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2024 Annual Shareholder Meeting | Tesla

2024-06-13 · Tesla · 2:26:15 · auto captions · ▶ Watch on YouTube

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3:08

Brandon ErhartWelcome to Texas, the home of Tesla. My name is Brandon Erhart, I’m the General Counsel and corporate secretary and this meeting is going to be in two parts. First, we’re going to cover the 12 items that stockholders have been asked to vote on, as well as any other matters that have been properly presented. Second, our founder and CEO, Elon Musk will provide a presentation. During the course of the following sessions, we may discuss our business outlook and make other forward-looking statements. Such statements are predictions based on current expectations, actual events or results could materially differ due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those disclosed in our most recent 10-K or 10-Q as filed with the SEC. Such forward-looking statements represent our views as of today should not be relied on hereafter, and we disclaim any obligation to update them after today. At this time, I’d like to thank members of the Tesla team and the board that are here in attendance. A representative from PriceWaterhouseCoopers, Tesla’s independent auditor, is also present. But before we begin, I’d like to introduce you to our board chair, Robyn Denholm, who would like to say a few words.欢迎来到德克萨斯州,Tesla 的大本营。我叫 Brandon Erhart,担任公司法律总顾问兼公司秘书。本次会议将分为两个部分:第一,我们将就股东投票的 12 项议案及其他已正式提交的事项进行表决;第二,我们的创始人兼 CEO Elon Musk 将发表演讲。在接下来的会议环节中,我们可能会讨论公司业务展望并作出前瞻性陈述。这些陈述均基于当前预期的预测,实际事件或结果可能因多种风险和不确定因素而与之存在重大差异,相关风险已在我们向 SEC 提交的最新 10-K 或 10-Q 中披露。上述前瞻性陈述仅代表我们截至今日的观点,此后不应作为依据,我们也不承担在今日之后更新这些陈述的义务。在此,我谨向出席本次会议的 Tesla 团队成员及董事会致谢。Tesla 独立审计机构 PriceWaterhouseCoopers 的代表也出席了本次会议。在会议正式开始之前,请允许我向大家介绍我们的董事会主席 Robyn Denholm,她将向大家致辞。

4:36

Robyn DenholmThanks, Brandon, and hello, everyone. As chair of Tesla’s board, I’m honored to welcome you all to our home, Texas. For our annual 2024 annual shareholder meeting. And when I say I’m honored to welcome you, our shareholders, I truly am. No other company in the world has such a diverse, engaged, and supportive set of shareholders as Tesla. No other shareholder base understands its company like you do, nor is as committed to Tesla’s mission to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy like you are. It is a shareholder base whose interests the board are proud to represent. It is also a shareholder base that understands that in order to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy, and a sustainable energy economy, Tesla needs to develop the most revolutionary technologies not only in autos, but in energy and artificial intelligence as well. Our achievements this past year, our steps towards fulfilling our mission. Some highlights include the Model Y becoming the best selling vehicle in the world in 2023, beginning deliveries of the much anticipated Cybertruck proving that the muscle and utility of a pickup truck can be electric and cool. And our energy storage deployments reaching an all-time high in 2023, with the deployment trend continuing in 2024. By using our products, Tesla customers avoided releasing over 20 million metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions in 2023. That is the equivalent of 51 billion miles driven by ICE vehicles, an increase of about 18 billion avoided ICE miles since 2022. But to continue the exponential growth in greenhouse gas emission avoidance, we not only have to get our products into as many customers hands as possible, but we also need to increase the utilization of our products. And to help further with that goal, we released FSD Supervised, demonstrating that our approach to autonomy is scalable. And that accomplishments in artificial intelligence, along with leveraging our existing production lines to get our next generation products to market faster, are essential to achieving our mission. We have made and plan to make further investments in hardware and software ecosystem to further advance our path to autonomy and set a course to realization of Robotaxis. But sustainability is not just about avoiding emissions. It needs to take into account the whole lifecycle from the manufacturing of the products to the product’s end-of-life. That is why we sourced responsibly. We design our manufacturing processes to use less water per vehicle than the industry average, and for the third year in a row, we power our Supercharger network with 100 percent renewable energy. And we are also working to build a battery material recycling ecosystem, both internally and with others, to ensure that we are moving towards a truly circular economy for energy storage. In 2023 alone, we supported the recovery of enough battery materials to build 43,000 new Rear-Wheel-Drive Model Ys. That result is the epitome of a sustainable economy. While sustainability is our mission, we also have the goal of safety. Our cars are engineered to be some of the safest in the world and we take real-world data from our fleet, and our ability to push over-the-air updates to optimize safety for all our vehicle models. Our attention to autonomy also plays a role in our goal of safety. Based on 2023 data, Tesla vehicles with driver-assist technologies engaged had only one vehicle accident per 5.64 million miles driven, compared to the U.S. vehicle fleet of one accident per 670,000 miles driven. So not only are you protecting the environment by driving a Tesla, you’re also protecting yourself and those who ride with you. With another year of progress in furthering our mission under our belt, I want to take this moment to thank our phenomenal Tesla employees whose creativity, hard work, and dedication are the source of our success. And as most are also shareholders alongside each and every one of you, I hope each employee takes pride in in the role that you have played in Tesla’s accomplishments. I am proud of you and the board and I appreciate you tremendously. Finally, I want to remind our shareholders that your board is listening and we are here to represent your interests. You are the owners of the company and your voices, your perspectives, and your input are critical to us as a board and to the direction of the company. My fellow directors and I serve as your fiduciaries and oversee Tesla’s mission, purpose, and strategy with those responsibilities in mind. We continuously set the highest standards for ethical behavior, corporate citizenship, and corporate governance. You don’t see the day-to-day work of the directors, but I can assure you: this is a highly engaged board. And I would like to thank my fellow directors for their dedication, whether it be inside the boardroom, meeting with our shareholders, or working closely with our team members throughout the company. Tesla is unique in how active and large our retail shareholder base is, and we hope you here in this room and our shareholders joining us virtually today continue to take advantage of our shareholder platform to enhance your engagement with Tesla. I want to give a special shout out to our small but mighty IR team and legal team, and everyone involved in running this year’s proxy campaign—both inside and outside of Tesla. There is still much to do, but it has galvanized us around the strong belief that the right things are always worth fighting for. Thank you. And now I’ll hand it back. Thank you. Now I’m gonna hand it back to Brandon, thank you.谢谢你,Brandon,大家好。作为 Tesla 董事会主席,我非常荣幸在我们的大本营德克萨斯州欢迎各位出席 2024 年股东年会。当我说"荣幸地欢迎各位股东"时,我是发自内心的。世界上没有任何一家公司拥有像 Tesla 这样多元、活跃且忠诚的股东群体。没有任何一个股东群体像你们一样深刻理解自己投资的公司,也没有哪个股东群体像你们一样对 Tesla 加速全球向可持续能源转型这一使命如此坚定。董事会为能代表这样一个股东群体的利益而深感自豪。这也是一个深刻理解 Tesla 肩负重任的股东群体——为了加速全球向可持续能源经济转型,Tesla 必须在汽车领域之外,在能源和人工智能领域同样研发出最具革命性的技术。过去这一年,我们的成就是向这一使命迈进的重要步伐。几个亮点包括:Model Y 于 2023 年跻身全球最畅销车型;备受期待的 Cybertruck 正式开始交付,证明了皮卡的力量与实用性同样可以兼具电动化与酷炫外观;以及我们的储能部署量在 2023 年创下历史新高,这一增长势头在 2024 年仍在延续。借助 Tesla 产品,Tesla 客户在 2023 年共减少了超过 2000 万公吨的温室气体排放,相当于传统内燃机车辆行驶 510 亿英里所产生的排放量,比 2022 年多减少了约 180 亿英里的内燃机行驶当量。而要在减少温室气体排放方面实现指数级增长,我们不仅要让尽可能多的客户用上我们的产品,还必须提高产品的使用率。为此,我们发布了 FSD Supervised(监督模式全自动驾驶),充分证明我们的自动驾驶路线具有可扩展性。人工智能领域的技术成就,以及充分利用现有产线加快下一代产品上市,对于实现我们的使命至关重要。我们已经并将持续加大对硬件和软件生态系统的投入,以进一步推进自动驾驶进程,并为 Robotaxi 的落地铺平道路。但可持续发展不仅仅意味着减少排放,还必须考虑产品从制造到报废的全生命周期。这正是我们坚持负责任采购的原因——我们将工厂的单车用水量控制在行业平均水平以下,连续第三年以 100% 可再生能源为 Supercharger 网络供电,并在内部和外部同步推进电池材料回收生态系统建设,携手各方迈向真正意义上的储能循环经济。仅 2023 年,我们回收的电池材料就足以制造 43,000 辆新款后驱 Model Y,这正是可持续经济的最佳诠释。可持续是我们的使命,安全同样是我们的目标。我们的汽车被设计为全球最安全的车型之一,我们从车队获取真实世界数据,并通过 OTA 空中升级优化所有车型的安全性。我们对自动驾驶的持续投入同样服务于安全目标。根据 2023 年数据,搭载辅助驾驶功能且处于激活状态的 Tesla 车辆,每 564 万英里才发生一起事故,而美国整体车辆数据是每 67 万英里发生一起事故。所以驾驶 Tesla,不仅是在守护环境,也是在守护自己和同乘者的安全。在又一年的使命推进之后,我想借此机会感谢我们卓越的 Tesla 员工,是你们的创造力、勤奋与执着成就了我们的一切。你们中的大多数人同时也是股东,与在座每一位并肩而行,我希望每一位员工都能为自己在 Tesla 成就中扮演的角色感到骄傲。我为你们感到自豪,董事会也为你们感到自豪,我们对你们的付出深怀感激。最后,我想提醒各位股东:董事会在倾听,我们的职责就是代表你们的利益。你们是公司的主人,你们的声音、视角和意见对我们董事会以及公司的方向至关重要。我与各位董事同仁以信托受托人的身份为你们服务,以这份责任之心监督 Tesla 的使命、愿景与战略。我们持续将道德行为、企业公民责任与公司治理标准保持在最高水平。你们或许看不到董事们日常工作的全貌,但我可以向你们保证:这是一个高度投入的董事会。我要感谢我的同仁们,无论是在董事会议室、与股东会面,还是在全公司与团队成员紧密协作,他们都全力以赴。Tesla 拥有极为活跃且规模庞大的散户股东群体,这是 Tesla 的独特之处,我们希望在座各位以及今天线上参与的股东们继续充分利用我们的股东沟通平台,与 Tesla 保持深度互动。我要特别感谢我们规模虽小但极具战斗力的 IR 团队和法务团队,以及所有参与本年度委托投票工作的同仁——无论是 Tesla 内部还是外部的伙伴。还有很多事情有待推进,但这一切让我们更加坚信:正确的事情永远值得去争取。谢谢大家。现在我把话筒交还给 Brandon,谢谢。

13:04

Brandon ErhartThank you, Robin. So I will now call the meeting to order. The time is now 3:40 p.m. Central, and I declare that the polls are now open. We have already received over the past few weeks voting proxies from our stockholders. However, if you wish to vote your shares at this time, you may do so through the virtual meeting portal. Or if you want to vote in person, ballots and ballot boxes are available at the front. Tesla’s board of directors has appointed Tony Cardidio, a representative of the Cardidio Group, to serve as the inspector of election. In addition, Broadridge Financial Services has certified that starting on April 29, 2024, the proxy materials, or notice of internet availability for proxy materials, were mailed or provided to all Tesla stockholders of record on April 15, 2024. We have a majority of outstanding shares represented at the meeting, so I declare that there is a quorum present and then we may proceed with the meeting. The items on the agenda are as follows, there are five Tesla proposals: The election of two Class 2 directors, James Murdoch and Kimball Musk, to serve for a term of three years or until their respective successors are duly elected and qualified; to approve executive compensation on a non-advisory basis; to approve the re-domestication of Tesla from Delaware to Texas via conversion; to ratify the 100-percent performance-based stock option award to Elon Musk that was previously approved by stockholders in 2018; to ratify the appointment of PriceWaterhouseCoopers LLP as Tesla’s independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year 2024. Tesla’s board has recommended that our stockholders vote for each of the two director nominees and for each of the four other Tesla proposals. We have also received seven stockholder proposals that are described in the proxy statement. I would like to remind our stockholders that Tesla’s board has prepared a statement in opposition to these proposals which also appear in our proxy statement. So let’s turn to those seven stockholder proposals. The first one is an advisory vote regarding reduction of director terms to one year. Our board has recommended that our stockholders vote against this as explained in the proxy. This stockholder proposal is proposed by Mr. James McRitchie, who has prepared a pre-recorded message.谢谢,Robin。现在我宣布会议正式召开。现在是中部时间下午 3:40,投票通道正式开启。过去几周内,我们已经收到了各位股东寄送的委托书。若您希望现在投票,可通过虚拟会议平台提交;如需现场投票,请在前台取用选票和投票箱。Tesla 董事会已指定 Cardidio Group 的代表 Tony Cardidio 担任本次选举监察人。此外,Broadridge Financial Services 已证明,自 2024 年 4 月 29 日起,委托投票材料或互联网委托材料查阅通知已邮寄或发送给 2024 年 4 月 15 日登记在册的全体 Tesla 股东。会议多数流通股已出席,因此我宣布会议达到法定人数,会议可以正常进行。本次议程如下,共有五项 Tesla 提案:一、选举两名第二类董事 James Murdoch 和 Kimball Musk,任期三年,直至其各自的继任者依法当选并就职;二、以非约束性顾问方式批准高管薪酬方案;三、批准 Tesla 从特拉华州迁册至德克萨斯州;四、批准追认 Elon Musk 2018 年获股东批准的 100% 业绩挂钩股票期权奖励方案;五、批准追认任命 PriceWaterhouseCoopers LLP 为 Tesla 2024 财年独立注册会计师事务所。Tesla 董事会建议股东投票支持两位董事候选人及其余四项 Tesla 提案。我们还收到了七项股东提案,详情已载于委托说明书。请各位股东注意,Tesla 董事会已就上述提案准备了反对意见,同样载于委托说明书。下面,我们逐一讨论这七项股东提案。第一项为顾问投票,内容为将董事任期缩短至一年。董事会建议投票反对,理由已在委托书中阐明。该提案由 James McRitchie 先生提出,他录制了一段预录视频。

16:01

James McRitchieThank you. We presented a similar proposal in 2021. 55 percent supported it, even though the board put up a competing proposal, accountability every other year instead of every year, neither received the required 67 percent of shares owned. 90 percent of the S&P 500 have a declassified board. Most institutional shareholders will again support our proposal. Join them. The recent Delaware court case identified three legal deficiencies at Tesla: directors are not independent; the facts of the pay plan presented to investors were misleading; and the board failed to negotiate properly. A major part of a cure is declassifying the board so shareholders can hold directors accountable or submit their own nominations. Matt Moscardi of Free Float calls proposal number six the most important vote today, since it may enable investors to change the board, bringing new skills and professionalism. John Chevedden and simple majority vote is the other crucial vote. Another important endorser is Nell Minow, co-founder of companies including proxy advisor ISS. The Musk premium is already eroding. Tesla is Musk’s liquid piggy bank, since it’s publicly traded. His other companies are not. Either he sticks around long enough to use our shareholder capital to fund his other ventures, or he shifts his attention sooner if we reject his pay package and turn off the money tap. Bite the bullet. Prepare for a future that doesn’t depend on a superhero dictatorship. We need to transition from a board dominated by friends and family to one of expert independent directors in engineering, software, and other relevant fields. Musk is a genius. I’m saddened to see him focus his attention elsewhere, but it is happening. Don’t let him siphon off more from Tesla. We need to transition to a more democratic Tesla that can attract customers, employees, and shareholders seeking a better world ahead. Again vote for number six and seven. Declassify the board for accountability, lower the voting threshold for more flexibility. Vote now before the polls are closed. Your vote can make a significant difference in our future. Thank you.谢谢。2021 年我们提出过类似提案,当时有 55% 的股东支持,尽管董事会同时提出了竞争性方案——要求每两年一次而非每年一次的问责,但两项提案均未能获得所需的 67% 有效票数支持。S&P 500 中 90% 的公司已实现非交错制董事会。大多数机构股东将再次支持我们的提案,请加入他们的行列。近期特拉华州法院判决指出 Tesla 存在三项法律缺陷:董事独立性不足;向投资者披露薪酬计划相关事实存在误导;以及董事会谈判程序存在瑕疵。解决这些问题的关键之一,正是取消交错制董事会,让股东能够追责董事或提名候选人。Free Float 的 Matt Moscardi 将第六项提案称为今日最重要的投票,因为它可能赋予投资者改变董事会构成、引入新技能与专业素养的能力。John Chevedden 的简单多数投票提案则是另一项关键投票。另一位重要支持者是 ISS 等机构代理顾问公司的联合创始人 Nell Minow。Musk 溢价已经开始消退。Tesla 是 Musk 的流动小金库,因为它是上市公司,而他的其他公司不是。要么他留下来足够长的时间,继续动用我们的股东资本为其他项目输血;要么如果我们否决他的薪酬方案、切断这条资金管道,他会更快地将注意力转向别处。壮士断腕,为不依赖"超级英雄独裁"的未来未雨绸缪。我们需要从一个由亲友把持的董事会,过渡到一个由工程、软件及相关领域专业独立董事组成的班子。Musk 是个天才,看到他把注意力转移到别处,我感到痛心,但这确实正在发生。不要让他继续从 Tesla 抽血。我们需要迈向一个更民主的 Tesla,一个能够吸引追求美好未来的客户、员工和股东的 Tesla。再次呼吁:投票支持第六、第七项提案——取消交错制以实现问责,降低投票门槛以增强灵活性。趁投票尚未截止,立即行动。你的一票,可以深刻影响我们的未来。谢谢。

18:38

Brandon ErhartThank you, Mr. McRitchie. As a reminder, the board’s response was contained in our proxy statement. The second stockholder proposal is an advisory vote regarding simple majority of provisions in our governing documents our board has recommended against and are set forth for the reasons in the proxy. This stockholder proposals proposed by Mr. John Chevedden, who is on the line to present this present this proposal. Mr. Chevedden, I would like to invite you to speak. You will have three minutes.谢谢,McRitchie 先生。提醒各位,董事会的回应已载于委托说明书。第二项股东提案为顾问投票,内容为将我们治理文件中超过简单多数的规定改为简单多数。董事会建议反对,理由已在委托书中阐明。该提案由 John Chevedden 先生提出,他目前在线等候发言。Chevedden 先生,现在邀请您发言,您有三分钟时间。

19:28

John CheveddenHello, this is John Chevedden. Proposal seven simple majority vote. Shareholders requested the board of directors take the necessary steps so that each voting requirement in the charter and bylaws that calls for a greater than simple majority vote, be replaced by requirements for a majority of the votes cast for and against that proposals for a simple majority. This includes making the necessary changes in plain English. This proposal seven is exact same concept at the Tesla Board of Directors supported at the 2022 Tesla Annual Meeting. The 2022 Tesla Board of Directors proposals then won 98 percent support from the Tesla shareholders who voted. And the Board of Directors version of this proposal would have been adopted earlier, if the board of directors had only made a slight effort to encourage more Tesla shareholders to vote for their proposal. This simple majority vote standard proposal will help improve Tesla shareholder rights. Tesla now scores a dismal 10 in shareholder rights, with 10 being the worst possible score. The Tesla Board of Directors supported this proposal concept in 2022, and should do so today. Shareholder rights and a simple majority vote standard are all the more important when Tesla has a CEO, Elon Musk, who is threatening to give less attention to Tesla and threatening to withhold advanced technology from Tesla unless he gets a $56 billion paycheck. Never before have shareholders been under such duress, when asked to prove an outrageous $56 billion CEO paycheck. Plus, there’s no promise with the $56 billion paycheck that Mr. Musk will devote any minimum percentage of his time to Tesla, or pursue any minimum amount of advanced technology at Tesla. Ross Gerber of the investment firm Gerber Kawasaki said, “I believe the Tesla board of directors is the most conflicted, least independent, and most incapable board of directors in the history of business.” Please vote yes, simple majority vote, proposal seven.你好,我是 John Chevedden。第七号提案:简单多数投票。股东请求董事会采取必要步骤,将公司章程和内部规程中所有要求超过简单多数通过的投票条款,全部改为以赞成票与反对票中的简单多数票数通过;同时须以浅显易懂的语言进行相应修订。第七号提案的理念与 Tesla 董事会在 2022 年股东年会上支持的提案完全一致。2022 年 Tesla 董事会版本的提案获得了投票股东 98% 的支持率。而如果董事会当时稍微努力一下,鼓励更多 Tesla 股东参与投票,该提案早就得以通过了。此次简单多数投票标准提案将有助于提升 Tesla 股东权利。Tesla 目前的股东权利评分仅有 10 分,而 10 分是最低分。Tesla 董事会在 2022 年曾支持这一提案理念,今天理应同样如此。股东权利与简单多数投票标准在当下尤为重要——Tesla 的 CEO Elon Musk 正以"减少对 Tesla 投入"和"扣留先进技术"相威胁,除非他拿到 560 亿美元的薪酬包。历史上从未有股东在被迫批准如此离谱的 560 亿美元 CEO 薪酬包时,处于这样的压力之下。而且那 560 亿美元的薪酬包中,根本没有承诺 Musk 会将任何最低比例的时间投入 Tesla,也没有保证他会在 Tesla 推进任何最低程度的先进技术。来自投资机构 Gerber Kawasaki 的 Ross Gerber 曾说:"我认为 Tesla 董事会是商业史上最存在利益冲突、最缺乏独立性、最缺乏能力的董事会。"请投票支持第七号提案,简单多数投票。

21:23

Brandon ErhartThank you, Mr. Chevedden. As a reminder, the board’s response is set forth in the proxy. Our third stockholder proposal is an advisory vote regarding annual reporting on anti-harassment and discrimination efforts. Our board has recommended against for the reasons set forth in the proxy. This stockholder proposals proposed by the New York State Common Retirement Fund as the lead filer, which is requested that Dr. Kristen Hall, as represented for Nia Impact Capital as co-filer for this proposal, present this proposal. Dr. Hall, I would like to invite you to speak. You have three minutes.谢谢,Chevedden 先生。提醒各位,董事会的回应已载于委托书。第三项股东提案为顾问投票,内容为每年披露反骚扰与反歧视工作情况。董事会建议反对,理由已在委托书中阐明。该提案由纽约州公共退休基金作为主要提案方提出,并邀请 Nia Impact Capital 代表、该提案联合提案方的 Kristen Hall 博士出席发言。Hall 博士,现邀请您发言,您有三分钟时间。

22:26

Kristen HallThank you. Hello, I’m Dr. Kristen Hall of Nia Impact Capital. I’m here on behalf of lead filer, New York State Comptroller Thomas DePaoli, trustee of New York State Retirement Fund, owner of Tesla shares valued at over 650 million as of March of this year. And I’m here as a co-filer of proposal eight. The fund is a significant long term owner of Tesla and has an explicit focus on investing in climate solutions. LongView large cap funds through its trustee Amalgamated Bank, AP Seven, and our Juna join us in filing this resolution. Our firm name Nia means intention and purpose. We invest only in those companies we see building toward a better world, a sustainable and inclusive future. As the founder of Nia, I had been proud in our early ownership of Tesla. I saw the potential and the need for innovation in the automotive and the clean energy market space. However, when looking under the frunk we find failures in workplace management—one of the most important components of any business. Employees need to be hired, trained, motivated, and engaged to do high-quality work, and we need those employees to be able to contribute to their top ability. To do so, they must feel both physically and emotionally safe at work. Investors are requesting the report outlined in proposal eight because workplace abuse, harassment, and discrimination have no place at Tesla. That can result in substantial costs, including employee turnover, increased absenteeism, and reduced productivity, as well as legal costs, all of which can impact shareholders’ investments in the company. They may also lead to difficulties in recruiting high-quality employees, something that Tesla needs to remain innovative and at the forefront of a quickly-moving technological landscape. We have expressed concerns about Tesla’s workplace for years, and year after year, more harassment and discrimination allegations have emerged with few visible improvements in Tesla’s people, management policies, or practices to assuage our concerns. Lawsuits and class actions before Tesla now involve thousands of employees, with allegations including repeated use of racial epithets by managers and employees, segregation, and discrimination against non-white employees in job assignments, pay and promotion, and retaliation when employees report their experiences. These concerns are why I now formally move proposal eight, requesting that Tesla’s board commission an independent report on the effectiveness of the company’s efforts to prevent harassment and discrimination within this revolutionary and innovative workspace. Thank you.谢谢。大家好,我是 Nia Impact Capital 的 Kristen Hall 博士。我受纽约州主计长 Thomas DePaoli(纽约州退休基金受托人)委托出席,该基金持有的 Tesla 股票截至今年 3 月市值超过 6.5 亿美元,今天我作为第八号提案的联合提案方出席发言。该基金是 Tesla 重要的长期股东,明确专注于气候解决方案投资领域。LongView Large Cap Funds(受托方为 Amalgamated Bank)、AP Seven 以及我们的 Juna 均作为联合提案方加入了这份提案。我们公司的名字 Nia 在斯瓦希里语中意为"意图与目标"。我们只投资那些我们认为正在建设更美好世界、迈向可持续与包容未来的企业。作为 Nia 的创始人,我曾为持有 Tesla 股份而深感自豪——我看到了汽车和清洁能源领域创新的潜力与必要性。然而,当我们深入审视时,却发现了职场管理方面的严重问题——而这恰恰是任何企业最核心的组成部分之一。员工需要被雇用、培训、激励和投入,才能输出高质量的工作;而要做到这一点,他们必须在工作中感到身心安全。投资者要求第八号提案中提到的报告,正是因为职场虐待、骚扰和歧视在 Tesla 毫无立足之地。这些问题会带来实质性的代价,包括员工离职、旷工率上升、生产效率下降,以及法律诉讼成本,而这些都会损害股东投资。同时,它们还可能导致高素质人才招募困难,而 Tesla 要保持创新并在瞬息万变的科技竞争中处于前沿,恰恰离不开这些人才。多年来我们持续表达对 Tesla 职场环境的忧虑,而一年又一年,更多的骚扰和歧视指控不断浮出水面,Tesla 在人员管理政策或实践上却鲜有可见的改善来回应我们的关切。目前 Tesla 面临的诉讼和集体诉讼已涉及数千名员工,指控内容包括管理人员和员工反复使用种族歧视词汇、对非白人员工在工作分配、薪酬和晋升方面实施隔离与歧视,以及当员工举报时遭到打击报复。基于这些关切,我正式提出第八号提案,请求 Tesla 董事会委托开展一项独立报告,评估公司在这一充满革新精神的工作环境中防止骚扰与歧视的举措是否有效。谢谢。

25:11

Brandon ErhartThank you, Dr. Hall. The board’s responses set forth in the proxy materials. Let’s turn to the fourth stockholder proposal which is an advisory vote regarding the adoption of freedom of association and collective bargaining policy. Our board has recommended against for the reasons set forth in the proxy. This stockholder proposal is proposed by SOC investment group, whose representative, Tejal Patel, has prepared a pre-recorded message.谢谢,Hall 博士。董事会的回应已载于委托材料。下面我们进入第四项股东提案,即关于采纳结社自由与集体谈判政策的顾问投票。董事会建议反对,理由已在委托书中阐明。该提案由 SOC Investment Group 提出,其代表 Tejal Patel 已录制了一段预录视频。

26:07

Tejal PatelHello, I’m Tejal Patel, the Executive Director of the SOC Investment Group, and I hereby move proposal nine, a shareholder proposal requesting that Tesla Board of Directors adopt and disclose a non-interference and collective bargaining policy that upholds International Labor Rights standards in its operations. This resolution was submitted with other co-filers and we’re concerned that Tesla’s existing policy fails to clearly explain how conflicts between international and local labor law will be resolved. And because of clear indications that Tesla is not adhering to its current policy despite the operational legal human capital management and reputational risks involved. We recognize that Tesla revised its global human rights policy in April 2023 to explicitly refer to the rights of workers to free association and collective bargaining, but these revisions were fatally compromised. The statement committing to respect these rights includes the qualifier in conformance with local law, rather than referencing the often higher international human rights standards, suggesting that Tesla respects these rights only as explicitly required by local laws. Numerous signs suggest that Tesla is not respecting its workers’ fundamental rights. In Sweden, Tesla has faced months-long strikes and boycotts over what has been characterized as a refusal to bargain. Moreover, as part of its reporting on the situation, Reuters wrote that Tesla has a policy of not signing collective agreements, which, if true, would directly contravene the company’s current policy. In Germany, Tesla faces allegations of refusal to bargain and poor working conditions. In the United States, Tesla has had adverse decisions by the full National Labor Relations Board and the U.S. Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals over labor rights violations. Just last month, the NLRB issued a complaint alleging that restrictions in Tesla’s workplace technology policy served to unlawfully discourage employees from joining unions or acting concertedly. It is also relevant for shareholders to consider the broader human capital management risks Tesla faces, including reports of higher health and safety violations and injury rates than peers, and numerous lawsuits alleging of hostile work environments. Freedom of association and collective bargaining are considered enabling rights, meaning that they empower workers to effectively advocate for additional labor rights, including the right to a safe and healthy workplace, free from discrimination. The adoption of a comprehensive labor rights policy that clearly articulates a commitment to non-interference, good faith collective bargaining, and adherence to higher international standards would help Tesla better mitigate these human capital management risks, as well as operational and reputational risks like we are seeing and Sweden. Therefore, we urge you to vote for item nine. Thank you.你好,我是 SOC Investment Group 执行主任 Tejal Patel。我在此正式提出第九号提案——一项股东提案,请求 Tesla 董事会采纳并公开一项不干预及集体谈判政策,在其运营中维护国际劳工权利标准。本决议由多名联合提案方共同提交。我们担忧 Tesla 现行政策未能明确说明国际劳工法与当地劳工法之间的冲突如何解决,同时也担忧有迹象表明 Tesla 并未切实遵守其现行政策,尽管这涉及运营、法律、人力资本管理及声誉等多方面风险。我们注意到 Tesla 于 2023 年 4 月修订了全球人权政策,明确提及工人的结社自由和集体谈判权利,但这些修订存在根本性缺陷。承诺尊重上述权利的表述中加入了"依照当地法律"的限定语,而非援引通常标准更高的国际人权准则,暗示 Tesla 只会在当地法律明确要求时才尊重这些权利。多个迹象表明 Tesla 并未切实尊重工人的基本权利。在瑞典,Tesla 已面临长达数月的罢工和抵制,原因被描述为拒绝进行集体谈判。此外,路透社在相关报道中写道,Tesla 有一项"不签署集体协议"的政策,如若属实,将直接违反公司现行政策。在德国,Tesla 面临拒绝谈判和恶劣工作条件的指控。在美国,全国劳资关系委员会(NLRB)全体委员和美国第五巡回上诉法院已就劳工权利侵权作出不利于 Tesla 的裁决。就在上个月,NLRB 发出申诉,指控 Tesla 职场技术政策中的限制性规定实质上在非法阻止员工加入工会或开展集体行动。股东们还应关注 Tesla 面临的更广泛人力资本管理风险,包括相较同行有更高的健康与安全违规及伤害率报告,以及大量关于职场敌对环境的诉讼。结社自由和集体谈判被视为赋能性权利,意味着它们能够让工人有效倡导其他劳工权利,包括享有安全健康、免受歧视的工作环境的权利。采纳一项全面的劳工权利政策,明确承诺不干预、善意集体谈判,并遵守更高的国际标准,将有助于 Tesla 更好地应对这些人力资本管理风险,以及我们在瑞典所见到的运营和声誉风险。为此,我们呼吁您投票支持第九号提案。谢谢。

28:36

Brandon ErhartThank you, Ms. Patel. The board’s respons is set forth in the proxy. The fifth stockholder proposal is an advisory vote regarding reporting on effects and risks associated with electromagnetic radiation and wireless technologies. Our board has recommended against for the reasons set forth in the proxy. This stockholder proposal is proposed by Landry Purcell, who’s representative Dr. Devra Davis has prepared a pre-recorded message谢谢,Patel 女士。董事会的回应已载于委托书。第五项股东提案为顾问投票,内容为就电磁辐射和无线技术相关影响与风险进行报告。董事会建议反对,理由已在委托书中阐明。该提案由 Landry Purcell 提出,其代表 Devra Davis 博士已录制了一段预录视频。

29:30

Devra DavisI am Devra Davis, founder of Environmental Health Trust. I am speaking with you today on behalf of shareholder Landry Purcell regarding her proposals seeking an annual report on the risks for magnetic fields and wireless radiation in their products. I’m also speaking on behalf of millions of young children, infants, and toddlers, and pregnant women, who are more vulnerable to wireless radiation, according to the American Academy of Pediatrics. I’m the founding director of the board on environmental studies and toxicology from the National Academy of Sciences, and I’ve published more than 220 scientific articles on environmental health, and have concluded, along with hundreds of other experts, that current exposures to non-ionizing electromagnetic fields called EMF constitute a serious and unrecognized public health risk. Tesla vehicles operate with the 1200-pound battery that emits magnetic fields, and also uses wireless equipment such as Wi-Fi, and radar, emitting wireless radiation. Tesla should provide transparent information on measured exposures and efforts to reduce them. The World Health Organization has concluded that both low levels of EMF and microwave cellular radiation are “possible carcinogens,” the same category as some pesticides and gasoline. The companies that provide secondary insurance, like Lloyd’s of London and Swiss Re, have long considered electromagnetic fields to be uninsurable, comparable to asbestos due to potential health and environmental damages. Tesla’s shareholders have a right to know how the company insures itself against such risks. The fact that current levels may be legal does not mean they are safe. In fact, U.S. regulations were set more than a quarter-century ago. It has been three years since the U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia determined that the FCC had been “arbitrary and capricious” in its failure to consider all the science and refusal to update wireless limits. Tesla has failed to inform consumers about measured levels of magnetic fields and wireless radiation within the automobile or their other products. Infants and toddlers by law are strapped into seats to protect them during crashes, but they have no protection from EMF that can go more deeply into their thinner skulls. To mitigate risks for Tesla, the company could shield its vehicles and ensure wireless attendance could be easily turned off. Hardware and software changes can lower exposures generally. Tesla has developed extremely rigorous compliance and hazard screenings, beyond regulatory requirements for certain toxic chemicals. Investors can encourage the company to take a similar leadership role regarding reducing EMF. It’s time for the company to unambiguously compete on safety regarding wireless radiation and non-ionizing radiation emitted by its products. Thank you.我是 Devra Davis,Environmental Health Trust 创始人。今天我代表股东 Landry Purcell 就其提案发言,该提案寻求就产品中磁场和无线辐射风险发布年度报告。我同时也代表数以百万计的幼儿、婴儿、学步儿以及孕妇发言——根据美国儿科学会的研究,他们对无线辐射更为脆弱。我曾担任美国国家科学院环境研究与毒理学委员会创始主任,发表了逾 220 篇环境健康领域的科学文章,并与数百位其他专家共同得出结论:当前的非电离电磁场(EMF)暴露水平构成严峻且未获充分重视的公共卫生风险。Tesla 车辆搭载重达 1,200 磅的电池,会产生磁场,同时还使用 Wi-Fi、雷达等无线设备,发射无线辐射。Tesla 应就测量所得的暴露水平及降低措施提供透明信息。世界卫生组织已将低频 EMF 和微波蜂窝辐射均列为"可能致癌物",与某些农药和汽油同属一类。为商业企业提供次级保险的机构——如劳合社和瑞士再保险——长期将电磁场视为不可承保风险,将其与石棉相提并论。Tesla 股东有权了解公司如何为上述风险投保。当前暴露水平合法,并不意味着其安全。事实上,美国法规的制定已是二十五年前的事,美国哥伦比亚特区联邦巡回上诉法院三年前已裁定 FCC 在未能审查全部科学证据、拒绝更新无线辐射限值方面"任意武断"。Tesla 未能向消费者告知其汽车或其他产品内部磁场和无线辐射的实测水平。婴幼儿依法被约束在安全座椅中以防止碰撞伤害,却对能够更深入穿透其较薄颅骨的 EMF 毫无防护。为降低 Tesla 的相关风险,公司可以为车辆增加屏蔽层,并确保无线功能可轻松关闭。通过软硬件调整可以普遍降低辐射暴露水平。Tesla 在某些有害化学物质的合规和危害筛查方面已制定了超越监管要求的严格标准,投资者可以鼓励公司在电磁辐射领域采取同样的领导力作为。是时候让公司在无线辐射和产品非电离辐射安全方面明确树立竞争标准了。谢谢。

32:03

Brandon ErhartThank you, Dr. Davis. The board’s response is set forth in the proxy. Let’s move on to the sixth stockholder proposal, which is an advisory vote regarding adopting targets and reporting on metrics to assess the feasibility of integrating sustainability metrics and to senior executive compensation plans. Our board has recommended against for the reasons set forth in the proxy. This stockholder proposal is proposed by Tulipshare Securities Limited, whose representative, Constance Ricketts, has prepared a pre-recorded message谢谢,Davis 博士。董事会的回应已载于委托书。下面进入第六项股东提案,即关于采纳目标并就将可持续发展指标纳入高管薪酬计划的可行性进行报告的顾问投票。董事会建议反对,理由已在委托书中阐明。该提案由 Tulipshare Securities Limited 提出,其代表 Constance Ricketts 已录制了一段预录视频。

33:02

Constance RickettsGood afternoon. Fellow shareholders, thank you for your time. I’m Constance Ricketts and today I’m speaking on behalf of Tulipshare, in support of proposal 11, urging Tesla to integrate sustainability metrics, including diversity among senior executives, into executive compensation plans. This proposal calls for robust quantitative targets and transparent reporting to both resolve executive pay plan controversies and ensure our company’s long-term stability and success. Diversity and independence in leadership are essential for innovation and enhanced decision-making, while sustainability metrics and executive compensation reflect alignment with regulatory pressures, investor expectations, and responsible business practices. Despite 75 percent of S&P 500 companies incorporating sustainability metrics into executive pay plans, Tesla fails to do so. This is especially concerning given our mission to accelerate the world’s transition to renewable energy, the recent ruling that voided our CEO’s $56 billion dollar pay package highlighted the need for fair and negotiated compensation plans that serve stockholders’ best interests. Tesla’s proxy statement does not offer substantive evidence of how the voided 2018 award harms stockholder democracy or how its ratification will cure prior deficiencies and lead to a different outcome. Likewise, the opposition to this proposal fails to show any evidence of an existing performance-based component integrated into the executive pay structure that respects established human rights due diligence processes and principles. Instead, it cites its human rights policy that is wholly unrelated to executive compensation and doubles down on the argument that the currently-contested executive pay structure is the only means of motivation to achieve our company’s mission. This commitment to the status quo essentially dismisses the ongoing controversies that Tesla must face and overcome, including softening sales, advancing competition, split focus in leadership, a 30-percent drop in stock price, reduced market cap, mass layoffs, human rights violations, and ongoing legal challenges. Tesla’s executives absolutely should be duly compensated for innovative and successful business. However, stockholder democracy allows us to oppose demands like 25 percent control of the company and the largest pay package in corporate American history via further share issuance. We also have the right to vote for leadership’s compensation to be commensurate with financial and sustainability performance. This does not mean we do not respect our leadership’s time, energy, and contributions. Quite the contrary, as it is our duty as stockholders to ensure long-term viability and success for our company.下午好。各位股东,感谢您的宝贵时间。我是 Constance Ricketts,今天代表 Tulipshare 发言,支持第十一号提案,呼吁 Tesla 将可持续发展指标(包括高管层的多元化指标)纳入高管薪酬方案。该提案要求制定严格的量化目标并提供透明报告,以解决高管薪酬方案争议,确保公司的长期稳定性与可持续成功。领导层的多元化与独立性有助于激发创新和提升决策质量;将可持续发展指标纳入高管薪酬,则体现了与监管压力、投资者预期以及负责任商业实践的一致性。尽管 S&P 500 中已有 75% 的公司将可持续发展指标纳入高管薪酬方案,Tesla 仍未采纳。这一点尤其令人担忧,因为我们的使命正是加速全球向可再生能源的转型。近期法院裁定废除价值 560 亿美元的 CEO 薪酬包,突显了建立公平、协商达成且符合股东最大利益的薪酬方案之必要性。Tesla 的委托说明书没有提供实质性证据,说明被废除的 2018 年授权如何损害股东民主,也没有说明追认该方案能如何纠正此前的缺陷并带来不同结果。同样,针对本提案的反对意见也未能提供任何证据,证明现行高管薪酬结构中存在与既定人权尽职调查流程和原则相符的绩效挂钩机制,而只是援引了一份与高管薪酬完全无关的人权政策,并进一步坚持认为目前这个存在争议的高管薪酬结构是激励实现公司使命的唯一手段。这种固守现状的态度,实质上是在无视 Tesla 必须直面和克服的持续争议,包括销售疲软、竞争加剧、领导层精力分散、股价下跌 30%、市值缩水、大规模裁员、人权问题以及持续的法律挑战。Tesla 的高管绝对应该因创新和成功经营而获得相应报酬。然而,股东民主赋予我们权利,去反对那些索取公司 25% 控制权以及通过进一步增发股份实现的美国企业史上最大薪酬包的要求。我们同样有权投票,要求领导层的薪酬与财务和可持续发展业绩相匹配。这并不意味着我们不尊重领导层的时间、精力和贡献,恰恰相反,确保公司长期可行性与成功正是我们作为股东的职责所在。

35:39

Brandon ErhartThank you, Ms. Ricketts. The board’s response is set forth in the proxy. Let’s move on to the seventh stockholder proposal, which is an advisory vote regarding committing to a moratorium on sourcing minerals from deep sea mining. Our board has recommended against for the reasons set forth in the proxy. This proposal is proposed by As You Sow, whose representative, Elizabeth Levy has also recorded a pre-recorded message.谢谢,Ricketts 女士。董事会的回应已载于委托书。下面进入第七项股东提案,即关于承诺对从深海采矿获取矿物实施暂停令的顾问投票。董事会建议反对,理由已在委托书中阐明。该提案由 As You Sow 提出,其代表 Elizabeth Levy 也录制了一段预录视频。

36:33

Elizabeth LevyGood afternoon Chairman, members of the board. My name is Elizabeth Levy representing As You Sow, speaking on proposal number 12. We know more about the surface of Mars than we do about the bottom of the ocean. Even so, a new industry is moving forward to exploit the deep sea. We believe this industry poses risks to Tesla now and into the future. Deep sea mining is the process of dredging the ocean floor to extract battery-related minerals. It will indiscriminately destroy habitats and obliterate life in its path. Seabed mining could release carbon stores and toxic sediment plumes, poisoning marine food chains, and disrupting sea life breeding and migration. The deep sea is complex and abundant with life. Its ecosystems are slow-growing and fragile, with little to no ability to recover from outside disturbance. Plans are moving forward to launch the process for commercial scale deep sea mining with or without regulation. Tesla’s membership in the OECD and IRMA mining protocols does not resolve this issue, as neither currently applies to mining in the deep sea. Over 800 marine science and policy experts, 25 countries, 72 indigenous groups, and 48 companies are calling for a ban, moratorium, or precautionary pause on deep sea mining. This includes Tesla’s competitors BMW, Renault, Rivian, Volkswagen, and Volvo. Even General Motors has stated it does not plan to use deep sea mining, minerals. Our company’s public stance on deep sea mining matters. Tesla is the face of the EV transition, and its ambiguous position on deep sea mining could drive investment in this controversial industry. Conversely, a clear stance restricting Tesla’s use of deep sea minerals can drive innovation and battery mineral tech, recycling, and circularity. With these technologies, even the most ambitious future EV scenarios could be met without harming the deep sea. Tesla’s failure to take a stand on deep sea mining, combined with the fact that a former Tesla board director is now serving as a board member and Special Advisor to the CEO of The Metals Company, the very company leading the charge on deep sea mining, raises concerns. Such a relationship appears to imply that Tesla supports The Metals Company and its deep sea mining activities. Committing to a moratorium will clarify expectations and reduce reputational harm to the company, assuring customers and investors that Tesla will indeed wait until science shows deep sea mining will not cause significant or irreparable damage. Thank you.下午好,董事会主席及各位董事会成员。我叫 Elizabeth Levy,代表 As You Sow 就第十二号提案发言。我们对火星表面的了解甚至超过对海底的认知。即便如此,一个全新的产业正在推进开采深海。我们认为这一产业目前及未来都将给 Tesla 带来风险。深海采矿是指对海床进行疏浚以提取与电池相关矿物的过程,它将不加选择地摧毁海洋栖息地并消灭沿途生命。海床采矿可能释放碳储量和有毒沉积物羽流,毒化海洋食物链,破坏海洋生物的繁殖和迁徙。深海生态系统繁复而丰富,其演化缓慢且脆弱,几乎无法从外部干扰中恢复。商业规模深海采矿的推进计划正在有条不紊地推进,无论是否有相应法规约束。Tesla 加入 OECD 和 IRMA 采矿协议并不能解决这一问题,因为这两项协议目前均不适用于深海采矿。逾 800 名海洋科学与政策专家、25 个国家、72 个原住民群体以及 48 家企业正在呼吁对深海采矿实施禁令、暂停令或预防性暂停。其中包括 Tesla 的竞争对手 BMW、Renault、Rivian、Volkswagen 和 Volvo,甚至通用汽车也已声明不计划使用深海采矿矿物。公司对深海采矿的公开立场至关重要。Tesla 是电动车转型的代名词,其在深海采矿问题上的暧昧态度可能推动对这一争议性产业的投资。反之,明确限制 Tesla 使用深海矿物的立场,可以推动电池矿物技术、回收利用和循环经济方面的创新。借助这些技术,即便是最宏大的电动车发展愿景,也能在不危害深海的前提下实现。Tesla 未能就深海采矿表明立场,加之前 Tesla 董事会成员现担任深海采矿领军企业 The Metals Company 的董事及 CEO 特别顾问,这一关联令人忧虑,似乎暗示 Tesla 支持 The Metals Company 及其深海采矿活动。承诺实施暂停令将厘清预期,降低公司声誉损害,向客户和投资者保证,Tesla 确实会等到科学证明深海采矿不会造成重大或不可挽回的损害后,再作决策。谢谢。

39:08

Brandon ErhartThank you Miss Levy. The board’s respons is set forth in the proxy. Please note that now is the final opportunity to submit any votes in order for them to be counted. I declare that the polls are now closed. Based on the proxies that we’ve received, and the votes submitted at this meeting, I’d like to announce the results on a preliminary basis. With respect to the seven stockholder proposals, our stockholders have approved the recommendations of the Tesla board on all of them except for proposal six regarding director terms, and proposal seven regarding simple majority voting. Now, moving on to the five Tesla proposals. First, our stockholders have approved the election of our two Class 2 directors, James Murdoch and Kimball Musk, to serve for a term of three years and until their respective successors are duly elected and qualified. Second, our stockholders have approved executive compensation on a non-binding advisory basis. Third, our stockholders have approved the ratification of appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as Tesla’s independent registered public accounting firm for the 2024 fiscal year. Fourth, our stockholders have approved the re-domestication of Tesla from Delaware to Texas. Fifth, and finally, our stockholders have approved the ratification of the 100 percent performance-based stock option award to Elon Musk that was approved by stockholders in 2018. The meeting is now closed and, with that, Tesla shareholders, let’s welcome Elon Musk. (Recorded video montage ft. Musk and news personalities):谢谢,Levy 女士。董事会的回应已载于委托书。请注意,现在是最后提交投票的机会,过时不候。我宣布投票通道正式关闭。根据我们收到的委托书及本次会议提交的选票,我现在初步公布结果。七项股东提案方面,股东们已就全部提案采纳了 Tesla 董事会的建议,但涉及董事任期的第六号提案和涉及简单多数投票的第七号提案除外。现在进入五项 Tesla 提案。第一,股东已批准选举两名第二类董事 James Murdoch 和 Kimball Musk,任期三年,直至各自继任者依法当选并就职。第二,股东已以非约束性顾问方式批准高管薪酬方案。第三,股东已批准追认任命 PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP 为 Tesla 2024 财年独立注册会计师事务所。第四,股东已批准 Tesla 从特拉华州迁册至德克萨斯州。第五,最后,股东已批准追认 2018 年获股东批准的 Elon Musk 100% 业绩挂钩股票期权奖励方案。会议至此正式结束,Tesla 的股东们,让我们有请 Elon Musk。(播放含 Musk 及媒体人物的视频剪辑:)

42:23

Elon MuskThe goal is to give people hope that there is a path to a fully sustainable global economy that we are on that path that we are accelerating that path and that, so long as we don’t get complacent about it, it will happen.目标是让人们看到希望——希望通往全球完全可持续经济的道路是存在的,我们正走在这条路上,我们正在加速前进,只要我们不沾沾自喜,它就一定会实现。

42:56

Per LekanderThis was really the beginning of the end of the Tesla bubble. I actually think the company could go bust.这其实是 Tesla 泡沫走向终结的开端。我实际上认为这家公司可能会破产。

43:03

Unknown News AnchorTesla’s Model Y is the world’s best-selling car, beating out Toyota RAV-4 and Corolla its models.Tesla Model Y 成为全球最畅销汽车,击败丰田 RAV-4 和 Corolla 等车型。

43:10

Elon MuskRegarding FSD version 12, efficacy version is profound. The rate of improvement is rapid. It might be the biggest asset value appreciation history when you can do unsupervised or Full Self-Driving.关于 FSD version 12,其效能之深刻令人震撼,提升速度也非常之快。一旦实现无监督或完全自动驾驶,这可能是历史上最大规模的资产价值升值。

43:22

Unknown AnalystSounds like a story stock. Autonomous taxi? Can you really balance your checkbook with those sort of pie in the sky predictions like that?这听起来像是一只概念股。自动驾驶出租车?你真的能用这类空中楼阁式的预测来平衡收支吗?

43:31

Elon MuskIf you ask the wrong question, the right answer is impossible. My prediction is that a majority of Tesla’s long term value will be Optimus. And that prediction I’m very confident of. It’s very rare a product comes along that is seemingly impossible that experts said would never be made. And this is one of those times. Finally, the future will look like the future. People say like “why did you make a bulletproof?” I’m like, “Why not?” Energy storage deployments, the Megapack in particular, reached an all-time high in Q1 leading to record profitability for the energy business. This is the machine that builds the machine and the factory is the product and this building is the most advanced car factory that Earth has ever seen. If you value Tesla as an auto company, it’s the wrong framework. If somebody doesn’t believe Tesla’s gonna solve autonomy, I think they should not be an investor in the company. But we will, and we are. (Recorded video montage ends and Musk enters the stage):如果你问的是错误的问题,正确答案就无从得出。我的预测是:Tesla 长期价值的大头将来自 Optimus,这一点我非常确信。极少有产品是那种看似不可能实现、专家说永远不会被制造出来的东西——而这就是其中之一。未来终于要有未来的样子了。有人问我"你为什么要把车做成防弹的?"我说"为什么不呢?"储能部署方面,尤其是 Megapack,Q1 创下历史新高,带动能源业务盈利创纪录。这是制造机器的机器,工厂就是产品,这栋建筑是地球上有史以来最先进的汽车工厂。如果你把 Tesla 定性为一家汽车公司,那就是用了错误的框架。如果有人不相信 Tesla 能解决自动驾驶问题,我认为他们就不应该投资这家公司。但我们会做到,我们正在做到。(视频剪辑结束,Musk 走上台:)

45:13

Elon MuskHey guys! Welcome to the Tesla shareholder meeting. I just want to start off by saying, hot damn, I love you guys. Yeah. We have the most awesome shareholder base. I mean, any public company, it’s incredible. Wow. So and, we’ve got a great sort of shareholder meeting here to recap the achievements of the company and tell you about where we’re going, and I think it’s incredible.嘿,大家好!欢迎来到 Tesla 股东大会。我想先说一句,哇塞,我爱死你们了!是的,我们拥有最棒的股东群体,任何上市公司里都是,太不可思议了。好,我们今天的股东大会内容很精彩,要回顾公司的成就、告诉你们我们的方向,我觉得这将令人叹为观止。

45:55

Elon MuskWe’re not just opening a new chapter for Tesla, we’re starting a new book. So, those of you who’ve been following Tesla closely understand, like you get it, you know. So like, the important thing is you get it. Yeah, where things are going I think is just going to be absolutely mind-blowing. We’re obviously making great progress in solving the sustainable energy problem, you know, with electric vehicles, with stationary storage, with solar. And I think in terms of the, the value of the company, autonomy is just such a mind-blowing thing that, like I said, you guys understand, but I think most of the world does not yet understand.我们不只是在开启 Tesla 的新篇章,我们是在开启一本全新的书。一直紧密关注 Tesla 的人都懂的,你们懂,知道吗?关键是你们懂。我认为未来的走向简直会让人目瞪口呆。我们在解决可持续能源问题上显然取得了巨大进展——电动汽车、固定储能、太阳能,都在推进。就公司价值而言,自动驾驶是一件如此令人震撼的事情,就像我说的,你们懂,但我觉得世界上大多数人还不懂。

46:37

Elon MuskIn talking to a lot of the sort of big institutional investors, they’re often in like New York, and they don’t drive cars. So I’d be like, “Have you driven our car? Have you tried Self-Driving? You know, the version 12.3?” And they’re like, “Oh, no.” “Okay, well you should try it. That would be a good thing to do.” And if you just plot the points on the curve of how well autonomy is progressing, and just believe the curve, it’s headed towards unsupervised Full Self-Driving very quickly, at an exponential pace. It’s really as simple as that.跟很多大型机构投资者交流的时候,他们很多都在纽约,出行不开车。我就会问他们:"你开过我们的车吗?你试过自动驾驶吗?比如 version 12.3 这个版本?"他们说:"哦,没有。""好,你应该去试试,这是件很有必要做的事。"如果你把自动驾驶进步曲线上的点连起来,然后相信这条曲线,它正在以指数速度飞速趋向无监督完全自动驾驶。就是这么简单。

47:58

Elon MuskAnd in fact, I invite you to just do it personally. Just say “okay, with each release, how many miles do you drive before you have to intervene?” It’s like literally that simple. And with each release, you’ll see that there’s a big improvement, big improvement, and it looks like an exponential. And it’s very clear that that will actually go to the point where it is actually far safer than a person driving the car. I have some insight into, you know, the next releases because we’ve got, basically, for every release that’s on the road, we kind of see what the next generation release is, and a little bit about the release after that. So we have some insight into where it’s going and it’s really amazing. No question whatsoever that will far exceed human safety. Yeah, no question.其实我邀请你们亲自去体验一下。就问自己一个问题:"每次版本更新,你得开多少英里才需要人工接管?"字面意义上就这么简单。你会发现每次发布都有巨大的提升,巨大的提升,就像一条指数曲线。而且非常清楚,这条曲线最终会到达一个节点——自动驾驶的安全性将真正远超人类驾驶。因为我们每个跑在路上的版本背后,我们大概能看到下一代版本是什么样,以及再下一代的一些情况,所以我对未来走向有些内部认知,真的非常惊艳。毫无疑问,它将远超人类驾驶安全水平,毫无疑问。

48:39

Elon MuskAnd I think I have mentioned this. Like, sometimes it’s helpful to sort of reiterate and connect some of the dots, because sometimes people wonder, “well, how do you go from this big fleet, to actually monetizing the fleet in an autonomous situation?” And it’s actually a combination of like, Airbnb, and Uber to some degree. So like, there’ll be some cars that Tesla owns itself, it’s kind of like an Uber fashion, but then for the fleet that is owned by our customers, it will be like an AirBnb thing. You can add or subtract your car to the fleet whenever you want. So you can say like, “I’m going away for a week.” Just one tap on your Tesla app, your car gets added to the fleet, and it just makes money for you while you’re gone. So you can say you can add it to the fleet for a few hours, for a few days, for a few weeks. Whenever you want to back, you can say “come back” and the car will come right back. And I’m highly confident that it will far exceed, the value of like the revenue made by the owner of the car, will far exceed the actual monthly payment. And then Tesla will obviously take a rev share on that, but most of the money will go to the owner of the car.我之前也提过这一点,有时候把这些点连起来说清楚是有帮助的,因为大家有时会好奇:"那这么大的车队,怎么能在无人监督的情况下真正实现变现?"实际上它的模式有点像 Airbnb 加 Uber 的结合体。会有一部分车是 Tesla 自营的,有点像 Uber 的形式;而用户自有车辆组成的车队,则更像 Airbnb 的模式——你可以随时将自己的车加入或退出车队。比如你可以说"我要出门一周",在 Tesla App 上轻点一下,你的车就加入了车队,在你离开期间自动为你赚钱。你可以把它加入几小时、几天或几周,随时想取回就说一声"回来",车就自己开回来了。我高度确信,车主从中获得的收入,将远远超过车的月供金额。Tesla 当然会从中抽取一定比例的分成,但大部分钱都归车主所有。

50:28

Elon MuskAnd it’s… this is actually going to work. This is what will happen. So, I mean, mark my words. This is this is simply a matter of time. Now, admittedly I’m a little optimistic sometimes. You know, I don’t have a complete lack of self awareness. But if I wasn’t optimistic, this wouldn’t exist this factory wouldn’t exist. So, that’s what my brother, who is awesome, just got re-elected… no, sorry. So, a little anecdote. When were kids in school, my brother would tell me the wrong time for the bus, so that I wouldn’t miss the bus. And then it’d be upset with him like, “Why’d you tell me the bus was gonna come earlier than it was?” And he’s like, “Well, because otherwise you’d be late for the bus.” This is an actual thing that would happen, so I guess I’ve been sort of pathologically optimistic from birth. But like, that’s the reason why this is all the stuff is happening anyway, it’s like, I gotta be somewhat pathologically optimistic, but I do deliver in the end. That’s the important thing. So, yeah.这件事……这是真的会发生的。就是这样,请记住我说的话,这只是时间问题。当然,我承认有时候我会略显乐观——我不是完全没有自知之明。但如果我不够乐观,这家工厂根本不会存在。这就是为什么我弟弟——他很棒,刚刚获得连任……不对,等等。讲个小故事。小时候上学,我弟弟总是告诉我比实际早一点的公交发车时间,这样我就不会错过车。我就生气地问他:"你为什么告诉我车会来得那么早?"他说:"因为不这样你就会迟到。"这是真实发生过的事,所以我想我大概是天生就有点病态乐观症。但正是这种病态乐观,才让这一切得以实现。我最终是会兑现承诺的,这才是关键。好,就是这样。

51:36

Elon MuskAnd it’s really just gonna be something else. And I’ve mentioned this before, but for Ark Invest, I’d recommend reading the Ark Invest analysis. That’s the most accurate. There may be more accurate ones, but the most accurate sort of analysis of the potential of autonomy, the most accurate that I’m aware of is, is Cathie Woods’, Ark Invest. And if I recall correctly, they predicted somewhere over a $5 trillion valuation for Tesla just based on vehicle autonomy, not counting Optimus. Yeah, I agree with that. So I think, I think just based on vehicle autonomy, we can we can 10x, more than 10x, the value of the company. I believe that’s what will happen. And what do you know, it’s 4:20 p.m. Just noticed that. So, I think that’s actually, that’s pretty accurate.这件事真的会是另一个层次。我以前也提过,对于 Ark Invest,我建议大家去看 Ark Invest 的分析,那是我所知道的最准确的分析之一——关于自动驾驶潜力的最准确分析。如果我没记错,他们预测仅凭车辆自动驾驶业务,Tesla 的估值就可以超过 5 万亿美元,还没算 Optimus。我同意这个判断。所以我认为,就车辆自动驾驶这一项,就能让公司价值提升 10 倍甚至更多,我相信这会发生。对了,现在正好是下午 4:20,刚注意到这个。我觉得这个数字还挺准的。

53:12

Elon MuskBut it actually gets way crazier when you think about the the Optimus robot, which is really a humanoid robot that is intended to be able to do anything you want it to do. It can be your companion, it can be at your house, it can sort of babysit your kids. It can teach them, great teacher. It can do factory stuff. Like I think that the ultimate ratio of say how many super-useful humanoid, helper droids do you want? Like who doesn’t want a C-3PO, you know? You know, but a C-3PO plus an R2-D2 plus, you know, plus plus. It would be pretty awesome. I think everyone in the world is gonna want one, like literally everyone. And then there’ll be obviously robots in industry, making stuff. I think the ratio of humanoid robots to humans will probably be at least two to one, something like that. One to one for sure. Which means like somewhere around the order of 10 million humanoid robots, maybe 20 or 30.但当你想到 Optimus 机器人——一款真正意义上的人形机器人,旨在能做任何你想让它做的事——那就疯狂多了。它可以成为你的伴侣,可以待在你家里,可以帮你照看孩子,可以教导孩子,是个很棒的老师,也可以在工厂里干活。你想想,全球有多少人会想要这样一个超级实用的人形助手机器人?谁不想要 C-3PO 呢?一个 C-3PO 加 R2-D2 再加上更多,那真的很厉害。我认为全世界每个人都会想要一台,字面意义上的每个人。而工业领域也会有大量机器人来制造各种东西。我认为人形机器人与人类的比例最终可能会达到至少二比一,或者至少一比一。这意味着大约在 100 亿台人形机器人的量级,甚至 200 亿或 300 亿台。

54:59

Elon MuskAnd so then it’s like, okay, well, let’s say the baud rate is… I think the baud rate will be probably something ultimately, like a billion a year humanoid robots, like actually. And if Tesla just has a 10 percent share of that, and it might be a lot more than 10 percent, and we make like 100 million Optimus units a year. I mean, for reference, the auto industry is roughly 100 million vehicles per year. So that sort of similar ballpark at least within an order of magnitude. And I think we could make one for a cost of maybe at at really high scale of about $10,000. It’d be less expensive than a car. And I think if you sell it for $20,000, I think, this is at large scale volume, Tesla would basically make about a trillion dollars of profit a year from that. If the price earnings multiple is saying under 20, or 25, something like that, that would mean a $20 trillion market cap from Optimus alone, and probably 5 to 10 from autonomous vehicles. So like I think it’s actually conceivable, it’s within the realm of possibility for Tesla to achieve a valuation 10 times that of the most valuable company today.然后你就会想,好吧,假设生产速率是……我认为最终生产速率大概会达到每年 10 亿台人形机器人,这不是开玩笑。如果 Tesla 只拿到 10% 的市场份额——实际上可能远不止 10%——我们每年就能生产 1 亿台 Optimus。作为参照,全球汽车行业每年产量大约也是 1 亿辆,规模差不多。我认为在超大规模生产下,每台的成本大约可以做到 10,000 美元,比一辆车还便宜。如果卖 20,000 美元——在大规模量产阶段——Tesla 每年从中获得的利润大约会达到一万亿美元。如果市盈率在 20 或 25 左右,那仅 Optimus 一项就对应 20 万亿美元的市值,再加上自动驾驶车辆贡献的 5 到 10 万亿美元。所以我认为这在现实中是完全可以想象的——Tesla 有可能达到当今全球最高市值公司的 10 倍估值。

56:25

Elon MuskSo when I say this is like we’re starting a new book, I mean, it’s gonna be the best book. Next level. Next, next, next, next level. We’re gonna make sure these robots are nice to us and you know, that’s very important. So anyway, with that, let me get into the presentation. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah. I think it might be worth just putting a word limit on future shareholder proposals. It’s like, you can’t have like a novel length. You can’t have a whole novel as a Tesla proposal.所以当我说我们正在开启一本全新的书,我是说这将是一本最精彩的书。更高层级,更更更高层级。我们要确保这些机器人对我们友善,这一点非常重要。好,说到这里,我们进入正式演讲。废话废话废话废话废话。我觉得以后的股东提案应该加个字数上限,不能写成长篇大论,不能把一整本小说当成 Tesla 提案来提交。

57:49

Elon MuskSo, as you can see, our impact is accelerating, you know, we’re starting to make a real noticeable dent in carbon emissions. So we’re really, you know, making a lot of progress towards achieving a goal of sustainability. And one of the effects of autonomy is actually is going to be an even greater effect on carbon emissions because I suspect that we’ll go from passenger cars having about 10 hours of usage per week, about an hour and a half per day, to probably 30 hours in the week, maybe 50-55 hours, which means the same car will be used five times more often. So you need a certain amount of resources to make the car but we’ll have five times the usage in my opinion. I think that’s quite likely, which will be an even more dramatic impact on carbon emissions.如你们所见,我们的影响正在加速。我们开始在碳排放方面留下真正可以察觉的印记,在实现可持续发展目标上取得了很大进展。自动驾驶还会带来一个额外的效果——对碳排放的影响将更加显著。因为我预计,私家车的使用时间将从目前每周大约 10 小时(即每天约 1.5 小时),增加到每周 30 小时,甚至 50 到 55 小时——这意味着同一辆车的使用频率将提高约五倍。制造一辆车所需的资源是固定的,但使用率将提升五倍,这将对碳排放产生更为深远的影响,我认为这相当可能发生。

58:23

Elon MuskSo, we care a lot about sustainable manufacturing. Our factories are beautiful, you walk around the factory, it’s actually you know, contrary to what you read in the press, it’s a good vibe in the factory, like people are smiling and happy. It’s nice. So, I mean, we do care. We actually do care a lot at Tesla about doing the right thing. And we’re not going to be perfect, but we do care a lot about doing the right thing. So our vehicles are water efficient, energy efficient. We try whenever possible to use renewables for powering the factory and we do our best to do the right thing. Our batteries are lasting, longer… I got too many things in my hand. The batteries are lasting a lot longer, which is good. Safety is good in the factory.我们非常重视可持续制造。我们的工厂很漂亮,走进去——跟媒体上写的那些截然相反——氛围真的很好,大家脸上都是笑容,很愉快,很舒适。所以,我们确实很在乎 Tesla 在做正确的事。我们不会做到完美,但我们真的非常在乎做正确的事。我们的车辆用水高效、用能高效,我们尽可能为工厂使用可再生能源,并尽最大努力做正确的事。我们的电池寿命越来越长……手上东西太多了。电池寿命越来越长,这很好。工厂安全状况也不错。

1:00:03

Elon MuskWe’re improving the affordability of EVs. You know Model Y is comparable to BMW X3, but its actual cost of ownership on a monthly basis is much lower. We were number one in EVs globally last year, so yeah. Let’s see. And congrats to the Tesla team on making 6 million vehicles all-time. The Tesla fleet is really becoming very substantial. I mean, it’s gonna be 7 million vehicles by the end of this year, over 7 million vehicles. We have our factory in Fremont is currently the highest-volume auto factory in North America. And we broke the prior production record from when it was NUMMI.我们在持续提升电动车的可及性。Model Y 与 BMW X3 相当,但实际月均拥有成本低得多。去年我们在全球电动车市场排名第一,是的。对了,恭喜 Tesla 团队累计整车产量突破 600 万辆,Tesla 车队规模已经相当可观了。今年底应该会超过 700 万辆。Fremont 工厂目前是北美产量最高的汽车工厂,我们打破了 NUMMI 时代的历史生产纪录。

1:00:48

Elon MuskIt’s actually pretty wild that we have a giant car factory in the San Francisco Bay Area. It’s not exactly the cheapest place to have a car factory. It’s like that and the Swiss Alps or something. But we still manage to make great cars at high volume, and that’s a testament to the great team we’ve got in Fremont. So congrats to the Fremont team.我们在旧金山湾区拥有一座巨型汽车工厂,这件事说起来挺疯狂的,那地方绝对不是开汽车工厂最便宜的地方,感觉就像在瑞士阿尔卑斯山开厂一样。但我们依然能在这里高效大量地生产出优质汽车,这完全归功于 Fremont 团队的出色表现。向 Fremont 团队致敬。

1:01:45

Elon MuskAnd a lot of people were saying the Cybertruck is like fake, it’s never gonna come out. And now we’re shipping a lot of Cybertrucks. We hit a weekly record of 1,300. And I think with the Cybertruck, It really is something special. Some people have like different opinions on the Cybertruck, but if you really want to know if something is cool, if it’s a great product, like show it to a kid, okay? No filter, okay? A kid’s got like no filter, like a five-year-old, six-year-old, something like that. Or even a three-year-old and say “Which car do you like?” “Cybertruck.” So it’s like, that’s how you know. And it’s finally something that it just looks like the future, and it drives so well. It’s comfortable. It’s just a fantastic product.很多人之前说 Cybertruck 是假的,永远不会量产。但现在我们已经在大量交付 Cybertruck,单周交付纪录达到了 1,300 辆。Cybertruck 真的很特别。有人对它看法不一,但如果你真想知道一件东西是不是很酷、是不是好产品,把它给孩子看,对吧?孩子没有任何滤镜。找个五六岁的小孩,甚至三岁的,问他"你喜欢哪辆车?"——"Cybertruck。"这就是检验方法。它终于有了那种未来感,驾驶体验也极好,舒适,是款出色的产品。

1:02:35

Elon MuskI think it’s our best product, and it’s a lot of innovations. It’s got a 48-volt low-voltage system, finally instead of 12 volts, 800-volt drive train, the world’s biggest castings. It’s bulletproof; all the cool things. It can outpull an F-350 Diesel, which is a very impressive truck, and it can it can do a quarter-mile faster than a Porsche 911 while towing a Porsche 911. That’s insane! So yeah. If you think about it, how often do companies make products that move your heart that are really special? It’s so rare, and I think this is one of them.我认为 Cybertruck 是我们最好的产品,创新点极多。它采用了 48V 低压电气系统(终于告别了 12V)、800V 驱动系统、全球最大的压铸件,还有防弹车身——所有酷炫的东西都有。它的拉力超过 F-350 Diesel(那已经是辆非常厉害的卡车),还能在拖着一辆保时捷 911 的情况下,百米加速比单独一辆保时捷 911 还快。太疯狂了!想想看,有多少公司能做出真正让你心动的产品?极其罕见,我认为 Cybertruck 就是其中之一。

1:04:08

Elon MuskAnd we launched the upgraded 3, which is actually a fantastic car, I’d recommend trying it out. It’s really a great car, and it’s only $216 after gas savings. Like total cost of ownership is basically 200-something dollars when compared to gasoline cars, a similar gasoline car. So it’s really a great deal and a fun car. And the Performance, Model 3 Performance, it’s faster than a Porsche 911. It’s just a great, great car. So yeah. And of course, the Model Y became the best-selling vehicle globally, and this is something that we predicted. I think I said in 2022 the Model Y would be the biggest car in the world by dollar volume sales, and by 2023 it would be the biggest in unit volume, and it was. And again this year it will be the best-selling car on Earth.我们还发布了升级版 Model 3,真的是辆非常出色的车,强烈推荐大家去体验一下。考虑到节省的油费,实际拥有成本只有 216 美元起,跟同级别燃油车相比,月均综合成本基本就是两百多块钱。所以这真的是很划算、驾驶也很有乐趣的选择。Model 3 Performance 版更是比保时捷 911 还快,真的是一辆极好极好的车。当然,Model Y 已经成为全球最畅销车型——这是我们预言过的。我记得 2022 年我说过,Model Y 到那年将成为全球按销售额最大的车型,到 2023 年将成为按销量最大的车型,事实正是如此。今年它依然会是地球上最畅销的汽车。

1:05:23

Elon MuskThe Tesla Semi: we’re in low-volume production of the Tesla Semi, and just last week I approved the plans for volume production of the Tesla Semi. So we’re gonna make a lot of Semi trucks. We’re gonna start off with… Yeah, it’s something I think it’ll actually move the needle financially. It’s not a small thing. The thing about like, commercial vehicles is that companies that use them are super objective. I mean obviously we’re gonna make it have cool style and be an awesome car. But for commercial vehicles, the companies that make the buying decisions, they just look and say like, “What are the numbers? Does this cost less to transport or cost more to transport than, say a diesel truck?” And the thing is the economics are much better than a diesel truck. It’s kind of basically a no-brainer. If you’re a transport company, and you don’t use an electric, the Tesla electric Semi, you’re just losing money. Why would you do that? Do you not like money? Okay. But if you do like money, then I recommend using the Tesla Semi. So I think this is really going to actually sell at a scale that people will be surprised at, and we’ll actually move the needle financially, and do a lot of good. And also for CO2 and sustainability, because Semis are driven all the time. Actually, even at much smaller numbers, they have a very big effect on total carbon emissions solved.Tesla Semi:我们目前处于小批量生产阶段,就在上周,我批准了 Tesla Semi 大规模生产计划。所以我们要造很多台 Semi 卡车。我们会从……是的,我认为这件事在财务层面确实会产生实质性影响,不是小事。关于商用车,购车决策的企业客户极其理性。当然,我们也会把它做得有型、很棒,但商用车领域的企业买家只看一件事:"数字说明了什么?用电 Semi 运输的成本比柴油车便宜还是贵?"答案很清楚——经济账远比柴油卡车合算,基本是不言而喻的。如果你是运输公司却不用特斯拉电动 Semi,你就是在白白亏钱。你是不喜欢赚钱吗?好吧,但如果你喜欢赚钱,我推荐用 Tesla Semi。所以我认为这款车的销量规模会让很多人感到惊讶,确实会在财务上移动指针,同时也会带来巨大的 CO2 减排效益——因为 Semi 几乎全天候在跑,即使数量不多,对总碳排放减少的影响也非常显著。

1:07:18

Elon MuskSo obviously, we’ve got some new new products that we’re working on under the covers and I think these are going to be pretty special. Some of them, I think people maybe at first may think, “Oh, it’s not going to be that amazing,” but just wait. It will be.显然我们还有一些新产品正在幕后研发,我认为这些产品将会非常特别。其中有些,我觉得大家可能一开始会想"哦,感觉也没有那么惊艳嘛",但等着看吧,它们一定会的。

1:08:20

Elon MuskOur Supercharger network is continuing to grow. Rumors of the death of the Supercharger are greatly exaggerated. We are in fact, continuing to grow the Supercharger network significantly. In fact, this year, I think we’re deploying more Superchargers this year that are actually working, than the rest of industry combined. Just FYI. Now we are gonna be more careful about the capital efficiency of where we deploy Superchargers. But for sure, any place that has congestion, any sort of missing parts of the map that we’re missing, we’re gonna put the Superchargers there. Even for the remainder of the year, we expect to spend about half a billion dollars on on Supercharger deployment, so it’s very significant, and it will be a well spent half a billion. It’s a lot. This is actually not showing a bunch of new markets that will be opening up later this year and next. We obviously want Tesla to be worldwide, and there’s still a lot of countries that have zero to very few Teslas, and we obviously want Tesla everywhere. So there are a lot of new markets that we’re gonna open up later this year or next.我们的 Supercharger 网络还在持续扩张。关于 Supercharger 即将消亡的传言,严重地言过其实了。事实上,我们正在大幅扩张 Supercharger 网络。实际上,今年我们部署并投入使用的 Supercharger 数量,我觉得比整个行业其他所有玩家加起来还多。就做个参考。我们会更加注重 Supercharger 部署的资本效率,但任何存在拥堵的地方、地图上任何我们覆盖缺口的地方,我们都会补上充电桩。仅今年剩余时间,我们预计就会在 Supercharger 部署上花费约 5 亿美元,规模非常可观,而且这 5 亿花得很值。这还没有展示今年晚些时候和明年将开放的一批新市场。我们显然希望 Tesla 遍布全球,目前仍有很多国家 Tesla 数量极少甚至为零,我们当然希望 Tesla 开到每个角落。所以今年晚些时候和明年,将会有很多新市场陆续开放。

1:09:29

Elon MuskWe’re also opening our Superchargers to other companies… That’s the adapter to the old, somewhat clunky connector. But our goal is to be helpful to other car companies, so any companies that are going electric, we do want to be helpful to them with our Supercharger network. So we’re providing them with adapters and enabling them to have access to the Tesla Supercharger network, because we think it’s better to do that than to create a walled garden that inhibits EV growth.我们也在向其他车企开放 Supercharger。那个是给以前那种比较笨重的旧接口用的适配器。我们的目标是帮助其他车企,任何正在转向电动化的车企,我们都希望能借助我们的 Supercharger 网络为其助力。所以我们在提供适配器,让他们能够接入 Tesla Supercharger 网络——因为我们认为,与其打造一个封闭的围墙花园阻碍电动车生态扩张,不如这样做。

1:10:41

Elon MuskAnd we’re also innovating a lot in battery production with the 4680 that’s built right here. And it is it’s a hard problem, like there are entire companies that just make battery cells, that’s all they do. But we’re making good progress. All the Cybertrucks that you see use the Tesla 4680 cell, and we have a clear path to the 4680 being, we think, probably the most competitive cell from a manufacturing efficiency standpoint. But it is a hard problem, I have to say. There’s quite a lot of brain damage required to be good at cell manufacturing. It’s like a brain damage high. But I think it does give Tesla resilience in the face of… if there are changes in the, I don’t know, geopolitical situation somehow. It’s good to have some independence in cell manufacturing. We’re making steady progress and we also have the cathode refinery, which you can see behind the main factory; you can sort of see it in the picture there. That’s the cathode refinery and then we’ve got the lithium refinery in South Texas, and so we’re just making sure we’ve kind of got the pieces of the puzzle. If you were to look at sort of a video of how Tesla does say cathode and lithium refining and how the rest of industry does it, it’s night and day. I mean, you can sort of eat off the floor in the Tesla refinery and I would not recommend doing so in the others. We’re definitely going very vertical here, but I think it’s a wise investment that will pay off more than people realize. I don’t think this thing is working.我们也在电池生产上持续大力创新,就在这里生产的 4680 电池就是例证。这是个难题——有的公司专门只做电池,那是他们的全部。但我们正在稳步推进,所有你看到的 Cybertruck 都搭载了 Tesla 4680 电芯,而且我们有清晰的路径,使 4680 在制造效率方面成为最具竞争力的电芯。不过这确实是个难题,我得承认,要做好电池制造需要高强度的脑力损耗——大脑被虐待的那种高。但我认为这确实赋予了 Tesla 足够的韧性——在地缘政治局势发生变化的情况下,拥有一定程度的电池制造自主能力是明智的。我们在稳步推进,同时还有正极材料精炼厂——你可以在主工厂后面看到——还有位于德克萨斯州南部的锂精炼厂,我们就是在把各块拼图逐一到位。如果把 Tesla 在正极和锂精炼方面的做法和行业其他玩家放在一起对比,那真的是天壤之别。Tesla 精炼厂里几乎能在地板上吃饭,而别家的我不建议这么做。我们确实在走深度垂直整合的路线,但我认为这是一项明智的投资,其回报将超出大多数人的预期。我觉得这玩意儿好像不灵了。

1:12:40

Elon MuskSo this year, we’re also on track to complete a massive number of energy deployments, so that is a gigantic increase in deployment capability. We seem to be tracking to sort of a 200- to 300-percent year-over-year growth in energy storage deployment and stationary pack. So it’s giant. And the the limiting factor really is being able to build more Megapacks and build more Powerwalls. So we’re ramping up production of the Powerwall 3, which is really a game-changer for, at the personal level. The Powerwall 3… It usually takes about three iterations of any given technology to really… for it to be something where it’s like “Okay, now we’re really hitting the sweet spot.” So Powerwall 3 is like, an epic product. The Megapack is also—I’d call it sort of iteration two of the Megapack—is also an epic product. With the Megapack 3, which is, I don’t know, probably a couple years away, we’ll start actually absorbing more and more of the substation of the sort of power electronics. I sort of think you want to get to the point with the Megapack where you can literally just take the high-voltage power lines and plug them in. There’s no substation. We just plug them in. Just drop them down and drop it down, and plug it in, and now it works. Which is like mind-blowing for the utility industry by the way. They’re like “What?” Yeah, just plug the wires in and it’ll work for very high voltage. So that I think is actually going to be major. So yeah, this is great. Excellent work by the energy storage team.今年,我们也预计在储能部署方面完成大规模跃升,储能部署产能将实现巨大提升。我们似乎正在实现储能部署和固定储能方面同比 200% 到 300% 的增长,规模极其庞大。真正的限制因素其实是如何生产出更多 Megapack 和 Powerwall。所以我们正在加速 Powerwall 3 的量产,这在个人用户层面是一款真正改变游戏规则的产品。Powerwall 3……通常任何一项技术都要迭代三代,才能真正达到那个"对了,现在终于打到甜蜜点了"的状态。Powerwall 3 就是这样一款史诗级产品。Megapack 也是——我把它定位为 Megapack 的第二代迭代——同样是史诗级产品。至于大概两年后的 Megapack 3,我们会开始真正吸收越来越多的变电站功能,也就是电力电子这一层。我构想的终极目标是:Megapack 能让你直接把高压输电线接进去就完事,不需要变电站,线一插,放下去,接好,它就工作了。这对电力行业而言简直是颠覆性的存在,他们会一脸懵地问"什么?!"——是的,高压线直接接进去就能用。我认为这将是划时代的突破。太棒了,储能团队的工作出色。

1:14:52

Elon MuskServices and other are also looking good, so we’re actually now making money on the services and other stuff. So this is a kind of a big deal. And Tesla’s obviously way more than a car company. We do a lot of software Tesla. Roughly half, or a very huge percentage, of the engineering we do is actually software engineering. So Tesla is, I’d say, as much a software company as it is a hardware company. This is a very big deal because car companies are not software companies normally. So this matters a lot. Things like our auto bidder software for energy storage, all the software that controls the cars, the Megapacks, the Powerwalls, the solar, obviously for AI and Full-Self Driving are a big deal, insurance, services, and collisions. Tesla also writes a lot of software internally that helps, that we call the Tesla operating system internally, that is head and shoulders above what any other company has I think probably better than any Fortune 500 company. The Tesla internal software is it’s just way better. It’s just far more than what people normally think of as a car company. And Tesla is also the leader in real-world AI.服务和其他业务也表现不错,我们实际上已经开始在这块业务上盈利了,这是件大事。Tesla 显然远不止是一家汽车公司,我们在软件方面做了大量工作。大概有一半甚至更高比例的工程工作其实是软件工程。所以 Tesla 与其说是硬件公司,不如说同样是一家软件公司——这非常重要,因为传统车企通常不是软件公司。这很重要。比如我们为储能系统开发的 Auto Bidder 软件、控制汽车的所有软件、Megapack、Powerwall、太阳能的控制系统,当然还有 AI 和 Full Self-Driving,都是重磅产品,还有保险、服务和碰撞业务。Tesla 内部还开发了大量我们称之为"Tesla 操作系统"的内部软件,这套系统我认为远超业内任何公司,甚至可能是所有财富 500 强企业里最好的。Tesla 的内部软件就是强到没边,远超人们通常对一家汽车公司的想象。Tesla 同时也是现实世界 AI 的领导者。

1:16:33

Elon MuskSo there’s really… this is a big deal. Tesla is ahead of Google, Meta, anyone on real world software. Actually taking in video and making decisions based on video. No one can no one is even close. And it’s getting better, I say with each passing month, if not each passing week. It’s also worth noting that Tesla is actually pretty good at chip design. So the the AI inference chip that was designed by Tesla, that’s in cars, we had sort of our Hardware 3 AI inference, cars made over the past year have the Hardware 4. We’ve just completed design on Hardware 5, which we’re now calling AI 5, because it really is… There still actually is not a chip from Nvidia, and I have a lot respect for Nvidia, or from any company that we would prefer to put in our car, that is better than what we have in the car. We started from scratch in chip design, just as we started from scratch in AI software, and we have the best real-world AI software, and the best AI inference chip in the world from nothing. So this is a big deal. And the the capability of the chips in the car is dramatic. Right now, all the cars are actually training.这真的是件大事。Tesla 在现实世界软件方面领先 Google、Meta 以及所有人——真正实现摄取视频并基于视频做出决策。这方面没有任何人接近我们,而且它还在以每月甚至每周为单位持续变好。另外值得一提的是,Tesla 在芯片设计方面其实相当厉害。车里的 AI 推理芯片是 Tesla 自研的:过去几年交付的车辆搭载的是 Hardware 3,过去一年的车是 Hardware 4。我们刚刚完成了 Hardware 5 的设计,我们现在叫它 AI 5,因为它确实名副其实。说实话,目前 Nvidia 没有——我非常敬重 Nvidia——或者任何一家公司,拥有一款我们宁愿放进自己车里、且比我们现在用的更好的芯片。我们从零起步做芯片设计,就像从零起步做 AI 软件一样,而现在我们拥有全球最好的现实世界 AI 软件,以及全球最强的 AI 推理芯片——无中生有。这是件大事。车内芯片的算力是惊人的,而且现在所有的车其实都在做训练。

1:18:40

Elon MuskWe have Hardware 4 run Hardware 3 in emulation mode. So we’ll continue to make significant progress on Hardware 3, but later this year, we’ll actually bifurcate—continue working on Hardware 3, training on Hardware 3—but then do separate training on Hardware 4 that will be the sort of training cluster that we’re building at the south side of the Gigafactory. And that’ll be dedicated Hardware 4 video and inference. Hardware 4 has cameras that have about four or five times better resolution and, depending on how you count the sort of Hardware 4, it’s about anywhere from three to eight times better than Hardware 3. But everything you’re seeing thus far is just Hardware 3, and we still have a long way to go before we reach the limits of Hardware 3. So Hardware 3 I think will still do amazing things, but Hardware 4 I think will probably do about five times better. Then Hardware 5, which comes out in about 18 months or so, is 10 times more capable than Hardware 4. It’s like a, if you know Nvidia hardware, it’s sort of a B200-class computer. So what we’ll just progressively do is improve how many nines of reliability the car gets, and then of course that will go into Optimus as well, so the same chip will go into—Hardware 4 will go into, is in Optimus—Hardware, AI 5, which will be switching from Hardware 5 to AI 5, will be in Optimus and in all cars in about 18 months.我们让 Hardware 4 以模拟模式运行 Hardware 3,所以我们会在 Hardware 3 上继续取得重大进展,但今年晚些时候,我们实际上会进行分叉——继续在 Hardware 3 上训练——同时针对 Hardware 4 开启独立的训练,就在 Gigafactory 南侧正在建设的那个训练集群,专用于 Hardware 4 视频和推理训练。Hardware 4 搭载的摄像头分辨率大约是 Hardware 3 的四到五倍,综合来看 Hardware 4 比 Hardware 3 强大约三到八倍,取决于你怎么衡量。但你目前看到的一切都还是 Hardware 3 的成果,而我们距离 Hardware 3 的极限还有很长的路要走。所以 Hardware 3 我认为还会创造惊人的成绩,而 Hardware 4 大概能再提升五倍。然后是 Hardware 5,大约 18 个月后问世,比 Hardware 4 强 10 倍——用 Nvidia 的硬件来类比,大概相当于 B200 级别的算力。我们要做的就是逐步提升车辆可靠性的位数,然后当然这些也会进入 Optimus——Hardware 4 已经在 Optimus 里了——AI 5(我们会从 Hardware 5 切换到 AI 5 这个名字)将在大约 18 个月后进入 Optimus 和所有汽车。

1:20:38

Elon MuskAnd it’s really just a staggering amount of compute, and it’s very power efficient compute, because if you’re in a mobile application like a humanoid robot or a car, you can’t just be sucking down 10 kW, like you can in a data center. So you’ve got to be very power efficient. So Hardware 3 and 4 are only a few hundred watts. It’s hard. The Hardware 5 will be able to go probably up to about 700 or 800 watts, but it’ll power fluctuate contingent upon the complexity of the scene that it is in. So if it is in a parking lot stationary, you know, you don’t have to think very much. Just like a person, like if you’re in a complicated traffic scenario, you’ve got to think a lot more than if you’re just cruising along on an empty road.这是惊人的算力体量,同时还是极其高能效的算力——因为如果你在人形机器人或汽车这样的移动应用场景里,不能像数据中心那样随便就消耗 10kW 的电力,所以必须做到极高的能效。Hardware 3 和 Hardware 4 只有几百瓦。这很难做到。Hardware 5 大概最高能到 700 到 800 瓦,但它会根据所处场景的复杂程度动态调节功耗——就像一个人一样:如果你停在停车场不动,不需要想很多;但如果你处于复杂的交通状况,就得比空旷道路上巡航时多想很多。

1:22:11

Elon MuskBut something that I think is potentially interesting down the road is, like at some point the Tesla fleet I think will probably be over 100 million vehicles, and if each vehicle has a kilowatt of efficient inference compute, I think there’s a sort of an Amazon Web Services AWS-type opportunity. Because if you’ve got 100 million vehicles with a kilowatt of efficient inference compute, you’ve got 100 gigawatts of compute. Like 100 gigawatts of compute is a lot, and it’s distributed all over the world. So when the car is not in autonomous mode, which I think probably is, doing Robotaxi work maybe 50-60 hours a week, but about 100 hours a week, it’s not. It’s probably stationary. So there’s 100 hours of 100 gigawatts of inference compute, which I think we should use. Why not? You know, when people looked at Amazon, which started out obviously as an online bookseller, and it has grown to be like this incredible place where you can buy anything. And then Amazon Web Services, like they’ve got all these computers that only really see peak usage sometimes. But what are they going to do when it’s not peak usage? And sometimes Amazon servers are down like 10 percent. So that’s when they said, “Well, let’s do Amazon Web Services.” And then Amazon Web Services became more valuable than the entire rest of Amazon. Anyway, I think there’s there’s some kind of opportunity there, that’s pretty significant for Tesla down the road. Again, nobody’s really factoring that in, but I think that that actually will be quite significant.不过有件事我认为未来可能很有意思:某一天,Tesla 车队的规模可能会超过 1 亿辆,如果每辆车有 1 千瓦的高效推理算力,这其实有点像亚马逊 AWS 的机会。因为 1 亿辆车,每辆 1 千瓦高效推理算力,你就有了 100 吉瓦的算力,而且分布在全球各地。车辆在非自动驾驶模式下——我估计 Robotaxi 模式下每周大概运行 50 到 60 小时,但一周有约 100 小时是停着的——那 100 小时就有 100 吉瓦的推理算力可以使用。为什么不用呢?当年人们看亚马逊,它起家当然是在线书店,后来成长为一个可以买到一切的平台。而 Amazon Web Services,是因为亚马逊有大量服务器,只有高峰期才会满载,非高峰期大概有 10% 的服务器是闲置的——他们就想,"那我们搞 AWS 吧。"结果 AWS 的价值超过了整个亚马逊其余业务的总和。我觉得 Tesla 未来也有某种类似的机会,相当可观。而且现在没人把这一点纳入估值,但我认为这一块将会非常重要。

1:23:52

Elon MuskWe also are no longer compute constrained for training, and I check in with the team and it’s like “Is there anything we can do to improve the pace of progress with respect to training and inference?” And currently, that is not the limiting factor. In fact, the limiting factor right now is that the amount of miles between interventions is so long that it takes quite a while to figure out which version is better than the other version, because none of them are requiring any interventions. So it’s like, if you start getting to like thousands of miles between interventions or like 10,000 miles to get an intervention, then, the average person only drives about 10,000 miles in a year. And if it’s like in an urban environment, and the average speed is 20 miles an hour, I mean, our professional test drivers get pretty bored, frankly. They’re like, “Okay, I drove all week, and there was no intervention.” Like the highlight of the week would be like, “Yes, an intervention finally.” It’s like getting to that point. So this is where actually having a giant fleet is extremely important, because we can deploy a new FSD model and run it in Shadow Mode and see how well it performs. Compare how the human drives the car versus the new self-driving build, and then analyze that delta in Shadow Mode, like the shadow knows, or doesn’t know, just in case maybe, and then be able to assess by getting billions of miles very quickly with the giant fleet. That data engine is incredibly helpful. Like actually, it’s not possible to solve the self-driving problem without having millions of vehicles on the road. So that’s actually… it’s like figuring out clever ways to test how good the next FSD build is, is actually a limiting factor right now. And then of course, so we are building another training data center, right here, which will be dedicated to Hardware 4 training. So we’ll bifurcate Hardware 3 and Hardware 4 training later this year, we’ll keep improving Hardware 3, but we’re going to uncork the full capability of Hardware 4 as well. So yeah.我们目前也不再受训练算力的制约了。我会定期问团队:"在训练和推理方面,我们还能做什么来加快进步速度?"目前这不再是限制因素。事实上,现在的限制因素是:两次干预之间的里程数已经非常长了,以至于要分辨哪个版本更好得花很长时间,因为两个版本都不需要接管。如果干预间隔里程到了几千英里甚至一万英里,而普通人一年也就开一万英里——如果是在城市环境、平均时速 20 英里的话,坦率说我们的专业测试驾驶员已经相当无聊了。他们会说:"行,我开了一整周,没有任何接管。"这周的高光时刻可能是"终于接管了一次!"——就到这个程度了。这也正是为什么拥有一支庞大车队极其重要——我们可以发布一个新的 FSD 模型,让它在影子模式下运行,观察它的表现,对比人类驾驶和新自动驾驶版本之间的差异,在影子模式下分析这个差值——就像暗影知者,或者说也许不知者——然后借助庞大车队快速累积数十亿英里数据来评估新版本。这个数据引擎极其重要,没有数百万辆在路上的车,根本不可能解决自动驾驶问题。所以现在真正的限制因素,是如何聪明地测试下一个 FSD 版本的质量。当然,我们也在这里建设另一个训练数据中心,专用于 Hardware 4 的训练。今年晚些时候,我们会分叉 Hardware 3 和 Hardware 4 的训练,继续优化 Hardware 3,同时全力释放 Hardware 4 的完整能力。

1:26:32

Elon MuskBut I think most people here have tried out version 12. We did say Unsupervised Full Self-Driving would be version 12, so we are actually just keeping the version arbitrarily at 12, and then like pulling a 12.3, 12.4, 12.5. But it’s actually really like version 13, version 14. But anyway, it’s just an arbitrary designation. So 12.4 is actually like a whole different version than 12.3, and 12.5 is a whole different version 12.4. So, you’ll see a really giant improvements I think sometimes factor 10 improvements in between successive versions. And then, as I mentioned, the way it’ll work for the existing fleet is you’ll be able to add or subtract your car to the fleet as you’d like. And there will also be Tesla-owned cars, so it’ll be a combination of like, Uber plus Airbnb. But it’ll be pretty wild that there’ll be a software update and then the whole the whole fleet suddenly becomes accessible. It’s like suddenly you’ve got, I don’t know, 7 million, 10 million cars, ultimately tens of millions of cars, that can do autonomous driving, and instead of being used 10 hours a week, can be used 50 or 60 hours a week.不过我想在座大多数人都已经试过 version 12 了。我们当时说无监督完全自动驾驶会在 version 12 实现,所以我们实际上只是把版本号任性地维持在 12,然后拉出 12.3、12.4、12.5。但它其实相当于 version 13、version 14 了,只是一个任意的命名。所以 12.4 实际上跟 12.3 完全是两个不同的版本,12.5 也是全新版本。你们有时会看到两个相邻版本之间高达 10 倍的巨大提升。然后,正如我前面提到的,对于现有车队的运作模式,你可以随时把自己的车加入或退出车队,同时 Tesla 也会有自营车辆,整体是 Uber 加 Airbnb 的结合体。但会发生的事是相当疯狂的——一次软件更新,整个车队突然就可以使用了。突然间你有了 700 万、1000 万辆,最终数千万辆车,可以自动驾驶,使用频率从每周 10 小时一下子跳到 50 到 60 小时。

1:28:21

Elon MuskSo it’s pretty wild to just be in Palo Alto with a bunch of cubes and then a humanoid robot just walks past. We’ve made a massive amount of progress with Optimus in a short period of time, from someone pretending to be a robot dancing in a suit, to a pretty hodgepodge robot, to a robot that is actually doing useful tasks in the factory today. So we have two Opimus robots in our Fremont factory that are doing basically this task, which is take taking cells off the line and placing them in a shipping container. We actually have quite a few of these cruising around our offices in Palo Alto. And I think we’ve got one major hardware revision, which should be done by end of this year or early next. And then we’ll move into a limited production next year of Optimus—limited production for use in our factories where we’ll test out the product, kind of, as I say, sort of eat our own dog food or whatever, the electronic equipment, that is. But I think like next year, my prediction is next year we’ll have over over 1,000, maybe a few thousand, Optimus robots working at Tesla. And things are going to scale up very rapidly from there. So we’ll iron out the bugs. The degree of autonomy will be radically better. You’ll just literally be able to talk to it and say “Please do this task,” or “I’m going to show you something, now do that the thing that I’m showing you.” And it’ll get to the point where it can watch a video of something, like a person, and then learn just by looking at that video and do that task. So yeah.在 Palo Alto 的办公室里,一堆格子间旁边突然有一台人形机器人走过,这场景真的挺奇幻的。我们在 Optimus 上取得了大量的进展,而且是在很短的时间内实现的——从一个穿着机器人服装假装是机器人的人跳舞,到一台东拼西凑的机器人原型,再到一台今天真正在工厂里执行实际任务的机器人。我们有两台 Optimus 机器人在 Fremont 工厂工作,基本上就是执行这个任务:把电芯从生产线上取下来,放入货运集装箱。我们 Palo Alto 办公室里其实有相当多这样的机器人在转悠。我认为我们还有一次重大的硬件升级迭代,今年年底或明年年初应该完成。然后明年将进入 Optimus 的小批量生产阶段——先在我们自己的工厂里使用,测试产品,所谓"自家狗粮先自己吃",说的是电子设备那个意思啦。但我的预测是,明年 Optimus 在 Tesla 工厂里运作的数量将超过 1,000 台,也许是几千台,之后的规模化速度会非常快。我们会不断打磨问题,自主程度将大幅提升。你将能直接和它说话:"请帮我做这个任务",或者"我演示给你看,现在照着做"。它将能达到这样的状态:看一段视频,像人一样学习,光靠看就能掌握,然后去执行。

1:30:40

Elon MuskSo really it’s gonna be quite something. And I’m confident of the prediction that there will be more… like the ratio of humanoid robots to humans will be greater than one to one. So there’ll be more than 10 billion humanoid robots in the world, probably 20 or more, and Tesla’s gonna be by far the leader in that. You’re seeing a lot of robot startups. But I think it’s actually very challenging to do Optimus as a robot startup. Because what we’ve found, to make Optimus work we’ve had to design from first principles, from scratch, every part of the robot. So the motors, the gearbox, the sensors, the power electronics, the communication system, everything had to be done from scratch. We found that there’s basically nothing, there’s no supply chain. So even though there are many electric motors made in the world, there’s no supply chain for the types of motors and sensors and gearboxes that are needed for a humanoid robot. What you’re seeing here is our current generation, a hand and arm which has 11 degrees of freedom, our next generation has 22 degrees of freedom.真的会相当了不起。我有信心预测,未来人形机器人与人类的比例将超过一比一,世界上将会有超过 100 亿台人形机器人,可能是 200 亿台甚至更多,而 Tesla 将在这一领域远远领先。你们能看到很多机器人创业公司冒出来,但我认为以机器人创业公司的身份做 Optimus,其实非常有挑战性。因为我们发现,要让 Optimus 跑起来,必须从第一性原理出发、从零开始设计机器人的每一个部件:电机、齿轮箱、传感器、电力电子、通信系统,全部要从头来。我们发现基本上不存在供应链——尽管世界上有大量电机在生产,但人形机器人所需的那种类型的电机、传感器和齿轮箱,根本没有对应的供应链。你们看到的是我们现代版本的手臂,有 11 个自由度,下一代将达到 22 个自由度。

1:32:33

Elon MuskIt will be able to play the piano. So it’s really like “Wow.” Now of course, like I said, we need to make sure you don’t have the Terminator scenario. That’s very important. So safety of the humanoid robot will be very important. But because it requires so much ground-up design, designing every motor, gearbox, sensor, power electronics, from scratch, it’s very hard for a startup to, if not impossible, for a startup to replicate that. But at Tesla, we have the world’s best electrical engineering. I think we’ve got the world’s best mechanical engineering for for gearboxes and for electric motors, power electronics. So we have the resources to do that and it applies quite well.它将能够弹钢琴。真的,太惊艳了。当然,正如我说的,我们必须确保不出现终结者的场景,这非常重要。人形机器人的安全性将是重中之重。但正因为它需要如此大量的从头设计工作——每一个电机、齿轮箱、传感器、电力电子都要从零开始——对于一家创业公司来说,要复制这一切极其困难,甚至不可能。而 Tesla 拥有全球顶尖的电气工程能力,我认为我们在齿轮箱、电机和电力电子方面也有全球最强的机械工程能力。所以我们有资源去做这件事,而且跨域迁移效果非常好。

1:32:55

Elon MuskAnd then you also have to have the brain. You need a power-efficient inference computer, which we’ve got for the car and we’ll be using in Optimus. You need the best in real-world AI, and Tesla has the best in real-world AI. So you need all of these. You need a very strong hand of cards in order to make a compelling robot. And then you also need to be very good at scale manufacturing. So in order to have the robot not cost like hundreds of thousands of dollars, in order to make it cost like $10,000 or $20,000, you actually need to design for manufacturing and be very good at manufacturing. In my experience, prototypes are easy compared to volume manufacturing. Prototypes are easy, production is hard, relatively speaking. Tesla has the production capability, it has the engineering capability, and it has the AI, hardware, and software capability. Even the most optimistic estimates that I’ve seen for Optimus, the Optimus optimist, I think underaccount the magnitude of of what the robot will be able to do.你还需要有"大脑"。你需要高能效的推理芯片——我们已经有了,车里就在用,Optimus 也会用同一颗芯片。你需要全球最好的现实世界 AI——Tesla 拥有。所以你需要集齐这所有的条件,手里要有一副足够强的牌,才能做出一款有竞争力的机器人。另外,你还需要具备大规模制造的能力——想让机器人的成本不是几十万美元,而是做到 10,000 或 20,000 美元,你必须以制造为导向来设计,并且真的擅长制造。依我的经验,原型很容易,量产才是难题,这是相对而言的。Tesla 有量产能力,有工程能力,有 AI 的软硬件能力。我见过的那些对 Optimus 最乐观的估计——也就是"Optimus 乐观派"——我认为他们都大大低估了这台机器人将能做到的事情的量级。

1:34:47

Elon MuskYou know, as I said at the beginning of the presentation, I agree with the Ark Invest analysis that autonomous transport is called sort of a $5 to $7 trillion market cap situation. Optimus I think is a $25… literally a $25 trillion market cap situation. Now, I don’t want to trivialize what’s necessary to get there. I mean, it’s an immense amount of work that is required to get there, like super difficult. But we are moving very fast down that road, and we’re gonna make it happen. So, thank you. I guess with that, we can go to Q&A. Oh, I guess we’ve got mics lined up. Dive for the mic.正如我在演讲开头提到的,我认同 Ark Invest 的分析——自动驾驶运输大约是一个 5 到 7 万亿美元市值的机遇。Optimus 我认为是……字面意义上,一个 25 万亿美元市值的机遇。我不想淡化实现这一目标所需付出的努力——需要的工作量是难以想象的,极其艰难。但我们正在以很快的速度向那个方向前进,我们会让它成真。好,谢谢大家。我想我们现在可以进入问答环节了。哦,我看到麦克风已经排好队了,冲啊。

1:35:44

Unknown ShareholderHey Elon. Last year, I thank you for making the world a better place for my son to live in, and I wasn’t clear. In particular, I was referring to what you’ve done for the First Amendment and our rights.嘿,Elon。去年我感谢了你为让我儿子生活的世界变得更美好所做的一切,但我说得不够清楚——我特别指的是你为第一修正案和我们的权利所做的事情。

1:36:18

Elon MuskThank you.谢谢。

1:36:26

Unknown ShareholderHistory will not forget it, and the sacrifices you made, and the risks you took will pay off and have paid off.历史不会忘记,你所做的牺牲和承担的风险都是值得的,而且已经有了回报。

1:36:32

Elon MuskThank you. Well I very much appreciate that. You have to say like, “Why was the First Amendment so important?” You know, because people came here from places where if they spoke their mind, they’d be put in prison, or killed, or just shut out from society, ostracized. And so freedom speech is absolutely fundamental to a good future. And yeah, that’s the reason for, you know, acquiring a Twitter and just making it a free speech platform. I think it’s like, very important to just the future of civilization. So, thank you.谢谢,我真的非常感激。你不得不想想,"为什么第一修正案如此重要?"因为人们来自那些地方——在那里如果你说出心里话,你会被投进监狱,或者被杀,或者被社会排斥、被孤立。所以言论自由对于美好的未来绝对是根本性的。这正是收购 Twitter 并把它变成一个言论自由平台的原因。我认为这对于文明的未来非常重要。谢谢你。

1:37:25

RonnieHey Elon, my name is Ronnie. I’m on your right side. How’s it going? Hey. I work for Tesla sales in Orland Park, Illinois, and I was always wondering, do you think Tesla could ever move forward towards bundling software as like a package to, possibly increase take rate for FSD? You know, maybe bundle it with premium connectivity and future software options?嘿 Elon,我叫 Ronnie,在你的右边。怎么样?嘿。我在伊利诺伊州 Orland Park 的 Tesla 销售团队工作,我一直在想,Tesla 有没有可能推出软件捆绑套餐,来提高 FSD 的购买转化率?比如把 FSD 和高级连接功能以及未来的软件选项捆绑在一起?

1:37:33

Elon MuskI think we definitely want to encourage people to try FSD, and one of the things that I think probably makes sense, is that when we have a significant improvement, every time we have a significant improvement in FSD, give your customers a like, two-week free trial. So like, “Hey, we’ve made an improvement to FSD, try it for another two weeks.” With 12.4, we finally get rid of the steering wheel nag which I know was driving people crazy. Like, thank heaven for small mercies. Even just something like that, not having the steering wheel nag, and obviously having a far lower intervention count, like far more miles between interventions. So I think we’ll keep, sort of offering people free trials of FSD every time we make a significant improvement. I’m sorry, yeah. When you hear the loud speakers, ears don’t work.我认为我们肯定希望鼓励大家去尝试 FSD,有一件事我觉得可能很有道理——每次 FSD 有重大改进的时候,给你们的客户提供大约两周的免费试用。就像说"嘿,FSD 升级了,再试两个星期吧。"12.4 版本上,我们终于取消了方向盘提示震动,我知道这把大家烦坏了——这真是小恩小惠但感天动地的事。光是这一点,不再有方向盘提示,再加上干预次数大幅减少、两次接管之间的里程大幅提升,我觉得我们会持续每次有重大改进时提供 FSD 免费试用。抱歉,是的。扩音器太响了,耳朵快不好使了。

1:39:07

Justin (Bearded Tesla Guy)Good afternoon. Two questions, actually. First, after $56 billion, you can afford to probably take your kids to Disneyland now. Is that where you’re going?下午好。我有两个问题,第一个:有了那 560 亿美元之后,你现在应该可以带孩子去迪士尼乐园了吧?你是要去那里吗?

1:39:22

Elon MuskWell, and by the way, it is worth emphasizing that it’s Tesla stock that I have to own for five years, so you know, it’s not possible to like, it’s not actually cash and I can’t cut and run, nor would I want to. But I’ve actually been to Disneyland, Disneyworld many times with the kids. It’s a little tough for me to go these days without causing a ruckus. Maybe I should just like, wear a Mickey Mouse outfit and just go and pretend I’m like one of the people in the park.嗯,顺便说一下,值得强调的是,这是我必须持有五年的 Tesla 股票,所以这实际上不是现金,我没办法直接套现走人,也不会想这么做。其实我带孩子去过很多次 Disneyland 和 Disneyworld。现在对我来说有点难,去那里容易引起骚动。也许我应该套个米老鼠的服装,假装自己是公园里的工作人员,混进去。

1:39:33

Justin (Bearded Tesla Guy)So as we work on autonomy, and we’re getting to that threshold where things are getting to seriously advanced level, eventually there are going to be some harsh consequences. Part of breaking through, right? And I’m just curious where your mind is at on that, and have you thought about, some of those early consequences that we’re unfortunately going to have to have, in order to have a better, safer future. I’m just wondering.好的,那在我们推进自动驾驶、逐渐接近那个真正高度先进的节点时,某些时候难免会出现一些严峻的后果——这是突破的一部分,对吧?我就是想知道你怎么看这件事,你有没有想过,为了迎来一个更美好、更安全的未来,我们不可避免地要承受哪些早期的代价?我只是想了解一下。

1:40:28

Elon MuskYou mean like scary robots, or what?你是说机器人闹事这种情况,还是别的什么?

1:40:31

Justin (Bearded Tesla Guy)No, no, in the cars with Full Self-Driving.不不不,是 Full Self-Driving 汽车方面。

1:40:36

Elon MuskOkay.好的。

1:40:36

Justin (Bearded Tesla Guy)Like, we’ve seen some companies that there’s been some unfortunate mishaps, and they’ve just straight up closed shop and, you know, I know that’s not the plan, but those are real consequences of developing this technology, and I’m just wondering where your mind is at on that.就像,我们看过一些公司出现了一些不幸的事故,然后直接关门倒闭了。我知道这不是你们的计划,但开发这项技术确实有这样真实的后果,我只是想了解一下你对这件事的看法。

1:40:54

Elon MuskYeah, well, we are we do try to be very careful with the deployment of FSD. And we do have a lot of cars so like, inevitably, when there are a lot of cars and you’ve got billions of miles, you do have the law of large numbers, where “Okay, there’s a small chance of something bad happening.” But when you look at the sort of safety-per-mile, because we’ve got a lot of miles, it’s very clear that the safety-per-mile is better than human driving. So, we can show that to regulators and obviously make our case of the public and say like, “Actually, human driving is not perfect.” There’s a person killed roughly every 80 million miles. So I think like 35,000 to 40,000 people are killed every year in the U.S. from auto accidents. What matters is, “Are we making that number smaller?” And as long as we’re making that number smaller, we’re doing the right thing.是的,我们在部署 FSD 的时候确实非常谨慎。我们有很多辆车,所以当车辆数量很多、行驶里程达到数十亿英里的时候,大数定律就会发挥作用——"好,某件坏事发生的概率虽然很小。"但如果你看每英里安全性,因为我们的里程很多,可以非常清楚地看到每英里安全性优于人类驾驶。所以我们可以向监管机构展示这些数据,也可以向公众表明我们的立场,说"其实人类驾驶并不完美。"大约每 8000 万英里就有一人死亡。我想每年在美国有大约 35,000 到 40,000 人死于交通事故。关键在于:"我们有没有让这个数字变小?"只要我们在让这个数字变小,我们就是在做正确的事情。

1:41:31

Bikash (?)Hey Elon, this is Bikash (?), I have one question.嘿 Elon,我是 Bikash,我有一个问题。

1:41:39

Elon MuskSure. Sorry I…当然,抱歉我……

1:41:41

Bikash (?)So we know that, we love you all from our bottom of the heart. We love you so much, Elon.我们从心底里爱你们所有人。我们太爱你了,Elon。

1:42:08

Elon MuskThank you, love you too.谢谢,我也爱你们。

1:42:11

Bikash (?)My question is like, we all know Tesla will be the most valuable company in the world one day. We just want to know if you have any prediction when and what is the inflection point.. when we can say this is the inflection point. Is it solving the FSD, or is it like Optimus on-ground will be that point, from your perspective?我的问题是,我们都知道 Tesla 总有一天会成为世界上最有价值的公司。我们只是想知道你有没有预测,是什么时候,以及那个拐点在哪里——什么时候我们可以说这就是拐点?是解决 FSD 的那一刻,还是 Optimus 正式落地的那一刻,从你的角度来看?

1:42:33

Elon MuskWell, as I mentioned before, I think it’s worth looking at the the Ark Invest analysis. I think that is the most accurate analysis. Their prediction is, I think $5 to $7 trillion by 2029 market cap. So more than 10 times what things are today, in five years. I think that is accurate.嗯,正如我之前提到的,我觉得很值得参考 Ark Invest 的分析。我认为那是目前最准确的分析。他们的预测是,我记得到 2029 年市值大约会达到 5 到 7 万亿美元。也就是五年内超过现在的 10 倍以上。我认为这个预测是准确的。

1:43:01

Bikash (?)Thank you.谢谢。

1:43:04

Unknown ShareholderHey, Elon, a huge fan and I think history will show that you’ve had a profound impact on humanity. So I think that’s just given. Just a couple questions, I guess. I’ve fixed my Tesla addiction by putting cars on Turo and I found that about half my renters, it’s the first time they’re driving a Tesla, and then the other half really want to buy one after they’ve tried it out. So I guess a couple questions. When could we expect maybe the referral program to come back if it would come back? And could we also get a passenger van, like a 12-passenger van sometime soonish.嘿 Elon,我是你的超级粉丝,我觉得历史会证明你对人类产生了深远的影响,这一点毋庸置疑。我就问几个问题吧。我通过把车放在 Turo 上治好了我的 Tesla 上瘾症,我发现大约一半的租车人是第一次开 Tesla,另一半在试驾之后非常想买一辆。所以我想问两个问题:推荐计划什么时候能回归,如果会回归的话?另外,能不能做一款客货两用厢式车,比如 12 座的面包车,什么时候能有?

1:43:17

Elon MuskI’ll add that to my list. So the referral program… Yeah. I think we’ll re-examine the referral program probably next quarter. It is very important to sort of look at the, what is the fully considered cost of a Tesla? So, with the referral program, it effectively increases the price of the car. So, you know, is the price increase… What is better for the end customer: a slight price increase because the referral program, or not? But we’ll re-examine that I think in, next quarter and see if it makes sense. I think some kind of referral program does make sense. But I think for a lot of people, like by far the biggest thing we see is that people just can’t afford the car. That’s the biggest thing. Like, that’s the limiter on demand. You can imagine in the limit, if there was say like if Model Y cost like less than $20,000, it would probably sell like, probably 5 million units. It’d be insane. Now that’s not feasible, you know, today, but I think working on figuring out ways to make more affordable vehicles is really the game changer. For most people, it is really not a question of whether they want a Tesla—they do want a Tesla—they simply do not have enough money to afford one. So we have to make it affordable. That’s essential. Thank you.我把这个加进待办清单。关于推荐计划……是的。我想我们大概下个季度会重新审视一下推荐计划。有一件非常重要的事情,就是要全面考量一辆 Tesla 的实际成本。推荐计划会有效地提高汽车的价格。所以,价格上涨……对终端客户来说,究竟是因为推荐计划而略微涨价更好,还是不涨更好?但我们下个季度会重新评估,看看是否有意义。我觉得某种形式的推荐计划是有意义的。但我认为对很多人来说,迄今为止我们看到的最大障碍是人们根本买不起这辆车。这才是最关键的问题,这才是制约需求的瓶颈。你可以想象,极限情况下,如果 Model Y 能卖到不到 $20,000,它可能会卖出大约 500 万辆,那会是疯狂的量级。当然,这在今天不现实,但我认为研究如何打造更实惠的车型才是真正改变游戏规则的事情。对大多数人来说,问题根本不是他们想不想要 Tesla——他们当然想要——只是他们没有足够的钱买。所以我们必须让它变得买得起,这是必须做到的事情。谢谢。

1:45:11

HamzaHey Elon, I just wanted to introduce myself. My name is Hamza. First of all, thank you for introducing me to Anuarbek, he and I are now close, thanks to you. And I moved to Austin, thanks to you. My question is basically for FSD transfer: I think that should be something that should be ongoing. I think not only on the benefit of you for getting more people on the fleet and getting statistics and info, but also as Tesla owners, it makes us want to get the next model and transfer over. For instance, the thing that’s been holding me back is wanting to wait for the FSD transfer again. So is there a reason why you haven’t implemented that for like ongoing time?嘿 Elon,我来自我介绍一下,我叫 Hamza。首先感谢你把我介绍给 Anuarbek,我们现在关系很好,都是托你的福。我也因为你搬到了 Austin。我的问题主要是关于 FSD 转移的:我认为这应该是一个持续性的功能。我觉得这不仅对你有利,可以让更多人加入车队、收集数据和信息,对我们 Tesla 车主来说,也能让我们更愿意购买下一款车型并把 FSD 转移过去。比如,一直让我犹豫不决的原因就是想等 FSD 再次可以转移。所以,你们是否有什么原因没有把这个功能做成持续开放的?

1:46:12

Elon MuskIt is pretty complex for us to do this. It sort of adds a fair bit of complexity to the sales process, but yeah. And it is tough, because we’ve got to earn revenue somehow, so… You know, transfer is tough.这对我们来说操作起来确实相当复杂,会给销售流程增加不少麻烦,但是……而且这也很棘手,因为我们必须得有收入来源,所以……你知道,转移这件事很难做。

1:46:33

Shareholder“One more quarter!”「再一个季度!」

1:46:38

Elon MuskSorry? One more quarter? Okay, one more quarter. Alright, you got it—one more quarter. Alright.什么?再一个季度?好,再一个季度。好的,你拿到了——再一个季度。好的。

1:47:00

Unknown ShareholderElon thank you for hosting us. If you can see me I’m trembling uncontrollably. I really look up to you. Shareholder, consumer, tripled my humble, tiny little portion of your shares the last two days, just being engaged, knowing we were coming here. And appreciate you hosting shareholders, and it means so much to us.Elon,感谢你接待我们。如果你能看到我,我现在激动得浑身颤抖。我真的非常仰慕你。我是股东,也是消费者,在过去两天里,就在知道我们要来这里的兴奋劲儿下,我把自己手里那一点点谦虚的小仓位翻了三倍。感谢你接待股东,这对我们来说意义重大。

1:47:03

Elon MuskYou’re welcome.不客气。

1:47:21

Unknown ShareholderYou’re an absolute idol. This question comes because I care about you as a human being, but in the context of being a shareholder, unlocking these values of Optimus, we need you. And just with all the global uncertainty, you’re so high-profile, I just want to make sure you’re doing everything to take care of yourself, safety, and health for the future of the company. I say that because I care about you as a person, but since this is a shareholder meeting in the spirit of shareholder value.你是我绝对的偶像。这个问题是出于我作为一个人对你的关心,但同时也在股东身份的背景下——为了释放 Optimus 的价值,我们需要你。在全球局势如此不确定的今天,你的知名度这么高,我只是想确保你在尽一切努力照顾好自己的安全与健康,为公司的未来着想。我说这些是因为我真的关心你这个人,但同时也是出于这是股东大会、从股东价值的角度出发。

1:47:59

Elon MuskWell, thank you I appreciate the kind sentiments. Yeah, I think I probably need to like work out. And like, not get assassinated or something, you know. I mean, it is getting a little crazy these days. Like to first approximation, the probability that a homicidal maniac will try to kill you is proportionate to how many homicidal maniacs hear your name. Okay. They hear my name a lot, so I’m like, “Okay, I’m on the list,” you know. Yeah, so we actually did have two homicidal maniacs in the last roughly seven months come to aspirationally try to kill me, and a bunch of other people. So it’s not just me. And then there wasn’t like an actual issue that they articulated, they were just in the homicidal maniac career, so I do need to be kind of careful. Which is not great because it like forces me to be a bit more sort of standoffish. So now, I’ve stopped signing things because that’d be a sure way to like, homicidal maniac, I’ll just have him sign something and then shoot him, that type of thing. So I have to be like more standoffish and stuff. Which I prefer not to be, but it seems wise. Like John Lennon, who was like singing about like, “Hey, can’t we all just be nice to each other?” And then he got shot, by one of his fans. And you’re like, “Okay.” We’re trying to avoid that. So, anyway, I appreciate the kind sentiments. I will endeavor to stay alive and keep…嗯,谢谢,我很感激你的好意。是的,我大概确实需要多锻炼。还有就是,别被暗杀什么的,你知道。我是说,这年头确实有点疯狂。从第一近似来看,一个杀人狂尝试杀你的概率,与听到过你名字的杀人狂数量成正比。我的名字被太多人听到了,所以我就觉得"好吧,我肯定在名单上",你知道。是的,过去大约七个月里,确实有两个杀人狂怀抱着杀死我的愿望出现了,还有一堆其他人。所以不只是针对我。他们并没有提出任何具体的诉求,就只是走上了"职业杀手"这条路,所以我确实需要小心一点。这很不好受,因为这会迫使我变得有点疏远。比如,我现在已经不再给别人签名了,因为那简直是在邀请灾难——杀人狂可以让我签个名,然后在旁边一枪把我崩了,就是这种事。所以我不得不变得更疏远,更戒备。这不是我喜欢的方式,但看起来确实是明智之举。就像 John Lennon,他唱着"嘿,我们能不能对彼此好一点?",然后被他的一个粉丝开枪打死了。你只能说:"好吧。"我们在努力避免这种情况。所以,无论如何,我很感激你的好意。我会努力活下去,继续……

1:49:39

Unknown ShareholderHi, Elon. I was reading an article the other day: does Tesla still have somewhere in the product timeline a home HVAC system in the works.嘿 Elon。前几天我看到一篇文章:Tesla 的产品路线图上现在还有家用 HVAC 系统吗?

1:50:14

Elon MuskA home interact system. We do not have a home interact system that I’m aware of. No, no, we do not one.家用互动系统。我目前不知道我们有家用互动系统。不,不,我们没有。

1:50:21

Unknown ShareholderHVAC system.HVAC 系统。

1:50:21

Elon MuskOh, HVAC system. Yeah yeah, sure. Yeah, in the list of things that would be like more useful than… like it would be nice to do would be a great HVAC system that is very power-efficient and you know has like a built-in HEPA filter, and like take a lot of things that we’ve learned in the car and apply that to home HVAC. Because actually, maybe there is a great home HVAC system out there, but I haven’t found it, which is pretty wild. And just building in the filtration system and being able to sort of maybe also control humidity somewhat, and like I said, be super efficient and quiet, which are all things that we do in the car. That would be a pretty sweet thing to do. Maybe we can combine that with the Powerwall or something. On the list of things to do, that is not super high, but it would be it would be cool to do that one day.哦,HVAC 系统。对对对。是的,在一堆可能比……就是如果真的要做,做一个超棒的 HVAC 系统会很不错,非常高效能、内置 HEPA 过滤器,把我们在汽车上学到的很多东西应用到家用 HVAC 上。因为说实话,市面上也许有很好的家用 HVAC 系统,但我没有找到,这相当疯狂。就是把过滤系统内置进去,还能在一定程度上控制湿度,就像我说的,超级高效、超级安静——这些都是我们在汽车上已经做到的事情。把这些用到家用 HVAC 上会是个很棒的产品。也许我们还能把它和 Powerwall 结合起来。在待办清单上,这个不是特别高优先级,但有朝一日做这个会很酷。

1:51:27

Sandeep (?)Hi Elon, this is Sandeep (?). I just want to thank you for making the Cybertruck.嗨 Elon,我是 Sandeep。我只是想感谢你做出了 Cybertruck。

1:51:31

Elon MuskYou’re welcome.不客气。

1:51:37

Sandeep (?)Yeah, kids love it. Really. My four and six year old, they love it.是的,孩子们超爱它。真的。我的四岁和六岁的孩子,他们都爱死它了。

1:51:37

Elon MuskExactly. That’s what I was saying kids, it’s like amazing.就是嘛。这正是我说的,孩子们就是觉得这东西太酷了。

1:51:39

Sandeep (?)I went to Disney last week. Nobody looks at Disney, everybody looks at Cybertruck. And there’s a funny story if you may allow. So we were preparing my daughter. We went to Destin and then from there we were driving to Disney and then we were preparing my daughter—she’s four years—to just get used to lines, and you know, you have to have a lot of patience to get in the line. And she’s like, “Dada, why don’t we just say ‘we’ll show you our Cybertruck and then we will cut the lines.’” I mean, she got used to it because we were trying Superchargers and then everybody was coming over taking pictures.我上周去了迪士尼。没人看迪士尼,大家都看 Cybertruck。还有个有趣的故事,如果你允许的话。我们在准备带我女儿——她四岁——去适应排队,你知道,去迪士尼要有耐心排长队。她就说:"爸爸,我们为什么不直接说'让我们看看我们的 Cybertruck,然后我们就可以插队'呢。"我是说,她已经习惯了,因为我们在 Supercharger 充电的时候,大家都跑过来拍照。

1:52:17

Elon MuskSure.当然。

1:52:17

Sandeep (?)It’s a funny story, you know. Yeah. And then I have a request. Would you allow a six-year-old to tour the factory, maybe someday in the future? Right now, it’s capped at 12 years. Even though we have referral rewards, it’s capped at 12 years. Would you allow the kids to tour to the factory? Maybe they can see the robots? Maybe you can make it an event or something like that?挺有趣的故事,是吧。对。然后我还有个请求。能不能允许六岁的孩子参观工厂,也许是在未来某一天?现在的限制是 12 岁以上。即使有推荐奖励,也限制在 12 岁。你能不能允许孩子们参观工厂?也许他们可以看看机器人?也许你能做成一个活动之类的?

1:52:39

Elon MuskYeah, sure. Yeah maybe we can have like a… I’m always worried kids’ safety and stuff. In case a kid like, goes running off into like, the robot cell or something. But yeah, we could I think lower the… maybe have like a more limited tour that enables younger kids to go. Sure, we’ll do that.可以,当然。也许我们可以搞一个……我一直担心孩子们的安全问题,万一哪个孩子跑进机器人工作区什么的。但是可以,我想我们可以把年龄限制降低……也许推出一个更有限制的参观路线,让更小的孩子也能参加。当然,我们会做这件事。

1:53:04

Unknown ShareholderDonald Trump has been a big critic of electric vehicles. But last week, he surprised us by saying he’s a big fan of Tesla, and a big fan of you. What did you tell him?Donald Trump 一直是电动汽车的强烈批评者。但上周他出人意料地说他是 Tesla 的大粉丝,也是你的大粉丝。你跟他说了什么?

1:53:04

Elon MuskWell, you know, I can be persuasive. So yeah. Actually, I don’t exactly know why he… that’s a good question. I mean, I have had some conversations with him and he does call me out of the blue, for no reason. I don’t know why, but he does. And it’s like, he’s very nice when he calls. And you know, I was like, “You know, electric cars, I think are pretty good for the future. America’s the leader in electric cars, you know. Buy America and stuff.” Oh, and I think he actually, a lot of his friends now have Teslas and they all love it, and he’s a huge fan of the Cybertruck. So, I think those may be contributing factors.嗯,你知道,我还是挺有说服力的。所以是的。其实,我也不完全知道他为什么……这是个好问题。我确实和他有过一些交流,他会无缘无故地给我打电话,莫名其妙地打。我不知道为什么,但他确实这样做。他打来的时候态度非常好。我就说:"你知道,电动汽车,我觉得对未来很有好处。美国是电动汽车领域的领导者,购买美国货之类的。"哦,而且我觉得他身边现在很多朋友都有 Tesla,他们都超爱,他也是 Cybertruck 的大粉丝。所以我觉得这些都是促成因素。

1:54:20

KeanuHey Elon, on your right. Yeah, my name is Keanu, longtime fan of your like, brand and company and everything. I’m wondering when you take the driver out of the seat for the driverless car, how do you plan to handle interventions, which I’m sure will happen at some rate, even if they’re rare?嘿 Elon,在你右边。是的,我叫 Keanu,长期关注你的品牌和公司。我想问的是,当你把驾驶员从座位上移除实现无人驾驶之后,你打算如何处理人工接管的情况——我知道这种概率会很低,但肯定还是会发生?

1:54:41

Elon MuskYeah, so there’s, I mean, clearly we want to make sure that if there’s no driver in the car, the probability of a severe intervention is extremely low. We we want to make sure that the car is extremely cautious around vulnerable road users like cyclists or pedestrians. So really, we’d want the, the probability of hurting a pedestrian or cyclist to be incredibly low, like, way lower than someone driving a car. Now, then there are interventions that happen where the car is simply like, I don’t know, it gets stuck down a one-way street, where like crazy construction situation that, in which case it’ll basically phone home and say “Help, I’m stuck.” And then I think we can probably solve a lot of these things just by you know, remoting into the car and kind of like staring at like a giant RC car. That’s what I’m guessing. That’s what I think we’ll do.是的,我是说,显然我们要确保当车里没有驾驶员的时候,需要严重干预的概率极低。我们要确保汽车在行人、骑自行车的人这类易受伤害的道路使用者面前极度谨慎。所以,我们真的希望伤害行人或骑自行车者的概率低到难以置信,远低于人类开车的水平。然后,还有一种干预情况就是车子简单地,比如说,不知怎的被困在一条单行道上,或者遇到疯狂的施工现场,这种情况下它基本上会"打电话回家"说"救我,我被困住了。"我想我们可能可以解决很多这类问题,就是远程进入车辆,就像远控一辆超大 RC 遥控车一样。这是我的猜测,这就是我认为我们会做的事情。

1:55:26

AnuarbekHey Elon, Anuarbek from Kazakhstan. Thanks for installing Superchargers I just want to acknowledge Tesla Boomer Mama and Sawyer Merritt for all the efforts they did to organize the… There’s an after party, to celebrate, at Lustre Pearl East if you guys want to come and celebrate all the efforts for the community. Congratulations Elon. Thank you.嘿 Elon,我是来自哈萨克斯坦的 Anuarbek。感谢你安装了 Superchargers。我还想感谢 Tesla Boomer Mama 和 Sawyer Merritt 为组织这次活动所做的一切努力……还有一个庆祝派对,在 Lustre Pearl East,如果大家想来的话,一起来庆祝社区的努力。恭喜 Elon。谢谢。

1:56:29

ShareholderThaks for hosting today, Elon. It’s about four years since you did battery day and throughout those very ambitious targets of getting to a Terawatt-hour of batteries, and earlier in your presentation you alluded to the great difficulty of scaling up this new technology. I think as shareholders we’re most interested… can you tell us a little bit more, because in terms of affordability, which you also mentioned as this huge burden, these 4680s get manufacturing credits and also on the consumer side, get large credits as well. If you could scale that so that we could produce full level of Cybertrucks and also start to put them back in the Y and the 3, potentially, it would greatly improve affordability and be great in terms of scale.感谢你今天的接待,Elon。距离你们的电池日已经大约四年了,当时提出了很宏伟的目标——达到 1 太瓦时(Terawatt-hour)的电池产能,而你今天演讲中也提到了扩大这种新技术规模的巨大困难。我认为作为股东,我们最关注的是……你能多说说吗?因为在负担能力方面——这也是你提到的一大瓶颈——4680 电池既能在制造端拿到税收抵免,在消费端也有大量补贴。如果能把这个规模扩大,既能全力满足 Cybertruck 产量,又能把 4680 放回 Model Y 和 Model 3,这将大大提升产品的可负担性,对规模化也大有裨益。

1:57:13

Elon MuskSure. So achieving affordability is actually at this point more about the rest of the car than it is actually about the battery pack. So, like the price per kWh of cells from suppliers has dropped dramatically. So there was a massive spike for a few years in the cost of of lithium-ion cells from suppliers, because every car manufacturer put in gigantic orders for battery packs, like giant, giant orders. So the price of like, of lithium and like all the raw materials and the battery cells went crazy. It doubled. The price of sales doubled. The price of lithium I think went up at almost like five-fold, or like 500 percent like went up crazy numbers. So since then, suppliers, battery cell suppliers have increased their supply, and the orders from other car manufacturers have declined. So, I mean, it is worth noting that it’s tough sledding out there for EVs. You know, GM announced I think a 50-percent reduction in recently in their EVs. Ford announced reductions. I think almost every manufacturer has announced reductions in their electric vehicle plans. Now, Tesla we’re going to increase, but it is not an easy market. To get the cost of the car down it’s really… the battery pack is a piece of the puzzle, but it’s really everything else too. So I really would describe like, making a car more affordable, it’s like Game of Thrones but pennies. Game of pennies. So there’s called to first approximation 10,000 unique items in a car, and if each each one costs five bucks, then you’ve got a $50,000 car. So to actually get the cost of car down, you’ve got to chisel away pennies, and to get the 10,000 items to be, you know, $3 instead of $5. That’s kind of what it amounts to. Now, with respect to our own cell production, we do see a path to cost parity by the end of this year. A very difficult path to cost parity. Currently, 4680s cost more than our suppliers. Now, they cost more than the suppliers today, but they cost less than suppliers a year ago. So you know, there’s a bit of a feast famine thing with with battery cell supply. It’s kind of like for DRAM chips. Like, the DRAM industry goes from like, over supply to under supply. The price of DRAM changes like crazy. It’s kind of like that for cells. So we expect to achieve cost parity with even the much lower supplier sell price today, by the end of the year.当然。所以实现可负担性,现在来看,实际上更多在于车的其他部件,而不是电池包本身。供应商电芯的每千瓦时成本已经大幅下降了。前几年锂离子电芯的供应商价格出现了巨幅飙升,因为每家汽车厂商都下了天量的电池包订单,真的是巨量巨量的订单。所以锂和其他所有原材料以及电芯的价格就疯了。价格翻了一番,电芯价格翻倍。我记得锂的价格涨了差不多五倍,还是 500% 这样的疯狂数字。从那之后,电芯供应商扩大了供应,而其他汽车厂商的订单减少了。我是说,有必要指出,现在电动汽车的日子不好过。通用汽车最近宣布我记得将电动汽车产能削减 50%。福特也宣布削减。我想几乎每家厂商都宣布削减了电动汽车计划。Tesla 当然会继续扩大,但这个市场确实不好做。要降低汽车成本……电池包是拼图的一块,但其实其他所有东西同样重要。所以我真的会把降低汽车成本比喻成《权力的游戏》,但版本是"便士的游戏"。一辆车大约有 10,000 个独立零件,如果每个零件价值 5 美元,那就是一辆 $50,000 的车。要真正降低成本,你得一分一分地去抠,让那 10,000 个零件从 $5 变成 $3。这就是大概的逻辑。现在,关于我们自己的电芯生产,我们确实看到了在今年年底实现成本平价的路径。一条非常艰难的路径。目前 4680 的成本高于供应商。虽然今天高于供应商,但一年前比供应商便宜。所以电芯供应确实有点像丰歉交替——和 DRAM 芯片行业有点像。DRAM 行业来回在供过于求和供不应求之间切换,价格变化剧烈。电芯也是这种情况。我们预计到年底能够实现与现在大幅走低的供应商电芯价格的成本平价。

2:00:07

Unknown ShareholderHi, Mr. Musk. I’ve been a long-term investor since 2012. I voted for your compensation package in 2018 and again this year, and shout out to Tesla Boomer Mama, Alexandra. I had the privilege to talk to you in 2013 briefly and you spoke about the truck which became the Cybertruck. You’re a man of your word. I have friends all over the world in Asia, Canada, and Europe. And I know the Cybertruck has been on tour. How’s been the reception for it, the Cybertruck, and when will it be, or is it possible to sell, and when will it be sold internationally?你好,Musk 先生。我是一位从 2012 年开始的长期投资者。2018 年我投票支持了你的薪酬方案,今年也是。还要向 Tesla Boomer Mama、Alexandra 致敬。我有幸在 2013 年短暂和你聊过,那次你谈到了一款卡车,后来它变成了 Cybertruck。你是一个说到做到的人。我在亚洲、加拿大和欧洲都有朋友,我知道 Cybertruck 在那边巡展过。市场反应怎么样,Cybertruck 什么时候能,或者说有没有可能,在国际市场上销售?

2:01:10

Elon MuskYeah, so I think probably, we might be able to certify it for other markets sometime next year. But like for sure this year, it’s just North America. We did design the car to North American requirements, because if you start going with a superset of all international requirements, it forces a lot of constraints on the Cybertruck that would make the product, frankly, worse. So I think we’ll need to make a special version that is, for example, China-compliant or Europe-compliant. But it realy doesn’t make sense to add that complexity until we’ve achieved a higher-volume production on the Cybertruck. There’s still a lot of work to do on cost down for the Cybertruck. I generally would say like the level of difficulty of going from, say, a prototype, you go from a prototype to production, it’s 100 times harder to go from, you know, prototype to production is 100 times harder, and then once you reach production, to improve the price by 20 percent, like, the cost of goods by 20 percent, is harder than reaching production in the first place. Like it’s mega pain. To be frank, it’s not the funnest job in the world. Like chiseling pennies is not… it’s like washing the dishes, frankly, like wash a lot of dishes here. Like it’s super fun to make prototypes. That’s really fun and it’s kind of cool to get, it’s pretty cool to get the production going. Then the cost of production is a grind. That is like, you know, it’s hard work. You know, there’s some reward to it. Like the sort of a reward to washing the dishes, I guess. You have clean dishes. But that is a tough… so, that’s real hard work.是的,所以我想也许明年某个时候我们能完成它在其他市场的认证。但今年肯定就限于北美了。我们确实是按北美的要求设计这辆车的,因为如果你试图满足所有国际要求的最大公约数,它会给 Cybertruck 施加很多约束,坦率地说会让产品变得更差。所以我认为我们需要做一个专门版本,比如符合中国合规标准或欧洲合规标准的版本。但在 Cybertruck 达到更高产量之前增加这种复杂性确实不划算。Cybertruck 的成本下降工作还有大量工作要做。我一般会说,从一个原型机……从原型机到量产,难度是 100 倍。一旦你达到量产,再把生产成本降低 20%,比达到量产本身还难。这真的是超级痛苦。坦率地说,这不是世界上最有趣的工作。一分一分地抠成本……就像洗碗,说真的,这里有很多碗要洗。做原型机超级好玩,那真的很好玩,让量产启动也还挺酷的。然后降低生产成本就是一种磨砺。那是……你知道,是艰苦的工作。也有一些成就感,就像洗碗的成就感——碗洗干净了。但这是艰苦的……真的是非常艰苦的工作。

2:02:53

Unknown ShareholderI just have to say that there’s been a really big reception, like I have friends message me that they loved the Cybertruck design, and it’s definitely head-turner.我只想说,反响真的非常好,我有很多朋友发消息说他们喜欢 Cybertruck 的设计,它绝对是一辆回头率超高的车。

2:03:27

Elon MuskOh, yeah. I think from a demand standpoint, we would have plenty of demand in other parts of the world for Cybertruck. No question. Like wherever it goes anywhere in the world, it gets a massive crowd. So it’s not a demand thing, it’s really we’ve got to reach volume production, go through the cost grind. It would be difficult to overstate the difficulty in the cost grind. It’s really intense. And then we’ve got to recertify the car, which includes making some design changes for it to meet, to be compliant in other markets.哦,是的。我认为从需求角度来说,Cybertruck 在世界其他地方会有充足的需求,毫无疑问。无论它出现在世界哪个地方,都会引来巨大的人群。所以问题不在于需求,真正的问题在于我们必须先达到量产规模,完成成本磨砺。很难夸大成本磨砺的难度,真的非常艰巨。然后我们还得重新对这辆车进行认证,这包括做一些设计改动才能在其他市场合规。

2:04:07

Unknown ShareholderGood afternoon, Elon. I like your shoes. I don’t know if everybody else can see them out there. Cybertruck. Yeah. My question was, in regards to the Foundation Series, do you guys have a certain number that you are planning on making or a timeline of when the non-Foundation Series are going to come out?下午好,Elon。我喜欢你的鞋子。不知道大家能不能看到,是 Cybertruck 的图案。是的。我的问题是关于 Foundation Series 的,你们有没有计划生产一定数量,或者非 Foundation Series 什么时候会出来,有没有时间表?

2:04:27

Elon MuskYeah, we’ll start making the… We’ll end the foundation series actually pretty soon and the non-Foundation Series sometime next quarter.是的,我们会开始……实际上很快就会结束 Foundation Series,非 Foundation Series 大概下个季度就会推出。

2:04:42

MichaelHi, Elon. Thank you for delivering shareholder value, and congrats on your pay package. And I’m Michael, I ask a lot of questions on the quarterly investor calls. And I wanted to ask you, can you give a little bit more color on the neural net scaling laws that you’re seeing as you’re training FSD? Like how much data, how much more inference compute, how much more training compute do you need for each successive nine in reliability of the Full Self-Driving software? And how much data are you currently collecting? Thank you.嗨 Elon。感谢你为股东创造价值,也恭喜你的薪酬方案获批。我叫 Michael,我在每季度的投资者电话会议上经常提问。我想问你能不能多介绍一下你们在训练 FSD 过程中看到的神经网络缩放规律?比如每提升一个九(可靠性上升一个量级),需要多少更多的数据、推理算力、训练算力?以及你们目前的数据采集量是多少?谢谢。

2:04:48

Elon MuskYeah, that’s a great question. I mean, that’s something that we go through, really every week at Tesla. I spend a lot of time with the Tesla AI team, and I think probably like, a huge portion of, I mean, it’s really like, a big part of my job is like, “Okay, we need to get the car to drive itself.” And yeah, you need to solve things on a chip level for inference for training. For software, there’s also massive data storage challenges because you have petabytes of video coming in. And even for, say, for a big Nvidia cluster, it’s actually really hard to make a big Nvidia video cluster actually work in training. It doesn’t just open the box and plug it in. It’s not like that at all. It’s like a massive effort required to get a big trading cluster to operate at all, and then to operate with high uptime. With respect to like the various versions that we’re seeing, like you go from version 12.3, just ignore the 12 and think of it like 3, 4, 5, 6, that’s actually the way to think about it. Ignore the 12 part and just call it like version 3, version 4, version 5, version 6. That’s how to think about it. Between each one, there’s anywhere from, I don’t know, a minimum of a doubling of improvement to, in some cases, I think, a five- to 10-fold improvement. Especially as we eliminate sort of, say… I think we’re close to eliminating almost all static-object collisions. So, you know, like curbs and medians. Like, we’re pretty close to having it, to have almost zero static object collisions. So once you get to zero static… now you have a gigantic improvement in miles between interventions. Then you get into classes of dynamic objects that are in different classes and different, things can get obviously very complicated. If you’ve got a complex intersection with traffic lights all over the place, and like somebody bumped the one traffic light, and now it’s pointing in the wrong direction, or the traffic light’s broken, and there’s someone who is not obeying the traffic laws because they’re just running a red or they got confused about traffic light. So you get these very complex situations that are much harder to solve. And then, like I was saying earlier, it actually gets, as the system gets better, it gets harder to figure out which AI model is better, because now you know, like, “Okay, it’s thousands of miles between interventions.” How do we, as quickly as possible, figure out which AI model is better. And when you make these different AI models, they’re obviously not like super deterministic, so we have a new model that eliminates one problem but creates another problem. So we’re trying to solve this by a combination of simulation, uploading models, having them run in Shadow Mode. It’s actually kind of helpful that not everyone has Full Self-Driving, because we can see, we can run it in Shadow Mode and see, “What would this new model have done compared to what the user did?” So since we’ve got, you know, millions of cars that we can do this with, that gives us a delta between what the AI model predicted would do and the user would do. And if you kind of sum up the errors between them, you can see “Oh, there was a bigger error stack from this model versus that model,” when you uploaded them into, each uploaded them into 100,000 cars. But that’s the biggest limiter right now. It’s not training, it’s not data, it’s actually testing the AI models. And then figuring out clever ways to figure out if a new model is better or not. Like there were sort of particular intersections that are difficult. And so if we just, like all the models will be great at like driving on a well-painted road, with no intersection. They’ll all be great at that. But will they be great at the complicated… So we’ve identified several thousand intersections in the United States where we’ll actually take the new model and try the car in those very difficult intersections. Like the, you know, the sort of famous like “Chuck’s left turn.” So if you imagine Chuck’s left turn—hey Chuck. I wonder what the neighbors think. But there’s many such complicated traffic situations in the country. So we’ve identified several thousand, which we then send cars to those locations to compare the models. And then as I mentioned, as we’ve yet to uncork any of the ability of Hardware 4, which we’ll do later this year. So I think the exponential rate of improvement of miles between intervention will continue and will accelerate.是的,这是个好问题。我是说,这是我们在 Tesla 每周都要深入探讨的事情。我在 Tesla AI 团队花了大量时间,而且我大工作的很大一部分说白了就是"好,我们要让这辆车自己开起来。"是的,你需要在芯片层面解决推理和训练问题。在软件层面,还有巨大的数据存储挑战,因为你有 PB 级的视频源源不断进来。即使是对一个大型 Nvidia 集群来说,要让一个大型 Nvidia GPU 集群真正跑起来训练也是极其困难的。不是说打开箱子插上插头就能用,完全不是那回事。要让一个大型训练集群真正运转起来、还要保持高可用率,需要付出巨量的努力。关于我们看到的各个版本,比如从 12.3 版本——忽略那个 12,把它想成 3、4、5、6,这才是正确的理解方式。忽略 12,就叫版本 3、版本 4、版本 5、版本 6。每两个版本之间,提升幅度至少翻倍,某些情况下我认为能有五到十倍的提升。尤其是当我们消除了某些类别的问题……我觉得我们快要消除几乎所有静态障碍物碰撞了。比如路缘石和隔离带,我们基本上快做到几乎零静态障碍物碰撞了。一旦做到零静态……那干预之间的里程数就会有巨大的飞跃。然后你就要进入不同类别的动态障碍物,情况会变得非常复杂。如果遇到一个复杂的十字路口,信号灯到处都是,而且有人撞歪了一个信号灯,现在它指向了错误的方向,或者信号灯坏了,还有人无视交通规则,闯红灯或者搞混了信号灯。这些极其复杂的场景要难解决得多。而且就像我之前说的,系统越好,反而越难判断哪个 AI 模型更好,因为现在干预之间的里程已经是几千英里了,我们要怎么尽快搞清楚哪个 AI 模型更好?当你训练出这些不同的 AI 模型时,它们显然不是完全确定性的,所以新模型可能消除了一个问题,却引入了另一个问题。我们正在通过仿真、上传模型、让模型以 Shadow Mode 运行来解决这个问题。其实挺有意思的是,不是每个人都有 Full Self-Driving,因为我们可以让模型在 Shadow Mode 下跑,看"这个新模型会做出什么决策,和用户实际做的相比有什么不同?"因为我们有数以百万计的车辆可以用来做这件事,这就给了我们 AI 模型预测行为与用户实际行为之间的差值。如果你把差值的误差叠加起来,当你把两个模型分别上传到 10 万辆车里时,你就能看到"哦,这个模型的误差堆积比那个更大。"但这才是目前最大的瓶颈。不是训练,不是数据,而是对 AI 模型的测试——想方设法弄清楚新模型是否更好。比如有一些特别难搞的路口。所有模型在一条标线清晰、没有路口的道路上都会表现得很好,这个不难。但它们能不能搞定那些复杂情况?所以我们识别了美国境内几千个路口,会把新模型放到这些极难路口实测。比如那个著名的"Chuck 的左转弯"。你想象一下 Chuck 的左转弯——嘿 Chuck。不知道邻居们怎么看。但全国有很多这样的复杂交通场景。所以我们已经识别了几千个,然后派车到那些地方去对比模型。还有我提到过的,我们的 Hardware 4 的能力还没有释放任何,我们今年晚些时候会做这件事。所以我认为干预之间里程数的指数级提升速度还会持续,并且会加速。

2:11:23

Unknown ShareholderHey Elon. I was wondering if, as you’ve called it, a Tesla is basically a robot with wheels, and so I’m wondering, as that logic transfers over to Optimus, what kind of… Will Tesla use any large language models on top of the current Tesla robotics capabilities? And also, if so, will Optimus have any kind of personality? And would that be something that the end user might be able to have control over?嘿 Elon。你曾经说 Tesla 基本上是一辆带轮子的机器人,所以我想问,当这个逻辑延伸到 Optimus 上,Tesla 会在现有 Tesla 机器人能力之上使用任何大型语言模型吗?另外,如果会的话,Optimus 会有什么样的个性吗?最终用户能不能有控制权?

2:12:19

Elon MuskYes, to all of those questions. Yes to all. Like we’re headed for a wild future. Wild, wild wild. Cars will drive themselves, people will have super helpful humanoid help robots. And yeah, you’ll be able to customize the personality, customize the voice. And really, the robot will kind of get to know you as well, and get to know your preferences. You won’t even have to say things because it’ll just kind of understand you. I think we’ll get to this point where it’s like, it’ll be odd not to have a robot buddy, sort of, not to have your C-3PO and R2-D2.所有这些问题的答案都是肯定的。全都是。我们正走向一个疯狂的未来。真的是疯狂、疯狂、疯狂。汽车会自动驾驶,人们会拥有超级有用的人形助手机器人。而且是的,你可以自定义个性,自定义声音。实际上,机器人也会慢慢了解你,了解你的偏好。你甚至不用开口说什么,它就能理解你。我想我们会到达这样一个时间点:不有一个机器人伙伴反而感觉奇怪,就像没有你的 C-3PO 和 R2-D2 一样。

2:12:55

MaxHi, Elon. Max here, huge fan. Thank you for hosting us. I wanted to ask you, how much integration work do you think will be needed to deploy Optimus into different types of factories, industries? Like unique technicians, or just have them go watch? How do you foresee that?嘿 Elon,我是 Max,超级粉丝。感谢接待我们。我想问,你认为把 Optimus 部署到不同类型的工厂和行业,需要多少集成工作?比如需要专门的技术人员,还是让机器人去观察就行了?你怎么预见这个过程?

2:13:35

Elon MuskWell, I think if you fast forward a few years, it really will be quite a generalized robot, like I’d say two years from now. Like next year… this year it’s quite specific, task-specific training. So to do a particular task, we have to kind of do a fair bit of training to solve that task. But over time, I think you sort of accumulate these kind of training primitives where like, calling walking, for example, is a training primitive. Picking something, identifying an object, and grabbing it, would be a primitive. And these primitives are then generalized to anything. So you can say “Pick up a cup, pick up a shirt, fold the shirt.” These these things will generalize quite quickly. So I expect probably not next year, but like in 2026, it’s really the kind of thing where you could tell it to do kind of a wide range of tasks, including tasks where it has not specifically done that exact thing before. Probably, I’m guessing, 2026.嗯,我觉得如果你快进几年,它会是一个相当通用化的机器人——我说的是大约两年后。明年……今年它还相当专门化,是任务特定的训练。所以要完成某个特定任务,我们需要针对那个任务做相当多的训练。但随着时间推移,我认为你会积累起这些训练原语——比如行走就是一个训练原语,识别一个物体并抓取它也是一个原语。这些原语会被泛化到任何场景。你可以说"捡起一个杯子、捡起一件衬衫、折叠衬衫",这些事情会很快泛化。所以我预计,不是明年,但大约在 2026 年,你真的就可以让它做相当广泛的各种任务,包括它以前从来没有做过的那些事情。我猜大概是 2026 年。

2:14:50

MaxAnd do you foresee a cheaper version where tasks don’t require like walking for example, so the hardware will become a lot simpler, or cheaper?你有没有设想过一个更便宜的版本,比如任务不需要行走,这样硬件就会简单很多、便宜很多?

2:15:15

Elon MuskWe’re gonna focus on making just a fantastic humanoid robot at scale, and really achieving scale economies and building that humanoid robot. At very high volume, if you’re really good at manufacturing, you can get the cost of almost anything down to its constituent elements. Essentially, the weight and if you just look at the weight of the raw materials times the value of those raw materials, excluding circuit boards, you really can say like if if it weighs less, it’s going to cost less. But what I’m saying is that it’s better for us to achieve very high volume with Optimus than to have a wide range of robots that have lower volume. Uh, hi.我们会专注于大规模打造一款非常出色的人形机器人,真正实现规模经济,大规模生产这款人形机器人。在极高的产量下,如果你的制造能力真的很强,几乎任何东西的成本都可以降到接近原材料本身。从本质上说,看重量,如果你把原材料重量乘以这些原材料的价格——不计入电路板——你真的可以说,如果它更轻,它就会更便宜。我想说的是,与其推出一系列产量更低的不同机器人,不如让我们用 Optimus 实现超高产量,这对我们来说更有利。嗯,嗨。

2:16:19

Unknown ShareholderOne of the best things about the recent certifying of your compensation package was listening to all the positive feedback of current and former employees to what you have contributed to Tesla. In the unfortunate event that you’re hit by a car, not Full Self-Driving, can you take a few minutes or a few seconds and brag on your board and the rest of your leadership to assure us that, even without you, Tesla has an incredible future at $30 trillion?近期你的薪酬方案获批之后,最美好的事情之一就是听到 Tesla 现任和前任员工们对你的贡献给予了如此积极的反馈。万一你被一辆车撞了——不是 Full Self-Driving 的那种——你能不能花几分钟或者几秒钟,夸一夸你的董事会和其余的领导团队,让我们放心,就算没有你,Tesla 仍然有一个通往 30 万亿美元的美好未来?

2:16:33

Elon MuskWell, I think Tesla has a good future without me. I think I’m a helpful accelerant to that future. For technology, it matters if you’re ahead or not ahead, a lot. What matters is not innovation, but the rate of innovation. Can you do in one year what other companies do in two years or three years? So probably my biggest, most helpful thing is as innovation accelerant. Because given enough time, the various startups that are doing humanoid robots will eventually succeed. One of them will. So what really matters is, can we be much faster than everyone else? Can our product be done a few years before theirs and be better? Because if that’s not the case, then they will achieve the valuation and not Tesla. They will make the value product, and not Tesla. So, you know, that’s where I think I’m probably most useful, is that accelerating pace of technology and innovation and getting to scale. Yeah. That’s it for me, mostly, but I am very much heartened by and appreciate the support of current and former Tesla employees, Tesla board, and all of you guys for helping out. My heart goes out to you.嗯,我觉得 Tesla 没有我也有很好的未来。我认为我是那个未来的一个有益加速器。对于科技来说,你是否领先这件事非常重要。重要的不是创新,而是创新的速度。你能不能把别人要两三年才能做到的事情,在一年内做到?所以我最大的贡献,最有用的一点,可能就是作为创新加速器。因为给足够的时间,各家做人形机器人的初创公司最终都会成功,总有一家能做到。所以真正重要的是,我们能不能比所有人快得多?我们的产品能不能比他们早几年做出来,而且做得更好?因为如果做不到这一点,那市值就会归他们,而不是 Tesla。他们会做出那个有价值的产品,而不是 Tesla。所以,我认为我最有用的地方,就是加速技术创新和规模化的步伐。对,这基本上是我最核心的价值。但我非常受鼓舞,也非常感激 Tesla 现任和前任员工、Tesla 董事会以及你们大家的支持和帮助。我的心与你们同在。

2:18:21

JessicaHi Elon. Jessica, or my name’s Jessica, and I have lived full-time RV for about three years in South Texas. And I just wanted to thank you for your Starship, or for the Starship program and everything you’re doing there, in addition to Tesla.嗨 Elon。我叫 Jessica,我在德克萨斯州南部全职住在 RV 里已经大约三年了。我只是想感谢你为 Starship 项目所做的一切,以及你在 Tesla 之外所做的一切。

2:19:04

Elon MuskWait, do you work at SpaceX or something?等等,你是在 SpaceX 工作吗?

2:19:05

JessicaNo.没有。

2:19:06

Elon MuskOkay, but you live in an RV in South Texas?好吧,但你住在德克萨斯州南部的 RV 里?

2:19:08

JessicaYeah. Hi. And in my RV park, they don’t allow car camping for Teslas or electric vehicles at all if you’re not pulling a trailer. And I feel that there’s a huge opportunity there, but also for, just for example, people who are coming into town for Starship launches in Teslas, if they could park somewhere overnight and trickle charge, and maybe have access to a bathroom facility or just something simple like that. Just something I wanted to just put forward, because I know that a lot of people come into the park and are disappointed they can’t stay so. Just a thought.是的。嗨。在我住的 RV 公园里,他们完全不允许 Tesla 或电动车露营,除非你在拖拖车。我觉得这里有很大的机会,同时举个例子,来 Starship 发射现场观看的人如果开的是 Tesla,如果他们能在某个地方过夜低速充电,也许能有个卫生间什么的简单设施,那就很好了。我只是想提出这个建议,因为我知道很多人来了之后发现不能住下来,会很失望。只是一个想法。

2:19:58

Elon MuskOkay, got it. Alright. I’ll inquire and see if there’s like maybe some place that would allow people to stay in their cars. Which in a Tesla, you really can often stay quite comfortably in a car. And yeah, and charge. Alright, thanks. I think, so this will have to be the last question, I think? Or maybe last two. Yeah, alright. So last two questions. You and you, two guys.好,明白了。好的。我会去询问一下,看看有没有什么地方可以让人们在车里过夜。在 Tesla 里,其实经常可以住得相当舒适。是的,还能充电。好的,谢谢。我想,这将是最后一个问题,还是最后两个?好,最后两个。就你们俩,两位。

2:20:01

StevenHey, Elon, my name is Steven. I’m truly thankful for all you’ve done for humanity and watching your companies and what you’ve done has been the most exciting, hope-inspiring movie that there’s ever been. So thank you so much.嘿 Elon,我叫 Steven。我真的非常感激你为人类所做的一切,看着你的公司和你的所作所为,是我所见过的最令人振奋、最激发希望的现实大片。所以真的非常感谢。

2:20:36

Elon MuskThank you.谢谢你。

2:20:37

StevenAnd my question today is about lithium refining. In the past, you stated that would be a limiting factor in the future, and I know Tesla has built the refinery in Texas. I was just kind of curious, your current opinion about the refinery. Do you think there’s enough capacity coming online or will Tesla need to expand past Texas in that regard?我今天的问题是关于锂精炼的。过去你曾提到这将是未来的一个限制因素,我知道 Tesla 在德克萨斯州建了精炼厂。我只是想了解一下你目前对这座精炼厂的看法。你认为未来会有足够的产能上线吗,还是 Tesla 需要在德克萨斯州之外继续扩张?

2:20:58

Elon MuskThere’s enough lithium refining, if you count China. If there’s a geopolitical challenge on that front, then there may be a shortage of lithium. But China is very good at refining, so. But I think, just Tesla figuring out lithium refining, understanding what it takes, and then, once we understand how it works, then we can scale it up from there. I think it’s pretty important to be careful with geopolitical risk, and just make sure that, in a worst-case situation, that Tesla is okay. Alright. This is the last question. Nikhil,如果算上中国的话,锂精炼产能是足够的。如果在地缘政治上出现问题,那可能会出现锂的短缺。但中国在精炼方面非常厉害,所以……但我认为,就 Tesla 自己搞清楚锂精炼这件事、弄懂它需要什么来说,一旦我们搞明白了怎么做,就可以从那里继续扩大规模。我认为对地缘政治风险保持谨慎非常重要,要确保在最坏的情况下,Tesla 也没问题。好的,这是最后一个问题。Nikhil,

2:21:48

ShareholderHi, Elon, thank you. Congratulations for yet another big win. I’m Nikhil, I’m based out of Silicon Valley. And as you mentioned on FSD awareness and giving people rides, because most people unless they really experience it, they don’t quite know how safe it is becoming, and how convenient it is becoming. So I built Tesmi (?), a company, it’s a platform for Tesla owners to offer learning experiences for FSD, and we would love to explore how we can help scale with your support and guidance. And we’d love to have a follow-up conversation to discuss more details with you how we can work together. Thank you.嗨 Elon,谢谢你。恭喜你又赢得了一场大胜利。我是 Nikhil,来自硅谷。正如你提到的,关于 FSD 的认知和让人们亲身体验——因为大多数人除非真正体验过,否则不太了解它变得多安全、多便捷。所以我搭建了一个叫 Tesmi 的平台,让 Tesla 车主为他人提供 FSD 学习体验,我们非常希望在你的支持和指导下一起帮助扩大规模。我们希望能有机会和你进一步交流,讨论如何合作的更多细节。谢谢。

2:22:02

Elon MuskOkay, sure. Okay, sure, sure, sure, sure. You really want to ask a question.好,当然。好的,当然,当然,当然,当然。你是真的想问个问题。

2:22:22

Elon MuskI’m not sure how to answer that question, exactly. But we are focused on improving FSD for sure. I think adoption will be widespread when it is really working insanely well, and it’s driving like a five-star Uber driver, I think adoption will be will be very, very quick.我不太确定如何回答那个问题。但我们确实专注于提升 FSD,这是肯定的。我认为当它真正做到出色——开车像一个五星级 Uber 司机那样——那时候 FSD 的普及速度会非常非常快。

2:23:02

Elon MuskOkay, what’s the suggestion? Sure.好,这个建议是什么?当然。

2:23:05

Unknown ShareholderI shared this suggestion with one of your FSD team, but I don’t know whether it reached you or not. Basically, as FSD keeps on improving, we are not quite sure at what rate it will be improving, the march of lines. And so a lot of sort of skeptic remains as to when you can exactly operate Robotaxi. So it occurred to me that in between Supervised FSD and Robotaxi, there is something, intermediate stage, that’s commercializable, which is what I would call a robot rental car. Okay. The idea is that you would, people would go to your platform to order a rental car, and you would deliver that overnight to the front of their driveway. And then, so the only time that the car would be driving without a person is at night with nobody, and you can take as long and you drop in the front of the car, and after that it’s supervised. So that will get you to commercialization much sooner, much more guaranteed. So that’s my suggestion.我曾经把这个建议分享给你们 FSD 团队的某位成员,但不知道有没有传达到你这里。基本上就是,随着 FSD 持续改进,我们不太确定它的改进速度,时间线上的进展。所以很多怀疑者还在犹豫到底什么时候能真正运营 Robotaxi。这让我想到了一个主意:在有监督的 FSD 和 Robotaxi 之间,有一个中间阶段是可以商业化的,我把它叫做"机器人租赁车"。这个想法是,人们到你们的平台上预订租赁车,你们在夜里把车自动开到他们家门口。这样,汽车在无人状态下行驶的时机只有晚上,而且没有乘客,你可以慢慢开,把车停在他们家门前,之后就是有人监督的行驶了。这样可以让你更快、更有保障地实现商业化。这就是我的建议。

2:23:45

Elon MuskAlright. Well, I appreciate the thought. I think like I said, the progress in FSD will be really amazing. You’ll see with each successive version, like I said, the best way to think of FSD, ignore the 12. Just think of the point number going from version 3 to 4 to 5 to 6, and you’ll see just radical improvements with each successive version. If the current current trend continues, it’s going to be like… you will really find that you don’t intervene in the course of a year, type of thing, even in complex situations. Anyway with that, thank you very much for your support. Thanks, guys. Alright.好的,我很感激这个想法。我想就像我说的,FSD 的进展会真的非常惊人。每一个连续版本你都会看到——就像我说的,看 FSD 的最好方式是忽略那个 12,只看小数点后面的数字从版本 3 到 4 到 5 到 6,你会看到每个连续版本都有翻天覆地的改进。如果当前的趋势持续下去,它会变成……你真的会发现,哪怕是在复杂场景下,在一整年里你也不需要接管,就是这种程度。好了,就说这些,非常感谢大家的支持。谢谢大家。好的。