Host...he's a man who needs no introduction, but welcome, thanks for being here. Number one on the Vanity Fair New Establishment list — is that the highest honor you've ever had? Of course. That's right, the Nobels are announced — you're doing an announcement tomorrow, and the next day is a Nobel Prize. So if you get all three, that's a great trifecta. Let's talk about your announcement tomorrow. What is it you're going to announce?……这位嘉宾无需介绍，欢迎，感谢你的到来。Vanity Fair 新权贵榜第一名——这是你迄今获得的最高荣誉吗？当然了。没错，诺贝尔奖公布在即——你明天有个发布会，后天又是诺贝尔奖颁奖。如果你三者齐收，那真是完美的三连胜。我们来聊聊你明天的发布。你打算宣布什么？
Elon MuskI'm glad you asked. Well, I think I can give maybe one clue, which is that one of the things is already there and people don't realize it, so we just need to turn it on.很高兴你问这个。嗯，我想我可以给一个线索：其中一件事其实已经存在了，只是人们没有意识到，所以我们只需要把它开启就行。
HostYeah, wow, cool. And it'll be part of a new car? Okay, I used to be a journalist, I used to be good at this.哇，很酷。会是一款新车的一部分吗？好吧，我以前是记者，应该擅长这个的。
Elon MuskYeah, it'll be different from the current one. The some part of what I announce will be different from things in the past, obviously — it's an announcement — but I can't say. We're not going to talk about the Model 3 or the Model X.会和现在的有所不同。我宣布的一些内容跟过去的东西不一样，这很显然——毕竟是个发布——但我现在不能说。我们今天不会谈 Model 3 或 Model X。
HostThe Model 3 would be the $35,000 electric vehicle. You're going to talk about something that's labeled D?Model 3 就是那款 $35,000 的电动车。你要聊的是标着"D"的那个东西？
Elon MuskYeah, D, and then there's another thing which is — actually I would have said the other thing except it would have been too obvious, and that's the reason I didn't say. Now I can't say what the letter is, because...对，是 D，然后还有另一件事——其实我本来想说另一件事的，但那样太明显了，所以我没说。现在我也不能说那个字母是什么，因为……
HostOkay. And what does D stand for?好吧。那 D 代表什么？
Elon MuskI think the internet is very good at guessing these things, so they understand directionally — it's directionally correct, but the magnitude is not well appreciated yet.我觉得网上的人很擅长猜这种事，所以他们猜的方向是对的——方向是正确的，但量级还没被充分认识到。
HostAnd the magnitude of the something else too? Yeah, that's the really big one, the something else.那"另一件事"的量级也是如此？对，那才是真正的大事，"另一件事"。
Elon MuskI kind of got myself in trouble, because — you know, we had the Model S and the X, and then just for fun we tried to trademark the Model E, and then Ford sued us, or said they were going to sue us, so we had to change it to the Model 3. So it's S3X, you know. Totally different. And so, I guess when I say that we're about to unveil the D and something else, then it's — I kind of dug my own grave on that front.我有点给自己挖坑了——我们有 Model S 和 X，然后为了好玩我们试着注册 Model E 的商标，结果 Ford 说要起诉我们，所以我们不得不改成 Model 3。这样就是 S3X，懂吧，完全不一样。所以我猜当我说我们即将发布 D 和另一件事的时候……我算是在这方面自掘坟墓了。
HostYeah, well, we look forward to it. Why in the world are you doing this? I mean, what's impelling you to make an electric special car?好吧，我们拭目以待。不过你到底为什么要做这件事？是什么驱动你去造一辆特别的电动车？
Elon MuskI think it's important that we accelerate the advent of a sustainable transport future. So it's better if we move towards electric cars sooner rather than later, and then we can get away from burning oil. And obviously that needs to be paired with sustainable generation of power — that's where SolarCity comes in. But in order for humanity to have a good future this century, we have to figure out a way to sustainably produce and consume energy, and that's what Tesla and SolarCity are trying to be helpful in, in that regard.我认为加速推动可持续交通的未来非常重要。越早转向电动车越好，这样我们就能摆脱对石油的依赖。当然这还需要与可持续的电力生产配套——这就是 SolarCity 的用武之地。但要让人类在这个世纪拥有美好的未来，我们必须找到一种可持续生产和消费能源的方式，而 Tesla 和 SolarCity 正是在这方面努力做出贡献。
Elon MuskSo that's really the purpose of it. It's not as though I think that there's a need for another car company — there's plenty of good car companies, very competitive industry — but there is a need to show that electric cars can be better than gasoline cars, otherwise people will continue to buy gasoline cars.这才是真正的目的所在。并不是说我觉得这个世界需要又一家汽车公司——好的汽车公司已经很多了，这是个竞争非常激烈的行业——但确实有必要证明电动车可以比燃油车更好，否则人们还是会继续买燃油车。
HostWhen you say better — I'm going to push you back to where you didn't want to go, which is what you're announcing. Better means that it would be faster and stronger than a gas car, which we think electric cars cannot be?你说"更好"——我要把你拉回到你不想谈的话题，也就是你明天要宣布的东西。"更好"意味着它会比燃油车更快、更强，而我们一般认为电动车做不到这点？
Elon MuskYeah, it'll be bigger and faster.对，它会更大、更快。
HostOh, cool. Can I have one? I can't wait for that quote to be out there: 'about to unveil the D, it's bigger and faster.' Yeah, I know there have been a lot of jokes that Kara Swisher started today — we have to steer away, the conference called All Things D, you know.哦，太酷了。我能要一辆吗？迫不及待想看到那条引言流传出去："即将发布 D，更大更快。"对，我知道今天 Kara Swisher 已经引发了一堆玩笑——我们得绕开这个话题，毕竟有个大会就叫 All Things D，你知道的。
HostWhy did you give away, or open up, the intellectual property — the patents?你为什么要把知识产权——那些专利——开放出去？
Elon MuskOh, yeah. We sort of open-sourced patents in order to accelerate the advent of electric vehicles — that's the main reason. I think people think that maybe there was some competitive reason, or that this would somehow be helpful to Tesla, because more people would enter electric cars and somehow that would be a rising tide lifts all boats. But actually I think the open-sourcing of patents does slightly impair our competitive position on balance, but I'm hopeful that it generates enough goodwill to overcome that competitive impairment. I mean, I came to the conclusion, at least on a personal level, that patents were kind of like buying a lottery ticket to a lawsuit, you know, and so why would you want to do that?哦，对。我们对专利做了某种开源处理，主要目的是加速电动车的普及。我知道有人认为这背后有某种竞争方面的考量，或者说这对 Tesla 有好处，因为更多人进入电动车领域会形成"水涨船高"的效应。但说实话，我认为开源专利在整体上确实略微削弱了我们的竞争优势，不过我希望它带来的商誉足以弥补这一损失。我的意思是，至少在我个人层面，我得出的结论是：专利基本上就像买了一张诉讼彩票，那何必呢？
HostWhat drove you into the electric car business — was it really sustainability for the planet, or was it just the intellectual curiosity of it all?是什么把你带进了电动车这个领域——真的是为了地球的可持续发展，还是纯粹出于好奇心？
Elon MuskActually, so if you go back to like when I was first thinking about electric cars, it was in college, and it was really more from the standpoint of the need to transition to some transport means that was sustainable, independent of whether there was environmental impact or not. Because if we're burning oil to move, and that's not a renewable resource, then independent of any environmental impact we must find some alternative, or there will be economic collapse, and civilization would sort of crumble, because we have to, or revert, you know.其实，如果追溯到我最初思考电动车的时候——那是在大学里——更多是从"必须过渡到某种可持续交通方式"这个角度出发的，无论是否有环境影响都无所谓。因为如果我们靠燃烧石油来移动，而石油是不可再生资源，那么不管有没有环境影响，我们都必须找到替代方案，否则就会经济崩溃，文明也会逐渐崩解——我们必须找到出路，否则就得倒退。
Elon MuskSo that was actually originally why I was very interested in it, just because — I mean, I think from a physics standpoint it's really obviously the way to go is electric motors. I mean, kind of crazy to do something else, honestly. And then the environmental thing grew over time, and it became evident that the environmental impact was quite significant, because we're putting so much carbon into the atmosphere that we're fundamentally changing the chemical makeup of Earth's atmosphere, and the oceans too, because of the CO2 that gets absorbed into the water and creates carbonic acid.这才是我最初对它极感兴趣的原因——从物理学的角度来看，电动机显然是正确的方向，说真的，去搞别的反而有点离谱。后来，随着时间推移环保的因素越来越重要，也越来越明显地看到环境影响有多显著——我们往大气中排放了大量碳，从根本上改变了地球大气层的化学组成，也改变了海洋，因为 CO2 被水吸收后会形成碳酸。
Elon MuskSo if we don't take corrective action, the probability of a catastrophe will increase over time — eventually there's like certainty of a catastrophic outcome. And the longer it takes us to make that transition, the greater the probability of something bad happening. So when I think of Tesla, what's the fundamental good that Tesla can achieve — it would be to accelerate the advent of electric vehicles, perhaps by, fortunately, a decade or something like that, because it'll happen anyway, independent — even if Tesla was not around. So I would say that that's a really fundamental good. And since we're making cars, it seems like we should try to make really good cars, and maybe make the buying experience a lot more pleasant.如果不采取纠正措施，灾难发生的概率只会随时间不断增加——最终几乎可以确定会出现灾难性结果。我们花越长时间才完成这个过渡，坏事发生的概率就越高。所以当我想到 Tesla 能实现的根本价值——就是加速电动车的普及，也许能提前十年左右，因为即使没有 Tesla，电动车最终也会到来。我认为这是真正根本性的贡献。既然我们在造车，就应该努力造出真正好的车，也许还能让购车体验变得更愉快。
HostThere's a Peter Thiel line, as you know, about — we were promised flying cars but we got 140 characters. Do you think that other innovators, people not like yourself, aren't really shooting as high as they should be? When you're doing things from space shots to electric cars, do you think there should be flying cars?有一句 Peter Thiel 的名言——我们曾被承诺会有飞行汽车，但我们只得到了 140 个字符。你觉得其他创新者，那些不像你这样的人，是不是并没有把目标定得足够高？当你在做从太空探索到电动车这样的事情时，你觉得应该有飞行汽车吗？
Elon MuskYeah, okay.嗯，好的。
HostYeah, am I missing something? Gosh, I think that would be fun, don't you?对吧，我是不是漏掉了什么？天啊，我觉得那会很有趣，你不觉得吗？
Elon MuskI'm not sure. I mean, I think there should be vertical takeoff and landing supersonic air transport. Yeah, that obviously should be the case. We had that 30 years ago and now we don't.我不确定。我的意思是，我认为应该有垂直起降的超音速空中交通工具。对，这显然应该有。我们三十年前就有了，现在反而没了。
HostMeaning supersonic, sure. Yeah, no, it's kind of — innovation for big things has actually slowed down, it seems. Is that true?你说的是超音速，对。大型事物的创新确实好像放缓了，真的是这样吗？
Elon MuskI think whenever you have a large industry that is a monopoly or duopoly, the forcing function for innovation is weak, because innovation tends to come from new entrants to an industry, and if the barriers — like Tesla into the auto — when there are huge capital barriers to entry, then it's very difficult for new entrants to enter that industry. It's like being in a forest of giant redwoods. And in that situation, the innovation is weak.我认为，每当你有一个垄断或双头垄断的大型行业，创新的驱动力就会很弱，因为创新往往来自行业新进入者——就像 Tesla 进入汽车行业一样——当存在巨大的资本进入壁垒时，新进入者就很难进来。就像置身于一片参天红杉林里。在那种情况下，创新就会很疲弱。
Elon MuskI think it's fairly easy to understand this, because if you're say a senior executive in that company, or CEO let's say — if you do something incremental, you're very unlikely to be fired. If you do something bold and it doesn't work out, you're very likely to be fired. So then they do incremental things.这其实很容易理解，因为如果你是那家公司的高管，或者说是 CEO——如果你做一件渐进式的事情，你基本上不会被解雇。但如果你做了一件大胆的事情而没有成功，你很可能会被解雇。所以他们就做渐进式的事情了。
HostYou mentioned a moment ago the environmental sustainability thing, that's really big that you worry about. Your other big thing that you worry about is sort of machines getting out of control. Explain that — or the artificial intelligence singularity.你刚才提到了环境可持续性这个大问题，那是你很担忧的。你还担忧的另一件大事，大概是机器失控的问题。请解释一下——或者说，人工智能奇点问题。
Elon MuskYeah, I don't think most people understand just how quickly machine intelligence is advancing. It's much faster than almost anyone realizes, even within Silicon Valley, and certainly outside Silicon Valley people really have no idea.对，我觉得大多数人完全不理解机器智能正在以多快的速度发展。它比几乎所有人意识到的都要快得多，即使在硅谷内部也是如此，更别说硅谷之外的人了，他们真的毫无概念。
HostSo why is that dangerous?那为什么这是危险的？
Elon MuskI mean, if there's a super intelligent — particularly if it's engaged in recursive self-improvement, if there's some digital super intelligence and its optimization or utility function is something that's detrimental to humanity, then it will have a very bad effect. You know, it could be just something like getting rid of spam email or something, and it concludes, well, the best way to get rid of spam is to get rid of humans, you know.我是说，如果存在一个超级智能——尤其是如果它在进行递归自我改进——如果有某种数字超级智能，而它的优化或效用函数对人类有害，那后果就会非常糟糕。比如说，它的任务可能只是过滤垃圾邮件之类的小事，然后它推断出，嗯，消灭垃圾邮件最好的方法就是消灭人类，你知道吗。
HostBut why would we lose — sort of of spam, I know we've all watched HAL in 2001, but why would we lose control over our machines? There's no data point showing that our connection to machines has ever been loosened.但为什么我们会失去控制——先不说垃圾邮件，我知道大家都看过《2001太空漫游》里的 HAL，但我们为什么会失去对机器的控制？没有任何数据表明我们与机器的联系曾经被切断过。
Elon MuskActually, I think the thing to do would be to plot the progress of digital intelligence versus time, and then to maybe curve-fit or extrapolate that progress, and see where that leads.我认为应该做的事情是，把数字智能随时间推移的进展画出来，然后也许用曲线拟合或外推这一进展，看看它会走向哪里。
HostBut you're talking about machines that are not just intelligent but have intentionality — is that right? They have the intention of their utility function, which we programmed in, right?但你说的是不只有智能、还有意向性的机器——是这样吗？它们有我们编程进去的效用函数所带来的"意图"，对吗？
Elon MuskYes.是的。
HostOkay, but it can have unintended consequences. Is that propelling — no pun intended — your Mars mission ideas?好的，但它可能产生意想不到的后果。这是不是在推动——无意双关——你的火星任务构想？
Elon MuskNo, I think it's more likely than not that if there's some digital super intelligence apocalypse scenario, it would probably follow people to Mars — not necessarily, because of that utility function. If it simply has a utility function that is arbitrarily confined to Earth, it would be totally fine doing that. I mean, this is — it's just a...不，我认为如果真的出现某种数字超级智能末日场景，它很可能也会追随人类到火星——不一定，这取决于那个效用函数。如果它的效用函数只是被任意限定在地球范围内，那完全没问题。我是说，这只是……
HostSo let's get to the Mars mission. Why do you feel that is something we should be aiming at?好，我们来说说火星任务。你为什么觉得这是我们应该追求的目标？
Elon MuskI think the reason for Mars — there's two main reasons for Mars, or becoming a multiplanetary. I think one is the defensive reason: it's life insurance for life as a whole. And there's some value to having that, you know, in terms of a small percentage of our economic output — let's say half a percent, or maybe even less of our economic output, to ensure that the light of consciousness as we know it propagates into the future for a much longer period of time. So there's that defensive reason.我认为去火星的理由——或者说成为多行星物种的理由——有两个主要方面。其一是防御性的理由：这是整个生命的"人寿保险"。以我们经济产出的一小部分——比如说半个百分点，甚至更少——来确保我们所知的意识之光能在未来更长久地传播，这是值得的。这就是防御性的理由。
Elon MuskAnd this is the first time in four and a half billion years, since Earth was first formed, that it's been possible for life to move to another planet, to become multiplanetary. And that window may be open for a long time, or it may be open for a short time. I'm actually quite an optimistic person, so I'm hoping it will be open for a long time, but maybe it'll be open for a short time, in which case we should take action now and not delay.这是地球诞生以来四十五亿年中第一次，生命有可能迁移到另一个星球、成为多行星物种。这个窗口可能开放很长时间，也可能很短。我其实是个相当乐观的人，所以我希望它能开放很长时间，但如果只是短暂的，我们就应该现在采取行动，不要拖延。
HostYou've been a fan of science fiction books — have they actually influenced you?你是科幻书籍的粉丝——它们真的影响过你吗？
Elon MuskSure. I'll just say the other reason, which I actually find personally more motivating with respect to Mars, which is that it would just be the greatest adventure ever, and very exciting. And I think we need things in life that are exciting and inspiring. It can't just be about solving some awful problem — there have to be reasons to get up in the morning.当然。我还想说另一个理由，其实这个理由对我个人来说在火星这件事上更有驱动力——那就是这将是有史以来最伟大的冒险，非常令人兴奋。我认为我们的生活需要一些令人激动、令人振奋的事情。生活不能只是为了解决某些可怕的问题——得有让你每天早晨愿意起床的理由。
HostAnd I was talking about the books you've read and the science fiction — I noticed you're a science fiction fan. Do you think maybe you've read too much science fiction, maybe?我在说你读过的那些书和科幻作品——我注意到你是科幻迷。你有没有想过，也许你读太多科幻小说了？
Elon MuskThat's certainly possible. So, yeah, I mean, where we are right now is — I think on the SpaceX front we've made evolutionary but not revolutionary progress. We're hoping to make revolutionary progress in the coming years. But the key breakthrough that we aim for, or that we were aiming for, is to be able to have the rocket booster come back and land and be able to refly it again.这当然是可能的。目前来说，我认为在 SpaceX 这边，我们取得的是渐进式的进步，而不是革命性的。我们希望在未来几年内实现革命性的突破。我们所追求的关键突破是：让火箭助推器能够返回并着陆，然后重复使用。
HostWhy is that important? Because that's not the way we've been doing it, right? It's been expendable rockets up till now, really.为什么这很重要？因为我们一直不是这样做的，对吧？到目前为止基本上都是一次性火箭。
Elon MuskYeah, except for the space shuttle was partly reusable, but it was extremely difficult to refurbish for flight — you needed 10,000 people to work nine months to refurbish the space shuttle. So what we really need is rapid and complete reusability, like an aircraft or a car. Really any mode of transport besides rockets is reusable — you know, horse, bicycle, you can think of almost anything. But imagine if that mode of transport was not reusable: very unfortunate in the case of the horse. And even like in cars, if you could use a car once and you had to buy a new car every time you took a journey, you would not buy many cars, because it would be very expensive. So reusability essentially opens the door for reducing the cost of space flight by a factor of 100 or more.对，除了航天飞机是部分可重复使用的，但它的翻新维护工作极其困难——需要 10,000 名工作人员花九个月时间来翻新航天飞机。我们真正需要的是快速且完全的可重复使用性，就像飞机或汽车一样。几乎所有交通工具——马、自行车，你能想到的几乎什么都行——除了火箭，其他都是可重复使用的。试想如果那种交通工具不能重复使用：马的情况就很悲惨了。就算是汽车，如果你每次出行都必须买一辆新车，你买的车就会非常少，因为那会贵得离谱。所以可重复使用性从根本上打开了将太空飞行成本降低 100 倍或更多的大门。
HostAnd if you do this, how much of it will be government-funded? In a way, aren't you under a lot of contracts with government?如果你做到了这一点，其中有多少会是政府资助的？某种意义上，你现在不是已经有很多政府合同了吗？
Elon MuskYeah, in the beginning there was no government. I funded SpaceX entirely with the proceeds from PayPal, and we got our first government contract about five or six years after starting the company, from NASA. And I should say, NASA is maybe a quarter of our flights — three quarters are commercial. But the way we have been doing innovation in this country, especially starting with World War II, has always been a combination of government, private enterprise, universities.对，最初是没有政府的。我用 PayPal 套现的钱全额资助了 SpaceX，大约在公司成立五六年后，我们才拿到了来自 NASA 的第一份政府合同。应该说，NASA 大概占我们飞行任务的四分之一——四分之三是商业客户。但这个国家推动创新的方式，尤其是从二战开始，一直都是政府、私人企业和大学三者的结合。
HostAnd that is now dissipated — the government is not doing as much basic research. Do you think that's going to be a problem for the United States?而现在这种模式已经有所消退——政府做的基础研究没以前多了。你认为这对美国来说会是个问题吗？
Elon MuskWell, I think it governs us quite a lot. I'm not exactly sure whether we're at the right number for basic research. I mean, I'm a fan of research, so I'd probably be in favor of spending more money on that, allocating more resources to basic research. But I think the government's doing quite a bit — I mean, NASA is doing a lot of things. We've obviously got the rovers on Mars, we've got the Hubble telescope, the upcoming James Webb telescope, there are planetary probes and Earth science missions launching all the time. So NASA is doing quite a lot actually.嗯，我认为这对我们影响很大。我不太确定我们在基础研究上的投入是否处于合适的水平。我是研究的拥护者，所以我大概会倾向于在这上面多花钱、多投入资源。但我认为政府正在做相当多的事情——NASA 做了很多，火星上有漫游车，有哈勃望远镜，有即将发射的 James Webb 太空望远镜，各种行星探测器和地球科学任务也在不断发射。所以 NASA 其实做了相当多。
HostWhat other big things, like electric cars, space shots, whatever — do you dream of?除了电动车、太空探索这些之外，你还梦想着什么其他大事？
Elon MuskWell, I think it's space and cars a lot, obviously.嗯，太空和汽车当然占了很大一块，这是显然的。
HostWe've eliminated flying cars, so...我们已经排除了飞行汽车，所以……
Elon MuskWell, I'm not — I mean, I'm not sure about the flying cars. Not that I don't think there should be flying cars, I mean, but if the sky was full of cars flying all over the place, it would affect how things look, it would affect the skyline, and it would be noisier, and there would be a greater probability of something falling on your head.嗯，我不是很确定飞行汽车。不是说我认为不应该有飞行汽车，但如果天空里到处都是飞来飞去的车，会影响视觉景观，会影响天际线，会更嘈杂，而且有东西从天上掉到你头上的概率也会更高。
HostYes, right. Good arguments, you know, those are not good things.对，没错。说得有道理，这些都不是好事。
Elon MuskOn the other hand, you'd be able to go from one place to another faster. But I think actually, at least for — if you eliminate the choke points in cities, then there's really not that much traffic outside of the choke points. So you look at sort of in suburban streets, you don't see a lot of — I mean, the traffic doesn't choke things. It's really on the highways and major arteries, and it's because the cities grew way bigger than the major arteries.另一方面，你确实可以更快地从一个地方到另一个地方。但我实际上认为，至少——如果消除城市里的瓶颈节点，那么瓶颈之外其实并没有多少交通拥堵。你看郊区的街道，不会看到太多堵车——真正堵的是高速公路和主干道，原因在于城市的规模远远超出了这些主干道的承载能力。
HostAnd how would we fix that? Tunnels. Tunnels. What about autonomously driving cars — would that help?那怎么解决？隧道。隧道。那自动驾驶汽车呢——那能帮上忙吗？
Elon MuskThat would help, certainly.当然会有帮助。
HostI'm going to open it up, but I have one frivolous question while they bring the lights up. Everybody so far today has been touting how much they love Silicon Valley, the HBO show, and you said some bad things about it. Why don't you like it?我来开放提问，但在工作人员把灯打开的同时我有一个轻松的问题。今天到目前为止，所有人都在盛赞 HBO 剧集《硅谷》有多好，而你说了一些不好听的话。你为什么不喜欢它？
Elon MuskWell, first of all, I should say that — I mean, the article was not very accurate that was written. It was just one article, which was simply not an accurate article. So I thought it was okay. But I think Mike Judge did an amazing job with Office Space — like that's one of my favorite movies ever. And he may be here, so be nice.首先我得说——写那篇文章的内容不太准确，就只是那一篇文章，根本不准确。所以我觉得剧本身还好。但我认为 Mike Judge 凭《上班一条虫》做了一件了不起的事——那是我最喜欢的电影之一。他可能就在这儿，所以说话客气点。
HostGreat, he was here a few minutes ago, no problem.很好，他刚才还在这里，没问题。
Elon MuskAnyway, so a movie like Office Space just really nailed it. I don't think Silicon Valley the show quite nails it — it's not quite right. So that's my objection to it: it doesn't quite get it right, in my opinion. But I've heard that the later episodes are better — I saw the first two.总之，《上班一条虫》那部电影真的抓住了精髓。我不认为《硅谷》这部剧做到了同样的事——它不太对。所以我对它的异议就是：在我看来它没有完全拍对。不过我听说后面的剧集更好——我只看了前两集。
OtherYes, UC Berkeley. Hi. I used to work in large-scale renewable energy, mostly solar, and I was wondering, given all the release of the patents, of the batteries, and all the knowledge on small-scale renewables like SolarCity — is there something coming about like large renewable energy storage from all the batteries patents in Tesla?你好，加州大学伯克利分校。我之前从事大规模可再生能源工作，主要是太阳能。我想问，鉴于 Tesla 已经开放了电池相关的专利和 SolarCity 小型可再生能源的知识，关于 Tesla 电池专利在大规模可再生能源存储方面，是否有什么相关进展即将到来？
Elon MuskTesla is going to do stationary storage in a very large-scale way, because it's very important to pair battery packs with solar power, and for wind it's even more important. So with the Gigafactory that we're creating in Nevada, we're going to create many — well, probably tens of gigawatt hours per year of stationary storage on the battery front. So yeah, there's a light coming for sure.Tesla 将会以非常大的规模进军固定储能领域，因为将电池组与太阳能配套非常重要，对风能来说甚至更为重要。所以借助我们在内华达州正在建设的 Gigafactory，我们将在固定储能电池方面每年生产数十 gigawatt 时的产能。所以确实前景光明。
TinaHi, my name is Tina, I'm from China, so my question is relevant to the China market. In your perspective, how would you forecast about the electric vehicles, the demand in China, and how's the Tesla strategy in the coming year?你好，我叫 Tina，来自中国，我的问题与中国市场有关。从你的角度来看，你如何预测中国电动车市场的需求，以及 Tesla 在未来一年的战略是什么？
Elon MuskYeah, sure. I think things seem to be going fairly well in China. We've had a very enthusiastic response, and I think long-term it seems likely that China would be the biggest market for Tesla. So yeah, I'm really, really optimistic about things over there.好的，我认为在中国的情况进展相当不错。我们收到了非常热烈的反响，而且我认为从长远来看，中国很可能会成为 Tesla 最大的市场。所以我对那边的情况确实非常非常乐观。
TinaIs it going to be bigger than North America?它会比北美更大吗？
Elon MuskIt seems likely that it would likely be bigger than North America, yeah, in the long term.从长远来看，它似乎很可能会比北美更大，对。
TinaAnd how about the government regulations and the local competitors there?那政府监管和当地竞争对手方面呢？
Elon MuskThe government's been pretty good. I mean, there is certainly, in terms of the incentive structure, it does favor local production. But overall, I think it's not been too much of an issue — the government's been great so far.政府方面还是相当不错的。当然，就激励机制的结构来说，确实偏向于本地生产。但总体而言，这并没有造成太大的问题——政府到目前为止一直很好。
ManuYeah, thank you. Hi, I'm Manu, I'm a sophomore at Stanford. All of your work has been bringing people from place A to B in the fastest and the most environmentally friendly manner. There's also another kind of research happening in the Valley where people are trying to avoid transportation at all — we call it virtual reality. So I can be in my dorm and I can see you speaking with the same level of contact on my Oculus Rift as I am here right now, taking the car or the Tesla or even a SpaceX rocket in the future. How do you think will virtual reality tie in the future of transportation, which you are working on? Thank you.谢谢。你好，我是 Manu，斯坦福大学大二学生。你所有的工作都是在以最快、最环保的方式把人从 A 点送到 B 点。硅谷里还有另一种研究，是要完全避免实体移动——我们叫它虚拟现实。我可以待在宿舍里，通过 Oculus Rift 以几乎相同的临场感看你讲话，就像我现在坐在这里一样，不需要开车、坐 Tesla，甚至将来坐 SpaceX 火箭。你认为虚拟现实将如何与你正在从事的交通未来相结合？谢谢。
Elon MuskWell, maybe we're in a simulation right now. Yeah. Seriously — some feels like that. Yeah, I mean, I think from what I've heard of Oculus Rift and some of the other immersive technologies, that it's quite transformative. You really feel like you're there, and then when you come out of it, it feels like reality isn't real. So I think we'll see probably less physical movement in the future as a result of the virtual reality stuff.也许我们现在就在一个模拟中。真的——有时感觉确实是这样。我的意思是，根据我听说的关于 Oculus Rift 和其他一些沉浸式技术的情况，那种体验相当具有变革性。你真的感觉自己身临其境，然后从中出来时，反而觉得现实好像不真实了。所以我认为，受到虚拟现实技术的影响，未来实体移动很可能会减少。
ManuAnd when we come out of what we're here now into this virtual reality, we'll think it's real.当我们从现在所处的现实进入那个虚拟现实之后，我们会以为那才是真实的。
Elon MuskWell, I mean, there's some interesting things here on the virtual reality front. And just on the whole notion of a simulation, which is that if you just extrapolate into the future and say, well, how good — let's say — will video games be in 100 or 200 or 1,000 years from now, if there's continued improvement, and you're in a full body haptic suit with a sort of surround vision, it becomes, beyond a certain resolution, indistinguishable from reality. And there will likely be millions, maybe billions, of such simulations. So then what are the odds that we're actually in base reality? Isn't it one in billions?在虚拟现实这个议题上确实有一些有趣的东西。关于模拟这个概念——如果你只是把时间轴往前延伸，想想一百年、两百年或一千年后的电子游戏会有多逼真——如果技术持续进步，你穿着全身触感套装、处于全景视觉环境中，分辨率超过某个阈值之后，就会与现实无法区分。而这样的模拟可能会有数百万、甚至数十亿个。那么我们实际上身处基础现实的概率是多少？岂不是十亿分之一？
ManuIs it? I mean — give... I can give the counter argument, but I'd rather you give the counter argument.是吗？我可以给出反驳论点，但我更想听你来给出反驳论点。
Elon MuskIt obviously — this feels real, but it may — I mean, it seems unlikely to be real.这显然——感觉是真实的，但它可能……我是说，似乎不太可能是真实的。
DanielleMy name is Danielle, I'm an architect from Palo Alto. I just completed a net-zero passive house and I'm now a fellow at the Stanford Business School, and I'm working with a group of students on a project to come up with the most innovative ways to solve big problems in cities, and we've identified Detroit as our prime target. Two questions: what do you see as city-wide innovation? And since women don't ask, as we're taught, I'm going to ask: would you come down to Stanford and brainstorm on this with us?我叫 Danielle，是帕洛阿尔托的一位建筑师。我刚完成了一栋净零排放被动式住宅，目前在斯坦福商学院做研究员，正和一组学生合作一个项目，专注于为城市大问题找出最具创新性的解决方案，我们选定底特律作为主要目标。有两个问题：你认为城市层面的创新应该是什么样的？另外，因为女性往往被教导不要主动开口，所以我直接问：你愿意来斯坦福和我们一起头脑风暴吗？
Elon MuskThis may sound trite, but I honestly think tunnels should be given a lot more consideration. So I mean, if you look at a city, you have all these apartment buildings and office buildings and there are many levels — like they're, you know, an average in Manhattan, I don't know what it is, an average of like 30 stories or something like that. But then you've got a street which is one story. This is an obvious issue — like you have a 30-to-1 ratio. So you should have multi-layered highways.这听起来可能老生常谈，但我真的认为隧道应该得到更多重视。如果你看一座城市，有各种公寓楼和写字楼，有很多层——比如曼哈顿平均可能有三十层左右。但街道只有一层。这显然是个问题——你有 30 比 1 的比例差。所以应该有多层高速公路。
HostYeah, underground, stacked up.对，地下，一层一层叠起来。
Elon MuskYeah, and you can have tunnels — the tunnels don't have to follow the buildings, they can go diagonally through the basement.对，而且隧道不必非得跟地面建筑对齐，可以斜穿地下。
HostYeah, and you can have as many levels as you want.对，而且你可以建任意多层。
Elon MuskSo it's really just the cost of building the tunnels. But really, a tunnel is a hole in the ground — like, how hard can it really be, I mean? So it seems like if some urban planner put their effort into building tunnels, you know, it could effectively be transformative to cities around the world. I'll certainly consider coming, giving a talk — I mean, I'm in Palo Alto every week, so certainly be open to it, sure.所以真正的问题就只是建造隧道的成本。但说实话，隧道不就是挖个地洞——能有多难呢？所以感觉如果有城市规划者认真投入去建隧道，那真的可以对全球城市产生变革性的影响。我肯定会考虑去做个演讲——我每周都在帕洛阿尔托，所以完全可以，没问题。
HostWhat other things besides, you know, tunnels, hyperloops — you've talked about other things that are great visions that could transform a daily, what we call reality, which I assume is reality for the moment.除了隧道、超级高铁这些之外——你谈到过其他一些可以改变我们日常生活的伟大愿景，这里我们姑且称之为"现实"。
Elon MuskYeah, I mean, within cities it's sort of tunnels, tunnels and tunnels and tubes. And for long-distance travel, I really think that the vertical takeoff and landing electric supersonic aircraft is the way to go, and I think it's very doable. So that would be the way to go for long-distance transportation — like for, if you're going more than like 500 miles, because then you solve the any-to-any problem of long distance.对，在城市内部，方案就是隧道、隧道还是隧道和管道。而对于长途旅行，我真的认为垂直起降的电动超音速飞机才是正确方向，而且我认为这完全可以实现。所以对于长途交通来说，超过大约 500 英里的旅程，这就是该走的路，因为它解决了长途点对点的问题。
Elon MuskFor shorter distances, because you have a time to climb and a time to descend penalty, below 500 miles aircraft are not as good. So that's why I think some sort of evacuated tube is a better way to travel.而对于较短的距离，因为飞机有爬升和下降所需的时间损耗，在 500 英里以内，飞机并不那么占优势。所以我认为某种抽真空管道是更好的选择。
HostWhat is an evacuated tube?抽真空管道是什么？
Elon MuskWell, you know, just something where you've reduced the air density, so the drag is dramatically reduced. Then it's as though you got teleported to altitude, right, and you can go much faster, and not have to have the climb and descend issues.就是一种降低了空气密度的管道，这样阻力就会大幅减小。效果就像你被瞬间传送到了高空一样，可以跑得快得多，也不需要经历爬升和下降的麻烦。
LawrenceHi, I'm Lawrence, I'm a sophomore at Stanford and I run a music startup. We all know that you have all those really crazy ideas, in the best way possible, but how do you come up with those ideas? Could you tell me more about your creative process? And also, once you have those great ideas, how do you go about capitalizing those really ambitious ideas if you have very few, limited financial resources?你好，我叫 Lawrence，斯坦福大学大二学生，在做一个音乐创业项目。大家都知道你有那些真的很疯狂的想法——是好的那种疯。但你是怎么想出这些主意的？能跟我聊聊你的创意过程吗？还有，一旦有了这些很棒的想法，当你资源有限、资金不足的时候，你是怎么把这些雄心勃勃的想法落地的？
Elon MuskWell, I think the great thing about sort of software, or anything which just involves intellectual capital — capital of you and your friends, you and a few friends — is that you can just do it. So that's why doing some sort of internet thing or software thing is great as an initial company to create. That's why it's — Zip2 and PayPal, they gave me the capital to attempt to do more capital-intense activities.嗯，我认为软件，或者任何只涉及智识资本——你和朋友们的智识资本——的好处在于，你就可以直接去做。这就是为什么做某种互联网或软件的事情，作为最初创立的公司是很好的选择。这也是为什么——Zip2 和 PayPal 给了我资本，让我得以尝试做更资本密集型的事情。
Elon MuskI mean, as far as idea generation, I tend to think of things from a sort of physics standpoint, like from a first principles standpoint — what would be the best way to accomplish something, and then pursue that. And that's also a good way to determine if something's far from its optimum. Like on rockets, for example, one could reason by analogy and say the rocket's going to cost a certain amount because that's what prior rockets have cost. Or you can say, well, what is a rocket made of, what are the material constituents, what do they weigh, what's the cost per unit mass — and that sets the limit asymptotically for what a rocket can be. So if you can figure out some creative way to rearrange those elements into a rocket shape, then you can achieve a much better outcome. That's the first principles approach.至于想法的产生，我倾向于从物理学的角度——也就是第一性原理的角度——来思考问题：完成某件事情的最佳方式是什么，然后去追求它。这也是判断某件事是否距离最优解还很远的好方法。比如火箭，你可以类比推理说火箭会花多少钱，因为以前的火箭就是那个价。或者你也可以说，好，火箭是由什么构成的，材料成分是什么，重量多少，每单位质量的成本是多少——这从渐近意义上设定了火箭成本的下限。所以如果你能找到某种有创意的方式把这些元素重新排列成火箭的形状，你就能实现更好的结果。这就是第一性原理方法。
Elon MuskAnd I think also just combining ideas from different industries is really helpful for innovation. So what have people discovered in one industry, and can that be applied to other industries — that's, I think, also a great source of ideas. But usually you just struggle on a solution, and you try a bunch of things, some of them don't work — most of them don't work — and occasionally one does.我还认为，把不同行业的想法结合起来对创新真的很有帮助。某个行业里人们发现的东西，能不能应用到其他行业——我认为这也是伟大想法的来源之一。但通常情况下，你只是在苦苦摸索解决方案，尝试了一堆东西，很多都不起作用——大多数都不起作用——偶尔有一个成了。
HostYou mentioned the startup of PayPal, which is a great innovation that happened in sort of how we pay for things. That seems to me an area in which it hasn't been as much subsequent innovation, other than Bitcoin, as it should be — in other words, quickly transferring money, especially to people you don't know or whatever, is to me, maybe I'm wrong, far more difficult than it seems like it should be. Are you somewhat disappointed with the way PayPal then proceeded, or are you disappointed with the lack of innovation in the digital currency environment?你刚才提到了 PayPal 的创业，那是一项了不起的创新，改变了我们的支付方式。在我看来，这个领域之后除了 Bitcoin 之外，并没有出现应有的那么多后续创新——换句话说，快速转账，尤其是转给陌生人，在我看来比它应该有的难度更大。你对 PayPal 此后的发展走向是否有些失望，或者对数字货币领域的创新匮乏是否有些失望？
Elon MuskYeah, PayPal has definitely — I mean, it hasn't moved much since when it was sort of bought by eBay. The long-term vision that I had for PayPal, or sort of in finance, was to — well, it sounds a bit strange — to convert the financial system from a series of heterogeneous, insecure databases to one database, or well, not one database, but maybe there'd be like a few more. The money is just a number in a database, that's what it is, and it's primarily an information mechanism for labor allocation. And the current databases are not very efficient — there are these old legacy mainframes that don't talk to each other very well, have poor security, and only do batch processing once a day.对，PayPal 确实——我是说，自从被 eBay 收购之后就没怎么动过了。我对 PayPal 或者说金融领域的长期愿景是——这听起来有点奇怪——把金融系统从一系列异构的、不安全的数据库，转变为一个统一的数据库，或者说，不是一个，可能会有几个。钱本质上只是数据库里的一个数字，就是这样，它主要是一种用于劳动力分配的信息机制。而现有的数据库效率非常低——那些老旧的遗留主机系统彼此沟通不畅、安全性差，而且每天只做一次批量处理。
HostAre you glad PayPal is being spun off?PayPal 被拆分出去，你高兴吗？
Elon MuskIt's probably the right move.可能是正确的选择。
HostAnd what would you do with it?如果是你来掌舵，你会怎么做？
Elon MuskWell, I think I'd convert it into more of a full-service financial institution. So you want to do all the things that a consumer — you want to have all the financial services that somebody needs in one place, seamlessly integrated together and easy to use. And I think really, really care about the consumer — I think a lot of banks don't seem to care that much about the customer. So I think there's an opportunity to be like a really good bank effectively, but much more than what people think of it.嗯，我想我会把它打造成更接近全服务金融机构的东西。你想把消费者需要的所有金融服务集中在一个地方，无缝整合在一起，使用简便。而且我认为要真正、真正关心消费者——很多银行似乎并不那么在乎客户。所以我认为这里有机会成为一家真正好用的银行，但要远比人们对它的期待更多。
HostDo you think Bitcoin will be disruptive in that way? I mean, now it's a speculative currency. Will it be something that normal consumers will use and will disrupt the banking industry?你认为 Bitcoin 会在这方面产生颠覆性影响吗？我是说，现在它更像是一种投机性货币。它未来会成为普通消费者使用、并颠覆银行业的东西吗？
Elon MuskMy opinion on Bitcoin is that — I mean, I think Bitcoin is probably a good thing, but it's essentially — its main thing will be — this will probably get quoted here and there, but I think it's primarily going to be a means of doing illegal transactions. But that's not necessarily entirely bad, because, you know, some things should maybe not be illegal.我对 Bitcoin 的看法是——我认为 Bitcoin 大概是件好事，但它从本质上——它最主要的用途——这句话大概会被到处引用——我认为它主要会被用来进行非法交易。但这不一定完全是坏事，因为有些事情也许本来就不该是违法的。
HostSo the combination of Silk Road and Bitcoin will save us.所以 Silk Road 和 Bitcoin 的组合会拯救我们。
Elon MuskWell, it will be used for legal and illegal transactions, otherwise it would have no value as a use for legal transaction, because you have to have a legal-to-illegal bridge. I don't own any Bitcoin, by the way.嗯，它会被用于合法和非法的交易，否则它作为合法交易手段就没有价值，因为你必须有一座合法与非法之间的桥梁。顺便说一下，我自己没有持有任何 Bitcoin。
HostWe — I'll let you get the last word, sir. I promise it'll be fast.我让你说最后一句话，先生。我保证会很快的。
Bob SheikhBob Sheikh from Thomson Reuters. India just launched a mission to Mars — $75 million to get that thing. Was it, as Astro Teller said, a miracle, or is there something fundamental about the Indian space industry that allowed them to do a mission like that for so cheap? And if so, is there something that we can pick up and learn from that?Bob Sheikh，来自 Thomson Reuters。印度刚刚发射了一个火星探测任务——耗资 $75 million。这是 Astro Teller 所说的那种"奇迹"，还是印度航天工业有什么本质性的东西让他们能以如此低的成本完成这样的任务？如果是的话，我们有什么可以学习借鉴的？
Elon MuskI think it's a very impressive mission, given that it was executed by a government entity — that's like really, really impressive. I mean, impressive no matter who's doing it, but from a cost standpoint impressive because it's being done by a government entity. Ultimately, we have to be able to do missions to Mars for much less than that, otherwise it'll be impossible to establish a self-sustaining civilization on Mars, because we'll have to transport millions of tons of cargo, millions of people, and the cost of moving to Mars has to be affordable, otherwise people won't be able to go. So it has to ultimately come down by a couple orders of magnitude from that level.我认为这是一个非常令人印象深刻的任务，考虑到它是由一个政府机构执行的——那真的是非常非常了不起。不管是谁做，这都令人印象深刻，但从成本角度来说更加令人印象深刻，因为它是由政府机构完成的。但最终，我们必须能够以比那低得多的成本执行火星任务，否则就不可能在火星上建立一个自给自足的文明，因为我们需要运输数百万吨货物、数百万人，而移居火星的成本必须是人们负担得起的，否则人们就无法去。所以最终成本必须从那个水平再降低几个数量级。
HostSub a million — sub a million dollars, then a couple orders of magnitude?低于百万——低于百万美元，那还要再降几个数量级？
Elon MuskI'd say below — well below a million, yeah.我会说低于——远低于一百万，对。
HostElon Musk, great innovator, thank you very much, and good luck tomorrow. We'll be looking to see what was right under our nose when you announce it tomorrow, sir. Right.Elon Musk，伟大的创新者，非常感谢，明天的发布会祝你好运。我们期待看到那个一直就在我们眼皮底下的东西，先生。对。
Elon MuskGood, thank you.好的，谢谢。