Larry FinkThat was not a large applause. Start again. That's better. Thank you. Yeah, we're going to make this interesting.掌声不够热烈。重来一次。好多了。谢谢。好，我们要让这场对话变得有趣。
Larry FinkHow many quotes are you going to want that are going to be after this session?这场讨论结束之后，你希望留下多少条可以引用的金句？
Elon MuskUh, I don't know. I mean, five.呃，不知道。我是说，五条吧。
Larry FinkOkay. So, good afternoon everyone. It's great to see everybody here. It's been an amazing week here in Davos. Hopefully everybody saw that we are having conversations here. Hopefully everybody agrees there are some conversations that we may disagree, there's many conversations we may have agreed. But through those conversations, and I think today's result with a peace agreement earlier today, the World Economic Forum is here to have those conversations, to have understandings and also resolution. So it's an important component of who we and what we are, and I'm thrilled to have Elon Musk here. He came all the way from California to be here to see all of you. So thank you, Elon.好。那么，下午好，各位。很高兴见到大家。达沃斯这一周真的很精彩。希望大家都感受到了，我们在这里进行了很多对话。有些观点我们意见相左，有些我们达成共识。但正是通过这些对话——我认为今天早些时候达成的和平协议正是明证——世界经济论坛就是为了让这些对话发生、促进相互理解、推动问题解决而存在的。这是我们使命的重要组成部分。我非常高兴能邀请到 Elon Musk 来到这里。他专程从加利福尼亚飞来与大家相聚。Elon，谢谢你。
Elon MuskUh, you're most welcome. Yeah. I mean, I heard about the formation of the peace summit, and I was like, is that P-I-E-C? You know, little piece of Greenland, a little piece of Venezuela. We got one. All we want is peace.哪里哪里。是的，我听说了和平峰会的事，当时心想——那个"和平"是 P-I-E-C-E 那个 peace 吧？格陵兰割一块，委内瑞拉割一块，就这样了。我们要的只是"和平"嘛。
Larry FinkOkay. I'm going to, as I said, I'm a pretty proud CEO of BlackRock. Since we went public, the compounding return of BlackRock to our shareholders is 21%. Since Elon took Tesla public, his compounded return is 43%. This is just another advertisement for everybody, especially for Europeans. This is why more citizens should be investing with growth, investing with their countries. Imagine if a lot of pension funds invested with Elon when Tesla went public and how much return with all the pension funds that invested side by side with Elon and the growth. So a spectacular return. There's very few companies — well, I don't think there's any other company as large as Tesla today that has that compounded return. So congratulations.好。我得说，我是 BlackRock 的 CEO，对此相当自豪。自上市以来，BlackRock 给股东带来的复合回报率是 21%。自 Elon 将 Tesla 带上市以来，他的复合回报率是 43%。这其实是给所有人——尤其是欧洲人——的一个启示：这就是为什么更多公民应该把钱投入到成长型企业、投入到本国发展中去。想象一下，如果很多养老基金在 Tesla 上市时就跟投 Elon，今天会有多丰厚的回报——所有与 Elon 并肩投资、共享增长的养老基金。这是非常惊人的回报。在这个体量的公司里，我想不出还有哪家能做到这样的复合回报率。祝贺你。
Elon MuskThank you.谢谢。
Larry FinkIt's a good measurement.这是个很好的衡量标准。
Elon MuskWell, we have an incredible team at Tesla and that's the reason.Tesla 有一支了不起的团队，这才是真正的原因所在。
Larry FinkSo I want to get into the dirt, the meaningful component about technology, the possibilities. I want to talk about AI and robotics, energy, space, and the progress ultimately coming down to engineering — engineering discipline, scale, execution. And few people, if not anyone, has the experience and the fortitude to confront these issues head on, not just the ideas but the execution across so many different technologies, Elon. And that's why I thought it was important for us to have this dialogue here in Davos. So you're presently building on AI, on robotics, on space, on energy, all at the same time. When you look across those efforts, what do they have in common from an engineering standpoint?那我想深入聊聊实质内容，聊聊技术以及它带来的可能性。我想谈 AI 和机器人、能源、太空，以及最终落脚到工程上的种种进展——工程纪律、规模化、执行力。没有多少人，甚至可以说没有任何人，能像 Elon 这样，在横跨如此多不同技术领域时，既有亲身经历又有正面迎击挑战的胆魄——不只是提出想法，而是真正落地执行。这也是我认为在达沃斯与你进行这场对话非常重要的原因。你目前同时在做 AI、机器人、太空和能源。从工程的角度来看，这些事业有什么共同之处？
Elon MuskWell, they're all very difficult technology challenges, but the overall goal of my companies is to maximize the future of civilization — basically maximize the probability that civilization has a great future — and to expand consciousness beyond Earth. So if you take SpaceX for example, SpaceX is about advancing rocket technology to the point where we can extend life and consciousness beyond Earth, to the moon, to Mars, eventually to other star systems.呃，它们都是极具挑战性的技术难题，但我旗下公司的总体目标是：最大化文明的未来——从根本上说，就是最大化文明拥有美好未来的概率——同时把意识拓展到地球之外。以 SpaceX 为例，SpaceX 的使命是推进火箭技术，直到我们能够把生命和意识延伸到地球之外——去月球、去火星，最终抵达其他恒星系。
Elon MuskAnd I think we should always view consciousness, life as we know it, as precarious and delicate, because to the best of our knowledge we don't know of life anywhere else. You know, I'm often asked, are there aliens among us? And I'll say that I am one, but they don't believe me.我认为我们应该始终把意识、把我们已知的生命，视为脆弱而珍贵的存在，因为就我们目前所知，我们还不知道地球之外是否存在生命。你知道，人们经常问我：我们之中有外星人吗？我每次都说：有，就是我。但没人相信。
Larry FinkOr you're from the future.或者说你来自未来。
Elon MuskThey don't believe me. Okay. So, but I think if anyone would know if there are aliens among us, it would be me. And we have 9,000 satellites up there, and not once have we had to maneuver around an alien spaceship. So I'm like, I don't know. Bottom line is I think we need to assume that life and consciousness is extremely rare and it might only be us. And if that's the case, then we need to do everything possible to ensure that the light of consciousness is not extinguished.没人相信我。好吧。但我觉得，如果有人能知道我们之中是否存在外星人，那个人一定是我。我们天上有 9,000 颗卫星，从来没有一次需要我们为外星飞船让路。所以我就觉得——我不知道。总之，我认为我们必须假设生命和意识极其罕见，也许只有我们独此一家。如果真是这样，那我们就必须竭尽全力，确保意识的光芒不被熄灭。
Elon MuskBecause we're effectively — the way I view it, the image in my mind is of a tiny candle in a vast darkness, a tiny candle of consciousness that could easily go out. And that's why it's important to make life multiplanetary, such that if there is a natural disaster or a man-made disaster on Earth, that consciousness continues. That's the purpose of SpaceX.因为我实际上——在我脑海中，有一个画面：茫茫黑暗中的一支微弱烛光，一点随时可能熄灭的意识之火。这就是为什么让生命成为多星球物种如此重要——一旦地球发生自然灾害或人为灾难，意识能够延续下去。这就是 SpaceX 存在的意义。
Elon MuskTesla is obviously about sustainable technology, and also at this point we've sort of added to our mission sustainable abundance. So with robotics and AI, this is really the path to abundance for all. People often talk about solving global poverty, or essentially how do we give everyone a very high standard of living? I think the only way to do this is AI and robotics.Tesla 显然是关于可持续技术的，同时在这个阶段，我们也为使命增添了一项内容：可持续的丰盛。借助机器人和 AI，这才是真正让所有人都走向富足的路径。人们常常谈论消除全球贫困，或者说如何让所有人都拥有很高的生活水准。我认为，唯一的途径就是 AI 和机器人技术。
Elon MuskWhich doesn't mean that it is without its issues. I mean, we need to be very careful with AI. We need to be very careful with robotics. We don't want to find ourselves in a James Cameron movie. You know, Terminator — he's great, great movies, love his movies, but we don't want to be in Terminator obviously. But if you have ubiquitous AI that is essentially free or close to it, and ubiquitous robotics, then you will have an explosion in the global economy, an expansion in the global economy that is truly beyond all precedent.这并不意味着它没有问题。我是说，我们需要对 AI 非常谨慎，对机器人技术也要非常谨慎。我们不想活进 James Cameron 的电影里。《终结者》——他是个很伟大的导演，我很爱他的电影，但我们显然不想活进《终结者》。但如果你有无处不在、几乎免费的 AI，再加上无处不在的机器人，全球经济将会迎来爆炸式增长、前所未有的扩张。
Larry FinkElon, can that expansion be broad? Or is it narrow? And how can that be created? How can it broaden the global economy?Elon，这种扩张能惠及广大人群吗？还是只是少数人受益？它是如何拓宽全球经济的？
Elon MuskYeah, I mean, a way to think of it is that if you have a large number of humanoid robots, the economic output is the average productivity per robot times the number of robots, right? And actually my prediction is, in the benign scenario of the future, that we will actually make so many robots and AI that they will actually saturate all human needs. Meaning you won't be able to even think of something to ask the robot for at a certain point. There will be such an abundance of goods and services, because my prediction is there'll be more robots than people.是的，一个理解方式是这样的：如果你拥有大量人形机器人，总体经济产出等于每台机器人的平均生产力乘以机器人的数量，对吧？实际上，我的预测是——在未来的良性情景下——我们会制造出太多太多的机器人和 AI，多到完全满足人类所有的需求。意思就是，到某个时刻，你甚至想不出还有什么事情可以吩咐机器人去做。商品和服务会极大富足，因为我预测机器人的数量将会超过人类。
Larry FinkBut how do you then have human purpose in that scenario?但在那种情景下，人类的意义和目的感从哪里来？
Elon MuskYeah, I mean, you know, nothing's perfect, you know, but it is a necessary — like, you can't have both. You can't have work that has to be done and amazing abundance for all. Because if it's work that has to be done, and only some people can do it, then you can't have abundance.是啊，我是说，没有什么是完美的，但这是一个必然的取舍——鱼和熊掌不可兼得。你不能既有必须由人来完成的工作，又让所有人都享有惊人的丰盛。因为如果是必须由人来做的工作，而只有部分人能做，那就不可能实现真正的富足。
Larry FinkThen it's narrow.那就只是少数人的富足。
Elon MuskIt's narrow, exactly. So, but if you have billions of humanoid robots — and I think there will be — I think everyone on Earth is going to have one and going to want one. Because, you who wouldn't want a robot to, you know, assuming it's very safe, watch over your kids, take care of your pet. If you have elderly parents — a lot of friends of mine said they have elderly parents, it's very difficult to take care of them.对，完全正确。所以，但如果你有数十亿台人形机器人——我认为会有——我想地球上每个人都会拥有一台、而且都会想要一台。毕竟谁不想要一个机器人呢——假设它非常安全——帮你看孩子、照顾宠物。很多朋友跟我说他们有年迈的父母，照料他们真的很难。
Larry FinkExpensive.而且很贵。
Elon MuskYeah, it's expensive. And there just aren't enough people to take care of them — there aren't enough young people to take care of the old people, right? So if you had a robot that could take care of and protect an elderly parent, I think that would be great. That would be an amazing thing to have. And I think we will have those things. So I mean overall I'm very optimistic about the future. I think we're headed for a future of amazing abundance, which is very cool. And definitely we are in the most interesting time in history. I don't think there's a more interesting time in history.对，很贵。而且根本就没有足够的人手来照料——年轻人不够多，无法照顾那么多老人，对吧？所以如果有一台机器人能够照料和保护年迈的父母，我觉得那会非常了不起。那将是一件极好的事情。我认为我们会实现这一切。所以总体上，我对未来非常乐观。我认为我们正走向一个令人叹为观止的丰盛未来，这真的很酷。而且我们毫无疑问处于人类历史上最有趣的时代。我想不出还有哪个时代比这更有趣。
Larry FinkCan you and I reverse aging in this new history, or are we going to see it?在这段新历史里，你我还能逆转衰老吗？还是说我们只能眼看着它发生？
Elon MuskYou know, I haven't put much time into the aging stuff. I do think it is a very solvable problem. I think when we figure out what causes aging, I think we'll find it's incredibly obvious. It's not a subtle thing. The reason I say it's not a subtle thing is because all the cells in your body pretty much age at the same rate. I've never seen someone with an old left arm and a young right arm, ever in my life. So why is that? That means that there must be a clock, a synchronizing clock, right, that is synchronizing across 35 trillion cells in your body.你知道，我在衰老这个课题上没有花太多心思。但我确实认为这是一个完全可以解决的问题。我觉得当我们搞清楚衰老的成因时，会发现它其实显而易见，根本不是什么微妙难解的东西。我之所以说它不微妙，是因为你身体里几乎所有细胞都以相同的速度衰老。我这辈子从来没见过一个人左臂是老年的、右臂是年轻的。为什么会这样？这意味着一定存在某种时钟，一种同步时钟，在你体内 35 万亿个细胞之间进行同步。
Elon MuskYou know, there is some benefit to death, by the way. There's a reason why we don't actually have a longer lifespan. Because if people do live forever for a very long time, I think there's some risk of an ossification of society, of things just getting kind of locked in place. You know, it just may become stultifying, just not — lack vibrancy. But that said, do I think we'll figure out ways to extend life and maybe even reverse aging? I think that's highly likely.说起来，死亡其实也有它的好处。我们没能进化出更长的寿命是有原因的。因为如果人真的长生不老或者活很长很长时间，我认为社会存在某种僵化的风险——事情就这样固化下来，可能变得令人窒息，缺乏活力。话虽如此，我觉得我们最终会找到延长寿命甚至逆转衰老的方法——我认为这极有可能发生。
Larry FinkI'm looking forward to that. Yeah. So, in the future that you talk about — AI models, autonomous machines, rockets — depends on massive increases of compute, massive increases in energy, expensive energy, manufacturing scale. What are the bottlenecks to get there? And once again, with all that expenditure, how can we make sure that it's broadened, not narrow?我很期待那一天。好，那么在你所描绘的未来里——AI 模型、自主机器、火箭——都依赖于算力的大规模提升、能源的大规模提升、昂贵的能源、以及制造业的规模化。通往那里的瓶颈是什么？而且，把所有这些投入考虑进去，我们如何确保这种扩张是广泛惠及的，而不是只属于少数人？
Elon MuskI just think the natural thing is it's going to be very broad, because AI companies will seek as many customers as they possibly can, and the cost of AI is already very low and it's plummeting every year. I mean, the cost of AI is almost meaningfully changing on a month-to-month basis.我只是觉得，这种扩张自然而然就会是非常广泛的，因为 AI 公司会尽可能争取最多的客户，而 AI 的成本已经非常低，而且每年都在急剧下降。实际上，AI 的成本几乎是以月为单位在发生有意义的变化。
Larry FinkThere's open models now everywhere. Yeah.现在到处都是开源模型了。是的。
Elon MuskYes, very — there's open models, and the open models only lag, they're maybe a year behind, right, the sort of closed models. So I think the AI companies will seek as many customers as possible, which means they'll provide AI to the world.是的，确实有很多——开源模型存在，而且开源模型的落后程度，也许只落后于闭源模型大概一年，对吧。所以我认为 AI 公司会争取尽可能多的客户，这意味着他们会把 AI 提供给全世界。
Larry FinkBut the cost of getting to there — the compute, the chips, the fab, the powering of that — to me, what are the — you know, those are huge. The limiting factor.但是达到那一步的成本——算力、芯片、晶圆厂、电力供应——在我看来，那些才是……你知道，那些都是巨大的。是限制性因素。
Elon MuskYeah, I think the limiting factor for AI deployment is fundamentally electrical power.是的，我认为 AI 部署的限制性因素从根本上说就是电力。
Larry FinkIt's just energy.归根结底就是能源。
Elon MuskYeah, yeah. I mean, we're seeing the rate of AI chip production increase exponentially, but the rate of electricity being brought online is 3%, 4% a year max. It's clear that very soon, maybe even later this year, we'll be producing more chips than we can turn on, except for China. China's growth in electricity is tremendous. They're building 100 gigawatts of nuclear as we speak.对，对。我是说，我们看到 AI 芯片的生产速度在指数级增长，但电力上网的速度每年最多只有 3%、4%。很显然，非常快——也许就是今年晚些时候——我们生产的芯片数量就会超过我们能够开机使用的数量，中国除外。中国在电力方面的增长势头惊人。他们眼下正在建设 100 gigawatts 的核电。
Elon MuskActually solar is the biggest thing in China. So I believe China's production capacity on solar is 1,500 gigawatts a year, and they're deploying over 1,000 gigawatts a year of solar. Now, for continuous solar load you divide that by roughly, I don't know, four or five, so that's around 250 gigawatts of steady-state power paired with batteries. And that's a very big number — that's half of the average power usage in the US.其实在中国，最大的还是太阳能。我相信中国的太阳能产能是每年 1,500 gigawatts，他们每年部署的太阳能超过 1,000 gigawatts。现在，对于连续性太阳能负荷，你大概除以四或五，所以配上储能大约是 250 gigawatts 的稳定功率。这是个非常大的数字——相当于美国平均用电量的一半。
Larry FinkRight.对。
Elon MuskSo US power usage on average is 500 gigawatts. China just in solar — like just in solar — that can provide steady-state power, and batteries can do half of the US electricity output per year just with solar. Solar is by far the biggest source of energy. And actually when you look beyond — or even on Earth, but certainly beyond Earth — the sun rounds up to 100% of all energy. This is an important thing to consider.美国平均用电量是 500 gigawatts。中国仅仅靠太阳能——就是单靠太阳能——配上储能就能提供稳定功率，每年仅太阳能一项就能提供相当于美国电力总输出一半的电量。太阳能是迄今为止最大的能源来源。实际上，当你放眼更广阔的视野——哪怕就在地球上，更不用说地球之外——太阳约等于 100% 的所有能量。这是一个值得认真思考的重要事实。
Elon MuskSo the sun is 99.8% of the mass of the solar system. Jupiter is about 0.1% and everything else is miscellaneous. Now, even if you were to burn Jupiter in a thermonuclear reactor, the amount of energy produced by the sun would still round up to 100%, because Jupiter is only 0.1%. If you teleported three more Jupiters into our solar system and burnt three more Jupiters and everything else in the solar system, the sun's energy would still round up to 100%. So it's really all about the sun.太阳占太阳系总质量的 99.8%。木星大约是 0.1%，其余全是零碎。即便你把木星扔进一个热核反应堆里燃烧，太阳产生的能量在比较之下仍然会四舍五入到 100%，因为木星只有 0.1%。就算你再传送三个木星过来、把三个额外的木星和太阳系里其他所有东西都烧掉，太阳的能量还是会四舍五入到 100%。所以这一切的关键真的就是太阳。
Elon MuskAnd that's why one of the things we'll be doing with SpaceX within a few years is launching solar-powered AI satellites, right? Because space is really the source of immense power, and then you don't need to take up any room on Earth. There's so much room in space and you can scale to enormous — I mean, you can scale to, I think ultimately, hundreds of terawatts a year.这也是为什么，在接下来几年内，SpaceX 要做的事情之一就是发射以太阳能驱动的 AI 卫星，对吧？因为太空其实是极其充沛的能源来源，而且完全不占用地球上的空间。太空里有无穷无尽的地方，你可以无限扩展——我是说，我认为最终可以做到每年数百 terawatts 的规模。
Larry FinkYou and I have had these conversations before, but why don't you tell the audience, what would it take for the United States, and what type of geography would it take, to have that solar field to electrify the United States? And then let me ask a question: why aren't we doing it?你和我之前聊过这些，但你能不能告诉在场的观众，要用太阳能为整个美国供电，需要多大面积的太阳能阵列、需要什么样的地理条件？然后我想问：我们为什么还没有这么做？
Elon MuskYeah. So, I guess a rough way to think about it is 100 miles by 100 miles — we'll call it 160 kilometers by 160 kilometers — of solar is enough to power the entire United States. So the 100 mile by 100 mile area, I mean, you could take basically a small corner of Utah, Nevada, New Mexico — obviously wouldn't want it all in one place — but it is a very small percentage of the area of the US to generate all of the electricity that the US uses. And the same is true actually for Europe. You could take relatively unpopulated areas of, say, Spain and Sicily and generate all of the electricity power that Europe needs.是的。大概的估算方式是：100 英里乘以 100 英里——也就是大约 160 公里乘以 160 公里——的太阳能板，就足以为整个美国供电。这个 100 英里乘 100 英里的面积，你基本上可以取犹他州、内华达州、新墨西哥州的一个小角落——当然不会真的全集中在一个地方——但这只是美国国土面积非常小的一部分，就能产生美国所使用的全部电力。对欧洲同样适用。你可以利用西班牙和西西里岛等地相对人烟稀少的区域，就能产生欧洲所需的全部电力。
Larry FinkSo why don't you think that there's a movement towards that here in the United States?那你觉得为什么美国没有推动这种转变？
Elon MuskUh, well, there is.呃，其实已经有了。
Larry FinkAs it is in China.就像中国正在做的那样。
Elon MuskWell, unfortunately in the US the tariff barriers for solar panels are extremely high. And that makes the economics of deploying solar so artificially high, because China makes almost all the solar.唉，不幸的是美国对太阳能板的关税壁垒极其之高。这使得太阳能部署的经济性被人为地抬高，因为太阳能板几乎全是中国制造的。
Larry FinkAnd what would it take for Europe or the US to build it commercially, if it's that scale?那如果是这种规模，欧洲或美国要实现商业化建设，需要什么条件？
Elon MuskYeah, I think — well, I can tell you what we're going to do, you know, at SpaceX and Tesla. We're building up large-scale solar, right? So the SpaceX and Tesla teams both separately are working to build to 100 gigawatts a year of solar power in the US, of manufactured solar power. And that'll probably take us about three years or something, but these are pretty big numbers.是的，我觉得——我可以告诉你我们打算怎么做，在 SpaceX 和 Tesla。我们正在大规模建设太阳能，对吧？所以 SpaceX 和 Tesla 两支团队分别在努力，目标是在美国将太阳能制造产能做到每年 100 gigawatts。这大概需要我们三年左右，但这些已经是非常大的数字了。
Elon MuskAnd, you know, I'd encourage others to do the same. We obviously don't control the US tariff policy. But for other countries, I would — you know, China makes solar cells that are incredibly low cost, and I think it would be worth doing large-scale solar.而且，我也鼓励其他人这样做。我们显然无法左右美国的关税政策。但对于其他国家，我会说——中国生产的太阳能电池成本极低，我认为值得大规模推进太阳能部署。
Larry FinkSo, I know you're going to be having a couple big announcements on robotics and what it can do. I mean, when I went to the factory, you showed me those robots.所以，我知道你在机器人方面有几项重大宣布，关于它能做什么。我是说，上次你带我去工厂参观，给我展示了那些机器人。
Elon MuskYeah.对。
Larry FinkHow quickly — you talked about the billions of robots, but how quickly can they be deployed in a manufacturing setting? How quickly can they be utilized and be functional and create that abundance that you talked about?你谈到了数十亿台机器人，但它们在制造业环境中能多快部署？多快能投入使用、实现功能、创造你所说的那种丰盛？
Elon MuskWell, humanoid robotics will advance very quickly. I think we do have some of the Tesla Optimus robots doing simple tasks in the factory. Except probably later this year, by the end of this year, I think they'll be doing more complex tasks, but still deployed in an industrial environment. And probably sometime next year — I'd say that by the end of next year — I think we'd be selling humanoid robots to the public. That's when we are confident that it's very high reliability, very high safety, and the range of functionality is also very high. You can basically ask it to do anything you'd like.人形机器人的进步速度会非常快。我认为我们已经有一些 Tesla Optimus 机器人在工厂里执行简单任务了。大概在今年晚些时候，到今年年底，我认为它们会承担更复杂的任务，但仍然是在工业环境中部署。大概到明年某个时候——我说到明年年底——我认为我们会开始向公众销售人形机器人。到那时我们有把握说，它的可靠性极高、安全性极高，功能范围也非常广泛。基本上你想让它做什么都行。
Larry FinkYou're already seeing that in Tesla cars, the software changes that you're doing. And what is it, every quarter now, a software change that upgrades the ability of a robot within the car?你已经在 Tesla 的汽车上看到这种效应了——你们正在进行的软件更新。现在每个季度都有软件更新来提升车内机器人的能力，是吗？
Elon MuskYes, the Tesla full self-driving software, we update it sometimes once a week. And recently some of the insurance companies have said that it is actually so safe — Tesla full self-driving is so safe — that they're offering customers half-price insurance if they use Tesla full self-driving in their car.是的，Tesla 全自动驾驶软件，我们有时一周更新一次。最近一些保险公司说，它实际上已经足够安全——Tesla 全自动驾驶足够安全——以至于它们正在为使用 Tesla 全自动驾驶的客户提供半价保险。
Larry FinkAnd that could be monitored by the insurance company. Is that part of the agreement then?而且保险公司是可以监控的。这是协议的一部分吗？
Elon MuskYeah. But I think self-driving cars is essentially a solved problem at this point, right? And Tesla's rolled out sort of robotaxi service in a few cities, and will, I think, be very, very widespread by the end of this year within the US. And then we hope to get supervised full self-driving approval in Europe, hopefully next month.是的。但我认为自动驾驶这件事在这个时间点上基本上已经是一个被解决了的问题，对吧？Tesla 已经在几个城市推出了类似 robotaxi 的服务，我认为到今年年底在美国会非常非常普及。然后我们希望在欧洲获得有监督的全自动驾驶批准，希望是下个月。
Larry FinkReally, that quickly?真的，这么快？
Elon MuskYeah. And then maybe a similar timing for China, hopefully.是的。然后中国方面也希望有类似的时间表。
Larry FinkI want to move to space, because historically space is very capital intensive. It's historically been done by governments. Obviously SpaceX changed the whole model. But we've seen it slow to scale, and now I'm starting to see it ramping up in what you're doing and other things. Talk to us about the automation and AI, how it's changing the economics in building and preparing for us in operating in space.我想聊聊太空，因为历史上太空一直是资本密集型的，历史上一直是由政府来做的。SpaceX 显然改变了整个模式。但我们看到它的规模化一直比较慢，而现在我开始看到它在你们所做的事情以及其他方面开始加速了。谈谈自动化和 AI，它如何改变了太空建设和运营的经济性。
Elon MuskUh, sure. Well, the major breakthrough that SpaceX is hoping to achieve this year is full reusability. So no one has ever achieved full reusability of a rocket, which is very important for the cost of access to space. We've achieved partial reusability with Falcon 9 by landing the boost stage. We've now landed the boost stage over 500 times. But we have to throw away the upper stage. The upper stage sort of burns up on re-entry for Falcon 9. And the cost of that is equivalent to a small to medium-sized jet.当然。SpaceX 今年希望实现的重大突破是完全可重复使用。迄今为止没有人实现过火箭的完全可重复使用，这对于降低进入太空的成本至关重要。我们通过 Falcon 9 的助推级回收实现了部分可重复使用。我们现在已经回收了助推级超过 500 次。但上面级我们不得不抛弃。Falcon 9 的上面级在再入大气层时基本上烧毁了。这部分的成本相当于一架中小型喷气机。
Elon MuskSo, but with Starship, which is a giant rocket — it's the largest flying machine ever made —但是 Starship——这是一枚巨型火箭，是有史以来制造的最大的飞行器——
Larry FinkThat's the rocket that you're using for the idea of going to Mars, right?那就是你打算用来飞往火星的火箭，对吧？
Elon MuskYeah. Mars and the moon, as well as for high-volume satellite stuff. So Starship — hopefully this year we should prove full reusability for Starship, which will be a profound invention. Because the cost of access to space will drop by a factor of 100 when you achieve full reusability.对。去火星和月球，同时也用于高频次的卫星任务。所以 Starship——希望今年我们能证明 Starship 的完全可重复使用，那将是一项划时代的发明。因为当你实现完全可重复使用，进入太空的成本将下降 100 倍。
Elon MuskIt's the same sort of economic difference that you would expect between, say, a reusable aircraft and a non-reusable aircraft. Like, if you have to throw your aircraft away after every flight, that would be a very expensive flight. But if you only have to refuel, then it's the cost of the fuel. And so that's really the fundamental breakthrough that gets the cost of access to space, we think, below the cost of freight on aircraft. So, you know, under $100 a pound type of thing, easily. So it makes putting large satellites into space very low, very, very cheap.这就好比可重复使用飞机和一次性飞机之间的经济差异一样。如果你的飞机每飞一次就要报废，那机票会贵得离谱。但如果你只需要加油，那成本就只是燃料钱。所以这才是真正的根本性突破——让进入太空的成本降低到我们认为可以低于航空货运成本的水平。也就是说，轻松做到每磅 100 美元以下的水平。这使得把大型卫星送入太空的成本变得非常非常低廉。
Elon MuskAnd then when you have solar in space, you get five times more effectiveness, maybe even more than that, than solar on the ground, because it's always sunny.而且当你在太空中使用太阳能时，效率是地面太阳能的五倍，甚至不止，因为那里永远是晴天。
Larry FinkIt's cold.而且很冷。
Elon MuskYeah, it's always — well, it's always sunny, so you don't have a day-night cycle or seasonality, right, or weather. And you get about 30% more power in space because you don't have atmospheric attenuation of the power. The net effect is solar is five times more — any given solar panel will do five times more energy in space than on the ground.对，永远是——嗯，永远是晴天，所以没有昼夜循环，没有季节性，也没有天气变化。而且在太空中，因为没有大气层对功率的衰减，你大约能多获得 30% 的功率。综合效果就是太阳能效率提升五倍——同样一块太阳能板在太空中产生的能量是在地面上的五倍。
Larry FinkIs there any capacity in doing that and then taking that power and bringing it back to Earth? Is there any way of doing that, or you're just taking that power and utilizing it for the needs, like building AI data centers in space?有没有可能把那里产生的电力传输回地球？有没有办法做到？还是说你只是把那些电力就地用于需求，比如在太空中建 AI 数据中心？
Elon MuskI think it's a no-brainer for building solar-powered AI data centers in space. Because, as you mentioned, it's also very cold in space. If you're in the shadow, then it's very cold in space, just 3 degrees Kelvin. So you just have solar panels facing the sun, and then a radiator that's pointed away from the sun, so it has no sun incident, and then it's just cooling. It's a very efficient cooling system. So the net effect is that the lowest-cost place to put AI will be space, and that'll be true within two years, maybe three, three at the latest.我认为在太空中建太阳能驱动的 AI 数据中心是不言而喻的选择。就像你提到的，太空里也非常冷。如果你在阴影里，太空中非常冷，只有 3 开尔文。所以你只需要把太阳能板朝向太阳，然后让散热器朝向背光面，完全没有太阳照射，它就自然冷却了。这是一套非常高效的冷却系统。综合效果就是：把 AI 放在太空中将是成本最低的选择，而且这在两年内就会成真，最迟三年。
Larry FinkWow. So looking 10 or 20 years out, how would you describe success with AI or space technology, and where do you see it? Are you more certain what's going to happen in the next three years, or five or 10?哇。那放眼 10 年或 20 年之后，你会如何定义 AI 或太空技术上的成功？你对未来三年更有把握，还是五年或十年？
Elon MuskI don't know what's going to happen in 10 years, but the rate at which AI is progressing, I think we might have AI that is smarter than any human by the end of this year. And I would say no later than next year. And then probably by 2030 or 2031, call it five years from now, AI will be smarter than all of humanity collectively.我不知道 10 年后会发生什么，但以 AI 目前进步的速度，我认为我们可能在今年年底就会拥有比任何人类都聪明的 AI。最晚不超过明年。然后大概到 2030 年或 2031 年，就是从现在算大约五年之后，AI 的智能将会超过全体人类的总和。
Larry FinkWe only have a number of minutes left, but I want to humanize you for a second, so there's no speculation that you're — right. I would frame this question by: you are the most successful entrepreneur, industrialist in the 21st century, maybe beyond. So I want to really get this — you know, what inspired you? Who's inspired you? What was the foundation of your curiosity, and importantly, was there an aha moment, an epiphany at any time in your life and career?我们还有几分钟，但我想让你在这里展现一面更人性的一面，让大家不要再有任何关于你是……的猜测——好，我想这样来提这个问题：你是 21 世纪最成功的企业家和实业家，也许放在更长的历史维度里也是如此。所以我真的想问——是什么启迪了你？谁给了你启迪？你的好奇心根植于何处？而且最重要的是，在你的人生和职业生涯中，有没有过某个顿悟时刻、某个灵光乍现的瞬间？
Elon MuskWell, I mean, as a kid I read a lot of science fiction, sci-fi fantasy books.嗯，我是说，小时候我读了大量科幻奇幻类书籍。
Larry FinkYep, we talked about that.是的，我们聊过这个。
Elon MuskAnd comic books, and I always liked technology. I didn't expect to be where I am today — that seems incredibly implausible. But yeah, I was inspired by reading books about the future, about science fiction. And I guess I want to make science fiction not fiction — forever, at some point turn science fiction to science fact. And, you know, we want to have like Starfleet and Star Trek really for real, where we actually have giant spaceships traveling through space, going to other planets, traveling to other star systems.还有漫画书，我一直喜欢技术。我没想到会走到今天这一步——这感觉不可思议地难以置信。但是，是的，我的灵感来自于阅读关于未来、关于科幻的书籍。我想让科幻不再是虚构——在某个时刻把科幻变成科实。你知道，我们想要真正拥有像 Starfleet 和 Star Trek 那样的东西，真实存在的巨型飞船穿越太空、前往其他星球、飞往其他恒星系。
Larry FinkBe beamed up to go back to New York, you know? I'd like to just be beamed back to New York instead of flying. Yeah. Talk about Star Trek.能被传送回纽约多好，你知道吧？我宁愿被直接传送回纽约，而不是坐飞机。是的。聊聊 Star Trek 吧。
Elon MuskNo, I guess my central — what I would call the philosophy of curiosity. I'd like to understand the meaning of life, you know — is the standard model of physics correct, regarding the beginning of life, beginning of existence and the end of the universe? What questions do we not know to ask that we should ask? And AI will help us with these things. So I'm just trying to understand: how do we get here? What's going on? What's real? Are there aliens? Maybe there are.不，我想我核心的——我把它叫做好奇心的哲学。我想理解生命的意义——物理学的标准模型是否正确？关于生命的起源、存在的起源和宇宙的终结？有哪些我们还不知道该问的问题是我们应该追问的？AI 会帮助我们解答这些问题。所以我只是想搞明白：我们是怎么来的？这一切是怎么回事？什么是真实的？有外星人吗？也许有。
Elon MuskAnd if we've got spaceships that are traveling to other star systems, we may encounter aliens, or we may find many long-dead alien civilizations. But I just want to know what's going on. Kind of curious about the universe. And that's my philosophy.如果我们有飞向其他恒星系的飞船，我们或许会遭遇外星人，或者发现很多早已消亡的外星文明。但我只是想知道到底是怎么回事。说白了，就是对宇宙充满好奇。这就是我的哲学。
Larry FinkDo you see yourself ever going to Mars in your lifetime?你觉得你这辈子能亲自去火星吗？
Elon MuskUh, yeah, I mean, I would say, like — you know, that's a long commitment, I've been asked.呃，是的，我是说——你知道，这是个很大的承诺，我被问过这个问题。
Larry FinkWasn't that three years each way?不是来回各要三年吗？
Elon MuskUh, it's six months.呃，单程六个月。
Larry FinkSix months. That's all it is.六个月，就这些。
Elon MuskYeah, six months. But the planets only align every two years.对，六个月。但是两颗行星只有每两年才对齐一次。
Elon MuskOkay. So, yeah, I've been asked a few times, like, do I want to, you know, die on Mars? And I'm like, yes, but just not on impact.好吧。所以，是的，有人问过我几次，说你想不想死在火星上？我说想，但不是撞上去那种死法。
Larry FinkThat's a good answer. Anyway, we're out of time. Hopefully everybody enjoyed this. I mean, there's so many myths around Elon Musk. I could tell you he's a great friend and I constantly learn so much from him. And I'm totally inspired by what he has done. I've been inspired by who he is, and I'm totally inspired by his vision of the future, and I don't think it's such a bad future, and I agree with his optimism. So Elon, thank you. Any last words?这个回答很好。好了，时间到了。希望大家都享受了这场对话。围绕 Elon Musk 有太多的神话和传说。我可以告诉你，他是我的好朋友，我从他身上不断学到很多东西。他的所作所为让我深受启迪，他这个人让我深受启迪，他对未来的愿景让我深受启迪——而且我不认为那是一个糟糕的未来，我赞同他的乐观。所以 Elon，谢谢你。最后有什么话要说吗？
Elon MuskUm, well, I think generally, my last words would be: I would encourage everyone to be optimistic and excited about the future.嗯，我最后想说的是：我鼓励所有人对未来保持乐观，对未来感到兴奋。
Larry FinkGood.好。
Elon MuskAnd generally, I think for quality of life, it is actually better to err on the side of being an optimist and wrong rather than a pessimist and right.总体上，我认为在生活质量这件事上，宁可做一个乐观者却犯错，也好过做一个悲观者却是对的。
Larry FinkOn that note.就此打住。