InterviewerAll right. Where are you?好，你现在在哪里？
Elon MuskPalo Alto.帕洛阿尔托。
InterviewerYou’re in Palo Alto and not Washington.你在帕洛阿尔托，不在华盛顿。
Elon MuskI’m at Tesla Global Engineering headquarters in Palo Alto.我在帕洛阿尔托的 Tesla 全球工程总部。
InterviewerYeah. So no more Washington DC. You’re back at work, you’re focused.好。所以不再去华盛顿特区了，你回来工作了，专注起来了。
Elon MuskYeah, yeah, I haven’t been to D.C. since May.对对，我从 5 月份起就没去过 D.C. 了。
InterviewerOkay.好的。
Elon MuskThat was a hell of a side quest.那真是一段相当折腾的支线任务。
InterviewerAny lessons from your time in Washington D.C.?在华盛顿特区的那段时间，你有什么收获或感悟吗？
Elon MuskThe government is basically unfixable. I applaud David’s noble efforts. It’s good to have talented people in the administration. But at the end of the day, if you look at our national debt, which is insanely high, the interest payments exceed the Defense Department, I guess. Sorry, War Department budget, and they keep rising.政府基本上是无药可救的。我很欣赏 David 所做的那些崇高努力，行政团队里有有才能的人是好事。但说到底，看看我们的国债——高得离谱，光是利息支出就已经超过了国防部的预算，我是说战争部的预算，而且还在持续攀升。
Elon MuskSo if AI and robots don’t solve our national debt, we’re toast, which is a great segue.所以如果 AI 和机器人解决不了我们的国债问题，我们就完了——这倒是个绝妙的引子。
InterviewerOptimus is, I think, going to be the greatest product in the history of humanity. What’s the progress like? And how much of your cycles are going specifically to Optimus? What’s the timeline? I think you’re on version three, maybe four. Tell us everything.Optimus，我觉得它将成为人类历史上最伟大的产品。现在进展如何？你有多少精力专门放在 Optimus 上？时间线是什么？我记得你们好像已经到第三版甚至第四版了。给我们全说说。
Elon MuskWell, yeah, everything would take a long time. We’ve got time. We’re finalizing the design of Optimus version 3. And that really is going to be a very remarkable robot.嗯，"全说说"要花很长时间的。我们有时间。我们正在敲定 Optimus 第 3 版的设计，那真的会是一台非常出色的机器人。
Elon MuskIt will have essentially the manual dexterity of a human, submitting a very complex hand, an AI mind that can navigate and comprehend reality, and it will be made in very high volume. Those are the three things that are missing. Like if you see any other robotics company, they’re missing those three things. Those are the three really hard things.它基本上会具备人类的手部灵巧度——一双极其复杂的手，再配上一个能够在现实世界中导航和理解环境的 AI 大脑，而且会大批量生产。这三件事是目前所有其他机器人公司都缺少的，也是真正困难的三件事。
Elon MuskAnd I spend, actually, at this point, it might be more mental cycles than anything else. Any other single thing on Optimus that’s solving for real world AI. All of the electromechanical issues of Optimus, the supply chain and production challenges of it. Because there is no supply chain that exists for humanoid robots. So it has to be. We have to recreate it from scratch and which requires doing a lot of vertical integration.我现在投入其中的脑力，可能比任何其他单一事项都多——Optimus 要解决的是现实世界的 AI 问题，还有所有机电方面的问题，以及供应链和量产挑战。因为人形机器人根本就不存在现成的供应链，必须从零开始重建，这需要大量垂直整合。
Elon MuskNone of the actuators in Optimus are available from an existing supply chain, so. But I think it is accurate to say that if successful, Optimus will be the biggest product ever.Optimus 的所有执行器都没有现成供应链可以购买，根本买不到。但我认为，如果成功，Optimus 将会是有史以来最大的产品，这个说法是准确的。
InterviewerAnd the cost of it, at scale, 20, 30, $40,000 a robot, what do you think the first wave of them will cost and when will we be able to buy one to work on the ranch?那在规模化之后，每台机器人两万、三万、四万美元——你觉得第一批上市时会卖多少钱？我们什么时候能买一台来管牧场？
Elon MuskI think that the marginal cost of production once you hit a million units per year is probably around the $20,000 range. It sort of depends on how much you spend on the AI chip in the robot. And you need to achieve a lot of efficiencies in the actuators.我认为，一旦达到每年百万台的产量，边际生产成本大概在 $20,000 左右。具体取决于你在机器人里用多贵的 AI 芯片，同时执行器也需要实现大量的成本优化。
Elon MuskThere are 26 actuators per arm, like 26 electric motors, gearboxes, and power electronics. So the AI chip will be pretty expensive. That might be like five or six thousand dollars of the bill of materials, maybe more. But I think at volume, at a million units a year, the production cost is probably on the order of $20,000, maybe 25,000, something like that. And price will be as a function of demand.每条手臂有 26 个执行器，也就是 26 个电机、齿轮箱和功率电子器件。所以 AI 芯片会相当贵，光芯片这一项在 BOM（物料清单）里可能就要五六千美元，甚至更多。但我认为在量产阶段——每年百万台——生产成本大概在 $20,000，也许 $25,000 左右。至于售价，则是需求的函数。
InterviewerElon, can you maybe explain to everybody why the hand is so important to get right and why, you know, the actuator design is so unique and you know, why it’s so difficult, why nobody makes it, and why you have to start there almost to build the rest of the robot properly?Elon，能不能跟大家解释一下，为什么手这个部分这么重要、必须做对？执行器的设计为什么那么独特、那么难？为什么没有人做出来？为什么要从这里入手，才能把机器人的其余部分做好？
Elon MuskWell, it turns out human hands are incredibly, they’ve evolved to be this incredibly sophisticated machine. Your hand is actually a remarkable thing. Look closely at your hands and think of all the things you can do with your hands.是这样的，人类的手经过进化，已经成为一台极其精妙的机器。你的手其实是一件了不起的东西。仔细看看你的手，想想你能用双手做什么。
InterviewerI can think of many things. Yeah, I was just thinking about something.我能想到很多。是的，我刚才就在想这个。
Elon MuskYour hands are very versatile instrument.你的手是非常多用途的工具。
InterviewerYeah, you could give a high five.对啊，可以击掌。
Elon MuskVery versatile. You know, you can swing a baseball bat, you can thread needles, you put thread in a needle. You can play the piano with violin. You know, you could disassemble or assemble a car. The hands are incredibly versatile instruments and most of the muscles of the hand are actually in the forearm.多用途，非常多用途。你能挥动棒球棒，能穿针引线，能弹钢琴、拉小提琴，能拆装一辆汽车。双手是难以置信的多用途工具，而且手部大部分的肌肉其实都在前臂里。
Elon MuskSo your hand is kind of like a puppet. It’s mostly a puppet. The muscles are coming from the forearm and they’re pulling the tendons, which are also. Human tendon design or human tendon evolution is incredibly good. So you’ve got this web of tendons. You’ve got, I think the human hand is something like, depending on how you count it, 27 or 28 degrees of freedom in the hand. It’s amazing.所以你的手其实有点像木偶——基本上就是个木偶。肌肉从前臂延伸出来，拉动肌腱，而这些肌腱……人类肌腱的设计，或者说进化，实在是妙到极点。你有这么一张腱的网络——我想人的手大概有 27 或 28 个自由度，具体取决于怎么数，非常惊人。
Elon MuskSo in order to create a robot that can be a generalized humanoid, you must solve the hands problem.所以，要造出一个能泛化的人形机器人，手部问题是必须解决的。
InterviewerIs it like when you were first building Tesla where the supply chain doesn’t exist and now you have to go out and find folks to work with and, you know, build all this vertical integration, get support? Is it literally like it’s just nowhere to be found and you’re going to have to build all of this stuff up?这是不是就像当年建 Tesla 时一样——供应链根本不存在，你得出去找合作伙伴、做垂直整合、寻求支持？真的是完全找不到，你们必须从头搭建所有这些东西？
Elon MuskYes. We could not actually buy the actuators for any amount of money. They simply didn’t exist. Even though there are 10, 20,000 electric motors out there of various sizes and shapes, we’ve had to design every electric motor, gearbox and the controlling electronics from scratch, basically from physics first principles.是的。那些执行器我们花多少钱都买不到，它们根本不存在。尽管市面上有一万、两万种各种尺寸规格的电机，但我们还是不得不从头设计每一个电机、齿轮箱和控制电路，基本上从物理第一性原理出发。
InterviewerThe good news is you’ve got a lot of experience with factories over the last couple of decades. So how challenging is this versus cybertruck, Model Y, Model X gigafactory, you know. Yeah, the Faberge egg, known as the Model X. Yeah.好消息是你在工厂方面已经有了几十年的经验。那跟 Cybertruck、Model Y、Model X、超级工厂相比，这次挑战有多大？对，就是那颗被称为 Model X 的法贝热彩蛋。
Elon MuskRight. Yes. Harder than any of those things.对。是的，比那些都难。
InterviewerYeah. Much harder. Significantly. Yeah.是吗，难多了？明显难多了？对。
Elon MuskStarship. Yes, well, harder than starship.比 Starship 还难。嗯，对，比 Starship 难。
InterviewerNo, not harder.不对吧，没有更难吧。
Elon MuskStarship’s harder.Starship 更难。
InterviewerSo somewhere between a Model X and a starship.所以是介于 Model X 和 Starship 之间？
Elon MuskYeah.对。
InterviewerWhat’s harder, the hardware or the software?硬件难还是软件难？
Elon MuskRight now we’re struggling with the final design of the hardware. Like I said, it’s really primarily the hand, not to just dismiss the rest of the robot. The rest is also important. But the hands are — the hands inclusive of the forearm are a majority of the engineering difficulty of the entire robot…目前我们在硬件的最终设计上还在攻坚。就像我说的，主要是手的问题——当然机器人其余部分也重要，我不是要轻描淡写，但包含前臂在内的手，占整台机器人工程难度的大头……
InterviewerWhy the human form factor, Elon? You could make something that’s maybe better than a human or maybe simpler than a human to do specific tasks and maybe better than a human to do more things than a human can do. How did you decide to make it just like a human?Elon，为什么要选择人形的形态？你完全可以造出某方面超过人类的东西，或者针对特定任务做得比人更简单更好。你是怎么决定做得和人一模一样的？
Elon MuskWell, if you wanted to do all the things that a human can do, it turns out you need a humanoid robot. So if you wanted to do a subset, that’s much easier. But it turns out humans evolved to the shape and capabilities that we have for good reasons. There is like this value to having four fingers and a thumb and even the pinky actually is quite useful. Toes are much more a question mark, but the fingers.这样的——如果你想做到人类能做的所有事情，最终你会发现你需要的就是人形机器人。如果只做一个子集，那容易得多。但事实是，人类进化到现在的形态和能力，是有原因的。四指加一个拇指是有价值的，就连小拇指其实也相当有用。脚趾就更存疑一些，但手指嘛。
InterviewerWell also humans have designed the world as well, so we designed it for us. You can make a humanoid robot. It’ll be immediately backwards compatible with what we’ve built the world for.而且人类也把世界设计成适合自己的了，所以世界就是为我们而建的。你造一个人形机器人，它立刻就能向下兼容我们为自己建造的这个世界。
Elon MuskPrecisely.正是如此。
InterviewerThere’s another part of the robot. So there’s the LLMs, there’s the actuation, the hands, but also there’s the silicon that runs it. And there was dojo. I think you posted on X, AI5 and AI6 and it just seemed like you were incredibly excited about the direction in which the silicon layer was also going. Can you tell us about that and what that is?机器人还有另一个层面。有 LLM，有执行器，有手，还有运行它的芯片。之前有 Dojo，然后我看你在 X 上发了 AI5 和 AI6 的消息，你看起来对芯片这一层的发展方向兴奋极了。能跟我们说说那是什么吗？
Elon MuskYeah, so at Tesla we basically had two different chip programs, one Dojo and one dojo on the training side. And then what we call, you know, AI4, it’s just our inference chip that the AI4 is currently shipping in all vehicles.是的，在 Tesla 我们基本上有两个芯片项目，一个是 Dojo，Dojo 是在训练侧。然后还有我们称之为 AI4 的——这其实就是我们的推理芯片，AI4 目前已经在所有车辆上量产交付了。
Elon MuskAnd we’re finalizing the design of AI5 which will be an immense jump from AI4 by some metrics. The improvement in AI5 will be 40 times better than AI4. So 40 times. And this is because we work so closely at a very fine grade level on the AI software and the AI hardware. So we know exactly where the limiting factors are. And so effectively the AI hardware and software teams are co designing the chip.我们正在敲定 AI5 的设计，在某些指标上，AI5 将是 AI4 的一次巨大飞跃——性能提升达 40 倍。能做到这一点，是因为我们在非常细粒度的层面上将 AI 软件和 AI 硬件紧密联合开发，我们清楚地知道瓶颈在哪里。所以实际上，AI 硬件团队和软件团队是在协同设计这颗芯片。
InterviewerSo a 40x improvement in the silicon, I think then as everybody here in the audience experiences it, is that just an almost like an order of magnitude increase in the quality of FSD and the safety that you experience as a Tesla driver and then the quality of the robot?芯片提升 40 倍，我想对于台下所有人来说，这是不是意味着 FSD 的质量和安全性、以及机器人的能力，会有将近一个数量级的飞跃——作为 Tesla 车主能切身感受到的那种？
Elon MuskYeah, to be precise, the 40x is on. If you said like. Compared to the worst limitation on AI4, which is running the Softmax operation, we currently have to run Softmax in around 40 steps in emulation mode, whereas that’ll just be done in a few steps natively in AI5.准确说，那个 40 倍是针对特定场景的——跟 AI4 最严重的瓶颈相比，也就是 Softmax 运算。我们目前在 AI4 上大约需要用仿真模式跑 40 步来完成 Softmax，而 AI5 里这个操作原生几步就能完成。
Elon MuskAI5 will also be easily handled mixed precision models. So you don’t have. It’ll dynamically handle mixed precision. There’s a bunch of sort of technical stuff that AI5 will do a lot better in terms of nominal sort of raw compute. It’s 8 times more compute, about 9 times more memory, roughly 5 times more memory bandwidth.AI5 还能轻松处理混合精度模型——它会动态处理混合精度。还有一堆技术层面的东西，AI5 都会做得好很多。就原始算力来说，大概是 8 倍算力、约 9 倍内存、大概 5 倍内存带宽。
Elon MuskBut because we’re addressing some core limitations in AI4, you multiply that by that 8x computer improvement by another 5x improvement because of optimization at a very fine grain silicon level of things that are currently suboptimal in AI4, that’s where you get the 40x improvement.但因为我们针对 AI4 的一些核心瓶颈做了专项优化，把那个 8 倍算力提升再乘以另外 5 倍——这 5 倍来自对 AI4 目前次优环节的极细粒度硅级优化——这就是 40 倍提升的由来。
Elon MuskNow that said, I am confident that the current chips, AI4 chips that are in the cars will achieve self driving safety that is at least 2 to 3 times that of human and maybe even 10x. And the software that will be released for that is coming out over the next few months.话虽如此，我有信心目前已经装车的 AI4 芯片，将能实现至少是人类安全驾驶水平 2 到 3 倍，甚至可能 10 倍的自动驾驶安全性。对应的软件会在未来几个月内陆续发布。
Elon MuskSo version 14 will be the biggest upgrade in Tesla software since version 12. We are increasing the parameter count by an order of magnitude. There’s a lot of reinforcement learning that’s been used. Like you can think of AI sort of as a way of compressing reality. And some of those compression steps, we were too lossy and we addressed the lossiness in the compression steps.第 14 版将是自第 12 版以来 Tesla 软件最大的一次升级。我们把参数量提升了一个数量级，大量运用了强化学习。你可以把 AI 理解成一种对现实的压缩方式，而我们之前在某些压缩步骤上损失太多了，现在我们修正了那些步骤的有损问题。
Elon MuskSo these are all software updates that’ll go out. So just over the air updates, your car is going to feel like it is sentient by the end of the year.这些都是会推送的软件更新。所以就通过 OTA 升级，你的车到年底会让你感觉它是有意识的。
InterviewerIt feels that way already, to be honest. I saw in the trades that you spent about $17 billion on some spectrum and that. So some couch change to enable your satellites and the Starlink network to connect directly with phones. What will that look like in a year or two? Are we going to drop our Verizon account and just expand our Starlink account? We’re kind of hoping because Verizon kind of sucks.说实话，现在就已经有那种感觉了。我看到报道说你花了大约 $17 billion 购买了一些频谱——也算是沙发缝里的零钱——来让你的卫星和 Starlink 网络直接连接手机。一两年内会是什么样子？我们是不是要取消 Verizon 账户，然后升级 Starlink 账户？我们挺希望的，因为 Verizon 真的挺烂的。
Elon MuskHow many of you want a Starlink phone?你们有多少人想要 Starlink 手机？
InterviewerWho wants a Starlink phone? Is it technically possible? I know you can’t see it, but it’s everywhere.谁想要 Starlink 手机？这技术上可行吗？我知道你看不到，但大家到处都在举手。
Elon MuskYeah. All right, cool. So this is kind of a long term thing it will allow SpaceX to deliver high bandwidth connectivity directly from the satellites to the phones. But there are hardware changes that need to happen in the phones so that since these frequencies are not supported in current phones, the chipset has to be modified to add these frequencies and that probably is a two year time frame.好，太棒了。这是个长期愿景——它将使 SpaceX 能够直接从卫星向手机提供高带宽连接。但手机硬件需要做出改变，因为这些频段现有手机不支持，芯片组必须修改以添加这些频段，这大概需要两年时间。
Elon MuskSo the phones that are able to use the spectrum that was acquired probably start shipping in around two years. And then we also need to deploy the satellites that are going to communicate on those frequencies. So in parallel with building the satellites and working with the handset makers to add these frequencies to the phones, and then the satellites and the phones will then handshake very well to achieve high bandwidth connectivity.所以能够使用所购频谱的手机，大概两年后开始出货。同时我们还需要部署能在这些频段通信的卫星。在建造卫星的同时，我们要和手机厂商合作，在手机里加入这些频段，然后卫星和手机就能完美握手，实现高带宽连接。
Elon MuskBut the net effect is that you should be able to watch videos anywhere on your phone.最终效果是，你应该能在任何地方用手机看视频。
InterviewerWow.哇。
Elon MuskAnd it’s going to be crazy. Do these frequencies, would they work indoors, inside buildings like the phone currently does?这会很疯狂的。这些频段能在室内用吗？就像现在手机在建筑里面用一样？
InterviewerOk. And so will you be able to have.好，那能不能……
Elon MuskBasically if you’re in a building with a thick metal roof, then no. But the same types of normal homes, yes.基本上，如果你在一栋有厚金属屋顶的建筑里，那不行。但普通住宅那种，可以。
InterviewerElon, is your vision for this, that instead of having an AT&T account and then roaming when you’re in the UK or you’re in India, it’s just we could have one direct deal with Starlink. It works all over the world eventually, not today, but at some point. Is that the end goal, that basically we don’t need a regional carrier, we have a global carrier and that would be you?Elon，你的愿景是这样的吗——以后不用办 AT&T 套餐再出国时漫游，不管是去英国还是去印度，直接跟 Starlink 签一个全球通的套餐，最终在全世界都能用，不是今天，但终有一天——基本上不再需要区域运营商，有一个全球运营商，就是你？
Elon MuskThat would be one of the options. To be clear, we’re not going to put the other carriers out of business. They’re still going to be around because they own a lot of spectrum. But yes, you should be able to have a Starlink like you have an AT&T or T-Mobile, Verizon or whatever. You could have an account with Starlink that works with your Starlink antenna at home, free Wi-Fi as well as on your phone. And yeah, it would be a comprehensive solution for high bandwidth at home and for high bandwidth direct to cell.那是选项之一。说清楚，我们不会把其他运营商挤垮，他们手里还有大量频谱，还会继续存在。但是，你将可以像办 AT&T、T-Mobile、Verizon 账户一样办一个 Starlink 账户——能配合家里的 Starlink 天线使用，享受免费 Wi-Fi，手机上也能用。这会是一个覆盖家庭高带宽和手机直连高带宽的综合解决方案。
InterviewerCould you buy some carriers to have more spectrum? Maybe you could buy Verizon.你能不能收购一些运营商来获得更多频谱？也许可以买下 Verizon？
Elon MuskNot out of the question. I suppose that may happen.不排除。我觉得这也许会发生。
InterviewerLet’s talk about Starship. You just had a really, what appeared to be a phenomenal launch. How close is it to being predictable and ready to go in a commercial setting?来聊聊 Starship。你们刚刚进行了一次看起来非常精彩的发射。距离它在商业环境里可预期、可靠地运行，还有多远？
Elon MuskI think we will recover the ship next year. We’ve got one more launch of the Starlink version 2 stack. There’s only one booster and ship left that’s in the version two design. And then thereafter it’s version three, which is a gigantic upgrade because that’s got Raptor 3. And pretty much everything changes on the rocket with version 3.我认为我们明年就能回收飞船。还有一次 Starlink 第 2 版堆栈的发射——目前只剩一个第 2 版设计的助推器和飞船了。之后就进入第 3 版，那是一次巨大的升级，因为装上了 Raptor 3，火箭上几乎每一样东西在第 3 版都会变。
Elon MuskSo version 3 might have some initial growing pains because it’s such a radical redesign, but it’s capable of over 100 tons to orbit, fully reusable. And I think unless we have some very major setbacks, SpaceX will demonstrate full reusability next year, catching both the booster and the ship and being able to deliver over 100 tons to a useful orbit.第 3 版最初可能会有些磨合期，因为这是一次彻底的重新设计，但它能以完全可复用的方式向轨道运送超过 100 吨的货物。我认为，除非出现重大挫折，SpaceX 明年将演示完全复用——同时回收助推器和飞船，并能将超过 100 吨送入有效轨道。
InterviewerWhat does the best rocket in the world do now in terms of tonnage to space?目前世界上最好的火箭能把多少吨送入太空？
Elon MuskWell, in terms of commercial rockets, the Falcon Heavy, which we’ll do with side booster reuse, we’ll do about 40 tons.就商业火箭而言，Falcon Heavy 在侧助推器复用的情况下大约能运 40 吨。
InterviewerThis is five times bigger.那这是五倍大？
Elon MuskYeah, well, two and a half times bigger. But Starship will be full reuse, full reusability.嗯，其实是两倍半。但 Starship 是完全复用的。
InterviewerGot it.明白了。
Elon MuskOkay, so everything comes back.好，所以所有部件都能回来。
InterviewerElon, after the explosion that happened with the failed launch, there was a lot of…Elon，那次失败发射后发生的爆炸，当时有很多……
Elon MuskWhich one?哪次？
InterviewerSorry?什么？
Elon MuskWhich failed launch?哪次失败发射？
InterviewerOh, the more recent one. The more recent with the Starship.哦，比较近的那次，Starship 的那次。
Elon MuskThe big boom here.大爆炸那次？
InterviewerYeah, the big boom on the base and there was a lot of proclamations that there’s going to be environmental and FAA and all these other sorts. The recovery back to the launch pad again was incredibly fast. How did you get back so fast? Not just technically and work wise, but just regulatory clearance wise, because they said there were going to be all these questions and reviews and so on. How did you guys manage that?对，发射台大爆炸那次，当时有很多预言说什么环保审查、FAA 审查各种各样的问题。但复飞的速度快得令人难以置信。你们是怎么恢复这么快的？不只是技术和工程层面，连监管许可也恢复得那么快——当时他们说会有各种质询和审查之类的，你们是怎么搞定的？
Elon MuskWell, there were a lot of questions and reviews. We got through them all. And credit to the SpaceX team. They worked incredibly hard and they got the next ship and booster tested and on the pad and flown. And huge credit to the SpaceX team. Very proud of them for doing such a job, a great job recovering.确实有大量质询和审查，但我们全都过了。功劳要归给 SpaceX 团队，他们拼命工作，把下一艘飞船和助推器测试完毕、安装到发射台、飞了出去。要大力赞扬 SpaceX 团队，我为他们的恢复工作感到无比自豪。
Elon MuskI mean, creating a fully reusable orbital rocket is one of the hardest engineering problems ever. Certainly a candidate for most difficult engineering project ever. It’s on the podium at least. So that’s been the goal of SpaceX from the beginning, from 2002. And here we are 23 years later. So it’s a long journey and with a super talented team – by far, I think the most talented group of rocket engineers that has ever been assembled. And finally next year I think we’ll be able to achieve full reusability.打造一枚完全可复用的轨道火箭，是有史以来最难的工程难题之一，绝对是有史以来最难工程项目的有力竞争者，至少能站上领奖台。这从 2002 年起就是 SpaceX 的目标，如今 23 年过去了，是一段漫长的旅程，身边有一支极其才华横溢的团队——我认为是有史以来集结的最顶尖的火箭工程师群体。终于，我认为明年我们将能实现完全复用。
InterviewerElon, what are the big technical blockers that you’re focused on there between now and that full reusability? Are there some showstoppers where you’re just literally obsessing over trying to figure out still, or is it more about getting through a laundry list of your learnings and just integrating it into the next launch?Elon，在完全复用这条路上，从现在到实现之间，你最关注哪些关键技术瓶颈？有没有什么你还在死磕的拦路虎，还是说更多是把已有的经验教训整合进下次发射？
Elon MuskWell, for full reusability of the ship, there’s still a lot of work that remains on the heat shield. So no one’s ever made a fully reusable orbital heat shield – the shuttle heat shield had to go through nine months of repair after every flight. Right. So no one has ever made a fully reusable orbital heat shield.要实现飞船的完全复用，热防护系统还有大量工作要做。没有人做出过完全可复用的轨道级热防护系统——航天飞机的热防护每次飞行之后都要经历九个月的维修。从来没有人做出过完全可复用的轨道级热防护系统。
InterviewerAnd is that a material science problem or is that an engineering problem or both?那这是材料科学问题，还是工程问题，还是两者都有？
Elon MuskYeah, I mean, it’s a material science engineering problem. So it’s… But we really are looking at the fundamental physics here again, physics first principles and trying to figure out how do we make something that is, you know, it can withstand the heat, is very light, doesn’t transmit the heat to the primary structure and all tiles stay on, they don’t crack.是材料科学和工程的结合问题。但我们还是回到基础物理，用第一性原理思考——如何做出一种能承受高温、非常轻、不把热量传导到主结构、而且所有隔热瓦都不脱落、不开裂的东西。
InterviewerYeah.对。
Elon MuskAnd then as you ascend, if you hit some rain, the tiles don’t dissolve in rain. There’s a lot of different issues and they really need to know that these tiles are working. You can’t go through this laborious inspection. So it really needs to be these tens of thousands of tiles all work and don’t need to be refurbished or checked one by one. That was the case with the shuttle.然后在上升过程中如果遇到雨，隔热瓦也不会被溶解。各种各样的问题，而且你必须真正知道这些瓦片是好用的，不能走繁琐的逐一检查流程。需要数以万计的瓦片全部正常工作，不需要逐块翻新或检查——航天飞机当年就是这样的。
InterviewerCan we maybe switch now? I mean, you talked about Tesla. Then you go to SpaceX. Now I’d like to ask you some questions about Grok and xAI. You want to just give us an update? I think you talked about where the next gen model is and you said something incredible. I still don’t think people really understand it, which is, you know, there’s going to be a next training run where you expect, you know, not to start from the common web and common crawl where you expected an enormous amount of synthetic data. Just tell us about how the evolution of Grok is going and this innovation and why it’s so important.能换个话题吗？你谈到了 Tesla，谈到了 SpaceX，现在我想问问 Grok 和 xAI。能给我们更新一下进展吗？我记得你提到了下一代模型，说了一件让我觉得大家还没真正理解的事——下次训练不会从普通网络数据和 Common Crawl 开始，你说会有大量合成数据。给我们讲讲 Grok 的演进方向，以及为什么这个创新如此重要。
Elon MuskYeah, so we’re running a lot of, using a lot of inference compute and reasoning to look at all of the source data, which is really the corpus of human knowledge, and then thinking about each piece of information and then adding what’s missing and correcting mistakes and removing falsehoods from the training data.是的，我们在用大量推理算力来处理所有源数据——也就是人类知识的语料库——对每一条信息进行思考，然后补充缺失的内容、纠正错误、从训练数据里去除不实信息。
Elon MuskSo it’s like if you take the Wikipedia as an example, but this really applies to books, PDFs, websites, every form of information. Grok is using heavy amounts of inference compute to look at, as an example a Wikipedia page and say what is true, partially true or false or missing in this page. Now rewrite the page to correct the… Remove the falsehoods, correct the half truths and add the missing context.举个例子，比如拿 Wikipedia 来说，但这同样适用于书籍、PDF、网站、各种形式的信息。Grok 用大量推理算力来看一个 Wikipedia 页面，然后判断：哪些是真的、哪些部分为真或为假、哪些是缺失的。然后重写这个页面，去掉错误信息，纠正半真半假的内容，补充缺失的背景。
InterviewerElon, by the way, could you just publish that? Could we create like a Grokipedia? I mean that would be great.Elon，顺便问一句，你能不能把这个发布出去？我们能不能做一个 Grokipedia 之类的东西？那会很棒的。
InterviewerYeah, especially for our bio pages, which are a disaster.是啊，尤其是我们各自的简介页面，简直一团糟。
Elon MuskWikipedia is so biased and it’s a constant war. You know, if something gets corrected five minutes later, there’ll be an army of people trying to… I mean it’s become hyper partisan and there’s political activists all over it. So if you do fix, for example, Wikipedia as a source of truth, it’d be great to publish that just so the world has it.Wikipedia 偏见重重，而且是一场持续不断的战争。你知道，某个东西被纠正了，五分钟后就会有一群人来……我是说，它已经变得极度党派化，到处都是政治活动人士。所以如果能把 Wikipedia 作为真相来源来修正，然后发布出去，让全世界都能用到，那会很棒的。
InterviewerAll right, I’ll talk about that. Talk to the team about that. Grokpedia or whatever. Here’s the Grokpedia version. Be interesting and then just have it out there for… In terms of training Grok 5, you’re scaling up your supercluster in Colossus in Memphis. Could you give us an update on that? And then also as part of that, where are we in the scaling laws?好，我跟团队聊聊这个，搞个 Grokpedia 或者什么名字——这是 Grokpedia 版本，把它放出去，挺有意思的……说到训练 Grok 5，你在 Memphis 的 Colossus 超级集群上扩容。能不能给我们更新一下进展？另外在扩展定律方面，我们现在处于什么位置？
InterviewerIf you scale a bigger cluster, do you get a more powerful AI model? Is there a point of diminishing returns or how much more compute? If you throw twice as much compute at it, do you get a 10% better model? Do you get 100% better model? Is it log linear? How much more juice is there left in scaling hardware, do you think?如果把集群做得更大，能得到更强大的 AI 模型吗？存不存在收益递减的点？算力加倍能得到 10% 更好的模型，还是 100% 更好的模型？是对数线性关系吗？你觉得扩展硬件还有多少空间？
Elon MuskI think there’s a natural logarithmic function associated with the amount of compute. So then for argument’s sake, 10x more compute will double the intelligence. Maybe that’s… That might be a rough rule of thumb, but you know, that still means that, you know, you go from 100 IQ to 200 IQ still pretty big deal.我觉得算力和智能之间存在一个自然的对数函数关系。粗略来说，10 倍算力大约能让智能翻倍——可能这是个大致的经验法则。但你知道，即便如此，从 100 IQ 跳到 200 IQ 仍然是个大事。
Elon MuskAnd I think we’ll see intelligence continue to scale all the way up to where most of the power of the sun is harnessed for compute and then ultimately most of the power of the galaxy, sort of Kardashev 2 to Kardashev 3 scale compute.我认为我们将看到智能持续扩展，一直扩展到利用太阳的大部分能量来做算力，最终利用银河系的大部分能量——也就是 Kardashev 2 到 Kardashev 3 级别的算力规模。
Elon MuskSo I guess once you think about artificial intelligence not as sort of this destination that you reach, but really as part of the overall escalation of intelligence that we are aware of, you know, human intelligence has also scaled as you have… As the population has increased and we’ve been able to store more and more information. Human intelligence has scaled.所以，如果你不把人工智能看成某个要到达的终点站，而是把它看作我们所知的整体智能演进的一部分——人类的智能也是随着人口增长和信息存储能力的增加而扩展的。
Elon MuskNow human… Because of population declines and low growth rate, human intelligence is somewhat plateauing and will actually decline. And my guess is that I think that we might have AI smarter than any single human at anything as soon as next year. And then probably within 5… say 20, 30, probably AI is smarter than the sum of all humans.现在，由于人口下降和低增长率，人类智能正在某种程度上趋于平稳，并将实际下降。我的猜测是，最快明年可能就会出现在任何单一领域都比任何单个人类更聪明的 AI，然后大概再过 20 到 30 年，AI 的智能可能会超过全体人类的总和。
InterviewerDo you think humans are on the decline because the AI is evolving? Do you think there’s this evolution of the ecosystem on Earth that’s underway that we don’t really understand the structure of what’s going on?你认为人类的衰退是因为 AI 在进化吗？你认为地球上正在发生一种我们并不真正理解其结构的生态系统演化吗？
Elon MuskYeah, maybe we implicitly know that it’s coming. I mean, I hope the birth rates turn around. I’m a big proponent of increased birth rate, obviously.也许我们在潜意识里知道这一切正在到来。我是说，我希望出生率能扭转过来，我显然是一个支持提高出生率的大力倡导者。
InterviewerWell, you’re doing anything about it or no?你在为此做点什么吗？
Elon MuskYeah, I’m trying to set a good example.是的，我在努力以身作则。
InterviewerYou know, we had a big conversation at this conference we didn’t expect. Which is suicidal empathy. The west, this declining birth rate. I noticed you’ve been pretty active about it. And open borders. And open borders, like “let the invaders in.” Could all three of those be the same thing?你知道，我们在这次大会上有一场没有预料到的大讨论——关于"自杀式共情"，西方的出生率下降。我注意到你对这件事很活跃。还有开放边境，就是那种"让入侵者进来"的态度。这三件事会不会是同一件事的不同表现？
Elon MuskIt seems like there’s a number of symptoms of the west being suicidal. The most obvious one being the birth rate is not at replacement level. So obviously, if that continues indefinitely, then the west will literally not reproduce enough to replace itself.西方似乎有很多症状表明它在走自杀的路。最明显的一个就是出生率低于替代水平。显然，如果这种情况无限期持续下去，西方字面意义上就会无法繁衍到足以取代自身的程度。
Elon MuskBut there’s other things, too. There’s the fact that the borders were totally opened to the point where Western culture, the social fabrics, started to come apart. And you see this especially in Europe, where the indigenous cultures of the UK or France or Germany are starting to potentially be taken over by cultures of people who are brought in and aren’t assimilating.但还有其他问题。边境被完全开放，开放到西方文化的社会结构开始瓦解。这在欧洲尤为明显，英国、法国、德国的本土文化正面临被引进的、不融入当地社会的外来文化潜在取代的风险。
Elon MuskYou have crime where we have this case on social media right now, this young woman, Irina, who’s just killed in a senseless way on a subway, which is horrific enough in and of itself. But then in addition to that, the elite media just, for whatever reason, just refused to cover it, like it didn’t exist. So you have this issue of crime that’s not being addressed or even acknowledged.现在社交媒体上有这样一个案例——年轻女孩 Irina 在地铁里以一种毫无意义的方式被杀害，这本身就已经令人发指。但除此之外，精英媒体出于不知何种原因，就是拒绝报道，好像什么都没发生一样。所以你看到了这样一种情况：犯罪问题既得不到解决，甚至连承认都没有。
InterviewerAnd no acknowledgement of this. It’s almost like we’re trying to deny the reality of the spiral.而且完全不予承认。感觉我们像是在刻意否认这种螺旋式下滑的现实。
Elon MuskYeah, so you have all these data points that seem to suggest that the west is suicidal or doesn’t seem to want to defend itself or propagate itself. Look, I think everyone in this room thinks that life is awesome, right?是的，所有这些数据点似乎都在表明西方正在走向自我毁灭，或者说不想为自己辩护，不想延续自己。你看，我觉得在座各位都认为生命是美好的，对吧？
InterviewerPretty great. It’s worth living.相当美好，值得活着。
Elon MuskYeah. And when Alex Karp was here earlier today, defending the west, that got some of the loudest applause at the conference.是的。今天早些时候 Alex Karp 在这里为西方辩护，那是本次大会掌声最热烈的时刻之一。
InterviewerSo I guess we probably don’t really understand what’s going on. What’s your take, Elon? Because you know, what’s your take on the suicide of the West?那我想我们可能真的不太理解这一切在怎么发生。Elon，你怎么看？你对西方的自我毁灭是怎么看的？
Elon MuskYeah, I’m very worried about it. You know, I think there’s… She said that the actions of the west are indistinguishable from suicide. But it’s… Look, at least in America there’s generally a sense of optimism. But when’s the last time you talked to someone from Europe who lives in Europe who’s optimistic?我对此非常担忧。我觉得……有人说西方的行为与自杀无异。但你看，至少在美国，总体上还有一种乐观情绪。但你上一次遇到一个住在欧洲、对未来感到乐观的欧洲人，是什么时候的事了？
InterviewerNot for a while. Decades.已经很久了，几十年了。
Elon MuskIt’s rare. So I think unless people have a sense of optimism and purpose about the future, suicide might be just what happens. Having a child is an act of optimism about the future. So if you’re not optimistic, I think we need to maybe give people a sense of optimism and excitement about the future and a belief that the future will be better than the past and they’ll be more interested in having kids.很罕见。所以我认为，如果人们对未来没有乐观感和使命感，自我毁灭可能就是最终结果。生孩子是一种对未来的乐观行为。所以如果你不乐观——我认为我们也许需要给人们一种对未来的乐观和兴奋感，让人们相信未来会比过去更好，那他们就会更有意愿生孩子。
InterviewerDid religion play a role in the past, Elon, to kind of placate and make folks feel that way when they want?宗教在过去是否曾经扮演过这个角色，Elon，在人们有这种需要时让他们感到安慰和满足？
Elon MuskYeah, I think so. Nature abhors vacuum. And if you take away religion, then I think you actually get something in its place which is actually worse than what was there before. I mean it’s destructive. Basically, you get the woke mind virus filling the hole that religion used to have, taking the place of religion. You get these dystopian de facto religions that are very self destructive.我觉得是的。大自然厌恶真空。你把宗教拿走之后，我认为你得到的替代品实际上比原来的还要糟糕。它是有破坏性的。基本上你会看到觉醒文化病毒填补宗教曾经占据的那个位置，取代宗教。你会看到这些乌托邦式的事实上的宗教，非常具有自我毁灭性。
Elon MuskSo I think perhaps some sort of revival of religion or at least what we need is some coherent philosophy that people can get excited about. I mean, for me it’s a philosophy of curiosity. I’m curious about the nature of the universe and I want to go out there and I want humanity to be out there exploring the stars, maybe meeting alien civilizations. Maybe in some cases we see the ruins of a long dead alien civilization, but they were never very strong for 10 million years.所以我认为也许需要某种宗教的复兴，或者至少，我们需要一种人们能为之振奋的连贯哲学。对我来说，这是一种好奇心哲学。我对宇宙的本质感到好奇，我想走出去，我希望人类走出去去探索星空，也许去接触外星文明，也许有时候我们会看到一个已经灭亡了一万年的外星文明的遗迹。
Elon MuskThe kind of stuff that you see in Star Trek in a non dystopian sci fi book or movie or show. And so I have a philosophy of curiosity. I just want to know what’s going on. And in order to know what’s going on, we must have and increase in the scope and scale of consciousness, we must expand as consciousness. We must grow humanity and we must extend humanity in order to comprehend, to understand the universe or even what questions we should ask about the answer that is the universe.就是你在《星际迷航》里看到的那种，没有反乌托邦色彩的科幻小说、电影或剧集里描绘的那种。我有一种好奇心哲学，我只是想知道宇宙在发生什么。而要知道发生什么，我们必须拥有并扩大意识的范围和规模，我们必须作为意识去扩张，我们必须壮大人类，我们必须延伸人类，才能理解宇宙，才能理解我们该向这个作为答案的宇宙提出什么问题。
Elon MuskDouglas Adams book “The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy” is actually a deep book on philosophy disguised as humor. And the point he was trying to make in that book was that the questions are really the hard part. The answer is universe. The answer is everything you see around you. But what are the questions that we don’t know to ask.Douglas Adams 的《银河系漫游指南》其实是一本伪装成幽默的深刻哲学书。他在书中试图表达的观点是：问题才是真正难的部分。答案就是宇宙，答案就是你周围看到的一切。但是，那些我们还不知道该问的问题是什么？
InterviewerNow?现在呢？
Elon MuskSome of the questions I guess I do know, I’d like to know, is the standard model of physics correct about the origins of the universe? Are we actually 13.8 billion years old? How does the universe end? Does it end in a heat death or in some other way? We’re in a black hole. We might be.我知道一些我想知道的问题：物理学的标准模型关于宇宙起源的论述是正确的吗？我们真的是 138 亿年历史吗？宇宙会如何终结？是热寂还是其他方式？我们可能身处一个黑洞里。也许确实如此。
InterviewerElon, can you talk about the whole…Elon，能不能聊聊那整个……
Elon MuskSort of simulation question? Are we a simulation? Maybe.模拟问题？我们是不是活在一个模拟里？也许是。
InterviewerWhere do you think we find the answer first? In AI or in the stars? Because you’re pursuing both, obviously.你觉得答案会先从 AI 那里找到，还是先在星空里找到？因为你两条路都在走，很明显。
Elon MuskYeah. I don’t know if I hope more people can get behind a philosophy of curiosity, because I think it’s very exciting and inherently optimistic because there’s this amazing sense of wonder about the nature of the universe. And when you uncover some secrets to the universe, that’s amazing. And you’re a whole world of understanding has opened up.是的。我不知道，我希望更多人能认同好奇心哲学，因为我认为它非常令人振奋，而且本质上是乐观的——对宇宙本质有一种神奇的敬畏感。当你揭开宇宙的某些秘密时，那种感觉太美妙了，整个理解的新世界就此打开。
Elon MuskI mean, we used to not even know where all the continents were. It used to be the map would be, there’d be dragons. What we know is that when they sailed in that direction, they didn’t come back. I mean, the moon base, that’s all they knew.我是说，我们曾经连所有大陆在哪里都不知道。过去的地图上，那些地方会画着龙。人们知道的就是，往那个方向航行的船不会回来。我是说，月球基地，那就是他们全部知道的了。
InterviewerI kind of feel the moon base or just going to the moon for real this time would be a big step in the right direction. You still have the moon planned? What’s the status of that? Is that still on the agenda?我觉得建立月球基地，或者说这次真正去月球，会是向正确方向迈出的一大步。月球计划还在吗？现状如何？还在议程上吗？
Elon MuskI think we want to try to reach new heights as a civilization.我认为我们想要努力达到文明的新高度。
InterviewerYeah.是的。
Elon MuskSo I think it’s fine to go to the moon, but we should go to the moon in order to establish a lunar base. A lunar research base.所以我认为去月球是好的，但我们去月球应该是为了建立一个月球基地，一个月球科研基地。
InterviewerYeah.对。
Elon MuskI mean, there are parts of the moon that are perhaps older than parts of Earth. And we might understand more about the nature of the universe. If we had a science space on the moon, that would be very cool. And then we also want to go beyond the moon to Mars and build a self sustaining city on Mars.我是说，月球的某些部分可能比地球上的某些部分更古老，我们可能会因此更深入地理解宇宙的本质。在月球上建一个科学站，那会非常酷。然后我们还想超越月球，去火星，在火星上建一座能自我维系的城市。
Elon MuskI do think that there is a fork in the road of Human destiny where if we can establish a self sustaining city on Mars. With the key test being if the resupply shifts from Earth stop coming for any reason, does Mars continue to prosper? Or does it die out at the point at which Mars is able to prosper and grow on its own?我确实认为，在人类命运的路口，如果我们能在火星上建立一座能自我维系的城市——关键测试是：如果来自地球的补给船因为任何原因停止了，火星能否继续繁荣？还是会消亡？一旦火星能够自力更生、自主发展，
Elon MuskThe probable lifespan of consciousness is dramatically greater because we are no longer dependent on everything going right on Earth. There’s always some possibility of self annihilation on Earth with World War three or super virus or a meteor that destroyed the dinosaurs. We know from the fossil record that there have been many mass extinction events.意识的可能寿命将大幅延长，因为我们不再依赖地球上的一切都必须正常运转。地球上始终存在某种自我毁灭的可能——第三次世界大战、超级病毒、或者像灭绝恐龙的小行星撞击。从化石记录我们知道，历史上曾发生过多次大灭绝事件。
Elon MuskSo the question that I’m always wondering about is will the civilizational arc continue to ascend such that we can make Mars self sustaining before the civilizational arc descends? Because the window of opportunity to make life multi planetary exists now for the first time in the four and a half billion year history of Earth.所以我一直在思考的问题是：文明的弧线能否持续向上攀升，在它向下跌落之前让火星实现自我维系？因为让生命成为多星球物种的机遇窗口，在地球四十五亿年历史上是第一次出现，就是现在。
InterviewerYeah, Elon, let’s assume that we get there and you’re there. You know, you’d be the elder statesman, you’d have the moral authority of Mars. How do you run Mars?Elon，假设我们做到了，你也在那里——你将是德高望重的元老级人物，是火星上的道德权威。火星该怎么治理？
Elon MuskBut this point that I think I want to just emphasize again that it’s more important than the form of governance on Mars or who’s there. In the early days what really matters is that Mars is self sustaining. That we are truly a multi planet species and such that we’ve achieved planetary redundancy.但有一点我想再次强调，它比火星的治理形式或者谁在那里更重要——在早期阶段，真正重要的是火星能自我维系，让我们真正成为多星球物种，从而实现星球冗余。
Elon MuskSo that if something, and obviously we should do everything possible to make sure life on Earth is great. But there’s always some risk of an annihilation event on Earth. Self annihilation or some natural disaster. And so the probable lifespan of consciousness increases dramatically as soon as we are multi planet species. With the key test being can Mars survive if the resupply ships stop coming.当然，我们应该尽一切努力让地球上的生活也很美好。但地球上始终存在某种毁灭事件的风险，无论是自我毁灭还是自然灾害。所以，一旦我们成为多星球物种，意识的可能寿命就会大幅延长——关键测试就是：补给船停来的话，火星能否继续生存。
Elon MuskSo getting the first missions to Mars are not that important. What matters is can you get sufficient tonnage to Mars such that Mars can prosper on its own. And that means it has to have all of the ingredients of civilization. It’s not just that you need to build for example a chip factory on Mars or ship fab on Mars. But you need the ability.所以最初几次去火星的任务并不是最重要的。重要的是能否向火星输送足够的货物吨位，让火星能够自力更生。这意味着火星需要具备文明的所有要素——不只是在火星上建一个芯片工厂或晶圆厂，还需要具备……
InterviewerDo you have a sense of the time scale? Let’s assume starship is at a state starting in 2026 and there’s going to be a bunch of testing. Obviously there’s going to be a bunch of early testing. We only have certain launch windows. So there’s a bunch of time constraints. Is this a 50 year thing in your mind? Is it 150 year thing? Is it something that is for our generation or is it our children’s generation? Where do you see that point? If it’s optimally possible, things go and break our way.你对时间尺度有感觉吗？假设 Starship 从 2026 年开始具备条件，会有大量测试，发射窗口也有限制，所以时间上有很多约束。这是 50 年的事吗？还是 150 年？是我们这一代能看到的，还是子孙后代的事？如果一切顺利、事情都朝好的方向发展，你预计是哪个节点？
Elon MuskI think it can be done in 30 years, provided there’s an exponential increase in the tonnage to Mars with each successive Mars transfer windows, which is every two years. So every two years the planets align and you can transfer to Mars.我认为 30 年内可以做到，前提是每个火星转移窗口——每两年行星对齐一次——向火星输送的吨位都呈指数级增长。每两年行星对齐，就有机会转移到火星。
Elon MuskSo I think in roughly 15, but maybe as few as 10. But 10 to 15 Mars transfer windows. If you’re seeing exponential increases in the tonnage to Mars with each Mars transfer window, then it should be possible to make Mars self sustaining in about, roughly 25 years. Amazing. That’s incredible.所以我认为大约 15 个、但也许少至 10 个，总之 10 到 15 个火星转移窗口。如果你看到每个窗口向火星运送的吨位都在指数增长，那么大约 25 年内就应该可能让火星实现自我维系。太惊人了，难以置信。
InterviewerAll right, ladies and gentlemen, Elon Musk. We’ll see you when we’re back in town. We miss you. See you in person next time. Thank you, brother.好，女士们先生们，Elon Musk。等你回城了我们再见。我们想念你，下次当面见。谢谢你，兄弟。
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