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Joe Rogan Experience #1169 - Elon Musk

2018-09-07 · PowerfulJRE · 2:37:02 · auto captions · ▶ Watch on YouTube

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0:03

Joe RoganFour, three, two, one. Boom. Thank you, thanks for doing this man, really appreciate it.四、三、二、一。砰。谢谢,谢谢你来,真的很感激。

0:09

Elon MuskHey, welcome, it's very good to meet you.嘿,欢迎,很高兴认识你。

0:11

Joe RoganNice to meet you too. Thanks for not lighting this place on fire.我也很高兴认识你。谢谢你没把这地方点着。

0:13

Elon MuskYou're welcome.不客气。

0:15

Joe RoganLater. How does one, um, just in the middle of doing all the things you do — create cars, rockets, all this stuff you're doing, constantly innovating — decide to just make a flamethrower? Where do you have the time for that?等一下再说。一个人整天在造汽车、火箭、做各种事,不断创新——怎么会突然决定做一把喷火器?你哪来的时间?

0:30

Elon MuskWell, frankly, we didn't put a lot of time into the flamethrower. This was an off-the-cuff thing. So we have sort of like — it's sort of a hobby company called the Boring Company, which started out as a joke and we decided to make it real, and dig a tunnel under LA. And then other people asked us to do tunnels, and so we said yes in a few cases. And then we have a merchandise section that only has one piece of merchandise at a time. And we started off with a cap, and there was only one thing on it, it was just boringcompany.com, cap or hat, that's it. And then we sold the hats, limited edition, it just said the Boring Company. And then I'm a big fan of Spaceballs the movie, and in Spaceballs, Yogurt goes through the merchandising section and they have a flamethrower in the merchandising section of Spaceballs. And like the kids love that one. That's the line, when he pulls out the flamethrower. It's like, we should do a flamethrower.说实话,我们在喷火器上没花多少时间。这是个临时起意的事。我们有个副业公司,叫 the Boring Company,最初是个玩笑,后来决定认真做,在 LA 地下挖一条隧道。然后有其他人找上门来请我们挖隧道,有几个案子我们说了行。我们还有个周边区,每次只卖一样东西。最早卖的是帽子,只印了一个 boringcompany.com,就这样,一顶帽子。帽子卖完了,限量版,上面只写了 the Boring Company。然后嘛,我超喜欢《星际炮兵》(Spaceballs)这部电影,里面 Yogurt 有一段走过周边区的戏,周边区里就有一把喷火器。小孩子最爱那一段,就是他拿出喷火器的那幕。当时就想,我们也应该做一把喷火器。

1:50

Joe RoganSo does anybody tell you no? Does anybody go, Elon — um, maybe for yourself — but selling a flamethrower, the liabilities, all the people you're selling this device to. What kind of unhinged people are going to be buying a flamethrower in the first place? Do we really want to connect ourselves to all these potential arsonists?有没有人对你说不?有没有人说,Elon——先不说你自己——光说卖喷火器,责任风险,那些买这玩意儿的人。什么样的疯子会第一个想到去买喷火器?我们真的想跟这些潜在的纵火犯扯上关系吗?

2:09

Elon MuskYeah, it's a terrible idea. Terrible. I shouldn't — I said, don't buy this flamethrower, don't buy it, don't buy it. That's what I said. But still people bought it. Yeah, there's nothing I can do to stop them, it's baffling. I said don't buy it, it's a bad idea.是啊,这主意烂透了。真的烂。我说了,别买这把喷火器,别买,别买。这是我说的。但还是有人买了。是啊,我没办法阻止他们,匪夷所思。我说了别买,这是个馊主意。

2:29

Joe RoganHow many did you make?你们做了多少把?

2:30

Elon MuskIt's dangerous, it's — it's wrong, don't buy it. Still people bought it, I just couldn't stop them.这东西很危险,很——很不对,别买。但还是有人买了,我根本拦不住。

2:38

Joe RoganHow many did you make? 20,000?你们做了多少把?20,000 把?

2:43

Elon MuskAnd they're all gone in three — I think four days.三天之内就卖完了——我觉得是四天。

2:47

Joe RoganBut it sold out in four days. Are you going to do another run?四天就售罄了。你们还会再开一批吗?

2:50

Elon MuskNo, no, that's it. So I said we'll do 20,000. We did 50,000 — 50,000 hats, and that was a million dollars. And it's like, okay, we'll sell something for 10 million, and that was 20,000 flamethrowers at 500 each. They went fast.不,不,就这一批。我说做 20,000 把。帽子我们做了 50,000 顶,赚了 100 万美元。然后想,好,下次卖个能赚 1000 万的,就做了 20,000 把喷火器,每把 500 美元,卖得很快。

3:20

Joe RoganHow do you have the time to do that, though? I mean, I understand that it's not a big deal in terms of all the other things you do, but how do you have time to do anything? I just — I don't understand your time management skills.但你是怎么挤出时间做这些的?我明白这跟你其他事情比起来不算什么大事,但你到底是怎么找到时间做任何事的?我就——我实在搞不懂你的时间管理。

3:31

Elon MuskI mean, I didn't spend much time on this flamethrower. I mean, to be totally frank, it's actually just a roofing torch with an air rifle cover. It's not a real flamethrower, which is why it says not a flamethrower. That's why we were very clear, this is not actually a flamethrower. And also we were told that various countries would ban shipping of it — but they would not, they would ban flamethrowers. So to solve this problem for all the customs agencies, we labeled it not a flamethrower.我在这把喷火器上没花多少时间。说实在的,它其实只是一把屋顶焊枪加了个气步枪外壳。不是真正的喷火器,所以上面才写着"不是喷火器"。这就是为什么我们说得很清楚,这实际上不是喷火器。还有就是我们被告知很多国家会禁止运输——它们会禁止喷火器,但不会禁止这个。所以为了解决所有海关机构的麻烦,我们就贴上了"不是喷火器"的标签。

4:03

Joe RoganDid it work? Is it effective?这招管用吗?有效果吗?

4:04

Elon MuskI don't know, I think so, yeah, so far. Yes.我不确定,应该是的,目前来看是这样。是的。

4:07

Joe RoganNow, but you said you can't sell a flamethrower — but you do so many different things. Forget about the flamethrower, like how do you do all that other shit? Like how do you, how does one decide to fix LA traffic by drilling holes in the ground? And who do you even approach with that? Like when you have this idea, who do you talk to about that?好,不过你刚才说你不能卖喷火器——但你做这么多不同的事。先别说喷火器了,你是怎么做到所有这些的?就像,你是怎么决定在地下打洞来解决 LA 交通问题的?而且你去找谁谈这件事?你有这个想法的时候,你跟谁聊?

4:25

Elon MuskI mean, I'm not saying it's going to be successful, you know — it's like asserting that it's going to be successful. But so far, I've lived in LA for 16 years and the traffic has always been terrible. And so I don't see any other ideas for improving the traffic. So in desperation we're going to try a tunnel, and maybe that tunnel will be successful, and maybe it won't.我不是说这一定会成功,你知道——不是断言它会成功。不过我在 LA 住了 16 年,这里的交通一直很烂。我也没看到什么其他改善交通的办法。所以在绝望之下,我们就试着挖隧道,也许这条隧道能成,也许不能。

4:59

Joe RoganI'm listening.我在听。

5:01

Elon MuskYeah, I'm not trying to convince you it's going to work.是啊,我不是要说服你这事能成。

5:03

Joe RoganAnd are the people — or anyone — but you're starting this, though. This is actually a project you're starting to implement, right?那些人——或者任何人——但你现在是真的在推动这件事,对吧?这个项目你真的在落实了?

5:10

Elon MuskYeah, yeah. We've dug about a mile. It's quite long, it takes a long time to walk it.对对,我们已经挖了差不多一英里了。挺长的,走完要花不少时间。

5:17

Joe RoganNow when you're doing this, what is the ultimate plan?那你做这件事的终极计划是什么?

5:19

Elon MuskThe ultimate plan is to have these in major cities and anywhere there's mass congestion.终极计划是在各大城市以及任何严重堵车的地方都建这种隧道。

5:23

Joe RoganAnd just try it out in LA first.先在 LA 试试看。

5:26

Elon MuskYeah, it's in LA because I mostly live in LA, that's the reason. It's a terrible place to dig tunnels. This is one of the worst places to dig tunnels, because — mostly because of the paperwork. People think it's like, what about seismic? It's like, actually earth tunnels are very safe in earthquakes.对,选在 LA 是因为我主要住在 LA,就这个原因。LA 其实是挖隧道最糟糕的地方之一。这是最差的挖隧道选址之一,原因嘛——主要是文件手续太多了。大家以为问题是地震,但实际上地下隧道在地震里非常安全。

5:45

Joe RoganWhy is that?为什么?

5:46

Elon MuskEarthquakes are essentially a surface phenomenon. It's like waves on the ocean. So if there's a storm, you want to be in a submarine. So being in a tunnel is like being in a submarine. Now, the way the tunnel is constructed, it's constructed out of these interlocking segments, kind of like a snake. It's sort of like a snake exoskeleton with double seals. And so even when the ground moves, the tunnel actually is able to shift along with the ground, like an underground snake. And it doesn't crack or break, and it's extremely unlikely that both seals would be broken. And it's capable of taking five atmospheres of pressure. It's waterproof, methane-proof or gas-proof of any kind, and meets all California seismic requirements.地震本质上是一种表面现象,就像海洋上的波浪。所以如果有风暴,你要待在潜水艇里。待在隧道里就像待在潜水艇里。至于隧道的建造方式,它是由一节节互锁的管片拼起来的,有点像蛇。像是蛇的外骨骼,带双重密封。所以即使地面移动,隧道也能跟着地面一起位移,就像地下的蛇一样。它不会开裂断裂,两道密封同时被破坏的概率极低。它能承受 5 个大气压的压力,防水、防甲烷、防任何气体,并且符合加州所有的抗震要求。

6:46

Joe RoganSo when you have this idea, who do you bring this to?那你有这个想法的时候,你去找谁谈?

6:50

Elon MuskI'm not sure what you mean by that.我不太确定你说的是什么意思。

6:51

Joe RoganWell, when you're implementing it, so you're digging holes in the ground, like you have to bring it to someone that lets you do it.就是说,你要落实这件事,你在地下打洞,肯定要找人批准才能做吧。

6:56

Elon MuskYeah, so there were some engineers from SpaceX who thought it would be cool to do this. And the guy who runs it, like day-to-day, Steve Davis — he's a long-time SpaceX engineer, is great. So Steve was like, I'd like to help make this happen. I was like, cool. So we started off with digging a hole in the ground. It's got like a permit for a pit, a big pit, and just dug a big pit.对,当时 SpaceX 有几个工程师觉得这件事很酷,想试试。日常运营这个项目的人叫 Steve Davis——他是 SpaceX 的老将,很厉害。Steve 说,我想帮着把这件事做成。我说,好啊。就这样,我们从在地上挖一个坑开始。拿了一个坑的许可证,一个大坑,然后就挖了这个大坑。

7:31

Joe RoganAnd you have to tell them what the pit's for, or you just say, hey, we just want to dig a hole?你们得告诉他们坑是干什么用的,还是说就是说,嘿,我们就想挖个坑?

7:38

Elon MuskFill out this form, that's it.填个表,就这样。

7:43

Joe RoganYeah, it was put in our parking lot. But do you have to give them some sort of a blueprint for your ultimate idea, and do they have to approve it? Like how does that work?对,就挖在我们停车场里。但你们要不要给他们看一份终极构想的蓝图,他们需要批准吗?这是怎么运作的?

7:50

Elon MuskNow we just started off with a pit, okay, big pit. And you know, you don't really care about the existential nature of a pit, you just say like, I want a pit, right? And it's a hole in the ground. So then we got the permit for the pit and we dug the pit. And we dug it in like, I don't know, three days, two, three days — actually I think two, 48 hours, something like that. Because Eric Garcetti was coming by, he was going to attend the Hyperloop competition, which is like a student competition we have for who can make the fastest pod in the Hyperloop. And he was coming — the finals were going to be on Sunday afternoon, and so Eric was coming by on Sunday afternoon. And it was like, you know, we should dig this pit and then show Eric. So it was like Friday morning, and then yeah, so it was a little over 40 hours later we dug the pit. It was like 24/7, or 48 straight hours, something like that, and dug this big pit. And we showed Eric the pit. Like obviously it's just a pit, but hey, a hole in the ground is better than no hole in the ground.我们最初只是从一个坑开始,好,一个大坑。你知道,人家也不在乎一个坑的存在意义,就是说我要挖个坑,对吧?就是个地洞。所以我们拿到了坑的许可证,就挖了。挖的时间……我不知道,大概三天,两三天——实际上我觉得是两天,48 小时,大概那样。因为 Eric Garcetti 要过来,他来参加 Hyperloop 比赛,那是一个学生竞赛,比赛谁能在 Hyperloop 里造出最快的豆荚。他要来——决赛是周日下午,Eric 周日下午来。就想着,嗯,我们应该把这个坑挖好然后给 Eric 看。当时是周五早上,然后是的,所以 40 多个小时后我们挖好了坑。基本上 24/7、48 小时不停,大概就这样,挖了这个大坑。然后给 Eric 看了这个坑。显然这只是个坑,但嘿,有洞总比没洞强。

9:09

Joe RoganAnd what do you tell me about this pit? I mean, you said this is the beginning of this idea.那你跟他怎么介绍这个坑?我是说,你说这是一个想法的开端。

9:13

Elon MuskYes, we're going to build tunnels under LA to help funnel traffic better, and there you go.对,我们要在 LA 地下建隧道来改善交通,就这样。

9:17

Joe RoganAnd they just go, okay. We've joked around about this in the podcast before, that like what other person can go to the people that run the city and go, hey, we're going to dig some holes in the ground and put some tunnels in there, and they go, oh yeah, okay. Now they know where they're digging holes in the ground. But people dig holes in the ground all the time. But my question is like, I know how much time you must be spending on your Tesla factory, I know how much time you must be spending on SpaceX, and yet you still have time to dig holes under the ground in LA and come up with these ideas and then implement them.然后他们就说,好的。我们在播客里之前开过玩笑,说还有谁能去找管这座城市的人说,嘿,我们要在地下挖几个洞建几条隧道,然后人家说,哦好的。他们知道往哪挖洞。但人们本来就一直在挖洞。我的问题是,我知道你在 Tesla 工厂要花多少时间,我知道你在 SpaceX 要花多少时间,但你还是有时间在 LA 地下挖洞,想出这些主意然后付诸实施。

9:49

Elon MuskI got a million ideas.我脑子里有一百万个主意。

9:50

Joe RoganI'm sure you do, no shortage of that. Yeah, I just don't know how you manage your time. I don't understand it. It doesn't seem — it doesn't even seem humanly possible.我相信,这个肯定不缺。是啊,我就是不明白你是怎么管理时间的。我理解不了。这看起来——这看起来甚至根本不像人类能做到的事。

10:00

Elon MuskYou know, I do basically — I think people don't totally understand what I do with my time. They think like I'm a business guy or something like that. Like my Wikipedia page says business magnate.你知道吗,我基本上——我觉得人们对我怎么用时间并不完全了解。他们以为我是个商人之类的。我的维基百科页面说我是 business magnate(商业巨头)。

10:13

Joe RoganWhat would you call yourself?你会怎么称呼自己?

10:15

Elon MuskA business magnet. Can someone please change my Wikipedia page to magnet?Business magnet(磁铁)。能不能有人帮我把维基百科页面改成 magnet?

10:20

Joe RoganThey'll change it right now, it's probably already changed.他们现在就会改,估计已经改了。

10:22

Elon MuskIt's locked, so somebody has to be able to unlock it and change it to magnet. I want to be a magnet. No, I do engineering and, you know, manufacturing and that kind of thing. That's like 80 percent or more of my time — ideas and then the implementation of those ideas. That's like hardcore engineering, like designing things, you know.那页面是锁定的,得有人解锁才能改成 magnet。我想成为一块磁铁。不,我做的是工程,还有制造之类的事情。这占了我 80% 甚至更多的时间——想法,然后把这些想法落地实现。这是硬核工程,就是设计东西,你懂的。

10:44

Joe RoganRight.嗯。

10:47

Elon MuskStructural, mechanical, electrical, software, user interface engineering, aerospace engineering.结构、机械、电气、软件、用户界面工程、航空航天工程。

10:54

Joe RoganBut you must understand there's not a whole lot of human beings like you, you know that, right? You're an oddity.但你肯定明白,世界上像你这样的人并不多,你知道的,对吧?你是个异类。

11:01

Elon MuskYes. To chimps like me — we're all chimps.是的。对于我这样的猩猩来说——我们都是猩猩。

11:05

Joe RoganYeah, we are. We're one notch — we're not above a chimp. Some of us are a little more. I'm confused when I watch you doing all these things. I'm like, how does this fuck have all this time and all this energy and all these ideas, and then people just let him do these things?是啊,我们就差了那么一点——我们比猩猩好不了多少。有些人稍微强一点。看你做这些事情,我就很困惑。我想,这家伙哪来那么多时间、那么多精力、那么多主意,然后还有人让他去做这些事?

11:20

Elon MuskBecause I'm an alien.因为我是外星人。

11:22

Joe RoganThat's what I've speculated, yes. I'm on record saying this in the past. I wonder if it's true. I was like, if there was — like maybe an intelligent being that we created, you know, like some AI creature that's superior to people, maybe just hang around with us for a little while like you've been doing, and then fix a bunch of shit, maybe that's the way.这正是我猜测的,是的。我有记录说过这话的。我有时候会想,万一是真的呢。我就想,如果有一种我们创造出来的智能生命,比如某个 AI 生物,比人类更高级,也许它就在我们身边住一段时间就像你一直在做的,然后修复一堆破事,也许这就是方式。

11:43

Elon MuskI might have some mutation or something like that.我可能有某种基因突变之类的东西。

11:45

Joe RoganYou might. Do you think you do? You probably do. Do you wonder, like, you're around normal people and you're like, hmm — like what's up with these boring dumb fucks ever?你可能真的有。你觉得你有吗?你可能有。你跟普通人在一起的时候会不会想,嗯——这些无聊的蠢货是怎么回事啊?

11:56

Elon MuskNot bad for a human. But I think we will not be able to hold a candle to AI.对一个人类来说还不错。不过我觉得我们根本没法跟 AI 相比。

12:04

Joe RoganHmm. You scare the shit out of me when you talk about AI. Between you and Sam Harris — I didn't even consider it until I did a podcast with Sam once. He made me shit my pants talking about AI. I realized like, oh well, this is a genie that once it's out of the bottle, you're never getting it back in.嗯,你谈到 AI 的时候把我吓得不轻。你和 Sam Harris 两个人——我完全没想过这件事,直到有一次跟 Sam 录播客。他谈 AI 把我聊得屁滚尿流。我意识到,哦好吧,这是一个精灵,一旦从瓶子里出来,就再也塞不回去了。

12:21

Elon MuskThat's true.确实如此。

12:21

Joe RoganThere was a video that you tweeted about one of those Boston Dynamics robots, and you're like, in the future it'll be moving so fast you can't see it without a strobe light.你转发过一个关于那些 Boston Dynamics 机器人的视频,你说,将来它移动的速度会快到你用肉眼看不见,要用频闪灯才能看到。

12:33

Elon MuskYeah, you could probably do that right now.对,现在可能就已经能做到了。

12:36

Joe RoganAnd no one's really paying attention too much, other than people like you or people that are really obsessed with technology. All these things are happening and these robots are — did you see the one where PETA put out a statement that you shouldn't kick robots?除了像你这样的人或者真正痴迷于技术的人,大多数人并没有太多关注这些。这些事情都在发生,这些机器人——你看到了吗,PETA 发声明说不该踢机器人?

12:52

Elon MuskIt's probably not wise, for retribution. Their memory is very good.这可能不明智,会遭到报复。它们的记忆力非常好。

12:58

Joe RoganI bet it's really good.我打赌真的很好。

12:59

Elon MuskIt's really good.真的很好。

13:00

Joe RoganI bet it is. And getting better every day. It's really good. Are you honestly, legitimately concerned about this? Is AI one of your main worries in regards to the future?我打赌是的。而且每天都在变得更好。真的很好。你真的是发自内心地、切切实实地担心这件事吗?AI 是你对未来最主要的担忧之一吗?

13:16

Elon MuskYes. It's less of a worry than it used to be, mostly due to taking more of a fatalistic attitude.是的。比以前担心得少了,主要是因为变得更加宿命论了。

13:27

Joe RoganSo you used to have more hope, and you gave up some of it, and now you don't worry as much about AI. You're like, this is just what it is.所以你以前还抱有更多希望,后来放弃了一些,现在对 AI 也不那么担心了。你就是,这就是现实嘛。

13:38

Elon MuskYeah, pretty much. Yes, yes. But it's not necessarily bad. It's just — it's definitely going to be outside of human control.差不多,是的。不过这未必是坏事,只是——肯定会超出人类的控制范围。

13:51

Joe RoganNot necessarily bad, right?未必是坏事,对吧?

13:52

Elon MuskYeah, it's not necessarily bad, it's just outside of human control. Now, the thing that's going to be tricky here is that it's going to be very tempting to use AI as a weapon. It's going to be very tempting — in fact, it will be used as a weapon. So the on-ramp to serious AI, the danger is going to be more humans using it against each other, I think, most likely. That'll be the danger.对,未必是坏事,只是超出人类控制而已。问题在于,利用 AI 作为武器这件事会非常诱人。会非常诱人——事实上,它肯定会被用作武器。所以在 AI 真正强大之前的过渡阶段,危险主要在于人类用它来互相攻击,我觉得大概率是这样。那才是真正的危险。

14:28

Joe RoganYeah. How far do you think we are from something that can make its own mind up whether or not something's ethically or morally correct, or whether or not it wants to do something, or whether or not it wants to improve itself, or whether or not it wants to protect itself from people or from other AI? How far away are we from something that's really truly sentient?是啊。你觉得我们距离那种能自己判断某件事在伦理上或道德上是否正确、能决定是否要做某件事、能决定是否要改进自身、能决定是否要保护自己不受人类或其他 AI 威胁的存在还有多远?距离真正意义上的有自我意识,还有多远?

14:52

Elon MuskWell, I mean, you could argue that any group of people, like a company, is essentially a cybernetic collective of people and machines. That's what a company is. And then there are different levels of complexity in the way these companies are formed. And then there's like a collective AI in the Google search — Google search, you know, where we're all sort of plugged in as like nodes on the network, like leaves on a big tree. And we're all feeding this network with questions and answers. We're all collectively programming the AI. And Google, plus all the humans that connect to it, are one giant cybernetic collective. This is also true of Facebook and Twitter and Instagram and all these social networks. They're giant cybernetic collectives.嗯,你可以说,任何一群人,比如一家公司,本质上就是人和机器的控制论集合体。公司就是这个东西。然后这些公司的组织方式有不同程度的复杂性。还有就是 Google 搜索里存在一种集体 AI——Google 搜索,你知道,我们都像是网络上的节点,就像大树上的叶子一样插在网络里。我们都在用问题和答案喂这个网络,我们在集体编程这个 AI。Google 加上连接到它的所有人类,就是一个巨大的控制论集合体。Facebook、Twitter、Instagram 还有所有这些社交网络也是如此。它们都是巨大的控制论集合体。

16:06

Joe RoganHumans and electronics all interfacing — and constantly now, constantly connected.人类和电子设备全都在互联——而且是现在这种状态,持续不断地连接着。

16:11

Elon MuskYes, constantly.对,不间断地。

16:15

Joe RoganOne of the things that I've been thinking about a lot over the last few years is that one of the things that drives a lot of people crazy is how many people are obsessed with materialism and getting the latest, greatest thing. And I wonder how much of that is — well, a lot of it is most certainly fueling technology and innovation. It almost seems like it's built into us. It's like what we like and what we want, that we're fueling this thing that's constantly around us all the time. And it doesn't seem possible that people are going to pump the brakes, it doesn't seem possible at this stage. We're constantly expecting a new cell phone, the latest Tesla update, the newest MacBook Pro. Everything has to be newer and better, and that's going to lead to some incredible point. And it seems like it's built into us. It almost seems like it's an instinct, that we're working towards this, that we like it. Our job, just like the ants build the anthill, our job is to somehow rather fuel this.过去几年里,我一直在想的一件事是,很多人发疯是因为有多少人痴迷于物质主义,要买最新最好的东西。我在想,这有多少是在——嗯,很大程度上肯定是在推动技术和创新。感觉这几乎是内建在我们身上的。这就是我们喜欢和想要的,我们在不断给这个时刻包围着我们的东西提供燃料。看来人们不可能踩刹车,在这个阶段这似乎是不可能的。我们一直期待着新手机、最新的 Tesla 更新、最新的 MacBook Pro。一切都得更新更好,这将导向某个不可思议的节点。这感觉像是内建在我们身体里的,几乎像是本能,我们正在朝这个方向努力,而且我们喜欢它。我们的工作,就像蚂蚁建蚁丘一样,我们的工作就是以某种方式推动这件事。

17:18

Elon MuskYes. I mean, I made this comment some years ago, but it feels like we are the biological bootloader for AI, effectively. We are building it, and then we're building progressively greater intelligence, and the percentage of intelligence that is not human is increasing. And eventually we will represent a very small percentage of intelligence. But the AI is formed, strangely, by the human limbic system. It is in large part our id, writ large.是的。我几年前说过这句话,但感觉我们就是 AI 的生物引导程序(biological bootloader),实际上就是这样。我们在建造它,然后我们在建造越来越强大的智能,非人类智能所占的比例在不断增加。最终我们将只占智能的极小一部分。但奇怪的是,AI 是由人类的边缘系统(limbic system)塑造的。它在很大程度上是我们的本我(id),被放大了。

18:03

Joe RoganHow so?怎么说?

18:04

Elon MuskWell, we mentioned all those things, the sort of primal drives. There's all the things that we like and hate and fear — they're all there on the internet. They're a projection of our limbic system.嗯,我们提到了那些东西,那些原始驱动力。我们喜欢的、憎恶的、恐惧的东西——它们全都在互联网上。它们是我们边缘系统的投影。

18:32

Joe RoganThat's true. No, it makes sense. And thinking of it as a — I mean, thinking of corporations, and just thinking of just human beings communicating online through these social media networks, as some sort of an organism. That's a — it's a cyborg, it's a combination of electronics and biology, yeah.没错。有道理。把它当作一种——我是说,把公司,把人类通过这些社交媒体网络在线交流,当作某种有机体来看。这是一个控制论生命,是电子与生物的结合,是的。

18:53

Elon MuskThis is in some measure like — the success of these online systems is sort of a function of how much limbic resonance they're able to achieve with people. The more limbic resonance, the more engagement. Whereas like, one of the reasons why probably Instagram is more enticing than Twitter — limbic resonance, yeah.这在某种程度上就像——这些在线系统的成功,是它们能与人产生多少边缘共鸣(limbic resonance)的函数。边缘共鸣越强,参与度越高。就像 Instagram 比 Twitter 更吸引人可能就是这个原因——边缘共鸣,是的。

19:22

Joe RoganYou get more images, more video.图片更多,视频更多。

19:25

Elon MuskYes.是的。

19:26

Joe RoganTweaking your system more.更能刺激你的系统。

19:27

Elon MuskYes.是的。

19:28

Joe RoganDo you worry about, or wonder in fact, about what the next step is? I mean, a lot of people didn't see Twitter coming — that, you know, communicating with 140 characters, or 280 now, would be a thing that people would be interested in. Like, it's going to excel, it's going to become more connected to us, right?你会担心,或者说其实在好奇,下一步会是什么?我是说,很多人没有预料到 Twitter 的出现——就是用 140 个字符,现在是 280 个字符来交流,会成为人们感兴趣的事。就像,它会进化,它会跟我们结合得更紧,对吧?

19:49

Elon MuskYes, things are getting more and more connected. They're at this point constrained by bandwidth. Our input-output is slow, particularly output. Output got worse with thumbs, you know. We just have — input with 10 fingers, now we have thumbs. But images are also a way of communicating at high bandwidth. You take pictures and you send pictures to people, and that communicates far more information than you can communicate with your thumbs.是的,一切都变得越来越相互连接。此刻它们受到带宽的限制。我们的输入输出很慢,特别是输出。用拇指打字让输出变得更糟了,你知道。我们以前用 10 根手指输入,现在变成了拇指。但图片也是一种高带宽的通信方式。你拍照片发给别人,传递的信息量远远超过你用拇指打字能传递的。

20:18

Joe RoganSo what happened with you, where you decided or you took on a more fatalistic attitude? Like, was there any specific thing, or was it just the inevitability of our future?那你是在什么时候,出于什么原因,决定或者说转变成了这种宿命论的态度?有什么具体的事情吗,还是只是觉得我们的未来注定如此?

20:38

Elon MuskI tried to convince people to slow down, slow down AI, to regulate AI. This was futile. I tried for years.我试过劝说人们减速,放慢 AI 的发展,对 AI 进行监管。这是徒劳的。我努力了好几年。

20:51

Joe RoganThis is a scene nobody's seen in a movie. Robots are gonna fucking take over, and you're freaking me out, nobody listened.这是没人在电影里见过的场景。机器人要他妈的接管世界了,我在疯狂警告大家,没人听。

20:56

Elon MuskNobody listens, no one.没人听,没有人。

20:59

Joe RoganAre people more inclined to listen today? It seems like an issue that's brought up more often over the last few years than it was maybe five, ten years ago. It seemed like science fiction.现在人们更倾向于听了吗?这个话题过去几年似乎比五、十年前提得更多了。以前感觉像科幻小说。

21:10

Elon MuskMaybe they will. So far they haven't. I think people don't — normally, the way that regulations work, it's very slow.也许他们会听。目前为止还没有。我觉得人们不——通常监管的运作方式非常缓慢。

21:20

Joe RoganIt's very slow indeed.确实非常缓慢。

21:24

Elon MuskSo usually it'll be something — some new technology, it will cause damage or death. There will be an outcry, there will be an investigation, years will pass, there will be some sort of insight committee, there will be rule-making, then there will be oversight, eventually regulations. This all takes many years. This is the normal course of things. If you look at, say, automotive regulations — how long did it take for seat belts to be implemented, to be required? You know, the auto industry fought seat belts, I think, for more than a decade, successfully fought any regulations on seat belts, even though the numbers were extremely obvious. If you had a seat belt on, you would be far less likely to die or be seriously injured. It was unequivocal, and the industry fought this for years, successfully. Eventually, after many, many people died, regulators insisted on seat belts. This time frame is not relevant to AI. You can't take 10 years from the point which it's dangerous — it's too late.通常是这样的——某种新技术,它会造成损害或死亡。会有人大声疾呼,会有调查,会过好几年,会有某种调查委员会,然后会制定规则,然后会有监督,最终出来监管条例。这整个过程要花很多年。这是正常的规律。你看汽车监管——安全带花了多长时间才被推行强制执行?汽车行业为反对安全带打了超过十年的仗,成功地阻止了任何安全带监管,尽管数据非常明确。系了安全带,死亡和重伤的概率会大幅下降。这是无可争辩的,但行业多年来成功地抵制了。最终,在很多很多人死去之后,监管机构才坚持推行安全带。这个时间框架跟 AI 不适用。从它变得危险那一刻起,你没有 10 年的时间——那已经太迟了。

22:51

Joe RoganAnd you feel like this is decades away or years away from being too late, if you have this fatalistic attitude. And you feel like it's going — we're in almost like a doomsday countdown.你觉得如果你持这种宿命论态度,我们离太迟是几十年还是几年的事?你感觉我们几乎就像在末日倒计时里。

23:07

Elon MuskIt's not necessarily a doomsday countdown, it's an out-of-control countdown.这未必是末日倒计时,是失控倒计时。

23:12

Joe RoganOut of control.失控。

23:12

Elon MuskYeah, people call it the singularity. And that's probably the thing about it, is it's a singularity, it's hard to predict. Like a black hole, what happens past the event horizon.对,人们管它叫奇点(singularity)。这大概就是它的特点——它是一个奇点,很难预测。就像黑洞,穿过事件视界之后会发生什么,谁也说不清。

23:23

Joe RoganRight, so once it's implemented it's very different, because once it's out of the bottle, what's going to happen? And it will be able to improve itself.对,所以一旦实现,一切都会截然不同,因为一旦它从瓶子里出来,会发生什么?它将能够自我完善。

23:31

Elon MuskYes, that's where it gets spooky.对,那才是真正毛骨悚然的地方。

23:35

Joe RoganRight, the idea that it can do thousands of years of innovation very, very quickly.对,它能在极短时间内完成数千年的创新。

23:40

Elon MuskYeah, and then we'll be just ridiculous. We will be like this ridiculous biological shitting, pissing thing trying to stop the gods.对,到那时候我们就会变成笑话。我们会变成这种可笑的、会拉屎撒尿的生物,妄图阻止众神。

23:49

Joe RoganNo, stop. We like living with a finite lifespan and watching, you know, Norman Rockwell paintings.不,停。我们喜欢活在有限的寿命里,看 Norman Rockwell 的画。

23:59

Elon MuskIt could be terrible and it could be great. It's not clear. But one thing is for sure: we will not control it.可能很糟糕,也可能很美好。不好说。但有一件事是确定的:我们不会控制它。

24:07

Joe RoganDo you think that it's likely that we will merge somehow or another with this sort of technology, and it'll augment what we are now? Or do you think it will replace us?你觉得我们有没有可能以某种方式与这种技术融合,让它增强我们现在的能力?还是说它会取代我们?

24:23

Elon MuskWell, that's the scenario — the merge scenario with AI is the one that seems like probably the best, like for us. Yes, like, if you can't beat it, join it. So from a long-term existential standpoint, that's like the purpose of Neuralink: to create a high-bandwidth interface to the brain, such that we can be symbiotic with AI. Because we have a bandwidth problem, you just can't communicate through your fingers, it's too slow.嗯,融合这个方案——与 AI 融合的方案,对我们来说可能是最好的。就是,打不过就加入嘛。从长期生存的角度来看,这就是 Neuralink 的目的:创造一个与大脑的高带宽接口,让我们能与 AI 共生。因为我们有带宽问题,靠手指交流太慢了。

25:08

Joe RoganAnd where is Neuralink at right now?Neuralink 现在进展到哪里了?

25:13

Elon MuskI think we'll have something interesting to announce in a few months that's at least an order of magnitude better than anything else. Probably better than — I think probably better than anyone thinks is possible.我觉得几个月内我们会有一些有趣的东西可以宣布,比其他任何东西至少强一个数量级。可能比——我觉得可能比任何人认为可能达到的都要好。

25:22

Joe RoganHow much can you talk about that right now?这个你现在能说多少?

25:25

Elon MuskI don't want to jump the gun on that.我不想抢在发布前说太多。

25:28

Joe RoganBut what's like the ultimate — what's the idea behind it? Like what are you trying to accomplish with it? Like what would you like, best-case scenario?那终极目标是什么——这个东西背后的理念是什么?你想用它实现什么?你最理想的结果是什么?

25:35

Elon MuskI think best-case scenario, we effectively merge with AI, where AI serves as a tertiary cognition layer. Where we've got the limbic system, kind of the primitive brain essentially, you've got the cortex — so you're currently in a symbiotic relationship, your cortex and limbic system are in a symbiotic relationship. And generally people like their cortex and they like their limbic system. I haven't met anyone who wants to delete their limbic system or delete their cortex. Everybody seems to like both. And the cortex is mostly in service to the limbic system. People may think that their thinking part of themselves is in charge, but it's mostly their limbic system that's in charge, and the cortex is trying to make the limbic system happy. That's what most of that computing power is oriented towards: how can I make the limbic system happy? That's what it's trying to do. Now, if we do have a third layer, which is the AI extension of yourself, that is also symbiotic — and there's enough bandwidth between the cortex and the AI extension of yourself, such that the AI doesn't de facto separate — then that could be a good outcome. That could be quite a positive outcome for the future.我觉得最理想的结果是,我们实质上与 AI 融合,AI 作为第三层认知(tertiary cognition layer)存在。我们有边缘系统,也就是原始大脑,还有大脑皮层——所以你目前处于一种共生关系中,你的皮层和边缘系统处于共生关系。一般人们既喜欢自己的皮层,也喜欢自己的边缘系统。我没见过有人想删除自己的边缘系统或皮层。大家似乎都喜欢这两者。而皮层大部分时间都在服务于边缘系统。人们可能以为自己思考的那部分在掌舵,但实际上大多数时候是边缘系统在掌舵,皮层只是在试图让边缘系统满足。那大部分的算力都朝着这个方向:我怎么让边缘系统开心?这是它一直在尝试做的事情。现在,如果我们确实有第三层,也就是你自己的 AI 延伸,它也是共生的——而且皮层与你的 AI 延伸之间有足够的带宽,使得 AI 不会事实上脱离——那可能是一个好的结果。对未来来说,这可能是一个相当积极的结果。

27:03

Joe RoganSo instead of replacing us, it will radically change our capabilities.所以,不是取代我们,而是会从根本上改变我们的能力。

27:08

Elon MuskYes, it will enable anyone who wants to have superhuman cognition. Anyone who wants — this is not a matter of earning power, because your earning power would be vastly greater after you do it. So it's just like, anyone who wants can just do it, in theory. That's the theory. And if that's the case, then — and let's say billions of people do it — then the outcome for humanity will be the sum of human will, the sum of billions of people's desire for the future.是的,它将让任何想拥有超人认知能力的人都能拥有。任何想要的人——这不是一个赚钱能力的问题,因为做了这件事之后你的赚钱能力会大幅提升。所以就是,理论上,任何想要的人都可以做。这是理论。如果真的是这样,那么——假设数十亿人都这样做——那么人类的命运将是人类意志的总和,是数十亿人对未来渴望的总和。

27:56

Joe RoganBillions of people with enhanced cognitive ability.数十亿人拥有增强的认知能力。

27:59

Elon MuskRadically enhanced, yes.大幅增强,是的。

28:02

Joe RoganHow much different than people today? Like if you had to explain it to a person who didn't really understand what you were saying, how much different are you talking about? When you say radically improve, like what do you mean? You mean mind reading?跟今天的人类会有多大的差别?如果你要向一个不太理解你说的话的人解释,你说的差别有多大?当你说大幅提升,你是什么意思?你是说读心术吗?

28:18

Elon MuskIt will be difficult to really appreciate the difference. It's kind of like, how much smarter are you with a phone or computer than without? It's — you're vastly smarter, actually. You know, you can answer any question if you connect to the internet. You can answer any question pretty much instantly, any calculation. Your phone's memory is essentially perfect. You can remember flawlessly — your phone can remember videos, pictures, and everything perfectly. So your phone is already an extension of you. You're already a cyborg. Most people don't realize they are already a cyborg. That phone is an extension of yourself.这个差别其实很难真正体会到。有点像,你有了手机或电脑之后,和没有之前相比,你聪明了多少?实际上——你要聪明得多。你知道,只要连上互联网,任何问题你都能回答。几乎任何问题,几乎瞬间就能回答,任何计算都行。你手机的记忆基本上是完美的。你可以完美记忆——你的手机可以完美地记住视频、照片、一切。所以你的手机已经是你的延伸了。你已经是一个控制论生命(cyborg)了。大多数人没意识到他们已经是控制论生命了。那部手机就是你自身的延伸。

29:07

Elon MuskIt's just that the data rate, the rate of communication between you and the cybernetic extension of yourself that is your phone and computer, is slow. It's very slow. And it's like a tiny straw of information flow between your biological self and your digital self. And we need to make that tiny straw like a giant river. A huge, high-bandwidth interface. It's an interface problem, a data rate problem. Solve the data rate problem, then I think we can hang on to human-machine symbiosis through the long term. And then people may decide that they want to retain their biological self or not. I think they'll probably choose to retain their biological self, versus some sort of Ray Kurzweil scenario where they download themselves into a computer. You will be essentially snapshotted into a computer at any time. If your biological self dies, you could probably just upload into a new unit, literally.只是数据速率,就是你和你的控制论延伸——也就是你的手机和电脑——之间的通信速度太慢了。非常慢。就像在你的生物自我和你的数字自我之间,只有一根细细的信息流吸管。我们需要把这根细吸管变成一条大河。一个巨大的、高带宽的接口。这是一个接口问题,一个数据速率问题。解决数据速率问题,那我觉得我们就能在长期维持人机共生关系。然后人们可能会决定自己是否想保留生物自我。我觉得他们可能会选择保留生物自我,而不是搞什么 Ray Kurzweil 那种情景,把自己下载到计算机里。你随时可以把自己快照备份到计算机里。如果你的生物自我死了,你大概就直接上传到一个新的载体里,字面意义上的。

30:22

Joe RoganPass that whiskey, we're getting crazy over here. This is getting ridiculous. Down the rabbit hole. Grab that sucker, give me some of that. This is too freaky.把那瓶威士忌递过来,我们在这里要疯了。这越来越离谱了。掉进兔子洞里了。拿过来,给我来点。太吓人了。

30:33

Elon MuskSee, I've been thinking about this for a long time.看吧,这些我想了很久了。

30:34

Joe RoganBy the way, I believe you have.顺便说一句,我相信你。

30:36

Elon MuskIf I was talking to one — cheers, by the way.如果我当时在跟一个——干杯,顺便说一句。

30:38

Joe RoganCheers. Hey, this is a great whiskey, thank you. I know where this came from. Who brought this to us? Trying to remember, somebody gave it to us. Old Camp — whoever it was, thanks. Yeah, it is good. So this is just inevitable, again going back to when you decided to have this fatalistic viewpoint. So you tried to warn people, you talked about this pretty extensively — I've read several interviews where you talked about this — and then you just sort of said, okay, it just is. Let's just — and in a way, you, by communicating the potential fear, I mean for sure you're getting the warning out to some people.干杯。嘿,这威士忌真好,谢谢。我知道这是哪来的。谁带来的?想不起来了,有人送给我们的。Old Camp——不管是谁,谢谢。是挺好喝的。所以这就是不可避免的,再说回你决定持这种宿命论观点的时候。你试着警告大家,你就这个话题做了相当多的表达——我读过好几篇你谈过这个的采访——然后你就说了,好吧,就这样吧。让我们——而且从某种意义上说,你通过传达这种潜在的恐惧,我的意思是你肯定向一些人发出了警告。

31:15

Elon MuskYeah, yeah. I mean, I was really going on the warning quite a lot. I was warning everyone I could. I even met with Obama, and just for one reason, like, just to talk about AI.是的,是的。我是真的大力发出警告。我警告了所有我能警告的人。我甚至专门去见了 Obama,就是为了一件事,就是专门谈 AI。

31:33

Joe RoganYes. And what did he say? So what about Hillary, worry about her first? Shh, everybody crying. No.是的。他怎么说?先担心 Hillary 吧,先操心她?嘘,都别哭了。不是的。

31:40

Elon MuskHe listened, he certainly listened. I met with Congress, I was at a meeting of all 50 governors and talked about just AI danger. And I talked to everyone I could. No one seemed to realize where this was going.他听了,他确实听了。我也去见了国会,参加了一个全部 50 位州长都在场的会议,专门谈 AI 的危险。我见了所有我能见的人。没有人似乎意识到这件事会走向哪里。

32:05

Joe RoganIs it that, or do they just assume that someone smarter than them has already taken care of it? Because when people hear about something like AI, it's almost abstract. It's almost so hard to wrap your head around it that by the time it already happens, it'll be too late, yeah.是这样吗,还是说他们只是以为有比他们更聪明的人已经处理好了?因为当人们听到 AI 这类话题时,它几乎是抽象的。几乎很难让大脑真正理解,等到它真的发生的时候,就已经太晚了,是的。

32:23

Elon MuskI think they didn't quite understand it, or didn't think it was near-term, or weren't sure what to do about it. When I said, like, you know, an obvious thing to do is to just establish a committee, a government committee to gain insight, you know, before you do oversight, before you make regulations, they should try to understand what's going on. And then, if you have an insight committee, then once they learn what's going on, get up to speed, then they can make maybe some rules, or propose some rules.我觉得他们对此了解不够,或者没觉得这是近期的事,或者不确定该怎么办。我说,你知道,一个显而易见的做法是成立一个委员会,一个政府委员会来进行调研——在做监督之前,在制定监管条例之前,先努力了解发生了什么。如果有了一个调研委员会,当他们弄清楚发生了什么、跟上进展之后,就可以制定一些规则,或者提出一些规则建议。

33:02

Joe RoganAnd that would be probably a safer way to go about things, it seems. I mean, I know that it's probably something that the government's supposed to handle, but it seems like I wouldn't want the government to handle this.这可能是一种更稳妥的处理方式,感觉上是这样。我是说,我知道这可能是政府应该处理的事,但我感觉我不想让政府来处理这件事。

33:15

Elon MuskWho do you want to? I want you to handle it.那你想让谁来?我想让你来处理。

33:16

Joe RoganOh geez. Yeah, I feel like you're the one who could ring the bell better, because if Mike Pence starts talking about, hey, I'm like, shut up, fuck you, you don't know anything about AI. Come on man, he doesn't know what he's talking about.哦天哪。对,我感觉你才是那个能更好地敲响警钟的人,因为如果 Mike Pence 开始谈,嘿,我就会,闭嘴,操你的,你对 AI 什么都不懂。得了吧,他根本不知道他在说什么。

33:27

Elon MuskBut I don't have the power to regulate other companies. What am I supposed to do?但我没有能力监管其他公司。我能怎么办?

33:32

Joe RoganRight, but maybe companies could agree. Maybe there could be some sort of a — there's, we have agreements where you're not supposed to dump toxic waste into the ocean, you're not supposed to do certain things that could be terribly damaging even though they'd be profitable. Maybe this is one of those things. Maybe you should realize that you can't hit the switch on something that's going to be able to think for itself and make up its own mind as to whether or not it wants to survive or not, and whether or not it thinks you're a threat, and whether or not it thinks you're useless. Like, why do I keep this dumb finite life form alive? Why keep this thing around, it's just stupid, it just keeps polluting everything, it's shit everywhere it goes, lighting everything on fire and shooting each other. Why would I keep this stupid thing alive?对,但也许公司们可以达成协议。也许可以有某种——我们有禁止向海洋倾倒有毒废物的协议,有禁止某些可能造成严重破坏却有利可图的事情的规定。也许这是其中之一。也许应该意识到,你不能随随便便按下某个开关,启动一个能够自主思考、能自己决定是否想活下去、能自己决定是否觉得你是威胁、能自己决定是否觉得你没有用的东西。比如说,我为什么要让这个愚蠢的有限生命体活着?为什么要留着这个东西,它就是个蠢东西,到处污染,到处排泄,把什么都点着,还互相射杀。我为什么要让这个蠢东西活着?

34:15

Elon MuskBecause sometimes it makes good music, you know, sometimes it makes great movies, sometimes it makes beautiful art, and sometimes it's cool to hang out with.因为它有时候会创作出好音乐,有时候会拍出很棒的电影,有时候会创作出美丽的艺术,而且有时候跟它相处挺好玩的。

34:24

Joe RoganLike, yeah, all those reasons, yeah. For us those are great reasons.对,所有这些原因,是的。对我们来说这些都是很好的理由。

34:27

Elon MuskYes, but for anything objective standing outside, like, oh, this is definitely a flawed system. This is like if you went to the jungle and you watch these chimps engage in warfare and beat each other with — they're really mean, fucking mean, they're really mean.是的,但从任何客观的外部视角来看,哦,这明显是一个有缺陷的系统。就像你走进丛林,看着这些黑猩猩互相开战,用——它们真的很凶残,他妈的凶残,真的很凶残。

34:38

Joe RoganI saw that movie Chimpanzee. Yeah, I thought it was gonna be like some Disney thing. Like, holy cow.我看过那部《黑猩猩》(Chimpanzee)电影。是的,我以为会像迪士尼那种东西。然后,我的天哪。

34:41

Elon MuskWhat movie was that?那是什么电影?

34:42

Joe RoganIt's literally called Chimpanzee.就叫《黑猩猩》(Chimpanzee)。

34:44

Elon MuskIs it a documentary?是纪录片吗?

34:45

Joe RoganYeah, yeah, it's kind of like a documentary. I was like, damn, these chimps are mean. They're mean.对,对,有点像纪录片。我就在想,妈的,这些黑猩猩真的很凶残。它们真的很凶残。

34:51

Elon MuskYeah, they're cruel. Yeah, they're calculated.是的,它们很残忍。是的,它们是有预谋的。

34:55

Joe RoganYeah, yeah, they sneak up on each other and like — I didn't realize chimps did calculated cruelty.是啊,它们会偷袭对方,然后——我之前没意识到黑猩猩会有预谋地残忍。

34:59

Elon MuskMm-hmm, yeah, that's pretty — I left that meeting kind of thinking, whoa, this is dark.嗯,是的,这挺——我离开那次会议的时候心里想,哇,这太黑暗了。

35:07

Joe RoganRight, well we know better because we've advanced, but if we hadn't, we'd be like, man, I don't want to fucking live in a house, I like the chimp ways, bro. Chimp ways to go. This is it, man, chimp life.对,因为我们进化了所以我们懂得更多,但如果没有进化,我们就会说,我可不想住在房子里,我喜欢黑猩猩的方式,老兄。黑猩猩的方式才是王道。就这么着,黑猩猩的生活。

35:20

Elon MuskI know, but in a way to the AI we might be like those chimps. I'm like, these stupid fucks launching missiles out of drones and shooting each other under water, like, we're crazy. We got torpedoes and submarines and shit, airplanes that drop nuclear bombs indiscriminately on cities. We're fucked.我知道,但从某种意义上说,对 AI 来说我们可能就像那些黑猩猩。我想,这些蠢货在用无人机发射导弹互相攻击,在水下互相射击,简直疯了。我们有鱼雷、潜水艇这些玩意儿,还有飞机对城市无差别投掷核弹。我们真的完蛋了。

35:43

Joe RoganYeah, they might go, why are they doing this? It might like look at our politics, look at what we do in terms of our food system, what kind of food we force down each other's throats, and they might go, these people are crazy, they don't even look out for themselves.是的,它们可能会想,它们为什么这样做?它们可能会审视我们的政治,看看我们的食品体系,看看我们往对方喉咙里灌什么样的食物,然后它们可能会说,这些人是疯子,他们连照顾好自己都做不到。

35:59

Elon MuskI don't know, I mean, how much do we think about chimps? Not much, very little. It's like these chimps are at war, these like little — it's like groups of chimps just attack each other and they kill each other and they torture each other.我不知道,我是说,我们有多少时间想着黑猩猩?没多少,极少。就像那些黑猩猩在打仗,这些小——就是一群群黑猩猩互相攻击,互相残杀,互相折磨。

36:13

Joe RoganThat's pretty bad. They hunt monkeys.这挺可怕的。它们还会猎杀猴子。

36:18

Elon MuskThey're — but like this is probably the most — that's, you know, I mean, when's the last time you talked about chimps?它们——但就像,这可能是最——你知道,你上次谈到黑猩猩是什么时候?

36:27

Joe RoganMe? Yeah, all the time. You do? Talking to them, okay. Fucking podcast, dude. Okay, people are laughing right now. Yeah, constantly, I'm obsessed. I saw that David Attenborough documentary on chimps where they were eating those colobus monkeys and ripping them apart. I saw that many, many years ago, it just changed how I — oh, this is why people are so crazy, we came from that thing.我吗?是的,随时都在谈。真的?在跟它们说话,好的。这他妈是个播客,老兄。好,现在大家应该都在笑了。是的,不停地谈,我很痴迷。我看过 David Attenborough 那部关于黑猩猩的纪录片,里面它们在吃那些疣猴,把它们撕碎。很多年前看的,彻底改变了我的看法——哦,这就是为什么人这么疯狂,我们是从那个东西进化来的。

36:50

Elon MuskYeah, exactly. Yeah, and there's the — yeah, they got like better philosophy, yeah, they're like swingers.是的,确实。是的,还有——是的,它们有更好的哲学,是的,它们就像换妻族一样。

36:56

Joe RoganYeah, yeah, they really are. They seem to be way more even than us, way more civilized. They just seem to resolve everything with sex. Yeah, the only rules they have is the mom won't bang the son, that's it.是的,是的,它们真的是。它们看起来比我们平和得多,文明得多。它们似乎用性来解决一切问题。是的,它们唯一的规矩就是妈妈不跟儿子上,就这一条。

37:10

Elon MuskOkay, that's it, mom won't bang her sons.好的,就这一条,妈妈不跟儿子睡。

37:14

Joe RoganThey're good women. Yeah, good women in the bonobo community, everybody else just banging it out.都是好女人。是的,倭黑猩猩(bonobo)社区里的好女人,其他人就随便搞。

37:19

Elon MuskYeah, I haven't seen the bonobo movie.是的,我还没看过关于倭黑猩猩的电影。

37:24

Joe RoganWell, they're disturbing. Just at a zoo, you know, you have bonobos at the zoo, they're just constantly going, constantly fucking, yeah, that's all they do, they just won't stop. Yeah, and they don't care, gay, straight, whatever, let's just — fuck these labels.嗯,它们挺令人不安的。就在动物园里,你知道,动物园有倭黑猩猩,它们就是不停地搞,不停地搞,是的,那就是它们唯一做的事,就是停不下来。是的,它们也不在乎,同性、异性,管他呢,我们就——别管这些标签了。

37:38

Elon MuskI haven't seen bonobos at the zoo.我在动物园没见过倭黑猩猩。

37:39

Joe RoganIt's probably like nothing, nothing, not in the PG section. Yeah, I don't think they have them at many zoos. We've looked at it before, it's probably pretty awkward. I think that's the thing, they like to keep regular chimps at zoos because bonobos are just always jacking off.估计是属于少儿不宜那种,不会放在适合全年龄段的区域。对,我觉得很多动物园都没有。我们之前研究过,应该挺尴尬的。我觉得原因就在这儿——他们宁愿养普通黑猩猩,因为倭黑猩猩随时随地都在手淫。

37:52

Elon MuskYeah.是啊。

37:52

JamieThey're in San Diego, San Diego's got some.圣地亚哥有,圣地亚哥动物园养了一些。

37:54

Joe RoganYet really, interesting. Probably separate them. Yeah, I mean, how many are in a cage, you know? It's gonna be pretty intense. Yeah, yeah. We're a weird thing, you know, and I've often wondered whether or not — you know, our ultimate goal is to give birth to some new thing, and that's why we're so obsessed with technology, because it's not like this technology is — I mean, it's certainly enhancing our lives in a certain way, but is — I mean, ultimately, is it making people happier? Right now most technology I would say no. In fact, you and I were talking about social media before this, about just not having Instagram on your phone and not dealing — you feel better.哦,真的,有意思。可能会单独隔开。我是说,关在一起能有多少只?那场面肯定挺刺激的。是啊,是啊。我们人类是个奇怪的东西,你知道吗,我经常在想,我们终极的目标到底是不是孕育出某种新生事物,所以我们才对科技这么痴迷——因为科技本身并不像是……我是说,它固然在某种程度上提升了我们的生活,但最终,它真的让人更幸福了吗?现在大多数科技,我认为答案是否定的。事实上,你和我录播之前还在聊社交媒体,聊到把 Instagram 从手机上删掉、不去管它——你感觉好多了。

38:34

Elon MuskYes. I think that one of the issues with social media that's been pointed out by many people is that — I think maybe particularly Instagram — people look like they have a much better life than they really do, right? So by design, yeah, people are posting pictures of when they're really happy, they're modifying those pictures to be better looking. Even if they're not modifying the pictures, they're at least selecting the pictures for the best lighting, the best angle. So people basically seem — they're way better looking than they basically really are, right? And they're way happier seeming than they really are. So if you look at everyone on Instagram, you might think, man, they're all these happy beautiful people, and I'm not that good looking and I'm not happy, so I'm a suck, you know, and that's gonna make you feel sad. So when in fact those people you think are super happy actually not that happy, some of them are really depressed, they're very sad. Some of the happiest seeming people actually some of the saddest people in reality.是的。我认为社交媒体被很多人指出的一个问题是——我觉得 Instagram 尤其如此——人们看起来过得比实际上好得多,对吧?本来就是这么设计的,人们会在自己最开心的时候发照片,还会修图让自己更好看。就算没有修图,他们至少也会挑光线最好、角度最佳的那张。所以人们看起来——其实远比他们真实的样子好看,也远比他们实际上更幸福。如果你刷 Instagram 上的所有人,可能会觉得,天哪,这些人全都又开心又漂亮,而我长得不够好看、也不够快乐,所以我很差劲,这样就会让你很难过。但事实上,你以为超级快乐的那些人,并没有那么快乐,他们中有些人其实非常抑郁、非常悲伤。一些看起来最幸福的人,现实中有时候是最悲伤的人。

39:50

Elon MuskAnd nobody looks good all the time, doesn't matter who you are.没有人能时时刻刻都好看,不管你是谁都一样。

39:56

Joe RoganNo, it's not even something you should want. Why do you want to look great all the time?不,而且你也不该有这种追求。你为什么要一直保持好看?

40:01

Elon MuskYeah, exactly. So I think things like that can make people quite sad just by comparison, because you sort of — people generally think of themselves relative to others. We are constantly re-baselining our expectations. And you can see this, say if you watch some show like Naked and Afraid, or you know, if you just go and try living in the woods by yourself for a while, you're like, civilization is quite great. It has a lot, it's a lot.对,就是这样。所以我觉得这类东西可能会让人因为比较而相当难过,因为人通常是相对于他人来衡量自己的。我们在不断地重新校准自己的预期。你可以看出这一点,比如你去看《赤裸求生》那类节目,或者去尝试在丛林里独自生活一段时间,你就会觉得,文明真的太伟大了。它有太多东西,真的太多了。

40:36

Joe RoganPeople want to come back to civilization pretty fast on Naked and Afraid. Wasn't that a Thoreau quote, the comparison is a thief of joy?《赤裸求生》里的人都很快就想回到文明社会。那句"比较是快乐的窃贼"不是梭罗说的吗?

40:45

Elon MuskYeah, well, if happiness is reality minus expectations.是啊,而且如果快乐等于现实减去预期的话——

40:51

Joe RoganThat's great too, but the comparison is a thief of joy really holds true to people. Is it Theodore Roosevelt? Roosevelt, fascinating. And when you're thinking about Instagram, because what essentially Instagram is with a lot of people is you're giving them the opportunity to be their own PR agent, and they always go towards the glamorous, you know, and when anybody does show, you know, hashtag no filter — I don't know if they really do do that, like, oh, you're so brave, look at you, no makeup, you know.这也很精辟,但"比较是快乐的窃贼"这句话真的很适用于人。是西奥多·罗斯福说的?罗斯福,太有意思了。说到 Instagram——它对很多人来说,本质上就是给了他们机会去充当自己的公关,而他们永远都朝着最光鲜的方向走。但有时候有人贴出"#no filter"的照片——我不知道他们是真的这样,哦你太勇了,素颜上镜。

41:17

Elon MuskYeah, they look good anyway.是啊,反正他们本来就好看。

41:21

Joe RoganYou look great, what are you doing? Oh my god, you don't have makeup on, you still look hot as fuck. You know what you're doing. I know what you're doing too. They're letting you know, and then they're feeding off that comment section, sitting there like it's a fresh stream of love, like you're getting right up to the source as it comes out of the earth and you're sucking — that's a lot of emojis.你看起来棒极了,你在干什么?我的天,你没化妆,依然性感得要命。你心里明白得很。我也看穿你了。她们就是让你知道她有多自然,然后泡在评论区里如同汲取爱的泉源,就像你走到大自然最原始的水源边猛喝——那么多表情包。

41:40

Elon MuskA lot of emojis, emojis, yeah, a lot of emojis.太多表情包了,表情包啊,是的,好多表情包。

41:45

Joe RoganMy concern is not so much what Instagram is, is that I didn't think that people had the need for this or the expectation for some sort of technology that allows them to constantly get love and adulation from strangers and comments and this ability to project this sort of distorted version of who you really are. But I worry about where it goes, like what's the next one? What's the next one? Like, where is it — is it going to be augmented to some sort of a weird augmented or virtual sort of Instagram type situation where you're not going to want to live in this real world, you're going to want to interface with this sort of world that you've created through your social media page? Some next level thing.我担心的与其说是 Instagram 本身是什么,不如说是我没料到人们会有这种需求,或者说会产生这种期待——需要某种技术让他们能持续不断地从陌生人那里获得爱和崇拜、评论,以及这种投射出扭曲自我形象的能力。但我担心的是它接下来会走向哪里,下一个是什么?再下一个又是什么?它会不会演变成某种奇异的增强现实或虚拟现实版 Instagram?到那时你会不想活在真实世界里,只想沉浸在你通过社交媒体页面构建的那个世界?某种更高层次的东西。

42:23

Elon MuskYeah, go live in the simulation.是啊,直接去活在模拟世界里。

42:26

Joe RoganYeah, I mean, in the simulation, some Ready Player One type shit. That's real, that seems — we have that HTC Vive here, and I've only done it a couple times quite honestly because it kind of freaks me out. Sure. My kids fucking love it, man, they love it, they love playing these weirdo games and walking around with that headset on, but part of me watching them do it goes, wow, I wonder if this is like the precursor. Just sort of like if you look at that phone that Gordon Gekko had on the beach — yeah, big cell phone — you compare that to like a Galaxy Note 9, how the fuck did that become that? Right, and I wonder when I see this HTC Vive, I'm like, what is that thing going to be 10 years from now when we're making fun of what it is now? What is it? How ingrained and how connected and interconnected is this technology going to be in our life?对,活在模拟里,《头号玩家》那种东西。这可是真实存在的,感觉……我们这里就有一套 HTC Vive,说实话我只用过几次,因为它有点让我发毛。我懂。我的孩子们可爱死它了,他们超爱它,喜欢带着那个头显到处走、玩那些奇奇怪怪的游戏,但我看着他们这样,内心有一部分在想,哇,这会不会就是某种前兆——就好像你看着 Gordon Gekko 在海滩上用的那部手机——是的,大砖头手机——再和 Galaxy Note 9 比一下,那东西到底是怎么变成这个的?对吧。然后我看着这台 HTC Vive 心想,10 年后这玩意儿会变成什么?到时候我们一定会嘲笑它现在的样子。它会是什么?这项技术将在多大程度上、以多深的方式嵌入并交织进我们的生活?

43:21

Elon MuskIt will be at some point indistinguishable from reality, where we'll lose this — we lose this, like you and I are just looking at each other through our eyes.它有朝一日会与现实无法区分,到那时候我们会失去这种——我们会失去就像你我现在用眼睛互相看着对方这样的状态。

43:28

Joe RoganI see where you see me, I think, I hope. You think? So I think you probably have regular eyes.我看到的你就是你真实的样子,我想,我希望如此。你认为呢?所以我觉得你大概有一双普通的眼睛吧。

43:36

Elon MuskThis could be some simulation.这有可能是某个模拟。

43:38

Joe RoganIt could. Do you entertain that?有可能。你会认真想这件事吗?

43:43

Elon MuskWell, the argument for the simulation I think is quite strong, because if you assume any improvements at all over time — any improvement, one percent, point one percent — just extend the time frame, make it a thousand years, a million years. The universe is 13.8 billion years old. What would a civilization — if you counted, if you're very generous, civilization is maybe seven or eight thousand years old if you count it from the first writing. This is nothing. So if you assume any rate of improvement at all, then games will be indistinguishable from reality, or civilization will end. One of those two things will occur. Therefore we are most likely in a simulation.嗯,我认为支持模拟论的论点相当有力,因为只要你假设随着时间推移存在任何程度的改进——任何改进,哪怕 1%、0.1%——只需把时间轴拉长,延伸到一千年、一百万年。宇宙已经有 138 亿年历史了。而一个文明——如果从最早的文字算起,非常慷慨地说,人类文明大概只有七八千年。这根本算不了什么。所以如果你假设存在任何程度的进步,那么游戏最终将与现实无法区分,或者文明将会终结——这两件事必然有一件会发生。因此,我们最有可能活在一个模拟里。

44:41

Joe RoganOr we're on our way to one, right? Well, just because we exist, we could most certainly be on the road — we could be on the road to that. Right, it doesn't mean that it has to be reality. It could be in base reality. We could be here now on our way to the road, or on our way to the destination where this can never happen again, where we are completely ingrained in some sort of an artificial technology or some sort of a symbiotic relationship with the internet or the next level of sharing information, but right now we're not there yet. That's possible too, right? It's possible that a simulation is one day going to be inevitable, that we're going to have something that's indistinguishable from regular reality, but maybe we're not there yet. That's also possible. So we're not quite there yet, that this is real. When I touch that, it feels very real.或者说我们正走在通往模拟的路上,对吧?因为我们的存在本身,就足以说明我们极有可能走在那条路上——走向那个目的地。这并不意味着现实一定已经是那样了。我们现在或许活在基础现实里,正走在通往那个目标的路上,或者走向一个"模拟永远无法发生"的终结——我们彻底融入某种人工技术,或者与互联网、下一代信息共享方式建立某种共生关系,但我们现在还没到那一步。这也是可能的,对吧?模拟有朝一日可能是不可避免的,我们终究会造出与现实无法区分的东西,但也许我们现在还没到那一步。这同样是可能的。所以我们现在可能还在真实里。当我碰这个东西,感觉非常真实。

45:29

Joe RoganMaybe that's why everybody's like into like mason jars and shit, amazing suede shoes. People are going to like craft restaurants and they want raw wood, everyone says — everyone wants to see metal. It seems like people are like longing towards some weird log cabin type nostalgia reality, yeah, like holding on, like clinging, just dragging their nails through the mud like, don't take me yet.这也许就是为什么每个人都迷上了梅森罐子和超厚麂皮鞋之类的东西。人们涌向手工餐厅,要裸露的原木,大家都想要金属质感。感觉人们在渴望某种奇怪的小木屋式的怀旧真实感,像在死死抓住,用指甲扒着泥土,"别把我带走。"

45:51

Elon MuskYes, but then people go get a mason jar with a wine stem or a handle. That's dark.是的,但然后他们转身去买一个带酒杯脚或者把手的梅森罐子。这太黑暗了。

46:00

Joe RoganMakes me lose faith in humanity, wine stem and a handle. They have those?让我对人类失去信心,酒杯脚加把手。真有这种东西?

46:01

Elon MuskYes. Oh, those dirty people. That's just bullshit.有。哦,那些无耻的家伙。这纯粹就是扯淡。

46:05

Joe RoganThat's like people make pet rocks. Right, some people are just fucks, they take advantage of our generous nature.就像那些卖宠物石头的人一样。对,有些人就是混蛋,专门利用我们善良的本性。

46:11

Elon MuskIt was made with a wine stem, made with a handle, they made it that way. Yes. So it wasn't like, well, on to the mason — ah, that would be fine if there was — they glued it on or something.它就是这样造出来的——带着酒杯脚、带着把手,出厂就是这样。是的。所以并不是说,好吧,凑合用个梅森罐……那还情有可原——如果是后来粘上去的或者什么的话。

46:28

Joe RoganWhite trash chic. Oh, this is disgusting, look at this, it is right there. Yep, this is terrible. Yeah, that's like fake breasts that are designed to be hard, like fake breasts from the 60s.白人穷人时尚。哦,太恶心了,看这个,就在这儿。对,这太可怕了。是啊,就像 60 年代那种设计成硬邦邦的假乳一样。

46:45

Elon MuskIt's like if you're really along for the ones with ripples.就像如果你真的要玩,就得玩带波纹的那种。

46:46

Joe RoganHere we go. Yeah, that's almost what that is, yeah.好了好了。是啊,差不多就是那个意思,是的。

46:52

Elon MuskWhat are you going to do, man? There's nothing — you know, the one thing you do, you stop certain terrible ideas from propagating. Yeah. Anyway, I don't — sorry, I don't want to make things seem too dark, because I think you kind of have to be optimistic about the future. There's no point in being pessimistic, it's just too negative, it doesn't help. You know, I think you want to be — I mean, my theory is like, you'd rather be optimistic, I think I'd rather be optimistic and wrong than pessimistic and right.你能怎么办,兄弟?没什么——你知道,你唯一能做的事就是阻止某些糟糕的想法蔓延开来。是啊。不管怎样,我不——抱歉,我不想让一切显得太阴暗,因为我觉得你必须对未来保持乐观。悲观主义没有任何意义,它太消极了,没有任何帮助。我觉得你应该……我的理论是,我宁可乐观而犯错,也不要悲观而说对。

47:28

Joe RoganRight, at least err on that side, right. Yeah, because if you're pessimistic it's going to be miserable. Yeah, nobody wants to be around you anyway. If it's the end of the world, you're like, I told you, bro, yeah, the world's ending. Yeah, it is what it is. For all — I mean, enjoy the journey, right? If you really want to get morose, I mean, it is what it is for all of us anyway, we're all going to go, unless something changes.对,至少要往乐观那边偏。是的,因为如果你悲观,日子会很难过。反正也没人想跟你在一起。就算世界真的末日了,你说"我早就告诉你了,兄弟",对,世界要完了。是什么就是什么。我是说,享受这段旅程吧,对吧?如果你真的想钻牛角尖,我们所有人最终都会走的,除非有什么改变。

47:55

Elon MuskYeah, I mean, ultimately, you know, even if we just sort of existed as humans forever, we'd still eventually be like the heat death of the universe, right, a zillion years from now. Right, even if we get past the sun, if we figure out a way past the sun, running out of juice eventually, it's going to end, it's just a question of when.是啊,我是说,就算我们就这样作为人类永远存在下去,最终还是会面临宇宙的热寂,对吧,不知多少亿年之后。就算我们能熬过太阳燃尽,就算我们找到办法绕过这一关,能量最终也会耗尽,它终究会结束,只是时间早晚的问题。

48:16

Joe RoganRight, so it really is all about the journey. Or transcendence from whatever we are now into something that doesn't worry about death.对,所以归根结底,确实是过程本身最重要。或者超越我们现在的形态,进化成某种不再担忧死亡的存在。

48:27

Elon MuskThe universe as we know it will dissipate into a fine mist of cold nothingness eventually.我们所知的宇宙,最终会消散成一片冰冷虚无的细雾。

48:36

Joe RoganAnd then someone's going to bottle it and put a fragrance to it, sell it to French people in another dimension.然后某个人会把它装进瓶子里,加上香水,在另一个维度卖给法国人。

48:42

Elon MuskIt's just a very long time, so I think it's really just about how can we make it last longer.这只是时间非常非常漫长的问题,所以我觉得核心就在于,我们怎样才能让它持续更久。

48:46

Joe RoganAre you a proponent of the multi-universes theory? Do you believe that there are many, many universes and that even if this one fades out that there's other ones that are starting fresh right now, and there's an infinite number of them, and they're just constantly in this never-ending cycle of birth and death?你支持多元宇宙理论吗?你相信存在无数个宇宙,就算这个宇宙消亡,也有其他宇宙正在全新诞生,数量无穷无尽,一直处于这种生生死死的永恒循环之中?

49:08

Elon MuskI think most likely this is just about probability. There are many, many simulations. These simulations — you might as well call them reality, or you could call them multiverse.我认为这在很大程度上只是个概率问题。有无数个模拟存在。这些模拟——你完全可以把它们叫做现实,也可以叫做多元宇宙。

49:18

Joe RoganThese simulations you believe are created, like someone has manufactured running on the substrate.你说的这些模拟是被人创造出来的,是某个人在某种基底上运行制造的。

49:26

Elon MuskSo that substrate is probably boring.所以那个基底可能相当无聊。

49:29

Joe RoganBoring, how so?无聊?怎么说?

49:30

Elon MuskWell, when we create a simulation, like a game or a movie, it's a distillation of what's interesting about life. You know, it takes a year to shoot an action movie, and then that's all slowed down into two or three hours. So let me tell you, if you see an action movie being filmed, it's freaking boring, super boring. It takes — there's like lots of takes, there's everything's in a green screen, looks pretty goofy, doesn't look cool. But once you add the CGI and have great editing, it's amazing. So I think most likely, if we're a simulation, it's really boring outside the simulation, because why would you make a simulation that's boring? You make a simulation way more interesting than the base reality.好,当我们创造一个模拟,比如游戏或电影,它是生活中有趣部分的提炼与精华。你知道,拍一部动作片要花一年时间,然后把那一切浓缩成两三个小时。所以告诉你,如果你去看一部动作片的拍摄现场,那是极其无聊的,超级无聊。要拍很多条,全是绿幕,看起来挺滑稽,一点都不酷。但加上 CGI 和精良剪辑之后,就太惊艳了。所以我认为,如果我们是一个模拟,那么模拟之外的世界很可能极其无聊——因为你为什么要创造一个无聊的模拟?你会把模拟做得比基础现实有趣得多。

50:26

Joe RoganThat is, if this right now is a simulation.那是在假设我们现在所处的就是一个模拟的情况下。

50:28

Elon MuskYes.是的。

50:30

Joe RoganAnd ultimately, inevitably, as long as we don't die or get hit by a meteor, we're going to create some sort of simulation if we continue on the same technological path where we're on right now. Yes, but we might not be there yet, so it might not be a simulation here.而且最终,只要我们不死于小行星撞击之类的灾难,只要我们沿着现在的科技路径走下去,我们就必然会创造出某种模拟。是的,但我们也许还没到那一步,所以这里可能还不是模拟。

50:46

Elon MuskBut it most likely is.但大概率已经是了。

50:46

Joe RoganYou feel other places — this notion of place or where is a flawed —你觉得关于"位置"或者"在哪里"这种概念,本身就是有缺陷的——

50:55

Elon MuskYes, flawed. Like, if you have this sort of that Vive, you know, which — that's made by Valve, and it's really Valve that made it. HTC did the hardware, but it's really a Valve thing. Makers of Half-Life, yes.是的,有缺陷。就像,如果你有那个 Vive——那个东西其实是 Valve 做的,真正的主导者是 Valve。HTC 做的硬件,但核心是 Valve 的。《半条命》的开发商,没错。

51:13

Joe RoganWow, great company.哇,了不起的公司。

51:18

Elon MuskGreat company. When you're in that — in your virtual reality, which is only going to get better, where are you? Where are you really?了不起的公司。当你在那个虚拟现实里——而且它只会越来越好——你在哪里?你真正在哪里?

51:37

Joe RoganRight, you aren't anywhere. Well, where is the computer? What defines where you are?对,你无处可在。那电脑在哪?什么定义了你身处何处?

51:41

Elon MuskExactly, right? It's your perception.就是这样,对吧?是你的感知。

51:44

Joe RoganIs it your perception, or is it, you know, a scale that we have under your butt? You're right here, I've measured you, you're the same weight as you were when you left. But meanwhile you're experiencing — why do you think you're where you are right now? You might not be. I'll spark up a joint if you keep talking. Your manager's gonna come in here, we might have to lock the door. Right now you think you're in a studio in L.A., that's what I heard, you might be in a computer.是你的感知,还是说,你屁股下面有个秤?我测过了,你从进来到现在体重没变。但与此同时你正在经历……你为什么认为你现在在这里?也许你不在。要是你再这样说下去我就点上一根烟了。你经纪人快进来了,我们可能得把门锁上。你现在以为自己在洛杉矶的一个录音棚里,这是我听说的,但你也许在一台电脑里。

52:05

Elon MuskOh listen man, I think about this all the time. Yeah, I mean, it's unquestionable that one day that'll be the case, as long as we keep going, as long as nothing interrupts us.哦,听着,我一直在想这件事。是啊,我是说,只要我们继续走下去、只要没有什么打断我们,有朝一日情况毫无疑问会变成那样。

52:17

Joe RoganAnd if we start from scratch and, you know, we're single-celled organisms all over again, and then millions and millions of years later we become the next thing that is us, with creativity and the ability to change its environment, it's going to keep monkeying with things until it figures out a way to change reality, to change — I mean, to almost like punch a hole through what is this thing into what it wants it to be, and create new things, and then those new things will intersect with other people's new things, and it'll be this ultimate pathway of infinite ideas and expression all through technology. Yeah, and then we're gonna wonder, like, why are we here, what are we doing?如果我们从头开始,从单细胞生物重新来过,数百万年后再次进化成下一个像我们一样的东西——拥有创造力、能够改变自身环境——它就会一直不停地捣鼓,直到找到办法去改变现实,几乎就像在我们现在这个世界上凿开一个洞,通向它想要的那个世界,并创造出新的东西,然后这些新东西又会与其他人创造的新东西交汇,形成一条通往无限思想与表达的终极道路,一切都通过技术实现。是啊,然后我们会开始疑惑,我们为什么在这里,我们在做什么?

53:03

Elon MuskLet's find out. Well, I mean, I think we should take the actions, the set of actions that are most likely to make the future better. And then we evaluate those actions to make sure they're — that it's true.让我们去找出答案。嗯,我是说,我认为我们应该采取最有可能让未来更美好的那一套行动。然后我们评估这些行动,确保它们——确保这是真的。

53:20

Joe RoganWell, I think there's a movement to that, I mean, in terms of like a social movement. I think some of it's misguided and some of it's exaggerated, and there's a lot of people that are fighting for their side out there, but it seems like the general trend of like social awareness seems to be much more heightened now than has ever been in any other time in history, because of our ability to express ourselves instantaneously to each other through Facebook or Twitter or what have you, and the trend is to abandon preconceived notions, abandon prejudice, abandon discrimination, and promote kindness and happiness as much as possible.嗯,我认为这方面有一股社会运动的潮流。我觉得其中有些是被误导的,有些是被夸大的,有很多人在为各自的立场而战,但总体的趋势——社会意识的觉醒——似乎比历史上任何时期都要更加高涨,因为我们拥有通过 Facebook、Twitter 或其他平台即时向彼此表达的能力,而这股潮流的方向是抛弃先入为主的偏见、抛弃歧视,尽可能地传播善意与幸福。

54:03

Elon MuskLook at this knife, somebody gave it to me.看这把刀,有人送给我的。

54:05

Joe RoganSorry. Yeah, what is this, the fuck did you do?抱歉。是啊,这是什么,你搞什么?

54:07

Elon MuskMy friend Donny, he brought this with him and it just stayed here.我朋友 Donny 带来的,就留在这儿了。

54:11

Joe RoganI have a real samurai sword if you want to play with that. I know you're into weapons. That's from the 1500s, samurai, at the end of the table.如果你想玩的话,我有一把真正的武士刀。我知道你喜欢武器。那是 1500 年代的,武士刀,在桌子那头。

54:15

Elon MuskYeah, that's cool, I'll grab it, hold on. Yeah, that's a legit samurai sword.哦,太酷了,我去拿一下,等等。哇,这是一把货真价实的武士刀。

54:30

Joe RoganFrom an actual samurai from the 1500s. If you pull out that blade, that blade was made the old way, where a master craftsman folded that metal and hammered it down over and over again over a long period of time and honed that blade into what it is now. What's crazy is that more than 500 years later that thing is still pristine. I mean, whoever took care of that and passed it down to the next person who took care of it and, you know, until it got to the podcast room, it's pretty fucking crazy.来自 1500 年代真正的武士。你把那个刀刃拔出来,那刀刃是用古法铸造的——一位大师匠将金属反复折叠、锤打,历经漫长时光,将那把刀刃磨砺成今天这个样子。疯狂的是,500 多年后它依然完好如初。从第一个人把它好好保存下来、传给下一个人,再下一个人,一直传到这个播客录音间里,这真他妈太不可思议了。

55:03

Elon MuskYeah, one day someone's going to be looking at a Tesla like that. These fucking back doors, they pop up sideways like a Lamborghini. You should see what Tesla can do. You didn't — you should, I'll show you afterwards.是啊,有朝一日有人也会这样看着一辆 Tesla。这些该死的车门,像 Lamborghini 一样朝两侧翻起来。你应该看看 Tesla 能做什么。你应该——我待会儿带你去看看。

55:21

Joe RoganWell, I've driven one, I love them.我开过,我很喜欢。

55:22

Elon MuskYeah, but most people don't know what it can do in terms of like ludicrous mode, in terms of driving super fast.是啊,但大多数人不知道它在"疯狂模式"下能做什么,能开多快。

55:28

Joe RoganAnd irresponsibly on public roads, is that what we're saying?是说在公共道路上不负责任地飙车,对吧,这是你的意思?

55:32

Elon MuskWell, any car can do that.嗯,什么车都能那样。

55:34

Joe RoganYeah, what can it do that I need to know about?好,那我还不知道的是什么?

55:37

Elon MuskI mean, the Model X can do this like ballet thing to the Trans-Siberian Orchestra. It's pretty cool, where it dances.我是说,Model X 可以随着 Trans-Siberian Orchestra 的音乐跳一段芭蕾舞,挺酷的,它会翩翩起舞。

55:43

Joe RoganYes, legitimately moves around. Why would you program that into a car?是的,真的会动起来。你为什么要给一辆车编这个程序?

55:54

Elon MuskSeemed like fun.感觉很好玩。

55:56

Joe RoganThat's what I get about you, that's what's weird. Like when you showed up here, you were all smiles, and you pull out a fucking blow torch — and not a blow torch, but I'm like, look at this dude, a flamethrower — not a flamethrower, like you want to be clear it's definitely not — you're having fun, like this is — like this thing, when you program a car to do a ballet dance, it's very fun. How do you have the time to do that? I don't understand why you're digging holes under the earth and sending rockets into space and powering people in Australia, like how the fuck do you have time to make the car dance ballet?这就是我看你的感受,这就是奇怪的地方。就像你来这里的时候笑容满面,然后掏出一把喷火枪——不是喷火枪,但我心想,看看这家伙,一把火焰喷射器——不是火焰喷射器,就是你特别想澄清它绝对不是——你就是在玩,就是在乐。像这件事,当你给一辆车编了一段芭蕾舞程序,这太有意思了。你哪来的时间做这些?我搞不明白,你在地底下挖洞、往太空发火箭、给澳大利亚供电,你他妈哪来的时间让车跳芭蕾?

56:31

Elon MuskWell, I mean, in that case there were some engineers at Tesla that said, you know what, if we make this car dance and play music — I was like, that sounds great, please do it, let's try to get it done in time for Christmas. We did.嗯,这件事是 Tesla 有几个工程师跑来说,你知道吗,如果我们让这辆车跳舞配上音乐——我就说,这听起来太棒了,去做吧,争取在圣诞节前完成。我们做到了。

56:48

Joe RoganIs there a concern about someone just losing their mind and making it do that on the highway?有没有担心过有人突然脑子一抽,在高速公路上打开这个功能?

56:55

Elon MuskNo, it won't do that.不会的,它不会那么做。

56:56

Joe RoganWhat if it's in bumper-to-bumper traffic?如果堵车堵成一条线的时候呢?

56:58

Elon MuskNope, no, won't do it. Nope. It's actually — you have to — it's an Easter egg.不行,不会的。它是一个彩蛋。

57:01

Joe RoganOh, it's an Easter egg, yeah, that's why people don't know about it, including people who have the car.哦,是彩蛋,对,所以大家都不知道,包括已经买了车的车主。

57:08

Elon MuskWell, it's like it can do lots of things, lots of things.嗯,它能做的事情多了去了,多了去了。

57:10

Joe RoganOnce Reddit gets a hold of it, everyone's — oh, you just have to —等 Reddit 一挖出来,所有人都——哦,你只需要——

57:13

Elon MuskIt's everyone, if you search for it on the internet you will find out, but people don't know that they should even search for it.其实网上都有,只要你去搜就能找到,但问题是人们根本不知道自己应该去搜这个。

57:18

Joe RoganOh, well, they do now.哦,好吧,他们现在知道了。

57:20

Elon MuskYes, yes. There's so many things about the Model X and the Model S and the Model 3 that people don't know about. We should probably do a video or something and explain it, because I have close friends of mine and I say, do you know the car can do this? And they're like, nope.是的,是的。关于 Model X、Model S 和 Model 3,有太多人不知道的东西了。我们可能应该拍个视频或者什么讲解一下,因为我有几个很亲近的朋友,我跟他们说,你知道这辆车能做这个吗?他们说,不知道。

57:39

Joe RoganDo you want to do a video though? Do you like the fact that some people don't know?你真的想拍视频吗?还是你其实喜欢有些人不知道这些?

57:44

Elon MuskNo, I think it's probably not — we should tell people, yeah, probably yes.不,我觉得大概不应该保密——应该告诉大家,是的,可能应该这样。

57:50

Joe RoganThat would help your product. I mean, it's not like you don't sell enough of them, you sell almost too many of them, right?这对你的产品有好处。我是说,又不是说你卖不出去,你几乎卖得太多了,对吧?

57:56

Elon MuskI mean, I think a Tesla is the most fun thing you could possibly buy ever. That's what it's meant to be. Well, our goal is to make — it's not exactly a car, it's actually a thing to maximize enjoyment. Electronic, like big screen, laptop, ridiculous speed, handling, all that stuff.我是说,我认为 Tesla 是你有生之年能买到的最有趣的东西,没有之一。这就是它的定位。我们的目标是——它严格来说不是一辆汽车,它其实是一个最大化享受的载体。电动化、大屏幕、笔记本电脑、荒唐的速度、操控性,诸如此类。

58:33

Joe RoganYeah. Do you — you have, going to put video games in it?是啊。你准备——要在里面装视频游戏吗?

58:36

Elon MuskYou are, yeah.要装的,是的。

58:37

Joe RoganIs that wise?这明智吗?

58:38

Elon MuskWell, you won't be able to drive while you're playing the video game, but we're — like for example, we're just putting the Atari emulator in it, so you'll be able to play Missile Command and Lunar Lander and a bunch of other things.嗯,你在开车的时候没法玩游戏,但我们——比如说,我们刚把 Atari 模拟器装进去了,所以你将能玩 Missile Command、Lunar Lander 还有一堆其他游戏。

58:53

Joe RoganYeah, that sounds cool, it's pretty fun, I like that.听起来很酷,挺好玩的,我喜欢。

58:55

Elon MuskYeah, and we improved the interface on Missile Command because it's too hard with the old trackball, so this is a touchscreen version of Missile Command, so you have a chance. Do you — you have an old car, don't you? Don't you have like an old Jaguar?是的,我们还改进了 Missile Command 的操作界面,因为旧版的轨迹球太难用了,所以这是触屏版的 Missile Command,这样你才有机会。你——你有辆老车,对吧?你是不是有辆老款 Jaguar?

59:11

Joe RoganYeah, how do you know that? That's — what, another —是的,你怎么知道的?这是——什么,又是——

59:15

Elon Musk61 Series One E-Type Jaguar.61 年款一代 E-Type Jaguar。

59:17

Joe RoganI love cars.我喜欢车。

59:18

Elon MuskIt's great. Yeah, I love old cars. That's one of the only — yeah, the only two gasoline cars I have, of that and an old like a Ford Model T that a friend of mine gave me. That's the only two gasoline cars.很棒。是的,我喜欢老车。这是仅有的几辆——是的,我仅有的两辆燃油车:那辆,还有一辆老式 Ford Model T,是一个朋友送给我的。就这两辆燃油车。

59:33

Joe RoganIs the Ford Model T all stock?那辆 Ford Model T 是全原版配置吗?

59:35

Elon MuskWell — oh, there's your car. Ooh, look, I have the convertible. That is a cool car.嗯——哦,你的车在这儿。哦哦,看,我的是敞篷版。那真是辆帅气的车。

59:40

Joe RoganGod, that's a good looking car.天哪,这车颜值真高。

59:44

Elon MuskYes.是的。

59:44

Joe RoganIs that yours?那是你的吗?

59:45

Elon MuskThat is — it's not mine, it's extremely close to mine. I don't have a friend's license plate on mine.那辆——不是我的,但跟我的非常接近。我的没有别人的车牌。

59:52

Joe RoganOh, it's a beautiful car, they nailed it. That's mine, looks like that. God, they nailed that, that's what mine looks like. Maybe that is mine. There's certain iconic shapes.哦,真是辆漂亮的车,他们设计得太到位了。那就是我的,看起来跟这一模一样。天哪,太到位了,我的就是这样。也许那真是我的。有些经典造型就是不一样。

1:00:02

Elon MuskYes, and there's something about those cars too, they're not as capable, not nearly as capable as like a Tesla, but there's something really satisfying about the mechanical aspect of like feeling the steering and the grinding of the gears and the shifting. There's something about those that's extremely satisfying even though they're not that competent.是的,而且那些老车也有一种独特的东西——它们没有 Tesla 那么强大,差远了,但方向盘的手感、换挡时的咬合与顿挫感,那种机械质感令人非常满足。即便它们性能并不突出,那种感觉就是极度令人满足。

1:00:24

Joe RoganLike I have a 1993 Porsche 964, it's like a lightweight, it's the RS America, it's not very fast, it's not like in comparison to a Tesla or anything like that, but the thing about it is like it's mechanical, you feel it, everything's like — it's like it gives you this weird thrill, like you're on this clinky ride and there's all this feedback. There's something to that.就像我有一辆 1993 年的 Porsche 964,是轻量化版的 RS America,速度不算快,跟 Tesla 什么的完全没法比,但关键是它很机械,你能感受到它,一切都是……它给你一种奇异的刺激感,就像坐在一辆咯吱作响的机器上,有大量的路感反馈。这种感觉是有其意义的。

1:00:51

Elon MuskYeah, yeah, absolutely. I mean, yeah, my E-Type is like basically no electronics.是的,没错。我的 E-Type 基本上没有任何电子设备。

1:00:58

Joe RoganYeah, you like that, but you also like electronics.是的,你喜欢那样,但你同样喜欢电子。

1:01:01

Elon MuskYes.是的。

1:01:03

Joe RoganLike your Tesla is — it's like the far end of electronics.像你的 Tesla 就是——电子化的极致。

1:01:07

Elon MuskYes, drives itself. It's driving itself better every day. Yeah, it's like we're about to release the software that will enable you to just turn it on and it'll drive from highway on-ramp to highway exit, do lane changes to overtake other cars, go from one interchange to the next. If you get on say the 405 and get off 300 miles later and go through several highway interchanges and just overtake other cars and hook into the nav system, and then you're just meditating home.是的,它自己开。每天都开得更好。是啊,就像我们快要发布一款软件,只需打开它,它就能从高速公路入口一路开到出口,变道超越其他车辆,从一个立交桥换到下一个,如果你上了比如说 405 号公路,300 英里后下去,途经好几个高速立交换乘,全程自动超越其他车辆并接入导航系统,然后你就这样冥想着回到家。

1:01:44

Joe RoganYeah, your car's just traveling. It's kind of eerie. It's kind of eerie. What did you think when you saw that video, that dude falling asleep behind the wheel? I'm sure you've seen it, the one in San Francisco, he's like right outside of San Jose, dude's out cold like this, and the car is in bumper to bumper traffic moving along. You've seen it, right?是的,你的车就自己跑了。有点诡异。有点诡异。你看到那个视频有什么感想?就是那个男的在方向盘后面睡着了——你肯定看过,在旧金山,就在圣何塞外面,那家伙整个人就这样,车在堵成一条线的车流里跟着走。你看过,对吧?

1:02:01

Elon MuskYeah, yeah, we changed the software, we changed the software. That's, I think, an old video. We changed software — if you don't touch the wheel, it will gradually slow down and put the emergency lights on and wake you up.看过,看过,我们改了软件,我们改了软件。那大概是一个旧视频了。我们改了软件——如果你不触碰方向盘,车会逐渐减速,打开危险警示灯,把你叫醒。

1:02:14

Joe RoganOh, that's hilarious. Yeah, that's hilarious. Yeah, can you choose what voice wakes you up?哦,那太好笑了。是的,太好笑了。你能选择用什么声音叫醒你吗?

1:02:20

Elon MuskWell, it's sort of more of a — it sort of honks.嗯,它更像是——它会鸣喇叭。

1:02:23

Joe RoganOh, it honks. This should be like, wake up fuck face.哦,鸣喇叭。应该设成"醒醒,混蛋"。

1:02:27

Elon MuskWell, you're endangering your fellow humans. We could gently wake you up with a sultry voice.嗯,你在危及你的同伴们。我们也可以用一把慵懒性感的声音温柔地唤醒你。

1:02:31

Joe RoganAh, that would be good, like uh, something with a southern accent. Hey, why can't we wake up sunshine, hey sweetie.啊,那不错,比如带点南方口音的。嘿,怎么还不醒来呀,宝贝,嘿甜心。

1:02:38

Elon MuskExactly. Why don't you wake up? You're like — you could pick your — right, like what do you want?正是。怎么还不醒来?你就像——你可以自己选——对,你想要什么?

1:02:42

Joe RoganYeah, I choose the Australian girl for Siri. Yeah, I like her voice.是的,我用 Siri 选的是澳大利亚女声。是的,我喜欢她的声音。

1:02:46

Elon MuskDo you want to seduce — my favorite —你想不想要一个性感的——我最喜欢的——

1:02:49

Joe RoganI like Australian.我喜欢澳大利亚口音。

1:02:50

Elon MuskWhat flavor of — do you want to be angry? Could be anything you want.你想要什么风格的——你想要愤怒的吗?可以是你想要的任何样子。

1:02:52

Joe RoganYou want those Australian prison lady genes. Now, when you — um, when you program something like that in, is this in response to a concern or is it your own? Yeah, if you — do you look at it and go, hey, um, they shouldn't just be able to fall asleep, let's wake them up?你就是想要那种澳大利亚女囚犯基因。那么,当你——嗯,当你把这样的东西编进去,这是出于某种担忧,还是你自己的想法?是的,如果你——你是看着说,嘿,他们不能就这样睡着,让我们把他们叫醒?

1:03:08

Elon MuskYeah, yeah, we — it's like, you know, we're like, well, you know, people are just falling asleep, we're about to do something about that.是的,是的,我们——就是说,你知道,我们就是觉得,嗯,大家就是在睡着,我们得对此做点什么。

1:03:16

Joe RoganRight, but when you first released it, you didn't consider it, right? You're just like, well, no one's gonna just sleep.对,但你一开始推出的时候没有考虑到这点,对吧?你就是心想,嗯,没人会直接睡着吧。

1:03:20

Elon MuskPeople fall asleep in cars all the time.人开车的时候一直都在睡着。

1:03:23

Joe RoganAll the time, and crash.一直都在,然后撞车。

1:03:25

Elon MuskYeah, at least our car doesn't crash, that's better. It's better not to crash.是的,但至少我们的车不会撞,这就强多了。不撞车总比撞车好。

1:03:28

Joe RoganImagine if that guy had fallen asleep in a gasoline car, they do it all the time, for sure. Yeah, they would crash into somebody, yeah.想想那家伙如果是在燃油车里睡着了,他们随时随地都在睡,是的,那就会撞上某个人,没错。

1:03:37

Elon MuskAnd in fact, the thing that really, you know, got me to — it's like, man, we better get autopilot going, get it out there — it was a guy was in an early Tesla driving down the highway and he fell asleep and he ran over a cyclist and killed him. And it's like, I was like, man, if we had autopilot — wouldn't run out — he might have fallen asleep, but at least he wouldn't run over that cyclist.事实上,真正让我觉得——就是这个,让我意识到我们最好赶快推进自动驾驶,把它推出去——是有个男的在一辆早期 Tesla 上高速的时候睡着了,他撞上了一个骑自行车的人,把他撞死了。当时我就想,如果我们有自动驾驶的话——就不会发生这种事——他也许还是会睡着,但至少不会撞上那个骑车的人。

1:04:04

Joe RoganSo how did you implement it? Like, did you just use cameras?那你是怎么实现的?用的是摄像头吗?

1:04:07

Elon MuskYeah, programmed with the system —是的,用系统编程的——

1:04:11

Joe RoganSo that if it sees images it slows down. And how much time do you give? Is the person who's in control of it allowed to program how fast it goes?所以如果它看到影像就减速。那控制时给多少时间?坐在里面的人可以自己设定速度吗?

1:04:22

Elon MuskYes. You can program it to be more or less, like more conservative, like more aggressive driver. And you can say what speed you want it to go.可以。你可以设置得更保守或者更激进,就像更激进的驾驶风格。你还可以设定你希望它走的速度。

1:04:34

Joe RoganWhat speed is okay? I know you have ludicrous mode. Do you have douchebag mode?多快才算合适?我知道你有"疯狂模式"。你们有"浑蛋模式"吗?

1:04:41

Elon MuskWell, it just cuts people off. For lane changes it's tricky, because if you're in like LA, like unless you're pretty aggressive, it's pretty hard to change lanes.呃,那就是到处插队的模式。变道这事有点棘手,因为在洛杉矶这种地方,除非你够强硬,不然很难变道。

1:04:52

Joe RoganIt's hard to be Sat Nam, it's hard to be Namaste out here in LA. Yeah, if you want to hit that Santa Monica Boulevard off-ramp, I mean you got to be a little pushy.在这儿要做到随遇而安、与世无争真的很难。是的,如果你想走 Santa Monica Boulevard 那个下匝道,你就得稍微强势一点。

1:05:01

Elon MuskYou got to be a little pushy.你就是得稍微强势一点。

1:05:03

Joe RoganYeah, especially angry. A little angry, they don't want you in, they speed up sometimes, you know.是的,尤其是遇上愤怒的司机。有点愤怒感,他们就是不让你,有时候还踩油门加速,你知道的。

1:05:07

Elon MuskI think people overall are pretty nice on the highway, even in LA, but sometimes they're not.我觉得总体来说,就算在洛杉矶,高速公路上的人都还是挺友好的,但有时候也有例外。

1:05:13

Joe RoganDo you think the neural link will help that? Probably everybody be locked in together, this hive mind.你觉得 Neuralink 会对这个有帮助吗?可能大家都互相连接起来,形成一个蜂群思维。

1:05:20

Elon MuskTunnels will help, it won't have traffic. That'll help a lot.隧道会有帮助,隧道里不会堵车。那会有很大帮助。

1:05:24

Joe RoganYeah, how many of those can you put in there? Because thinking about traveling, buddy.是的,你能挖多少条?因为说到出行,朋友——

1:05:28

Elon MuskNice thing about tunnels is you can go 3D, so you can go many levels.隧道的好处是可以做到三维立体,可以分很多层。

1:05:31

Joe RoganRight, so until you hit hell.对,直到挖到地狱为止。

1:05:34

Elon MuskYeah, but you could have a hundred levels of tunnel.是的,但你可以建一百层隧道。

1:05:36

Joe RoganNo bombs. Jesus Christ, I don't want to be on 99. That'll be the 99th. Negative 99 floors, whoo.不要炸弹。天哪,我可不想走第 99 层。那就是第 99 条,负 99 层,哇哦。

1:05:45

Elon MuskThis is one of the fundamental things people don't appreciate about tunnels, is that it's not like roads. The fundamental issue with roads is that you have a 2D transport system and a 3D living and workspace environment. So you got all these tall buildings or concentrated work environments, and then you want to go into this like 2D transport system, which is hugely inefficient, pretty low density, because cars are spaced out pretty far. And so that obviously is not going to work, you're going to have traffic guaranteed.这是人们没有意识到的关于隧道的一个根本性问题——它和公路完全不同。公路的根本问题在于,你有一个 2D 的交通系统,但生活和工作空间是 3D 的。所以你有这些高楼大厦或者密集的工作区,然后你想进入这个 2D 的交通系统——这极其低效,密度也很低,因为车与车之间的间距很大。所以这显然行不通,堵车是必然的。

1:06:19

Elon MuskBut if you can go 3D on your transport system, then you can solve all traffic. You can either go 3D up with a flying car, or go 3D down with tunnels. You can have as many tunnel levels as you want, and you can arbitrarily relieve any amount of traffic. You can go further down with tunnels than you can go up with buildings. You're ten thousand feet down if you want. I wouldn't recommend it.但如果你的交通系统能做到三维,那你就能彻底解决堵车问题。你可以向上三维,用飞行汽车,或者向下三维,用隧道。隧道想有几层就有几层,可以任意缓解任何程度的拥堵。隧道能往下挖的深度比大楼能往上建的高度更大。如果你愿意,可以往下挖一万英尺。我不建议这样。

1:06:46

Joe RoganWhat was that movie with, what's his face, Bradley Coote, not Bradley Cooper, uh, Christian, no, what the fuck his name, who is Batman, Christian Bale, where they fought dragons, him and Matthew McConaughey, they went down deep into the earth. How deep can you go?那个电影是谁演的,怎么想不起他名字,Bradley Coote,不是 Bradley Cooper,嗯,Christian,不,他妈的叫什么名,就是演 Batman 那个,Christian Bale,就是他和 Matthew McConaughey 打龙那部,他们钻进地球深处。最深能挖多深?

1:07:05

Elon MuskYeah, it was Batman fought dragons.是的,就是那个 Batman 打龙的。

1:07:08

Joe RoganBatman, but it was Christian. Reign of Fire, Reign of Fire, okay, ever saw that?是 Batman,但是是 Christian 演的。《火焰王朝》,《火焰王朝》,对,你看过吗?

1:07:12

Elon MuskNo. Yeah, earth is a giant ball of lava with a thin crust on the top, which we think of as like the surface. This thin crust, and it's mostly just a big bowl of lava, that's earth. But ten thousand feet's not a big deal.没有。是的,地球是一个巨大的熔岩球,上面有一层薄薄的地壳,就是我们所说的地表。这层薄薄的外壳,下面基本上就是一大盆熔岩,这就是地球。但一万英尺根本不算什么。

1:07:40

Joe RoganHave you given any consideration whatsoever to the flat earth movement?你有没有认真考虑过地球是平的这个理论?

1:07:47

Elon MuskI think that's a troll situation.我觉得那是在钓鱼。

1:07:49

Joe RoganOh, it's not. No, it's not. You would like to think that because you're a super genius, but I, as a normal person, I know there's people way dumber than me, and they really really believe. They watch YouTube videos which go on uninterrupted and spew out a bunch of fucking fake facts very eloquently and articulately, and they really believe, these people really believe.不不不,才不是。你会这么想,是因为你是个超级天才,但我作为一个普通人,我知道有人比我笨得多,他们是真心相信的。他们看那些不间断播放的 YouTube 视频,视频里一口气喷出一堆他妈的假信息,说得头头是道、有条有理,他们真的信,这些人是真的相信。

1:08:14

Elon MuskI mean, if it works for them, sure, fine.我是说,如果他们觉得管用,那好吧,随便。

1:08:20

Joe RoganIt's weird though, right, that this age where you know there's ludicrous mode in your car, goes 1.9 seconds zero to 60.不过挺奇怪的,对吧——你知道,你的车里有 ludicrous 模式,零到 60 只要 1.9 秒。

1:08:28

Elon Musk2.2.2.2 秒。

1:08:30

Joe RoganWhich one's 1.9?哪款是 1.9 秒?

1:08:33

Elon MuskThe next generation Roadster. Standard edition.下一代 Roadster,标准版。

1:08:36

Joe RoganOkay, standard edition, yeah. I'm on top of this shit.哦,标准版,对对对。我对这事儿可门儿清。

1:08:39

Elon MuskThat's what the standard edition. So it's about the performance package.对,那是标准版。性能包那个更快。

1:08:42

Joe RoganWhat performance package? Yeah, what the fuck do you need to put rocket thrusters on it for real?性能包?是的,你他妈的还要给它装火箭推进器,那是认真的吗?

1:08:49

Elon MuskYes. To burn nothing, uh, ultra high pressure compressed air.是的。不燃烧任何东西,用的是超高压压缩空气。

1:08:56

Joe RoganJust cold gas thrusters. Do you have to have air tanks, or they just suck in the air out of...?就是冷气推进器。需要气罐,还是直接从外面吸气?

1:09:01

Elon MuskOkay, yeah, just have electric pump, pump it up to like ten thousand psi.用电动泵,把气压到大概 10,000 psi。

1:09:06

Joe RoganAnd how fast are we talking, zero to sixteen?那能跑多快,零到 60 多少?

1:09:07

Elon MuskHow fast you want to go?你想跑多快?

1:09:09

Joe RoganI'm gonna go... we could make it just fly. I want to go back in time.我想……我们能让它飞起来。我想回到过去。

1:09:13

Elon MuskMake it fly, you make it fly, sure.让它飞,你想让它飞,可以啊。

1:09:16

Joe RoganDo you anticipate that as being... I mean you were talking about the tunnels and then flying cars. Do you really think that's going to be real?你预想那会是……我是说你之前聊到隧道,然后又说飞行汽车。你真的觉得那会成真吗?

1:09:21

Elon MuskToo noisy and there's too much air flow. So the fundamental issue with flying cars, I mean, if you get like one of those toy drones, think of how loud those are and how much air that they blow. Now imagine if that's like a thousand times heavier. This is not going to make your neighbors happy. Your neighbors are not going to be happy if you land a flying car in your backyard.太吵了,而且气流太大。飞行汽车的根本问题在于——你拿那种玩具无人机想一想,它们有多吵、吹出来的气有多猛。现在想象那个东西重上一千倍。你邻居绝对不会乐意的。如果你在自家后院降落一辆飞行汽车,你邻居绝不会高兴的。

1:09:45

Joe RoganIt will be very... helicopters, helicopter, or on your roof, they're just really going to be like what the hell, that was annoying.确实很……直升机,在屋顶上的那种,人们会直接说,搞什么啊,烦死了。

1:09:50

Elon MuskYeah, you can't even... if you want a flying car, just put some wheels on a helicopter.对,你根本没法……想要飞行汽车,直接在直升机上装四个轮子不就完了。

1:09:56

Joe RoganIs there a way around that, like what if they figure out some sort of magnetic technology like all those Bob Lazar type characters were thinking? That was a part of the UFO technology they were doing it, Area 51. Remember, didn't they have some thoughts about magnetics?有没有什么变通办法,比如他们搞出某种磁力技术,就像 Bob Lazar 那帮人一直在想的那种?那是他们在 51 区研究的飞碟技术的一部分。你记得吗,他们不是有关于磁力的一些想法吗?

1:10:14

Elon MuskNope.没有。

1:10:15

Joe RoganNo fucking yes, really?没有他妈的……是的,真的吗?

1:10:16

Elon MuskYeah, there's a fundamental momentum exchange with the air, so you must accelerate. There's a certain... you have a mass and you have gravity, gravitational acceleration, and your mass times gravity must equal the mass of airflow times the acceleration of that airflow to have a neutral force, so it's impossible, and then you won't move. But okay, if MG is greater than MA you will go down, and if MA is greater than MG you will go up. That's how it works, there's just no way around that.对,这里有一个基本的动量交换问题,你必须给空气加速。有一个基本规律——你有质量、有重力加速度,你的质量乘以重力必须等于气流质量乘以气流加速度,才能保持力的平衡,否则你根本动不了。如果 MG 大于 MA 你就往下掉,MA 大于 MG 你就往上飞。原理就这么简单,根本没有绕过去的办法。

1:10:54

Joe RoganThere is definitely no way around it. There's no way to create some sort of a magnetic something or another that allows you to...?确实没有任何办法绕过去。没有办法搞出什么磁力装置让你……?

1:11:02

Elon MuskTechnically yes, you could have a strong enough magnet, but that magnet would be so strong that you would create a lot of trouble.从技术上讲可以,你可以造一个足够强的磁铁,但那磁铁强到会制造大量麻烦。

1:11:17

Joe RoganWe just suck cars up into your car, just pick up...?就把旁边的车都吸过来,直接把……?

1:11:20

Elon MuskI mean, you'd have to rappel off of either material on the ground, or in a really nutty situation off of earth's gravitational field, and somehow make that incredibly light, but that magnet would cause so much destruction you'd be better off with a helicopter.我是说,你得依靠地面材料来产生斥力,或者在更疯狂的情况下利用地球引力场,同时还得把这东西做得超级轻,但那个磁铁造成的破坏会大到你还不如用直升机。

1:11:43

Joe RoganSo if there was some sort of magnet road, like you have two magnets and they repel each other, if you had some sort of a magnet road that was below you and you could travel on that magnet road, that would work.那如果造一条磁力路呢,就像两块磁铁互相排斥,在你下面铺一条磁力路,你在这条磁力路上行驶,那就能行了。

1:11:57

Elon MuskYes, you could have a magnet road.是的,磁力路是可以的。

1:12:03

Joe RoganA magnet road, is that too ridiculous?磁力路,这太荒唐了吗?

1:12:05

Elon MuskNo, it would work, so you could do that.不,它是能用的,可以这么做。

1:12:07

Joe RoganRidiculous too, right?但也很荒唐,对吧?

1:12:07

Elon MuskI would not recommend it. There's a lot of things I don't recommend. I would super not recommend that, not good, not wise I think.我不推荐。有很多事我都不推荐。这个我是超级不推荐,不好,我觉得不明智。

1:12:13

Joe RoganNo roads, no, no, that, no, definitely not.不,不行,那个,不,绝对不行。

1:12:21

Elon MuskDefinitely it would cause a lot of trouble.绝对会造成大量麻烦。

1:12:23

Joe RoganSo you've put some time and consideration into this, other than, uh, you know, instead of like my foolishly rendered thoughts. So you think that tunnels are the way to do it?所以你对这个是认真思考和研究过的,不像我这种随便想想的。你觉得隧道是解决办法?

1:12:33

Elon MuskOh, it'll work for sure, that'll work, yes.哦,那肯定能行,那是可以的,没错。

1:12:36

Joe RoganAnd these tunnels that you're building right now, these are basically just like test versions of this ultimate idea that you have. You know, it's just a hole in the ground, right? We played videos of it where you just... your idea is that you're going to drop that hole in the ground, there's a sled on it and the sled goes very fast, like 100 miles an hour plus.你现在挖的这些隧道,基本上就是你这个终极想法的试验版本,对吧?就是地上打个洞,我们看过视频——你的想法是在洞里放一个滑板,滑板跑得很快,时速 100 英里以上。

1:12:58

Elon MuskYeah, you can go real fast, you know, fast as you want. And then if you want to go long distances you can just draw the air out of the tunnel, make sure it's real straight.对,可以跑得很快,想跑多快都行。然后如果要跑长途,就把隧道里的空气抽出来,保证隧道足够笔直。

1:13:05

Joe RoganDraw the air out of the tunnel?把隧道里的空气抽出来?

1:13:08

Elon MuskYeah, it's a vacuum tunnel. Then, depending on how fast you want to go, you need these wheels, or you could use air bearings depending upon the ambient pressure in the tunnel, or you could maglev if you want to go super fast.对,这是真空隧道。然后,根据你想跑的速度,需要用轮子,或者根据隧道内的环境气压用气浮轴承,或者想跑超快就用磁浮。

1:13:26

Joe RoganSo magnet road, yes, but underground.所以磁力路可以,但得在地下。

1:13:30

Elon MuskMagnet roads underground, otherwise you're going to really create a lot of trouble, because there's metal things.磁力路在地下,不然会制造大量麻烦,因为周围到处是金属东西。

1:13:36

Joe RoganSo magnet road's the way to go, just underground, if you want to go really fast.所以磁力路是正确的方向,只要在地下,想跑多快都行。

1:13:41

Elon MuskUnderground you would be maglev in a vacuum tunnel. Maglev in a vacuum tunnel, magnetic levitation in a vacuum tunnel.在地下就是真空隧道里的磁浮。真空隧道里的磁浮,磁悬浮在真空隧道中。

1:13:51

Joe RoganOne with rocket launchers?带火箭发射器的那种?

1:13:51

Elon MuskNo, I would not recommend putting any exhaust gas in the tunnel.不,我不建议在隧道里排放任何废气。

1:13:55

Joe RoganOh okay, I see what you're saying, you're going to pump it out, right?哦我明白了,你是要把气抽掉,对吧?

1:14:00

Elon MuskRight, you'll have to pump it out.对,必须把气抽走。

1:14:01

Joe RoganAnd you probably have a limited amount of air in the first place. Like how much can you breathe? Do you have to pump oxygen into these cubicles?而且本来就没多少空气。能呼吸多久?需要往这些舱里泵氧气吗?

1:14:08

Elon MuskYou'd have a pressurized pod, to be like a little tiny underground spaceship basically, like an airplane.要有一个加压的舱,基本上就像一艘小型地下飞船,类似飞机。

1:14:14

Joe RoganBecause you have air in the airplane, it's not getting new air in.因为飞机里有空气,但外面的新空气进不来。

1:14:15

Elon MuskIt is. Yes, they have like a little hole, yeah, they have a pump.是进来的。对,它有个小孔,有个泵。

1:14:20

Joe RoganReally? Yeah, it gets it from the outside? Yes. Wow, I didn't know that.真的?是从外面吸进来的吗?是的。哇,我不知道这个。

1:14:24

Elon MuskThe air, airplanes have it easy, because essentially they're pretty leaky.飞机的情况其实比较好处理,因为飞机本身挺漏气的。

1:14:31

Joe RoganBut Jesus, yeah, so long as they... as long as the air pump is working at a decent speed.但操,只要……只要气泵够快就行了。

1:14:38

Elon MuskThey have backup pumps, still have like, you know, three pumps or four pumps or something. And then there's an exhaust, it exhausts through the outflow valve and through whatever seals are not sealing quite right. Usually the door doesn't seal quite right on a plane, this is a bit of leakage around the door. And the pumps exceed the outflow rate, and then that sets the pressure in the cabin.有备用泵,大概三四个泵。然后有出口,通过排气阀和那些没密封好的地方排出去。通常飞机的舱门密封得不是特别好,门缝会漏气。泵的送气量超过排气量,就维持了机舱气压。

1:15:07

Joe RoganNow have you ever looked at planes and gone, I could fix this, I just don't have time? Do you have a design for a plane, a better design?你有没有看飞机的时候想过,这玩意儿我能改进,就是没时间?你有没有飞机的设计方案,更好的设计?

1:15:19

Elon MuskI mean, probably, I think it is, yes.我是说,应该是有的,我觉得是的。

1:15:22

Joe RoganWho have you talked to about this?你和谁聊过这个?

1:15:25

Elon MuskI've talked to friends, friends and...跟朋友聊过,朋友还有……

1:15:29

Joe RoganI'm your friend, girlfriends, you can tell me, what do you got, what's going on?我是你朋友啊,朋友,你可以告诉我,你有什么想法,说来听听?

1:15:34

Elon MuskWell, I mean the exciting thing to do would be some sort of electric vertical takeoff and landing supersonic jet of some kind, vertical takeoff and landing, no need for a runway, just shoot up straight in the air.嗯,我觉得最令人兴奋的是搞某种电动垂直起降超音速喷气机,垂直起降,不需要跑道,直接垂直升空。

1:15:50

Joe RoganHow would you do that? When they do that in some military aircraft, correct?怎么实现?有些军用飞机好像能做到,对吧?

1:15:53

Elon MuskYes, the trick is that you have to transition to level flight. And the thing that you'd use for vertical takeoff and landing is not suitable for high-speed flight, so you have two different systems. I thought about this quite a lot, I've thought about this scheme quite a lot. The interesting thing about an electric plane is that you want to go as high as possible, but you need a certain energy density in the battery pack, because you have to overcome gravitational potential energy. Once you've overcome gravitational potential energy and you're at a high altitude, the energy you use in cruise is very low, and then you can recapture a large part of the gravitational potential energy on the way down. So you really don't need any kind of reserve fuel if you will, because you have the energy of height, gravitational potential energy, this is a lot of energy.是的,关键在于你必须完成向水平飞行的过渡。垂直起降用的那套系统不适合高速飞行,所以你得有两套不同的系统。我对这个方案想了很久,真的想了很久。电动飞机的有趣之处在于你要飞得越高越好,但电池组需要达到一定的能量密度,因为你必须克服重力势能。一旦克服了重力势能、到达高空,巡航消耗的能量就非常低,而且下降时还能回收很大一部分重力势能。所以你几乎不需要任何备用燃料,因为高度本身就是能量,重力势能,这是相当大的能量。

1:16:56

Elon MuskSo once you can get high, the way to think about a plane is it's a force balance. A plane that is not accelerating is a neutral force balance. You have the force of gravity, you have the lift force of the wings, then you've got the force of whatever thrusting device, the propeller or turbine or whatever it is, and you've got the resistance force of the air. Now the higher you go, the lower the air resistance is. Air density drops exponentially, but drag increases with the square, and an exponential beats a square. The higher you go the faster you will go for the same amount of energy. At a certain altitude you can go supersonic with less energy per mile, quite a lot less energy per mile than an aircraft at 35,000 feet, because it's just a force balance.一旦能飞到足够高,理解飞机的方式就是力的平衡。没有加速的飞机处于力的中性平衡状态:有重力、有机翼产生的升力,还有推进装置(螺旋桨、涡轮或其他装置)产生的推力,以及空气的阻力。飞得越高,空气阻力就越低。空气密度按指数下降,而阻力按平方增加,指数比平方下降得快。飞得越高,消耗同样的能量就能跑得越快。在某一高度,超音速飞行消耗的每英里能量,会比在 35,000 英尺飞行的飞机少得多,因为这就是力的平衡的结果。

1:18:00

Joe RoganI'm too stupid for this conversation. It makes sense though. No, I'm sure it does. Now when you think about this new idea of designing it, I mean, when you have this idea about improving planes, are you going to bring this to somebody, or you just chuck...?我太蠢了,跟不上这个话题。不过逻辑上说得通。不,我确定是的。那当你想到改进飞机的新想法时,你打算找人谈谈,还是就随它去了?

1:18:20

Elon MuskI have a lot on my plate right...我现在手头事情太多了……

1:18:22

Joe RoganThat's what I'm saying, I don't know how you do what you do now, but if you keep coming up with these... it's got to be hard to pawn these off on someone else, either, hey, go do a good job with this vertical takeoff and landing system that I want to implement to regular planes.就是说,我不明白你是怎么做到现在这一切的,如果你还在不断冒出这些新想法……把这些想法甩给别人也不容易啊,就是说,"嘿,去帮我把这个垂直起降系统好好搞出来装在普通飞机上。"

1:18:39

Elon MuskThe airplane, electric airplane, isn't necessary right now. Electric cars are important, solar energy is important, stationary storage of energy is important, these things are much more important than creating electric supersonic VTOL. Also the planes naturally... you really want that gravitational energy density for an aircraft, and this is improving over time. So you know, it's important that we accelerate the transition to sustainable energy, that's why electric cars, it matters whether electric cars happen sooner or later.电动飞机现在没有那么紧迫。电动汽车更重要,太阳能更重要,固定式储能更重要,这些都比搞电动超音速垂直起降飞机重要得多。而且飞机的情况本来就……你真的需要提高电池的重量能量密度才行,这方面还在随时间改善。所以,加速向可持续能源转型很重要,这就是为什么电动汽车很关键,电动汽车早点还是晚点普及,真的有区别。

1:19:15

Elon MuskYou know, we're really playing the crazy game here with the atmosphere and the oceans. We're taking vast amounts of carbon from deep underground and putting this in the atmosphere. This is crazy, we should not do this, it's very dangerous. So we should accelerate the transition to sustainable energy. I mean, the bizarre thing is that obviously we're going to run out of oil in the long term. There's only so much oil we can mine and burn, it's total logical, we must have a sustainable energy transport and energy infrastructure in the long term. So we know that's the end point, we know that. So why run this crazy experiment where we take trillions of tons of carbon from underground and put it in the atmosphere and oceans? This is an insane experiment, it's the dumbest experiment in human history. Why are we doing this? It's crazy.你知道,我们现在在大气层和海洋这件事上真的在玩一个疯狂的游戏。我们把地下深处大量的碳挖出来排进大气层。这是疯了,我们不应该这样做,非常危险。所以应该加速向可持续能源转型。我是说,奇怪的地方在于,长期来看我们显然会耗尽石油。我们能开采和燃烧的石油是有限的,这是完全合乎逻辑的,我们长期来看必须建立可持续的能源交通和能源基础设施。所以我们知道那是终点,我们都知道。那为什么要做这个疯狂的实验,把地下几万亿吨的碳挖出来排进大气层和海洋?这是一个疯狂的实验,是人类历史上最蠢的实验。我们为什么这么做?太疯了。

1:20:25

Joe RoganDo you think this is a product of momentum, that we started off doing this when it was just a few engines, a few 100 million gallons of fuel over the whole world, not that big of a deal, and then slowly but surely over a century it got out of control? And now it's not just our fuel, but it's also, I mean fossil fuels are involved in so many different electronics, so many different items that people buy. There's just this constant desire for fossil fuels, constant need for oil without consideration of the sustainability.你觉得这是惯性使然吗?一开始只是几台发动机、全世界几亿加仑的油,没什么大不了,然后一个世纪慢慢失控了?而且现在不只是燃料的问题,化石燃料还涉及那么多不同的电子产品、那么多人们购买的商品。人类对化石燃料有一种持续的渴望,对石油有一种不考虑可持续性的持续需求。

1:21:01

Elon MuskThe things like oil, coal, gas, it's the easy money, right? It's easy money.石油、煤炭、天然气这些东西,就是来钱容易啊,对吧?来钱容易。

1:21:09

Joe RoganHave you heard about clean coal? The president's been tweeting about it, it's got to be real. Clean coal, all caps, did you see he used all caps? Clean coal.你听说过清洁煤吗?总统一直在发推特说这个,肯定是真的。清洁煤,全大写,你看到他用全大写了吗?清洁煤。

1:21:18

Elon MuskUm, well, you know, it's very difficult to put that CO2 back in the ground, it doesn't like being in solid form, it takes a lot of energy.嗯,要把那个 CO2 重新压回地下是非常困难的,它不喜欢以固态存在,需要消耗大量能量。

1:21:28

Joe RoganLike some sort of a filter, giant building sized filter, sucks carbon out of the atmosphere?就是某种过滤器,巨型建筑大小的过滤器,把碳从大气层里吸出来?

1:21:37

Elon MuskNo, it doesn't, it's not possible.不,那不现实,做不到。

1:21:39

Joe RoganNo, no, definitely fucking no, we're not fucked?不行,绝对他妈的不行,我们完蛋了吗?

1:21:48

Elon MuskI mean, this is quite a complex question, right. You know, we're really just, the more carbon we take out of the ground and add to the atmosphere, and a lot of it gets permeated into the oceans, the more dangerous it is. I don't think right now... I think we're okay right now, we can probably even add some more, but the momentum towards sustainable energy is too slow. There's a vast base of industry, vast transportation system. Like, there's two and a half billion cars and trucks in the world, and the new car and truck production, if it was a hundred percent electric, that's only about a hundred million per year. So it would take, if you could snap your fingers and instantly turn all old cars and trucks electric, it would still take 25 years to change the transport base to electric.这是个很复杂的问题,对吧。你知道,我们往大气层里排的碳越多,很多还渗透进了海洋,就越危险。我不认为现在……我觉得我们现在还好,可能还能再多排一点,但向可持续能源转型的势头太慢了。工业基础太庞大,交通体系太庞大。全世界有 25 亿辆汽车和卡车,新车产量就算 100% 电动化,也不过每年大约 1 亿辆。所以即使能按下一个开关瞬间把所有旧车换成电动车,还是需要 25 年才能把交通基础转变为电动。

1:22:52

Joe RoganMakes sense, because how long does a truck, car, truck last before it goes into the junkyard and gets crushed?有道理,因为一辆卡车或汽车能开多少年才进废品厂压成铁饼?

1:22:57

Elon MuskAbout 20 to 25 years.大约 20 到 25 年。

1:22:59

Joe RoganIs there a way to accelerate that process, like some sort of subsidies or some encouragement from the government financially?有没有什么办法可以加速这个过程,比如某种补贴或者政府在经济上的鼓励?

1:23:08

Elon MuskWell, the thing that is going on right now is that there's an inherent subsidy in any oil burning device. Any power plant or car is fundamentally consuming the carbon capacity of the oceans and atmosphere, or just say atmosphere for short. So you can say, okay, there's a certain probability of something bad happening past a certain carbon concentration in the atmosphere, and so there's some uncertain number where if we put too much carbon in the atmosphere things overheat, oceans warm up, ice caps melt, ocean real estate becomes a lot less valuable, something's underwater. And it's not clear what that number is, but it's definitely... the scientific consensus is overwhelming. I mean, I don't know any serious scientists, actually zero, literally zero, who don't think that we have quite a serious climate risk that we're facing.目前的情况是,所有烧油的设备都有一种内在的补贴。任何发电厂或汽车,从根本上都在消耗大气层和海洋的碳容量,简单说就是大气层。你可以这样算,大气中碳浓度超过某个数值,某件坏事发生的概率就会有多大,所以存在一个不确定的临界值,一旦大气中碳含量过多,气温就会过热、海洋就会变暖、冰盖就会融化、沿海房产的价值就会大跌、一些地方会被淹没。那个临界值是多少不清楚,但可以确定的是——科学界的共识是压倒性的。我是说,我不认识任何一个严肃的科学家——一个都没有,字面意义上的零个——不认为我们面临相当严峻的气候风险。

1:24:28

Elon MuskAnd so there's fundamentally a subsidy occurring with every fossil fuel burning thing. Power plants, aircraft, car, frankly even rockets. I mean, rockets use up... they burn fuel, but with rockets there's just no other way to get to orbit unfortunately, so it's the only way. But with cars there's definitely a better way, with electric cars, and to generate the energy do so with photovoltaics, because we've got a giant thermonuclear reactor in the sky called the sun. It's great, it shows up every day, very reliable. So if you can generate energy from solar panels stored with batteries, you can have energy 24 hours a day. And then you can concentrate to the poles or near to the north with high voltage lines. Also the northern parts of the world tend to have a lot of hydropower as well.所以每一个烧化石燃料的东西,从根本上都在享受补贴。发电厂、飞机、汽车,坦率地说甚至是火箭。火箭会燃烧燃料,但火箭没有其他办法进入轨道,所以这是唯一的方式。但汽车绝对有更好的方式,就是电动汽车,而且发电方式可以用光伏,因为天上有一个巨型热核反应堆叫做太阳。很棒,每天都出现,非常可靠。用太阳能板发电、用电池储能,就能 24 小时供电。然后可以用高压线路向极地或北部地区输送。而且世界北部地区也往往有大量水力发电资源。

1:25:37

Elon MuskBut anyway, all fossil fuel powered things have an inherent subsidy, which is their consumption of the carbon capacity of the atmosphere and oceans. So people tend to think like, why should electric vehicles have a subsidy? But they're not taking into account that all fossil fuel burning vehicles fundamentally are subsidized by the cost, the environmental cost to earth. But nobody's paying for it. We are going to pay for it obviously, in the future we will pay for it, it's just not paid for now.不管怎样,所有化石燃料驱动的东西都有一种内在的补贴,就是它们对大气层和海洋碳容量的消耗。所以人们会想,凭什么要给电动汽车补贴?但他们没有考虑到,所有烧化石燃料的车辆,从根本上都在依靠对地球造成的环境成本来获得补贴。只是没有人在买单。我们以后显然是要付出代价的,只是现在还没到还款的时候。

1:26:16

Joe RoganNow what is the bottleneck in regards to electric cars and trucks and things like that? Is it battery capacity?那电动汽车和卡车的瓶颈是什么?是电池容量吗?

1:26:25

Elon MuskYeah, I've got to scale up production, got to make the car compelling, make it better than gasoline or diesel cars.对,要扩大生产规模,要让车足够吸引人,让它比汽油车或柴油车更好。

1:26:34

Joe RoganMake it more efficient in terms of like the distance it can travel.让它在续航方面更有效率。

1:26:35

Elon MuskYeah, you're going to be able to go far enough, recharge fast.对,能跑足够远,充电足够快。

1:26:38

Joe RoganAnd your Roadster, you're anticipating 600 miles, is that correct? What is it, 600 miles, is that right now? Like have you driven one 600 miles now?你的 Roadster,预计续航 600 英里,是这样吗?600 英里,现在的数字?现在能不能开出 600 英里?

1:26:52

Elon MuskNo, we could totally make one right now that would do 600 miles, but the thing is too expensive. So it's like the car much more so... well, you know, just have a 200 kilowatt hour battery pack and you can go 600 miles.不,我们现在完全可以做一辆能跑 600 英里的,但那样成本太高了。这个嘛,就是……你懂的,装一块 200 千瓦时的电池包就能跑 600 英里。

1:27:06

Joe RoganWhat do you have now? 330 mile range, so that's really 30 miles? What is that in terms of kilowatts?现在是多少?330 英里续航,其实也就差 30 英里?那换算成千瓦是多少?

1:27:15

Elon MuskWell, that would be for a Model S, 100 kilowatt hour pack will do about 330 miles, maybe 335. But some people have hypermiled it to 500 miles.Model S 的话,100 千瓦时的电池包大概能跑 330 英里,也许 335 英里。但有人极限超跑到了 500 英里。

1:27:26

Joe RoganHypermiled it, would, yeah, I just like go on 45 miles an hour or something?极限续航,就是以 45 英里每小时之类的速度跑吗?

1:27:31

Elon MuskThey're like 30 miles an hour or something, it's like on level ground, you pump the tires up really well and go on a smooth surface, and you can go for a long time. But you can definitely comfortably do 300 miles, is fine for most people. Usually 200 or 250 miles is fine, 300 miles is, you don't even think about it really.大概 30 英里每小时,在平路上、轮胎打足气、路面平整光滑,这样就能跑很久。但正常使用舒舒服服地跑 300 英里没问题,对大多数人来说够了。通常 200 英里或 250 英里就够了,300 英里的话你根本不用想这个问题。

1:27:53

Joe RoganIs there any possibility that you could use solar power, that solar powered one day, especially in Los Angeles? I mean, as you said about that giant nuclear reactor a million times bigger than earth just floating in the sky, is it possible that one day you'll be able to just power all these cars just on solar power? I mean, we don't ever have cloudy days, if we do there's three of them.有没有可能用太阳能,某天可以靠太阳能驱动,尤其是在洛杉矶?就像你说的,天上那个比地球大一百万倍的巨型核反应堆一直在那儿挂着,有没有可能某天所有的车都靠太阳能?这里又不是天天阴天,就算阴,也就那么三天。

1:28:15

Elon MuskWell, the surface area of a car is... without making the car like really blocky, or having some like a G-Wagon, and just like having a lot of surface area where like maybe solar panels fold out or something.问题是汽车的表面积……不做成箱型车,或者像 G-Wagon 那样,或者搞个能折叠展开的太阳能板什么的。

1:28:29

Joe RoganLike your E-Class, that's what we needed, the E-Type. Yeah, the E-Jaguar E-Type with a giant long hood, that could be a giant solar panel.就像你的 E-Class,对,那才是我们需要的,E 型车。对,Jaguar E-Type 那个超长的引擎盖,可以做成一块巨大的太阳能板。

1:28:40

Elon MuskWell, at the beginning of Tesla I did want to have this like unfolding solar panel thing, that you'd press a button and it would just unfold these solar panels and recharge your car in the parking lot.哦,Tesla 刚成立的时候,我确实想过搞一个这样的折叠太阳能板,按一个按钮就展开,在停车场给车充电。

1:28:48

Joe RoganAh yeah.啊对啊。

1:28:51

Elon MuskWe could do that, but I think it's probably better to just put that on your roof, and then it's going to be facing the sun all the time, because otherwise your car could be in the shade, covered in the shade, in a garage or something like that.可以做到,但我觉得还不如直接装在屋顶上,那样可以一直对着太阳,不然车可能在阴凉处、被遮住了、或者停在车库里什么的。

1:29:02

Joe RoganYeah, didn't a Fisker have that on the roof, the Fisker Karma, new generation? For, I believe it was only for the radio, is that correct?对,Fisker 不是在车顶装了吗,Fisker Karma,新一代?我记得好像只是给收音机供电,是这样吗?

1:29:13

Elon MuskYeah, I mean I think it could recharge like two miles a day or something.对,我觉得一天大概能充 2 英里续航之类的吧。

1:29:17

Joe RoganDid you laugh when they started blowing up when they got hit with water? Do you remember what happened?那批车泡水就爆炸了,你有没有笑?你记得发生了什么吗?

1:29:22

Elon MuskThe what? Yeah, they had a dealership, or...?什么?对,他们有个经销商,还是……?

1:29:27

Joe RoganOh yeah, the Fisker Karmas were parked.对,那批 Fisker Karma 停在那儿。

1:29:28

Elon MuskWas that like that with a flood in Jersey?是不是新泽西洪水那次?

1:29:30

Joe RoganYes, yes, when the hurricane came in, they got overwhelmed with water and they all started exploding. This fucking great video of it, did you watch the video?对对对,飓风来了,它们被水淹了,然后全都开始爆炸。网上有段超棒的视频,你看了吗?

1:29:38

Elon MuskI didn't watch the video, but I did see that picture of the... it's being naked, lubed up.视频没看,但我看到那张照片了……那玩意儿暴露在外面,浑身湿透了。

1:29:45

Joe RoganWatched that video, laughed my ass off, they all blow up, they got wet and they blew up. That's not good.看了那个视频,我他妈笑死了,它们全都炸了,泡水就炸了。那可不行。

1:29:51

Elon MuskYeah, we made our battery waterproof, so that doesn't happen.对,我们把电池做成防水的了,所以不会发生那种情况。

1:29:54

Joe RoganSmart move.聪明。

1:29:54

Elon MuskYeah, there's a guy in Kazakhstan, I think it was Kazakhstan, that he just boated through a tunnel, an underwater tunnel, like a flooded tunnel, and just turned the wheels to steer and pressed the accelerator, and it just floated through the tunnel, and he steered around the other cars.对,有个人在哈萨克斯坦,我记得是哈萨克斯坦,他就直接开车穿过了一条隧道,被水淹的隧道,转方向盘控制方向、踩油门,车就这么漂过去了,他在那些被淹的车之间绕行过去了。

1:30:16

Joe RoganYou're like, that's amazing. It's on the internet. What happens if your car gets a little sideways, like if you're driving in snow, like what if your auto pilot is on and you're in like Denver and it snows out, and your car gets a little sideways, does it correct itself?你肯定觉得,太厉害了。而且有视频为证。如果车稍微侧滑了呢,比如你在大雪天开车,就像在丹佛下雪,自动驾驶开着,车稍微侧了一下,它会自己纠正吗?

1:30:34

Elon MuskOh yeah, it's got great traction control.哦,当然,牵引力控制很强。

1:30:36

Joe RoganBut does it know how to correct, do you know how like... oh yeah, your ass end kicks out, you know how to counter steer?但它知道怎么纠正吗,你懂那种感觉吧,车屁股甩出来了,知道怎么反打方向吗?

1:30:42

Elon MuskOh yeah, no it's really good, it knows how to do it.哦,当然,非常厉害,它知道怎么处理。

1:30:43

Joe RoganYeah, wow, it's pretty crazy.哇,挺疯狂的。

1:30:45

Elon MuskThat's pretty crazy, yeah.确实挺疯狂的。

1:30:47

Joe RoganSo like if you're going sideways it knows how to correct itself?所以如果车侧滑了,它知道怎么自我纠正?

1:30:50

Elon MuskIt generally won't go sideways.它通常不会侧滑到那种程度。

1:30:54

Joe RoganIt won't? No, why not?不会?为什么不会?

1:30:55

Elon MuskIt will correct itself before it goes sideways, even on black ice. There's this video where you could see the car... try it alone, the traction control system is very good. It makes you feel like Superman, it's great. It will make you feel like this incredible driver.在车侧滑之前它就会自我纠正,就算在黑冰上也一样。有个视频可以看到……自己试试吧,牵引力控制系统非常强。开起来会让你觉得自己是超人,太棒了。会让你觉得自己是个了不起的驾驶高手。

1:31:19

Joe RoganI believe it. Yeah, now how do you program...?我信。好,那你们是怎么……?

1:31:21

Elon MuskWe do our testing on like an ice lake in Sweden.我们在瑞典的冰湖上做测试。

1:31:25

Joe RoganOh really?真的?

1:31:25

Elon MuskYeah, and like Norway and Canada and a few other places.对,还有挪威、加拿大和其他几个地方。

1:31:27

Joe RoganPorsche does a lot of that too, New Zealand as well, they do a lot of their driver training school on these frozen surfaces. So you the car's going sideways whether you like it or not, and you have to learn how to slide into corners and how to adjust.Porsche 也做很多这样的测试,新西兰也是,他们在这些冰面上开大量驾驶培训课。车不可避免地会侧滑,你必须学会怎么侧进弯道、怎么调整。

1:31:45

Elon MuskWell, electric cars have really great traction control because the reaction time is so fast. So with the gasoline car you've got a lot of latency, it takes a while for the engine to react. But for electric motors, incredibly precise. That's why, you can imagine, if you had like a printer or something, you wouldn't have a gasoline engine printer, that would be pretty weird. Or like a surgical device, it's gonna be an electric motor on the surgical device, on the printer. Gasoline engine's gonna be just chugging away, it's not going to have the reaction time. But an electric motor, it's operating at the millisecond level, so it can turn on and off traction within like inches. Let's say you drive over a patch of ice, it'll turn traction off and then turn it on a couple inches right after the ice, like it's a little patch of ice.电动汽车的牵引力控制特别好,因为响应速度极快。汽油车有很大延迟,发动机响应需要时间。但电动机精准得令人难以置信。你可以想象,如果有一台打印机,你不会给它装汽油发动机,那太奇怪了。或者手术设备,手术设备肯定是电动马达,打印机也是。汽油发动机突突突跑着,根本没那个反应速度。但电动机在毫秒级别运作,可以在几英寸的距离内开关牵引力。比如你开过一块冰面,牵引力关掉,然后在冰块过完的几英寸之后立刻打开,就一小块冰。

1:32:47

Elon MuskBecause in the frame of the electric motor, you're moving incredibly slowly, you're like a snail, you're just moving so slowly, because it can see at a thousand frames a second. And so it's, say one Mississippi, it just thought about things a thousand times, so it's realized that your wheels are not getting traction, it understands there's some slippery surface that you're driving on, and it makes adjustments in real time, yes, in milliseconds.因为在电动机的时间框架里,你移动得极其缓慢,就像蜗牛一样,慢得惊人,因为它每秒能"看"一千帧。所以就说"一、二、三"这三个字的时间里,它已经思考了一千次,它知道你的轮子没有抓地力,知道你在打滑的路面上行驶,并实时做出调整,是的,在毫秒级别。

1:33:23

Joe RoganThat would be so much safer than a regular car. Yes, it is. Just that alone, for loved ones, you'd want them to be driving your car.那肯定比普通汽车安全得多。对,就光这一点,你就会希望自己爱的人开这辆车。

1:33:32

Elon MuskYes, I'm on board. The S, X, and 3 have the lowest probability of injury of any cars ever tested by the US government.是的,我完全认同。S、X 和 3 是美国政府有史以来测试过的所有车型中,受伤概率最低的。

1:33:43

Joe RoganWow. This is, yeah.哇。这……对。

1:33:50

Elon MuskBut it's pretty funny, it's pretty crazy, like, you know, people still sue us, like they'll have some accident at 60 miles an hour where they'd like twisted an ankle, and they'd be dead in another car, they still sue us. But that's to be expected.不过挺好笑的,也挺荒唐的——还是会有人起诉我们,比如以时速 60 英里发生了事故只是扭了个脚踝,换别的车他们早死了,他们还是要告我们。但这在意料之中。

1:34:05

Joe RoganIt is to be expected. Do you take that into account with like the same sort of fatalistic undertones, just sort of go, uh, you gotta just let it go, this is what people do?确实在意料之中。你看待这件事有一种宿命论色彩吗,就是说你会想,哎算了,这就是人们会做的事情?

1:34:19

Elon MuskI've got it, that's what it is, quite a lot of respect for the justice system. Judges are very smart, and they... I haven't, so far I've found judges to be very good at justice. And juries are good too, like they're actually quite good. You know, you read about like occasional errors in the justice system, let me tell you, most the time they're very good. And like, you know, the guy I mentioned that fell asleep in the car and he rode over a cyclist, and that was what encouraged me to get autopilot out as soon as possible, that guy sued us.我对司法系统有相当大的尊重。法官们非常聪明,他们……到目前为止,我发现法官们在维护公正方面非常出色。陪审团也不错,实际上很好。你会听到偶尔有司法系统出错的案例,但我告诉你,大多数时候他们表现得非常好。比如我之前提到的那个在车里睡着然后轧上了一个骑车人的人,那件事促使我尽快把自动驾驶推出来,结果那个人告了我们。

1:35:02

Joe RoganHe sued you for falling asleep?他因为自己睡着了来告你?

1:35:06

Elon MuskYes, I'm not kidding, he blames it on the new car smell.是的,我没开玩笑,他把责任归咎于新车气味。

1:35:10

Joe RoganWhat? Yes, he blamed him falling asleep.什么?是的,他把自己睡着了……

1:35:14

Joe RoganOn your new car smell, there's someone, there's a lawyer. This is a real thing. Somewhere there's a lawyer that thought that through, in front of his laptop before he wrote that up.归咎于你们的新车气味,有这样一个律师。这是真实发生的事。某个地方有一个律师,在写这份文书之前对着笔记本电脑认真想了这件事。

1:35:23

Elon MuskYes, he got a lawyer and he sued us, and the judge was like, this is crazy, stop bothering me.是的,他请了律师告我们,法官当时就说:这太荒唐了,别来烦我。

1:35:31

Joe RoganNo, thank god. Thank god there's a judge out there with a brain.谢天谢地。谢天谢地还有头脑清醒的法官。

1:35:35

Elon MuskI'll tell you, judges are very good, some of them.我跟你说,法官有很多都非常好。

1:35:37

Joe RoganWhat about that judgment, a lot of boys up the river in Pennsylvania, selling those kids out? You know about that story? Yeah, judge was selling young boys to prisons. He was like, literally, yeah, literally under bribes.那个判决呢,宾夕法尼亚那批孩子被送进监狱的事?你知道这件事吗?对,那个法官把未成年男孩卖给监狱。他是真的在收受贿赂。

1:35:53

Elon MuskWas this an elected judge, or somebody said you have a judge that's like actually a politician?那是民选法官,还是有人说你有个法官实际上是政客那种?

1:36:00

Joe RoganNo, he's an elected judge. This is a very famous story. He's in jail right now, I think for the rest of his life. He put away, he would take like a young boy would do something like steal something from a store, and he would put him in detention for, you know, five years, something ridiculously egregious. And they investigated his history and they found out that he was literally being paid off.不,他是民选法官。这是个很有名的案子。他现在在坐牢,我觉得是终身监禁。他的手法是,一个小男孩可能偷了商店里的东西,他就给判五年拘留,量刑离谱得令人发指。后来调查了他的历史,发现他是真的在收钱。

1:36:23

Elon MuskWas it by private prisons? Is that what the deal was?是私人监狱给他钱吗?是这个吗?

1:36:25

Joe RoganThere was some sort of, but anyway, this judges, two judges, kids for cash scandal is what it's called. 2008, yeah, common pleas judges.反正是某种……总之,这个案子叫做"kids for cash"(孩子换现金)丑闻,两名法官牵涉其中。2008 年的案子,对,普通诉讼法官。

1:36:38

Elon MuskSo I think they are elected, and who is paying them?所以我觉得他们是民选的,那谁在给他们钱?

1:36:41

Joe RoganUm, someone. It was proven to the point where they're in jail now, that someone was paying them to put more asses in the seats in these private prisons. A million dollar payment to put him in the youth centers, builder, a million dollar payment, yeah.有人。已经调查清楚了,证据确凿到他们现在都在坐牢,有人花钱让他们往私人监狱里多塞人。一百万美元,让他把人送进那些少年拘留中心,建设方来的,一百万,对。

1:36:57

Elon MuskI do think it's this private prisons thing is creating a bad incentive, right? But I mean, that judge is in prison.我确实认为私人监狱这件事制造了很坏的激励机制,对吧?但那个法官在坐牢。

1:37:08

Elon MuskFor people who think perhaps the justice system consists entirely of judges like that, I want to assure you this is not the case. The vast majority of judges are very good.对于那些或许觉得司法系统全都是那种法官的人,我想让你们放心,事实并非如此。绝大多数法官都是非常好的。

1:37:20

Joe RoganI agree.我同意。

1:37:21

Elon MuskThey care about justice, and they could have made a lot more money if they wanted to be a trial lawyer. And instead they cared about justice and they made less money because they care about justice, and that's why they're judges.他们是真的在乎公正,而且如果他们想赚钱,完全可以去做诉讼律师赚得更多。他们选择做法官,是因为在乎公正,宁愿少赚钱,这就是他们成为法官的原因。

1:37:31

Joe RoganI feel that same way about police officers. I feel like there's so many interactions with so many different people with police officers, that the very few that stand out that are horrific, we tend to look at that like this is evidence that police are all corrupt, and I think that's crazy.我对警察也有同样的感受。我觉得警察和那么多各种各样的人打交道,其中极少数骇人听闻的案例,我们往往会把它看成警察都是腐败的证据,我觉得那是荒唐的。

1:37:47

Elon MuskNo, most police are very honest. And the military personnel that I know are very honorable, ethical people, and much more ethical than the average person. That's my impression.不,大多数警察都非常诚实。我认识的那些军人也都是非常有荣誉感、有道德的人,而且比普通人有操守得多。这是我的感受。

1:38:02

Joe RoganThat's my impression as well. But that's not to suggest that we be complacent and assume everyone's honest and ethical.我的感受也是如此。但这不是说我们就可以自满地认为每个人都是诚实有道德的。

1:38:08

Elon MuskAnd obviously if somebody is given a trusted place in society, such as being a police officer or a judge, and they are corrupt, then we must be extra vigilant against such situations and take action. But we should not think that this is somehow broadly descriptive of people in that profession.显然,如果某个被社会赋予了信任地位的人——比如警察或法官——是腐败的,那我们对这种情况必须格外警惕并采取行动。但我们不应该认为这种情况能够广泛地代表该职业的所有人。

1:38:25

Joe RoganI couldn't agree more. I think there's also an issue with, one of the things that happens with police officers, prosecutors, and anyone that's trying to convict someone or arrest someone, is that it becomes a game, and in games people want to win, and sometimes people cheat.我完全同意。我觉得还有一个问题——警察、检察官,还有任何试图给某人定罪或逮捕某人的人,这件事会变成一场游戏,而在游戏里人们都想赢,有时候人们就会作弊。

1:38:44

Elon MuskYes, I mean, if you're a prosecutor, you should not always want to win. There are times when you should like, okay, I just should not want to win this case, and then, you know, just pass on that case.是的,我的意思是,如果你是检察官,你不应该总想着赢。有时候你应该想,好吧,这个案子我就不该想着赢,然后就放弃这个案子。

1:38:57

Joe RoganSometimes people want to win too much.有时候人们太想赢了。

1:38:58

Elon MuskThat is true. I think also it becomes tough if you're like a district attorney, you know, you tend to sort of see a lot of criminals, and then your view of the world can get negatively, you know, have a negative view of the world, because you're just interacting with a lot of criminals. But actually most of society is not consistent criminals, right? And I actually had this conversation at dinner several years ago with a district attorney. I was like, man, it must sometimes seem pretty dark, because, man, there's some terrible human beings out there. And he was like, yep. And he was dealing with some case which consisted of a couple of old ladies that would run people over somehow for insurance money. It was rough.这确实是真的。我觉得如果你是地区检察官,情况也会变得很难熬,你每天接触大量罪犯,对这个世界的看法就会变得很负面——因为你一直在跟大量罪犯打交道。但实际上社会上大多数人并不是惯犯,对吧?我几年前在一次晚宴上跟一位地区检察官聊到这个。我说,老兄,有时候看起来肯定挺黑暗的,因为外面真的有一些很可怕的人。他说,是啊。他当时正在处理一个案子,涉及几个老太太,她们用汽车撞人然后骗保险金。真的很触目惊心。

1:39:53

Joe RoganI was like, wow, that's pretty rough. It's like hard to maintain faith in humanity if you're a district attorney.哇,那真的挺惨的。如果你是地区检察官,真的很难对人类保持信心。

1:40:01

Elon MuskBut you know, it's only a few percent of society that are actually bad. And then if you go to the worst, say point one percent of society, or the worst one in a thousand, one in a million, you know, like how bad is the millionth worst person in the United States? Pretty damn bad, like damn evil. The millionth, well, one in a million of evil is so evil, people cannot even conceive of it. But there's 330 million people in the United States, so that's 330 people out there somewhere.但你知道,社会上真正坏的人只占几个百分点。如果你再往极端看,比如最坏的千分之一、百万分之一——美国最坏的那百万分之一的人有多坏?真他妈坏,简直是邪恶透顶。百万分之一的邪恶,那种邪恶程度是普通人根本无法想象的。但美国有3亿3000万人,所以那就意味着外面某个地方有330个这样的人。

1:40:37

Joe RoganBut by the same token, there's also 330 people who are incredible angels and unbelievably good human beings, on the other side. But because of our fear of danger, our thoughts tend to gravitate towards the worst case scenario.但从另一面看,也有330个人是难以置信的天使,是极好的人。只是因为我们对危险的恐惧,我们的思维总是往最坏的情况靠。

1:40:57

Elon MuskYes, and we want to frame that, and it's one of the real problems with prejudice.是的,我们想把它框定,这也是偏见真正带来的问题之一。

1:41:01

Joe RoganWe want, whether it's prejudice towards different minorities or prejudice towards police officers or anything, it's like we want to look at the worst case scenario and say this is an example of what this is all about. And you see that even with people how they frame genders. Some men frame women like that, they get ripped off by a few women and they decide all women are evil. Some women get screwed over by a few men, all men are bad. And this is very toxic, and it's also a very unbalanced way of viewing the world. And it's very emotionally based, and it's based on your own experience, your own anecdotal experience. And it can be very influential to the people around you, and it's just a dangerous way, a dangerous thought process and pattern to promote.不管是对不同少数群体的偏见,还是对警察的偏见,或者任何偏见,我们都想抓住最坏的情况说:这就是这一切的本质。你看,就连人们看待性别的方式也是这样。有些男人被几个女人坑了,就觉得所有女人都是坏的。有些女人被几个男人伤害了,就觉得所有男人都很糟糕。这非常有毒,也是一种极度失衡的世界观。这是非常情绪化的,基于你自己的经历、你个人的亲身体验。它对你周围的人影响极大,这是一种危险的思维方式,一种危险的思维模式,不该去宣扬。

1:41:48

Elon MuskIt is a very dangerous pattern. I really think people should give other people the benefit of the doubt and assume that they're good until proven otherwise. And I think really most people are actually pretty good people. Nobody's perfect.这确实是一种非常危险的模式。我真的认为,人们应该给彼此留有余地,假设对方是好人,除非有证据证明相反。我觉得大多数人实际上都是挺好的人,没有人是完美的。

1:42:03

Joe RoganThey have to be, if you think of the vast numbers of us that are just interacting with each other constantly. We have to be better than we think we are. There's no other way. I mean, hear all these weapons, like, but how many times, like nobody's presumably trying to murder you, and you're nobody.必须如此,你想想我们有那么庞大的数量,每天都在持续互动。我们必须比我们以为的更好,没有别的办法。我的意思是,身边有那么多武器,但有多少次,好像没有人打算谋杀你,而你又只是个普通人。

1:42:19

Elon MuskYes, nobody's like putting, that's right, it's right there.是的,没有人会,对,就摆在那儿。

1:42:20

Joe RoganFake flamethrower here. It's not a flamethrower.这是个假喷火器,它不是喷火器。

1:42:22

Elon MuskNow we got a real problem.现在我们有麻烦了。

1:42:24

Joe RoganI'm gonna put it on that side too, I'm gonna leave it for the guests. I'm like, look man, if I say something that's messed up, it's right there. So we'll liven things up for sure.我也要把它放到那边,留给嘉宾用。就是说,如果我说了什么不对劲的话,它就在那儿。绝对能让场面热闹起来。

1:42:34

Elon MuskIt's guaranteed to make any party better. Well, that's the armed civilization theory, right? That an armed community is a safe and polite community.保证能让任何派对更好玩。这就是武装文明理论,对吧?一个武装的社区是安全而有礼貌的社区。

1:42:49

Joe RoganTexas, it's kind of true. People in Texas are super polite and everyone's got a gun.Texas,这某种程度上是真的。Texas的人超级有礼貌,而且人手一把枪。

1:42:58

Elon MuskYes, don't make somebody angry, you don't know what's going to happen.是的,别让人家生气,你不知道会发生什么。

1:43:01

Joe RoganYeah, it's not a good move. Piss people off when everybody can have a gun. Off to just let that guy get in your lane.对,这不是明智之举。当人人都可以带枪的时候去惹人家,还不如就让那家伙超到你前面去。

1:43:09

Elon MuskYeah, you know, we got a big test site in central Texas near Waco, SpaceX, in McGregor. It's about 15 minutes away from Waco.是啊,你知道,我们在Texas中部Waco附近有一个大型测试基地,SpaceX的,在McGregor。离Waco大概15分钟的路程。

1:43:19

Joe RoganThat's close to where Ted Nugent lives. Shout out to Ted Nugent.那离Ted Nugent住的地方很近。向Ted Nugent致敬。

1:43:26

Elon MuskYeah, you know, we have lots of fire and loud explosions and things, and people like that. They're cool with it, they don't give a damn out there, they're very supportive.是啊,你知道,我们那儿有很多火焰和巨响以及各种爆炸,当地人都很喜欢。他们觉得挺酷的,完全不在意,非常支持我们。

1:43:34

Joe RoganYeah, that you can buy fireworks where your kids go to school. It's, you know, it's dangerous, but it's free.是啊,那种地方,孩子上学的路上你就能买到烟火。挺危险的,但是自由。

1:43:44

Joe RoganThere's something about Texas that's very enticing because of that. It is dangerous, but it's also free, right?Texas有种东西特别吸引人,就是因为这个。危险,但也自由,对吧?

1:43:50

Elon MuskYeah, I kind of like Texas actually. I prefer it over places that are more restrictive but more liberal, because you could always be liberal. Just because things are free and just because you have a certain amount of, you know, right wing type characters, it doesn't mean you have to be that way. And honestly, there's a lot of those people that are pretty open-minded and let you do whatever you want to do, right? You don't bother them.是的,我其实挺喜欢Texas的。比起那些更受限制但更自由派的地方,我更喜欢Texas,因为你随时可以保持自由派的生活方式。只是因为那里相对自由,或者有一定数量的、你知道,偏右翼风格的人,并不意味着你就得那样。说真的,那里很多人其实挺开明的,让你做你想做的事,只要你不打扰他们。

1:44:17

Joe RoganYeah, exactly. That's my hope right now with the way we're able to communicate with each other today, and how radically different it is than generations past, is that we all, just the dust settles and we all realize, like what you were saying, that most people are good.对,就是这样。这是我现在对我们彼此沟通方式的期望——和过去几代人相比,现在的沟通方式已经彻底不同了——就是灰尘终将落定,我们都会意识到,就像你说的,大多数人都是好人。

1:44:32

Elon MuskMost people are good, the vast majority. Yes, I think you should give people the benefit of that for sure.大多数人都是好人,绝大多数。是的,我觉得你绝对应该给人们留有这样的余地。

1:44:37

Joe RoganI think you're right. Yeah, you know who can help that? Mushrooms.我觉得你说得对。你知道谁能帮到这一点吗?蘑菇。

1:44:44

Elon MuskDon't you think they're delicious?你不觉得它们很好吃吗?

1:44:47

Joe RoganYeah, right.哈,对。

1:44:48

Elon MuskYeah, they're good for you too, all of them, all kinds of them.对,它们对你也有好处,所有的蘑菇,各种各样的。

1:44:55

Joe RoganWhat do you see in terms of like, when you think about the future of your companies, what do you see as like bottlenecks?你觉得你旗下公司的未来,有哪些瓶颈呢?

1:45:02

Elon MuskYou want some more of those? Sure. Thank you.还要一些吗?好的,谢谢。

1:45:04

Joe RoganWhat do you see in terms of like bottlenecks, of things that are holding back innovation? Is it regulatory commissions and people that don't understand the technology that are influencing policy? Like what could potentially be holding you guys back right now? Is there anything that you would change?你觉得有哪些瓶颈,是在阻碍创新的?是监管机构,是那些不懂技术却在影响政策的人吗?现在是什么东西可能在拖你们的后腿?有什么你想改变的吗?

1:45:29

Elon MuskYeah, that's a good question. You know, I wish politicians were better at science. That would help a lot. That's a problem.这是个好问题。你知道,我希望政客们在科学方面能更强一些,那会有很大帮助。这是个问题。

1:45:42

Joe RoganYes, there's no incentive for them to be good at science.是的,他们没有动力去精通科学。

1:45:45

Elon MuskThere isn't. Actually, you know, they're pretty good at science in China, I have to say. The mayor of Beijing, I believe, has an environmental engineering degree, and the deputy mayor has a physics degree. I met them. And the mayor of Shanghai is really smart.确实没有。其实,说实话,中国在这方面做得挺好的。北京市长,我记得,是学环境工程出身,副市长有物理学学位。我见过他们。上海市长也非常聪明。

1:46:03

Joe RoganAnd you're up on technology. What do you think about this government policy of stopping use of Huawei phones? There's something about the worry about spying. I mean, from what I understand from real tech people, they think it's horseshit.你在科技方面很在行。你怎么看政府禁止使用Huawei手机这件事?说是担心间谍问题。据我了解,真正懂技术的人觉得这是胡扯。

1:46:23

Elon MuskOh, I like phones. I don't know.哦,我喜欢手机。我不太清楚这个。

1:46:26

Joe RoganLike the government says don't you buy Huawei phones. Does that, are you up on that at all? No? Should we just abandon this idea?就是政府说别买Huawei手机。你了解这个吗?完全没关注?那我们跳过这个话题吧?

1:46:35

Elon MuskWell, I think, I guess if you have like top secret stuff, then you want to be pretty careful about what hardware you use. But you know, most people do not have top secret stuff. And nobody really cares what porn you watch, you know. It's like nobody actually cares. And if they do, that's kind of on them. National spy agencies do not give a rat's ass what porn you watch, they do not care. So like, what secrets does a national spy agency have to learn from the average citizen? Nothing.好吧,我觉得,如果你手上有什么绝密的东西,那你在用什么硬件这方面确实要非常小心。但你知道,大多数人手上根本没有绝密的东西。而且没人真的在乎你看什么色情片,真的没人在乎。如果他们在乎,那是他们的问题。国家情报机构根本不在乎你看什么色情片,真的不在乎。那么,国家情报机构能从普通公民那里获取什么秘密?什么都没有。

1:47:15

Joe RoganWell, that's the argument against the narrative, and the argument by a lot of these tech people is that the real concern is that these companies like Huawei are innovating at a radical pace, and they're trying to stop them from integrating into our culture and letting this, like right now they're the number two cell phone manufacturer in the world. Okay, Samsung's number one, Huawei is number two, Apple is now number three, they surpassed Apple. And the idea is that this is all taking place without them having any foothold whatsoever in America. There are no carriers that have their phones, you have to buy their phones unlocked through some sort of a third party and then put it, okay. So the worry is, you know, that these are somehow another controlled by the Chinese government, the communist Chinese government is going to distribute these phones, and I don't know if it's the worries economic influence, that they'll have too much power, I don't know what it is. Are you paying attention on any of this?好吧,这是反驳那个叙事的论点,很多科技人的论点是,真正令人担忧的是,像Huawei这样的公司正在以惊人的速度创新,而那些人试图阻止它们融入我们的文化。就说现在,Huawei已经是全球第二大手机制造商了。三星第一,Huawei第二,Apple已经跌到第三,被Huawei超过了。而这一切都是在它们在美国毫无立足点的情况下发生的。没有任何运营商卖它们的手机,你得去第三方渠道买裸机然后自己搞定。所以担忧在于,这些手机某种程度上受中国政府控制,中国共产党政府会通过分发这些手机来……我不知道是担心经济影响力,还是担心它们会拥有太大的权力,我说不准。你有关注这些吗?

1:48:14

Elon MuskNot really. You know, I don't think we should worry too much about Huawei phones. You know, maybe our national security agencies shouldn't have Huawei phones, maybe that's a question mark. But I think for the average citizen it doesn't matter. No, they're not, I'm pretty sure the Chinese government does not care about the goings-on of the average American citizen.没太关注。我不觉得我们需要过于担心Huawei手机。也许国家安全机构不该用Huawei手机,这可能是个问号。但对普通公民来说,我觉得无所谓。不,我基本可以肯定,中国政府不在乎普通美国公民的日常动向。

1:48:38

Joe RoganIs there a time where you think that there will be no security, will be impossible to hold back information, that whatever bottleneck we'll let go, we're gonna give in, that whatever bottleneck between privacy and ultimate innovation will have to be bridged in order for us to achieve the next level of technological proficiency, that we're just going to abandon it, and there'll be no security, no privacy?你觉得有没有这样一个时刻——安全将不复存在,信息无法阻拦,我们不得不放弃——隐私与终极创新之间的那道闸门终将被打破,为了达到下一个技术水平我们不得不跨越它,我们就这样放弃了,不再有安全,不再有隐私?

1:49:09

Elon MuskDo people want privacy? Because they seem to put everything on the internet.人们真的想要隐私吗?因为他们好像把所有东西都放到网上了。

1:49:13

Joe RoganWell, right now they're confused. But when you're talking about your Neuralink and this idea that one day we are going to be able to share information, we're going to be some sort of a thing that's symbiotically connected.好吧,现在他们自己也搞不清楚。但你在谈Neuralink,谈有一天我们能够共享信息,变成某种共生连接的存在。

1:49:25

Elon MuskYeah, I think we really need to worry about security in that situation, for sure. That's like security paramount.是的,我觉得在那种情况下我们真的需要非常重视安全,绝对是。安全是重中之重。

1:49:31

Joe RoganSure, yeah. But also what we will be is will be so much different. Our concerns about money, about status, about, well, all these things will seemingly go by the wayside if we really become enlightened, if we really become artificially enlightened by some sort of an AI interface where we have this symbiotic relationship with some new internet type connection to information. What happens then? What is important, what is not important? Is privacy important when we're all gods?当然,是的。但那个时候的我们也会截然不同。我们对金钱的执念、对地位的执念,所有这些东西,如果我们真的被某种AI接口彻底启迪——通过与某种新型互联网式的信息连接建立共生关系而获得人工启迪——这些东西似乎都会消散。那时候什么重要,什么不重要?当我们都是神的时候,隐私还重要吗?

1:50:13

Elon MuskI mean, I think the things that we think are important to keep private right now, we probably will not think are shameful information, right?我的意思是,我觉得我们现在认为必须保密的那些东西,未来我们可能根本不会觉得那是什么丢人的信息,对吧?

1:50:25

Joe RoganWhat do you hide? Emotions? What are we hiding?我们在隐藏什么?情绪吗?我们在藏什么?

1:50:29

Elon MuskI mean, I think, I don't know, maybe it's like embarrassing stuff, right? But there's actually, I think people, there's not that much that's kept private that is actually relevant, that other people actually care about. And we think other people care about it, but they don't really care about it, and certainly governments don't.我的意思是,我不知道,也许是一些让人尴尬的事情吧。但实际上,我觉得人们所保密的那些东西,真正有意义的、别人真正在乎的,其实少之又少。我们觉得别人会在乎,但他们其实根本不在乎,政府当然更不在乎。

1:50:51

Joe RoganWell, some people care about it, but then it gets weird when it gets exposed, like Jennifer Lawrence, when those naked pictures of her got exposed. Like, I think in some ways people liked her more, they realized like she's just a person, just a girl who likes sex and is just alive and has a boyfriend and sends them messages. And now you get to look into it, and you probably shouldn't have, but somebody let it go and they put it online. She seems to be doing okay. She's a person, she's just you and me, it's the same thing. She's just in some weird place where she's on a 35 foot tall screen with music playing every time she talks.好吧,有些人确实在乎,但当它被曝光时就变得奇怪了,比如Jennifer Lawrence,当她的裸照被曝光的时候。我觉得在某种程度上人们反而更喜欢她了,他们意识到她只是一个普通人,就是一个喜欢性爱、活生生的、有男友、会发消息的女孩。现在你有机会窥探一眼,你本来不该的,但有人把它放出来传到了网上。她看起来过得还挺好的。她就是个普通人,和你我一样,只是身处一个奇怪的位置——每次她开口说话,面前就是35英尺高的大屏幕,还配着音乐。

1:51:30

Elon MuskYeah, I mean, I'm sure she's not happy about it, but she's clearly doing fine.是啊,我觉得她肯定不乐意,但她显然过得挺好的。

1:51:38

Joe RoganBut once this interface is fully realized, where we really do become something far more powerful in terms of our cognitive ability, or our ability to understand irrational thoughts and mitigate them, and that we're all connected in some sort of an insane way, what our thoughts on wealth, our thoughts on social status, like how many of those just evaporate? And our need for privacy, maybe our need for privacy will be the ultimate bottleneck that we'll have to substitute, that we'll have to surpass.但一旦这种接口完全实现——我们真的在认知能力方面变得强大得多,或者能够理解并化解非理性想法,而且我们以某种疯狂的方式彼此相连——那时候我们对财富的想法、对社会地位的想法,有多少会消失?我们对隐私的需求,也许正是那个我们最终不得不放弃、不得不超越的终极瓶颈。

1:52:13

Elon MuskI think the things that we think are important now will probably not be important in the future, but there will be things that are important.我觉得我们现在认为重要的东西,将来很可能不会重要,但届时还是会有一些东西是重要的。

1:52:22

Joe RoganWhat would be more different things?那会是哪些不同的东西?

1:52:25

Elon MuskI know there might be some more of ideas potentially. I don't think Darwin's going away, right?我知道,可能会有更多关于思想的问题。达尔文不会消失,对吧?

1:52:33

Joe RoganNo, one's going to be there. Darwin will be there forever, forever.不会,那个会一直在。达尔文永远在那里,永远。

1:52:40

Elon MuskYeah, it would just be a different arena.是的,只是换了一个舞台。

1:52:45

Joe RoganDifferent arena, a digital arena.换个舞台,一个数字舞台。

1:52:47

Elon MuskDifferent arena. Darwin's not going away.换个舞台。达尔文不会消失。

1:52:53

Joe RoganWhat keeps you up at night?什么让你夜不能寐?

1:52:57

Elon MuskWell, it's quite hard to run companies, especially car companies, I have to say. It's quite challenging.嗯,经营公司真的很难,尤其是汽车公司,我得说。相当有挑战性。

1:53:02

Joe RoganThe car business is the hardest one of all the things you do?汽车业是你所做的所有事情中最难的?

1:53:06

Elon MuskYes, because it's a consumer-oriented business, as opposed to like SpaceX. Not that SpaceX is no walk in the park, but a car company, it's very difficult to keep a car company alive. It's very difficult. You know, there's only two car companies in the history of American car companies that haven't gone bankrupt, and that's Ford and Tesla. That's it.是的,因为它是面向消费者的生意,不像SpaceX那样。不是说SpaceX很轻松,但汽车公司真的很难维持运营,非常难。你知道,在美国汽车公司的历史上,只有两家从未破产,那就是Ford和Tesla。就这两家。

1:53:30

Joe RoganYeah, Ford rode out that crazy storm, huh? They're the only ones, by the skin of their teeth. Shout out to the Mustang.是的,Ford熬过了那场疯狂的风暴,对吧?他们是唯一一家,险之又险。向Mustang致敬。

1:53:41

Elon MuskYeah, by the skin of their teeth. That is interesting, right? Same with Tesla, we barely survived.是的,险之又险。这很有意思,对吧?Tesla也一样,我们当时差点撑不下去。

1:53:44

Joe RoganHow close did you get to folding?你们最接近倒闭的时候是什么情况?

1:53:49

Elon MuskVery close. 2008 is not a good time to be a car company, especially a startup car company, and especially an electric car company. That was like stupidity squared.非常接近。2008年可不是做汽车公司的好时机,尤其是初创汽车公司,而且还是电动汽车公司。那简直是愚蠢的平方。

1:54:00

Joe RoganAnd this is when you had those cool roadsters with the T-top, yeah, with the targa top.就是你们那时候出那款很酷的敞篷Roadster,对,targa顶那款。

1:54:04

Elon MuskYeah, we had like, it was a highly modified Elise chassis, the body was all completely different. By the way, that was a super dumb strategy that we actually did. It was dumb. It was based on two false premises. One false premise was that we'd be able to cheaply convert the Lotus Elise and use that as a car platform. And that we would be able to use technology from this little company called AC Propulsion for the electric drivetrain and the battery. Problem is, the AC Propulsion technology did not work in production, and we ended up using none of it in the long term, none of it. We had to redesign everything. And then once you add a battery pack, an electric motor to the car, it got heavier, got 30 percent heavier, invalidated the entire structure, all the crash structure, everything had to be redone. I think it had less than seven percent of the parts were common with any other device, including cars or anything.是的,那是一个高度改装版的Lotus Elise底盘,车身完全不同。顺便说一句,那个策略实际上非常愚蠢。真的很蠢。它建立在两个错误的前提上。第一个错误前提是,我们能够廉价地改装Lotus Elise,以它为车辆平台。第二个是,我们能够使用一家叫AC Propulsion的小公司的技术来做电动传动系统和电池。问题是,AC Propulsion的技术根本无法投入量产,最终我们长期来看一点都没有用它的东西,完全没用。我们不得不重新设计一切。而且一旦你往车里加了电池组和电动机,车就变重了,重了30%,整个车体结构就作废了,所有碰撞结构,所有的东西都得重做。我记得最后和其他设备——包括汽车或任何东西——共用零件的比例不到7%。

1:55:11

Joe RoganThat's the seven percent?只有7%?

1:55:14

Elon MuskYes, everything including tires and wheels, bolts, brakes, yeah, even the steering wheel.是的,包括轮胎、轮毂、螺栓、刹车,还有,甚至方向盘都是不同的。

1:55:22

Joe RoganSee, the steering wheel was, I think the steering wheel was almost the same.我记得方向盘好像几乎是一样的。

1:55:26

Elon MuskYes.是的。

1:55:29

Joe RoganThe windscreen, is it different?挡风玻璃,不一样吗?

1:55:32

Elon MuskNo, I think the windscreen is the same, same. Yes, I think we were able to keep this last seven percent. So basically every body panel is different, the entire structure was different. We couldn't use the HVAC system, the air conditioner was a belt-driven air conditioner, so now we needed something that was electrically driven, we needed a new AC compressor.不,我记得挡风玻璃是一样的,一样的。是的,我觉得那最后7%我们保留下来了。基本上每个车身面板都是不同的,整个结构都是不同的。我们无法使用原来的暖通空调系统,空调是皮带驱动的,所以现在我们需要电动驱动的,需要一个新的电动压缩机。

1:55:53

Joe RoganAnd all that takes away from the battery life as well, right?而且这些都会消耗电池续航,对吧?

1:55:57

Elon MuskYeah, we needed a small, highly efficient air conditioning system that fit in a tiny car and was electrically powered, not belt driven. It was very difficult.是的,我们需要一个小型、高效的空调系统,能塞进一辆小车里,而且是电动驱动的,不是皮带驱动。非常困难。

1:56:07

Joe RoganHow much did those weigh, those cars, the roadster?那些Roadster有多重?

1:56:10

Elon MuskI think it was about twenty seven hundred pounds.我记得大概是2700磅左右。

1:56:14

Joe RoganThat's still very sound, depending on which version.那还不错,取决于是哪个版本。

1:56:15

Elon MuskTwenty six fifty to twenty seven fifty pounds, something like that.2650到2750磅,大概这个范围。

1:56:19

Joe RoganAnd what was the weight distribution?那重量分配是多少?

1:56:22

Elon MuskIt was about fifty, well, there were different versions of the car, so it was about 55 on the rear because it was rear biased. But not bad, like considering like a 911 which is like one of the most popular sports cars of all time.大概是50,嗯,不同版本有差异,后轴大约是55,因为是后置偏向的。但还不算太坏,考虑到911这种有史以来最受欢迎的跑车之一。

1:56:38

Joe RoganHeavy rear end bias, well, I mean, yeah, the 911, I think the joke is like they managed to, despite Newton not being on their side.严重后置重心,是的,911,我觉得笑话就在于他们居然做到了,尽管牛顿不站在他们这边。

1:56:50

Elon MuskYeah, if you're fighting Newton it's very difficult.是啊,和牛顿作对是非常艰难的。

1:56:53

Joe RoganWell, it's like you've got those moments of inertia on a 911, don't make any sense.就是911那个转动惯量,根本说不通。

1:56:57

Elon MuskThey do once you understand them. Once you understand, you don't want to hang the engine off the ass, this is not a wise move. You don't want to let up on the gas when you're in a corner. The problem with something that's where the engine is mounted over the rear axle, or off the rear axle towards the rear, is that your moment of inertia is fundamentally screwed, you cannot solve this. It's unsolvable, you're screwed. Like essentially if you spin the car like a top, that's your problem, moment of inertia, you're just. I promised I wouldn't swear on this show, by the way.一旦你理解了就说得通了。一旦你明白,把发动机悬挂在屁股上,这不是个明智的做法。在弯道里你不能松油门。问题在于,当发动机装在后桥上方或者后桥靠后的位置,你的转动惯量从根本上就是一塌糊涂,根本无解,你没救了。基本上就好比把车像陀螺一样旋转,那就是你的问题,转动惯量,你就是……顺便说一句,我说过我在这个节目上不爆粗口的。

1:57:37

Joe RoganReally? To who?真的吗?跟谁说的?

1:57:39

Elon MuskBecause it was my friend.因为是我的一个朋友。

1:57:40

Joe RoganTell that friend to go fuck himself. Who told you not to swear? I'm afraid I'm not a good friend.让那个朋友去他妈的。谁叫你别爆粗口?我恐怕不是什么好朋友。

1:57:46

Elon MuskYes, definitely.是的,肯定的。

1:57:47

Joe RoganRealize you're fucking Elon Musk, you can do whatever you want, man. If you ever get confused, call me, I'll swear in private. Swear up a storm. Just say fricken, it's a fun way. There's like old house moms, wives and shit that have children, oh this freaking thing.搞清楚你他妈是Elon Musk好吗,你想干什么就干什么。如果你搞混了,给我打电话,我私下替你爆粗口。爆个够。就说"他妈的"就挺好的,挺好玩的方式。就像那些老妈妈,有孩子的主妇们,哦这个该死的东西。

1:58:08

Elon MuskYeah, but anyway, like the Porsche is kind of incredible how well Porsche handles given that, it's the physics, the moments of inertia are so messed up, to actually still make it work well is incredible.是的,不管怎样,Porsche真的挺了不起的,考虑到那些物理条件,它居然能处理得那么好,转动惯量那么混乱,还能让它运作良好,真的令人惊叹。

1:58:20

Joe RoganWell, if you know how to turn into the corner, once you get used to the feeling of it, there's actual benefits to it. You know, there are some benefits. I enjoy, the car I had before Tesla was a 911.好吧,如果你知道怎么切入弯道,一旦习惯了那种感觉,其实是有好处的。确实有一些优势。在Tesla之前我开的是911。

1:58:33

Elon MuskOh, okay, that was 997 or six?哦,是吗,是997还是996?

1:58:37

Joe RoganYeah, 997, yeah. Great car, man.对,997,是的。很棒的车,真的。

1:58:41

Elon MuskYeah, I mean particularly with on the Porsche, when they had the variable vanes, the turbo, and you didn't have the turbo lag, that was great.是的,特别是Porsche上有可变叶片,涡轮,没有涡轮迟滞,那真的很棒。

1:58:47

Joe RoganYeah, that was really great. The turbo lag is like, you know, if you floor it, like, phone home, call your mom, the older one, about an hour later the car accelerates. And super dangerous too, because then the rear wheels start spinning.是的,确实很棒。涡轮迟滞那个感觉,就是,你一脚油门踩到底,就像,打电话给你妈,打给年长那个,大概一个小时之后车才开始加速。而且超级危险,因为后轮就开始打滑。

1:59:02

Elon MuskYeah, yeah.是的,是的。

1:59:04

Joe RoganThere's something fun about it though, like feeling that rear weight kicking around, you know.但也有种乐趣,感受那个后部重量甩出来的感觉,你懂的。

1:59:08

Elon MuskAnd again, it's quite efficient.而且说起来它还挺高效的。

1:59:08

Joe RoganA good feel to it, yeah. Yeah, I agree, but that's what I was talking about earlier about that little car that I have, the 93 911. It's just, it's not fast, it's not the best handling car, but it's more satisfying than any other car I have, because it's so mechanical. It's like everything about it crackles and bumps, and it gives you all this feedback. And I take it to the comedy store, because when I get there I feel like my brain is just popping and it's on fire. It's like a strategy for me now that I really stopped driving other cars there. I drive that car there just for the brain juice, just for the interaction.感觉很好,是的。我同意,但这就是我之前说的,我那辆93款的911。它不快,也不是最好操控的车,但它比我拥有的任何车都更令人满足,因为它太机械了。每一点都在咔哒咔哒响、颠颠跳跳,给你大量反馈。我开它去Comedy Store,到了那里我感觉大脑就像要爆炸了,在燃烧。这对我来说已经成了一种策略——我基本上不再开其他车去那里了,就开那辆车,就为了那种大脑被点燃的感觉,就为了那种互动体验。

1:59:50

Elon MuskI mean, you should try Model S P100D, I'll try to blow your mind, your skull.我的意思是,你应该试试Model S P100D,我要让你的大脑飞出颅骨。

1:59:54

Joe RoganOkay, yeah, tell me what to order, I'll order it.好的,好,告诉我订什么,我去订。

1:59:58

Elon MuskModel S P100D, okay, Jamie, that's the best car that I drive.Model S P100D,好的,Jamie,那是我开的最好的车。

2:00:02

Joe RoganOkay, I'll get the car you drive, okay.好,我去买你开的那款车,好。

2:00:05

Elon MuskIt will blow your mind out of your skull.它会把你的大脑从颅骨里炸飞的。

2:00:07

Joe RoganI believe you. How far can I drive?我信你。能开多远?

2:00:09

Elon MuskHow far? About 300 miles, that's good for LA. Regular days you will never notice the battery, never.多远?大约300英里,对于洛杉矶来说够用了。平常日子你永远不会注意到电池,永远不会。

2:00:16

Joe RoganNever. How hard is it to get like one of them crazy plugs installed in your house? That difficult?永远不会。在家里装那种疯狂的插头难不难?麻不麻烦?

2:00:22

Elon MuskNo, it's super easy. It's like, yeah, it's like a dryer plug, it's like a dryer outlet.不,超简单。就像烘干机插头,就是烘干机那种插座。

2:00:26

Joe RoganDidn't you come up with some crazy tiles for your roof that are solar paneled?你有没有搞出什么疯狂的太阳能屋顶瓦片?

2:00:30

Elon MuskYeah, yeah, I have it on my roof right now actually. I'm just trying it out. It's the thing, it takes a while to test roof stuff because roofs have to last a long time, right? So you want your roof to last like 30 years over a regular roof. So there's two versions. There's like the solar panels you put on a roof, so depending on whether your roof's new or old, so if your roof's new, you don't want to replace the roof, you want to put like solar panels on the roof, right? So that's like retrofit, you know, and then we're trying to make the retrofit panels look real nice. And then the new product we're coming out with is, if you have a roof that's either you're building a house or you're gonna replace your roof anyway, then you make the tiles have solar cells embedded in the tiles. And then it's quite a tricky thing because you want to not see the solar cell behind the glass tile, so you have to really work with the glass and the various coatings and layers so that you don't see the solar cell behind the glass, otherwise it doesn't look right.是的,是的,我现在屋顶上就有。我只是在试用它。这东西有个问题,测试屋顶产品需要很长时间,因为屋顶得用很久,对吧?你希望你的屋顶用30年,超过普通屋顶的使用寿命。有两个版本。一种是把太阳能板装在现有屋顶上——根据你的屋顶是新还是旧来决定——如果屋顶是新的,你不想换屋顶,你就直接在屋顶上装太阳能板,对吧?这就是改装,你知道,然后我们在努力让改装面板看起来更好看。另一个是我们正在推出的新产品——如果你要建新房子,或者不管怎样都要换屋顶,那就把太阳能电池嵌入瓦片里。这其中有个很棘手的问题,你不想透过玻璃瓦看到里面的太阳能电池,所以你必须在玻璃和各种涂层、层次上下很大功夫,让你从外面看不到玻璃后面的太阳能电池,否则看起来就不对。

2:01:35

Joe RoganSo it's really tricky. There it is, Jamie put it up there. Yeah, and that looks good. See, is there a, see like if you look closely you can see if you're zooming, like you can see the cell, but if you zoom out you don't see the cell, right? Well, it looks cool though, like that's hard visible.所以真的很棘手。来了,Jamie把它放上来了。是的,看起来不错。你看,如果仔细看,放大的话你能看到电池,但缩小了就看不到,对吧?好吧,看起来挺酷的,那个真的很难辨认。

2:01:52

Elon MuskIt's really hard because you have to have sunlight go through, but when it gets reflected back out, it hides the fact that there's a cell there.真的很难,因为你必须让阳光透进去,但当光线反射出来的时候,它会遮住里面有太阳能电池这个事实。

2:02:02

Joe RoganNow are those available to the consumer right now?这些现在消费者能买到吗?

2:02:05

Elon MuskWell, we have, I think those on that roof right there.嗯,我觉得那个屋顶上就有。

2:02:08

Joe RoganYes, that's amazing. Oh, that looks good. Yeah, oh, I like that. That one's hard. Oh, so you got that kind of fake Spanish looking thing.是的,太棒了。哦,那看起来很好。是的,哦,我喜欢那个。那个真的很难辨认。哦,那种仿西班牙风格的东西。

2:02:19

Elon MuskI like that.我喜欢那个。

2:02:21

Joe RoganThat's French slate, that's white people in Connecticut smoking pipes. Look at that one. Yeah, that's badass, dude. So those all actually work? I believe you. So the solar panels that are on that house that we just looked at, is that sufficient to power the entire home?那是法式石板,那是Connecticut叼着烟斗的白人风格。看那个。是的,那个真牛,兄弟。所以那些都真的能用吗?我信你。那么我们刚才看的那栋房子上的太阳能板,够给整个房子供电吗?

2:02:39

Elon MuskIt depends on your energy, on how, yeah. So generally yes, I would say it's probably for most, it's going to vary, but anywhere from more than you need to maybe half, like call it a half to 1.5 of the energy that you need, depending on how much roof you have relative to living space, and how ridiculous you are with the TV. TV is no problem. Air conditioning, air conditioning, okay, air conditioning is the problem. If you have an efficient air conditioner, and you don't, and depending on how, like are you air conditioning rooms when they don't need to be air conditioned, which is very common because it's a pain in the neck, it's like programming a VCR, it's like, right, you know, it's just the blinking 12, and so people just like, hell with that, I'm just going to make it this temperature all day long.这取决于你的用电量,以及……是的。一般来说,我觉得大多数情况下,具体会有差异,但从你所需电量的一半到1.5倍都有可能,取决于你的屋顶面积和居住空间的比例,以及你用电视有多疯狂。电视不成问题。空调,空调,好吧,空调才是问题。如果你用的是高效空调,不让它去给那些不需要制冷的房间制冷——这很常见,因为太麻烦了,就像给VCR编程一样,就是那个一直闪烁的12点,人们就想,算了,我就整天维持这个温度好了。

2:03:33

Joe RoganRight, you don't have a smart home where if you're in the room then it stays cool.对,你没有智能家居,在你进去的房间保持凉爽。

2:03:37

Elon MuskYeah, it should predict when you're going to be home, and then cool the rooms that you're likely to use, with a little bit of intelligence. We're not talking about like genius home here, we're just talking like elementary basic stuff. You know, like if you could hook that into the car, like it knows you're coming home, like there's no point in cooling the home, keeping the whole home really cool when you're not there, right? But it can tell that you're coming home, it's going to cool it to the right temperature.是的,它应该能预测你什么时候到家,然后给你可能会用到的房间降温,只需要一点点智能。我们说的不是什么天才智能家居,只是最基础的初级功能。你知道,如果能和汽车联动,它知道你要回家了——没必要在你不在家的时候把整个家都保持非常凉爽,对吧?但它能判断你要回家了,就提前降到合适的温度。

2:04:06

Joe RoganRight, you have an app there that works with your solar panels or anything like that?对,你有没有那种能配合太阳能板使用的App或者类似的东西?

2:04:12

Elon MuskYeah, yeah, we do, and we need to hook it into the air conditioning to really make the air conditioning work.有的,有的,我们确实有,我们需要把它和空调系统打通,这样才能真正让空调发挥作用。

2:04:17

Joe RoganHave you thought about creating an air conditioning system你有没有考虑过做一个空调系统——

2:04:27

Elon MuskCannot answer questions about future potential. Okay, let's just let it go, we'll move on to the next thing.不能回答关于未来潜在产品的问题。好,就放这儿,我们继续下一个。

2:04:31

Joe RoganThat would be an interesting idea. Now when you think about the efficiency of these homes and you think about implementing solar power and battery power, is there anything else that people are missing? Is there any other, like, I just saw a smart watch that is powered by the heat of the human body. It's some new technology, it's able to fully power that way.那会是个有趣的想法。现在当你考虑这些房屋的效率,考虑太阳能和电池供电的推广,还有什么是人们忽视的吗?有没有别的什么,比如,我刚看到一款智能手表,靠人体体温供电。是某种新技术,据说能完全依靠这种方式供电。

2:05:02

Elon MuskI don't know if it's fully or if it's like this watch right here. This is a Casio.我不知道是完全,还是类似于这只手表。这是一只Casio。

2:05:06

Joe RoganOkay, it's called a Pro Trek and it's like an outdoors watch and it's solar-powered. So it has the ability to operate for a certain amount of time on solar.好的,它叫Pro Trek,是户外腕表,靠太阳能供电。它能靠太阳能运行一段时间。

2:05:16

Elon MuskYeah, so if you have it exposed it could function for a certain amount of time on solar. Well, you know, like there's the self-winding watches where it's just got a weight in the watch, and as you move your wrist the weight moves from one side to the other and it winds the watch up. That's a pretty cool thing.是的,如果你把它暴露在光线下,它可以靠太阳能运行一段时间。嗯,你知道,有那种自动上弦的手表,里面就有个重锤,随着你手腕的动作,重锤从一侧晃到另一侧,给手表上弦。这挺酷的一件事。

2:05:32

Joe RoganYeah, well it's amazing that, like, Rolex, it's all done mechanically. There's no batteries in there, there's nothing.是的,而且太神奇了,就像Rolex,完全是机械驱动的。没有电池,什么都没有。

2:05:38

Elon MuskYeah, you could do the same thing, create a little charger that's based on wrist movement. It really depends on how much energy your watch uses.是的,你也可以做类似的东西,做一个基于手腕运动的小型充电器。关键在于你的手表到底耗多少电。

2:05:45

Joe RoganYou know what's fucked up about that, though, we accept a certain amount of, like, shit with those watches. Like, I brought my watch, I have a Rolex that my friend Lorenzo gave me, and I brought it to the watch store and I said this thing's always fast. I said it's always, like, after a couple months it's like five minutes fast. And they go, yep, they go, yeah, really, it's just what it does. And I go, hold on, I go, so you're telling me that it just is always going to be fast? It's like, yeah, it's just like every few months you gotta like reset it.你知道这事儿有点荒谬吗,我们对那些手表能接受一定程度的、你懂的,缺陷。比如,我有一只Rolex,我朋友Lorenzo送给我的,我带它去表店,说这表总是快。我说,过了几个月,它会快了大概5分钟。他们说,对,他们说,是,真的,它就是这样。我说,等一下,我说,你告诉我它就是总会快?他们说,对,就是每隔几个月你得重新调一下。

2:06:17

Elon MuskSeems like they should recalibrate that thing.感觉他们应该重新校准一下那玩意儿。

2:06:18

Joe RoganThey can't, they tried. They say every few months, whether it's four months or five months or six months, it's gonna be a couple of minutes fast.他们做不到,他们试过了。他们说每隔几个月,不管是四个月、五个月还是六个月,就会快个几分钟。

2:06:26

Elon MuskOkay, it seems like they should really recalibrate that, because if it's always fast you can just, you know, delete those minutes.好吧,感觉他们真的应该重新校准一下,因为如果它总是快的,你只需要把那几分钟减掉就好了。

2:06:32

Joe RoganYou need to fucking kick down the door at Rolex and go, you fuckers are lazy.你需要他妈的踹开Rolex的门进去跟他们说,你们这帮家伙真他妈懒。

2:06:39

Elon MuskIt's kind of amazing that you can keep time mechanically on a wristwatch with these tiny little gears. It's amazing. I mean, the whole luxury watch market is fascinating. I'm not that involved in terms, like, I don't buy them, I bought them as gifts, I don't buy them for myself. But when I look at them online, like there's million dollar watches out there now that have, like, little rotating moons and stars, and they live like, look at this thing. How much is that one, Jamie?说起来,能用腕表里这些微小的齿轮纯机械地计时,这件事本身就很了不起。太神奇了。我的意思是,整个豪华腕表市场真的很迷人。我不是很深入这个圈子——我不买表,我买过作为礼物,但不为自己买。但我在网上看的时候,现在已经有百万美元级别的手表了,里面有旋转的月亮和星星,它们就像,你看,这是哪块,Jamie?

2:07:08

Joe RoganThese are fucking preposterous.这些他妈的太荒唐了。

2:07:11

Elon MuskI like gears, I love them. Yeah, I think they're beautiful.我喜欢齿轮,我超爱它们。是的,我觉得它们很美。

2:07:13

Joe RoganBut there's some of these people that are just taking it right in the ass. They're buying these watches for like 750,000. I'm like, yo, that's a Timex, son. Nobody knows it's not any better than some Casio that you could just buy online. Like, look at that, though.但有些人被坑得够惨的。他们花75万买这些表。我心想,老兄,这就是个Timex吧。没人知道它比你能在网上买到的某款Casio好在哪里。不过,你看,那个还是挺好看的。

2:07:28

Elon MuskWell, here's the thing, if you're a person that doesn't just want to know the time, you want craftsmanship, you want some artisan's touch, you want innovation in terms of, like, a person figuring out how gears and cogs all line up perfectly, to every time it turns over it's basically a second. I mean, that's just, there's art to that.好吧,事情是这样的,如果你不只是想知道时间,你追求的是工艺,是工匠的痕迹,你追求的是创新——就是有人想明白了所有齿轮和卡口如何完美契合,每转一圈基本上就是一秒钟。我的意思是,这里面有艺术。

2:07:56

Joe RoganYeah, it's not just telling time. I like this watch a lot, but if it got hit by a rock I wouldn't be sad. Yeah, it's just a watch, it's a mass-produced thing that runs on some quartz battery. But those things, there's art to that.是的,不只是报时而已。我很喜欢这只表,但如果被石头砸了我也不会难过。是的,它只是块表,是量产的石英电池表。但那些表,里面有艺术。

2:08:10

Elon MuskNo, I agree, it's beautiful. Yeah, I love it. There's something amazing about it, because it represents human creativity. It's not just electronic innovation, there's a person's work in that.不,我同意,它很美。是的,我喜欢它。有些东西很了不起,因为它代表了人类的创造力。这不只是电子创新,里面有一个人的心血。

2:08:27

Joe RoganYes, but you don't have a watch on.是的,但你没戴表啊。

2:08:31

Elon MuskNo, ever. I used to have a watch.没有,从来不戴。我以前戴过表。

2:08:32

Joe RoganWhat happened?后来怎么了?

2:08:37

Elon MuskMy phone tells the time.手机会告诉我时间。

2:08:39

Joe RoganSo good point. What if you lose your phone? Do you, wait, hold on, true, let me guess, you are a no-case guy.说得好。如果你手机丢了呢?等等,让我猜,你是那种不用手机壳的人。

2:08:47

Elon MuskThat's correct.没错。

2:08:49

Joe RoganLiving on the edge, walking on the edge without a case. Tyson, Neil deGrasse Tyson, was in here last week. I marveled at his ability to get through life without a case.活得真够边缘的,不用壳在边缘行走。Neil deGrasse Tyson上周来这里。我对他能在没有手机壳的情况下过日子这件事感到叹服。

2:08:59

Elon MuskThat's right.是的,没错。

2:09:00

Joe RoganYou know, he takes his phone and he flips it in between his fingers, like a soldier would do with his rifle. Right, he just rolls that shit in between his fingers.你知道,他拿着手机,在手指间转来转去,就像士兵摆弄步枪一样。对,他就那样把手机在手指间转来转去。

2:09:09

Elon MuskMarvelous.了不起。

2:09:11

Joe RoganWow, he says that's the reason why they do it. He said, will you look at someone who has a rifle? Why would they do that? Why would they flip it around like that? Right, so that when it goes to drop they have it in their hand, they catch it quickly. So that's what he does with his phone, he's just flipping his phone around all the time.哇,他说这就是他们这么做的原因。他说,你看持枪的士兵,为什么要这么做?为什么要这样转来转去?对,这样当枪要掉落时,手已经在那里了,能迅速接住。所以他就这么对待自己的手机,一直在手里转来转去。

2:09:29

Elon MuskI got that in Mexico. I was hoping it holds joints. Does it do anything? It seems to open.我在Mexico买了这个。我本来希望它能放关节烟。这能干嘛?好像能打开。

2:09:34

Joe RoganOh, it's just a hole, just a hole.哦,就是个洞,只是个洞。

2:09:36

Elon MuskGood storage in there, but, like, try to put a joint in there, close it. You put like one blunt, one. But it seems pretentious.里面储物空间不错,但是,你试着把烟放进去,然合上。你就能放一根,就一根。但感觉有点装。

2:09:50

Joe RoganYou know, that's the idea behind it. I bought it when I was in Mexico because I figured it would be a good size to hold joints.这就是这东西的用意。我是在墨西哥买的,我觉得这个大小正好用来放烟。

2:10:03

Elon MuskSo is that a joint or is it a cigar?这是烟卷还是雪茄?

2:10:06

Joe RoganNo, it's marijuana inside of tobacco. So it's like a posh plot tobacco. You never had that?不,这是大麻裹在烟草里。就是那种高档的烟草卷。你没抽过这个?

2:10:15

Elon MuskYeah, I think I tried one once.有,我想我试过一次。

2:10:17

Joe RoganCome on, man. You probably can't because stockholders, right? I mean, it's legal, right?来嘛,老兄。你可能不敢,因为股东们吧?不过这是合法的,对吧?

2:10:23

Elon MuskIt's totally legal.完全合法。

2:10:26

Joe RoganHow does that work? Do people get upset at you if you do certain things? There's tobacco and marijuana in there, that's all it is. The combination of tobacco and marijuana is wonderful. First turned on to it by Charlie Murphy and then reignited by Dave Chappelle.这是怎么回事?要是你做某些事,大家会对你不满吗?里面就是烟草和大麻,仅此而已。烟草和大麻的组合妙极了。最早是 Charlie Murphy 带我发现这个的,后来 Dave Chappelle 又让我重新爱上了它。

2:10:45

Elon MuskThere you go.就是这样。

2:10:47

Joe RoganPlus whiskey, balances it out.再配上威士忌,完美均衡。

2:10:50

Elon MuskAlcohol is a drug, it's been grandfathered in.酒精也是一种药,只不过是历史遗留下来的老资格。

2:10:56

Joe RoganWell, it's not just a drug, it's a drug that gets a bad rap, because you just have a little, it's great. Yeah, a little sip here and there and your inhibitions are relaxed, and it shows your true self, and hopefully you're more joyous and friendly and happy, and everything's good. The real worry is the people that can't handle it. Like the real worry about people who can't handle cars that can go zero to 60 in 1.9 seconds, or anything. Have you ever considered something that, like, imagine if one day everyone has a car that's on the same, at least, technological standard as one of your cars, and everyone agrees that the smart thing to do is not just to have bumpers but to perhaps have some sort of a magnetic repellent device, something, some electromagnetic field around the cars, that as cars come close to each other they automatically radically decelerate because of magnets or something.它不只是一种药,还是一种被误解的药,因为你只要喝一点点,感觉就很好。喝一小口,你的束缚就松开了,展现出真实的自我,希望你变得更快乐、更友善、更开心,一切都很好。真正让人担心的是那些把持不住的人。就像真正让人担心的,是那些开不了零百加速 1.9 秒的车的人,或者任何东西。你有没有想过,想象有一天,每个人都拥有至少和你的车同等技术水准的汽车,然后大家都同意,聪明的做法不只是装保险杠,而是装某种磁性排斥装置,某种电磁场围绕汽车,当车辆相互靠近时会因为磁力之类的自动急剧减速。

2:11:56

Elon MuskWell, I mean, our cars brake automatically.呃,我们的车是会自动刹车的。

2:11:58

Joe RoganBrake, yeah, when they see things. Yes, but like a physical barrier.刹车,对,当它们探测到东西的时候。是的,但我说的是物理屏障。

2:12:05

Elon MuskWell, the wheels work pretty well.轮子效果挺好的。

2:12:07

Joe RoganThe wheels do, yeah.轮子确实行,没错。

2:12:08

Elon MuskThey work pretty well, decelerate, that's, you know, 1.1 to 1.2 g's, that kind of thing.效果挺好的,制动力嘛,大概是 1.1 到 1.2 g 那种量级。

2:12:15

Joe RoganIs there a concern that one day all your cars will be on the road and then there'll still be regular people with regular cars, 20, 30 years from now, that'll get in the mix and be the main problem?你有没有担心过,将来你的车都上路了,但 20、30 年后仍然会有普通人开着普通车混在里面,成为主要的麻烦来源?

2:12:31

Elon MuskYeah, I think it'd be sort of like it was a time of transition where there were horses and gasoline cars on the road at the same time.嗯,我想那会是一个过渡期,就像当年马匹和汽油车同时在路上跑的时候一样。

2:12:37

Joe RoganIt's been pretty weird. Oh, that'd be the weirdest.那肯定特别奇怪。哦,那才是最奇葩的。

2:12:39

Elon MuskYeah, I mean, horses were tricky, you know. Back in, Manhattan had like 300,000 horses. You figure, like, a horse lives 15 years, you've got 20,000 horses dropping dead every year, I should say. Every year 20,000 horses, if there's 300,000 horses and a 15-year lifespan.是啊,我是说,马匹可不好弄,你知道。以前曼哈顿有大约 30 万匹马。你想想,马的寿命是 15 年,每年就有 2 万匹马死掉,我是说。如果有 30 万匹马,寿命 15 年,每年就是 2 万匹。

2:13:03

Joe RoganBack in the Gangs of New York days, that movie.就是《纽约黑帮》那个年代,那部电影。

2:13:06

Elon MuskYeah, it's a lot of dead horses, and you need a horse to move the horse.是啊,死马一堆,而且你还得用马来搬死马。

2:13:10

Joe RoganRight, and they'll probably get pretty freaked out if they have to move a dead horse. Do you think they know what's going on?对,搬死马的马大概也会很崩溃吧。你觉得它们知道发生了什么吗?

2:13:16

Elon MuskYeah, I mean, it's going to be pretty weird.嗯,会挺诡异的。

2:13:17

Joe RoganNo, I would imagine. Am I dragging this dead horse around, and I'm a horse.我不敢想象。我在拖这匹死马,而我自己也是一匹马。

2:13:26

Joe RoganDo you ever stop and think about your role in civilization? Do you ever stop and think about your role in the culture? Because me as a person who never met you until today, when I think of you, you know, I've always thought of you as being this weirdo super inventor dude who just somehow or another keeps coming up with new shit. But there's not a lot of you out there, like everybody else seems to be, I mean obviously you make a lot of money, and there's a lot of people that make a lot of money.你有没有停下来想过自己在文明中的角色?有没有停下来思考过自己在文化中的位置?因为我作为一个今天才第一次见到你的人,当我想到你的时候,我一直觉得你是那种怪才超级发明家,不知为何就是一直能搞出新东西。但这样的人不多,其他人好像都……我是说,你赚了很多钱,很多人都赚了很多钱。

2:13:52

Elon MuskYou like that clock?你喜欢那个钟?

2:13:54

Joe RoganYeah, pretty dope, right? This is a great clock.对,挺酷的,对吧?这个钟真棒。

2:13:57

Elon MuskYou want one? I'll get you one.你想要一个?我给你弄一个。

2:13:59

Joe RoganSure. Okay, done. I like weird things like this. Oh, this is the coolest. It's TGT promotion.好啊。行,成交。我就喜欢这种奇怪的东西。哦,这个太酷了。这是 TGT 的宣传品。

2:14:03

Elon MuskWhat is this, TGT Studios?这是什么,TGT Studios?

2:14:06

Joe RoganTGT Studios, yeah. It's a gentleman who makes all this by hand.TGT Studios,对。是一位绅士全部手工制作的。

2:14:13

Elon MuskYeah, it's really cool. My study is filled with weird devices.对,真的很酷。我书房里摆满了各种奇奇怪怪的装置。

2:14:17

Joe RoganWell, get ready for another one. All right, I'm sending it your way. You want a werewolf too? I'll hook you up.那又要多一件了。好,我给你送过去。你也想要一只狼人?一并给你搞定。

2:14:24

Elon MuskAll right, I'll take one.行,来一个。

2:14:26

Joe RoganOne werewolf and one clock coming up. Do you think about your role in the culture? Because me as a person who never met you until today, I've always looked at you and like, wow, like how's this guy just keep inventing shit? Like how do you keep coming up with all these new devices? And do you ever consider how unusual you, like, I had a dream once that there was a million Teslas instead of, like, one Tesla, there was a million Teslas. Okay, not Tesla the car, but Nikola.一只狼人加一个钟,安排上了。你有没有想过自己在文化中的角色?因为我作为今天才第一次见到你的人,我一直看着你想,哇,这家伙怎么一直在发明新东西?你是怎么一直想出这些新玩意儿的?你有没有想过自己有多不寻常?我曾经做过一个梦,梦里不是有一辆 Tesla,而是有一百万个 Tesla——不是 Tesla 那辆车,是 Nikola Tesla。

2:14:55

Elon MuskOh yeah, sure.哦,对,当然。

2:14:58

Joe RoganAnd that in his day there was a million people like him who were radically innovative. It was a weird dream, man, it was so strange, and I've had it more than once.在他那个年代,有一百万个像他一样的人,全都是革命性的创新者。这是个奇怪的梦,真的很怪,而且我做了不止一次。

2:15:07

Elon MuskResult in very rapid technology innovation, that's for sure.那结果一定是技术创新极速爆发,这是肯定的。

2:15:10

Joe RoganIt's one of the only dreams in my life I've had more than one time. Like where I've woken up and it's in the same dream, I'm in the same dream, and in this dream it's 1940s, 1950s, but everyone is severely advanced. There's flying blimps with like LCD screens on the side of them, and everything's bizarre and strange. And it stuck with me. Obviously this is just a stupid dream, but for whatever reason all these years that stuck with me. Like it takes one man, like Nikola Tesla, to have more than a hundred inventions that were patents, right? I mean, he had some pretty great, pretty fucking amazing ideas.这是我这辈子极少数做过不止一次的梦之一。我醒来后还在同一个梦里,在这个梦里是 1940 年代、1950 年代,但所有人都超级超前。天上飞着侧面装有 LCD 屏幕的飞艇,一切都奇异怪诞。这个梦一直留在我心里。当然这只是个蠢梦,但不知为何这么多年一直留着。就像 Nikola Tesla 一个人,就有超过一百件专利发明,对吧?我是说,他有些真的很了不起、他妈的令人叹为观止的想法。

2:15:54

Elon MuskYes.是的。

2:15:55

Joe RoganBut there was, in his day there was very few people like him.但在他那个时代,像他这样的人极少。

2:15:59

Elon MuskThat was true.确实如此。

2:16:00

Joe RoganWhat if there was a million like, what, and then advanced very quickly, right? But there's not a million Elon Musks, there's one, fucker. Do you think about that? Please try to not.如果有一百万个这样的人,那会怎样——那进化就会非常之快,对吧?但现在没有一百万个 Elon Musk,就你一个,老兄。你有没有想过这件事?请尽量别去想。

2:16:24

Elon MuskI don't think you'd necessarily want to be me.我觉得你不一定会想成为我。

2:16:29

Joe RoganWell, what's the worst part about you? People would like it that much.那成为你最糟糕的地方是什么?人们会这么喜欢吗?

2:16:32

Elon MuskWell, most people wouldn't.大多数人不会的。

2:16:34

Joe RoganBut they can't be you, so that's like some superhero type shit. You know, you wouldn't want to be Spider-Man, rather just sleep tight in Gotham City. I hope he's out there doing his job.但他们又没办法成为你,所以这就像超级英雄那回事。你知道,你不一定想当 Spider-Man,宁可在哥谭市睡大觉,只希望他在外面守护着就好。

2:16:48

Elon MuskIt's very hard to turn it off.这东西真的很难关掉。

2:16:51

Joe RoganWhat's the hardest part? It might sound great if it's turned on, but what if it doesn't turn off? Now I showed you the isolation tank, and you've never experienced that before. Yeah, I think that could help you turn it off a little bit, just for the night, just give you a little bit of sleep, a little bit of perspective. Magnesium that you get from the water as well, that makes you sleep easier, because the water has Epsom salts in it. But maybe some sort of strategy for, uh, sacrificing your biology, or not sacrificing but enhancing your biological recovery time, by figuring out a way, whether it's through meditation or some other ways to shut off that thing at night. Like, you must have, like, a constant stream of ideas that's running through your head all the time. You getting text messages from chicks?最难的地方是什么?开着可能听起来很棒,但如果关不掉呢?现在我给你看了隔离舱,你从来没体验过。对,我觉得那能帮你稍微关掉一会儿,就一晚上,给你一点睡眠,一点视角。水里的镁——因为水里有 Epsom 盐——也能让你睡得更好。也许可以通过某种策略,不是牺牲而是强化你的生物恢复能力,不管是冥想还是其他方式,在晚上关掉那个东西。你脑子里一定一直有源源不断的想法在跑。你在收女生发来的短信吗?

2:17:42

Elon MuskNo. I'm getting text messages from friends saying, what the hell are you doing smoking weed?没有。我收到的是朋友们的短信,说,你他妈的在干嘛,在抽大麻?

2:17:53

Joe RoganIs that bad for you? It's legal.这对你有影响吗?这是合法的啊。

2:17:56

Elon MuskYeah, it's kind of unapproved. It's not, you know, I'm not a regular smoker of weed.嗯,算是有点不太被认可。我平时不是大麻的常规用户。

2:18:02

Joe RoganHow often you smoke it?你多久抽一次?

2:18:04

Elon MuskAlmost never. I mean, it's, I don't actually notice any effect.几乎从不。而且说实话,我感觉不到什么效果。

2:18:12

Joe RoganWell, there you go. There was a time where, I think it was Ram Dass or someone gave some Buddhist monk a bunch of acid. Okay, and he ate it and it had no effect on him.好吧,就这样了。我记得有一次,好像是 Ram Dass 还是谁,给了一个佛教僧侣一大堆迷幻药。然后他吃了,完全没反应。

2:18:23

Elon MuskI doubt that.我不相信。

2:18:24

Joe RoganI would say that too, but I've never meditated to the level that some of these people have, where they're constantly meditating all day, they don't have any material possessions, and all of their energy is spent trying to achieve a certain mindset.我也这么觉得,但我从来没冥想到这些人那种程度——他们整天不停地冥想,没有任何物质财产,把所有精力都用在追求某种心境状态上。

2:18:38

Elon MuskI would like to cynically deny that. I'd like to cynically say they just fucking think the same way I do, they just hang out with flip-flops on and make weird noises. But maybe no, you know, I know a lot of people like weed, and that's fine, but I don't find that it is very good for productivity.我很想愤世嫉俗地否定这件事。我很想愤世嫉俗地说他们他妈的想法跟我一样,只是穿着人字拖晃来晃去、发出奇怪的声音罢了。但也许不是,你知道,我知道很多人喜欢大麻,这没问题,但我发现它对提高效率没什么帮助。

2:19:01

Joe RoganFor you, not for me. Yeah, I mean, I would imagine that for someone like you, it's not someone like you, it would be more like a cup of coffee, right? You want, you have a mate.对你来说,不是对我。是啊,我是说,我觉得对你这样的人来说,更像是一杯咖啡,对吧?你要的,你有茶喝。

2:19:13

Elon MuskYeah, it's more like the opposite of a cup of coffee. Like a cup of coffee in reverse, oh, weed is.嗯,更像是咖啡的反面。大麻就像反向咖啡。

2:19:18

Joe RoganYeah, no, I'm saying you would like more, more like what would be beneficial to you would be like coffee.哦对,我的意思是说,对你有益的更像是咖啡那种东西。

2:19:24

Elon MuskI like to get things done, I like to be useful. That is one of the hardest things to do, is to be useful.我喜欢把事情搞定,我喜欢有用。做一个有用的人,这是最难的事情之一。

2:19:32

Joe RoganWhen you say you like to get things done, like in terms of, like, what? Satisfaction when you complete a project, when something that you invent comes to fruition and you see people enjoying it, that feeling?你说喜欢把事情搞定,具体是哪方面的感觉?完成一个项目时的满足感?你发明的东西实现了、看到大家在享用它时的那种感觉?

2:19:43

Elon MuskYes, doing something useful for other people, that I like doing.对,为他人做些有用的事,这是我喜欢做的。

2:19:49

Joe RoganThat's interesting, for other people.很有意思,是为他人。

2:19:55

Elon MuskYes.是的。

2:19:55

Joe RoganSo do you think that that is maybe the way you recognize that you have this unusual position in the culture, where you can uniquely influence certain things because of this, I mean, you essentially have a gift, right? I mean, you would think it was a curse, but I'm sure it's been fueled by many, many years of discipline and learning. But you essentially have a gift, in that you have this radical sort of creativity engine when it comes to innovation and technology. It's like you're just going at a very high RPMs all the time. What is that? Doesn't stop?那你是否认为,这也许是你意识到自己在文化中这种不寻常位置的方式——因为这份能力,你可以独特地影响某些事情。我是说,你本质上拥有一种天赋,对吧?你可能会觉得它是诅咒,但我相信它也被多年的纪律和学习所滋养。你本质上有一种天赋,就是这种在创新和技术方面极度激进的创造力引擎。就好像你一直在以非常高的转速运转。那是什么感觉?停不下来?

2:20:39

Elon MuskI don't know what would happen if I got into a sensory deprivation tank.我不知道进了感官剥夺舱之后会发生什么。

2:20:42

Joe RoganLet's try it.咱们试试。

2:20:43

Elon MuskSounds were concerning. It's like running the engine with no resistance.听起来有点让人担心。就像让引擎在没有阻力的情况下空转。

2:20:50

Joe RoganThat's just, is that what it is, though? Maybe it's not, maybe it's fine.就这样,不过真的是这样吗?也许不是,也许没问题。

2:20:54

Elon MuskI don't know, I'll try it, I'll try it.我不知道,我去试试,我去试试。

2:20:57

Joe RoganHave you ever experienced, experimented with meditation or anything?你有没有尝试过冥想或者类似的东西?

2:21:02

Elon MuskYes.试过。

2:21:03

Joe RoganWhat do you do, or what have you done rather?你怎么做的,或者说你做过什么?

2:21:08

Elon MuskI mean, just sort of sit there and be quiet and then repeat some mantra, which acts as a focal point.就是那种,坐在那里保持安静,然后重复某个咒语,作为专注的焦点。

2:21:18

Joe RoganIt's distill the mind.能净化心灵。

2:21:20

Elon MuskIt distill the mind, but I don't find myself drawn to it frequently.是能净化心灵,但我发现自己不太经常有冲动去做这件事。

2:21:28

Joe RoganDo you think that perhaps productivity is maybe more attractive to you than enlightenment, and, like, or even the concept of whatever enlightenment means? Like, what are you trying to achieve when you're meditating all the time? With you it seems like, almost like there's a franticness to your creativity that comes out of this burning furnace. And for, in order for you to, like, calm that thing down, get through, you might have to throw too much water on it.你觉得也许生产力对你的吸引力,比所谓的开悟要大得多?就连开悟这个概念对你来说意义又是什么?就像,你一直冥想到底是为了什么?对你来说,感觉你的创造力几乎带着一种焦灼,那是从一个燃烧的熔炉里喷发出来的。而如果你要平息它,透过它、穿越它,也许就得往里面泼太多水。

2:21:59

Elon MuskIt's like a never-ending explosion.就像一场永无止境的爆炸。

2:22:02

Joe RoganLike, what is it like? I try to explain it to a dumb person like me, what's going on? Never-ending explosion.那是什么感觉?尽量向我这种蠢人解释一下,里面在发生什么?永无止境的爆炸。

2:22:12

Elon MuskIt's just constant ideas just bouncing around.就是各种想法不断弹来弹去。

2:22:14

Joe RoganYes. Damn. Yeah, so when everybody leaves it's just Elon sitting at home brushing his teeth, just bunch of ideas bouncing around your head, yeah, all the time. When did you realize that that's not the case with most people?对。天哪。是啊,所以等所有人走了,就剩 Elon 一个人在家刷牙,脑子里就一堆想法一直蹦,对,一直这样。你什么时候意识到大多数人不是这样的?

2:22:38

Elon MuskI think when I was, I don't know, five or six or something, I thought I was insane.我想大概是五六岁的时候,我以为自己疯了。

2:22:44

Joe RoganWhy did you think you were insane?你为什么觉得自己疯了?

2:22:45

Elon MuskBecause it was clear that other people did not, their mind wasn't exploding with ideas all the time.因为很明显,其他人的脑子里不是一直在爆炸想法。

2:22:52

Joe RoganThey weren't expressing it, they weren't talking about it at all, and you realized by the time you were five or six, like, oh, they're probably not even getting this thing that I'm getting.他们没有表达出来,完全没有提,而你在五六岁就意识到,哦,他们可能根本没有我那种体验。

2:23:02

Elon MuskNo, it was just strange. It was like, hmm, I'm strange. That was my conclusion, I'm strange.对,就是感觉很奇怪。就像,嗯,我很奇怪。这就是我的结论:我很奇怪。

2:23:12

Joe RoganBut did you feel diminished by it in any way, like knowing that this is a weird thing that you really probably couldn't commiserate with with other people, they wouldn't understand?但这件事有没有让你有点自我否定?知道这是一件奇怪的事,而且大概没法跟别人产生共鸣,他们不会理解?

2:23:24

Elon MuskI hope they wouldn't find out, because they might, like, put me away with something.我希望他们不要发现,因为他们可能会把我关起来什么的。

2:23:27

Joe RoganYou thought that for a second?你有过这样的想法?

2:23:28

Elon MuskYes, when you were little. Yeah, I knew they put people away. What if they put me away?有,那是小时候。是的,我知道人们会把人关起来。万一他们把我也关起来怎么办?

2:23:33

Joe RoganLike when you were little you thought this? Yes, wow. Like you thought this is so radically different than the people that are around me, if they find out.你小时候就有这种想法?是的,哇。就像你觉得这跟我身边的人差得太远了,如果他们发现的话……

2:23:41

Elon MuskI got the stream coming in.想法一直往脑子里涌。

2:23:44

Joe RoganYeah, wow.哇。

2:23:48

Elon MuskBut you know, I was only like five or six, so like.不过那时候我才五六岁,所以……

2:23:51

Joe RoganDo you think this is like, I mean, there's outliers biologically, you mean? There's people that are seven foot nine, there's people who have giant hands, there's people that have eyes that are 20/15 vision, there's always outliers. Do you feel like you, like, caught this, like you've got some, you're like on some weird innovation creativity sort of wave that's very unusual? Like you tapped into, I mean, just think of the various things you've been able to accomplish in a very short amount of time, and you're constantly doing this. That's a weird, you're a weird person, right? I agree.你觉得这是一种生物学上的异常值吗?就是说,异常值确实存在:有人身高 7 英尺 9 英寸,有人有一双巨手,有人视力达到 20/15,异常值总是存在的。你感觉自己是不是捕捉到了什么,像是踏上了一种非常罕见的创新创造力波段?就像你接入了某种东西——想想你在如此短的时间内做到的各种事情,而且你一直在持续这样做。你是个怪人,对吧?我同意。

2:24:35

Elon MuskYeah.嗯。

2:24:36

Joe RoganLike what if there's a million Elon Musks?如果有一百万个 Elon Musk 会怎样?

2:24:42

Elon MuskWell, that would be very, very weird.那会非常非常奇怪。

2:24:48

Joe RoganYeah, it'd be pretty weird.是的,会挺奇怪的。

2:24:50

Elon MuskReal weird, definitely.真的很奇怪,绝对的。

2:24:55

Joe RoganYeah, what if there are a million Joe Rogans?那如果有一百万个 Joe Rogan 呢?

2:24:56

Elon MuskOh, there probably is, probably two million.哦,大概确实有,说不定有两百万。

2:25:05

Elon MuskI mean, I think that's the case with a lot of folks. I mean, but like, you know, my goal is, like, try to do useful things, try to maximize the probability the future is good, make the future exciting, something you look forward to. You know, with Tesla we're, like, trying to make things that people love. It's, like, not, I think, how many things can you buy that you really love, that really give you joy?我的意思是,我觉得很多人都是这样。但你知道,我的目标是,尽量做有用的事,尽量提高未来变好的概率,让未来令人兴奋,让你对它有所期待。比如在 Tesla,我们是想做出人们真心喜爱的东西。你想想,有多少东西是你能花钱买到、而你是真心喜爱的、真正给你带来快乐的?

2:25:41

Joe RoganSo rare, so rare. I wish there were more things.太稀少了,太稀少了。我希望有更多这样的东西。

2:25:44

Elon MuskThat's what we try to do, just make things that somebody loves.这就是我们努力的方向,做出让某人真正爱上的东西。

2:25:48

Joe RoganWhen you think about making things that someone loves, like, do you specifically think about, like, what things would improve people's experience? Like what would change the way people interface with life that would make them more relaxed or more happy? You really think, like, when you're thinking about things like that, is that, like, one of your considerations, like what could I do that would help people that maybe they wouldn't be able to figure out?当你想着做出让人喜爱的东西时,你是否会具体想到,什么东西能改善人们的体验?什么东西能改变人们与生活互动的方式,让他们更放松或更快乐?你在思考这类事情的时候,这是你的考量之一吗——我能做什么来帮助那些也许自己想不出来的人?

2:26:17

Elon MuskYeah, like, what are the set of things that can be done to make the future better? Like, you know, so I think that a future where we are a space-faring civilization and out there among the stars, this is very exciting, this makes me look forward to the future, this makes me want that future. You know, the things, they need to be things that make you look forward to waking up in the morning. You wake up in the morning, look forward to the day, look forward to the future. In a future where we are a space-faring civilization and out there among the stars, I think that's very exciting, that is a thing we want. Whereas if you knew we would not be a space-faring civilization but forever confined to Earth, this would not be a good future, that would be very sad.是的,就是说,有哪些事情能让未来变得更好?比如,我认为一个我们成为星际文明、驰骋星辰大海的未来,这非常令人兴奋,这让我对未来充满期待,让我渴望那个未来。这些东西,得是让你早上起床时充满期待的东西。早上醒来,对这一天充满期待,对未来充满期待。在一个我们成为星际文明、出没于群星之间的未来里,我认为这非常令人兴奋,这是我们想要的。反之,如果你知道我们永远不会成为星际文明,永远被困在地球上,那不是一个好的未来,那会非常悲哀。

2:27:08

Joe RoganI think it would be so sad, future of the, just the finite lifespan of the Earth itself and the solar system itself. That even though it's possibly, you know, I mean, how long do they feel like this sun and the solar system is going to exist, how many hundreds of millions of years?我觉得会极度悲哀,仅仅是地球本身和太阳系本身的有限寿命这一点就够了。即便可能……我是说,他们认为太阳和太阳系还能存在多少亿年?

2:27:27

Elon MuskWell, it's probably, if you're saying when does the sun boil the oceans, right, about 500 million years.嗯,你说的是太阳把海洋煮沸的时候,对吧,大概是 5 亿年后。

2:27:35

Joe RoganSo is it sad that we never leave, because in 500 million years that happens? Is that what you're saying?那如果我们从没离开过地球,5 亿年后这件事发生,你说的就是这个意义上的悲哀?

2:27:45

Elon MuskNo, I just think, like, if there are two futures, and one future we're out there among the stars, and the things we read about and see in science fiction movies, the good ones, are true. We have these starships and we're going to see what other planets are like, and we're a multi-planet species, and the scope and scale of consciousness is expanded across many civilizations and many planets and many star systems. This is a great future, this is a wonderful thing to me, and that's what we should strive for.不,我只是觉得,如果有两个未来,一个未来里我们驰骋于星辰之间,那些科幻电影里读到的、看到的美好场景都成真了——我们有星际飞船,去探索其他星球是什么样子,我们是多行星物种,意识的范围和规模跨越了许多文明、许多星球、许多星系——这是一个伟大的未来,对我来说这是一件美妙的事,这才是我们应该追求的。

2:28:23

Joe RoganHmm, but that's biological travel, that's cells traveling physically to another location. Yes. Do you think that's definitely where we're going?嗯,但那是生物旅行,是细胞在物理上移动到另一个地点。是的。你觉得我们肯定会走那条路吗?

2:28:36

Elon MuskNo.不。

2:28:37

Joe RoganYeah, I don't think so either.是啊,我也不这么认为。

2:28:38

Elon MuskI used to think so, and now I'm thinking more likely less than ever, like almost every day less likely. We can definitely go to the moon and Mars, everything, we will go to the asteroid belt, and we can go to the moons of Jupiter, Saturn, you can even get to Pluto.我以前认为是,但现在我越来越觉得可能性越来越低,几乎每天都在降低。我们肯定可以去月球和火星,没问题,我们会去小行星带,可以去木星和土星的卫星,甚至可以去冥王星。

2:28:57

Joe RoganThat'd be the craziest place ever, if we colonized Mars and re-terraformed it and turned it into, like, a big Jamaica. I think turn the whole thing into Cancun.那会是史上最疯狂的地方,如果我们殖民了火星并把它地球化,把它改造成一个大型牙买加。我觉得把整个火星变成坎昆。

2:29:15

Elon MuskWell, I mean, over time it wouldn't be easy, but yes, you could just, you could warm it up, you could add air, you get some water there. I mean, over time, hundreds of millions of years, or whatever it takes, it could be a multi-planet species.嗯,我是说,时间久了倒不是不可能,但不容易,你可以给它加热,可以往里加空气,弄点水过去。我是说,经过数亿年,或者不管需要多久,可以成为多行星物种。

2:29:28

Joe RoganThat would be amazing, the multi-planet species, that's what's ultimately, like, air conditioning Saturn. I'm pro-human.那会太惊人了,多行星物种,这才是终极目标——给土星装空调。我是人类的支持者。

2:29:34

Elon MuskMe too, yeah, I love humanity, I think it's great.我也是,对,我热爱人类,我觉得人类很伟大。

2:29:39

Joe RoganWe're glad, as a robot, that you love humans, because we love you too, and we don't want you to kill us and eat us.很高兴,作为一个机器人,你热爱人类,因为我们也爱你,而且我们不想让你杀死并吃掉我们。

2:29:47

Elon MuskI mean, you know, strangely, I think a lot of people don't like humanity and see it as a blight, but I do not.我是说,说来奇怪,我觉得很多人其实不喜欢人类,认为人类是一种祸害,但我不这么看。

2:29:52

Joe RoganWell, I think part of that is just they've been, you know, they've been struggling. When people struggle they associate their struggle with other people, they never internalize their problems, they look to other people as holding them back, and people suck, and fuck people, and it's just, you know, it's an evil never-ending cycle. But not always, again, most people are really good, most people, vast majority. This may sound corny, but love is the answer.嗯,我觉得部分原因是他们一直在挣扎。当人们挣扎时,他们会把挣扎归因于他人,从不把问题内化,总觉得是别人在拖累自己——人都是垃圾,去他妈的,就是个邪恶的无尽循环。但也不总是这样,说真的,大多数人真的很好,绝大多数人。这可能听起来老套,但爱才是答案。

2:30:24

Elon MuskIt is the answer, yep, yeah, it is.爱就是答案,没错,是的。

2:30:29

Joe RoganIt sounds corny because we're all scared, you know, we're all scared of trying to love people, being rejected, or someone taking advantage of you because you're trying to be loving.听起来老套是因为我们都很害怕,害怕去爱别人,害怕被拒绝,或者因为你试图去爱而被人利用。

2:30:40

Elon MuskSure, but if we all could just relax and love each other.当然,但如果我们都能放轻松、相互去爱……

2:30:46

Joe RoganWouldn't hurt to have more love in the world.世界上多一点爱不会有什么坏处。

2:30:48

Elon MuskIt definitely wouldn't hurt.绝对不会有坏处。

2:30:50

Joe RoganYeah, it'd be great.对,那会很好。

2:30:51

Elon MuskYeah, we should do that.是,我们该这么做。

2:30:52

Joe RoganYeah, I agree, man. Really, how do you fix that? You have a love machine?是啊,老兄,我同意。真的,怎么做到?你有爱的机器?

2:30:59

Elon MuskNo, but, uh, probably spend more time with your friends and less time on social media.没有,但呢,大概多花时间跟朋友在一起,少花时间在社交媒体上。

2:31:04

Joe RoganNow, deleting social media from your applications, from your phones, that gives you, uh, 10% boost of happiness, was what do you think the percentages?现在,从手机上删除社交媒体应用,能给你带来大约 10% 的幸福感提升,你觉得这个比例怎么样?

2:31:18

Elon MuskI think probably something like that, yeah. Good, 10%. Yeah, I mean, the only thing I've kept is Twitter, because I kind of, like, need some means of getting a message out, you know.我觉得大概差不多,没错。好,10%。是啊,我唯一保留的是 Twitter,因为我某种程度上需要有个方式把消息传出去,你懂的。

2:31:30

Joe RoganRight.对。

2:31:33

Elon MuskThat's about it.就这样。

2:31:37

Joe RoganSo far so good. Well, what's interesting with you, you actually occasionally engage with people on Twitter.目前看来不错。有意思的是,你在 Twitter 上偶尔会真的跟人互动。

2:31:43

Elon MuskYeah, it's, what percentage of that is a good idea? Good question.嗯,这其中有多少比例是好主意?好问题。

2:31:52

Joe RoganRight.对。

2:32:00

Elon MuskIt's hard, it's mostly, I think it's unbalanced, more good than bad, but there's definitely some bad.挺难说的,大多数情况下,我觉得是利大于弊,但肯定也有弊的地方。

2:32:08

Joe RoganSo do you ever, hopefully the good outweighs the bad, do you ever think about how odd it is, the weird feeling that you get when someone says something shitty to you on Twitter and you read it, the weird feeling, this weird little negative jolt? It's like a subjective negative jolt of energy that you don't really need to absorb, but you do anyway, like, well, fuck this guy, fuck him.那你有没有,希望好的能超过坏的,你有没有想过这件事有多奇怪——当有人在 Twitter 上对你说了什么难听的话,你看到它时那种奇怪的感觉,那种奇怪的小小负能量冲击?就像一种主观上的负能量冲击,你其实不需要吸收,但你还是吸收了,就像,操这家伙,操他。

2:32:27

Elon MuskI mean, there's a lot of negativity on Twitter.我是说,Twitter 上有很多负能量。

2:32:31

Joe RoganIt is, but it's a weird, it's in its form, like the way, if you ingest it as if you're like, you try to be like a little scientist as you're ingesting it, you're like, well, how weird is this, that I'm even getting upset at some strange person saying something mean to me. It's not even accurate.确实,但在它的那种形式下,就像如果你用旁观者的心态去接收它,试着像个小科学家一样,你会想,这多奇怪啊,我居然会因为某个陌生人说了一句难听的话而感到不爽。而且那话甚至不准确。

2:32:48

Elon MuskI mean, there are a vast number of negative comments, so for the vast majority of, I just ignore them, the vast majority.我是说,负面评论数量巨大,所以绝大多数我直接忽略掉,绝大多数都是这样。

2:32:59

Joe RoganYeah, but every now and again you get drawn in. It's not good.是啊,但偶尔你还是会被拉进去。这不好。

2:33:02

Elon MuskIt's not good. Make mistakes.确实不好。会犯错误的。

2:33:05

Joe RoganYes, you can make mistakes, you can make some mistakes, we're all human, we can make mistakes.对,会犯一些错误,我们都是人,都会犯错。

2:33:09

Elon MuskYeah, it's hard.是的,难免的。

2:33:13

Joe RoganAnd people love it when you say something and you take it back. They're like, fuck you, we saved it forever, fuck, screenshot that shit, fuck you, you had that thought. You had that thought, like, well, I deleted it, not good enough, you had the thought. I'm better than you, I never had that thought, you had that thought, you piece of shit, look, I saved it, I put it on my blog.而且人们最爱看你发了什么然后收回去。他们就像,操你的,我们永远保存了,操,截图,操你,你当时就是这么想的。你有过这个想法,就算你删了也没用,你有过这个想法,我比你高尚,我从来没有过这个想法,你有过,你这混蛋,看,我存下来了,我放在我的博客上了。

2:33:34

Elon MuskYeah, I'm not sure why people think that, that anyone would think that deleting a tweet makes it go away. It's like, hello, been the internet for a while.是啊,我不明白为什么有人会认为,删掉一条推文就能让它消失。这就是说,互联网都用这么久了。

2:33:44

Joe RoganYeah, well, it's even like, the thing is they don't want you to be able to delete it. Because the problem is, if you don't delete it and you don't believe it anymore, it's really hard to say, hey, that thing above, I don't really believe that anymore, I changed the way I view things.是啊,就算这样,问题是他们根本不希望你能删。因为如果你不删,但你又不再这么相信了,那要说一声「上面那条,我其实已经不这么认为了,我改变了看法」真的很难。

2:34:00

Elon MuskYes.是的。

2:34:00

Joe RoganBecause people go, well, fuck you, all right, I have that over there, I'm gonna just take that, I'm not gonna pay attention to that shit you wrote. It's on your permanent record, it's forever, bro. We'll put this on your permanent record, yeah, it's like a tattoo, you keep it. Oh yeah, well, it's this thing where there's a lack of compassion, it's a lack of compassion issue. People just, like, intentionally shitty to each other all the time online, and trying to catch me.因为人们就会说,滚,好吧,我把那个存在这儿了,我不打算理会你现在写的那些。它在你的永久记录里,永远的,老兄。我们要把这个放进你的永久记录里,就像纹身,你得一直带着它。哦对,就是这种事情,背后是一种缺乏同理心,缺乏悲悯心的问题。人们就是老在网上互相故意使坏,试图抓住对方。

2:34:27

Elon MuskIt's, they're more trying to catch people doing something that's arrestable, like a cop trying to, like, get, you know, arrests on his record. It's like, they're trying to catch you with something.这,他们更像是在试图抓你做了什么可以被逮捕的事,就像一个警察在刷逮捕记录一样。就是他们在试图逮住你的什么把柄。

2:34:37

Joe RoganMore than they're logically looking at it, thinking it's a bad thing that you've done, or that it's an idea they don't agree with so much they need to insult you, trying to catch you.不是在理性地看待这件事,觉得你做了什么坏事,或者是一个他们不认同到要侮辱你的想法,而是在试图抓住你。

2:34:46

Elon MuskYeah, I mean, it's way easier to be mean on social media than it is to be mean in person.是啊,在社交媒体上坏话说人,比当面说容易多了。

2:34:53

Joe RoganYes, way easier.是的,容易太多了。

2:34:54

Elon MuskYeah, yes, it's weird.对,是的,挺奇怪的。

2:34:58

Joe RoganIt's not a normal way of human interacting, it's cheating. We're not supposed to be able to interact so easily, but people are not looking at, yes, you would never do that, you'd never be so mean to somebody looking in their eyes, and if you did you'd feel like shit, most people.这不是人类正常的交互方式,这是一种作弊。我们本来没法这么轻易地互动,但人们都不是面对面看着对方的——是的,你根本不会那样做,你不会盯着一个人的眼睛那么刻薄地对待他,如果你真的这样做了,大多数人都会感觉很糟糕。

2:35:11

Elon MuskYeah, unless you're a sociopath, you'd feel terrible.是啊,除非你是反社会人格,否则你会觉得很难受的。

2:35:15

Joe RoganYes. Elon Musk, this has been a pleasure.是的。Elon Musk,这次真的是一种享受。

2:35:19

Elon MuskYeah, likewise, it really has been, it's been an honor, thank you for having me.是的,我也是,真的,这是一种荣幸,感谢你邀请我。

2:35:23

Joe RoganThanks for doing this, because, uh, I know you don't do a lot of, uh, long-form stuff like this. I hope I didn't weird you out, and I hope you don't get mad that you smoke weed.谢谢你来参加,因为我知道你不常做这种长篇对话。我希望我没有让你感到不自在,也希望你不会因为抽了大麻而生气。

2:35:34

Elon MuskI mean, not bad, it's legal, we're in California, this is just as legal as this whiskey we've been drinking.没事,这是合法的,我们在 California,这和我们一直在喝的这杯威士忌一样合法。

2:35:41

Joe RoganExactly, this is all good, right? Cheers. Thank you. Um, is there any message you would like to put out, other than love is the answer, because I think you really nailed it with that?就是这样,都没问题对吧?干杯。谢谢。嗯,你还有什么想传达的信息吗?除了"爱是答案"之外——我觉得你那句话说得真的太到位了。

2:35:53

Elon MuskNo, I think, you know, I think people should be nicer to each other, and give people, give more credit to others, and don't assume that they're mean until you know they're actually mean. You know, just, it's easy to demonize people, you're usually wrong about it, people are nicer than you think. Give people more credit.不了,我觉得,你知道,我觉得人们应该对彼此更好一点,多给别人一点信任,不要在还没弄清楚之前就先入为主地觉得别人是坏人。你知道,就是,把人妖魔化很容易,但你通常都是错的,人们比你想象的要善良。多给人一点信任。

2:36:19

Joe RoganI couldn't agree more. And I want to thank you, not just for all the crazy innovations you've come up with and your constant flow of ideas, but that you choose to spread that idea, which is, it's very vulnerable but it's very honest, and it resonates with me, and I believe it, I believe it's true too. So thank you, and all you fucks out there, be nice, be nice, fuckers. All right, thank you, everybody, thank you very much. Thank you, good night, everybody.我完全同意。我想感谢你,不只是因为你提出的那些疯狂创新、你源源不断的想法,还因为你选择去传播那个理念——它非常脆弱,但也非常真诚,它和我产生了共鸣,我相信它,我也相信它是真的。所以谢谢你,还有你们这些家伙,善待彼此,善待彼此,混蛋们。好了,谢谢大家,非常感谢。谢谢,晚安,各位。