Chris AndersonElon, hey, welcome back to TED. It’s great to have you here.Elon，嘿，欢迎回到 TED。很高兴你能来。
Elon MuskThanks for having me.谢谢你们邀请我。
Chris AndersonIn the next half hour or so, we’re going to spend some time exploring your vision for what an exciting future might look like, which I guess makes the first question a little ironic: Why are you boring?接下来半小时左右，我们要花些时间探讨你对激动人心的未来是什么样子的构想，这让我觉得第一个问题有点讽刺意味：你为什么要做无聊的事？
Elon MuskI ask myself that frequently. We’re trying to dig a hole under LA, and this is to create the beginning of what will hopefully be a 3D network of tunnels to alleviate congestion. So right now, one of the most soul-destroying things is traffic. It affects people in every part of the world. It takes away so much of your life. It’s horrible. It’s particularly horrible in LA.我自己也经常这样问自己。我们正在 LA 地下挖隧道，这是为了创建一个隧道 3D 网络的雏形，希望借此缓解交通拥堵。现在，最摧毁人心的事情之一就是堵车。它影响着世界各地的人，偷走你太多的时间。太糟糕了。在 LA 尤其糟糕。
Chris AndersonI think you’ve brought with you the first visualization that’s been shown of this. Can I show this? (shows animation)我觉得你带来了这个项目有史以来第一次公开展示的可视化动画。我可以放出来吗？（播放动画）
Elon MuskAbsolutely. So, this is the first time. Just to show what we’re talking about. A couple of key things that are important in having a 3D tunnel network. First of all, you have to be able to integrate the entrance and exit of the tunnel seamlessly into the fabric of the city. By having an elevator – sort of a car skate, that’s on an elevator – you can integrate the entrance and exits to the tunnel network just by using two parking spaces. And then the car gets on a skate. There’s no speed limit here, so we’re designing this to be able to operate at 200 kilometers an hour.当然。这是第一次公开展示。让大家看看我们在做什么。要构建一个 3D 隧道网络，有几个关键点非常重要。首先，你必须能够将隧道的出入口无缝融入城市肌理。通过电梯——一种带电梯的汽车滑板车——你只需占用两个停车位，就能将隧道网络的进出口整合进来。然后车子上到滑板上。这里没有速度限制，所以我们设计的目标是能够以 200 kilometers per hour 的速度运行。
Chris AndersonHow much?多少？
Elon Musk200 kilometers an hour, or about 130 miles per hour. So you should be able to get from Westwood to LAX in six minutes – five, six minutes.200 kilometers per hour，大约 130 miles per hour。所以从 Westwood 到 LAX 应该只需要六分钟——五到六分钟。
Chris AndersonSo possibly, initially done, it’s on a sort of toll-road-type basis?那么，至少在最初阶段，这会是类似收费公路的模式？
Elon MuskYes.是的。
Chris AndersonWhich, I guess, alleviates some traffic from the surface streets as well.这也能缓解地面街道的交通压力，我猜？
Elon MuskI don’t know if people noticed it in the video, but there’s no real limit to how many levels of tunnel you can have. You can go much further deep than you can go up. The deepest mines are much deeper than the tallest buildings are tall, so you can alleviate any arbitrary level of urban congestion with a 3D tunnel network. This is a very important point.我不知道大家在视频里有没有注意到，隧道可以做的层数其实没有上限。你可以挖得比建筑物盖得还深得多。最深的矿井比最高的建筑物还要深，所以通过 3D 隧道网络可以缓解任意程度的城市拥堵。这是非常重要的一点。
Elon MuskA key rebuttal to the tunnels is that if you add one layer of tunnels, that will simply alleviate congestion, it will get used up, and then you’ll be back where you started, back with congestion. But you can go to any arbitrary number of tunnels, any number of levels.对隧道方案的一个关键质疑是：如果你只加一层隧道，它只会暂时缓解拥堵，很快就会饱和，然后你又回到了起点，还是堵。但你可以做到任意数量的隧道，任意多层。
Chris AndersonBut people say that – seen traditionally – it’s incredibly expensive to dig, and that would block this idea.但人们说——从传统角度看——挖掘工程极其昂贵，这会卡死这个想法。
Elon MuskYes, they’re right. To give you an example: the LA subway extension is, I think, a two-and-a-half-mile extension that was just completed for two billion dollars. So, it’s roughly a billion dollars a mile to do the subway extension in LA. And this is not the highest utility subway in the world. So yes, it’s quite difficult to dig tunnels normally. I think we need to have at least a tenfold improvement in the cost per mile of tunneling.是的，他们说得对。举个例子：LA 地铁延伸线，我记得是刚刚完工的 2.5 英里延伸，花了 20 亿美元。也就是说，在 LA 修地铁大约要 10 亿美元一英里。而这还不是世界上效用最高的地铁。所以，常规挖隧道确实非常困难。我认为我们需要在每英里隧道成本上至少实现十倍的改善。
Chris AndersonAnd how could you achieve that?你怎么做到呢？
Elon MuskActually, if you just do two things, you can get to approximately an order of magnitude improvement, and I think you can go beyond that. So, the first thing to do is to cut the tunnel diameter by a factor of two or more. A single road lane tunnel, according to regulations, has to be 26 feet, maybe 28 feet in diameter to allow for crashes and emergency vehicles and sufficient ventilation for combustion engine cars.其实，只要做两件事，你就能实现大约一个数量级的改善，而且我认为还可以超过这个数字。第一件事是把隧道直径缩小一半甚至更多。按照规定，单车道隧道的直径必须达到 26 英尺，甚至 28 英尺，以容纳事故救援车辆，并为燃油车提供足够的通风。
Elon MuskBut if you shrink that diameter to what we’re attempting, which is 12 feet, which is plenty to get an electric skate through, you drop the diameter by a factor of two and the cross-sectional area by a factor of four, and the tunneling cost scales with the cross-sectional area. So that’s roughly a half-order of magnitude improvement right there.但如果把直径缩小到我们目标的 12 英尺——这对电动滑板车来说完全够用——直径缩小了 2 倍，横截面积缩小了 4 倍，而挖掘成本与横截面积成比例。这样一来，大约就有了半个数量级的改善。
Elon MuskThen tunneling machines currently tunnel for half the time, then they stop, and then the rest of the time is putting in reinforcements for the tunnel wall. If you design the machine instead to do continuous tunneling and reinforcing, that will give you a factor of two improvement. Combine that, and that’s a factor of eight.而且，目前的掘进机有一半时间在挖掘，然后停下来，剩下的时间都在为隧道壁加固。如果把机器设计成能连续掘进和加固，就能再提升 2 倍。两者叠加，就是 8 倍。
Elon MuskAlso, these machines are far from being at their power or thermal limits, so you can jack up the power to the machine substantially. I think you can get at least a factor of two, maybe a factor of four or five improvement on top of that.另外，这些机器远远没有发挥其功率或热效率的极限，所以你可以大幅提升机器的功率。我认为在此基础上还可以再提升至少 2 倍，甚至 4 到 5 倍。
Elon MuskSo, I think there’s a fairly straightforward series of steps to get somewhere in excess of an order of magnitude improvement in the cost per mile, and our target actually is – we’ve got a pet snail called Gary, this is from Gary the snail from “South Park”, I mean, sorry, “SpongeBob SquarePants”. So, Gary is capable of – currently he’s capable of going 14 times faster than a tunnel-boring machine.所以，我认为通过一系列相当直接的步骤，可以将每英里隧道成本提升超过一个数量级。我们的目标……我们有一只宠物蜗牛叫 Gary，这个名字来自《海绵宝宝》里的 Gary 蜗牛——不好意思，我刚说错了是《南方公园》，其实是《海绵宝宝》。目前，Gary 的速度是掘进机的 14 倍。
Chris AndersonYou want to beat Gary.你想打败 Gary。
Elon MuskWe want to beat Gary. He’s not a patient little fellow, and that will be victory. Victory is beating the snail.我们想打败 Gary。他可不是个有耐心的小家伙，打败这只蜗牛就是胜利。胜利就是超越蜗牛。
Chris AndersonBut a lot of people imagining, dreaming about future cities, they imagine that actually the solution is flying cars, drones, etc. You go aboveground. Why isn’t that a better solution? You save all that tunneling cost.但很多人在想象、憧憬未来城市的时候，他们觉得解决方案其实是飞行汽车、无人机之类的，也就是飞到地面以上。为什么那不是更好的解决方案？还能省掉所有挖掘成本。
Elon MuskRight. I’m in favor of flying things, obviously; I do rockets, so I like things that fly. This is not some inherent bias against flying things, but there is a challenge with flying cars in that they’ll be quite noisy, the wind force generated will be very high. Let’s just say that if something’s flying over your head, a whole bunch of flying cars going all over the place, that is not an anxiety-reducing situation. You don’t think to yourself, “Well, I feel better about today.” You’re thinking, “Did they service their hubcap, or is it going to come off and guillotine me?” Things like that.没错。我本人是支持飞行的——我做火箭，我喜欢飞行的东西。这不是什么对飞行的天生偏见，但飞行汽车有个难题：它们会非常嘈杂，产生的风力也非常大。我只能说，如果有东西飞过你头顶，一大堆飞行汽车到处乱飞，那可不是让人放松焦虑的场景。你不会心想，"嗯，今天感觉好多了。"你脑子里转的是："他们有没有维护过轮毂盖，会不会掉下来把我头给削掉？"诸如此类的。
Chris AndersonSo, you’ve got this vision of future cities with these rich, 3D networks of tunnels underneath. Is there a tie-in here with Hyperloop? Could you apply these tunnels to use for this Hyperloop idea you released a few years ago?所以你有一个未来城市的构想，地下是密集的 3D 隧道网络。这和 Hyperloop 有关联吗？你能把这些隧道用于你几年前发布的 Hyperloop 想法吗？
Elon MuskYeah, so we’ve been sort of puttering around with the Hyperloop stuff for a while. We built a Hyperloop test track adjacent to SpaceX, just for a student competition, to encourage innovative ideas in transport. And it actually ends up being the biggest vacuum chamber in the world after the Large Hadron Collider by volume. So it was quite fun to do that, but it was kind of a hobby thing.是的，我们一直在磨磨蹭蹭地搞 Hyperloop 这个东西。我们在 SpaceX 旁边建了一条 Hyperloop 测试轨道，专门用于学生竞赛，鼓励交通领域的创新想法。这实际上也成了世界上继大型强子对撞机（Large Hadron Collider）之后体积最大的真空腔体。做这件事相当有趣，但基本上是个爱好项目。
Elon MuskAnd then we think we might – so we’ve built a little pusher car to push the student pods, but we’re going to try seeing how fast we can make the pusher go if it’s not pushing something. So, we’re cautiously optimistic we’ll be able to be faster than the world’s fastest bullet train even in a .8-mile stretch.然后我们在想——我们造了一辆小推车来推动学生的舱体，但我们打算试试看，如果不推东西的话，能把这辆推车开到多快。我们谨慎乐观地认为，即使在 0.8 英里的距离内，也能超越世界上最快的高铁。
Chris AndersonWhoa. Good brakes.哇。刹车得给力啊。
Elon MuskYeah, I mean, it’s – yeah. It’s either going to smash into tiny pieces or go quite fast.嗯，就是——对。要么撞成碎片，要么跑得飞快。
Chris AndersonBut you can picture, then, a Hyperloop in a tunnel running quite long distances.但你能想象，在隧道里跑 Hyperloop，跑很长的距离。
Elon MuskExactly. And looking at tunneling technology, it turns out that in order to make a tunnel, you have to… – In order to seal against the water table, you’ve got to typically design a tunnel wall to be good to about five or six atmospheres. So to go to vacuum is only one atmosphere, or near-vacuum. Actually, it sort of turns out that automatically, if you build a tunnel that is good enough to resist the water table, it is automatically capable of holding vacuum.完全可以。而且研究了一下隧道技术，发现要建造隧道，你必须……为了防止地下水渗透，隧道壁通常需要设计成能承受大约 5 到 6 个大气压。而真空只有 1 个大气压，或者接近真空。实际上，如果你建了一条能够抵抗地下水位压力的隧道，它自动就有能力维持真空。
Chris AndersonAnd so you could actually picture, what kind of length the tunnel is in Elon’s future to running Hyperloop?那你能不能描绘一下，在 Elon 的未来构想中，Hyperloop 隧道会有多长？
Elon MuskI think there’s no real length limit. You could dig as much as you want. I think if you were to do something like a DC-to-New York Hyperloop, you’d probably want to go underground the entire way because it’s a high-density area. You’re going under a lot of buildings and houses, and if you go deep enough, you cannot detect the tunnel.我认为长度上没有实际限制，想挖多长就多长。我认为如果要做类似 DC 到 New York 的 Hyperloop，你可能会希望全程都在地下，因为沿途人口密集，要穿越大量建筑和住宅。但只要挖得足够深，就完全察觉不到隧道的存在。
Elon MuskSometimes people think, well, it’s going to be pretty annoying to have a tunnel dug under my house. Like, if that tunnel is dug more than about three or four tunnel diameters beneath your house, you will not be able to detect it being dug at all. In fact, if you’re able to detect the tunnel being dug, whatever device you are using, you can get a lot of money for that device from the Israeli military, who is trying to detect tunnels from Hamas, and from the US Customs and Border patrol that try and detect drug tunnels.有时候人们会想，在我家下面挖隧道肯定很烦人。但事实是，如果那条隧道挖的深度超过隧道直径的三到四倍，你根本察觉不到正在施工。其实，如果你真的能探测到隧道施工，不管你用什么设备，以色列军方会花大价钱买这套设备——他们正在试图探测 Hamas 的地道；美国海关和边境巡逻队也会买，他们在试图探测贩毒地道。
Elon MuskSo, the reality is that earth is incredibly good at absorbing vibrations, and once the tunnel depth is below a certain level, it is undetectable. Maybe if you have a very sensitive seismic instrument, you might be able to detect it.现实是，泥土对振动的吸收能力强得惊人，一旦隧道深度超过某个阈值，它就是完全无法探测的。也许用非常灵敏的地震仪还能测到一点。
Chris AndersonSo you’ve started a new company to do this called “The Boring Company”. Very nice. Very funny.所以你为此成立了一家新公司，叫做"The Boring Company"。很妙。很有趣。
Elon MuskWhat’s funny about that?那有什么好笑的？
Chris AndersonHow much of your time is this?这占了你多少时间？
Elon MuskIt’s maybe two or three percent.大概是 2% 到 3% 左右。
Chris AndersonYou’ve called it a hobby. This is what an Elon Musk hobby looks like.你管这叫爱好。这就是 Elon Musk 的爱好长什么样。
Elon MuskI mean, it really is, like – This is basically interns and people doing it part-time. We bought some second-hand machinery. It’s kind of puttering along, but it’s making good progress, so –我是说，它真的是……这基本上是实习生和兼职人员在做的事情。我们买了一些二手设备。就这样在那儿慢慢倒腾，但进展还不错，所以——
Chris AndersonSo, an even bigger part of your time is being spent on electrifying cars and transport through Tesla. Is one of the motivations for the tunneling project the realization that actually, in a world where cars are electric and where they’re self-driving, there may end up being more cars on the roads on any given hour that there are now?所以，你花了更多时间在通过 Tesla 推动汽车和交通电动化。隧道项目的动机之一，是不是意识到了：在一个汽车都是电动、都是自动驾驶的世界里，路上的车可能反而会比现在任何一个小时都多？
Elon MuskYeah, exactly. A lot of people think that when you make cars autonomous, they’ll be able to go faster, and that will alleviate congestion. And to some degree, that will be true, but once you have shared autonomy where it’s much cheaper to go by car, and you can go point to point, the affordability of going in a car will be better than that of a bus. Like, it will cost less than a bus ticket. So, the amount of driving that will occur will be much greater with shared autonomy and actually, traffic will get far worse.对，完全正确。很多人以为，一旦汽车实现自动驾驶，就能开得更快，从而缓解拥堵。这在一定程度上是对的，但一旦出现共享自动驾驶——出行成本大幅下降，可以点对点，坐车的实惠程度会超过坐公交——它的出行成本会比公交票还低。所以，驾车出行总量会大幅增加，实际上交通反而会更加拥堵。
Chris AndersonYou started Tesla with the goal of persuading the world that electrification was the future of cars, and a few years ago, people were laughing at you. Now, not so much.你当年创办 Tesla 的目标，是说服世界电动化才是汽车的未来，几年前大家都在嘲笑你。现在，没那么多笑声了。
Elon MuskOkay. I don’t know. I don’t know.好吧。我也不知道。我也不知道。
Chris AndersonBut isn’t it true that pretty much every auto manufacturer has announced serious electrification plans for the short- to medium-term future?但是，几乎每一家汽车制造商不都已经宣布了中短期内的电动化计划了吗？
Elon MuskYeah. Yeah. I think almost every automaker has some electric vehicle program. They vary in seriousness. Some are very serious about transitioning entirely to electric, and some are just dabbling in it. And some, amazingly, are still pursuing fuel cells, but I think that won’t last much longer.是的。我认为几乎每家汽车厂商都有某种电动车项目。严肃程度各不相同。有些是非常认真地要全面转型电动化，有些只是试试水。还有一些，令人惊讶地还在追求燃料电池，但我认为那不会维持太久了。
Elon MuskChris Anderson : But isn’t there a sense, though, Elon, where you can now just declare victory and say, you know, “We did it.” Let the world electrify, and you go on and focus on other stuff?但是，Elon，有没有一种感觉：你现在其实可以宣告胜利，说「我们做到了」，然后让世界自己去电动化，你去专注其他事情？
Elon MuskI intend to stay with Tesla as far into the future as I can imagine, and there are a lot of exciting things that we have coming. Obviously, the Model 3 is coming soon. We’ll be unveiling the Tesla Semi truck.我打算尽可能长久地留在 Tesla，在我能想象的未来里一直待下去。我们还有很多令人兴奋的事情要做。显然，Model 3 即将推出。我们还会发布 Tesla 半挂卡车。
Chris AndersonOkay, we’re going to come to this. So, Model 3, it’s supposed to be coming in July-ish.好，我们之后会聊到这个。那么，Model 3，预计七月份左右推出。
Elon MuskYeah, it’s looking quite good for starting production in July.是的，七月份开始量产看起来很有希望。
Chris AndersonWow. One of the things that people are so excited about is the fact that it’s got autopilot. And you put out this video a while back showing what that technology would look like.哇。让大家如此兴奋的一点是它带有 autopilot。你之前发布了一段视频，展示了那项技术的样子。
Elon MuskYeah.对。
Chris AndersonThere’s obviously autopilot in Model S right now. (showing the video) What are we seeing here?目前 Model S 上已经有 autopilot 了。（播放视频）我们在看什么？
Elon MuskSo, this is using only cameras and GPS. There’s no LIDAR or radar being used here. This is just using passive optical, which is essentially what a person uses. The whole road system is meant to be navigated with passive optical or cameras, and so once you solve cameras or vision, then autonomy is solved. If you don’t solve vision, it’s not solved. So that’s why our focus is so heavily on having a vision neural net that’s very effective for road conditions.这里只用了摄像头和 GPS，没有使用 LIDAR 或雷达。这纯粹是被动光学，本质上和人类驾驶时用的方式一样。整个道路系统本来就是为被动光学或摄像头导航而设计的，所以一旦你攻克了摄像头或视觉，自动驾驶就攻克了。如果视觉没解决，就没解决。这就是为什么我们非常专注于打造一个对道路场景非常有效的视觉神经网络。
Chris AndersonRight. Many other people are going the LIDAR route. You want cameras plus radar is most of it.好的。很多其他公司走的是 LIDAR 路线。你这边主要靠摄像头加雷达。
Elon MuskYou can absolutely be superhuman with just cameras. Like, you can probably do it ten times better than humans would, just cameras.只用摄像头完全可以实现超人级别的表现。比如，你可能只用摄像头就能做到比人类好十倍。
Chris AndersonSo, the new cars being sold right now have eight cameras in them. They can’t yet do what that showed. When will they be able to?所以，现在出售的新车上有 8 个摄像头。它们还不能做到视频里展示的那些。什么时候能做到？
Elon MuskI think we’re still on track for being able to go cross-country from LA to New York by the end of the year, fully autonomous.我认为我们仍然有望在年底前实现从 LA 到 New York 的跨州全自动驾驶。
Chris AndersonOK, so by the end of the year, you’re saying, someone’s going to sit in a Tesla without touching the steering wheel, tap in “New York,” off it goes.好的，也就是说到今年年底，你说会有人坐进 Tesla，完全不需要碰方向盘，输入"New York"，然后出发。
Elon MuskYeah.是的。
Chris AndersonWon’t ever have to touch the wheel – by the end of 2017.全程都不需要碰方向盘——在 2017 年底之前。
Elon MuskYes. Essentially, in November or December of this year, we should be able to go all the way from a parking lot in California to a parking lot in New York, no controls touched at any point during the entire journey.是的。基本上，在今年十一月或十二月，我们应该能够实现从加利福尼亚一个停车场全程开到纽约的停车场，整个旅程中任何时候都不需要触碰任何控制器。
Chris AndersonAmazing. But part of that is possible because you’ve already got a fleet of Teslas driving all these roads. You’re accumulating a huge amount of data of that national road system.太惊人了。但这在一定程度上是可行的，因为你已经有一个车队的 Tesla 在这些路上跑了。你积累了大量全国道路系统的数据。
Elon MuskYes, but the thing that will be interesting is that I’m actually fairly confident it will be able to do that route even if you change the route dynamically. So, it’s fairly easy… – If you say I’m going to be really good at one specific route, that’s one thing.是的，但有趣的地方在于，我其实相当有把握，即使你实时改变路线，它也能应对。说「我要在某一条特定路线上做到非常厉害」，那是一回事。
Elon MuskBut it should be able to go, really be very good, certainly once you enter a highway, to go anywhere on the highway system in a given country. So, it’s not sort of limited to LA to New York. We could change it and make it Seattle-Florida, that day, in real-time. You were going from LA to New York. Now go from LA to Toronto.但它应该能做到真正全面覆盖，尤其是一旦上了高速公路，就能在一个国家的整个高速公路网络内任意行驶。所以，它并不局限于 LA 到 New York。我们可以临时改，变成 Seattle 到 Florida，实时切换。本来要从 LA 去 New York？现在改成从 LA 去 Toronto。
Chris AndersonLeaving aside regulation for a second, in terms of the technology alone, the time when someone will be able to buy one of your cars and literally just take the hands off the wheel and go to sleep and wake up and find that they’ve arrived, how far away is that, to do that safely?先不管法规，只从技术层面来讲，什么时候有人能买一辆你的车，真正双手离开方向盘，睡着，醒来发现已经到了目的地——要安全地做到这一点，还有多远？
Elon MuskI think that’s about two years. The real trick of it is not how do you make it work say 99.9 percent of the time, because, like, if a car crashes one in a thousand times, then you’re probably still not going to be comfortable falling asleep. You shouldn’t be, certainly. It’s never going to be perfect. No system is going to be perfect, but if you say it’s perhaps – the car is unlikely to crash in a hundred lifetimes, or a thousand lifetimes, then people are like, OK, wow, if I were to live a thousand lives, I would still most likely never experience a crash, then that’s probably OK.我认为大约两年。真正的难点不在于如何让它 99.9% 的情况下运转正常，因为如果一辆车每一千次有一次事故，你可能还是不会放心睡着。你确实不该放心。它永远不会完美，没有任何系统是完美的。但如果说这辆车可能一百个生命里都不会出一次事故，甚至一千个生命里都不会——那时候人们就会觉得，好吧，哇，就算我活一千辈子，多半也不会经历一次车祸，那大概就可以了。
Chris AndersonTo sleep. I guess the big concern of yours is that people may actually get seduced too early to think that this is safe, and that you’ll have some horrible incidents happen that puts things back.睡着。我猜你最大的担忧是，人们可能会过早地被诱惑，以为这已经很安全了，然后出现一些可怕的事故，让整件事倒退。
Elon MuskWell, I think that the autonomy system is likely to at least mitigate the crash, except in rare circumstances. The thing to appreciate about vehicle safety is this is probabilistic. I mean, there’s some chance that any time a human driver gets in a car, that they will have an accident that is their fault. It’s never zero. So really, the key threshold for autonomy is how much better does autonomy need to be than a person before you can rely on it?我认为，除了极少数情况，自动驾驶系统至少能减轻事故的影响。关于汽车安全需要理解的一点是：这是概率问题。每次人类驾驶员上车，他都有一定概率因为自己的失误出事故，这个概率永远不是零。所以，关键问题是：自动驾驶需要比人类好多少，才能让人真正依赖它？
Chris AndersonBut once you get literally safe hands-off driving, the power to disrupt the whole industry seems massive, because at that point you’ve spoken of people being able to buy a car that drops you off at work, and then you let it go and provide a sort of Uber-like service to other people, earn you money, maybe even cover the cost of your lease of that car, so you can kind of get a car for free. Is that really likely?但一旦真正实现了安全的双手离轮驾驶，颠覆整个行业的力量将是巨大的，因为到那时——你曾经说过——人们可以买一辆车送自己去上班，然后让它出去提供类似 Uber 的服务，帮你赚钱，甚至能覆盖汽车的租赁费用，这样一辆车几乎就是免费的。这真的可能发生吗？
Elon MuskYes, absolutely. This is what will happen. There will be a shared autonomy fleet where you buy your car, and you can choose to use that car exclusively, you could choose to have it be used only by friends and family, only by other drivers who are rated five stars, you can choose to share it sometimes but not other times. That’s 100 percent what will occur. It’s just a question of when.是的，绝对会。这就是将要发生的事。会有一个共享自动驾驶车队，你买了车，可以选择只自己用，可以选择只给朋友和家人用，只给评分 5 星的其他驾驶员用，也可以选择有时共享有时不共享。这 100% 会发生，只是时间早晚的问题。
Chris AndersonWow. So, you mentioned the Semi, and I think you’re planning to announce this in September, but I’m curious whether there’s anything you could show us today?哇。你刚才提到了半挂车，我知道你计划九月份发布，但我很好奇今天你是否能给我们展示点什么？
Elon MuskI will show you a teaser shot of the truck. (showing) It’s alive.我给你们看一张卡车的预告图。（展示）它活了。
Chris AndersonOkay.好的。
Elon MuskThat’s definitely a case where we want to be cautious about the autonomy features.这绝对是个让我们对自动驾驶功能保持谨慎的领域。
Chris AndersonWe can’t see that much of it, but it doesn’t look like just a little friendly neighborhood truck. It looks kind of badass. What sort of semi is this?我们看不太清楚，但它看起来不像一辆普通的邻家友好小卡车。看起来相当酷炫。这是什么类型的半挂车？
Elon MuskThis is a heavy-duty, long-range semi-truck. It’s the highest weight capability and with long-range. Essentially it’s meant to alleviate the heavy-duty trucking loads. And this is something which people do not today think is possible. They think the truck doesn’t have enough power or it doesn’t have enough range, and then with the Tesla Semi, we want to show that no, an electric truck actually can out-torque any diesel semi. And if you had a tug-of-war competition, the Tesla Semi will tug the diesel semi uphill.这是一辆重型长续航半挂车。具备最高重量运载能力，同时拥有长续航。从本质上说，它是为了承担重型卡车运输负荷而设计的。这是人们今天认为不可能实现的事情——他们觉得卡车功率不够，或者续航不够。但我们想用 Tesla Semi 证明：不，电动卡车确实能超越任何柴油半挂车的扭矩。如果来一场拔河比赛，Tesla Semi 能在上坡路上把柴油半挂车拖上去。
Chris AndersonThat’s pretty cool. And short term, these aren’t driverless. These are going to be trucks that truck drivers want to drive.太酷了。短期内，这些车不是无人驾驶的，是卡车司机真正想开的那种。
Elon MuskYes. So, what will be really fun about this is you have a flat torque RPM curve with an electric motor, whereas, with a diesel motor or any kind of internal combustion engine car, you’ve got a torque RPM curve that looks like a hill. So this will be a very spry truck. You can drive this around like a sports car. There’s no gears. It’s, like, single speed.是的。有个有趣的地方是：电动机的扭矩-转速曲线是平的，而柴油发动机或任何内燃机的扭矩-转速曲线是山形的。所以这将是一辆非常灵活的卡车，你可以像开跑车一样开它。没有换挡，单速的。
Chris AndersonThere’s a great movie to be made here somewhere. I don’t know what it is and I don’t know that it ends well, but it’s a great movie.这里有部大片可以拍，我不知道是什么，也不知道结局如何，但一定是部好片子。
Elon MuskIt’s quite bizarre test-driving, when I was driving the test prototype for the first truck. It’s really weird because you’re driving around, and you’re just so nimble, and you’re in this giant truck.试驾经历确实很奇特，当时我在测试第一辆卡车的原型。真的很诡异，你开着它到处跑，身手如此灵活，然后你坐在这个庞然大物里面。
Chris AndersonWait, you’ve already driven a prototype?等等，你已经开过原型车了？
Elon MuskYeah, I drove it around the parking lot, and I was like, this is crazy.是啊，我在停车场开着它转了转，当时就在想，这玩意儿也太疯了。
Chris AndersonWow. This is no vaporware.哇。这可不是什么空头承诺。
Elon MuskIt’s just like, driving this giant truck and making these mad maneuvers.就是说，开着这辆大卡车做着各种疯狂的操作。
Chris AndersonThis is cool. OK, from a really badass picture to a kind of less badass picture. (Showing) This is just a cute house from “Desperate Housewives” or something. What on earth is going on here?太酷了。好，从一张超级硬核的图换到一张没那么硬核的图。（展示）这只是一栋《绝望主妇》里那种可爱的房子之类的。这到底是在说什么？
Elon MuskWell, this illustrates the picture of the future that I think is how things will evolve. You’ve got an electric car in the driveway. If you look in between the electric car and the house, there are actually three Powerwalls stacked up against the side of the house, and then that house roof is a solar roof. So that’s an actual solar glass roof.好，这张图展示了我认为未来会如何演变的画面。车道上有一辆电动车。如果你看电动车和房子之间，那里实际上有三块 Powerwall 叠放在房子侧边，然后那个房子的屋顶是太阳能屋顶。那是真正的太阳能玻璃屋顶。
Chris AndersonOkay.好的。
Elon MuskThat’s a picture of a real – well, admittedly, it’s a real fake house. That’s a real fake house.那是一张真实的——嗯，说实话，那是一栋真实的假房子。那是一栋真实的假房子。
Chris AndersonSo these roof tiles, some of them have in them basically solar power, the ability to –那这些屋顶瓦片，其中一些里面内置了太阳能发电功能，能够——
Elon MuskYeah. Solar glass tiles where you can adjust the texture and the color to a very fine-grained level, and then there’s sort of micro louvers in the glass, such that when you’re looking at the roof from street level or close to street level, all the tiles look the same whether there is a solar cell behind it or not. So you have an even color from the ground level. If you were to look at it from a helicopter, you would be actually able to look through and see that some of the glass tiles have a solar cell behind them and some do not. You can’t tell from street level.对。太阳能玻璃瓦片，你可以非常精细地调整纹理和颜色，然后玻璃里还有微型百叶，使得从街道水平或接近街道水平往上看屋顶时，所有瓦片看起来都一样，无论背后有没有太阳能电池。所以从地面看颜色是均匀的。如果你从直升机上往下看，你其实能看穿玻璃，分辨哪些玻璃瓦片后面有太阳能电池，哪些没有。但从街道水平是看不出来的。
Chris AndersonYou put them in the ones that are likely to see a lot of sun, and that makes these roofs super affordable, right? They’re not that much more expensive than just tiling the roof.你把太阳能电池装在那些日照最多的位置，这让这些屋顶价格非常亲民，对吧？成本不会比普通瓦片贵多少。
Elon MuskYes. We’re very confident that the cost of the roof plus the cost of electricity… – A solar glass roof will be less than the cost of a normal roof plus the cost of electricity. In other words, this will be economically a no-brainer, we think it will look great, and it will last.是的。我们非常有信心：屋顶成本加上电费……太阳能玻璃屋顶的总成本会低于普通屋顶加电费的总成本。换句话说，这在经济上将是毋庸置疑的选择，我们认为它也会很好看，而且经久耐用。
Elon MuskWe thought about having the warranty be infinity, but then people thought, well, that might sound like we’re just talking rubbish, but actually this is toughened glass. Well, after the house has collapsed and there’s nothing there, the glass tiles will still be there.我们想过把保修期设为无限期，但大家觉得那听起来像在吹牛，但实际上这是钢化玻璃。等房子倒塌了什么都没了，那些玻璃瓦片还在。
Chris AndersonI mean, this is cool. So you’re rolling this out in a couple week’s time, I think, with four different roofing types.这很酷。那你们大概两周后就要推出这个，我想，有四种不同的屋顶类型。
Elon MuskYeah, we’re starting off with two, two initially, and the second two will be introduced early next year.是的，我们先推出两种，另外两种明年初会上市。
Chris AndersonAnd what’s the scale of ambition here? How many houses do you believe could end up having this type of roofing?野心有多大？你认为最终会有多少房子用上这种屋顶？
Elon MuskI think eventually almost all houses will have a solar roof. The thing is to consider the time scale here to be probably on the order of 40 or 50 years. So, on average, a roof is replaced every 20 to 25 years. But you don’t start replacing all roofs immediately. But eventually, if you say were to fast-forward to say 15 years from now, it will be unusual to have a roof that does not have solar.我认为最终几乎所有房子都会有太阳能屋顶。这里要考虑的时间尺度大概是 40 到 50 年。平均来说，屋顶每 20 到 25 年会更换一次。但你不会一开始就立刻全部换。不过如果快进到 15 年后，没有太阳能的屋顶将会是少数。
Chris AndersonIs there a mental model thing that people don’t get here that because of the shift in the cost, the economics of solar power, most houses actually have enough sunlight on their roof pretty much to power all of their needs. If you could capture the power, it could pretty much power all their need. You could go off-grid, kind of.这里有没有一个大家没想通的心理模型——由于太阳能成本的转变，大多数房子屋顶上的阳光其实已经足够满足所有用电需求。只要能把这些电力捕获，几乎就能满足全部需要。你基本可以脱网，对吗？
Elon MuskIt depends on where you are and what the house size is relative to the roof area, but it’s a fair statement to say that most houses in the US have enough roof area to power all the needs of the house.这取决于你所在的位置，以及房子面积相对于屋顶面积的比例，但说大多数美国房屋的屋顶面积足以满足房子的全部用电需求，这个说法基本上是成立的。
Chris AndersonSo, the key to the economics of the cars, the Semi, of these houses is the falling price of lithium-ion batteries, which you’ve made a huge bet on as Tesla. In many ways, that’s almost the core competency. And you’ve decided that to really, like, own that competency; you just have to build the world’s largest manufacturing plant to double the world’s supply of lithium-ion batteries. What is this? (Showing picture)所以，汽车、半挂车、这些房子经济可行的关键，是锂电池价格的下降——你在 Tesla 上对此下了大注。从很多方面看，这几乎是核心竞争力。为了真正掌握这一竞争力，你决定建造全球最大的制造工厂，以便将世界锂电池产量翻倍。这是什么？（展示图片）
Elon MuskYeah, so that’s the Gigafactory; progress so far on the Gigafactory. Eventually, you can sort of roughly see that there’s sort of a diamond shape overall, and when it’s fully done, it’ll look like a giant diamond, or that’s the idea behind it, and it’s aligned on true north. It’s a small detail.对，那就是 Gigafactory；这是 Gigafactory 目前的建设进展。你大致可以看出整体是一个菱形，完全建成后会像一颗巨大的钻石——这是背后的设计理念——而且它是按照真北方向对齐的。这是一个小细节。
Chris AndersonAnd capable of producing, eventually, like a hundred gigawatt-hours of batteries a year.最终能够每年生产大约一百 gigawatt-hours 的电池，对吧？
Elon MuskA hundred gigawatt-hours. We think probably more, but yeah.一百 gigawatt-hours。我们认为可能更多，但大概是这个数量级。
Chris AndersonAnd they’re actually being produced right now.而且现在已经在生产了。
Elon MuskThey’re in production already.已经在量产了。
Chris AndersonYou guys put out this video. (Showing video) I mean, is that speeded up?你们放出了这段视频。（播放视频）这是加速播放的吗？
Elon MuskThat’s the slowed-down version.这是减速版本。
Chris AndersonHow fast does it actually go?实际速度有多快？
Elon MuskWell, when it’s running at full speed, you can’t actually see the cells without a strobe light. They’re just blur.嗯，全速运转的时候，不用频闪灯根本看不见电芯，全都是模糊的。
Chris AndersonOne of your core ideas, Elon, about what makes an exciting future is a future where we no longer feel guilty about energy. Help us picture this. How many Gigafactories, if you like, does it take to get us there?Elon，你核心想法之一是：激动人心的未来，是一个我们不再需要为能源感到愧疚的未来。帮我们想象一下，需要多少个 Gigafactory 才能实现那个愿景？
Elon MuskIt’s about a hundred, roughly. It’s not 10; it’s not a thousand. Most likely, a hundred.大约一百个左右。不是 10 个，也不是 1000 个，最有可能是一百个。
Chris AndersonSee, I find this amazing. You can picture what it would take to move the world off this vast fossil fuel thing. It’s like you’re building one, it costs five billion dollars, or whatever, and maybe the next one, five to 10 billion dollars. Like, it’s kind of cool that you can picture that project. And you’re planning to do, at Tesla – announce another two this year.我觉得这太厉害了。你能想清楚把世界从这套庞大的化石燃料体系里拉出来需要什么——就好像你先建一个，花了 50 亿美元或者多少，然后再下一个，50 到 100 亿。这种你能把这个项目看清楚的感觉，真的很酷。而且 Tesla 今年计划再宣布两个。
Elon MuskI think we’ll announce locations for somewhere between two and four Gigafactories later this year. Yeah, probably four.我认为今年晚些时候我们会公布两到四个 Gigafactory 的选址。大概是四个吧。
Chris AndersonNo more teasing from you for here? Like – where, continent? You can say no.你不再多透露一点？比如在哪个大洲？你可以拒绝回答。
Elon MuskWe need to address a global market.我们需要覆盖全球市场。
Chris AndersonOkay. This is cool. I think we should talk for – actually, global market. I’m going to ask you one question about politics, only one. I’m kind of sick of politics, but I do want to ask you this. You’re on a body now giving advice to a guy –好的。这很酷。我想聊一下——说到全球市场。我要问你一个政治问题，只问一个。我有点烦政治了，但我必须问这个。你现在在一个委员会里给一个人提建议——
Elon MuskWho?什么人？
Chris AndersonWho has said he doesn’t really believe in climate change, and there’s a lot of people out there who think you shouldn’t be doing that. They’d like you to walk away from that. What would you say to them?他说自己不太相信气候变化，现在有很多人认为你不该这样做，希望你退出来。你怎么说？
Elon MuskWell, I think that first of all, I’m just on two advisory councils where the format consists of going around the room and asking people’s opinion on things, and so there’s like a meeting every month or two. That’s the sum total of my contribution.首先，我只是在两个顾问委员会里，会议形式就是轮流询问大家对某些事情的看法，大概每一到两个月开一次会。这就是我参与的全部。
Elon MuskBut I think to the degree that there are people in the room who are arguing in favor of doing something about climate change or social issues, — I’ve used the meetings I’ve had thus far to argue in favor of immigration and in favor of climate change. (Applause) And if I hadn’t done that, that wasn’t on the agenda before. So maybe nothing will happen, but at least the words were said.但我认为，在那个房间里，如果有人在为气候变化或社会议题发声，我在迄今为止参加的那几次会议里，一直在力挺移民政策，也一直在力挺应对气候变化。（掌声）如果我不在那里，这些议题根本不在议程上。所以也许什么都不会发生，但至少那些话说出来了。
Chris AndersonOkay. So, let’s talk SpaceX and Mars. Last time you were here, you spoke about what seemed like a kind of incredibly ambitious dream to develop rockets that were actually reusable. And you’ve only gone and done it.好的。那我们来聊聊 SpaceX 和火星。上次你来这里，你谈到了一个当时看起来无比雄心勃勃的梦想——开发真正可重复使用的火箭。然后你真的做到了。
Elon MuskFinally. It took a long time.终于。花了很长时间。
Chris AndersonTalk us through this. What are we looking at here? (Showing video)给我们讲讲这个。我们看到的是什么？（播放视频）
Elon MuskSo, this is one of our rocket boosters coming back from very high and fast in space. So just delivered the upper stage at high velocity. I think this might have been at sort of Mach 7 or so, delivery of the upper stage. (Booster landing)这是我们的一个火箭助推器，从很高的高空高速从太空返回。它刚刚在高速状态下将上面级送出——我想这大概是在大约 Mach 7 左右完成了上面级分离。（助推器着陆）
Chris AndersonSo that was a sped-up –那是加速——
Elon MuskThat was the slowed-down version.那是减速版本。
Chris AndersonI thought that was the sped-up version. But I mean, that’s amazing, and several of these failed before you finally figured out how to do it, but now you’ve done this, what, five or six times?我以为那是加速版本。但这真的很惊人，中途失败了好几次才最终成功，现在你们已经做到了，有五六次了吧？
Elon MuskI think we’re at eight or nine.我想应该是八九次了。
Chris AndersonAnd for the first time, you’ve actually reflown one of the rockets that landed.而且你们第一次让落地回收的火箭重新飞了。
Elon MuskYeah, we landed the rocket booster and then prepped it for flight again and flew it again, so it’s the first reflight of an orbital booster where that reflight is relevant. It’s important to appreciate that reusability is only relevant if it is rapid and complete. Like an aircraft or a car, the reusability is rapid and complete. You do not send your aircraft to Boeing in-between flights.是的，我们让火箭助推器落地，然后准备好再次发射，然后又飞了一次，这是轨道级助推器有意义的首次复飞。重要的是要理解，复用性只有在快速且完整的前提下才有意义。就像飞机或汽车，复用是快速且完整的。你不会在两次飞行之间把飞机送回 Boeing 去大修。
Chris AndersonRight. So, this is allowing you to dream of this really ambitious idea of sending many, many, many people to Mars in, what 10 or 20 years time, I guess. And you’ve designed this outrageous rocket to do it. Help us understand the scale of this thing. (Showing picture)好的。那这让你有了把大量大量的人送去火星的宏大梦想，大概是 10 到 20 年内吧。而你设计了这个大得离谱的火箭来实现它。帮我们理解一下这东西的规模。（展示图片）
Elon MuskWell, visually you can see that’s a person. And that’s the vehicle.从视觉上可以看出，那是一个人。那是这个飞行器。
Chris AndersonIf that was a skyscraper, that’s like, did I read that, a 40-story skyscraper?如果那是一栋摩天大楼，那大概是——我没看错的话，是一栋 40 层的摩天大楼？
Elon MuskProbably a little more, yeah. The thrust level of this is really… – This configuration is about four times the thrust of the Saturn V moon rocket.可能还要再高一点。这个推力大得……这个构型的推力大约是 Saturn V 登月火箭的四倍。
Chris AndersonFour times the thrust of the biggest rocket humanity ever created before.人类有史以来造出的最大火箭的四倍推力。
Elon MuskYes.是的。
Chris AndersonAs one does.就这么做了。
Elon MuskYeah. In units of 747, a 747 is only about a quarter of a million pounds of thrust, so for every 10 million pounds of thrust, there’s forty 747s. So, this would be the thrust equivalent of 120 747s, with all engines blazing.对。用 747 来换算，一架 747 大约只有 25 万磅的推力，所以每 1000 万磅推力相当于 40 架 747。那么这个就相当于 120 架 747 同时全发动机开足马力时的推力。
Chris AndersonAnd so even with a machine designed to escape Earth’s gravity, I think you told me last time, this thing could actually take a fully loaded 747, people, cargo, everything, into orbit.即使是一台为逃脱地球引力而设计的机器——我记得你上次告诉我——这东西居然能把一架满载的 747，连乘客带货物，送入轨道。
Elon MuskExactly. This can take a fully loaded 747 with maximum fuel, maximum passengers, maximum cargo on the 747 – this can take it as cargo.完全正确。这能把一架满载的 747——加满油、坐满人、装满货——作为货物带入轨道。
Chris AndersonBased on this, you presented recently this Interplanetary Transport System, which is visualized this way. (Showing film) This is a scene you picture in, what, 30 years’ time? 20 years time? People walking into this rocket.基于此，你最近展示了这个星际运输系统（Interplanetary Transport System），视觉化成这个样子。（播放视频）这是你想象中 30 年后？20 年后的场景？人们走进这枚火箭。
Elon MuskI’m hopeful it’s sort of an eight- to 10-year time frame. Aspirationally, that’s our target. Our internal targets are more aggressive, but I think… – (Laughter) While vehicle seems quite large and is large by comparison with other rockets, I think the future spacecraft will make this look like a rowboat. The future spaceships will be truly enormous.我希望大约是 8 到 10 年的时间框架。这是我们雄心勃勃的目标。我们内部的目标更激进，但我认为……（笑声）虽然这个飞行器和其他火箭相比已经很大了，但我认为未来的飞船会让这个看起来像一艘小舢板。未来的飞船将是真正的巨无霸。
Chris AndersonWhy, Elon? Why do we need to build a city on Mars with a million people on it in your lifetime, which I think is kind of what you’ve said you’d love to do?为什么，Elon？我们为什么要在你有生之年在火星上建一座拥有一百万人的城市——我觉得你大概是这么说过的？
Elon MuskI think it’s important to have a future that is inspiring and appealing. I just think there have to be reasons that you get up in the morning and you want to live. Like, why do you want to live? What’s the point? What inspires you? What do you love about the future? And if we’re not out there, if the future does not include being out there among the stars and being a multiplanet species, I find that it’s incredibly depressing if that’s not the future that we’re going to have.我认为拥有一个鼓舞人心、令人向往的未来很重要。我只是认为必须要有让你早上起床、想要活下去的理由。比如，你为什么想活着？有什么意义？什么东西激励你？你对未来有什么热爱？如果我们不在那里，如果未来不包括遨游星际、成为多星球物种，那我觉得这个前景令人无比沮丧。
Chris AndersonPeople want to position this as an either-or, that there are so many desperate things happening on the planet now from climate to poverty to, you know, you pick your issue. And this feels like a distraction. You shouldn’t be thinking about this. You should be solving what’s here and now. And to be fair, you’ve done a fair old bit to actually do that with your work on sustainable energy. But why not just do that?人们想把这说成是非此即彼的选择：地球上现在有那么多紧迫的问题，从气候到贫困，你想选什么问题都有。而这感觉像是一种分心。你不该想这些，你应该解决眼前的问题。说句公道话，你在可持续能源方面的工作已经为此做了相当多的贡献。但为什么不就只做那个？
Elon MuskI think there’s… – I look at the future from the standpoint of probabilities. It’s like a branching stream of probabilities, and there are actions that we can take that affect those probabilities or that accelerate one thing or slow down another thing. I may introduce something new to the probability stream. Sustainable energy will happen, no matter what. If there was no Tesla, if Tesla never existed, it would have to happen out of necessity. It’s tautological.我认为……我从概率的角度看待未来。它就像一条分叉的概率之流，我们可以采取的行动会影响这些概率，或者加速某件事，或者减缓另一件事。我可能会为概率之流引入一些新的东西。可持续能源无论如何都会实现，不管有没有我。如果没有 Tesla，如果 Tesla 从来就不存在，它也必须发生，出于必然性。这是同义反复。
Elon MuskIf you don’t have sustainable energy, it means you have unsustainable energy. Eventually, you will run out, and the laws of economics will drive civilization towards sustainable energy, inevitably. The fundamental value of a company like Tesla is the degree to which it accelerates the advent of sustainable energy, faster than it would otherwise occur.如果你没有可持续能源，就意味着你在用不可持续的能源。最终你会耗尽资源，经济规律会不可避免地把文明推向可持续能源。像 Tesla 这样的公司的根本价值，在于它加速了可持续能源到来的程度——比原本的速度更快。
Elon MuskSo, when I think, like, what is the fundamental good of a company like Tesla, I would say, hopefully, if it accelerated that by a decade, potentially more than a decade, that would be quite a good thing to occur. That’s what I consider to be the fundamental aspirational good of Tesla.所以，当我想「像 Tesla 这样的公司根本的善是什么」，我会说，如果它让这件事提前了十年，甚至超过十年，那将是相当重要的贡献。这就是我认为 Tesla 根本意义上的雄心之善。
Elon MuskThen there’s becoming a multiplanet species and space-faring civilization. This is not inevitable. It’s very important to appreciate this is not inevitable. The sustainable energy future, I think, is largely inevitable, but being a space-faring civilization is definitely not inevitable.然后是成为多星球物种和太空文明。这并不是不可避免的。这一点非常重要，请务必理解：这不是不可避免的。可持续能源的未来，我认为在很大程度上是不可避免的；但成为太空文明，绝对不是不可避免的。
Elon MuskIf you look at the progress in space, in 1969, you were able to send somebody to the moon. Then we had the Space Shuttle. The Space Shuttle could only take people to low Earth orbit. Then the Space Shuttle retired, and the United States could take no one to orbit.看看太空领域的进展：1969 年，我们能把人送上月球。然后有了航天飞机。航天飞机只能把人送到近地轨道。然后航天飞机退役了，美国连一个人都送不上轨道了。
Elon MuskSo that’s the trend. The trend is down to nothing. People are mistaken when they think that technology just automatically improves. It does not automatically improve. It only improves if a lot of people work very hard to make it better, and actually, it will, I think, by itself degrade. You look at great civilizations like Ancient Egypt, and they were able to make the pyramids, and they forgot how to do that. And then the Romans, they built these incredible aqueducts. They forgot how to do it.这就是趋势。趋势是向零滑落。人们错误地认为技术会自动进步。它不会自动进步。它只有在大量的人非常努力地推动时才会进步，实际上如果任其自然，它会退化。你看看古埃及这样伟大的文明，他们能建造金字塔，然后他们忘记了怎么做。还有罗马人，他们建造了不可思议的水道，然后他们也忘记了怎么做。
Chris AndersonElon, it almost seems, listening to you and looking at the different things you’ve done, that you’ve got this unique double motivation on everything that I find so interesting. One is this desire to work for humanity’s long-term good. The other is the desire to do something exciting. And often it feels like you feel like you need the one to drive the other.Elon，听你说话、看你做的这些事情，我几乎觉得，你在每件事上都有一种独特的双重动机，这让我非常着迷。一是为人类长远利益工作的渴望，二是做一件令人兴奋的事情的渴望。而且往往感觉你需要用一个来驱动另一个。
Chris AndersonWith Tesla, you want to have sustainable energy, so you made these super sexy, exciting cars to do it. Solar energy, we need to get there, so we need to make these beautiful roofs. We haven’t even spoken about your newest thing, which we don’t have time to do, but you want to save humanity from bad AI, and so you’re going to create this really cool brain-machine interface to give us all infinite memory and telepathy and so forth.Tesla 这边，你想要可持续能源，所以你做出了这些超级性感、令人兴奋的汽车来实现它。太阳能，我们需要去到那里，所以要做这些美丽的屋顶。我们甚至还没聊到你最新的项目，时间不够了，但你想把人类从糟糕的 AI 中拯救出来，所以你要打造这个真正酷炫的脑机接口，给我们所有人提供无限记忆和心灵感应之类的功能。
Chris AndersonAnd on Mars, it feels like what you’re saying is, yeah, we need to save humanity and have a backup plan, but also, we need to inspire humanity, and this is a way to inspire.而在火星这件事上，感觉你在说的是：是的，我们需要拯救人类、需要一个备份计划，但同时，我们需要激励人类，而这是一种激励的方式。
Elon MuskI think the value of beauty and inspiration is very much underrated, no question. But I want to be clear. I’m not trying to be anyone’s savior. That is not the… – I’m just trying to think about the future and not be sad.我认为美与启发的价值被严重低估了，这毫无疑问。但我想说清楚：我不想做任何人的救世主。这不是……我只是想思考未来，不想感到悲伤。
Chris AndersonBeautiful statement. I think everyone here would agree that it is not… – None of this is going to happen inevitably. The fact that in your mind, you dream this stuff, you dream stuff that no one else would dare dream, or no one else would be capable of dreaming at the level of complexity that you do. The fact that you do that, Elon Musk, is a really remarkable thing. Thank you for helping us all to dream a bit bigger.说得太好了。我想在座所有人都会同意，这一切都不会自动发生。你脑子里敢做这些梦，做出别人不敢梦、或没有能力在这样的复杂程度上去梦的梦——你能做到这件事，Elon Musk，这真的是一件了不起的事情。谢谢你帮助我们所有人把梦做得大一点。
Elon MuskBut you’ll tell me if it ever starts getting genuinely insane, right?但你要是发现我哪天真的开始疯了，你会告诉我的，对吧？
Chris AndersonThank you, Elon Musk. That was really, really fantastic.谢谢你，Elon Musk。真的非常、非常精彩。