会开放提问，但这让我想到，对你的一些业务唯一真正重大的批评是它们在某种程度上享受了政府补贴。这些企业没有政府扶持能成功吗？
Elon MuskYeah, absolutely. And I should at some point probably write a rebuttal, because there was like a nonsensical LA Times article from which a lot of this stems. Because what the LA Times article did was add up all incentives that Tesla has received and all incentives that Tesla will receive, so like over a 30-year period, and made it sound like a big number. But it's, you know, like if somebody's earning $50,000 a year, you don't call them a millionaire because over the next 20 years they will cumulatively earn a million dollars. But that's effectively what that article did. The incentives I think for Tesla and Solar City, what they really do is balance out the actual and de facto incentives that carbon-producing activities have. And I don't think they actually balance it out, so the carbon-producing activities still sort of overwhelm the incentives that electric cars and solar receive. I mean for example there's a 20% tax incentive for stripper oil wells, and the incentive for solar is currently 30% but dropping to 10% in two years. So you know, in two years the incentive for solar power will be half that of a stripper oil well. And SpaceX made it in spite of Boeing and Lockheed receiving a billion-dollar-plus subsidy for the launch activities. So I think in the case of SpaceX it was sort of success in spite of incentives, and in the case of Solar City and Tesla, the incentives were moderately helpful but not the deciding factor. They're a catalyst, they made things happen a little faster than they would otherwise happen. But you look at something like the $7,500 tax credit for EVs, okay so that ends up being a 10% discount that the consumer receives for buying the car, it's not like a night and day difference.完全可以。我应该在某个时候写一篇反驳文章，因为有一篇无稽的《洛杉矶时报》文章是这一切的源头。那篇文章把 Tesla 已经获得的和将来会获得的所有激励措施加在一起——跨度 30 年——然后让它看起来是个大数字。但这就好比，如果一个人每年挣 $50,000，你不会因为他未来 20 年累积会挣一百万就叫他百万富翁。但那篇文章实际上就是这么干的。Tesla 和 Solar City 所获得的激励措施，它们真正的作用是抵消碳排放活动实际享有的、以及事实上存在的激励。而且我认为它们根本没能平衡过去——碳排放活动得到的激励仍然远远超过电动汽车和太阳能获得的支持。比如说，页岩油抽采有 20% 的税收优惠，而太阳能的激励目前是 30%，但两年后会降至 10%。所以两年后太阳能的激励将只有页岩油井的一半。而 SpaceX 是在 Boeing 和 Lockheed 获得超过十亿美元发射补贴的情况下拼出来的。所以我认为 SpaceX 的案例是不靠补贴的成功，而 Solar City 和 Tesla 的案例是激励措施有一定帮助，但并非决定性因素。它们是催化剂，让事情比否则发生得稍微快一点。但你看看那 $7,500 的电动汽车税收抵免，这对消费者来说相当于购车时打了个 9 折，并不是天翻地覆的差别。
HostOkay, we got a lot of people who are standing and we want to get to all the questions. We're going to sort of try to do this rapid fire, so I'd ask you to keep your question short, and these guys are going to keep their answers short as well, at least we're going to hope.好，有很多人站着举手，我们希望尽量多答一些问题。我们来快速轮，请大家把问题说简短，这两位也会尽量简短回答，至少我们希望如此。
Bruce GoldmanHi, my name is Bruce Goldman, I'm a private investor in Toronto, Canada, and Elon, if you're not happy with the next election you're more than welcome to come back to Canada. Question is about artificial intelligence. Like any good new technology, people always fear the change and things that can go wrong. I was wondering if Sam and Elon could share with us their positive vision of AI's impact on our coming life.嗨，我叫 Bruce Goldman，我是加拿大多伦多的私人投资者，Elon，如果你对下次选举不满意，非常欢迎你回加拿大。问题是关于人工智能的。就像任何好的新技术一样，人们总是害怕变化和可能出错的事情。我想请 Sam 和 Elon 与我们分享他们对 AI 对我们即将到来的生活积极影响的展望。
HostRight, we didn't even get to AI in this whole conversation.对，我们整场对话竟然都没聊到 AI。
Sam AltmanYeah, I think look, there is a really positive vision here. I think there are the science fiction version is either that we enslave it or it enslaves us, but there's this happy symbiotic vision, which I don't think is the default case but what we should work towards. I think already humans and AI are co-evolving and no one's paid attention to this yet, but I don't think there's any human left that understands all of how Google search results are ranked on that first page, it really is a machine learning algorithm. So when we search on Google, it's an AI deciding what we should see. When a dating site matches two people together, there's a machine learning algorithm that no human understands how it works that is getting people together that then have babies. And so in effect you have this like machine learning algorithm breeding humans. And then those people work on the algorithms later. So I think the happy vision of the future is sort of humans and AI in a symbiotic relationship, distributed AI where it sort of empowers a lot of different individuals, not this single AI that kind of governs everything that we all do, that's a million times smarter than any other entity. So I think that's what we should work towards.是的，我认为这里确实有一个非常正面的愿景。科幻小说版本要么是我们奴役它，要么是它奴役我们，但还有一种快乐共生的愿景——我认为这不是默认情况，但是我们应该努力走向的方向。我认为人类和 AI 已经在共同演化，只是还没有人注意到这一点。我不认为现在还有哪个人类完整理解 Google 搜索结果第一页的排序方式，那真的是一个机器学习算法。所以当我们在 Google 搜索时，是一个 AI 在决定我们该看到什么。当一个交友网站将两个人匹配在一起时，是一个没有任何人完整理解的机器学习算法把他们撮合在一起，然后他们会有孩子。所以实际上你有这样一个机器学习算法在培育人类。然后这些人后来又去研究这些算法。所以我认为未来幸福的愿景是人类和 AI 处于一种共生关系中，是一种分布式 AI——它赋能很多不同的个体，而不是某个单一的 AI 统治我们所有人所做的一切、比其他任何实体都聪明一百万倍的那种。我认为这才是我们应该努力的方向。
Elon MuskI agree with what Sam said. I mean we are effectively already a human-machine collective symbiote, like we're like a giant cyborg, that's actually what society is today. But I'm going to obviously have an affinity for the human portion of that cyborg collective. And I do think we need to be careful about the development of AI and make sure it is ultimately beneficial to humanity, that the future is good.我同意 Sam 说的。我们实际上已经是一个人机集体共生体了，就像一个巨型赛博格，这实际上就是当今社会的样子。但我显然会对这个赛博格集体的人类部分更有感情。我确实认为我们需要谨慎对待 AI 的发展，确保它最终对人类有益，让未来是美好的。
HostGood question over here. Okay.好问题，这边来。好的。
JessicaSo not too long ago, oh my name is Jessica by the way, but not too long ago on the Nightly Show with Larry Wilmore they had Bill Nye the Science Guy on there discussing the new Mars discovery, and the other panelists basically said that our society doesn't care about the scientific discoveries of NASA. And how does innovation, what does that mean in a society that only values the results, like the final products like a car or like finally going to space, and not really valuing the process of getting there?就在不久前——哦，顺便说一下我叫 Jessica——在 Larry Wilmore 的《夜间秀》上，他们邀请了 Bill Nye the Science Guy 来讨论最新的火星发现，而其他嘉宾基本上说我们的社会并不关心 NASA 的科学发现。那么创新——在一个只看重结果、只看重像汽车或最终飞向太空这样的最终产品、而并不真正重视到达那里过程的社会里——意味着什么？
Elon MuskWell, I mean I do think that there is, I'm not sure I agree with that. I think we do value discovery and new things and learning about the universe. I mean there was quite a bit of attention paid to the discovery of water flowing on Mars. I'd certainly say that it should be more, but I think it's okay, I think it's not bad, I think we're better off than the show would suggest.我不确定我同意那种说法。我认为我们确实重视发现、新事物以及了解宇宙。关于火星上发现液态水流动这件事确实受到了相当多的关注。我当然会说应该给予更多关注，但我觉得还好，没有那么糟，我们比那个节目所暗示的要好一些。
HostOkay, we're going to try to get everybody up there if we can, so go ahead.好，我们尽量让每个人都能提问，请继续。
OtherQuestion for Elon. I understand that the hyperloop was inspired by your opinions about California's High-Speed Rail, and could you share those opinions as well as a bit about the hyperloop?Elon 的问题。我了解到 Hyperloop 的灵感来源于你对加州高铁的看法，能分享一下你的那些看法，以及关于 Hyperloop 的一些介绍吗？
Elon MuskYeah, if we're to have some new form of transport in California, which I think would be good to have, then we want to aspire to have something that is cutting-edge technology. And when I was reading about the high-speed rail plan, it's a lot of money for something which isn't obviously compelling relative to a car or a plane in terms of the time it would take to complete the journey, and it will saddle California taxpayers with a pretty significant amount of money that they got to pay. So it's like if you pay a high price you should have a great outcome, like that should be the sensible thing, and that doesn't seem to be what is happening from what I can tell. And so I was trying to think well what would be the fastest way you could get from say LA to San Francisco, or cities in between. And I ended up mentioning that I had an idea, actually had a tour not unlike this, and then discovered my initial idea didn't work, and then kept iterating with a bunch of other people, and came up with a hyperloop. So that's sort of where it finally did work from a technical standpoint. And now there are some companies pursuing that, which is awesome, and I hope we see it come to fruition. SpaceX is doing a hyperloop student competition where teams will compete to see who can make the best pod. And so we're doing a sort of a mile-long hyperloop section in LA, just right near SpaceX, really Hawthorne technically but LA County. And so I think that's going to be pretty exciting to see what the students can come up with, and who can come up with the most advanced pod design. I think we're going to set it so that the winner would be who can get their pod to go the fastest within a one-mile section, and then have like a big crash area at the end. So if the pod doesn't slow down in time it can sort of get into the crash area. I think that'll be quite an exciting competition.是的，如果我们要在加利福尼亚州建立某种新型交通方式——我认为这是好事——那么我们应该有志于建造一个处于技术前沿的东西。当我读到高铁计划时，花了大量的钱，相比汽车或飞机，完成旅程所需的时间并没有明显优势，而且这将让加州纳税人背上相当可观的债务。所以就是说，如果你付出了高昂的代价，你应该得到一个出色的结果，这才合情合理，但从我能了解到的情况来看，这并不是正在发生的事情。所以我开始思考，从 LA 到旧金山，或者中间的城市，最快的方式是什么。我最终提到我有一个想法——其实当时也是在类似这样的一个巡回活动中——然后发现我最初的想法行不通，然后继续和其他很多人反复迭代，最终提出了 Hyperloop。所以这大概就是它最终在技术层面能够成立的过程。现在有一些公司在追求这个方向，这太棒了，我希望能看到它实现。SpaceX 正在举办一个 Hyperloop 学生竞赛，各支团队将竞争谁能做出最好的舱体。我们在 LA 建造了一段大约一英里长的 Hyperloop 测试段，就在 SpaceX 附近，严格说是在 Hawthorne，但属于 LA County。我认为看看学生们能想出什么将会非常令人兴奋，看谁能做出最先进的舱体设计。我们打算这样设定规则：获胜者是谁能在一英里的路段内让自己的舱体跑得最快，然后末端设有一个大型缓冲减速区。如果舱体没能及时减速，可以冲进减速区里。我认为那将是一场相当激动人心的竞赛。
HostWe had a couple more seconds, we'll grab it, thank you.还有几秒钟，我们再接一个，谢谢。
BishHello, my name is Bish, I'm a computer science student at Stanford. And so far, the vast majority of startups we heard here today, or the ones we hear on the news, are brilliant innovations on business models that are supported by technology. But on the other hand, the ones that are based on true technical innovations are kind of limited, that we have a few examples here. I want to ask Sam, why do you think that might be the case? And as a follow-up to that, to Elon, do you think you'll be able to successfully build Tesla or SpaceX if they were your first ventures and if you were looking for funding for them out there?大家好，我叫 Bish，我是斯坦福大学计算机科学系的学生。到目前为止，我们今天在这里听到的绝大多数创业公司，或者我们在新闻上听到的，都是由技术支撑的商业模式上的精彩创新。但另一方面，那些基于真正技术创新的公司相当有限，我们这里有几个例子。我想问 Sam，你觉得这是为什么？作为后续问题，Elon，如果 Tesla 或 SpaceX 是你的第一次创业，你当时去外面找融资，你认为你能成功把它建起来吗？
Sam AltmanSo I think that a lot of people talk about how, you know, no one's working on anything interesting, we're all just doing software, the world is like really shitty, it's getting worse, it's the end of progress, and I've never agreed with this. I think a two-part answer. One, I actually think we're on an incredible pace of innovation. What's happening, as what happens historically, is that when there's a great opportunity, sort of talent sloshes around and finds that, and there's been incredible progress in software in the last couple of decades, there will be more, and so a lot of talented people are choosing to work on it. But that doesn't mean we're not making progress, it just means this one area is like transforming the world incredibly quickly. People are doing other things as well, as you mentioned, and you know at Y Combinator we fund companies doing a lot of things. Here's the issue: the press loves to write about the software companies, and they have very little interest in writing about the other stuff. And so as an outsider you would say well there's only software, but that just doesn't reflect reality. You know, we fund companies doing all sorts of things, and I think we love funding tech, we love funding technological innovation on a long time scale, the press does not love covering it. And also I think there's nothing wrong with working on software.我认为很多人说，你知道没有人在做任何有意思的事情，我们都只是在做软件，世界真的很糟糕，越来越差，这是进步的终结——我从来不同意这种说法。我的回答分两部分。第一，我实际上认为我们正处于一个令人难以置信的创新步伐当中。正如历史上一再发生的那样，当有一个巨大的机会出现时，人才会涌向那里，过去几十年里软件领域取得了难以置信的进步，还会有更多，所以很多有才华的人选择投身其中。但这并不意味着我们在其他方面没有进步，只是意味着这个领域正在以令人难以置信的速度改变世界。人们也在做其他事情，正如你提到的，在 Y Combinator 我们投资了很多不同领域的公司。问题在于：媒体喜欢写软件公司的故事，而对其他领域几乎没有兴趣。所以从外界看来你会说只有软件，但这根本不反映现实。我们资助各种各样的公司，我们热爱投资技术、投资长时间尺度上的技术创新，但媒体并不喜欢报道这些。此外，我认为做软件本身没有任何问题。
Elon MuskYeah, I think SpaceX and Tesla are probably not the ideal companies to have as the first thing, generally because if something is capital intensive it's really hard to get going.是的，我认为 SpaceX 和 Tesla 大概不是作为第一次创业的理想选择，主要是因为资本密集型的东西真的很难从零启动。
HostIs it true that you totally ran out of money supporting those two companies?你当年真的把钱全烧光了撑那两家公司，这是真的吗？
Elon MuskYeah.是的。
HostWow, so I guess that would not have been a good first?哇，所以我猜那不会是一个好的第一次创业选择？
Elon MuskNo. I mean the thought I had in the beginning was, I'm not really an investor, I just like basically invest in the companies that I help create. And I thought, you know, coming out of PayPal, I said I thought I'd invest like half the money in SpaceX and Tesla and Solar City, and then I'd still have the other half left over. Except that doesn't really work out, because then the recession of 2008 and 2009 came along, and it was a choice of either invest everything or the companies would definitely die. So it's like if I invest everything then they might live, and if I don't invest everything then they're definitely going to die. So ended up investing everything, and it was real tight actually. In fact like the Tesla financing round at the end of 2008, I remember quite well because we closed that financing round on the last hour of the last day that was possible, it was 6:00 p.m. Christmas Eve 2008, and we would have gone bankrupt like 2 days after Christmas if we hadn't closed that round. Yeah, that was hard.不会。我当初的想法是，我不太算一个投资者，我基本上只是投资我参与创建的公司。我当时想，从 PayPal 出来之后，我大概会把一半的钱投进 SpaceX、Tesla 和 Solar City，然后另一半留着。但事情并不是那样运转的，因为 2008、2009 年的经济衰退来了，那时候要么把所有钱都投进去，要么公司肯定会死。就是说：如果我把所有钱都投进去，它们可能活下来；如果我不这么做，它们一定会死。所以最后把所有钱都押进去了，那段时间真的非常紧张。其实 Tesla 2008 年底的那轮融资，我记得非常清楚，因为我们在最后一刻成功关账，是 2008 年圣诞夜晚上 6 点，如果那轮没关上，我们大概会在圣诞节后两天破产。是的，那真的很难熬。
HostOkay, we got to wrap up. Final question for both of you, but I'm going to start with Elon with this. Your pal Larry Page once said that rather than give all of his money to charity, he would prefer to give all of his money to you. He might have changed his mind. So my question for both of you is, where do you want to, who would you give all of your money to, or what would you give all of your money to?好，我们得收尾了。最后一个问题给你们两位，但我先从 Elon 开始。你的朋友 Larry Page 曾经说过，与其把钱捐给慈善机构，他宁愿把所有的钱给你。他可能改主意了。那么我的问题是，你们两位愿意把所有的钱给谁，或者用来做什么？
Elon MuskWell, I mean my expectation is, I want to sort of continue the path of establishing a self-sustaining city on Mars, I think that's an important thing that needs to happen. And then also sustainable energy, sustainable transport, and then education, and Pediatric Healthcare. Those are like the areas that, that's essentially where all my money is going.我的期望是，我想继续走在火星上建立一个自我维持的城市这条路上，我认为这是必须发生的重要事情。然后是可持续能源、可持续交通，以及教育和儿童医疗健康。这些就是我的资金基本上要流向的方向。
Sam AltmanSort of the good thing about Y Combinator is I get to pour all of my money back into the technologies I believe in, so I would keep doing that.Y Combinator 的好处就是我可以把我所有的钱都重新投入我所相信的那些技术，所以我会继续这样做。
HostAnd Larry Page will give your money to you. Elon Musk, Sam Altman, thank you guys.然后 Larry Page 会把他的钱给你。Elon Musk，Sam Altman，谢谢两位。