Larry FinkHow many quotes are you going to want that are after this session?这场会议结束后，你想要几句引语？
Elon MuskI don’t know, five, haha!我不知道，五句吧，哈哈！
Larry FinkGood afternoon everyone, it’s great to see everybody here. It has been an amazing week. Thrilled Elon Musk come from California. Thank you, Elon.大家下午好，很高兴见到各位。这一周真是太精彩了。非常高兴 Elon Musk 从加利福尼亚赶来。谢谢你，Elon。
Elon MuskYou’re most welcome. I heard about the formation of the Peace Summit, and it’s like, is that P-I-E-C-E, a little piece? Haha. Or Greenland? A little piece of Venezuela? All we want is peace.不客气。我听说了"和平峰会"的成立，就想——那个"和平"（peace）是 P-I-E-C-E，一小块的意思吗？哈哈。还是格陵兰？一小块委内瑞拉？我们要的只是和平（peace）嘛。
Larry FinkOkay. As they said, I’m pretty proud CEO BlackRock. Since we went public, the compounding return of BlackRock to our shareholders was 21%. Since Elon took Tesla public, his compounded return is 43%. This is just another advertisement for everybody, especially for Europeans. This is why more citizens should be investing with growth, investing in their countries. Imagine if a lot of pension funds invested with Elon when Tesla went public, and how much return would be with all the pension funds that invested side-by-side with Elon and the growth. So a spectacular return. There’s very few companies—well, I don’t think there is any other company as large as Tesla today that has compounded returns. Congratulations.好的。正如大家所知，我是 BlackRock 的 CEO，我对此很自豪。自从 BlackRock 上市以来，我们给股东带来的复合回报率是 21%。自 Elon 将 Tesla 带上市以来，他的复合回报率是 43%。这对所有人——尤其是欧洲人——来说是一个很好的示范。这就是为什么更多的民众应该投资于增长、投资于自己的国家。想象一下，如果很多养老基金在 Tesla 上市时就跟着 Elon 一起投资，那么所有与 Elon 并肩投资的养老基金会获得多少回报。真是惊人的回报。很少有公司——说实话，我认为如今没有其他像 Tesla 这么大的公司还能保持这样的复合回报率。恭喜。
Elon MuskWe have an incredible team at Tesla. and so thats the reason!Tesla 拥有一支无与伦比的团队，这就是原因所在！
Larry FinkI want to get into the meaningful component about technology, the possibilities. I want to talk about AI and robotics, energy, space, and the progress ultimately coming down to engineering. Engineering discipline, scale, execution. Few people, if not anyone, has the experience, and the fortitude to confront these issues head-on—not just ideas, but execution across so many different technologies. Elon, that’s why it is important for us to have this dialogue here in Davos. So you are presently building on AI and robotics, space, energy—all at the same time. When you look across those efforts, what do they have in common from an engineering standpoint?我想深入聊聊技术这个意义深远的话题，以及它所蕴含的可能性。我想谈谈 AI 与机器人、能源、太空，以及最终落脚于工程的进步——工程纪律、规模与执行力。几乎没有人，甚至可以说没有任何人，拥有如此丰富的经验，以及正面迎击这些挑战的魄力——不只是停留在想法层面，而是横跨如此多不同技术领域的实际执行。Elon，这就是为什么我们在达沃斯进行这场对话如此重要。你目前同时在推进 AI 与机器人、太空、能源——所有这些都在同时进行。从工程的角度来看，这些努力有什么共同之处？
Elon MuskWell, they’re all very difficult technology challenges. But the overall goal of my companies is to maximize the future of civilization—like basically maximizing the probability that civilization has a great future. And to expand consciousness beyond Earth. S嗯，它们都是极其艰难的技术挑战。但我旗下公司的整体目标是最大化文明的未来——说白了，就是最大化文明拥有美好未来的概率。并且要把意识扩展到地球之外。
Elon Musko if you take SpaceX, for example, SpaceX is about advancing rocket technology to the point where we can extend life and consciousness beyond Earth—to the Moon, Mars, eventually other star systems. I think we should always view consciousness, life, as precarious and delicate. Because to the best of our knowledge, we don’t know if life is anywhere else. You know, I’m often asked, are there aliens among us? And I’ll say that I am one. They don’t believe me.拿 SpaceX 来说，SpaceX 的使命是推进火箭技术，让我们能够把生命和意识延伸到地球之外——到月球、火星，最终到达其他星系。我认为我们应该始终把意识和生命视为脆弱而珍贵的东西。因为就我们所知，我们并不知道其他地方是否存在生命。你知道，人家经常问我：你们中间有外星人吗？我会说，我就是一个。他们不信我。
Elon MuskOkay. So I think if anyone would know there are aliens among us, it would be me. And 9,000 satellites up there, and not once have we had to maneuver around an alien spaceship. So like, I don’t know. Bottom line is, we need to assume that life and consciousness is extremely rare, and it might only be us. And if that’s the case, then we do everything possible to ensure the light of consciousness is not extinguished.好吧。所以我觉得，如果有人能知道我们中间有没有外星人，那个人就是我。我们有 9,000 颗卫星在轨道上运行，但我们从来没有需要绕开过哪艘外星飞船来规避。所以……我也不知道啊。总之，我们必须假设生命和意识极为稀有，也许只有我们这一家。如果真是这样，那我们就要竭尽所能，确保意识之光不被熄灭。
Elon MuskBecause effectively, the image in my mind is of a tiny candle in a vast darkness—tiny candle of consciousness that could easily go out. And that’s why it’s important to make life multiplanetary. Such that if there is a natural disaster or man-made disaster on Earth, that consciousness continues. That’s the purpose of SpaceX.在我脑海中，有一个画面——茫茫黑暗中一根微弱的蜡烛，那是意识之烛，随时可能熄灭。这就是为什么让生命成为多星球物种如此重要。这样，即便地球上发生自然灾害或人为灾难，意识也能延续下去。这就是 SpaceX 存在的意义。
Elon MuskTesla is obviously about sustainable technology. And also at this point, we’ve sort of added to our mission sustainable abundance. So with robotics and AI, this is really the path to abundance for all. If you say, you know, people often talk about solving global poverty, or essentially how do we give everyone a very high standard of living—I think the only way to do this is AI and robotics. Which doesn’t mean that it’s without its issues. We need to be very careful with AI. We need to be very careful with robotics. We don’t want to find ourselves in a James Cameron movie—you know, Terminator. He’s great. Great movies. Love his movies. But well, we don’t want to be in Terminator, obviously.Tesla 显然是关于可持续技术的。而且在这个时间节点，我们在使命中加入了"可持续丰裕"这一理念。借助机器人和 AI，这才是真正通向全人类丰裕的道路。人们经常谈论解决全球贫困，或者说如何让每个人都拥有很高的生活水平——我认为唯一的办法就是 AI 和机器人。这并不意味着没有问题。我们需要对 AI 保持高度警惕，对机器人也一样。我们可不想自己活进詹姆斯·卡梅隆的电影里——你知道，《终结者》。他很厉害，电影很棒，我很喜欢他的电影。但是，我们显然不想活在《终结者》里。
Elon MuskBut if you have ubiquitous AI that is essentially free or close to it, and ubiquitous robotics, then you will have an explosion in the global economy—an expansion in the global economy that is truly beyond all precedent.但如果你拥有无处不在的 AI，而且基本上免费或接近免费，再加上无处不在的机器人，那么全球经济将会爆炸式增长——一场真正史无前例的全球经济扩张。
Larry FinkCan that expansion be broad? Or is it narrow? And how can it be broadened the global economy?这种扩张会是广泛普惠的吗？还是局限于少数人？如何才能让全球经济的增长惠及更多人？
Elon MuskWay to think of it is that if you have a large number of humanoid robots, the economic output is the average productivity per robot times the number of robots. And actually my prediction is in the benign scenario of the future that we will—the robots will actually make so many robots and AI that they will actually saturate all human needs. Meaning you won’t be able to even think of something to ask the robot for at a certain point. Like there would be such an abundance of goods and services. Because my predictions are there’ll be more robots than people.可以这样理解：如果你有大量人形机器人，经济产出就等于每个机器人的平均生产力乘以机器人总数。我的预测是，在未来的乐观情景下，机器人会制造出越来越多的机器人和 AI，最终真正满足所有人类需求——到某个时间点，你甚至想不出还能让机器人再做什么。商品和服务会极度丰裕。我的预测是：机器人的数量将会超过人类。
Larry FinkSo but how do you then have human purpose in that scenario?但在那种情景下，人类的意义和目的感又在哪里呢？
Elon MuskYeah, I mean, you know, there are—nothing’s perfect. But I mean, it is a necessary… Like, you can’t have both. You can’t have work that has to be done and amazing abundance for all. Because if it’s work that has to be done, and only some people can do it, then you can’t have abundance. It’s narrow.是啊，我是说，没有什么是完美的。但这是必然的……你不可能两全其美。你不可能既有"必须有人来做的工作"，又有"全民共享的惊人丰裕"。因为如果有些工作必须要有人做，而且只有部分人能做，那就不可能有真正的丰裕。那就是"窄"的。
Larry FinkNarrow.窄的。
Elon MuskExactly. So but if you have billions of humanoid robots—I think there will be… I think everyone on Earth is going to have one and gonna want one. Because who wouldn’t want a robot to, you know, assuming it’s very safe—watch over your kids, take care of your pet? If you have elderly parents—a lot of friends of mine have elderly parents, it’s very difficult to take care of them. Expensive. Yeah, it’s expensive, and there just aren’t enough people to take care of the old people. So if you—if they had a robot that could take care of and protect elderly parents, I think that would be a great, amazing thing to have. And I think we will have those things. So overall, I’m very optimistic about the future. I think we’re headed for a future of amazing abundance, which is very cool. And definitely we are in the most interesting time in history. I don’t think there is a more interesting time in history!对。但如果你有数十亿台人形机器人——我认为全球每个人都会拥有一台、都想要一台。因为谁不想要一个机器人呢？假设它非常安全——帮你照看孩子、照顾宠物？如果你有年迈的父母——我很多朋友都有老人，照顾他们真的很费劲，很贵。是的，很贵，而且就是没有足够的人来照顾老人。如果他们能有一个机器人来照料和保护年迈的父母，我觉得那将是一件非常了不起的事情。我认为我们一定会拥有这些东西的。总体而言，我对未来非常乐观。我认为我们正在走向一个令人惊叹的丰裕未来，这很酷。而且我们绝对处于历史上最有趣的时代，我认为历史上没有比现在更有趣的时代了！
Elon MuskAGING衰老
Larry FinkCan we reverse aging in this new history? Or are we going to see it?在这段新历史里，我们能逆转衰老吗？还是说我们只能眼睁睁看着？
Elon MuskYou know, haven’t put much time into the aging stuff, but I do think it is a very solvable problem. Like, you can—I think when we figure out what causes aging, I think we’ll find it’s incredibly obvious, that it’s not a subtle thing. The reason I say it’s not a subtle thing is because all the cells in your body pretty much age at the same rate. You have never seen someone with an old left arm and a young right arm ever in my life. So why… You know, there is some benefit to death, by the way. It’s like, there’s a reason why we don’t actually have a longer lifespan. Because if people do live forever or for a very long time, I think there’s some risk of an ossification of society—of things just getting kind of locked in place. And yeah, it just may become stultifying, a lack of vibrancy. But that’s it. Do I think we’ll figure out ways to extend life and maybe even reverse aging? I think that’s highly likely.我在衰老这件事上没花太多时间，但我确实认为这是一个完全可以解决的问题。我觉得，当我们搞清楚衰老的原因时，会发现它非常显而易见，不是什么微妙的东西。我这么说的理由是：你体内所有的细胞以几乎相同的速度衰老。我这一辈子从来没见过一个人的左臂老了、右臂还年轻。所以……你知道，死亡其实是有一定好处的。我们的寿命之所以没有更长，是有原因的。因为如果人真的能永生或者活很久，我觉得社会有可能会僵化——一切就这么凝固下来了。会变得沉闷，缺乏活力。不过话说回来，我认为我们会找到延长寿命、甚至逆转衰老的方法吗？我觉得非常可能。
Larry FinkLooking forward to that. So in the future you talk about—their AI models, autonomous machines, rockets—depends on massive increases of compute, massive increases in energy. Expensive energy, manufacturing scale. What are the bottlenecks to get there? And once again, with all that expenditures, how can we make sure it is broad, not narrow?期待那一天的到来。那么，你谈到的未来——AI 模型、自主机器、火箭——都依赖于算力的大规模提升和能源的大规模需求，而能源价格高昂、制造又需要规模化。这其中的瓶颈在哪里？而且，面对如此巨大的支出，我们如何确保成果是广泛普惠的，而不是狭隘的？
Elon MuskI just think the natural thing will be very broad because AI companies will seek as many customers as they possibly can. And the cost of AI is already low and plummeting every year—almost the cost of AI is meaningfully changing on a month basis.我只是认为，这自然会非常普惠，因为 AI 公司会尽可能地争取更多用户。而且 AI 的成本已经很低，并且每年都在暴跌——AI 的成本几乎每个月都在发生实质性的变化。
Larry FinkThere are open models now everywhere.现在到处都是开源模型了。
Elon MuskYes. Very good open models. The open models only lack what may be a year behind the closed models. So I think, yeah, AI companies will seek as many customers as possible, which means they’ll provide AI to the world.是的，非常优秀的开源模型。开源模型可能只落后闭源模型大约一年。所以我认为，AI 公司会竭力争取尽可能多的用户，这意味着他们会把 AI 提供给全世界。
Larry FinkBut the cost of getting to their compute chips, the fab, power—powering that. To me, what are those? It is a huge factor.但要获取算力芯片、搭建晶圆厂、以及为这些供电——对我来说，这是巨大的成本因素，怎么看？
Elon MuskI think the limiting factor for AI deployment is fundamentally electrical power.我认为 AI 部署的根本限制因素是电力。
Larry FinkIt’s energy. Yeah.是能源。对。
Elon MuskWe were seeing the rate of AI chip production increase exponentially, but the rate of electricity being brought online is….我们看到 AI 芯片的产量在指数级增长，但电力上线的速度……
Larry Fink5%, 4% a year max.每年最多 5%、4%。
Elon MuskYes, it’s clear very soon—maybe later this year—we will be producing more chips than we can turn on. Except for China. China’s growth in electricity is tremendous.对，很明显，很快——也许就在今年晚些时候——我们生产的芯片将多过我们能开机运行的数量。中国除外。中国的电力增长非常惊人。
Larry FinkThey are building 100 gigawatts of nuclear as we speak.他们正在建造 100 gigawatts 的核电，就在眼下。
Larry FinkSOLAR太阳能
Elon MuskActually solar is the biggest thing in China. So China is—I believe Chinese production capacity on solar is 1,500 gigawatts a year, and they’re deploying over 1,000 gigawatts a year of solar. Now, you know, for continuous solar load, you divide that by roughly 4 or 5. Call it around 250 gigawatts of steady-state power paired with batteries.其实中国最大的能源增量是太阳能。中国太阳能的年产能，我相信是 1,500 gigawatts，他们每年部署超过 1,000 gigawatts 的太阳能。当然，折算成连续稳定功率要除以大约 4 到 5，大概就是 250 gigawatts 的稳态功率，配合储能电池。
Elon MuskAnd that’s a very big number—half the average power usage in the US. US power usage on average is 500 gigawatts. China. just with solar, solar that can provide steady-state power and batteries can do half of the US electricity output per year just from solar.这是一个非常大的数字——相当于美国平均用电量的一半。美国平均用电量是 500 gigawatts。中国仅靠太阳能——也就是可以提供稳态功率的太阳能加储能电池——每年就能提供相当于美国全部电力输出一半的电量，只靠太阳能。
Elon MuskSolar’s by far the bigger source of energy. And actually when you look beyond Earth—or even on Earth, but certainly beyond Earth—the sun rounds up to 100% of all energy. This is an important thing to consider. So the sun is 99.8% of the mass of the solar system. Jupiter is about 0.1%, and everything else is miscellaneous. Now even if you were to burn Jupiter in a thermonuclear reactor, this up the amount of energy produced by the sun would still round to 100%, because Jupiter is only 0.1%. If you teleported three more Jupiters into our solar system and burnt three more Jupiters and everything else in the solar system, the sun’s energy would still round up to 100%. So it is really all about the sun. And that is why one of the things we are doing with SpaceX within a few years is launching solar-powered AI satellites. Because space is really the source of immense power. Then you don’t need to take any room on Earth. There is so much room in space and can scale to hundreds of terawatts a year.太阳能目前是远超其他来源的最大能源。如果把视野放到地球之外——或者即便只看地球本身，太阳提供的能量四舍五入就是 100% 的全部能量。这一点很重要，值得认真考虑。太阳占太阳系总质量的 99.8%，木星大约是 0.1%，其他所有东西加在一起是剩下那点零碎。哪怕你把木星扔进热核反应堆烧掉，太阳产生的能量总量依然四舍五入是 100%，因为木星只有 0.1%。如果你再凭空传送三个木星进太阳系，把这三个木星再加上太阳系其他所有东西全部烧掉，太阳的能量还是会四舍五入到 100%。所以归根结底，就是太阳。这就是为什么 SpaceX 正在做的事情之一——将在几年内发射太阳能驱动的 AI 卫星。因为太空才是巨大能量的真正源泉。这样还不占地球上的任何空间。太空中有无比广阔的空间，可以扩展到数百 terawatts 的年产能。
Larry FinkElon and I have had these conversations before, but why don’t you tell the audience what would it take for the United States in what geography would it take that solar field electrify the United States? Let me ask a question: why aren’t we doing it?Elon 和我之前就聊过这些，但为什么不跟大家说说——在美国，需要多大的地理区域，才能用太阳能给美国供电？我想问的是：为什么我们没有在做这件事？
Elon MuskSo rough way is 100 miles by 100 miles—160 kilometers by 160 kilometers—on solar is enough to power the entire United States. So 100-mile by 100-mile area. You can take a small corner of Utah, Nevada, New Mexico—obviously wouldn’t want it all in one place—but there was very small percentage of area of US to generate all electricity that US uses. And same is true actually for Europe. You could take a small part of your energy—take relatively unpopulated areas of say Spain and Sicily, and generate all electricity power that Europe needs.粗略的算法是：100 英里乘 100 英里——也就是 160 公里乘 160 公里——的太阳能电池板就足以为整个美国供电。就这么一个 100 英里见方的区域。你可以在犹他州、内华达州、新墨西哥州各划一小块——当然不会全放在一个地方——但美国只需要极小比例的国土面积就能产生全国所需的全部电力。欧洲同样如此。你只需要取欧洲的一小块——比如西班牙和西西里的部分人烟稀少的地区——就能产生欧洲所需的全部电力。
Larry FinkWhy don’t you think there is a movement towards it here and in the United States? As there is in China?为什么你认为欧洲和美国没有像中国那样推动太阳能的普及？
Elon MuskWell, unfortunately, US tariff barriers for solar are extremely high and this makes economics deploying solar artificially high. Because China makes almost all the solar.很遗憾，美国对太阳能的关税壁垒极高，这让部署太阳能的经济成本人为地居高不下。因为中国几乎生产了全球所有的太阳能板。
Larry FinkAnd what would it take for Europe or US to build it commercially if it is at scale?那如果要让欧洲或美国在商业上大规模建设太阳能，需要什么条件？
Larry FinkElon Musk : Yeah, I think—well, I can tell you what we are going to do at SpaceX and Tesla. We’re building up large-scale solar. So the SpaceX and Tesla teams both separately are working to build to 100 gigawatts a year of solar power in the US (of manufactured solar power). That will probably take us about three years. But these are pretty big numbers. And I encourage others to do the same. We obviously don’t control US tariff policy. But China makes solar cells that are incredibly low cost. And I think it would be worth doing large-scale solar.scale solar.我觉得——我可以告诉你我们在 SpaceX 和 Tesla 要做的事。我们正在大规模布局太阳能。SpaceX 和 Tesla 的团队分别在独立推进，目标是在美国每年生产 100 gigawatts 的太阳能（国产太阳能）。大概需要三年左右。这是相当大的数字。我鼓励其他人也这样做。我们显然无法左右美国的关税政策。但中国生产的太阳能电池成本极低。我认为大规模推进太阳能是值得的。
Larry FinkSo I know you’re going to be having a couple of big announcements on robotics and what it can do. I mean, when we went to the factory, you showed me those robots. We talked about billions of robots, but how quickly can they be deployed in your manufacturing setting, be utilized and be functional, and create that abundance you talked about?我知道你在机器人领域将有几项重大宣布，关于机器人能做什么。我是说，我们去工厂参观时，你给我展示了那些机器人。我们谈到了数十亿台机器人，但它们能多快在你的制造环境中实际部署、投入使用、并创造出你所说的那种丰裕？
Elon MuskWell, humanoid robotics will advance very quickly. We do have some of the Tesla Optimus robots doing simple tasks in the factory. Probably later this year—by the end of this year—I think they will be doing more complex tasks, but still deployed in an industrial environment. And probably sometime next year—I would say that by the end of next year—I think we will be selling humanoid robots to the public.人形机器人将会非常迅速地发展。Tesla Optimus 机器人目前已经在工厂里执行一些简单任务。大概今年晚些时候——到今年年底——我认为它们将能够执行更复杂的任务，但仍然是在工业环境中部署。可能再过一年左右——我觉得到明年年底——我们将会向公众销售人形机器人。
Larry FinkLike you’re already seeing in Tesla cars, software changes every quarter now. A software change upgrades the ability of the robot within the car.就像你在 Tesla 汽车上看到的那样，软件每个季度都在更新。软件更新会提升汽车内机器人的能力。
Elon MuskYes, the Tesla full self-driving software—we update sometimes once a week. So I think some of the insurance companies have said that it is actually so safe when Tesla uses full self-driving—so safe that they’re offering customers half-price insurance if they use Tesla full self-driving in their car.是的，Tesla 的全自动驾驶（full self-driving）软件——我们有时候一周更新一次。一些保险公司已经表示，Tesla 使用全自动驾驶时实际上非常安全——安全到他们愿意为使用 Tesla 全自动驾驶的用户提供半价保险。
Larry FinkAnd that can be monitored by the insurance company because it’s part of the agreement?这可以被保险公司监控，因为是协议的一部分？
Elon MuskYeah, but I think self-driving cars is essentially a solved problem at this point. Tesla has rolled out Robotaxi service in a few cities, and it will be very widespread by the end of this year within US. Then we hope to get supervised full self-driving approval in Europe hopefully next month.对。但我认为，自动驾驶汽车这个问题基本上已经解决了。Tesla 已经在几个城市推出了 Robotaxi 服务，到今年年底将在美国非常大范围地普及。然后我们希望最快下个月在欧洲获得有监督全自动驾驶（supervised full self-driving）的批准。
Larry FinkReally that quickly!?真的这么快！？
Elon MuskYeah. And then maybe similar timing for China hopefully.是的。然后中国也希望差不多时间内跟进。
Elon MuskSPACE太空
Larry FinkI want to move to space because historically space is very capital intensive. Historically been done by governments. Obviously SpaceX changed the whole model. But we have seen it slow to scale. And now I am starting to see ramping up in what you are doing. Talk about the automation—how is it changing economics in building and preparing for operating in space?我想聊聊太空，因为历史上太空一直是极度资本密集型的，历来由各国政府主导。SpaceX 显然改变了整个模式。但我们看到它的规模化进展缓慢。而现在，我开始看到你们所做的事情在加速提升。谈谈自动化——它如何改变了建造太空飞行器和准备太空运营的经济学？
Elon MuskSure. Well, the key breakthrough that SpaceX hopes to achieve this year: full reusability. No one has ever achieved full reusability of a rocket, which is very important for the cost of access to space. We have achieved partial reusability with Falcon 9 by landing the boost stage over 500 times. But we have to throw away the upper stage that burns up on reentry. And the cost of it is equivalent to a small- to medium-size jet.好的。SpaceX 今年希望实现的关键突破是：完全可复用。从来没有人真正实现过火箭的完全可复用，这对于降低进入太空的成本至关重要。我们通过 Falcon 9 的一级助推器超过 500 次着陆，实现了部分可复用。但我们仍然需要抛弃在重返大气层时烧掉的上面级，而其成本相当于一架小型到中型喷气式飞机。
Elon MuskSo with Starship—which is a giant rocket, the largest flying machine ever made—that’s the rocket you’re using for the idea of going to Mars, right?所以，Starship——这是一枚超大型火箭，是有史以来制造过的最大飞行器——就是你们用于奔赴火星的那枚火箭，对吗？
Larry FinkYeah.对。
Elon MuskMars and the Moon as well, and for high-volume satellite stuff. So Starship—hopefully this year—we should prove full reusability for Starship, which will be a profound invention. Because the cost of access to space will drop by a factor of 100 when you achieve full reusability. It is the same economic difference that you would expect between, say, a reusable aircraft and a non-reusable aircraft. Like if you have to throw your aircraft away after every flight, there will be expensive flights. But if you only refuel, then it’s the cost of fuel.去火星，也去月球，还有大量的高频卫星发射任务。今年希望 Starship 能实现完全可复用，这将是一项深刻的发明。因为实现完全可复用后，进入太空的成本将降低 100 倍。这就好比可复用飞机和一次性飞机之间的经济差异。如果每次飞完都要把飞机扔掉，飞行肯定贵得要命。但如果只需要加油，那成本就是燃油费。
Elon MuskSo that’s really the fundamental breakthrough that gets the cost of access to space—we think—below the cost of freight on aircraft. So you know, under $100 a pound type thing easily. It makes putting large satellites into space very low, very cheap.这才是真正的根本性突破，能让进入太空的成本——我们认为——低于航空货运的成本。也就是说，每磅轻松低于 $100 这个量级。这让把大型卫星送入太空的成本变得非常低、非常便宜。
Elon MuskAnd then when you have solar in space, you get five times more effectiveness—maybe even more than that—than solar on the ground. Because it’s always sunny, no clouds. Yeah, it’s always sunny. So you don’t have a day-night cycle or seasonality or weather. And you get about 30% more power in space because you don’t have atmospheric attenuation of the power. That net effect is solar is five times more—any given solar panel will do five times the energy in space than on the ground.而且，太阳能板在太空中的效率比地面高五倍——甚至不止五倍。因为那里永远是晴天，没有云。永远阳光灿烂。没有昼夜循环、没有季节性、没有天气干扰。另外，因为没有大气层对功率的衰减，在太空中的功率大约还要多出 30%。综合来看，太阳能在太空的效率是地面的五倍——同一块太阳能板在太空产生的能量是地面的五倍。
Larry FinkThere is any capacity in doing that then taking that power, bringing back to Earth? Is there any way of doing that? Or you just taking the power and utilizing it for needs like building AI data centers in space?那把那些电力用完后，有没有办法把它带回地球？还是说只能用于在太空建造 AI 数据中心之类的用途？
Elon MuskI think the case is a no-brainer for building AI solar power to AI data centers in space. Because as mentioned, it’s also very cold in space. If you’re in shadow, then it’s very cold in space—3 degrees Kelvin. So you have solar panels facing the sun, and then a radiator that is like pointed away from the sun so it has no sun incidence. And then it’s just cooling—it’s a very efficient cooling system. Net effect is that the lowest-cost place to put AI will be space. And that will be true within 2 years, maybe 3 at latest.我认为，在太空建造以太阳能驱动的 AI 数据中心，这件事不用多想。因为如前所述，太空还非常冷。如果处于阴影中，太空极度寒冷——只有 3 Kelvin。所以，让太阳能板朝向太阳，然后用一个背向太阳的散热器——完全没有阳光照射，散热效率极高。综合来看，建造 AI 基础设施成本最低的地方将是太空。这在 2 年内就会成真，最晚 3 年。
Larry FinkLooking 10 or 20 years out, how would you describe success with AI or space technology? And where do you see it? Can—are more certain what will happen in the next 3 years, 5, 10?展望 10 年或 20 年后，你会怎么描述 AI 或太空技术的成功？你对哪个时间段更有把握——3 年、5 年还是 10 年后？
Elon MuskI don’t know what’s going to happen in ten years. But the rate at which AI is progressing—we might have AI that is smarter than any human by end of this year, and no later than next year. And probably 2030 or 2031—5 years from now—AI will be smarter than all of humanity collectively.我不知道 10 年后会发生什么。但 AI 进步的速度——我们可能在今年年底前就拥有比任何单个人类都更聪明的 AI，最晚明年。而到 2030 或 2031 年——也就是 5 年后——AI 在智能上可能会超越全体人类的集体水平。
Larry FinkWe only have a number of minutes left, but I want to humanize you for a second. So there’s no speculation that you’re the most successful entrepreneur, industrialist in the 21st century—maybe beyond. What inspired you? Who inspired you? What was the foundation of your curiosity? And importantly, why? Was there an aha moment, epiphany at any time in your life and career?我们只剩几分钟了，但我想让大家更直观地了解你这个人。毫无疑问，你是 21 世纪最成功的企业家和实业家，甚至可能是有史以来的。是什么激励了你？谁激励了你？你的好奇心的根基是什么？最重要的是，为什么？在你的生命和事业中，有没有某个灵光乍现的顿悟时刻？
Elon MuskWell, I mean, as a kid I read a lot of science fiction, sci-fi, fantasy books, comic books. And always like technology. Didn’t expect to be where I am today—seems incredibly implausible. But yeah, I was inspired by reading books about the future of science fiction. And I guess want to make science fiction not fiction forever. At some point, turn science fiction into fact. And you know, we wanna have like Starfleet as in Star Trek really for real—where we actually have giant spaceships traveling through space, going to other planets, traveling to other star systems.我小时候读了很多科幻、奇幻书籍和漫画，一直很喜欢技术。没想到会走到今天这一步——现在回头看简直难以置信。但我确实是被那些关于科幻未来的书籍所激励的。我想让科幻小说不再永远只是"科幻"。在某个时间节点，把科幻变成现实。你知道，我们想真正拥有像《星际迷航》里 Starfleet 那样的东西——真正的巨型飞船穿越太空、登陆其他星球、飞往其他星系。
Larry FinkBeamed up to go back to New York?被传送回纽约去？
Elon MuskI would like beaming back to New York instead of flying. Yeah. You know about Star Trek. So I guess my essential what we call the philosophy of curiosity. And I would like to understand the meaning of life. Is the standard model of physics correct regarding the beginning of existence at the end of the universe? What questions do we not know to ask that we should ask? And AI will help us with these things. So I just try to understand: how did we get here? What’s going on? What is real? Are there aliens? Maybe they are. If you have spaceships traveling to other star systems, we may encounter aliens or find many long-dead alien civilizations. But I just want to know what’s going on—curious about the universe. And that is my philosophy.我希望能传送回纽约而不是坐飞机。说起《星际迷航》——我的核心哲学大概可以称为"好奇心哲学"。我想理解生命的意义。物理学的标准模型关于宇宙起源和终结的描述是正确的吗？有没有我们应该提出却还不知道怎么提的问题？AI 会帮助我们解答这些问题。我只是想搞清楚：我们是怎么来到这里的？正在发生什么？什么是真实的？有没有外星人？也许有吧。如果飞船能飞到其他星系，我们也许会遇到外星人，或者发现许多早已消亡的外星文明。但我只是想知道——到底是怎么回事。对宇宙充满好奇。这就是我的哲学。
Larry FinkDo you see yourself going to Mars in your lifetime?你觉得你这辈子会去火星吗？
Elon MuskYes. Like that’s a long commitment, isn’t it? Three years each way?会。这个承诺很重啊，不是吗？单程要三年？
Larry FinkSix months.六个月。
Elon MuskBut the planets only align every two years. So yeah. Been asked a few times: do I want to die on Mars? And I’m like, yes—just not on impact.但两颗行星每两年才对齐一次。所以嘛。有人问过我几次：我想不想死在火星上？我的回答是：想——只要不是撞上去死的。
Larry FinkThat’s a good answer. Anyway, we are out of time. Hopefully everybody enjoyed this. And there are so many myths around Elon Musk. I can tell you he is a great friend, and I constantly learn so much from him. And I’m totally inspired by what he has done, have been inspired by who he is, and I’m totally inspired by his vision of the future. And don’t think it’s such a bad future.这个答案很棒。好了，我们的时间到了。希望大家都享受了这段对话。关于 Elon Musk 有太多的传言和误解。我可以告诉大家，他是我非常好的朋友，我从他身上不断学习，他所做的一切让我深受启发，他这个人让我深受启发，他对未来的愿景也让我深受启发。而且我认为这并不是一个那么糟糕的未来。
Elon MuskAnd I think generally my last words would be: I encourage everyone to be optimistic and excited about the future. Good. And generally for quality of life, it is better on being an optimist rather than a pessimist, right?我想说的最后一句话是：我鼓励每个人对未来保持乐观，对未来感到兴奋。做一个乐观主义者，在生活质量上总比做一个悲观主义者要好，对吧？
Elon Musk(End of video – applause and wrap-up.)（视频结束——掌声与收场。）
Elon MuskThis verbatim transcript is important and inspiring for everybody. Because it is so wide-ranging on technology, energy, AI, space, and optimism, it can lift you up if you’re ever down.这份逐字记录对每个人都意义重大、鼓舞人心。因为它的话题如此广泛——涵盖技术、能源、AI、太空与乐观精神——每当你情绪低落时，它都能让你振奋起来。
Elon MuskWhen I bought my first Tesla, a Model 3 in 2019, I joined a community of many people who love Elon Musk and Tesla. Every time I drive my Tesla around my hometown Austin, Texas, or take a Robotaxi here, I’m reminded of the extraordinary effort that is put into making Tesla succeed. Elon puts in maximum effort into all his companies.2019 年我买了人生中第一辆 Tesla——Model 3，从此加入了一个由许多热爱 Elon Musk 和 Tesla 的人组成的社群。每次我在德克萨斯州奥斯汀的家乡开着 Tesla 上路，或者在这里坐 Robotaxi，都会感受到为了让 Tesla 成功而付出的非凡努力。Elon 对他所有公司都全力以赴。
Elon MuskIn January 2022, I started this blog to write positive things about Tesla and Elon Musk. It has since grown to include many transcripts of Elon’s talks. I’m thankful to Johnna Crider for supporting and encouraging me to start this blog.2022 年 1 月，我创办了这个博客，专门写关于 Tesla 和 Elon Musk 的正面内容。此后，博客逐渐扩展，收录了许多 Elon 演讲的文字记录。感谢 Johnna Crider 对我创办这个博客的支持和鼓励。