Chris AndersonI want you to come with me to Tesla's huge gigafactory So the day before it opened last week, the evening before, no one else there. And what I saw there was, This is Elon Musk's famous and in his view, the secret is not just making electric car. It's making a system that churns out with a margin, so that they can fund further growth. When I was there, none of us knew whether Elon would actually be able so I took the chance to sit down with him and record an epic interview. And I just want to show you So here from Austin, Texas, Elon Musk. (Video) I want us to switch now to think I’m curious about your timelines and how come some things are so amazingly So when it comes to predicting sales you've kind of been amazing. I think in 2014 when Tesla you said, "2020, I think we will do我想带你们去看看 Tesla 那座巨大的 Gigafactory——就是上周开放前一天，也就是前一天晚上，那时候还没有其他人在。我在那里看到的东西，让我意识到，这正是 Elon Musk 出了名的——在他看来，秘诀不只是造电动车，而是打造一套能以足够利润大批量产出的系统，从而为持续增长提供资金。当时我们都还不知道 Elon 究竟能不能做到，于是我抓住机会坐下来跟他做了一次深度访谈录像。我现在就想给你们看。以下来自德克萨斯州奥斯汀的 Elon Musk。（视频）我想切换一下话题，我很好奇你的时间线——为什么有些事情你预测得如此准确，有些却不行？比如预测销量，你一直表现惊人。我记得 2014 年，Tesla 的时候你说："2020 年，我认为我们能做到……"
Elon MuskYeah, we did对，我们做到了。
Chris AndersonFive years ago, I asked you about full self-driving, and you said, “Yeah, this very year I'm confident that we will have a car without any intervention."五年前我问你关于完全自动驾驶的问题，你说："对，就在今年，我有信心我们能做到完全无需人工干预的驾驶。"
Elon MuskYeah, I don't want to blow your mind,对，我不想把你搞晕，
Chris Anderson(Laughs) What's the difference between those two? Why has full self-driving in particular（笑）这两件事有什么区别？为什么偏偏是完全自动驾驶……
Elon MuskI mean, the thing that really got me, and I think it's going to get is that there are just so many where you think you've got the problem, have a handle on the problem, and then it, no, turns out Because if you were to plot the progress, the progress looks like a log curve. So it's like a series of log curves. So most people don't know我是说，真正让我头疼的——我觉得很多人都会有同感——是那些你以为已经搞定的问题，你以为掌控住了，结果发现，不对，原来根本没有。因为如果你把进展画成图，它呈现的是对数曲线的形态。就像是一段一段的对数曲线叠加。所以大多数人根本不知道……
Chris AndersonShow the shape with your hands.用手比划一下那个形状。
Elon MuskIt goes up, you know, and then it starts tailing off and you start getting diminishing returns. You know, in retrospect, but in order to solve you actually have to solve real-world AI. Because what are the road networks They're designed to work and with vision, our eyes. And so in order to make it you basically need to solve Because we need cameras and silicon neural nets in order to have self-driving work for a system that was designed You know, I guess it's sort of, like, quite obvious that the only way is to solve real-world AI就这样往上，然后开始趋于平缓，回报越来越少。回过头来看就很清楚了。但要真正解决这个问题，你其实必须攻克现实世界的 AI。因为道路网络是什么？它们是为人类配合视觉、用眼睛来使用而设计的。所以要让它运转起来，你基本上就得解决……因为我们需要摄像头和硅基神经网络，才能让自动驾驶在一个专为人类设计的系统里运作。我想，这其实很显然，唯一的出路就是解决现实世界的 AI。
Chris AndersonWhat do you feel Do you think you have an architecture now where there is a chance for the logarithmic curve你觉得现在的架构有没有可能让那条对数曲线……
Elon MuskWell I mean, admittedly but I actually am confident That we will exceed -- The probability of an accident, at what point do you exceed I think we will exceed that this year. We could be here talking again in a year, like, well, another year went by But I think this is the year.呃，我承认……但我确实有信心——我们会超过——事故概率，在什么时候会超过……我认为今年我们就能做到。我们可以一年后再坐在这里聊，说，哎，又一年过去了……但我认为今年就是那一年。
Chris AndersonIs there an element that you actually deliberately make to drive people to be ambitious? Without that, nothing gets done? So it feels like seeing the progress on understanding that the Tesla AI led to a kind of, an aha moment at Tesla. Because you really surprised people probably the most important going on at Tesla this year Is it something that happened in the development of full self-driving "You know what, we could do有没有一种因素，是你其实有意为之——用来推动大家保持野心？没有这个，什么都做不成？感觉从 Tesla AI 的进展来看，它带来了一种「啊哈」时刻。因为你让大家大吃一惊——可能是 Tesla 今年最重要的动向。这是不是在开发完全自动驾驶的过程中发生的某件事，让你意识到："你知道吗，我们可以做……"
Elon MuskYeah, exactly. So, you know, it took me a while that in order to solve self-driving, you really needed to solve real-world AI. And at the point of which you solve which is really a robot on four wheels, you can then generalize that The things that are currently missing for the robot to navigate the real world without being explicitly instructed. So the missing things are basically and scaling up manufacturing. Those are two things And so then we basically just need and sensors that are needed People have no idea,对，正是如此。我花了一段时间才意识到，要解决自动驾驶，你确实需要解决现实世界的 AI。而一旦你解决了这个——说白了就是一辆四个轮子上的机器人——你就可以把它推广出去。机器人在没有明确指令的情况下在现实世界导航，目前缺失的东西。缺失的东西基本上就是那些，还有制造规模的提升。这两件事……所以我们基本上就需要把所需要的……以及传感器弄到位。人们根本不知道，
Chris AndersonSo talk about -- I think the first applications are probably going to be in manufacturing, but eventually, the vision is to have If you had a robot that really understood and knew where every object or was supposed to be and could recognize all those objects, I mean, that's kind of amazing, isn't it, like, the kind of thing would be what? Like, tidy up?那就说说——我认为最早的应用场景大概会是在制造业，但最终的愿景是有……如果你有一个机器人，它真正理解并知道每一件物品在哪、该在哪，能识别所有这些物品，我是说，那会很神奇，对吧？那种级别的事情会是什么？比如，整理房间？
Elon MuskYeah, absolutely. Make dinner, I guess, mow the lawn.对，绝对可以。做饭，我想，还有割草。
Chris AndersonTake a cup of tea to grandma给奶奶送杯茶。
Elon MuskExactly. Take care没错。照顾……
Chris AndersonIt could obviously recognize It could play catch with your kids.显然还能识别……能陪你的孩子玩接球。
Elon MuskYes. I mean, obviously, this doesn't become a dystopian situation. I think one of the things is to have a localized that cannot be updated over the air. Where if you, for example, were to say, if anyone said that, then the robot would stop, And that's not updatable remotely. I think it's going to be important是的。我是说，显然，这不能变成反乌托邦的局面。我认为其中一件重要的事是，要有一个本地化的……不能通过无线更新的东西。比如说，如果有人说了什么，机器人就会停下来。而这一点不能被远程修改。我觉得这将非常重要。
Chris AndersonYeah, that sounds wise.是的，听起来很明智。
Elon MuskAnd I do think there should be I've said this for many years. I don't love being regulated, but I think this is an important而且我确实认为应该有监管。我说这话很多年了。我不是很喜欢被监管，但我认为这是很重要的……
Chris AndersonDo you think there will be basically like, a robot in most homes, and people will love them You'll have your own butler basically.你觉得基本上每个家庭都会有一个机器人，大家会喜欢它们吗？基本上就是你自己的管家。
Elon MuskYeah, you'll have your sort of对，你会有你的那种……
Chris AndersonI mean, how much of a buddy? How many applications have you thought, you know, can you have我是说，多亲密的搭档？你想过多少种应用场景，你知道，可以做……
Elon MuskIt's probably inevitable. I mean, I did promise the internet We could make a robot catgirl.这大概是必然的。我是说，我之前确实向网友承诺过……我们可以做一个猫娘机器人。
Chris AndersonBe careful what (Laughter)小心你许下的承诺（哄堂大笑）
Elon MuskSo, yeah, I guess it'll be所以，是的，我想它会是……
Chris AndersonWhat sort of timeline of the first models第一批量产型号大概什么时间线？
Elon MuskWell, you know, the first units are for jobs that are dangerous, and things that people don't want to do. And, you know, I think we'll have like, some time this year. We might have something useful next year, but I think quite likely And then we'll see of the usefulness and decrease in cost嗯，第一批机器是用于危险工作，以及人们不想做的事情。我认为我们今年内会有一些……明年可能就有实用的东西，但我认为很有可能……然后我们会看到实用性提升和成本下降。
Chris AndersonHelp me on the economics of this. So what do you picture the cost帮我分析一下经济账。你预想的成本是多少？
Elon MuskWell, I think the cost is actually Like, less than a car.我认为成本实际上……比一辆车还便宜。
Chris AndersonBut think about the economics of this. If you can replace a 30,000-dollar, 40,000-dollar-a-year worker, which you have to pay every year, with a one-time payment of 25,000 dollars for a robot that can work longer hours, doesn't go an vacation, it could be a pretty rapid replacement How worried should但想想这个经济逻辑。如果你能用一次性支付 $25,000 买一个机器人，替代一个每年要花 $30,000 到 $40,000 的工人——而且机器人工作时间更长、不需要休假——那可能是相当快速的替代。我们应该有多担心……
Elon MuskI wouldn't worry about the sort of, I think we're actually going to have, a massive shortage of labor. So I think we will have ... Not people out of work, but actually still a shortage But this really will be Any goods and services will be available It'll be so cheap to have goods (Applause)我不会担心那种……我认为我们实际上将面临严重的劳动力短缺。所以我认为我们会有……不是人们没工作，而是仍然出现劳动力短缺。但这真的会让……任何商品和服务都会变得唾手可得。拥有商品会变得如此便宜。（掌声）
Chris AndersonAnd now, arguably, the biggest (Applause) Hey, Elon, welcome. So, Elon, a few hours ago, (Laughter) Why? (Laughter)而现在，可以说是最大的……（掌声）嘿，Elon，欢迎你。Elon，几个小时前……（笑声）为什么？（笑声）
Elon MuskHow'd you know? (Laughter)你怎么知道的？（笑声）
Chris AndersonA little bird tweeted in my ear一只小鸟在我耳边叫了一声。
Elon MuskBy the way, have you seen顺便问一句，你看过……
Chris AndersonI have.我看过。
Elon MuskIt's a good movie. (Laughs)是部好电影。（笑）
Chris AndersonDon't mention that here. (Laughter)这里就别提了。（笑声）
Elon MuskSo, yeah, yeah, so ... Was there a question?好的，好的，那……有问题吗？
Chris AndersonWhy make that offer?为什么要提出那个收购要约？
Elon MuskOh, so, well, I think it's very important an inclusive arena for free speech where all ... Twitter has become, kind of, It’s just really important and the perception that they are able to speak freely And, you know, one of the things is open-source the algorithm and make any changes to people’s tweets, or if they're emphasized or de-emphasized, that action should be made apparent so anyone can see So there's no, sort of, either algorithmically or manually. (Applause)哦，嗯，我认为非常重要的是，要有一个包容各方声音的自由言论平台……Twitter 已经变成了，某种意义上……这真的非常重要，让人们感知到自己可以自由发声。还有一点就是，把算法开源，并且对推文所做的任何改动——不管是被加权还是被降权——这些操作都应该公开展示，让任何人都能看见。这样就不会有那种，无论是算法层面还是人工层面的暗箱操作。（掌声）
Chris AndersonLast week when we spoke, Elon, I asked you whether You said, no way. You said, “I do not want to own Twitter. It is a recipe for misery. Everyone will blame me for everything." What on Earth changed?上周我们聊的时候，Elon，我问你是否……你说绝对不可能。你说："我不想拥有 Twitter。那是一条通往痛苦的路。所有人都会把所有事怪到我头上。"究竟是什么改变了你的想法？
Elon MuskNo I think everyone (Laughter) If I acquire Twitter it’s my fault, 100 percent. I think there will be不，我觉得所有人……（笑声）如果我收购了 Twitter，那 100% 是我的锅。我认为会有……
Chris AndersonIt will be miserable. But you still want to do it. Why?会很痛苦。但你还是想做。为什么？
Elon MuskI mean, I hope it's not too miserable. I just think it's important to the ... It’s important to It’s important to the function and many other countries. And to actually help freedom And so I think it's, you know, I think the civilizational the more we can increase the trust And so I do think this will And I’m not sure that I will actually And I should also say the intent as is allowed by the law which I think is around 2,000 or so. So it's definitely not, "Let me figure out how to monopolize or maximize my ownership of Twitter." But I will try to bring along as many我希望不会太痛苦。我只是觉得这对……很重要。对……很重要。对很多其他国家的运转也很重要。对真正推动言论自由……所以我认为，文明层面……我们越能提升信任度……所以我确实认为这将会……我也不确定我能否真的……我还应该说，意图是在法律允许的范围内……我认为大概是 2,000 左右。所以这绝对不是"让我想办法垄断或最大化我对 Twitter 的持股"。但我会尽量让尽可能多的……
Chris AndersonYou don't necessarily want billion dollars in cash. You'd like them to come with you你不一定想要那么多亿美元的现金，你希望他们跟你一起来？
Elon MuskI mean, you know,我的意思是，你知道，
Chris AndersonI heard that.我听到了。
Elon MuskBut what I'm saying is, this is not a way to, sort of, It's just that I think this is ... My strong intuitive sense that is maximally trusted and broadly inclusive is extremely important但我的意思是，这不是说，要用来……只是我认为……我内心强烈感受到的是，一个被最大程度信任、广泛包容各方的平台，是极其重要的……
Chris AndersonBut you've described yourself --但你曾经形容自己——
Elon MuskI don't care我不在乎。
Chris AndersonOK, that's cool to hear. This is not about the economics. It’s for the moral good You’ve described yourself, Elon, But does that mean that there's literally and it's OK?好吧，很高兴听你这么说。这不是关于经济利益的事。是为了道义上的善……你曾经形容自己，Elon，但那意味着字面上真的……而且没问题？
Elon MuskWell, I think, obviously, Twitter or any forum is bound by the laws of the country that it operates in. So obviously, there are some limitations And of course, Twitter would have to我认为，显然，Twitter 或任何论坛都受其运营所在国法律约束。所以显然存在一些限制……当然，Twitter 也必须……
Chris AndersonSo you can't incite like, a direct incitement to violence you know, you can't do the equivalent for example.所以你不能煽动，比如，直接煽动暴力……你知道，你不能做等同于……比如说，那种事。
Elon MuskNo, that would be a crime. It should be a crime.不，那算犯罪。本来就应该是犯罪。
Chris AndersonBut here's the challenge, it's such a nuanced difference So there's incitement to violence. That's a no if it's illegal. There's hate speech, which, some forms of hate speech are fine. You know, "I hate spinach."但问题在于，这中间的界限非常微妙。煽动暴力，如果违法那就不行。还有仇恨言论，某些形式的仇恨言论还算过得去，比如"我讨厌菠菜"。
Elon MuskI mean, if it's sauteed in, it can be quite nice.嗯，如果用橄榄油炒一下，其实挺好吃的。
Chris AndersonBut the problem is, OK, here's one tweet, Next tweet is, "I wish as some of us have said So that’s legitimate speech. Another tweet is, "I wish with a picture of their head Or that plus their address. I mean, at some point someone has to make a decision Can an algorithm do that, or surely you need但问题来了，好，这里有一条推文……下一条推文是："我希望，正如我们一些人说过的……"所以那算正当言论。另一条推文是："我希望……"附上他们的头像，或者再加上他们的地址……我是说，到某个时刻，总要有人做判断。算法能做到这一点吗？还是说你肯定需要……
Elon MuskNo, I think, like I said, in my view, Twitter should And really, you know, But going beyond that, and having it be unclear having tweets sort of, with no insight into what's going on, having a black-box algorithm promote I think this can be quite dangerous.不，我认为，就像我说的，在我看来，Twitter 应该……真的，你知道……但超过这个底线，让事情变得不透明，让推文在不明不白的情况下……没有任何了解幕后发生了什么的渠道，让一个黑盒算法来推送……我认为这可能相当危险。
Chris AndersonSo, the idea of opening and I think many people would welcome that of understanding exactly所以，开放……我认为很多人会欢迎这一点，真正弄清楚……
Elon MuskAnd critique it, like, what I mean is like, I think the code should be So people can look "I see a problem here." "I don't agree with this." They can highlight issues, suggest changes in the same way or something like that, you know.还能对它提出批评。我的意思是，代码应该是……人们可以看，"我发现这里有问题。""我不同意这个。"他们可以指出问题，提出修改建议，就像……或者类似的方式，你懂的。
Chris AndersonAs I understand it, what the algorithm would do how many people have flagged And then at some point and make a decision as to, does this cross the line or not, that the algorithm itself can't, I don't think yet, tell the difference and definitely obnoxious. And so the question is, make that call? I mean, do you have a picture of that? Right now, Twitter and Facebook they've hired thousands of people And the trouble is that no one How do you solve that?据我了解，算法会做的事是……有多少人标记了……然后到某个时刻……做出判断，这条内容有没有越界，算法本身还做不到这一点——我认为目前还不行——区分……和明显令人反感的内容。所以问题是，谁来做这个判断？Twitter 和 Facebook 现在的做法是雇了几千人……麻烦在于没有人……你怎么解决这个问题？
Elon MuskWell I think we would want let the speech exist. If it's, you know, a gray area, I would say let the tweet exist. But obviously, you know, in a case where there's perhaps that you would not want So I'm not saying But I do think that we want to be just and just be very cautious You know, time-outs, I think, are better And ... But just in general, like I said ... It won’t be perfect, but I think the perception and reality that speech And a good sign as to whether is someone you don’t like allowed And if that is the case, And it's damn annoying says something you don't like. That is a sign of a healthy, (Applause)我认为我们会想要……让那条言论存在。如果它处于灰色地带，我会说让这条推文存在。但显然，在某些情况下，也许你不希望……所以我不是在说……但我确实认为我们应该在处罚上保持谨慎和克制。比如"禁言"，我认为比……更好。但总体上，就像我说的……不会完美，但我认为人们对言论自由……真正的感知与现实，以及一个好的判断标准，是：你不喜欢的人，是否被允许发言？如果是这样，那……而且确实很烦人……说了你不喜欢的话。这是一个健康的……（掌声）
Chris AndersonI think many people And looking at the reaction online, many people are excited by you coming in Some others are absolutely horrified. Here's how they would see it. They would say, "Wait a sec. We agree that Twitter It is where the world exchanges opinion How on Earth could it be owned That can't be right." So what's the response there? Is there any way from the actual decision making in some very clear way我想很多人……看了网上的反应，很多人对你的加入感到兴奋……也有一些人感到绝对恐慌。他们是这样看的。他们会说："等等，我们同意 Twitter……这是全世界交流观点的地方……它怎么能被……拥有呢？这不对吧。"那你怎么回应？有没有什么办法真的从实际决策中……以某种非常清晰的方式做到隔离？
Elon MuskWell, like I said, that the algorithm be open-sourced and that any manual So if somebody did something to a tweet, there's information attached to it that action was taken. And I won't personally be, you know, But you'll know if something demote or otherwise affect a tweet. You know, as for media sort of ownership, Mark Zuckerberg owning Facebook and with a share ownership structure still controlling those entities. Like, literally. (Laughter) We won't have that at Twitter.嗯，就像我说的，算法要开源，所有人工操作都要透明。如果有人对一条推文做了什么，上面会附有信息，说明采取了什么行动。我个人不会……但你会知道某条推文有没有被降权或者受到其他影响。至于媒体所有权的问题，Mark Zuckerberg 拥有 Facebook，以及借助特殊股权架构仍然控制着这些实体……字面意义上的。（笑声）Twitter 我们不会这么搞。
Chris AndersonIf you commit that definitely gives Talk about some of the other changes The edit button, that's definitely coming if you have your way.如果你做出这个承诺，肯定会……说说其他一些改变。编辑按钮——如果按你的意思来，那肯定会有了。
Elon MuskYeah. I think, I mean, frankly ... The top priority I would have is eliminating the spam and scam bots and the bot armies that are on Twitter. (Applause) You know, I think these influence -- they make the product much worse. You know, if I had a Dogecoin (Laughter) I would have 100 billion Dogecoin.对。我认为，说实话……我最优先要做的是消除 Twitter 上的垃圾账号、诈骗机器人以及机器人军团。（掌声）我认为这些会……它们让产品体验变得非常糟糕。你知道，如果我每次被……有一个 Dogecoin……（笑声）我会有 1,000 亿个 Dogecoin 了。
Chris AndersonDo you regret sparking a sort of, you know, where it's gone?你后悔引发了那种……你知道，它走到今天这个地步了？
Elon MuskI mean, I think DOGE is fun. And, you know, I've always said (Laughs) But I think it’s, I like dogs and it's got both of those. (Laughter)我是说，我觉得 DOGE 挺好玩的。我一直说……（笑）我觉得，狗很可爱，而且两个元素它都有。（笑声）
Chris AndersonBut just on the edit button, so someone tweets, “Elon rocks” And then after that, and then all those retweets How do you avoid that type so that retweeters are exploited?但说回编辑按钮——假设有人推了一条"Elon 真棒"，然后之后……然后所有转推的人……你怎么避免那种情况，让转推的人不被利用？
Elon MuskWell, I think you'd only have the edit And probably the thing to do upon the edit would be to zero out我认为你只能在……时间内编辑。而且编辑之后大概应该把……清零。
Chris AndersonOK.好的。
Elon MuskI'm open to ideas though, you know.我也开放听取意见，你知道。
Chris AndersonSo in one way, the algorithm works I wanted to show you this. This is a typical tweet of mine, kind of lame and wordy and whatever. And the amazing response it gets is this, oh, my God, 97 likes. And then I tried another one. [I get to interview @elonmusk What questions would YOU ask him?] (Laughter) 29,000 likes. So the algorithm, at least seems to be, “If (Elon Musk), expand Not bad, right?所以从某种角度看，算法是有效的……我想给你看这个。这是我一条典型的推文，有点无聊、又臭又长，随便发发的。它得到的惊人回应是这样的——哦天啊，97 个点赞。然后我试了另一条：[我将采访 @elonmusk，你们会问他什么问题？]（笑声）29,000 个点赞。所以算法，至少看起来是："如果出现（Elon Musk），就扩大传播。"不差吧？
Elon MuskYeah, I guess so, (Laughter)对，我想是的。（笑声）
Chris AndersonSo help us understand how it is you've built this incredible when some of the people look at some of what you tweet and they think it's somewhere some of it's amazing.帮我们理解一下，你是如何积累起这个惊人的……当一些人看到你发的一些推文，他们觉得它介于……有些很了不起。
Elon MuskIt is a little ...确实有点……
Chris Anderson(Laughs) But is that actually why it's worked, why has it worked?（笑）但这实际上是它奏效的原因吗？为什么有效？
Elon MuskI mean, I don't know. I'm tweeting more or less stream It's not like, let me think about my Twitter or whatever. You know, I'm, like, literally, "Ha ha, this is funny." And then tweet that out. That's like most of them. (Laughs) That's, you know, oversharing. (Laughter)我不知道。我发推基本上是意识流式的……不像是"让我来规划一下我的 Twitter 策略"什么的。我就是字面上地，"哈哈，这挺好笑的。"然后就发出去了。大部分推文都这样。（笑）也就是说，过度分享。（笑声）
Chris AndersonBut you are obsessed with getting And so why not?但你痴迷于获得……那为什么不呢？
Elon MuskSo, I don't know. I try to tweet out things And then people seem to like it.嗯，我不知道。我尽量发些……然后大家似乎就是喜欢。
Chris AndersonSo if you are unsuccessful -- actually, before I ask that, So how can I say, is funding secured? (Laughter)那如果你没成功——不过在问这个之前，先问另一件事……我能不能说，资金已经落实了？（笑声）
Elon MuskI have sufficient assets This is not a forward-looking (Laughs) I mean, I can do it if possible. I should say, actually even originally funding was actually secured. I want to be clear about that. In fact, this may be Funding was indeed secured, why do I not have respect And I don't mean to blame but certainly the San Francisco office, it's because the SEC knew but they pursued an active public At the time, Tesla was in a precarious and I was told by the banks with the SEC that the banks would cease and Tesla would go bankrupt immediately. So that's like having a gun So I was forced to concede Those bastards. (Laughter) And now it makes it look like I lied I was forced to admit And that's the only reason.我拥有足够的资产……这不是前瞻性……（笑）我是说，可以的话我能做到。我要说明一下，实际上最初资金确实是落实了的。我想把这一点说清楚。事实上，这也许……资金确实是落实了的，为什么我没有得到……我不是要怪谁，但旧金山那个办公室……原因是 SEC 知道，但他们发动了一场主动的公开……当时 Tesla 处于极度脆弱的阶段，我被银行方面告知，如果跟 SEC 妥协，银行会停止……Tesla 会立刻破产。那就像是有枪顶着脑袋……所以我被迫让步。那帮混蛋。（笑声）现在这让人觉得像是我撒谎了……我是被迫承认的，而且那是唯一的原因。
Chris AndersonGiven what's actually happened -- (Applause) Given what's actually happened aren't you glad that you考虑到实际发生的一切——（掌声）考虑到实际发生的一切，你难道不庆幸你当初……
Elon MuskYeah. I mean ... It's difficult to put yourself Tesla was under the most relentless in the history of the stock market. There’s something where the barrage of negativity from short sellers on Wall Street Tesla was the most shorted stock This is saying something. So, you know, this was affecting our ability it was affecting our ability to sell cars, it was ... Yeah, it was terrible. They wanted Tesla to die so bad,是的，我是说……很难把自己代入到那个处境……Tesla 当时承受着股市历史上最猛烈的……有一种情况，华尔街空头不间断的负面狂轰滥炸……Tesla 是被做空最多的股票……这说明了很多问题。所以，这影响到了我们的融资能力，影响到了我们的卖车能力，影响到了……对，非常糟糕。他们太想让 Tesla 死掉了，
Chris AndersonWell, most of them嗯，他们中的大多数……
Elon MuskYes. Where are they now? (Laughter)是的。他们现在在哪儿？（笑声）
Chris AndersonSo that was a very strong statement. Obviously, a lot of people would say, you have so much on the vision side, don't waste your time getting distracted by these battles that bring out negativity and make people feel People don't like fights, especially They'd rather buy into your dream. Aren't you encouraged by people and go with the bigger story?那是一句非常有力的话。显然，很多人会说，你在愿景这块儿有这么多东西，不要把时间浪费在这些会带来负面情绪的争斗上——这让人们感到……人们不喜欢争斗，尤其是……他们宁愿相信你的梦想。难道你没有被人们鼓励，放下这些，专注于更宏大的叙事吗？
Elon MuskWell, I mean, I would say, like, you know, I’m somewhat (Laughter)嗯，我是说，我有点……（笑声）
Chris AndersonWell, you're a fighter You don't like to lose Basically, I mean.嗯，你是个斗士，你不喜欢输。基本上就这意思。
Elon MuskSure I don't like to lose, But the truth matters to me a lot. Sort of, pathologically, it matters to me.确实，我不喜欢输。但真相对我来说非常重要。那种程度……有点病态地重要。
Chris AndersonOK. So you don't like to lose, if in this case you are not successful in, you know, the board you've said you won't go higher. Is there a plan B?好的。那你不喜欢输——如果这次没成功，你说你不会出更高的价，有没有 Plan B？
Elon MuskThere is. (Laughter)有。（笑声）
Chris AndersonI think we would like to hear (Laughter)我想我们想听一听……（笑声）
Elon MuskFor another time, I think.那留到下次再说吧。
Chris AndersonAnother time, alright. (Applause) I ... That's a nice tease. Alright. (Laughter) I would love to try to understand With your permission, Oh, actually, before we do that, here was one of the thousands I thought this was actually "If you could go back in time and change one decision do your own edit button -- "which one would it be and why?"下次，好吧。（掌声）这是个不错的卖关子。好的。（笑声）我非常想了解……在你允许的情况下……哦，在这之前，这是那几千条问题中的一条，我觉得这条很……"如果你可以回到过去，改变一个决定——用你自己的编辑按钮——你会改变哪个？为什么？"
Elon MuskDo you mean like你是指……
Chris AndersonJust any decision like your decision to invest in Twitter Anything.就随便一个决定，比如你投资 Twitter 的决定……任何事。
Elon MuskI mean, the worst was not starting Tesla By far the worst decision I've ever made That's number one by far.我是说，最糟的决定是没有更早创立 Tesla。迄今为止我做过的最糟糕的决定，没有之一。
Chris AndersonAlright, so JB Straubel who was obsessed with And your decision to go with Tesla, meant that you got locked was a weird architecture now.好的，那么 JB Straubel，他痴迷于……你决定跟 Tesla 合作，意味着你当时被锁定在……是一个现在看来有点奇怪的架构。
Elon MuskThere's a lot of confusion. Tesla did not exist in any ... Tesla was a shell company no intellectual property, when I invested. But a false narrative has been created Martin Eberhard. And I don't want to get but I didn't invest We created a company. And ultimately, the creation was done by JB and me. And unfortunately, there's someone else, another cofounder to make it sound like这里有很多误解。Tesla 在……根本没有任何……当我投资的时候，Tesla 是一家空壳公司，没有任何知识产权。但有一个错误的叙事被炮制出来，是 Martin Eberhard 搞的。我不想过多纠缠，但我并没有投资一家现成的公司，我们是共同创建了一家公司。而最终，公司的真正创立是由 JB 和我完成的。不幸的是，还有另一位所谓的联合创始人……让这件事听起来像是……
Chris AndersonWasn't there another issue of the Tesla Model 3, And I think you have said that part of the reason for that the extent to which it was possible, Huge amount was spent kind of and it nearly took the company down. Is that fair?还有另一个问题——Tesla Model 3……我认为你说过，部分原因在于，尽可能地……花了巨额资金在某种程度上……差点把公司拖垮。这种说法准确吗？
Elon MuskI mean, first of all, what has Tesla actually accomplished It is not the creation or creating an electric vehicle prototype or low-volume production of a car. There have been hundreds of car start-ups And in fact, at one point, Bloomberg counted up the number and I think they got to almost 500. So the hard part is not or going into limited production. The absolutely difficult thing, which has not been accomplished is reaching volume production That is the actual hard thing. The last company, American company, to reach volume production was Chrysler in the '20s.我是说，首先，Tesla 究竟做成了什么……它不是创造或打造一个电动汽车原型，也不是小批量生产一辆车。历史上有过几百家汽车初创公司……实际上，Bloomberg 有一次数了一下，我记得数到了将近 500 家。所以难点不在于……或者进入小批量生产。真正极度困难的事情——至今没有人真正做到的——是达到大批量生产。那才是真正的难题。上一家做到量产的美国公司，是 Chrysler，在上世纪 20 年代。
Chris AndersonAnd it nearly happened to Tesla.Tesla 几乎也走到了那一步。
Elon MuskYes, but it's not like, oh, geez, I guess if we'd just done things would have been fine. Of course not. That is definitely not the case. So we basically messed up almost every aspect from cells to packs to drive inverters, motors, body line, the paint shop, Everything was messed up. I lived in the Fremont for three years, fixing that production line, running around like a maniac through every part of that factory. Living with the team. I slept on the floor, so the team, who was going could see me on the floor. That they knew that I was not When whatever pain是的，但那不是说，哦，唉，如果我们当时换一种做法就会没事了。当然不是。绝对不是这样。我们几乎每一个环节都搞砸了——从电芯到电池包，到驱动逆变器、电机、车身线、烤漆车间，每一样都出了问题。我在 Fremont 住了三年，修那条生产线，像个疯子一样跑遍工厂的每一个角落。和团队生活在一起。我睡在地板上，让那些一直加班的团队成员看到我就在地板上——让他们知道我并没有……无论他们承受什么痛苦……
Chris AndersonAnd some people who knew you well actually thought you were making that you were driving yourself And that you were in danger And in fact, I heard you that you, because of Tesla's huge the significance of every that you are in danger of sort of, spending all this time That doesn't sound super wise. Isn't there ... Your time, your completely sane, centered, rested time and decision making is more powerful and compelling "I can barely hold my eyes open." So surely it should be an absolute有些了解你的人确实认为你是在……你把自己逼得太狠，你处于危险之中。事实上，我听说你……因为 Tesla 的巨大意义，每一件事的重要性……你有陷入某种……把所有时间都耗在……的危险。这听起来不太明智。难道不应该……你的时间——完全清醒、冷静、休息好了的状态下做出的决策——才是最有力量、最有说服力的吗？"我连眼睛都快睁不开了。"所以这难道不应该是一条铁律吗？
Elon MuskI mean, there wasn't any other They were three years of hell. 2017, 2018 and 2019 were the longest period There wasn't any other way, And we were on the ragged edge It's not like I want the pain, I don't like it. Those were three -- So, so, so much pain. But it had to be done那时候根本没有别的办法。那是三年的地狱。2017、2018 和 2019 年是……最漫长的三年。没有其他办法，我们当时徘徊在崩溃的边缘……不是说我喜欢那种痛苦，我不喜欢。那三年……那种痛苦太深重了。但必须这么做。
Chris AndersonWhen you looked around the Gigafactory and just see where the company's come, do you feel that this challenge of figuring out the new way that you actually have an edge now, that you've figured out how to do this. And that those three years, You've actually figured out当你环顾这座 Gigafactory，看到公司走到今天，你有没有觉得，这个摸索出新方法的挑战，你现在已经掌握了优势，你已经弄清楚了怎么做。那三年……你确实已经搞明白了……
Elon MuskAt this point, I think I know than anyone currently alive on Earth. (Laughter) (Applause) I can tell you how every It's basically if you just you live in the factory (Music)在这一点上，我认为我比任何现在活着的人都更了解……（笑声）（掌声）我能告诉你每一个……基本上就是，只要你住在工厂里……（音乐）
Chris AndersonThat was nice.不错。
Elon MuskPoignant note to something. (Laughter)感人的音符。（笑声）
Chris AndersonSomeone wants to compose a symphony something like that. I have no idea what that is.有人想为这个谱一首交响曲……我完全搞不懂那是什么。
Elon MuskAnyway, yeah. Every aspect of a car,总之，对，一辆车的每一个方面……
Chris AndersonI mean, you talk about scale, right. You’re in the middle of writing and you've said that scale Why does scale matter? Why are you obsessed with it,我是说，你谈到规模，对。你正处于……的过程中，你说规模……规模为什么重要？你为什么对它那么痴迷？
Elon MuskYeah, well, see, in order to accelerate the advent there must be scale. Because we've got that is currently overly to a sustainable energy economy. One where the energy is -- Yeah, I mean, we've got to do it. (Applause) So the energy's got to be solar, hydro, geothermal, I’m a believer in nuclear And then since solar and wind you have to have stationary and then we've got to transition If we do those things, The faster we do those things, the less risk we put to the environment. So sooner is better. And so scale is very important. You know, it's not about fresh releases. It's about tonnage. What was the tonnage of batteries produced and obviously done in a sustainable way? And our estimate is that approximately is needed to transition transport, electricity and heating and cooling There may be some but our estimate is 300 terawatt hours.对，你看，要加速……的到来，必须有规模。因为我们现在……过于依赖……向可持续能源经济转型。一种能源……对，我是说，我们必须这么做。（掌声）所以能源必须来自太阳能、水电、地热……我相信核能……然后因为太阳能和风能……你必须有固定储能……然后我们必须过渡……如果我们做到这些，就能……我们越快做到，对环境的风险就越小。所以越早越好。因此规模非常重要。这不是关于新产品发布的事。是吨位。电池的生产吨位是多少，当然要以可持续的方式来实现。我们估算，大约……是实现交通、电力以及供暖制冷转型所需要的……可能有一些差异，但我们的估算是 300 太瓦时。
Chris AndersonSo we dug into this a lot that we recorded last week, so people can go in and hear that more. But I mean, the context is, the current installed battery capacity. I mean, the scale up needed And ... So your vision is to commit Tesla on a meaningful percentage And call on others to do the rest. This is a task for humanity to change the energy grid.这个问题我们在上周的录制中深入探讨过很多，大家可以去听。但我是说，背景是，目前已安装的电池容量……需要扩大的规模……而你的愿景是，让 Tesla 承担有意义的一部分……呼吁其他人来完成剩下的。这是全人类共同改变能源格局的任务。
Elon MuskYes. It's like basically how fast can we scale and encourage others to scale to get to that 300-terawatt-hour对。就是，我们能以多快的速度扩张，并鼓励其他人扩张，从而达到 300 太瓦时……
Chris AndersonRight.对。
Elon MuskAnd then, of course, to recycle those batteries, and it makes sense to recycle them because the raw materials People shouldn't think they can get recycled, because even a dead battery pack But this is what's needed So we're going to try to take a set and bring the day of a sustainable然后，当然，还要回收那些电池——而且回收是有意义的，因为原材料……人们不应该认为可以随便丢弃，因为即使是报废的电池组……但这就是我们所需要的。所以我们要尽力……迎来可持续能源……的那一天。
Chris AndersonOK. (Applause) There's going to be a huge interest when you publish that. Meanwhile, I just would love what goes on in this brain of yours, because it is a pretty unique one. I want to play, with your permission, Saturday Night Live. (Video) Thank you. Thank you very much. It's an honor to be hosting I mean that. Sometimes after I say something, (Laughter) So people really know that I mean it. That's because I don't always have in how I speak. (Laughter) Which, I'm told, makes for great comedy. (Laughter) I'm actually making history tonight as the first person (Applause and cheers) And I think you好的。（掌声）当你发布那份报告时一定会引起巨大关注。与此同时，我非常想了解你这颗大脑里在运转着什么，因为它实在与众不同。我想播放一段……在你允许的情况下——是《周六夜现场》的片段。（视频）谢谢大家。非常感谢。能来主持这个节目，我深感荣幸，我是认真的。有时候，在我说完一些话之后……（笑声）所以大家确实知道我是认真的，因为我的……在表达方式上并不总是……（笑声）据说，这造就了很好的喜剧效果。（笑声）今晚我其实在创造历史——作为第一个……的人。（掌声和欢呼）而且我认为你……
Elon MuskAt least the first person to admit it.至少是第一个承认这件事的人。
Chris AndersonThe first person to admit it. (Laughter) (Applause) So this was a brave thing to say. But I would love to understand like, whether you can give us what the experience was or as you now understand, Can you talk about that a bit?第一个承认这件事的人。（笑声）（掌声）说这话需要勇气。但我非常想了解……你是否能告诉我们那段体验是什么感觉，或者照你现在的理解……你能聊聊这个吗？
Elon MuskWell, I think everyone's experience But I guess for me, So I was just very bookish, I guess others could sort of, What was meant by something. I would just tend to take things as spoken, were exactly what they meant. But then that turned out to be wrong. They're not simply saying There's all sorts of other It took me a while to figure that out. I was, you know, bullied quite a lot. So ... I did not have a sort of, It was quite, quite rough. But I read a lot of books. I read lots and lots of books. And, you know, sort of, gradually understood more and watched a lot of movies and ... You know, just ... But it took me a while to understand things that most people我想每个人的体验都不一样……但就我而言，我小时候非常爱读书，而别人似乎能自然地……理解某件事背后的言外之意。我则倾向于把别人说的话当作字面意思，认为他们说的就是他们的意思。但后来发现不是这样的。他们并不只是在说表面的意思，里面还有各种各样其他的……我花了一段时间才弄明白这一点。我受了相当多的欺凌。所以……我没有那种……那段经历相当、相当艰难。但我读了很多书，大量大量的书。慢慢地了解更多，看了很多电影……就这样，慢慢地……但我花了很长时间才理解那些大多数人……
Chris AndersonSo I've wondered whether it's possible an incredible gift to you Inasmuch as ... Brain’s, you know, are plastic. And they go where the action is. And if for some reason the external which so many people spend so much time and mental energy obsessing over, if that is partly cut off, isn't it possible that that is partly to understand inwardly the world than most people do?所以我一直在想，这是否也是一种……对你而言是一份难以置信的礼物。因为……大脑是具有可塑性的。它会朝有活动的方向发展。如果出于某种原因，外部的……——那么多人花了大量时间和精神能量纠结其中的东西——如果这部分对你来说是部分隔绝的，那么这是否有可能……让你比大多数人更能够向内深刻地理解这个世界？
Elon MuskI suppose that's certainly possible. I think there's maybe some value also because I found it rewarding to spend all night programming And I think most people, most people don't enjoy typing by themselves all night. They think that's not fun. But I thought it was, I really liked it. So I would just program And I found that to be quite enjoyable. But I think that is not normal. (Laughter)我想这当然是有可能的。我认为也许还有另一方面的价值——因为我发现整晚写程序这件事本身就很有成就感。我觉得大多数人，大多数人都不享受自己一个人整晚打字。他们觉得那不好玩。但我觉得好玩，我真的很喜欢。我就只管写，写一整晚。我觉得这挺让人愉快的。但我认为这不正常。（笑声）
Chris AndersonI've thought a lot about ... It's a riddle to a lot of people how you've repeatedly innovated And you know, every entrepreneur and then acts to make that real. It feels to me like you see possibility and can connect the dots. So you see scientific possibility based on a deep understanding of physics and knowing what what the technologies are and where they could go, And then really unusually, you combine that of like what it actually would cost, is there a system you can imagine where you could and that ... sometimes you then get conviction Put those pieces together and you could do something amazing.我思考过很多……对很多人来说这是一个谜，你是如何一次又一次地创新……每一位创业者都……然后付诸行动让它成真。在我看来，你能看到可能性、能把各种点连接起来。所以你看到了科学上的可能性——基于对物理学的深刻理解，知道技术在哪里、它们能去向哪里——然后你非常罕见地，把它与……结合起来，比如实际上会花多少钱，能不能想象一套系统……然后有时候你会建立起信念……把这些拼图拼到一起，就能做出惊人的事情。
Elon MuskYeah, I think one aspect I was just absolutely obsessed with truth. Just obsessed with truth. And so the obsession with truth because physics attempts the truth of the universe. Physics is just, what are the provable And truths that have predictive power. So for me, physics was sort of, Nobody made me study it. I was intrinsically interested And then computer science or information theory also And, you know, That information theory is actually more fundamental level than even physics. So just yeah ... Physics and information theory对，我认为有一个方面……我只是对真相有着近乎绝对的痴迷。就是痴迷于真相。而这种对真相的痴迷……是因为物理学试图探求宇宙的真相。物理学说白了就是：哪些东西是可证明的……以及具有预测能力的真理。所以对我来说，物理学是……没有人强迫我学习它。我是发自内心地感兴趣……然后计算机科学或信息论也是如此……信息论实际上比物理学还要基础。所以就是……物理学和信息论。
Chris AndersonSo when you say truth, I mean, like, some people ... What you're talking about The fundamental truths it's like, a deep curiosity why we're here, simulation, we don't have time to go into that. But I mean, you’re just deeply, what this is for, what this is, this whole thing.你说真相的时候，我是说，有些人……你在讲的是……那些基本的真相，就像，一种深层的好奇心——我们为什么在这里，模拟假说，这些我们今天没时间深入讲。但我是说，你只是深深地……这一切是为了什么，这是什么，这整件事情。
Elon MuskYes, I think the why When I was in young teens, I got quite depressed And I was trying to sort of, I’m looking at, reading religious texts And I got into the German philosophers, which is definitely not wise It can be a bit dark. Much better read as an adult. And then actually, I ended up reading which is actually a book on philosophy just sort of disguised But it's actually a philosophy book. And Adams makes the point that it's actually the question You know, he sort of makes a joke That number does pop up a lot. And 420 is just 10 times 42.是的，我觉得这个"为什么"……当我还是个年轻的青少年时，我一度相当沮丧……我试图……我在读各种宗教文本……我也接触了德国哲学家，这绝对不是一个明智的选择，会有点阴暗。最好等成年后再读。然后实际上，我最后读到了……一本实际上是哲学书，只是伪装成了另一种形式的书。但它其实是本哲学书。Adams 的观点是，真正重要的其实是那个问题……他开了个玩笑，说那个数字频繁出现。而 420 正好是 42 的 10 倍。
Chris AndersonTen times more significant than 42.比 42 重要 10 倍。
Elon MuskBut, you know, you can make (Laughter) So there's no such thing as a perfect (Laughter)但你知道，你可以……（笑声）所以没有什么……（笑声）
Chris AndersonBut even more important That was the whole theme of that book. I mean, is that basically that it's the pursuit of questions?但更重要的是……那正是那本书整个的主题。我是说，基本上就是说追寻问题本身才最重要？
Elon MuskSo I have a sort of, or a motivating philosophy, which is to understand about the answer that is the universe. And to the degree that we expand biological and digital, we will be better able to frame these questions and to understand why we're here, what the heck is going on. And so that is my driving philosophy, is to expand the scope that we may better understand所以我有一种……一种驱动我的哲学，就是理解关于答案的一切——那个答案就是宇宙本身。而我们越是扩展……无论是生物层面还是数字层面，我们就会越有能力去构建这些问题，去理解我们为什么在这里，究竟是怎么一回事。所以那就是驱动我的哲学——扩展……的范围，以便我们能更好地理解……
Chris AndersonElon, one of the things (Applause) was seeing you hang out with your kids. Here's, if I may ...Elon，其中一件事……（掌声）是看到你和孩子们在一起。这是……如果可以的话……
Elon MuskHe looks vaguely like (Laughter) I mean, how do you know that's real? (Laughter)他长得有点像……（笑声）我是说，你怎么知道那是真实的？（笑声）
Chris AndersonSo that’s X, and it was just a delight What's his future going to be? I mean, I don't mean him personally, What future do you believe那是 X，看到这个真的让人愉快。他的未来会是什么样的？我不是指他个人，而是说，你相信……的未来会是什么样的？
Elon MuskWell, I mean, a very digital future. (Laughs) A very different world But I think we want to obviously to ensure that the future is good And that, you know, that the future is something and not feel sad about. You know, you want to get up and be excited about the future. And we should fight for the things You know, the future cannot just be solving one sad problem after another. There have got to be things Like, you want to live. These things are very important. You should have more of it.嗯，我是说，会是一个高度数字化的未来。（笑）一个截然不同的世界……但我认为我们显然要确保未来是美好的，让未来成为……某种人们不会感到悲伤的东西。你知道，你希望能够起床，对未来感到兴奋。我们应该为……而战。你知道，未来不能只是一个又一个悲伤问题的解决。必须有……让你想要活下去的东西。这些东西非常重要，应该有更多这样的东西。
Chris AndersonAnd it's not as if it's a done deal, like it's all to play for. Like, the future may be horrible. Still, there are scenarios but you see a pathway to an exciting future and in our minds through artificial I mean, in your heart of hearts, do you really believe that you are helping for X and for others?而且这不是板上钉钉的事，还有很多变数。未来可能会很糟糕。仍然存在那样的可能。但你看到了通往令人兴奋的未来的路径……在我们脑海中通过人工智能……我是说，在你内心深处，你真的相信你正在为 X 和其他人……做出贡献吗？
Elon MuskI mean, I'm trying I, you know, I love humanity, and I think that we should fight And I think we should be and fight to make (Applause)我是说，我在努力尝试。我……你知道，我热爱人类，我认为我们应该为……而战。我认为我们应该……为创造……而战。（掌声）
Chris AndersonElon, I think that's Thank you so much and for the work that you're doing. And good luck with finding a wise courseElon，我认为这……非常感谢你，以及你所做的一切工作。祝你在……中找到一条明智的道路。
Elon MuskAlright, thank you. (Applause)好的，谢谢。（掌声）